$10T Crypto Market Cap in 2025? Dan Tapiero Explains

Anybody who's underestimated bitcoin has lost.

So Donald Trump is known for his quite erratic behavior. What if he doesn't follow through on the promises he made to the crypto industry?

No, I mean, look, that's always a risk, but I just don't see it.

A lot of people are saying that.

Ethereum is dead and nothing has proven a better smart contract platform that we've seen.

He's ten Tapiero, a macro investor and the founder of ten T Holdings, known for his strategic investments in major companies like Kraken, Ledger and BitFury. Dan is a leading figure in the crypto space. In this interview, he shared with us his outlook for the crypto market in 2025. This is a video you don't want to miss. Just a few days away from the inauguration of Donald Trump as the President of the United States. In a recent conversation that I was watching with you, you were saying that you were waiting for this moment for your whole life. What if he doesn't follow through the promises that he made to the crypto industry? Wouldn't it be catastrophic?

No. I mean, look, that's always a risk, but I just don't see it. Given the administration, the people that he's brought in, you know, starting with Elon Musk and then of course down at Treasury, Scott Bessant and other people, the Vice president, they've all, you know, they've all said that they're pro crypto. The head of the SEC and I, I presume throughout the government, we'll have people who want to create an environment in the US where companies, businesses, protocols, founders interested in building, you know, whether it's on Bitcoin or other blockchains or doing things within the digital asset ecosystem, whether it's web3nfts, I mean, I, I think they see that that value in the future will be represented digitally and that the United States should be at the forefront of this.

And now I want to talk about Elon Musk. So you are a big fan of Elon Musk. He is going to be part of the Trump's government as the head of the doge. So the Department of Government Efficiency, which is going to be dealing with cutting unnecessary government spending, there has been a lot of concern because if you cut too hard the expenses of the government, that could have a negative impact on markets. Isn't it a concern of yours as well?

No, I think radical efficiency, which improves productivity, is a net positive for gdp. So that's what I suspect will happen if there's some fiscal tightening. Broadly that happens. You know, I think that will end up being positive for the dollar as well and that potentially will allow the Fed to lower interest rates. I see this situation where tremendous capital inflow into the US there's no government that in the world that I'm aware of that is as activist and pro capitalist, pro business proficiency as the US So it should lead to productivity gains which eventually will end up to higher corporate profitability. So good for the market, good for the dollar, good for interest rates going down and then good for long term fiscal sustainability as we bring the budget deficit as a percentage of GDP down.

You are pretty bullish on the US dollar because of Trump, because of this administration. Analysts were saying that the Trump administration could be potentially accelerating the de dollarization process that we have been seeing in the latest years. So foreign governments that are switching away from the dollar as a system of international trade. What do you think about these concerns?

Well, I think bad countries that do bad stuff are worried about holding dollars like Russia, bad guys doing bad things. So whatever countries those are, that's fine. I hadn't really been particularly bullish on the dollar until Trump. I just think broadly speaking a dollar bear market which I anticipated six months ago, a year ago, it's just, I don't think it's going to materialize. So when I say dollar bull market, I mean maybe it's a 10, another 10, 15% rally from here against some of the other currencies. But understand this, the euro is at 102 against the dollar and gold is still at 26.80. So gold is just about at the all time high and euro and yen are near their recent lows. So you know, it's not inconsistent to believe that fiat against fiat, that the dollar can be better than the euro, the yen and certainly the the ruble. But it can be worse against gold and it can be worse against bitcoin, the stable coins. And we're talking about 8, $9 trillion of stable coins that were settled last year or dollar denominated. Very small percent are euro. No one has said that you couldn't have a euro stablecoin. But that market is still really in its infancy. So I think the dollar has taken its place, I mean very naturally at the top of the stablecoin.

You recently said that you expect the transaction volume for stablecoins to overtake visa in 2025. How do we get there?

Well, we're essentially already there. I think visa is maybe 15 trillion or something like that. And I think stablecoins settlement was at 10 or 11 last year. So, you know, four years ago, stablecoin settlement is essentially zero. So we've gone from zero to 10 trillion in a matter of four years. That's a pretty incredible growth rate. I don't think Visa transactions can keep up with that.

Now, talking about other predictions for 2025, you seem to be pretty bullish on this sector of bitcoin defi. So essentially bitcoin locked into smart contracts or uses a collateral for defi. Why are you so convinced that this sector will perform well in 2025?

Well, I mean, that's a good question. What traditionally happens when people buy their first bitcoin? No matter where it is, they buy it and then they start doing some research, they start poking around. Maybe they buy a little bit of Ethereum, maybe they get a wallet, maybe they go on Coinbase or Kraken. Right? Maybe even Gemini. They sort of branch out, they start doing a few different things and then at some point they find this whole world of decentralized finance. And I think one of the problems with the defi world to date is that it just has not had that sort of pristine form of collateral at its, at its center. And facilitating bitcoin at the center of defi. I, I just think is it makes sense. Think about all of the people who are active in Defi. They're, you know, really crypto, I call them degen. But it's, it's really people who are active on all the, the various blockchains. They're swapping, they're staking, they're getting involved in governance. There's a whole world out there of decentralized finance world. And, and up till now, wrap bitcoin, which is really the only bitcoin that can be moved around in defi. It's still a very, very small percent. I think it's, it's maybe 20 billion, which is only 1% of total value of bitcoin. Right. Total bitcoin value today is around 2 trillion. So I'm sorry, yeah, so 20 billion is about 1%. I would think that in the coming years, certainly the next two to three years, as people become more familiar with the D5 rails, that they'll want to move their bitcoin around in some form of rat bitcoin.

I wanted to ask you about your opinion on Ethereum. So a lot of people are saying that Ethereum is dead because of the poor performance in 2024. It has been underperforming Bitcoin for over two years already. Well, it seems that you have a bullish view on Ethereum and you think that Ethereum will come back in 2025. Why do you think so?

Yeah, I mean, you know, I've been positive pretty much the whole way and I said so on, on on Twitter and was bullish at 300 and 600 and when it dipped down to 12, 1300, 3500 or 3300 is a pretty high price. I think it's doing well. I would say Bitcoin and Ethereum are the core assets of the digital asset ecosystem. They have achieved network effect. You know, they have the largest on Ethereum, the largest number of programmers that are working on top of E. It's the most, you know, alive. I mean some people would argue Solana, I think Solana is, is just a little younger. It's trailing behind Ethereum in its development. And if you look at the prices as well from inception, I think what Ethereum is doing is just completely normal. And what Solana is doing following Ethereum is also quite normal. Those are the three I think that are, you know, the core assets. I, Solana is probably transitioning to that. But I mean Ethereum is a very well developed ecosystem. I don't see it'll have its ebbs and flows, but I don't nothing has proven a better smart contract platform that we've seen. So I look, people in the space are just very impatient. Markets do the most that they can do to frustrate the greatest number of people and that's how markets work.

Just a quick final question. Where are we now in the cycle and what is your Bitcoin price outlook for 2025?

We just broke the all time highs of 21, so they were like 68, 70,000. So we broke 68, 70,000 on Bitcoin, then we went up to 100. And I, I said months and months ago and I even said weeks ago that markets like to stop at big round numbers and we're going to spend some time chopping around a hundred thousand. I still think that that's my view. It could be days, weeks, months, I don't know. 100,000 on Bitcoin seems to me to be like the biggest of big round numbers. You know, if you're, if you've owned Bitcoin for a long time or you bought it in 2019 at 7,000, 8,000, 9,000, a lot of people are sitting on very, very large gains here and some of those people will want to go out and buy a new house or a car or do something else, I don't know. So I think you have a natural hundred thousand was a natural profit taking place for many, many people. So I think we're here for a little while. As I said, months of just sideways chopping about and you can feel the angst a little bit on Twitter on X, right? People are like, oh, I read a story today, the book, the bitcoin highs for the bull market are in. So I highly doubt that Amir, you know, 40, 50% rally above the previous highs is the end of this bull phase. I think we're resting here and I look conservatively, I've been saying about 150 to 180,000 on Bitcoin. That's been my sort of conservative view. That would take bitcoin up to sort of like 4 to 5 trillion dollars in value. I think that's a good place. It could overshoot and head up to 250, though. You know, there is a world where it can go to 250, 300. I think in this bull market it would be maybe a little tough for me to see it above that. But, you know, anybody who's underestimated bitcoin has lost. So I don't want to be the guy underestimating bitcoin. My first three funds were called 10T, you know, stood for 10 trillion. And that's the whole value of ecosystem. I thought, you know, we were at 300 billion in the middle of 19 and that we could get to 10 t. 10 trillion. I think we're going to get to 10 trillion this cycle. Right? 5 trillion potentially on Bitcoin, 2 or 3 trillion on the other coins, and then another 2 to 3 trillion on the value of the businesses that are growing up in the space. So I think we hit 10t. The cycle could be at the end of this year, maybe mid 26. And then I think after that, you know, after that move, of course, we'll have another bear market just like we did in, you know, second half of 22, 23.

It was a pleasure to have you on our show. I look forward to talk to you again in a couple of months.

Absolutely. Very happy to do the chat. Thank you so much.

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