$16K Bitcoin dropping to $12K–$14K — Can this really happen?

Hello, everyone. I hope you're having a wonderful day and thank you for stopping by to join us tomorrow, talk about the market report with cointelegraph. My name is Joe hall, and if you're wondering where's Benton gone, who's this English man with a mustache? We're trying things, trying new things with the market report. But what I do have with me today is our resident experts, Marcel Peckman and Sam Borgi. Now, Sam Borgi, as we know, is a business editor with cointelegraph who brings a decade of experience in economic analysis and financial market writing. Marcel Pechmann applies over 17 years of experience trading derivatives options and futures to all these crypto derivatives markets which we might end up delving into today. Marcel, Sam, how are we doing today, dude?

First of all, great to have to have you here, Joe, captaining the show. I'm a big fan of your work out there, interviewing celebrities, going to the events and spearheading the lighting network and Bitcoin's day to day uses. You're a great guy and you're a great addition to the community and we're really lucky to have you here. As for the markets this week, I'm kind of disappointed and hopeful at the same time. First of all, disappointed because of course, we've seen another bankruptcy, BlockFi, but it's a centralized entity. I hope all centralized entities on cryptocurrencies burn and die. We don't need them. But I'm also hopeful that when those things happen, yes, it's unfortunate, yes, some of us lost money on FTX or BlockFi or whatever. It's unfortunate, yeah. But it's a lesson. We need to understand why Bitcoin, why crypto exists and is to get rid of trust, to get rid of centralized entities. So take your coins out of exchange, learn before you lose even more money. So that's why I'm hopeful this week.

Fantastic. What a lovely note to start on. And I can see you've got some of your fans there in the chat. Thank you as well for the very kind words. I'm touched. And yeah, I have been flying around the world, but I'm now at home and I'm ready to, ready to host you all. Sam, how are we doing? Happy Thanksgiving. How was your Thanksgiving weekend? Was it bear market blues or was that okay?

Well, hey, the bear market blues is the normal state of mind in crypto. I mean, we're usually in a bear market more than we are in a bull market. So I feel roughly the same that I always do because this is usually the way that this market operates. Prolonged brutal bear markets followed by a few months or half a year of euphoria. So I think we're right on track for the four year cycle as I've been talking about for a long time. And I've been talking about a potential capitulation event in the fourth quarter. It seems like we're approaching a bottom. I think we're going to talk about that later. But as Marcel mentioned, the bankruptcy of, of of blockfi, you know, the, the issues really came to a head earlier this year when the company was having issues. So for me, the idea of giving up your keys for 5% APY, that ain't it, that's just not it. And I think that we're seeing now why self custody is so important. And obviously I'm very upset with how the market has unfolded. Lots of people have lost their money, I've lost their life savings. But let this be a lesson that not your keys, not your bitcoin.

Right, exactly. And you can always make more money. A little note of optimism there. And I've also worn my silliest jumper in sort of solidarity with the bear market. So, you know, sell your panties for bitcoin, that's all I'm saying. Not financial advice, of course. Now for today's show, you know, we've got these two experts in financial markets with us to talk us through some of the hottest topics in crypto, one of which is of course memes. So we're going to be kicking off with those very shortly as well as a market roundup video that the very talented video team at Cointelegraph has put together. Following that, we'll be talking through some news updates and then the most important segment today, whether or not bitcoin could drop to 12k or 14k, could this really happen? What are the implications? What should we do? Should we be selling all of our chairs? Should we in this instant, do you even have chairs? Following that, we've got a quick crypto tip, we've got Marcel segment which is all going to be about eth trading insights. Eth of course is eth for Ether, which is Ethereum's token that secures its network. Following that, markets pro, we've got a coin watch catch up. And then finally to finish on a high, we've got a giveaway. Now before we kick it all off and get into the meat and the meat and vegetables of this markets probably, please remember to like, remember to subscribe and if you want to chat to us, feel Free to send us any messages. Yes. As Marcel is indicating, drop your messages in the chat. Cool. So, gentlemen. Oh, and of course, 20% off markets pro. There's a link in the description. What does Markets Pro do? Oh, well, stick around and I'm sure we'll find out together. Let's kick it off with the weekly roundup video.

It. Sa. Sam.

There it is, gentlemen. That's our weekly update. I don't know about you guys, but sometimes I actually look for my own reporting in those weekly summaries. Do you do the same, Sam and Marcel, Are you looking for your own sort of reporting in those tweet threads?

It's always nice to get a few.

Yeah. I love to have the editor speak on the Cointelegraph main page. It means that someone else in the Cointelegraph industry has seen your article and said, well, this is relevant. I. I don't know if it's gonna get 30,000 views. 20,000 views. But I think people should be reading that. So I like to be on the COVID page of Cointelegraph, featured on the editor's pick. Sam.

Yeah.

Thank you.

That's you behind it when I'm editor. You're definitely on there, Marcel.

And me too, I hope. Fantastic. That was a little quip to get us ready for our meme time. I'm just checking the chat beforehand to see if we've got any nice comments. Feel free to send us questions. Guys, this is an interactive segment. You can ask us whatever you'd like. What had for breakfast, for example, or if Bitcoin's going to hit 12K. Whatever crosses your mind. Now we are ready for the meme review. The best part of this show, in my humble opinion. Let's kick it off. Okay, here we go. It's another Clown World meme, isn't it? We had no exposure to FTX nanometer. We had some exposure, but liquidity remains functional. We are temporarily pausing withdrawals and then full Clown world. We are filing for bankruptcy. I mean, how many times have you seen this play out stuff?

I love the Clown World stuff. Yeah, this is a good one.

I think the.

The recent Silvergate example, like they said, well, we have some exposure to BlockFi. The next day they had. They said, well, we had 20 million dollar losses and then couple of days later, well, it was a minor loss, but in the overall grand scheme of things, we have over $5 billion of deposit. Dude, you just lost $20 million of clients deposits. It's not an excuse to have $5 billion. You mismanage you should come out and say, you fucked up. We lost $20 million. That's what we're going. Those are the things that we did wrong. And that's what we're doing to prevent it to happen further.

So.

But they're not doing that.

Yeah, I think we're going to have a Crypto Villains edition of this very soon. You know, you have all these guys from Three Arrows Capital now making a comeback, you know, in the wake of the FTX fiasco. So I have a few of these clown world memes, you know, germinating in my head. I think maybe. Maybe next time.

Oh, exciting stuff. Yeah. We do really live in a clown world sometimes. And this is just another example. All right, roll up the next one. We've got Satoshi versus the humans versus financial institution versus the humans again.

Yep.

I mean, this is just more variations on a theme, isn't it, really?

I love this one.

This is good. This is top level emotions, you know, brutality and obviously comical. Right? You know, people going down to Hades in the afterlife and searching for Do Kwon. Yeah, that's where you get the real revenge, isn't it? This is a classic. It's a comment on consumerism and materialism. No, all you need in life is Bitcoin. Lower your time preference and ignore the fiat system. You'll be happier with it. Maybe I'm preaching. What do you think, guys? Am I off my rocker right now?

No, no, I completely agree. That was one of my main messages from the recent Weaves Here conference that I was on, where I got heckled by a lot of the fiat peddlers who told us that we already have monetary policy to deal with all the problems that we have in the system. You know, that's why the central banks lower and raise interest rates. So it's like, you know, if you don't see a problem with the monetary system, there's really. I can't really have a conversation with you because the chasm separating us is too big. So a lot of work to do to educate the masses on the appeal of bitcoin as being the best form of money there is.

It's fascinating, isn't it? You see all these things and you almost wonder, you know, at what point do people suddenly take interest in the world around them and the money that powers the world around them and think, oh, maybe something's not right here and maybe there's a way out. It almost sounds arrogant when you say it out loud because you're like, how is it that I've worked it out, and the rest of the world is still yet to work it out. But it's not, it's a, you know, it's a humility thing as well, because it's that realization that maybe we've got it wrong, which is also quite scary. Anyway. Go ahead, Marcel.

So if you think like, if you are a Brazilian or you're from Venezuela or Argentina, it becomes much easier to understand the power of a decentralized currency, even if its value collapses or has boom and boosts. $70,000, $15,000, at least you understand that you're not withheld by a single government or a minister to decide the fate of the country. So if the free market decides, yes, bitcoin is worth $5 trillion or no, bitcoin is worth $200 billion, so it's down 70% in a year. It's the free market deciding. So if you've experienced hyperinflation like Idaho for a long time during the 80s and the 90s, you understand that it's better to risk with the free market. Yes. I don't know what's going to happen to bitcoin price, but at least I'm not stuck with a single government or a single minister to decide how much money should be printed. So when you live in those countries with hyperinflation history, it's much easier to get in crypto and bitcoin in the afternoon after you understand how decentralization is important. So I think we're too early in the curve. Inflation is somewhat moderate in most of Europe and United States, so maybe they don't need crypto right away. But if you are Chinese and the government is rebelling against you and your app payment. App's not working anymore. So then you understand the decentralization. And so it's not a question about a price you pay, it's a question about necessity. We're too early.

Yeah. Yeah, exactly. Well said, Marcel. You know, people don't realize they need bitcoin until they do. Right. I think that's another one of those memes. Okay. I think the chat's looking clear. From now on, I think there's no. Are there any questions. No thoughts on. In New York State banning mining operations that do not prove 100 source of renewable energy? Oh, I guess that's a question relevant for Sam. No. Are you clued up with what's going on in New York with the banning of mining operations? As long as they're not green. Sorry. You know, renewable.

Yeah, it's, it's, it's all part of the ESG scam. Right? People like to associate ESG as if it has any kind of measurable or meaningful impact on greenhouse gas emissions. ESG is a political ploy, and they're using it to attack Bitcoin. You know, we saw that not beginning, I think, last year. So it doesn't really surprise me that New York is hanging itself by doing this. Fine. You know, the mining operations will go somewhere else, and that'll be used to secure the most secure computing network in the world. So bitcoin miners will always find a way. They'll always find a jurisdiction that's. That's more inviting to what they're doing. So doesn't surprise me that New York is pursuing this. I think it's been germinating for a while now.

Interesting. Interesting. And presumably, you know, if. I mean, I'm heating my flat this winter in Portugal with a bitcoin mine. It's a. It's a bitcoin mine disguised as a heater. So presumably you could still plug that in in New York State, but no one would know, would they? I'm not saying that you should do that, but I'm just saying it's still very hard to police these things. So, you know, read between the lines a bit, guys. Okay, let's kick it off with the first segment. It's all about bitcoin miner capitulation. We've been speaking about this for maybe six months, or at least reporting on it, and we've seen a few heads roll. What are the five things we need to know this week in bitcoin Minor capitulation Bill? Well, first off, you know, bitcoin miners face a shakeout. And one metric warns, as the November monthly close looms for bitcoin. I made a real meal of that intro, Deck. Sorry there, guys. I'll do better now. Now bitcoin prepares to exit a grim November just above $16,000. So what could be on the menu for the bitcoin price this week? Willy Woo described this as unprecedented leveraging. But Willy Woo also called this the super cycle. So, you know, pinch of salts with all of these things. Bitcoin is far from out of the woods after losing over 20% this month. Another dull day in bitcoin land. Now, the impact of the FTX implosion remains unknown. We don't even know if the FTX CEO Sam Bankman Fried has done anything wrong in the eyes of the law. So there's clearly a lot of unwinding to do there as well. But for bitcoin miners. Apparently we are finally due some serious capitulation, or at least that's what one analyst reckons. Now, like others, bitcoin miners are seeing a major squeeze when it comes to selling accumulated bitcoin at a profit. But it remains to be seen how much financial pain the average miner is in. I mean, as I alluded to earlier, it's very hard to actually see through the numbers and actually understand which miners are actually struggling because a lot are obviously private companies. What you can look at is American listed companies, the publicly traded companies, because they are very transparent with the balance sheets.

I think there's a really important point here to show to the viewers is that you cannot generalize the mining sector segment as a single thing. Yeah, they are listed American miners, but there's people mining using natural gas in Russia and Kazakhstan or whatever and we don't know their costs. And moreover, even those American miners, the one that are not listed, if they're not using leverage, if they're not have pledged collateral to buy the equipment, they cannot be liquidated. They're not trading derivatives, they're not trading futures. But the problem is that miners, they tend to be over optimistic and they accumulate bitcoin instead of selling every month as they should have been doing. So their default strategy is to accumulate, wait for the bitcoin to go higher and sell. And this causes additional pressure during periods of bear market when they are forced to sell. Like, yes, we've been holding bitcoin for the past six months. We sold none. And now we desperately need money to pay for electricity or for our employees or for whatever reason for the mortgage cost. So yes, mining capitulation is a risk, but it's not going to happen in a single week. There's not going to be a day that every miner is going to sell well at $15,000. I need to sell everything that I've loaded for the past year. It's not going to happen. So I don't think that's a risk or that's a driver for the next leg down to $12,000 if that's going to happen. So yes, mining capitulation, on my perspective is risk. But you cannot simply assume that every miner has the same cost, as you probably said.

Yeah. And I mean a lot of miners are profitable price levels of 3,000 or $4,000. Right. And you know, given that some mining benefits or secondary benefits are now monetizable, if that's a word. You know, you can make money from minor heats, for example, nowadays, whether it's Heating a pool or drying out beef jerky. There are lots of interesting and fascinating applications of minor heat now. So it's becoming an even more competitive playing ground, as you say. So, yeah, something to watch out for, but it's not going to happen all at once. Now quick question for you, Marcel. William Suberg, very talented markets writer. He also covers on chain analysis and we've actually had a few pieces on this in the past coming in the past days. Helen Parts, for example, she covered today that wallets between 1 and 10 bitcoin are accumulating never seen before. Could these guys be our saviors? These shrimps, these smaller players, the little guy.

Yeah. Danilo, if you can show William Suberg's article on screen about. It's the same article on miners capitulation, but here he talks about under the sea holders accumulate, big or small. The population of the bitcoin ecosystem is aggressively adding to its bitcoin exposure this month. So it talks about the bitcoin shrimps. So entities with less than 1 bitcoin accumulating and as Joe said, entities with 1 to 10 bitcoins having the most added net positions. Well, you, you don't need, you don't even need to ask me or Sam what's our opinion on on chain, but specifically on this case. Thank you, Danilo, for sharing. Why didn't the accumulation of entities with 10 bitcoins or less a positive? Are whales negative to the system? When whales big whales with 100 bitcoins or more accumulating, is that a bad thing? Similarly, if investors think the exchanges are gonna go bankrupt and they're withdrawing coins from exchanges, is that some form of accumulation? He's just changing. Well, I used to leave my coins at exchange. I think the chains might go bankrupt over the next month. So for a moment I'm going to have them on my cold wallet. Is that accumulation? It's the same owner of the coins. So I'm not saying that on chain analysis is irrelevant, as Sam is going to say in a few minutes, but it did not predict the drop to $30,000, nor did it predict the $15,000 dip. So exchanges and centralized entities continue to exert enormous importance and influence in holdings data. So that by itself shows how early we are. Because in the future those large exchanges won't have like 30% of the circulating points, so they have less influence. So right now what drives the on chain data in my opinion, is the centralized entities. So the big holders when they move coins. But I, I'd love to hear Sam's opinion on that?

Well, I think, you know my opinion on on chain analysis, I think on chain analysis has basically zero or close to zero predictive value. On bitcoin's price, we've seen that over and over again. Some of the analysts that you mentioned, Joe, earlier, I'm not going to mention them again. They were utterly wrong in their forecasts, but by using onchain analysis. So for me, on chain analysis or on chain data is more noise than signal. It doesn't provide a price signal. In fact, if you go down that road, you're going to get wrecked. You know, that's, that's your road to reckville. Because everybody who followed the onchain analysts on, on Twitter, they basically were expecting a super cycle. They said prices couldn't fall below the previous all time high. Insert all these other narratives that turn out to be completely false. So I don't necessarily think that on chain analysis in general is completely useless. I think it could tell you important information about how coins are moving, accumulation, etc. I think if we can actually determine that the shrimps are actually accumulating or there's more bitcoin addresses that are coming online and accumulating Bitcoin, that's positive in the sense that bitcoin adoption is growing. And I think that that's a very important thing. We spend a lot of time talking about the whales, the institutions, and they will have an important impact on bitcoin's adoption curve. But also seeing, you know, everyday people, you know, have a bitcoin wallet and actually buy bitcoin for the future at these prices, I think is very useful. Again, how much of that we can glean from the on chain is, isn't always clear. As Marcel mentioned, just the, the overwhelming influence that centralized exchanges have on the data. But if we're taking a look at accumulation, if we're seeing accumulation among the shrimps, those who hold between 1 and 10 bitcoin, that's very positive and I love to see that. Just as much as I'd like to see institutions come on board, I think on the institutional side we're still waiting on regulations. And insofar as the regulatory outlook on holding digital assets remains vague, you're not going to see that adoption level. But for everyday people, the use cases of bitcoin continues to rise, especially as a monetary instrument. You know, bitcoin's use as a transactional vehicle is still in development. I mean, I know Joe, you've done work around the Lightning network reported on that. But as an investable asset class, I think more people are realizing the value, especially in the inflationary environment that we're in now.

Even with low prices, I should add. Yeah, it still has this wonderful future ahead of it, so don't lose hope. Now onto the last piece, which is regarding civil unrest in China caused by Apple turning off airdrop. Oh, sorry. It doesn't say that the civil unrest in China was worsening traditional markets moods. Okay, so is that a risk for bitcoin and crypto in the short term? What do we think, Sam? Is China, are they really going to meddle with what's already a particularly harsh bear market?

Yeah, so we've talked about this quite a bit. We're talking about the correlation between traditional markets and bitcoin and I think that we have seen that significantly throughout the year. I know Marcel has reported on that. Insofar as the correlation between tradfi and bitcoin remains strong. If tradfi is selling off because of China news, and I think anything coming out of China civil unrest is going to rattle investors sentiment around, you know, growth, the economic outlook, stability in the second largest economy. If that has a negative impact on traditional markets and risk sentiment, that could also influence Bitcoin. I think that the correlation seems to have maybe mellowed out a bit of the last few months. I mean, traditional markets have actually rebounded significantly during a bear market rally, whereas bitcoin has been basically down only. So I don't know the extent of the correlation now, but I know that for the majority of 2022, Bitcoin correlation to the stock market has been rather high and that's been pretty negative for the asset class. But I think right now bitcoin and crypto in general face their own systemic risks and I don't know, FTX collapses. That's like as big as it gets. How much worse can it get in terms of bear market influence on bitcoin's price? Right. We saw three years. I know, I know you know, I didn't. You saw Three Arrows Capital, you saw Voyager, you saw Celsius, then you saw BlockFi have issues. They seem to have come back and you said FTX and you have blockfly again. So how much worse can it get? It could always get worse, but FTX going down is a pretty big deal in terms of systemic risks. So.

Yeah, no, it's huge, absolutely huge. I mean, I think we'll all be tuning in to the Dealbook Summit tomorrow. The New York Times hosted talk where Sam Bankman Fried is supposed to be taking the stage among other incredible economic economists like Ben Affleck. So yeah, the clown world never ceases to amaze and surprise people. Marcel, what do you make of this China situation? Could it be a positive for bitcoin and crypto?

Yeah, Joe, I'm going to take a contrarian view here. I think China's situation could be especially helpful for cryptos. For starters, those protesters are getting banned from the financial system, so they're losing access to payment apps. So what are the odds of those people and their friends to look for alternative payment methods? Sure, the primary beneficiary is going to be stablecoins, but that's a starter once the guy understands that he needs to exit the traditional finance system, including fintechs and which we pay and whatever he uses on his mobile phone because that can be blocked and seized by the government, so the better for cryptos. So I still think that in my head, I think gold and stablecoins are going to be the prime use case on tokens. And then after they get censored and banned again and have their coins, their tokens confiscated by government or whatever, they're going to see the value of bitcoin decentralization. But it's a step forward. So I think China's situation in a nutshell is positive for cryptos.

I'm glad you took the contrarian view there. It's nice to have a little bit of light at the end of the tunnel. Okay, let's move on to the next segment regarding regulation. I mean, we've noted this already. FCX and its implosion and how quick it was. It's caused a lot of contagion, it's influenced BlockFi. For example, people are now questioning whether or not BlockFi could be responsible for this recent drop to 16,000. What do we reckon, guys? I thought that BlockFi was sort of a done and dusted deal, what, three or four months ago when it first filed for insolvency or was noted as being insolvent. Now it's finally filing for bankruptcy. Was this expected? What do you reckon, Marcel?

Well, Joe, first of all, I do think that BlockFi was already priced in like the company halted withdrawals some two weeks ago, so everyone knew that the company was insolvent. So moreover, they had a strong relation with ftx. FTX was their savior. They had a credit loan, credit of $400 million or something from FTX. So I do think that the news was kind of priced in. So regarding the drop that we had yesterday, I think it was more of a FUD over the Silvergate and contagion from FTX and BlockFi. But I don't think there's anything substantial happening right now that would justify another drop of 30 to 40% from here. Yes, it can happen, but considering the news that we saw yesterday regarding BlockFi and Silvergate, I think it's done deal. I don't think there's anything that should be new for investors to make the sale or to become panic. But. So I kind of agree with what, what Sam Borgi said. I think it's, it's old news.

Okay, no, no, that's absolutely a fair summation. And again, you know, I just wanted to pick up on what Sam was saying last year about how lots of influencers and crypto Experts called out BlockFi as being the next thing. Don't forget, you know, remember who these people are. Just keep a mental note, you know, whether it's Anthony Pompliano or. I'm trying to think of other big blockfi shills, but, you know, there are lots of people who have made this their, you know, promotion or their promotion campaign. Bear that in mind. You know, don't, don't get caught out again. There's always an excuse to learn in the, in the crypto and bitcoin space. Now the calls for regulation are getting louder as FTX contagion continues to spread. Because who's next? Who's next in line for regulation? Do you think the FTX case apologies will unfold for the next few months? I mean, could this be a saga that continues until mid 2023 when finally the Netflix series and maybe a few books come out about it and they can profit on it? What do we reckon? Sam?

Yeah, I think the unfortunate thing about all this is that those who want to regulate bitcoin and the digital asset space with a heavy hand now have more ammunition to do so? Even though the shenanigans that Sam Bankman freed, that wasn't necessarily a bitcoin related shenanigans, that guy just committed fraud. And fraud is already illegal. Right? So the idea that the guy commits fraud within a crypto context, therefore we should create more crippling regulations around bitcoin is, is a bit ridiculous. And last I, I checked, commingling client funds and using it to issue a loan to yourself to the tune of $1 billion, that's already not aligned with the law, right? So unfortunately nobody really sees it that way. They still view crypto and bitcoin as, as the, as the wild west. So for me, when it comes to something like ftx. As much as I never used ftx, didn't like it, never understood the growth of Sam Bankman Friedman FTX US for example was regulated. FTX was a global household name. It was advancing crypto adoption, it was advancing cryptocurrency or the blockchain space among the mainstream. You had arenas named after the the company. So for me at the outside, unless I was really looking into what was going on ftx, it didn't really look like there, there was this level of systemic risk. I will tell you though that the shenanigans being pulled by by CZ and Binance, that's the mental note that I'm making. The confidence in which he's been speaking lately really reminisces or really recalls to how Sam Bankman Fried was talking a few months ago. So we've seen time and time again these arrogant people in the industry get completely blown up. I'm not predicting anything but for me this entire space really could use a cleansing and it has been cleansed from a lot of the leverage. But I think that unfortunately the downstream effect could be harsher. Regulations. I don't know the future of the crypto sector in general. I know bitcoin will continue to thrive or at least that's my belief. But for me my main concern in the short term is the heavy handed crypto regulations that are going to come. I know that Andrew Yang Lucy talked about that in Texas, we covered that a few weeks ago, so that's kind of my anticipation. But I suppose we'll see what happens.

Yes, check out that reporting of the Texas blockchain and is blockchain mining, Is that what the name of the conference is?

I believe it was, I believe it was.

But it's mostly bitcoin. Let's be honest, they weren't really talking about Ethereum because you can't mine Ethereum anymore. Now Marcel, would you like to give us your 2 cents or 2 sats on FTX?

Yeah Joe. So firstly it becomes clear, at least for me, that SBF Sam from FTX was doing everything possible to keep FTX US separate and clean. How he was siphoning, he was stealing for international clients and venture capitalist deposits and transferring those assets to cover eventual losses in FTX us, the North American operation. Furthermore, Sam was clearly lobbying the police politicians from the inside. I think he was the second largest donors to back to Biden. Sam Trabuco, another made from Alameda or FTX was a major donor to the Republicans and they were so they were donating money directly or indirectly through those VC deals. So venture capitals, so multibillion dollar investments. So I don't think regulation would have preemptively avoided the scandal. Maybe there wasn't with FTX us But as the history unfolds and we get no more details, it looks like the FTX was us, was clean. So I don't think regulation is going to solve. Is not a solution for those scammers.

They're, they're.

Yeah, they keep showing up until people stop trusting centralized entities.

Yeah. And don't forget, you know, the scams of the next bull run are being planned out right now. So they're coming. So better be ready and get yourself, get some learnings down here. For example, check out Sam's reporting about the TechSwiss Bitcoin or blockchain mining conference. And take heed of Marcel's advice. You know you can't regulate bitcoin. I mean you can and it's called a node and you set one up and you regulate bitcoin, I. E. You validate the blocks every 10 minutes or so. Now let's check what the community is saying. I see that someone was unable to send a question based on the US Plan on the Russian oil cap. Could you try and phrase it a different way, Work out a way to get through the algorithm? We're happy to engage with your question, Mr. Vikram. By the way, great mustache. I see we've also got the memo about it being Movember. What would be the impact of the US Plan of imposing a price cap on Russian oil? It would virtually be either you are with the US or with Russia. Oh, I guess you're sort of picking sides here. Okay. The price cap plan is scheduled for next week. Thank you, Vikram, for your question. That's much appreciated. I'm not going to lie. I've spent the past two weeks in El Salvador trying to use bitcoin. I am not actually aware of this news piece. I'm really hoping that my expert panel here of Sam and Marcel have got a better idea of what's going on. Sam and Marcel, help me in, help Vikram out. What's the take here, Marcel? You look like you're deep in thought.

Well, I don't think that the US Picking partners for the oil supply is going to change anything about energy prices. Right now, the central banks over the world, they face a difficult choice. So either they print more money. So let's hand out $400 for each citizen so they can deal with the energy costs and inflation costs for Food and energy, so that's going to add more fuel to the fire. Or they can simply say well bad luck for you. The economy is going down which is good for us, so the prices are going down. So it's either inflation or the growth is going to be harmed. So either scenarios are bad for the economies and we know that. And both scenarios are going to lead to trillion dollar packages which we already know are extremely positive for bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. I don't know if it's going to take 6 months, 18 months, but it's going to happen. The governments will run out of money.

Sam, any ideas for Vikram's idea regarding oil and gas and Russia and China?

Well, I know that the EU basically failed to agree to on a price cap for Russian seaborne crude oil. I think Poland was the holdout. They wanted the actual price cap to be lower. So I mean oil continues to be weaponized as an economic commodity. I think we see that on all sides. How that's going to impact, you know, the economy is yet to be seen. I think right now Europe is still dealing with the fallout of its position on Russia with regards to the Ukraine war. I think that's going to have some potential unintended consequences with respect to, you know, energy security. And that's where Russia is able to perhaps flex some of its muscles. The US I'm not sure what it can do given the fact that Biden has basically shut off the U. S Domestic production of, of oil. I know that US Was the number one producer I think under the previous administration. There's philosophical differences now around greenhouse gas emissions, around clean energy, etc. But they shut down their own domestic supply yet they're importing more from the Middle East. So not really sure how that makes any sense but I'm sure we'll, we'll see the impact in the next few months. As winter comes comes to a head in, in Europe and North America, I.

Can already see the clown world meme being formed. You know, step one, shut off your own domestic supply. Step two, start importing from Middle East. You know, eventually it gets worse and worse. Vikram, thank you for your question. I hope that sums it up for you. Well, before we pass on to the next segment about quick crypto tips, I'd just like to remind everyone that we are still giving away market pro subscriptions. They're worth 100 greenbacks and if you want to just straight up buy your markets pro description, then there's a link in the description just below our three Talking heads. Wonderful. Now let's move on to our, I mean, we've already had lots of crypto tips today, lots of life lessons and, you know, philosophical discussions. But what I'd like to give you now is a quick run through of what high frequency trading is all about, or HFT as it's called. If you're, you know, down with the kids. Let's go through it right now. I think we're going to have a nice graphic on this just on the screen. Fantastic. So high frequency trading is a technique where you take advantage of price changes, so up or down that occur on the order of seconds or milliseconds. Now, the frequency in question is routinely on the order of dozens of trades. You know, these are very smart algorithms at play here and they're far beyond the capability of your regular human trader. I mean, even Chuck Norris, this would out compete Chuck Norris. Now, the only way to engage in HFT is using a piece of software known as a trading bot. You've probably heard all sorts of memes, gifs and jokes on your various social media platforms about how trading bots are making, you know, getting traders wrecked and now you can take advantage of them yourself. Now, the bot monitors the market and based on the given trading logic, it executes trades continuously for as long as it is connected to that exchange. Now, by instituting specific trading logic, HFT can be combined with lots of other strategies. Of course it's trading though, so be very careful. Only play with what you're willing to eventually perhaps lose. And yeah, that's hft, which is all part of the Markets Pro sort of bundle. Don't forget to send us your comments and questions. And yeah, you could win a month's subscription to Markets Pro. Wonderful. Let's get back to the show. And one of the parts that I was really looking forward to today talking about Marcel's trading insights. Marcel, before we get into it, have you ever used a high frequency trading bot? Is that something you've dabbled with before?

Yeah, I've tested some crypto high frequency trading bots. I don't think they work in the long term. I think you can set up work for a few weeks, maybe earn some money, but if you just sit tight and you do nothing over the next couple of months, you're going to lose the money because other bots are going to get faster and stronger than you. Doesn't work for the long term.

Okay, interesting. Well, I mean, that's why you're here, you know, the expert advice. What about your trading insights into the number two coin Ethereum, you know, Vitalik's brainchild. What's going on there?

Okay guys, so a prominent influencer youtuber said that Ethereum could go down to $600. Or some analyst has shown that $400 million liquidations on DeFi applications will happen if ethereum falls below $900. What does that even mean and how should you treat that information? Firstly, no one, and I mean literally no one knows what's going to happen with Ethereum price over the next couple of weeks or months. Surely if we search 20,000 accounts on social media we will likely find someone, some random dude calling for a thousand dollar Ethereum three or six months behind the price drop behind it before it happened. Does that mean that this person has special skills? Or is it the laws of big numbers working as expected? I mean it's 20,000 people giving their random opinion, one of them is going to get it right. So I would not give so much importance to those attention seekers. Those Same influencer and YouTuber have been calling for $10,000 Ethereum last year and it did not happen. Or they were saying that the merge was the biggest event in the history of the cryptocurrency. Well it turns out that it reduced inflation so less Ethereums are being printed every day and had a positive short term impact. But that was fully priced ahead of the event, ahead of the merge. So those that used leverage or exceeded their levels that they are comfortable on holding, they got liquidated or they became eternal bag holders. Remember, if someone could predict the Ethereum price, why would they freely advertise that or even worse, charge you $30 a month for an exclusive Discord channel? They wouldn't. So the best use case for that money those $30 is buy some coins every month regardless of the price move. In terms of indicators, less is more, the simple the better. Do you want an example magazine covers such as Time, Fortune or the Economist. If they are trash talking crypto buy balls dip. If they are profiling the FTX guy or Vitalik as the next Steve Jobs, reduce your exposure by 50% and don't get lost by those 20 or 30% moves. That's natural normal for cryptocurrency. So it doesn't make sense in incipient asset classes to be so worried about a 30% downside. We're too early for that. So either we're going to win big or you're going to lose it all. So pick the coins that you like for the long term.

Spitfire from Marcel there. I mean I think we should call that metric something. You know, Marcel's mainstream media headline metric. How about that? You know, if you see it on the Economist, buy balls deep. If you see the time profiling Vitalik, which they did last year, shave off 50% of your balls. I'm not sure that came out wrong. Right then. No, don't shave your balls. Okay, segments number four. We are coming up with a Markets Pro tip this week. Our newsquake, which is what our highly advanced, highly intelligent team at Markets Pro put together. They are talking about a token called now as we know, or as Marcel very eloquently explained, news is what moves the crypto market. That's sentiment. That's what people are saying on social media feeds in the mainstream media, even to some extent, word of mouth, which you can actually monetize. Now, the News Quick service by Cointelegraph Markets Pro helps traders stay on top of these important developments. We do the hard work so you don't have to. Newsquakes are automated alerts that instantly notify users. That's you when market moving events can happen. Thanks to them, Market Pro subscribers, soon to be you, often beat the crowd to the most important news of the day. For example, on November 21, just over a week ago, a newsquake alerted the Markets Pro community about the partnership between mobile focused blockchain firm Celo and Ethereum software firm Consensys. Now, Celo at the time on 21 November or just before it was trading at 44 cents. When the news went out, the price shot up to 53 cents, a 20.5% rise. So you know you could have longed that you could have bought in spot just before the news and then sold at the top. It's completely up to you. But this is what the news quake is there for and this is what the market's pro team are there to help you through. There'll be that guiding hand along your trading journey if you wish to trade now. The second part is the Vortex Score, which is another very useful feature on the Markets Pro platform. For example, here the token in question is Aleph or lf Im Now a coin's Vortex store is a comparison between its current market and the social conditions in the past. So the current market versus social conditions previously and from that it draws this metric or this score, which in the case of Aleph is now 99. So that's a 66.7% gain. As you might have already guessed, a high score means that the asset's current outlook is bullish for the next 12 to 72 hours. So these are very short time horizons here. We're not talking about Aleph being the world's reserve currency in 10 or 15 years. We're talking about making a quick trade and in and out in the next half a day or couple of days. A Vortex score of 80 is still considered bullish. Conversely, a low Vortex score of 30 indicates that we could be seeing some rocky conditions on the Horizon. So, yeah, 30 and below bad, 80 and above pretty good. Might be worth a punt. But as always, trade with caution. Only play with what you can afford to lose. Now, as the market picks itself back up, some tokens are once again performing in accordance with historical patterns. For instance, Aleph, the token still in question, saw a string of high vortex scores which flashed at the beginning of the week. What does that mean? We know that the high score means that things are looking bullish. So the price of token was $0.06 at the time, but it eventually skyrocketed to 1. Sorry, not $0.01, $0.10, which is an increase of 66.7%. If you put a hundred dollars in there, your hundred dollars is then worth $166. That is maths. And that is what you could learn if you were to subscribe to Markets Pro, which you can win a one month subscription for if you send us a comment today. And if you want 20% off, do not forget that there is a link in the description down below. So please like and subscribe. And oh, while you're at it, feel free to pick up some amazing Bitcoin Crypto Ethereum dogecoin merch from store.cointelegraph.com gentlemen. Marcel. Sam, do you have some lovely Cointelegraph merch at home? I notice you're not wearing it today. I presume that it's in the wash. Is that right? Sam, were you wearing it at the Texas Conference last week?

No, I. I definitely have a shirt and I have the hoodie. I couldn't get the zip up because it sold out in my size, so. And I also was given a hat, which is. Which is awesome. So I'm. I'm all merged up at this point.

Matched up.

I have the. I have the water bottle, but it's so beautiful that my wife stole it from me.

Story as old as time. Is that the. The one that says BTC on it or the one that's the Eiffel Tower or. Which one?

It's a beach. It's like an island or a beach with the bitcoin logo. It's white and orange.

I think that was the Miami editions. No, Sam would be on. Yeah. Okay. Very good. Okay, cool. Oh, I've just received word that we have a winner for today's Markets Pro subscription. I'm told that it's Dustin158, not to be confused with Dustin159. Good. Dustin sent us a Twitter DM to get this, so thank you very much, Dustin. Enjoy your Markets Pro subscription. Trade responsibly and only with what you can afford to lose. It's been a lovely hour. It's just flown by with you guys today. I just wanted to get a quick roundup, get a sense of where we are today, how we're feeling. Maybe some words of advice to those that are experiencing their first bear market. You know, it's okay for it to be your first time. It's also Michael Saylor's first time. Sam, what do you think? Any, any closing comments?

Oh, boy. Michael. Sailor, there's another systemic risk waiting to happen. But no, it's, I've, I've been here for a long time. It's, it's, you know, this is par for the course for a new industry, a new asset class. I believe Bitcoin hasn't changed. I think fundamentally bitcoin has not changed one bit yet. Its price has fluctuated. So because of that, I personally am buying more. I'm not telling you what to do. You can do whatever the hell you want to do in your life. You know, my life, I want to accumulate more bitcoin. That's what I'm about. So I'm using this opportunity to do so because bitcoin has not changed. And that's something that I think people should really reflect on as they go through this market cycle.

Very good, excellent advice there, Marcel. Take it away.

Well, Joe, my advice is if you think bitcoin is risky, just think about what's going to happen with Apple shares, the phone company if the situation in China escalates. How much do you think that the stocks of Apple in the US are going to drop if the production halts to zero in China? It's not something that they can change. Okay, I'm going to produce in India next month. It's not like that. It's going to take at least four months to change everything to set up shop over there. So I think that stock market investors and real estate market investors are facing a tremendous risk right now if the economies collapses or if the socio economic situation changes and looks like we're about to, to experience that I don't know if it's going to happen in a week, a year, but it looks like it's going to happen. So my, my suggestion, I would say for viewers, would be, like, put at least 10% of your holdings in bitcoin. It's not going to kill you to have some exposure, but that's my opinion. Only it's not something that Cointelegraph itself advises, so feel free to follow my thoughts.

Fantastic. Lovely advice from both of you there. And, yeah, you've both been here for a very long time advising people, helping people out along their bitcoin and crypto journeys. And the important thing is that you're still here. You're not going away anywhere. And if anything, what I've learned from you guys is your conviction is even more resolute as the time passes. So, yeah, I want to thank everyone for tuning in. It's been a wonderful show today. Thank you very much for your time and for your comments and suggestions. Marcel and Sam, if I was together, I would be, you know, I'd be applauding you, but this is, of course, remote. I'd love to see everyone back here next Tuesday. And, yeah, stay humble, stack sats, spend sats and enjoy the, Enjoy the ride. Cheers, guys. Have a lovely, lovely day.

Over and out.

Sa.