Bitcoin continues consolidation: Are we still in a bull market? | The Market Report w/ Ran Neuner

Sam foreign.

Hello friends and welcome to another episode of the Market Report. I am your host, Benton. All around the globe today, we welcome you to our show. We are joined by our resident experts, Jordan Finisath and Marcel Peckman. John Jordan uses his background in psychology and human behavior to spot emerging trends in the crypto markets. And Marcel applies his 17 years of experience trading derivatives options and futures to the crypto derivatives markets. What is up fellas? Wild week in crypto. Here we are again. What is happening? Marcel and Jordan, how we feeling this week, guys?

Benson I'm still shocked. I'm kind of amazed that Ethereum is finally decoupling from, from Bitcoin. We're gonna talk about that later, but it's starting to show some maturity. That market is finally starting to understand that not all crypto assets are the same. So I'm pleased with that.

Yeah, we saw if coinbase actually listed E 2.0 already on their their chart tracker. So the world seems to be gearing up to get ready for E 2.0 launch and we'll see if the dominant starts actually picking up a little bit. So I'm curious to see how this plays out for the future of Bitcoin as well.

Yeah.

And if you are tuning in today, tell us where you are tuning in from. We are super happy to have you on today. We're going to be getting into some awesome, exciting stuff. I know we have a awesome guest today, Rand Muir and we're going to be able to chat with him about his insights about the overall market and we're going to give you a market recap video. Our one of our producers made an awesome video that's going to walk you through the latest nuggets on Twitter, the news, what's happening in the crypto space and then we're going to be able to jump into Jordan's expert takes say about an extended market cycle. You want to stay tuned to make sure you find out what Jordan has to say about that. If you didn't know, we're giving away a one month subscription to Markets Pro, our premier trading platform here at Cointelegraph. We're going to be giving that away, so make sure you are chiming in on the chat today. We want to hear from you, tell us your comments, ask us some questions. We're going to be stopping periodically throughout the show to make sure that we answer all your burning questions. So pop them in the chat and we're going to be picking one lucky winner today. And if you're just Interested in markets pro 20% off in the description below. Make sure you are liking and subscribing coin telegraph on YouTube. We're here for you. Thursdays, 12pm it's the market report. Why not tune in, make sure you guys are jumping in to the chat today. We want to hear from you. So we're going to start out today with our market recap video. So let's go ahead and jump into that. Thanks. Danilo.

Foreign.

That weekly roundup makes me want to move around. All right, loved it. That was great. Let's get into some market news. This week you saw some of the biggest tweets of the week. What's been happening in the Twitter sphere? Bitcoin drop. When was that? Friday night, December 4th. The night to remember for bitcoin. What's going on with this guys? Marcel, what are you seeing in the markets right now? Why did this happen?

Well, Benton, people usually say, ah, that's because of liquidations, too much leverage on the market. But leverage per se is not the leading cause of crash. Usually the leading causes is a crash is when there's for example, excessive optimism. And suddenly people realize that, okay, yeah, inflation of 6% in United States was the biggest in 30 years. But is it going to cause markets to crash? Is it the end of the world?

No.

So the day that we saw the 6.2 inflation in states was the exact date that we had the market top. So people created some unrealistic expectations and that what caused the press.

I'd like to quickly appreciate Luciano training in there. Very looking HD today. I appreciate the comment. Marcel's point though. It seems like inflation, is that a concern, Jordan? Is that like affecting the overall bitcoin markets right now in a good or bad way? What are you seeing?

Oh, inflation is definitely concerned how it's affecting the bitcoin market. I don't know. Like there's a lot of money out there sloshing around. It's finding its way into the crypto market. But again, I've been saying it all year. Everybody's like, Bitcoin's going $100,000 by the year. I'm like, no, it's not. Everybody's saying it. And there's a perfect time for them to come along and be like, let's just dump it on everybody. They think it's going to go up, so we're going to dump it down, get some billions of dollars worth of liquidations. Right. Like again, let's just go back to when all these like derivative exchanges or these exchanges launched their derivatives it happened after they cracked down on ICOs and like, damn it, we can't make money. So they launched all these derivative and margin trading products so that they can make money. So they're designed for the exchanges to make money, people. That's how they make it now. So every once in a while we're going to get these big dumps or pumps just so they can wreck the shorts and, and screw the longs. So it's par for the course in crypto, people. Just stick it for the long term.

Yeah. I'm going to pull up this article from William Suberg on our, on Our team here. 2.5 billion liquidated across cryptocurrency in a mass route which sends bitcoin price action back to the end of September. So, like in these kind of resets here, let's pull up this chart real quick. I mean, look at this candle. This is just. Oh, that's a heavy, heavy red candle. We're sitting right around 50, under 55, down to 47 and even went down to 42.5, the end of that wick there. I mean, does like, does that give you all any pause whatsoever when you look at charts like this, Marcel, like, what is your take? Is this, is this an area where we had to flush out that leverage in order to continue keep moving forward?

But I'm not so much about concerned about the price. Whether it's 55, 50 or 45. For me, it's exactly the same in the long term. But I'm more concerned with the market fundamentals. For example, during the crash, like two or three hours after the crash, the futures markets premium, which is the comparing the December and March contracts to the current spot price, they were back to a healthy 7%. So if the fundamentals did not recover after the crash, that would worry me. For example, tether in Asia, when markets are hot, tether trades at the premium to the US dollar. When markets are bearish, tether trades 5% below versus the dollar. And right now the discount is only 2%. So I'm not seeing a bear markets. The fundamentals are good, the structure is good. So it doesn't worry me.

Jordan, what would tell you that we're in a bear market? I don't want to bring that up because I personally don't think we're there. But like, what are some signs that might tell you that we're heading towards a bear market?

I'm still waiting for that big blow off top. Really, like, we got to get this exit. Like bull markets don't end in doldrums, they end in like exuberance and we haven't really gotten there yet. So I, I still think that we got a ways to go in this market and like what this really talked about, like I'm always talking about taking your profits and stuff like that. I'm all now I'm gonna start to like put in those low bids on exchanges, man. Like kid, I scooped up some 43000 Bitcoin if you just had an order in. Of course you have to have side cash to do that. But it, it makes it worthwhile to like put in some low bids on exchanges after seeing this happen numerous times in the crypto economy. But yeah, I don't think we're in a bear market yet again. I'm waiting for that blow off top. What else could signal it? Yeah, there'd have to be probably something in the wider world like Covid v like 100 that's just gonna. Just decimate the world or something. I don't, I don't, I don't know what's going to send us in the bear market actually. I'm not too sure.

I want to quickly address Kale RN Milan question. Do you believe that D5 sentiment right now is fading? And if yes, why I'm gonna jump in with this one and say no. I, I think we talked about this on pre show. Is the different niches inside of crypto right now with NFTs, metaverse, D5 starting to kind of show that they're, they're a little bit uncorrelated in some respects. I think Defi itself is still tied heavily to Ethereum and kind of the performance of overall of what that token does. But I don't know if there's going to be a massive blow off top in regards to Defy over the long term. I'm curious to hear either Jordan or Marcel. Feel free to jump in here and address this question too.

I don't think the Defi sentiment is necessarily fading. I know it kind of got overshadowed more than anything by memes and NFTs and the, the earlier DFD5 ecosystem is really based on Ethereum and when those fees started going up, like people, most people can't use it. So now, now that Defi is spread out to Avalanche, Phantom, Solana, all these other networks, it's, it's getting its, its mojo again. But again NFTs have been such a, just like a spotlight, like just blinding or shadowing overshadowing a lot of the other things I think that those, those other sectors are just kind of taken over the headlines especially in the wider mainstream market.

Yeah, I don't see any data showing that the decentralized finance is fading away either by total locked value or by decentralized exchange volume. It continues to grow.

Yeah, I believe the D5 total value lock just hit a new all time high right before, maybe right before this downturn. So yeah, it's not going anywhere.

I mean the incentives inside of Defi, I think is, is what will keep people there. The, the high apys, the staking yields. Because in the long run price in some of these projects should not dictate your, your long term yield. So in my opinion, I think for the long term, you know, Defi is, is in a good spot. I do want to pivot us though to some recent news about Evergrande. Here we are talking about another Evergrande headline. Fresh panic over Evergrande appears to have limited impact on crypto markets. Is this a good thing? Is it a bad thing? And then for those who aren't, you know, who aren't familiar with Evergrande, like Jordan, can you, can you walk us through what is going on with Evergrande and why is this such like a big deal right now in the market headlines?

Evergrande is one of the biggest property owner developer in China. They're actually one of the biggest, at least foreign investors in property in both the US and Australia as well. And they've pretty much just ran out of money. They take money from people up front. So people would order a apartment or something, they'd collect 10, 50 on a lot of the money up front. Then they use that money to build out the, the projects and stuff. But they've run out of money whilst they still got tens of thousands of people that have ordered new places in China specifically. So yeah, they're bankrupt basically. They can't, they can't and they have this big large bond market and they can't make good on their bond like their bonds and stuff because they have no money to operate. So basically the Chinese government looks like it's kind of assumed subsume them taking it over, it's going to try and manage it. I don't know. They seem like they've, they've done a better job at managing the collapse of Evergrande than they did here with Lehman Brothers or, or the problems back in 2008. But it's not, yeah, it's gonna affect the markets. There's more, more likely the, the investors outside of China are not going to get their money back. The government's trying to make sure. The Chinese government's trying to make sure they keep money within China or at least build those apartments and stuff. But I don't know, it's. It's kind of a cluster F and we'll see how it turns out over here. Is it going to really affect the global markets if it continues and it makes the whole Chinese retail or housing market fall? It could definitely spread around the world. But yeah, what's up, Marcel?

Yeah, and remember Jordan, that even North American and European banks also lend money to Chinese companies. So yeah, there could be some contagion, but I don't think it would be that relevant if it's one or two Chinese property developers.

Yeah. And we're like the world's stuck in a like all kinds of moral hazards here. They're just printing money in the US and China. Like at what point do they. Is somebody going to come in and put the foot down? Like, no, we're not doing it anymore. Nobody wants to be that bad guy. But if eventually are there, somebody's gonna have to do it or the world's gonna be like, you know what smack it's like, yeah, we'll see.

What something I found interesting here is I want to pull up the ETH BTC chart real quick to show this to everyone. And I thought this was, it was pretty fascinating. When you take a look at it, we see the trend lines, these yellow V WAP levels and then this blue line right here almost following this ascending wedge line up. And just like ETH kind of has taken off here when in comparison to bitcoin. And so when you're looking at this, this is like mid November and then heading into the crash, it's like of December here on December 4th. Like ETH dominance is looking like has been going up and it broke through this ascending wedge here. So I guess when you all are looking at a chart like this, what are, what are the biggest takeaways that you get when you're looking at a daily chart versus Bitcoin in ether? Jordan?

Well, to me that just shows that bitcoin or Ethereum is gaining strength against bitcoin and it has a lot more value proposition. Bitcoin's gonna been pigeonholed into this store of value. I know they're trying to put smart contracts on it and whatnot on top of it. But like the real explosive growth of what's going to happen in the future is how is happening on platforms like Ethereum that are trying to become the new Internet, not just a store of value. And investors are starting to see that. So we're getting institutional investors come in now they're looking at Bitcoin then they're looking at like what's the future hold? Bitcoin is just going to be a store of value, whereas Ethereum has a whole ecosystem of promise.

So bar, so what do you, what do you get when you look at a chart like that?

I think it has more to do with Ethereum 2.0. It's going to be a deflationary or not an inflationary asset and there are some staking involved. So it's changing what Ethereum used to be to the new Ethereum. So it's attracting more investors that were previously on Cardano or other staking coins. That's my view.

Very good. Well, that is going to do it. For our market news this week we dove into some evergrande stuff overall Bitcoin market sentiment. And now we're going to shift into our guest interview for today. Randuner, you're going to want to make sure you stay tuned for this. Don't forget to keep chiming in in the chat. We're going to be giving away a one month subscription to Markets Pro. We want to hear from you today. So make sure you're chiming in on the chat, ask us your burning questions and maybe we might even ask one for Rand today. If you chime it in, 20% discount is in the description below. Make sure you are subscribing the Cointelegraph on YouTube. So let's go ahead and jump in with Ran the man. All right folks, we have Rand Nuner here. He is one of the most recognizable names in the world of financial technology. He has made his name as a co founder and global CEO for Onchain, a blockchain investment fund advisory service. In 2017, Rand launched crypto Trader, the world's first televised cryptocurrency show. Featured on cnbc. He has been voted one of the most influential people in Africa by Time magazine. He is also the host of popular YouTube channel Crypto Banter which has over 500,000 subscribers. Rand, how are we doing today, man? What's going on?

I'm doing fantastic. I'm doing fantastic. Just excuse my green background. My software is not working so you're gonna have to suffer the green backup.

All good man. Thanks for jumping on the show today. Yeah, I know we, we're going to dive into a lot of different stuff with you today. I don't know if you're able to, to pull up any charts or anything. We would love to maybe dive into just gathering your thoughts like we, I, I do want to kind of touch on this first though. On December 2 you said that bitcoin is ready for a breakout. Less than 24 hours to a breakout. How did you know something was about to happen? And tell us I guess kind of your insights.

So I was 50% right and 50% wrong. So I knew there was something that had to happen because we had been following the chart, we had been following the wedge that bitcoin was creating and we were expecting a breakout. Now we expected the breakout on the Friday because of the futures closeout. Now I thought it was going to be a breakup, not a breakdown. And the reason for that is the stock market took a hit a few days before that. But on Friday it started to recover and I saw the stock market recovering. I said, oh, bitcoin needs to recover now. And well, it didn't recover because later on that night we got the Fed coming in and saying that they were going to taper. And then we had, we had some omicron news and you know, the combination of all of that obviously took bitcoin the other way and we got the third fiercest correction that we've had the whole year.

You saw the leverage shakeout. Was that in your opinion like the biggest reason why we kind of had that huge slide?

Yeah. Well, if you have been following our channel, you knew that we thought that there was way too much leverage and we didn't believe the bitcoin rally. And at one point we even questioned crypto quants accuracy because we just didn't see the leverage being shaken out. Every time we checked the charts, the leverage was, kept being shaken up. I don't know if I can share screen here, let me show you. We were following. Let me just quickly get, get a chart for you guys and I'll show you what, what we were following. Hold on a second. Let's see if I can call it up for you guys. So we were following this chart over here. I don't know if you guys can see my screen.

Yep.

Okay, so let me just sign in quickly and you guys can have a look at it. So we were following the all exchanges leverage ratio and it just kept going higher and higher and higher. And no matter how much bitcoin's price was coming down, the leverage ratio kept coming higher and higher and higher. And we thought that maybe the data was inaccurate because you can see that the price actually started going down. Roundabout here, which is way before that. And the leverage just kept increasing and increasing and increasing. And then when we saw the shakeout, we saw exactly what happened. Now we don't have any precedent on this chart because if you look at the leverage shakeout in May, which is the one that happened here, you can see the leverage, which is the blue line, reduced quite a lot relative to where we are today after the shakeout. The difference is that in May, in May shakeout, we didn't have Bitcoin futures ETFs. And I'm suspecting that Bitcoin futures ETFs naturally increase the leverage in the market. So I'm not sure that we've actually had all the leverage shaken out. And I've actually been saying that we'll probably go down one more leg before we start going up again.

Those fast moves can often catch people off guard. What do you recommend for people in times like these? Corrections.

Look, I think that there is a reasonable chance that we're going to get another correction. When I say another correction, I don't think we'll retest the lows of 42 or 43, depending on which exchange you looked at. But I think we are going to have a little bit of a sideways and maybe slightly down market before we go up again. But the big thing here is that I think that the bitcoin price is deceptive at this, at this point. And I think that the bitcoin price has reacted to multiple macro factors as well as an over leveraged market. But I think if you look under the hood of the bitcoin price, you'll find that the market actually has some signs that show that we're actually quite healthy. And I'll go through some of the signs with you. The stock market has fully recovered and is about one to one and a half percent away from all time highs. So no more volatility, no more stock market panic. Omicron has really become a non event. People have realized that Omicron is a cold at best and the data supports that. There's been no hospitalizations and no deaths. The market has shaken off the Evergrande default, which I'm actually quite surprised about. But it seems that the market doesn't really either factor it in or is completely shaking off the Evergrande repricing the bitcoin dominance. If you guys look at the bitcoin dominance and I'll call it up for you guys again here. So you look at the bitcoin dominance, which to me shows confidence in the market so the bitcoin dominance is now at 40 and it's retesting, retesting levels. I mean, if it drops below 39, it's probably the lowest that the bitcoin dominance has been all year. And that's kind of showing you in situations where markets are truly nervous, then the bitcoin goes up and people put all their money back into bitcoin. That's not happening now. So you look at this and it's showing you that the bitcoin dominance is going straight down. Then you can call up another chart which I think is also telling a story, and that is the ETH BTC chart. So if you look at the ETH BTC chart now, you can see that it's actually broken some critical levels. You can see it's just broken through the line and it's on a breakup. Now if the market was panicking, the ETH BTC chart wouldn't look like this. So I think that the bitcoin price is responding and bringing the market down with it to this correction. But I actually think that underneath the hood we're seeing a whole lot of signs that actually the market is pretty healthy.

So, Ren, you've talked about Ethereum and my question is, do you think that Ethereum over the next couple of years could lose the number two spot contender and which are the best alternatives in your opinion? And why.

Do I think Ethereum loses the number two spot? Very difficult to say. And I'll tell you why. I think that Ethereum becomes a settlement layer for multiple Ethereum layer 2s. And we're seeing it now with Zksync, with Polygon, with ZK rollups become a game changer in terms of scaling technologies. And if these layer 2s get significant adoption, and I think today is a big day because of the Polygon zk. They're having a Polygon ZK day today. They've already made one announcement where they've made an acquisition at $400 million of a company called Mirror. Now if Ethereum can successfully become a settlement layer for multiple layer twos using things like roll ups, then maybe, maybe, maybe Ethereum maintains the number two spot. If not, then I actually think it becomes Solana. And I'll tell you why. From a pure technological point of view, Solana is way better technology than Ethereum. It's faster, it's time to finality is much quicker than Ethereum. It can handle the scale. And of course critics are going to say, well, it's not decentralized enough and it's not evm. And you need to learn how to use Rust to code on Solana. And those things are all true, but I think with enough time, Solana does look like it's gaining that kind of network effect.

Yeah. So I know on your show you've talked about, you've sold off part of your ETH for Solana when it comes to, like, measuring the metrics behind a lot of these new blockchains is transaction speed and finality. Are those the two most important metrics?

No, they. Absolutely. So in terms of a blockchain performance. Yes. How much load can it handle and what are the fees when you get to that load? I guess that that becomes the measuring factors, but that's not how I make my investment decision. So you referenced that I sold a whole lot of my ETH into Solana. I then further sold some of my Ethan, put it into other layer ones, things like Avax and some of the other ones. The reason is what I'm doing there is I. I think that the way the market works is it depends where you want to invest. Typical retail investors will come in at the end of the market and they'll invest following price. So price goes up, price goes down. They'll make their decisions based on price. Slightly more sophisticated investors will look at metrics like transactions or maybe TVL or maybe active addresses, and then they'll say, look, if the TVL increases or the active addresses increase, then that should bring the price to increase. Great. More sophisticated investors will take one step back and they'll say, where is the venture capital money going? And they'll follow the venture capital money, which ultimately leads to more dapps being developed, which ultimately leads to more tps, which ultimately leads to. To more tvl, which ultimately leads to more active addresses, which ultimately leads to price. The smartest investors will actually just follow the developers. So the idea is to try and follow the developers. And the metrics that I'm looking at are metrics such as GitHub deposits and any type of metric, which shows me that developers are moving to blockchains. And we're seeing a lot of developers move to blockchains like Luna, for example. There's a very, very, very strong developer ecosystem moving to chains like Luna. The smartest developers in the world are moving to arweave. Not a lot, but they're moving to arweave. The mass of smart developers are developing on Solana. And so I'm starting to follow the developers because the developers will lead to VC money. The VC money will lead to more DAPPS being developed, more deaths being developed will lead to more active addresses, more TVL and then ultimately price. So I'm just following the, the food chain, but I'm going backwards.

And explained how the, the market stayed, got some momentum, still building. Do you think that we're headed into a longer market cycle than the four year cycle or are we starting a new cycle over what do you think?

So I think that crypto people have a bull and bear market mentality, right? Like crypto people have this, hey, if it's not a bull market, then we're going into a bear market and it's got to be a bull or a bear market. Now let me ask you a question. When was the last time that there was a bear market on the stock market?

Never. I was thinking about this earlier today.

Hold on. So the only reason, the only reason why we are conditioned as crypto people to think about a bull market or a bear market is because we've been through three cycles. We went through 2013 and 2013 was a bull market and a bear market. Then we went through 2017 and 2017 was a bull market and a bear market. And so we're making this assumption that we're going to get a bull market and a bear market in 2021. And we're also making this assumption around cycles. Now the difference between 2013 and 2017 is it was the beginning of a technology cycle, right? So you think about 2013 and 2017. 2013 was all about bitcoin and it was about the first decentralized blockchain and the higher expectations of what it could achieve in a shorter period of time that it could never achieve and it was bound to disappoint and it crashed. 2017 was the same cycle, but it was for altcoins. So bitcoin started coming to its own. But the explosion of 2017 was actually old coins. And then the disappointment was that they couldn't achieve the disruption in that period of time, in a short period of time. But let me take you back to the NASDAQ and let's talk about the Internet bubble of, of, you know, the 1990s. When the Internet bubble collapsed in 2001, we didn't have bull and bear markets. We just had a gradual bull market which was a function of a few things. Technology and disruption is one of the things. And the second part of it was just money printing and inflation. And so I think that this mentality that we have of, because we always have a bear market and this PTSD that most of us have because we were here in 2017. So we have, I mean, you know, we all have PTSD that says when the bear market comes, it's going to be bad and it's going to be long because that is what happened in the previous ones. But in other asset classes, for many, many, many years, we haven't had a bad long bear market. So I think that we may see a very different market. And I think, I think that this market is slightly overheated, but I think that we'll have multiple corrections. But we'll just continue to grow. I think we'll just continue to grow. Like the stock market. If you take the stock market chart and I'll actually show it to you, if you allow me to share my screen again, definitely I'll show it to you. There we go. So like that's the stock market chart since COVID And you know, if you kind of zoom out and you remove Covid and you just keep, you kind of keep zooming out, what you realize is that you just have just a bull market with multiple small, quick corrections. You look at the COVID correction, it started in March and by November we were at higher highs. So that's not a one year or a two year or a three year bear cycle. It's just multiple corrections that shake out leverage, shake out overheated environments. But ultimately we continue to grow. And I think that that's what happens now with blockchain because I think that the technology is really getting adoption and disruption and when that happens, it's kind of illogical for you to have adoption and disruption and then still to have a one and a half year bear market like we had in 2017.

A lot has changed, I think.

So there's a lot more development going on than 2018. There were not so many V things that we have right now. And speaking of that, you are really influential in Asia as I know and you speak to a lot of investment companies over there. So I'm kind of want to pick your brain on what are the difference what, on what they are seeing, what they are investing compared to European or American investors.

I think the Asian. So I think the. Let's separate American and European investors because you can't actually put them in the same level. American investors are hamstrung by regulation. So you speak to an American investor and the questions that they ask you are like, okay, where are you regulated and how do you comply? And is there any chance to me that's you're out of the game? European investors are investing in narratives. Asian investors are in my opinion one step ahead. And specifically I say Asian, I mean Korean investors and that cluster of investors they, I found are one step ahead in terms of narratives. They were talking about metaverse 12 months ago. They were talking about gaming 12 months ago. And those are the narratives that the American and European investors are fomoing into now. They were talking about scaling solutions six months ago and now there's a whole investment thesis around scaling solutions. So I think that they are ahead of the curve and for them it's a case of they are buying into mass adoption. Things like mass adoption, gaming. You use Axie, but Axie is just one example. Metaverse plays, etc. I think the benchmark for that kind of investing is obviously hashed. Hasht is the, I think one of the biggest funds in Korea, one of the biggest investors in Korea. And I think they kind of setting the trends.

So what are some of the. I think, and I also appreciate anybody from the banter fam that is tuning in today for the market report. But like what are some of the maybe top three projects that you are keeping a very, very close eye on right now?

So we don't look at projects, I mean, you know, to, to talk about specific projects. I think there's 100 great projects out there doing great things. I think we're focused on narratives. So the first narrative that we're focused on right now and we started, we've been focused on this narrative for a long time, but specifically in the last 30 days is Luna. And there's a reason for it. We've been calling Luna as a buy since last year this time when Luna was trading at 35 cents. Today Luna is trading, I think $75 and it keeps breaking new highs. And the reason for that is because there are multiple narratives that are playing into Luna's hands all at once. And I'll walk you through them. The first thing is the whole Metaverse narrative and the fact that the US is clamping down on stable coins and dollar back stable coins and there's regulation. And so we think that in the Metaverse there'll be a new type of money and the money won't be backed by, by USDT or usdc. Just my view on USDC and USDT is that without doubt those are securities. And I'll explain to you why. You know, if, if an item derives its value from a basket of other items that fluctuate in value, then that item is a security. Now, USDT openly claim that they invest in multiple Assets, including corporate bonds, debt, etc, etc. If that debt collapses, theoretically the value of the USDT coin should be less than a dollar. Okay, so with that in mind, there's no doubt in my mind that USDT and USDC are actually securities. And maybe they will be and maybe they won't be over time. But what I think is going to happen is that there's going to be for Metaverse, there's going to be a magic Metaverse money. And that magic Metaverse money is not going to be backed by US dollars because we don't want it to be backed by US dollars. So I think that who wins at that point is ust and I think maybe, maybe magic Internet money do too. But I think UST wins that battle. We saw it now with a correction. When the correction happened, all the stable coins lost their peg except US T, which is actually not backed by US dollars, which is. It's unfathomable that algorithmic money would have held us a peg better than stablecoin money. It's unfathomable, but it did. And it just shows that we're moving to a world where astute investors are saying the US dollar is worth shit anyway. I'd rather just buy this magic Internet money. And it is what it is. And so ust, there's the UST narrative, this decentralized money narrative that is not backed by USD. And then you've also got a Dex, which is launching on Luna, so on Terra. So you've got Astroport, which is a new Dex like a Uni Swap, which is launching this next week. I think they're launching it. And when you introduce a DEX to a ecosystem which is based on a non dollar backed money is made for defi. I mean at the center of Luna, of Terra sits anchor protocol, which offers people 20% for depositing these USD. So you get this whole narrative and you say obviously Luna is going to explode in value. So that's one narrative that we're really, really, really following at the moment. And we're investing in multiple projects on that narrative. So we invested in Kujira, we investing in the Launchpad, which is I think Starterra. We investing in Orion Money. And Orion Money effectively allows people to invest their USDC and USDT and earn 20% using anchor protocol. So we invest in multiple investments within a narrative. So that's the first narrative that we're really investing in. The second narrative is ETH layer 2 scaling and particularly roll ups and preferably ZK roll ups over optimistic roll ups. But we have Made some investments in optimistic rollups. Things like Boba was a good investment of ours in optimistic roll ups. And we're constantly looking for places to invest in ZK rollups and I think there's going to be multiple of those coming out pretty soon. So that's the next narrative. Another narrative is we're expecting a Cardano explosion early next year.

Why?

Because the first Dex is out on Testnet and you know, Cardano struggled to get smart contracts and everyone thought, hey, Cardano's got smart contracts now everything will just explode. And that was in August or September. But that's not how it works because when you have smart contracts, you can build the Dex. Once you build the Dex, you can build a whole defi ecosystem around it, which you can't really build unless there's a Dex. And the first Cardano Dex went on to testnet on Monday, which was Sunday Swap and now we call it Monday Swap because they launched one day late. So Monday Swap, Monday Swap is now live on Cardano and multiple other Dexes will start to form. There's going to be ADA Swap and a whole lot of others that are going to come online. And in January you're probably going to see a whole lot of these functioning Dexs on Cardano and that's going to be the uniswap moment for Cardano. And when that happens, then you're going to get multiple defi projects and you're going to see the lending protocols come out and you're going to see a whole lot of these and you're going to see TVL start to be locked in Cardano and then that will start a Cardano narrative. And that I would say will probably happen around January or February.

Excellent. I do think we have one last question for you here. Jordan or Marcel, did you want to jump in here?

I think we should focus on on the gaming area, which is always a request from our viewers, which I'm not a big fan, but I understand that Run knows a lot about. And what are his picks outside of Axie in the gaming points.

So interestingly enough, we have just started a show on banter which is called in the Game. It's a show that happens every single day and every single day it is done by. We have a resident gamer. His name is Hassel. Hassel is a gaming expert. So he's, you know, I'm not a gaming expert like he is. He plays all the games, he understands all the games. He's been looking at multiple picks. One of them is Thetan Arena. So Theta arena is by far the biggest game now, the biggest blockchain played game. It's growing very, very, very fast. And the gameplay is much, much nicer than playing Axie. Like much, much, much nicer than playing Axie. It's Also on the iOS store so you can download it as an app. That's one other things I know he's been looking at UoS, which is the gaming launchpad, so to speak. It's a place where, where multiple games can list and you can go and download your game from there and they get, and they get a commission on every game. So that's called Ultra or us. So I think that those are the two picks that he's been looking at. But you know, that said, there are hundreds of games now which are launching and as I said, we have a show on banter every single day and that show is all about all these gaming tokens. It's called in the game super edition to the family, actually.

Excellent. No, this has been super insightful and I'm sure our audience has enjoyed hearing from you. This is Rand Nooner, folks. It's been a pleasure having you on. Hopefully we can have you on again. Thanks for joining us today.

Anytime, guys. Thanks so much.

Thanks, Rand.

Awesome.

Cheers guys.

That was great. Awesome to hear from Rand the man himself, you know, you heard it from him. He's, he's dabbling in a whole of lots of things in every single field inside of crypto, it seems like. We appreciate everybody that's that's tuned in today. Make sure you drop in some comments because we are about to select the one winner for the Markets Pro subscription here. I think we're going to be getting into Jordan's expert segment here next, followed by our Markets Pro segment. So let's go ahead and dive into our Markets Pro coins to watch this week. All right, folks, big week in crypto. We saw some movers, we saw some shakers. One of the coins that we watched for our Markets Pro segment is one inch. And if you didn't see one inch, our newsquake alert was able to catch it. For those who aren't familiar with news quakes, they're automatic alerts that instantly notify users when events happen that move the market 1 inch got boosted by news of the Binance US listing. So you see that small red circle there at the bottom? That was a newsquake indicator. That white line shows us price. There was a 6% jump, 6 1/2% jump when the token 1 inch moved from 2.74 up to 292. This was one of our biggest movers this week. 6% is not bad in this downturn of a market. I'll take that all day. So for those of you who don't know what 1 inch this week and didn't catch that newsquake, you got in for a nice little ride there. The other token that we saw this week had a nice solid surge even in these inclement climates for crypto was Tezo. So Danil, if you want to kind of pull that up. Vortex score time. For those who aren't familiar with the Vortex score, it's a comparison between current market and social conditions of those in the past. High score judges off of historical data, the assets current outlook is bullish. The next 1272 hours. You see that first circle? That's the vortex score. That green line 87. However that that movement for Tezos didn't happen for nearly. It looks like about 50 hours after it hit 87 for the Vortex score. So it shot up from $5 and 30 cents to $4 the next day. Huge jump. And that's the power of the Vortex score. You want to have that in your pocket. And that was Tezos. Huge jump with the news this week with a lot of that. So yeah, that was our Markets Pro segment. I know Jordan's got a lot to talk about today regarding extended market cycle. So make sure you're tuning in 20% discount on the description for Markets Pro. Chime into the chat. We're going to be giving away our Markets Pro subscription today and let's make sure that you are chiming into the chat. We love to love to hear it. Let's get ahead and and start with Jordan.

All right.

All right.

Kind of. So as Rand Nuner was talking about earlier following the recent market downturn and inaccurate prediction by Plan B, a well known stock to flow model creator, I'm more convinced than ever that we're actually witnessing a lengthening of the cryptocurrency market cycle. Or maybe we're not even going to have these ups and bare bare bull market cycles. It's going to kind of be the extended bull market cycle like Graham was talking about. And we're kind of moving away from the four year period that was highly influenced by the bitcoin having cycle. If I'm gonna. Daniel, could you pull up my screen real quick? Just kind of go over this article real quick. It was showing his 4 model. I think he predicted 98000 by the end of November potentially as he had gotten correctly in August, September, October, November came, didn't hit. We had this recent downturn in the market that just pushed Bitcoin down to 42, 000. And because of that like we had a lot of people, you can, you can bring it back to Neil. Thanks. We had a lot of people that all year long were expecting this hundred thousand dollar Bitcoin price but now we're down in the 50000 range. But as Randy we're saying there's a lot of support in the market. The fundamentals don't look too bad. So it, it seems like the market cycle is lengthening again. We had projects like Luna as mentioned before, other projects like uos seen their tokens jump up to new all time highs amidst this downturn or shortly after the downturn which to me speaks to strength in the market while bitcoin's still trading sideways. So we haven't gotten that blow off top that we've expected to see in December and the market is just extending. And if I could pull up, let me bring up this bitcoin dominance chart. Yeah.

Yeah, real quick. While you are pulling that chart up, I, I do have a question regarding like the recent consolidation that, that we saw. We touched on this earlier. Like how big of an impact could bitcoin's price have on some of the other sectors, the NFT, the metaverse, the D5, if at all.

So I don't see the drop 25, we're calling now consolidation. Just so I understand correctly, you're saying that consolidation is a 25 drop.

If you're looking at the previous, previous bull market cycles where it was like an 80% drop, like 25 of consolidation. Yeah, I would say that. Right.

It's pretty safe to say.

Right. So we're looking at this Bitcoin dollar chart. Obviously like the beginning of 2021, Bitcoin had that run up. At the end of 2020 it's like yeah, we're going up to the all time new, all time high. And then just throughout the whole, the beginning of this year to the middle of the year, bitcoin dominance fell. You had D5 take off, then you had NFTs and memes take off. So yeah. And then, so we waffled the, the, the market correction. We got into like late middle of September. This wasn't a lot of the hype about bitcoin ETF was coming out. So bitcoin started pumping, pumping. Then everybody's like what? It's a futures etf. That's bunk. Memes came back to life from. It's been dropping down and if on the other charts you can see as this has been dropping, Ethereum has been going up. So the whole idea of bitcoin being the only thing in the market that matters to me, you can. Thanks for sharing that Danielle is. We're kind of beyond that. As as Manning explain we're seeing these different sectors evolve. Whether it's stable coin focused platforms like Luna or Metaverse token platforms and like or layer twos like Polygon. We're just seeing a whole different evolution of the whole market structure. And again we didn't get the blow off top. Like everybody was expecting all year long of a hundred thousand dollar bitcoin in December. And to me that speaks to the fact that the whole micro cycle is, it's lengthening out into 2022 and we could see like a five year cycle or even longer and the whole four year cycle narrative driven by the bitcoin happening is, is losing its, its for its moment or its sway on the market. Yeah. Marcel. Nope, you're muted.

From what I understand you're saying that you're pretty confident that the bull run is not finished. It's probably going to take a little bit longer. But what makes you think what are you so sure about that?

Well, let's look at some of the big headlines we have. Whether it's Visa announcing that they're offering bitcoin blockchain consulting for merchants. You got the, the big thing on Capitol Hill yesterday where people were doing sand blinking, feeding all these people and like it wasn't horrible. It wasn't like they weren't beating down on bitcoin the whole time. It was actually like a constructive conversation. So we're seeing some growth in that respect. Let's see, their Fidelity is going to be offering bitcoin back loans through Nexo. Like Fidelity is one as one a large institutional player. Like to me these show that the, the larger adoptions are coming and because of that it's almost going to put more of a floor under the whole market and not allow for the. I don't know if we're going to see another 80 bitcoin correction in my opinion, unless we go from like 50,000 up to $200,000. And it's like okay, that got a little hot real quick. So. And that's like in a week. It's like man, yeah, big corrections coming in. But overall, like I was saying, I, I thought about that exact same thing yesterday. I'm like when was the last time the whole stock market had a bear market. I'm like, that don't happen. So as the whole crypto ecosystem expands, we get NFTs over here, we got D5, we got Oracles, we got Metaverse, that's spreading out all the, the wealth of the thing. And it's not all just going to tank, especially if it's not all trading against the bitcoin pair when the bitcoin price falls. So I, we're not going to see these big massive bear markets necessarily. And if we do have some dry powder on the side, because that's a good time to accumulate, in my opinion. In my opinion.

I was gonna say I thought it was interesting what, what Ran said. He's like, we're just, we'll maybe have these like slight upticks, but it is a totally different land landscape than 2017, 2013. So many institutions are getting involved. There's so much VC money and I think there's more money sitting on the sidelines right now that could potentially flood in in 2022. I'm still long term bullish and heading into the, the Q1 for 2022. So like Jordan said, you know, if you have the dry powder, get ready because I think there will still be in store for a few dips along the way. But yeah, that was awesome. Insights today regarding current market cycle. Where we could be going next? Is it going? Valuable, valuable insights today. I see a lot of people chiming in on the chats over here talking about the guest segment. Institutions looks like are buying. All the pro athletes that are getting paid in BTC will need to get paid soon. Very interesting point there. Well, I do want to wrap things up today with our closing comments. So, Marcel, I'm gonna hand it over to you first. Do you have any closing thoughts for today's show?

Wait, we gotta pick it up. So we gotta give away.

Oh snap, we forgot who we gotta give away. Markets. Pro giveaway time.

Sorry, sorry, sorry.

All right, first let's pick the winner here. Then we'll get to our closing thoughts. Who do we like in the chat today? Who was the most excited to be here? Hit it. Let's see it. Let's see those comments.

I like. Wrong again. Because that person's always commenting. I like that. I like their level of engagement. They actually talked about me specifically today. You know, I like when people talk my name, so.

But who is this?

Let's look.

Who is this?

Wrong, wrong, wrong again.

Yeah, I saw them chime in the whole, the whole show. We got a winner.

Folks, I've seen them chime in for several weeks now, so.

That's right. Loyal, loyal listener and viewer. We'd love to see that. Wrong again. You are our winner today. Send us your in your Twitter handle here in chat. We're going to reach out to you personally from the cointelegraph social account on Twitter. Thank you for, for tuning in today. We appreciate everyone that tuned in Wrong again. I saw them chiming in all day today. So let's get to our, our closing thoughts today. Marcel, closing thoughts for today's show. What do you got?

Okay, Ben, so if you are into altcoins, if you're big into that, I would recommend you to diversify. For example, let's assume you are a big Avalanche fan. You like the technology, you like the ecosystem, you like the developers. Okay. You can get like half of the money and spread out to Solana, Polkadot, Algorand, Cosmos, Phantom. So in that sense you're going to keep your exposure to Avalanche and to the smart contract sector, but with lower risk because altcoins are already too volatile. So if you spread out into multiple coins in the same sector, it's a good idea to diversify if you are beginning altcoins. What do you say, Jordan?

Yeah, I'd agree with that. For diversification is really the name of the game here. It's. I don't like bitcoin maximalist because I think they're too located in one thing. I don't like Maximus of any sort. I like to kind of open ourselves up to this emerging technology. So there, there's a lot to, to, to digest here. Take some of that advice that Rand Nooner gave in earlier. The market, I don't think we're going to have a huge correction. So like over time, dollar cost averaging, I fall back on that all the time. I'm happy that I took, I've been taking some profits like especially after this recent downturn. I'm like, man, that made me look smart, right? So yeah, take your profits, dollar cost average, diversify, hold some of your money in bitcoin Ethereum. None of this is investment advice by the way. This is just my opinion. And yeah, don't, don't let the fear get you. This, this is a long term bull market cycle. We're headed up over the long term. So yeah, just stay, stay positive.

All right, real quick shifting gears here. Wrong again. Has looks like they want to defer their, their prize today. So we're gonna, we're gonna pick another winner. We're gonna pick another Winner for the Markets Pro. Send your comment. First person to send their comment in right now will win the one month subscription. Let's, let's go ahead. And first, first comment wins. That's, I mean, that's it right there. First comment wins. Ready? 1, 2, 3, go. 1, 2, 3, go, go, go.

Like a 15 second delay, right?

Yeah. All right, so you have 10 seconds. First person to comment. We'll win this subscription and take home the Markets Pro subscription so that you can have the power of Markets Pro in your pocket. You don't want. Let's see, who is it?

I like that. I like this guy. I like Brown. Oh, nope, this guy won.

Lawson White is our winner. All right, shoot us your, your Twitter handle. We're gonna give you the prize today, the one month subscription. We appreciate everybody for tuning in. We have a huge audience now. We're growing week by week. We'd love to have you here. We love chiming in and interacting with you folks. Hopefully you enjoyed our guest today. Super good information. Gave you some alpha on Tara today. Just saying we appreciate everyone joining. Make sure you like and subscribe. And subscribe. Coin telegraph on YouTube markets report. We're here on Thursdays 12pm until next week we will see you. Thank you for joining.

Sa.