Bitcoin's technical charts show bearish signals with support levels between $3,600 and $3,150, and a potential drop to $2,200–$2,500 if $3,150 breaks. On-chain activity and LocalBitcoins volume suggest underlying user demand, complicating the bearish picture.
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Looking for lower levels in $ BTC we as well on a technical analysis are looking for lower levels in BTC dollar especially medium term or even a bit longer term. We're taking this from our technical analysis on the Ichimoku clouds there you can easily see that it is still in a bearish sentiment then secondly we think that the capitulation has not happened yet which is the last phase in a bear market. There is not enough blood on the street. Some will call on the other hand some people would say November 2018 was the capitulation. We don't think that has actually happened yet. We think that the recent low of 3150 will be the level to watch. Currently we are in the accumulation zone between 3,600 and 3,150. We're looking to break the 3,150 and then see a sharp correction to the downside till 2,200 2500 levels if we get there. We need to see how it feels if this was really the capitulation or if we gonna see then as well further pressure to the downside. But our desired scenario would be that we bounce sharply off the 22002500 level back up in the accumulation zone and then most probably attack further resistance levels to the upside. Also on BTC$, we are watching the funding levels which gives us some sort of warning signs that there is a shift in sentiment. Those funding levels turn from very negative shorts have to pay longs to more positive. This could be a real sentiment change and the market might see short term a spike higher. But it remains to be seen if this is actually feeding through. You see the same scenario on the term futures on Bitmex where they trade in backwardation but not as aggressive as we have seen in the past. And last but not least Ethodollar we're still watching those MakerDAO liquidation levels currently at 9395 where we see about $2.6 million around 25, 27,000 ether contracts could get liquidated if we get there. This is the weak spot in the market and usually traders will attack weak spots and then they do it till it breaks. On the rotation report side there has no changes been made. We still see MacD on the Bitcoin side pushing in positive territory but we lost a bit of steam then on the MACDS for the ranks 2 to 10 and 11 to 50 they're still in a bearish mode and the advanced decline line, the purple one is still well below the 0.5 level.
There are two main levels of support as far as bitcoin is concerned, which are 3,005, sorry, 3,000 and about 5,500. So here's the 5,500 mark, which is broken down in December, right? And we can see that this was a, you know, has a historical relevance too. That 5,500 held up the price during the bull run. It also, in February when we had the massive drop, it kind of acted as a support level as well. And we have another key support level which we're testing at the moment, which is $3,000 per coin, right. And we can see as well here that this historical level was tested in the bull run. It took two months of 2017 to pass through it. Once it did pass through, it tested it back as a support before carrying on towards the moon. So now we're testing that level of support once again. Now here's, here's the fun part. If we take a look at this bear market, right, this declining prices, we can also draw ourselves another, another point which is a resistance line. And let's say we draw it from around here, the highs in December and we put it all the way down to where we're touching now. So this, this pattern in general is called a descending triangle. And this is a very bearish pattern. You have a psychological level of support and then you have a more natural curve down in the markets. And we can see that the last time we came to a point here, we did break to the downside, which was in December. And now our triangle looks like that, right? Very simple. We have a psychological level of support and then a natural res. Natural resistance here. So whenever we're talking about technical analysis, we have to realize that past performance does not indicate future results. All we're doing is looking at what happened in the past to try and determine a pattern. And that can sometimes give us part of the picture which is, you know, what's most likely to happen or what's more likely or less likely. But it certainly doesn't tell us what's going to happen in the future. So just because this is a bearish pattern doesn't mean we can't break out to the upside, which is certainly, certainly a possibility. What I believe at the moment is that we have a great disconnect between the technicals and what's happening in the chart and the fundamentals, which is what's happening in the news and what's happening in the network. So we're seeing the transaction rate of bitcoin is right now at a 12 month high. And we could see that at the beginning of the year in February, it was around two and a quarter transactions per second. And all throughout the bear market, continuously it was rising. And right now we're up around 3.85 transactions per second for Bitcoin. So the real use of bitcoin, and we can confirm that as well, when we look at the volumes, let's say, on local bitcoins, you can see that the real use cases where bitcoin is needed most are rising steadily. On the technical charts, it does look pretty bearish. But if we ignore that for a second, okay, let's say, let's say this does play out right. Let's say it does break down below 3,000, it's not a problem because we can find more support further down 1,300, 1800. So certainly levels that have played significant places in the past. But if you're trying to think as let's say a five year investment or a ten year investment, many of the big analysts in the market are saying right now is the accumulation time. If it goes down, great, you can accumulate more at greater prices. But if you're doing a strategy like dollar cost averaging, buying the dip, this is the place to do it.
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