Bitcoin Price Surge Explained by DataDash

Bitcoin is skyrocketing. And can you tell us what are the technical indicators we should be looking at?

You know, it's interesting, I've gotten asked by a lot of people on my channel about what indicators are good to kind of predict where bitcoin's going next. But the crazy thing is, and probably one of the truest things we've seen over the last few months is that pretty much no indicators right now are telling us where bitcoin's going. I mean, if you take a look at technical indicators like moving averages, macd, rsi, all of them have been showing overbought signals for bitcoin, but we've continued to see an uptrend. And even on fundamental indicators like nvt, which has been one that used by, that's been used by a lot of people in the cryptocurrency space over the last few months, is not really proving a viable option to determine when bitcoin tops are forming and when we can expect a correction. So I'd say to kind of stay away from using any major technical indicators right now and to rather focus in on key levels such as support and resistance and to look at previous history, how bitcoin moves in its past. And that's really how I kind of trade. I'm a swing trader myself. That's my major trading strategy for both crypto and other markets. So I'm definitely sticking to that as it's been one of the winning strategies for crypto.

So you said you can look back kind of at historical performance, but what pattern is different this time around than it was in 2017?

That's a great question. It's probably one of the most relevant things to take into mind right now in regarding to the macro perspective, the whole understanding of what's happening in the crypto space. As you can see. I'll show you the chart here. Basically what's happening on the chart is we can see that the last period where we actually started to get accumulation coming in before the real run up from 1,000 to 20,000, we actually had a much longer period where it took bitcoin to recover, to get back to its all time highs. It was, you know, it depends on where you scale it. As you can see, I have my chart drawn here from the second time we retested the bottom. But as you can see, some people would draw back as far as January of 2015. So it took nearly pretty much two years to get back up to those highs again before we could really start the parabolic Rise of Bitcoin at 20,000. This time around it's very different. We have gone up in a matter of less than a year almost back to the all time highs. And it looks like if we continue this momentum, we're actually just hitting 13,000 right as we speak. You know, if bitcoin does actually go up to 20 in the next few days, I mean this will be one of the fastest periods where we've seen bitcoin return back to its highs, especially considering the scale of the market. So it's thrown off a lot of people now. Why would it be moving faster this time around than it has previously? It's a really genuine question to ask. Well, there is another page that I really think is good to look through and we talked about this in a recent video on my channel. It has to do with data science related to bitcoin and they basically call this hodl waves. We can take a look at the public ledger for bitcoin, the unspent transaction outputs. We can look at the age of these unspent transaction outputs, basically when that transaction was last outputted to an address. And we can see that a huge sum of the bitcoin here, in fact around 27% have not moved in the last three to five years. So this means that either those bitcoin have been lost or someone is holding onto them for dear life in this case and they're not letting go of it a good chunk more than a quarter of the supply. What we see with time and time, we get it throughout these waves, is that there's this jolt of accumulation that comes in when they realize there's a squeeze on the supply and this almost kind of fundamental FOMO that comes in into getting into bitcoin and it's what's led this rally to go faster than it usually has in the past. The lesson above all of it if we're taking in this data, is that contrary to most markets, where usually when you grow in scale, as you go from a million dollar market to a billion dollar market to a trillion dollar market, usually it moves slower. In this case it takes a lot more liquidity and kind of pressure to push price higher. This time around, there is a huge drain on supply. There is too much demand in the market and it's what's led to this parabolic rise. As people are starting to realize it, I think we' that Bitcoin's rallies in the future are going to get faster and faster towards their inevitable target.

Okay, that's interesting. And so in that way, what do you think the possible corrections could be? When would they come and what can we kind of expect?

Yeah, so going back to the chart here I am in the ballpark now and trust me, I was someone who, to be completely transparent, I was calling for at 6,000 we might face some resistance. I thought at 10,000 we possibly face resistance because history told us that we should experience a 30 to 40% correction as had seen multiple times throughout Bitcoin's previous accumulation phase before the next rally. However, in this rally I think what we're going to do is actually test up towards around 20,000. In fact, possibly if there's enough mania coming in, possibly like we did last time when we broke through, the highs pass a few percentage points higher than 20,000 and then after that we can expect anywhere from what I think is going to be from a 35% to a 45% correction. Now on the chart there I have 45% marked which would lead us down towards around a $12,000 range. Similar one of the resistance points back in February of 2018. But again it's variable. In this case it's very hard to predict. All I'm saying is that I think that's the period where we can get a correction. And the good news is that for all those out there who are long altcoins, I think that's when altcoins are really going to shine. Especially projects that have been developing that have liquidity across multiple exchanges. So that's where I'm keeping my eye on for an altcoin cycle sometime very soon in the future.

Some people say that Bitcoin is going to continue to rise. And some people think, you know, that it's too early to say that it's another bull run, but when we remember what happened last year, people can be a little bit nervous about it all. So what are your expectations then?

I would tell people to understand what Bitcoin is fundamentally. I know people say fundamentals don't matter and they really do. They're becoming apparent right now, especially when markets are oversold and underappreciated. Bitcoin is a non correlated financial asset. There will never be more than 21 million Bitcoin. And it is not tied, as I stated, with non correlation, it's not tied to any nation, it's not tied to any specific economy. We just reached, for example, just yesterday, three, I think it was three or five thousand Bitcoin ATMs across the world. So you can see that this being not tied to any nationality or government it makes it a great hedge for people to go into with unstable currencies, with fears such as the trade war, uncertainties with Brexit, what's going on in Hong Kong right now we're seeing a whole plethora of macro factors. And not to mention as well, I think we all know inevitably we're going to hit a point of a recession in the next few years. All of that combined makes the perfect storm for bitcoin as a rising store of value. And I remember a few years, just actually a few months ago, people were rambling on about how terrible bitcoin was as a store of value. Well, if you actually held onto your bitcoin, now there's a very short window of time in Bitcoin's history, really a matter of a few weeks in price action where you'd actually be down on your money. So Bitcoin is proving to be a great store of value. It's growing exponentially because it's an emerging store of value. And I can say that this is the equivalent of bitcoin back in the 600 to $700 range. Back in the last previous cycle, we all know where bitcoin went to. It went to 20,000. I think this time around we've got a much higher price target to fix for bitcoin and I'm excited to see what's going to come in this upcoming rally.

Do you think there's hope for altcoins as well or is this really just a bitcoin driven thing?

I've become more and more of a. I wouldn't call myself a BTC maximalist in this case. I think there's a lot of interesting project and a lot of interesting use cases that bitcoin can't tackle itself. So I think there is going to be a rise up in altcoins, especially as we get the correction in bitcoin. And the reason for that is because there's an exit of liquidity out of bitcoin in this case of cash and it needs to go somewhere. In many cases, people want and will not just withdraw it out of crypto. They're going to put it into altcoins that have bled against bitcoin for the past few months and some that have really exciting technologies on a fundamental sense outside of just pure speculation. But I'd say that just like in the previous cycle, between those fundamental developments that have changed since then, and of course inevitable wave of speculation and excitement around this market, there will be a select few altcoins that do quite well I would say probably 20 to 50 altcoins that really outshine this market. And we'll have a few key players like we did last time that were similar to XRP or Tron or Verge. These very momentous plays that aren't really driven on fundamentals. Cointelegraph like subscribe and hodl. Sam.