Bitcoin BULL vs. BEAR: Will It Crash or Hit $150K?

Bitcoin is making headlines again after soaring to a new all time high. But where do we go from here? Is this the start of a major breakout or the peak of the bull market? We asked two Bitcoin OGs, Scott Melker and Mike McGlone, to break down the catalysts behind this latest surge and share their opposing views on what comes next. One bullish and one bearish.

It's a risk and on rally Giovanni and bitcoin is one of the leading risk and on assets. So I'm kind of concerned about that, that bitcoin's running on route borrowed time.

Mike McGlone is one of my favorite people on the planet. I think he's incredibly intelligent. But I think we fundamentally disagree on what bitcoin is and what bitcoin is in context of the rest of the crypto market. Blue sky breakouts are a dream for traders. When something makes a new all time high, you generally expect continuation to the upside.

Let's get started. Bitcoin breaking through its previous all time highs a couple of times. I think that the record new all time high now is around 123,000 if I'm not mistaken. What is your general impression of this move? Were you expecting it or not?

Yeah, I think this move is very, very obvious. This is one of the few times where we search for narratives and don't really need to. Everybody wants to know if it was politics or if it had something to do with infl or tariffs. But the reality is this is one of those simple cases of economics 101 where there's more demand than supply. Right. We can see very transparently exactly who is buying bitcoin and we know that there's not enough sellers to I think absorb all of that. We have crazy inflows from the bitcoin spot ETF setting record by record every single day. Seemingly we've had back to back billion dollar days of inflows. We're averaging over 6 or 100 cents that 6 or 100 or 700 million dollars a day in inflows. And we had a 15 day streak with one day off and now we're on another nine day streak. So that's a ton of buying. Then you have Michael Saylor buying seemingly a half a billion dollars to a billion dollars worth of bitcoin every single week. And on top of that we now have the proliferation of these bitcoin treasury companies which seem to be raising a billion, two, three, four billion dollars on a weekly basis, also buying bitcoin. That's Just too much buying for an asset of this size for the price not to go up.

For now it's a risk and on rally, Giovanni. And bitcoin's one of the leading risk and on assets. So it's doing what it's supposed to. With the stock market being up on the year, it's up what, 26%, but gold's up 27%. And this is the same problem I've been pointing out for almost a year now that I'm concerned about bitcoin and all risk assets. Gold's outperforming the US stock market and outperforming bitcoin and certain pace certainly on this year's basis. So I'm kind of concerned about that, that bitcoin's running on route borrowed time.

Talking about in general like what's moving also the stock market, the macro that is serving as catalyst for these moves. Can you talk a little bit about that, about the macro factors that are behind these movements?

Well, it's the same trend in the US stock market's had since most notably since the bottom in 2009. There's only been two down years since then. That was 2018, 20, 2022. They were really bad years for bitcoin. It's just this economic expansion and pretty substantial fiscal stimulus spending that's keeping the stock market boosted. The problem is earnings have started to decline, tariffs are sticking in. The market might be getting a little bit delusional at these levels. And that's what I'm seeing from gold. You know, gold's been the record setting asset, up almost 30% this year. And S&P 500 some up almost 7%. So the bottom line to me is the US stock market has to go higher partly as tariffs will probably be a major tax on earnings and consumer spending. The big risk, Giovanni, the biggest risk for all markets is just a stock market. US stock market starts giving back a little bit. We're at 2 times GDP. There's only time 2 times in history that are really relevant examples of what happens when you get to the stock market cap at two times GDP and of course the highest versus the rest of the world. That's 1929 US and 1989 in Japan. Now it's great we have to keep the stock stock market element. But that's the number one reason that this risk asset has highly correlated the stock market, most notably the crypto index. Crypto. The whole market's very highly correlated to stock market. Stock market's going up, so it's going up With a higher beta, that's the key thing. Joe Bonnie the stock market has to stay up for bitcoin and cryptos to stay up.

Mike McGlone is one of my favorite people on the planet. I think he's incredibly intelligent. I think we fundamentally disagree on what Bitcoin is and what Bitcoin is in context of the rest of the crypto market. See, I think Mike just views Bitcoin as another risk on asset like any in your portfolio. And so he believes that if markets inevitably go risk off, which they always eventually do, and as he'll point out the metrics say they should, then Bitcoin should basically lead them down. He calls Bitcoin a leading indicator all the time. So if Bitcoin heads down, watch out below for stocks. I think that Bitcoin is a non correlated asset. I've always said that of course there are times when it behaves like other assets, but it doesn't tend to behave like them for very long. I think that what I described before really explains why Bitcoin would be going up regardless of what the macro situation is. That said, there's a famous saying that markets can remain irrational much longer than you can remain solvent. There's a lot of reasons to believe that we should have gone into a recession by now, or that a depression should be coming, or that markets are completely, completely untethered from reality. But the fact is, for whatever reason, people continue to buy, people continue to be bullish, and we're going into a period where there's probably going to be more liquidity and not less, which generally buoys risk assets. So right now I think Bitcoin has its own very positive narrative and keeps saying that a recession is coming, a depression is coming, that debt to GDP is too high, the stock market is trading at much higher valuations than historically. That's all true. It means that eventually a recession will come like it always does, or a correction. But right now you do what the market's telling you. And if it continues to make new all time highs, blue sky breakouts are a dream for traders. And when something makes a new all time high, you generally expect continuation to the upside.

A question regarding the tariff policies that are being still, are still at the center of the debate when it comes to Trump, Trump's administration and in general like the its policies. Are those policies having any impact on the the stock market and consequently on Bitcoin?

Not yet. What's the thing they did earlier so early in the year when the stock market dropped almost 20% bitcoin dropped 30%. There's your correlation. It goes down with the stock market, it goes up with the stock market. It's a leading indicator. And now we're seeing 50% tariffs on copper, 50% tariffs on Brazil. My point is again, US stock market has to keep going up and that's the number one thing that matters. And bitcoin could be a leading indicator, but the tariffs will continue. The Trump administration, people should not underestimate this man. He was in exile for four years. He had this focus 40 years ago. He got a second chance. He's not going to mess it up. We will see significant tariffs and a significant attempt to rebalance the economy, rebalance global trade, where the rest of the world just says they want free trade. Let's look at deflation in China, the number one significant exporting economy in the planet that's facing severe deflationary forces. Their PPI, their latest PPI number on a 312 month basis down 3.6%. So I'm fearful the whole world will follow that. And that's why the main pillar, the final pillar for everything to say elevate is that US Stock market stay up. What's a good leading indicator for US Stock market?

Bitcoin this week, I believe was labeled like the crypto week in the US how bullish are you on those bills? Which one, according to you, has the best, the most impact on the market?

I think that obviously crypto week is a huge priority for the Republicans. But the expectation, and by the time this is probably published, we'll have clarity, is that the Genius act, which has already passed the Senate, will pass the House as it stands and will be signed into law by President Trump. Those kind of institutions aren't getting ahead of this unless they believe that obviously they're going to have the legislative clarity that they need to go ahead and create those things. So Genius Act, I think is a foregone conclusion. Effectively Clarity act, which is market structure, is much more complicated. It not only speaks to what's a security and what's a commodity, but it also talks about what behaviors exchanges can participate in. I think all of this speaks to the fact that we moved from a contentious relationship with the government, who is outright trying to kill the industry, to literally the wet dream of, of bitcoiners in the crypto industry, where anything you want to do can get, can get done. So I think that it's a very bullish environment.

A lot of people are probably looking now to our channel, to other channels to find out whether this is like the top of the run or if they miss the train or if there is still like whether they should get in the market now or better sell. So according to the cycle, the general cycle theory, we should be approaching like what is usually the final months of the bull market as far as I understand. So we know that also in the winter months the market moves more than in the summer. So perhaps some people are expecting further upsides coming in the next months, in the autumn before the end of the year. Do you expect, as far as I understand, you do expect more upside. But let's try to find out more or less what is your outlook in terms of price by the end of 2025?

200,000 wouldn't surprise me at the end of the year, although I would think 150 to 175 would be a more reasonable target. That said about the cycle, I was a big believer in the four year cycle, but you can't really be a big believer in the four year cycle anymore if you actually take a genuine look at the data. Right. Also, bitcoin preempted the all time preempted the four year cycle by making an all time high much earlier. After the ETFs, it's continued to make new highs. It's pumping during the summer when we would have expected basically. Downside, I think that this is a different asset. It's much bigger. We're playing in a very different market. It's now been institutionalized. It's part of the stock market for better or for worse. And so it's going to behave more maybe like a macro asset. That doesn't mean it's going to trade the same as them, but I think it's going to behave more like one. A little less upside and downside volatility and will kind of be more dependent on global liquidity and general kind of flows and market.

Back in Q1, Bitcoin was down about 30% and the S&P 500 was down about 20%. The Bitcoin historical, the 16 quarter correlation of Bitcoin to the S&P 500 is about 0.7. The beta is about three times. That's just a fact of history. When people tell me it's going to change, I'm like say good luck with that. And that's the key risk is if you're buying bitcoin at these levels, you basically have to expect US stock market to continue to go up. It's a very highly leveraged beta position based on the stock market in history. Maybe it's changed. I doubt it. No, I didn't say crash. I just expect normal reversion at some point. And that's why I still think bitcoin could drop 50, 60% in a normal correction in the US stock market. That stays down. It's way overdue. And again, it's July. So by the end of the year, maybe I have to. Maybe you can come back and remind me how wrong I was in a few calls. But the key thing I still point out is gold should continue to outperform. And I stick with gold.

Outperform.

If the US stock market start shows in weakness, Bitcoin will probably lead the way. It's a leading risk asset on the way up, and it leads on the way down.