Bitcoin Predictions Are Getting It Very Wrong

I must admit I was completely wrong because I said one year ago that Bitcoin will go to 300k by the end of the year. So that was unfortunately not the case. Now that we didn't see that, the question is why? I really think it's because we didn't have any money printing. Without QE there will be no bull market and no altcoin season. So now they finally stopped QT and now that they will start buying T bills again and start doing the QE, I think that hopefully 26 and 27 could be that bull market that we were waiting for.

We have quantitative easing, we have federal funds rate being cut, we have a new Fed chair coming in in Q2. He's very pro Trump administration. You have the big beautiful bill, you have the Trump accounts. So many inflationary things are happening in the year of 2026. It's going to boost liquidity massively. Obviously you can go to prior cycles and see that whenever we do shift into quantitative easing, it does take about half a year to eight months for liquidity that's freshly created to transfer into bitcoin and other risk on assets.

It's funny that we're in crypto, we actually hate the money printer, but now we're praying for it. It's a bit stupid, but at the end of the day, like the markets to really get huge upsw, we need liquidity and right now people are just holding on to their cash.

It seems like.

The four year cycles are intact because we've done everything exactly on point in terms of structure. 1064 days top to bottom over the past three cycles. But the only difference is going to be because the liquidity cycles have been now shifted to a five year cycle. Instead of seeing a drop that we got in 2021, a massive crash. I think instead of that we're going to consolidate like the 2019 and then starting Q4 of 2026 into 2027, I think we start seeing a rally again and that's when all coins are going to see the highlight.

Looks like six to nine months of chop before repricing higher and then do it again is sort of the new norm. So I would be surprised if the theme for the next decade is not the three year bear market, parabolic bull market, and then bitcoin dies again, down 80%, you know, which was the norm for like 10, 12 years. But instead, you know, just sort of an elongated 2, 3, 4, 5, 8 year cycle with a lot of 30% fallbacks.

I think G20 countries will be one of the slower ones to buy Bitcoin. I see Bahrain, I see Kuwait. Very open, like uae, very pro innovation and technology. So I see smaller, more nimble, independent countries leading the way.

Countries like the UK with such deep history and centuries of bureaucracy, you know, these countries take them a little bit more time to be agile. Yeah. So I expect the ones that probably can afford to and are agile enough are able, are probably going to be doing that first.

I position myself into layer ones because whatever narrative comes around, whether it's defi or, or, I don't know, dsi, whatever it is, it always causes the layer one coin to have an indirect increase in price. So instead of cherry picking different layer twos and trying to predict the next big narrative, what I do is I have a bunch of layer one coins that I like, like Solana, bnb, I like those ecosystems, sui. So I invest in the layer ones and whatever narrative happens, then the underlying layer 1 coin will also jump up in value. And that's how I like to capitalize on it.

Real world assets moving on chain. More things that are tradable 24. 7. Right. So our younger audience on Etoro, they expect everything to trade 24. 7. They're like, why are the markets closed on Saturday? And I think that's capital markets moving on chain. And you have the SEC chairman saying all US capital markets are moving on chain, which is a wow statement coming from the largest capital markets in the world. And capital markets copying crypto markets and everything, moving to 24. 7. Less limitless, borderless.