This is a Cointelegraph YouTube interview (Dec 15, 2023) where host Giovanni asks Samson Mow why he expects Bitcoin could reach $1,000,000. Mow’s central argument: approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs will unlock rapid, large-scale institutional (and US) capital inflows that, combined with limited liquid supply on exchanges (a supply shock × demand shock), could drive extreme short-term price moves—potentially to $1M—in days to weeks. The interview also covers current demand drivers (family offices buying $3–5M allocations), Mow’s view on ordinals (NFT-like activity on Bitcoin), and comparisons between Bitcoin, Ethereum, and the role of large asset managers like BlackRock.
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$One million per bitcoin. I know that sounds wild, but that is what the bitcoin proponent Samson Mao is expecting to see as soon as next year. The next crypto bull market, he says, will be fundamentally different from previous ones.
I don't believe there's always going to be the same cycle every four years. It's basically supply shock multiplied by demand shock. And that gives you price shock.
In this video, I asked Samson about the rationale behind this price prediction and why this may good moment to accumulate digital gold. Before we get into it, if you enjoy our content, consider leaving a like and subscribing to our channel. I'm Giovanni, your host and this is a cointelegraph interview. According to analysts, the interest from retail investors has been still stagnating despite this spike in price. What is your take on this? What do you think is driving this rally?
So I don't think this rally is a very special rally. This is a rally for ants. So the real rally is when we go to one million and that is when the spot ETFs are approved and we have tens of billions, maybe hundreds of billions of dollars inflowing to Bitcoin in a very short time frame. I'm talking about weeks and or days to weeks. So that is the real rally. But to answer your question, the driver I think for this uptick in bitcoin price movement is family offices and institutional buyers. Maybe not in the US but more in Europe and other places around the world. So what we've been hearing is that a lot of family offices have started allocating to Bitcoin in 3 to 5 million dollar chunks. And this is what is sustaining the demand right now. But I think that's going to change when the spot ETFs are approved because then you unlock the US institutional capital and that has been waiting for a long time to get into Bitcoin.
So $1 million for Bitcoin, you recently doubled down on this expectations for future Bitcoin price. Would you mind to tell us what are the catalysts, the main catalysts that are going to drive Bitcoin to $1,000,000? And what is the time frame you are looking for in terms of Bitcoin reaching this milestone?
Right. So I said it is highly possible that bitcoin does reach 1 million after spot ETFs are approved. So for me, for my prediction, the catalyst is that unlocking of a torrent of capital to pour into Bitcoin in a very short time frame because it also looks like all the ETFs are going to be approved on the same day, if not in a very short time frame. So what you do is you're hitting a very limited supply of bitcoin on the exchanges and available for purchase with a torrent of money. So it's basically supply shock multiplied by demand shock and that gives you price shock. So this is why you can go really high all at one time. And we've seen bitcoin go up 20x in about nine months back in 2016, 2017. So it's not unheard of that bitcoin price appreciates by 20x. I think when you said I'm doubling down, I was critiquing or commenting on Balaji's prediction earlier this year about bitcoin going to 1 million. But his prediction was predicated on banking collapse and money printing. But my theory is that money printing is sort of like boiling the water very slowly. You know, you crank up the temperature very gradually, so it's not a shock to the system. And it takes years for that to kind of permeate the economy and people to understand that money has been printed. 1 million run up with ETFs is a shock to the system. It's not that slow boil where you heat it up gradually. It is cranking it up to thousands of degrees all at once. And this is why I think you can run up to 1 million.
I have a counter argument here concerning your prediction because you were talking about bitcoin potentially getting to 1 million, so 20x from 50,000. You mentioned the fact that that is possible because it happened in the past. But as we know, every cycle the bitcoin appreciates less than in the previous one. So in the last cycle, bitcoin went from around 10,000 to 67,000. Right. So that's like a 6, 7x this time. If we follow that logic, we should have less than that. So maybe 4 or 3x. So don't you think that 1 million looking at from that point of view is a little bit too much?
Yeah, that's a good criticism. So I'm not saying we will go 20x because we did go 20x in the past. I'm just saying there is a precedent for that. But I, I don't believe that the past will predict future. So I don't believe there's always going to be the same cycle every four years. I think that's just a coincidence. But to counter your counter, I think things are very different. This time. When we ran up to 60, 68, 69, there was no major source of new capital. And bitcoin was not ESG compliant. So BlackRock filing is essentially them giving a blessing to bitcoin, saying bitcoin is green, Bitcoin is good for the environment now. So there's these two new things that are at play here. We are, we're now green and there's new money coming in. Before there was not money coming in. And I think it is true, all things else equal, if there is no new money coming in, there's no change in the perception of bitcoin. It will become harder to have that big multiple. But things are very different now because you have a massive amount of capital trying to allocate into bitcoin.
What would be the time frame that you are considering in this 1 million sort of benchmark? Are you looking at like 1 year, 3 years, 10 years?
It's going to be days to weeks, I think. So the run up in 2017 was 9 months to 20x and again without any new source of institutional capital or institutional capital at all. So given that we're going to have billions and billions pouring in all at once on ETF approvals, I think it's going to be a much shorter time frame.
Early this year, sort of new element was introduced in the bitcoin space, which were ordinals. So ordinals, for those who don't know, are sort of NFTs minted on the bitcoin blockchain if we want to simplify how they work. We talked earlier this year and you were saying that ordinals were basically, you were saying that this was not like a permanent trend and that it was just like a hype of a few, few months and then they would have just disappeared. But we are almost at the end of the year and we see that this trend has not gone down, it has been actually increasing. Have you, have you changed your mind about ordinals?
Not really. I mean, the way I look at the bitcoin network and all the things around it is on a very long time horizon. So I said that they're not interesting. I said that they'll probably disappear in a few months and they did for some time and now it seems like there's some new capital coming in and people are minting stuff again. So it's, it's really just like any altcoin project. They have ups and downs and they're quite volatile in terms of demand and interest and it's really just a group of people pushing for adoption. I don't think there's any real usage of it. It's just if you look at ordinals, it's what BSV people, they're building all the software. It's a lot of people from Ethereum and other blockchains that want to do these types of things. It's not really the Bitcoiners that are interested in this. It's just some people saying, you know, this is now on Bitcoin and now it's interesting. But I think I said before in the last interview, they'll move on to something when there's something new because they have to find something new.
You make a fundamental distinction between Bitcoin and everything else. Ethereum was there when I, when I entered the crypto space. Quite battle tested as well. It has been through several cycles. BlackRock which has filed an application for a bit of an Ethereum of a spot Ethereum etf. So from that perspective it seems that it's more like Bitcoin and Ethereum in one basket and then everything else. What do you think about this?
Yeah. Okay, so let's dissect this a little bit. BlackRock is not necessarily a force for good now. I think we have to separate the two things. I think in general I'm excited that they are in and they're giving Bitcoin the credit it deserves as an environmental technology where we can remove things like methane and flare gases through mining. But they're not the savior of Bitcoin and we should not say anybody is the savior of bitcoin. What they're doing is good for Bitcoin but they don't really understand. And I think that is why they're filing for an Ethereum ETF as well. Because they are still in it for the money. Maybe they're going to do some other shitcoin ETFs, who knows? I don't discount that, but I only care that they're doing the bitcoin one and they're doing it first.
Okay. And so the fact that Ethereum has been also withstanding so many cycles up and downs doesn't really mean much for you in terms of making a difference here.
Not really. It's just the best at security, the best at decentralization theater. They were the first to establish that model where we have a Swiss foundation and it's decentralized. But the fact is they launched it as a, almost a security. I think the problem is so much time has passed that the regulators are not going after them. So they're kind of lucky in that sense. And there are other lucky ones too. I mean, what was the other one? Eos. They paid a small fine and they're sitting with billions of dollars. So it's just a sign that the regulatory system doesn't work that well. If you're in first and you're the first to scam, you get off scot free.
So I'm really excited to see if your prediction is gonna materialize. We are gonna be in touch in the next months in 2024, which is definitely gonna be exciting for bitcoin and crypto, regardless of the exact price prediction. But I'm sure we're gonna see some big movements. So. Yeah, Thanks a lot again for being on our show and see. See you next time.
