Arthur Hayes sold his Hyperliquid tokens despite believing they could 126x by 2028, citing competitive fee pressure and large token unlocks that create sell pressure. He's waiting for the protocol to build better defenses before buying back in, while the broader crypto market faces macro headwinds from money printing and Fed policy.
Questions this video answers
2028
126×
About $3 to roughly $60
About $500 million per month (half a billion dollars a month)
$250,000
Chapters
Hyperlook, you could pump 126X. But there is some very serious challenges that this protocol has.
The genius act I think just codifies the leadership that's already in place. Tether, Cirple, Athena. I don't think there's any opening for smaller players.
A lot of our readers were very excited to hear about your new Ferrari.
Man.
When we announced you were coming on the live stream, a lot of our readers were very excited to hear about your new Ferrari.
So I get a text from the dealer and it's like, yo, I got this new car and there's the new Testarossa. And I was like, this looks fucking sick. Can't wait. So when is it available? I don't know. Okay, whatever. What's the price? I don't know. Whatever. Okay. I mean, I'm definitely gonna get one for sure. But like, yeah, it looks sick.
And like, why Ferrari? Why not Lamborghini?
I have a Ferrari right now. I like the way it drives, so why not stay in the family? I mean, I've driven a Lamborghini before. I don't have a strong preference. I'm a shitty driver, so it doesn't really matter.
Shitty driver. Failed your driving test?
I asked. I passed the second time.
Second time I was five times in. You bought it using the profits from the hyper liquid tokens.
Well, I intend to when I can actually buy it. It's not even out yet.
It's not even. Okay. So you sold the hyper liquid tokens to kind of get ready for it only a few weeks after saying it was going to pump 126X. I mean, you know, did you genuinely believe that was going to happen?
I think people.
The bags of it.
I think people need to understand timing and timeline. Right. So my presentation that I gave in Tokyo said by 2028.
Yeah.
Today we are in 2025 that hyperliquid could pump 126x. And so I still believe that hyperliquid has a potential by 2028 to get to these levels. But there is some very serious challenges that this protocol has. Number one, no or low fee competition. Right. So now they've proven that dexs are a thing that retail wants to trade on a dex and big size. Okay. And they charge a rate, a fee rate. And so because it's technology, you know, this is not the first dex. It's not that difficult to build one. Yeah. Maybe the marketing and all that sort of stuff is hard, but competitive is that there's not a big competitive mode. But the perpetual Swaps been around since 2016 and so the customer cares about fees. Very fee sensitive especially and they're fee sensitive and they want a new token. Right. They want the new. What's the new Hyper Liquid? That's what I want. Hyper Liquid. You know it did well but I want the new new Hyper Liquid that's going to go up, you know, 10 100x. Right. So they're very incentivized to find the new platform that's got the cheaper fees, that's got the new token that can do another 10 100x in their portfolio after they get the airdrop. And so it's customer retention is very, very difficult. Of course the overall market grows, which it could by 2028. Yeah, hyperlooker could be very in a good position. But the Ford in the short term when you've got half a billion dollars a month of unlocks potential sell pressure and your buyback is predicated on revenue which is getting undercut by somebody who's offering zero to low fee. Then I'm like okay, well maybe it's time to take some chips off the table. See how hyperlook reforms. Can they figure out a way to defend their liquidity moat and then jump back in afterwards. Right. I'm not losing any. Hyperloops are 50 to 100 and I still think it's going to 5,000 in 2028. But I cut off the 50 to 25 situation.
So this, the genius act I think just codifies the leadership that's already in place. Tether circle, Athena and then maybe some fintech players like Facebook or X or these companies who will issue a stablecoin by law will be mandated to purchase treasury bills which will essentially give, you know, trillions of dollars of buying power at the hands of Besant to issue very low cost debt to these issuers who then will pay it out to their holders. I don't think there's any opening for smaller players unless you have a large existing client base or tie it with some distributor who has a large existing client base. I think it's a futile attempt to attempt to buy our way into this ecosystem.
Time's ticking on the Bitcoin 250k prediction. Yeah, I mean are we still going to get that?
I think so.
I think we're in a bit of weakness. I think it's going to be interesting to see how the US 10 year trades versus fed funds. If you take a look at the chart Since September 17, the 10 year has rejected the Fed cut. Tenure is up 14 basis points. I don't know what it is now since the cut and which one's right are equities, right? Because I pulled out my Bloomberg, NASDAQ and S and P were up on the day. Bitcoin is down, which one's right? Equities are bitcoin. Gold's up so but gold doesn't care about the short term Gold saying I got central banks around the world who want to get out of the dollar so I'm going to be good gold and silver, right? And I've been suppressed for so long so it's not really worrying about whether or not the 10 year rejects the Fed or not. But we're at this critical junction in equities. Which one's right, bitcoin or equities? I don't know right now but I do believe money printing and I just got off stage talking about how Trump and Besson are going to take over the Federal Reserve for the next 12 months is going to accelerate and that's how we get to this $250,000 possibility for a year in bitcoin.
Are we going to get a explosive altcoin season?
We had a very exposed altcoin season. It just depends on which we're in. Hyper liquid did very very well, right? From $3 in a listen to whatever 60 that it got to. But obviously most new issues have been very, very ripple. Is ripple above $3? It's close, right? Like that's insane. Ripple is a piece of shit again. It's up there, it's crushing it. Right?
But I think as well people want to know are all the ships going to rise again?
I don't think so. I think that we've gotten more discerning in terms of how we allocate capital. We're not just giving money to a team that put up a website or a team that put up a paper or a team that does a farm, right? We're saying I want real users who pay real money and I want that money to go to me as the token holder. If you don't do those three things, I am not buying your token. If you're playing VC FTV games like most of these tokens, I am not buying your token. And that's what we've seen. And there has been an alt season but not in the most of the dog shit that's out there.
If global liquidity started falling, specifically if the United States changed its stance to the trajectory of credit that they wish to issue to re industrialize the country, if Japan started to reduce their money supply if the European Union member countries started to want to run balanced budgets and commit to austerity. So, in short, the global politicians decide that they want to restrict economic activity and stop printing money. I think the change in administration in terms of whether the market is comfortable or confident that they're going to continue to print money, let's say that in 2028, when the Democrat in the United States who comes in and who is very anti whatever Trump did, which basically means expanding the money supply, at least initially, then I think the market could freak out and send crypto and all sorts of other risk assets that are based on credit creation much lower very quickly. It.
