Bitcoin Major Rally "Coming Soon" (75% Odds) | Alessio Rastani’s Outlook

The people were saying that we're already in a bear market because of timing cycles. They're saying forget price, it's all about time. Now. The time cycles wrong, wrong, wrong. Before a bear market has been accompanied by a blow off top, which is shown by price acceleration, price acceleration or extreme acceleration. Guess what? We didn't get that in 2025. There's only a 25% low probability of the price action dropping even further into a bear market.

Foreign. People are really confused about the situation right now. We don't know whether we are in a bear market or still in a bull market. You put out a very interesting video not long ago where you were analyzing a key technical metric that people should pay attention to. It's the death cross. The death cross was hit on November 15th and you were basically saying that because of that signal there is a 75% possibility that Bitcoin will rally higher in the time frame of one to three months. Do you still stand by your assessment?

Yeah, basically my point in that video was that we looked at every example, so we looked at every instance of a death cross signal. So there was a death cross Signal when the 50 simple moving average crossed below the 200 simple moving average there. The gray white line went below the green and we can see it actually signaled the bottom on bitcoin almost very close to a bottom as we can see there. And then the price rallied in the next few months. Sometimes it rallies immediately, sometimes it takes a bit longer. But generally again in the examples that I found, let me show you one more. So this chart from 2024 shows that there was death cross there. And you can see soon after the death cross signal there market was about to bottom. And I remember so many videos usually come out when there's a death cross signal saying oh, it's the end of the world. Bitcoin is now in a bear market just because of the death there's a death cross. That is not the case. What I found was that 75% of the time when there's a death cross signal going back to 2011. So I looked at every example of a death cross signal. When the moving averages, the long term moving average cross over in a negative direction 75% of the time the bitcoin price usually is about to bottom or getting close to a bottom or capitulation and then rallies in the next bounces or rallies is positive for the next one to three months. By the way, I found that when the death cross signal occurs after an all time high, the probability is actually Even higher. I did not discuss this in the video that I made, but we have to remember Bitcoin went from an all time high just a few, just a while ago. I think it was October when it went to an all time high of just near 126,000. Then it dropped to extreme oversold conditions with a sudden death cross. To me, this is even a stronger probability that we could see positive returns. So some kind of a strong rally or bounce in the next one to three months. Now why do I say one to three months? Why not the next year? Because, because again, the pro, the higher probability, the 75% probability, was for the medium term. The long term is much more complicated and for that we'll have to discuss something else. We'll have to look at other factors which we'll discuss with you in this video. So by the way, that's the reason why in that video I said I'm bullish for the next one to three months and why we should not suddenly get panicked out because there's only a 25% low probability of the price action dropping even further into a bear market 25% probability. So I'm going with a higher probability of being positive for the next few months.

That's very clear. That's a very interesting outlook. There is usually another catalyst behind those price movements and usually that is related to macro, that is related to liquidity, that is related to other external factors. So what I was wondering is what would justify such a move higher from here if we look outside the technical analysis?

Yeah, I would say, Giovanni, as you probably know, I am not a fundamentals guy. I'm more of a technicals person. And the reason is that I've learned over the years that whenever I base my own judgment on fundamentals news and stuff like that, I usually get it wrong. So usually majority of the time when I focus on technicals, I actually find that much more reliable purely because in my experience I found that fundamentals tend to lag. So often news and fundamentals can lag behind the price action. And my view is that price is driven by sentiment, by social mood. So emotions like fear, greed, panic, euphoria, these things are to me much more important. And I think that's really the driver of the price action, much less fundamentals. Now I understand some people may disagree with that, but that's okay. But that's my view. So for me, I would say one of the major factors I'm watching right now, other than Bitcoin, is the stock market, the S and P, the Dow, but mostly the S and P. And the stock market still remains in a bull market. We have to remember that. Now it's true the stock market could be having a, it's having a correction right now. In other words, a pullback, which we expected by the way. It's not a surprise. I expected this kind of correction or pullback in the stock market which is now shaping as we're making this video now. The stock market could actually pull back a bit lower. In other words, we could continue a bit lower on this correction we're seeing in the stock market. But I'm not expecting a bear market on the S and P or the stock markets. I think the bull market on the stock market, as far as I'm concerned, I think that's going to continue into 2026. I'm not seeing any signs that the stock market or the economy even for the next six months or the next six to 12 months is going to fall into a crash or a recession. Now we might get a recession or a bear market crash maybe sometime at the end of next year, like 20, at the end of 2026 or going into 2027 even, but not in the immediate term, not in the next several months. Now it's true we're going through some rough patch right now, a bit of a glitch. So we're seeing a correction. And I still think this drop in bitcoin is a correction, not a reversal into a bear market. So I think that once this correction in bitcoin and stock market is out of the way. Yeah, I think that next year, as long as the stock market, as long as the stock market remains in a bull market and an uptrend, I'm remaining bullish on bitcoin for the next six months going to next year.

When you said that markets, according to you are mainly moved by sentiment and I just wanted to ask you this because I was looking at the sentiment right now, this indicator, fear and greed index and it shows that we have been for several weeks already in a extreme fear environment. So I was wondering, how do you.

Bitcoin or stock market.

Sorry, for Bitcoin. So I was just wondering how do you combine that to what you just said?

Yes, sure. Basically what I'm referring to is that sentiment often becomes a very good contrary indicator, contrarian, especially at extremes. What we're seeing right now, and I noticed this on social media and I think social media is a very good useful indication when we reach an extreme in sentiment. So when bitcoin was at its all Time high. Just back in October, or you know, September, October, the sentiment was very positive, very bullish on bitcoin and the stock market as well. And nobody was expecting a drop. You know, everybody was calling higher, higher levels based on fundamentals and things like that. Now that bitcoin has dropped, sentiment's turned negative. But there comes a point, by the way, right now the sentiment on bitcoin is so negative, so pessimistic, bitcoin has become so hated. Basically everybody's calling for much lower levels. Everybody's saying, oh, it's not going to. I've seen comments on bitcoin, I've seen comments from people saying it's going to go to 10k to zero to $1. People saying forget bitcoin, sell it. It's a fiction again. I'll send this to you so you can show it to people. And bitcoin has become extremely hated probably because a lot of these folks, people who don't know what they're doing, they bought bitcoin at its all time, near the all time highs and they're now feeling a lot of pain. They probably sold during this crash that happened. They panicked out. And by the way, even if bitcoin continues to drop, I'm not saying bitcoin has definitely bottomed at this point. Even if I should say I think we're getting close to a bottom and explain why, but even if bitcoin drops a little bit more, okay, I think the levels of fear will become so extreme, and they're already extreme anyway, that we're gonna see capitulation. I think we're very close to capitulation. People just giving up, probably just closing, selling, selling their bitcoin. Again, these are people who are not your hardcore believers in bitcoin. I mean, these are average people who probably bought bitcoin just for, you know, as a get rich quick scheme of some sort of. So these people will probably give up or maybe they have already given up. And I think we're getting close to. That's why I'm saying I think we're getting close to capitulation and a bottom. The levels of fear are reaching such an extreme that it then becomes a good contrary indication when these people give up and they sell.

Based on your analysis, what are the odds that bitcoin will reach new all time highs, let's say by the end of the year?

By the end of the year, I think it's low. I think it's because we have such a short amount of time. We only have a few weeks at the end of the year. However, I am more positive, perhaps by January, February or March. And here's why. I'm going to explain to you why I'm still remaining bullish. Cautiously bullish, I should say. This is the chart of bitcoin going back as far as we can go. I mean 2011, okay? As you can see there, and you'll see something really interesting here. Every top in bitcoin going back to 2011 before a bear market begins, before a major like downward cycle begins. Notice that each one of Those tops from 2011-2014-2018-2021, 2020. Well, the previous ones, not the most recent one. Every one of those previous tops was accompanied by a blow off top where the, in other words, where the price goes so high, so extreme that we see price acceleration, extreme acceleration, which is shown to you by those red vertical bars underneath. Maybe you can see that. So let me just point this out. So notice every single one of these particular tops, let me just increase the length here. Every one of them was accompanied by some kind of a extreme acceleration signal. You can see that here. Guess what? We didn't get that in 2025, except every year, except this most recent one. Now this is very unusual. So every time, every previous top in history, especially 2018, 2021, 2014, you know, when I say 2018, I really mean 2017, sorry. So every one of these particular highs or tops in bitcoin before a bear market has been accompanied by a blow off top, which is shown by price acceleration. Price acceleration or extreme acceleration is when price moves too far, too fast. Okay? And that's why you get those red bars underneath. That's much more objective. That's why I look at that particular indicator. That's what's keeping you bullish. Because if the majority of the time, if every single time in history, tops have been accompanied by price acceleration, extreme acceleration, a blow off top. The fact that we didn't get, the fact that we did not get one this year, in 2025, that's unusual. So that means the higher probability is that we probably have more to go, more upside to go. Maybe next year, maybe not this year, but new highs likely, if not this year, in January, February or March. And then we get a blow off top, extreme acceleration shown by these red bars, these red signals, and then we get a top. Okay, so that's what's keeping you bullish. I don't think we've reached the top just yet. Take a look at this. So people are saying we're in A bear market already. I think they're jumping the gun. I think they're, they're being impatient. We need to be patient. We have now reached a trendline support going back to the year 2023. The RSI, that purple line underneath is oversold, okay? And usually when it's oversold on the weekly time frame is a weekly chart, rsi, the seven period setting is oversold. And we're at support. We're at support. So I think it's a bit unwise, a bit dangerous to get too bearish at this point, okay? So I think we need to be careful. I think we're going to see a very strong bounce. I think a big rally or bounce is coming based on oversold conditions, based on reaching support. Don't get me wrong here. I'm not saying that bitcoin has definitely bottomed and I'm not saying definitely, definitely bitcoin is going to rally now. No, I think we're getting close to a bottom. I think we're getting close to capitulation. And I think the higher odds, the higher probability is a strong bounce, a strong rally of 15 to 20% in the next several weeks. At the very minimum, towards the end of the year. I'm not saying it's going to go to new highs, but we could see a very strong bounce, okay? I think new highs are more likely next year. Now, the only thing that would make me change my mind maybe the only thing that would probably make me bearish is if bitcoin falls below that low that we made in, as you can see, the, the, the spring low. I think that's the April low on my chart. If bitcoin was to drop below this low at 74,000 something, 4,400 approximately, this yellow line, that's the only thing. If bitcoin, again, it's an if, if bitcoin was to fall below that level and as long as it's not a false signal, as long as it's not just a temporary thing, that's the only thing that perhaps would make me bearish. But let me say this. Even if bitcoin did drop below this, this yellow line, it could be a temporary thing. You know, it could be just a one time drop below that level and then bitcoin bounces back up again. We have to remember bitcoin has done that in the past. False signals, it takes out a previous low, then bounces back up again. So at this point, I think it's a bit too early to be bearish.

One theory says that the four year cycle is broken and you seem to be more closer to that vision. The second theory says the four year cycle has not been invalidated because we reached all time high and now we are still going lower. According to this theory, basically there is the same amount of days in between the top of a bull market to the following bottom and the same amount of days from that bottom to the following top. This theory is based on a short time frame, which is the life of bitcoin, which is relatively short. It's just about a few, a few cycles. So it's difficult to base a whole theory on this. But if we look at the past, that has played out quite precisely over the years and according to this theory, essentially the next bottom should be in October 2026 and until then we are going to see basically a downtrend for bitcoin. I wanted just to ask you, why don't you find this vision convincing?

Yeah, very simple. The reason I disagree with the theory that we have to follow this timing cycle and I have heard these theories that say that bitcoin has this four year cycle and that we're now in this four year bemo, we have now reached the end of this bull cycle and we're now falling into a bear cycle. No, the reason I don't agree with this view is because what those theories, what those people who privilege this particular view, what they're forgetting is that basing your judgment only on time, time cycles is very dangerous and highly unreliable. Don't get me wrong here. Timing is a good idea. Using the time axis. I use it too, but I use it in combination with price action. So one thing I really believe in is price above everything else. Price above all. The people who are saying that we're already in a bear market because of timing cycles, they're saying forget price, it's all about time now, the time cycles. Wrong, wrong, wrong. Nothing could be more dangerous and unreliable than relying purely on timing cycles. I've seen plenty of people and analyst analysts out there who base their entire work and their judgment purely on time analysis, purely on time cycles. And they get it wrong a lot. Why? Because they're forgetting the price action. They're forgetting the price charts and the levels of support resistance. It's very premature to say that we're now in a bear market because it's not yet been given a high probability. It's a possibility, sure, but that to me at the moment is a low probability. Why? Take a look at the 2021, 2022 bull market top and Then the bear market. Something really interesting happens. Before a bear market begins or before a bear market gets confirmed. Giovanni, something really interesting happens. This is a weekly chart notice in that year, in 2021, what happened? So Bitcoin dropped below its weekly 21 EMA, as you can see. Then what did it do? Then it bounced back to its weekly 21 EMA. You see it here. And then it got rejected. It failed to do anything else and just got rejected. And then dropped the bounce to the 21 weekly moving average failed. It happened again. You can see it here. In the same year, 2022, Bitcoin bounced to the weekly 21 EMA and it failed to stay above it. It rolled over again. And that's how you know you're in a bear market. You know you're in a bear market when price gets rejected. When, in other words, when price rallies back to the 21 EMA, and then what does it do? It gets rejected, it fails to stay above it and then it gets rejected, it falls over again. That's how you know you're in a bear market. There's one more thing I need to show you. The bounce that occurred in 2021, 2022, you will notice the bounce was corrective, was three waves. Same here. Notice again the bounces, A, B, C. So these were corrective bounces. Now, in Elliott wave theory, when you get a corrective three wave bounce to resistance, like the 21 weekly moving average, that's a sign that there's not much, there's not much conviction behind that rally. So if we get a rally like that this year in 2025, and by the way, a rally is bound to come. So if we go back to our chart of bitcoin now, notice, where are we, where is the price at the moment as we're making this video? Price is here. So on this Trend line, near 87K, where's the 21 weekly moving average? It's up here. That's the blue line. That's just near 100k. Now that moving average is going to move lower in the next few weeks. Probably it's going to be near 97 or 99, something like that, 100K. And here's the thing, we're going to see a big rally on bitcoin, a huge bounce. I'm not saying it's going to happen immediately. Okay, it could happen in the next few weeks, probably in the next few two to three weeks, potentially, maybe at least in December, then we're going to see a big rally or bounce about 10 to 15 to 20% minimum, I think. And then let's see what kind of a pattern we get, what kind of a rally we get, and will it be able, Will that rally be able to get above that weekly 21 moving average? If it can get above it and stay above it, we know we're, we're we. That's a good sign, that's a positive sign. But if Bitcoin, if that rally, if the next rally fails and then it rolls over again, then no, then we're in a bear market. So I think again, people who are. People who are saying we're already in the bear market. The problem is, as I'm sure you know, Giovanni, as I'm sure you've seen people nowadays, because of social media, they're so impatient. Everything's about emotion, everything's about, I want. People want to know information right now. Like, tell me right now what's happening. Sometimes you don't have all the information. Sometimes you have to wait for the market to give you more information. So that's why I'm saying let's be patient, let's see what the market gives us in the next several weeks in December, Especially if that rally. Let's wait for the rally, let's wait for the bounce. If the rally or bounce fails at the weekly 21 moving average, the blue line, and if the bounce is corrective, if it's like this, if it's like a three wave bounce, like we saw in the years 2021, 2022, for example, that's how you can know that, then you can know you're in a bear market. But I'll be perfectly honest with you, Giovanni, I doubt it. I. I don't think we're going to fall into a bear market as usual.

It's great to hear your outlook on the market. I'm sure that our viewers will love it. So again, thanks a lot for joining our show.

Well, thanks very much, Giovanni. I really appreciate it. And thanks for having me. Sa.