Bitcoin touches $20K — Is BTC ready for a recession?

Sam sa.

Hello, friends. It is 12 o' clock on a Tuesday and welcome back and thanks for hanging out with us today here on the Market report on cointelegraph. I'm your host, Benton, and we are joined by a few guests today and a resident experts, Marcel Peckman, Yashu Gola and Ray. Sam and Yashukola is a financial analyst who has been covering the crypto industry since 2014. Marcel applies his 17 years of experience trading domestic derivatives options and futures to the crypto derivatives markets. And Ray is the head of markets at Cointelegraph and an occasional trader of BTC and certain altcoins. Fellas, we're done with the bloodbath for now, but is it done? How are we feeling? I'm going to kick this off with Ray. Welcome, guys. Glad to have everyone here. How are we feeling this week, Ray?

I feel good, personally. I mean, last week came as a shock. I think we all had that feeling of numbness as the price dropped to 20, which was not expected, and then below 20, which certainly wasn't expected. But you know, to be honest, I feel like, run it back, turbo. This is Groundhog Day 3.0. We've seen this dream before. We've been here before. You know how this plays out, right? You know, price goes to new lows, price goes parabolic and makes new highs. Smart money sells the top and we retrace back to the bottom. So I've been telling all my friends, family, you know, it's not financial advice. I'm not encouraging anyone to buy or pressuring them. Thank God I never did that in the past because I'd be eating foot or crow right now. But my personal point of view is I feel like it's another opportunity. I thought I would never see Bitcoin below 40k again, and that's a bit too pricey for me to, you know, buy in bulk or even think about dollar cost averaging from that level. So where we stand now, it's just another opportunity to do it even better than I did the last two times. A lot of opportunity out there. I feel hype.

Awesome. And Yashu, how are we feeling this week about overall market sentiment and where things are at currently?

Well, as an investor, it was a very scary week for me as well. So I think all of us has this story to share and I think we have the same story. And we get calls from all our relatives or friends who have been invested and they just want to know that is it the right time to sell? I'm totally panicking and I'm telling them yeah, it's gonna fall further but you know, just hold only when you don't need the money. So all this week I am because I'm particularly scared about one thing, that this is Bitcoins first beer market leading to a recession. We have never seen that. So all this time in the last week while looking at all these companies failing at liquidity, getting insolvent or so called insolvent, I'm just looking at further opportunities like Ray that okay, let it fall, it's time to save money and buy when it's the right time. So optimistic down the road but scary for now.

Andrew, you're going to be giving us some technical analysis today on Ethereum and I think you have some very, very interesting insights as to what's to come. But Marcel, I'm curious to hear how are you feeling man? What's going on? Are you, are you still taking it easy? Are you kind of looking at and assessing opportunities to get in? What's going on? How are you kind of taking things so far this week?

Benton? I'm just happy I'm finally beating the professional guys like 3ac is down, Celsius is down and I'm still here. I was not liquidated, I'm still trading. So even though I'm down 70% or whatever, I'm happy to be alive.

Awesome to have everyone here and we've seen all the margin that's been in the markets getting kind of cleaned out. Lots of interesting stuff. I think ahead for the weeks, months potentially heading into the end of the year you're going to hear these experts talk about their takes as what could come next. I know we got a super exciting show today. I want to quickly pivot over to the chat and welcome everyone for joining the market report today. I see some of our loyal viewers. We got Vikram, we got Luciano, Luis Gomez. Radar BTC is back. Rich new design. I think we're gonna have a little special clip with Rich today. So appreciate everyone coming and tuning into today's show. If you haven't, go ahead and like and subscribe coin telegraph on YouTube where the market report is here on Tuesdays 12pm Eastern. We love to have you all listening in and watching. Make sure if you have questions during show, pop them into the chat. Our experts are going to be answering them periodically throughout the show today so make sure you go ahead and pop those in today. First things first though, we're going to give you the weekly roundup with some of the biggest headlines in the Twitter space and get you those right away. So, Danilo, let's go ahead and run it back with a weekly roundup.

It.

Lots of headlines in there about some of these C5 protocols. Lots of nation states talking about crypto, how they want to get into, how they want to regulate as well. So I thought that was kind of an interesting takeaway from the weekly roundup. Adrian, do we have, do we have memes this week? We got memes coming in hot. What do we got? If we got the memes this week, let's go ahead and get them up there. It's meme time, folks. All right, what do we got? How to deal with bad trades. Close your laptop. What do you guys think? Is that what we're doing right now?

It works.

Oh, well, that's a good advice. That's the best advice I've ever heard.

I mean.

Crypto winter is coming. Hope it's going to last as long as my. As long as I got my character. Well, I don't know. We can all keep our dignity, I think, during this, you know, this crypto winter. Hopefully it's not affecting everyone too bad. That's a good meme, though. Let's go to the next one. Gas prices, 462, inflation. These are, these are good memes this week. These are pretty, pretty good. Pretty, pretty good. I like that one. What's next? Also be ready for the, for the lalos.

Yeah, Lots of ramen for those who have been here for the previous cycle, so longer than four years. We all know what the ramen is and how it tastes.

Get ready. I put it up on my ramen weeks ago. All right, very good. Thank you, Adrian, for getting our memes loaded up in Danil as well, for helping us out with our memes. This week, folks, we're going to be giving away one month subscription to Markets Pro. So make sure you pop your Twitter handle in the chat into the show. We're going to select a winner and we're also going to talk to you a little bit later in the show about the two coins. You should have been watching. And if you would have the Markets Pro platform, you would have known about them. So first things first, guys, we're going to get into a bitcoin article. So BTC price recovers to a three day high as new whale supports around 19.2k. You heard Ray talk about it, you heard Yashu talk about it. These levels, are they sustainable? Is this the short term support? I'm going to go ahead and get through this one. This article was written By William Suberg Some quick highlights here that I want to kind of touch on is he said Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro Trading View showed BTC slash trading pair USD climbed to shy 21,000 at the time of writing, a three day high. We see the chart here. This thing looks like we dropped almost down to 17.5k. I thought this was an absolute gift. The other day I was looking right around that 18k level and we just kind of continued to go steadily back up here and now we're hovering right around this 20k mark. What is your quick opinions? Is this 20k support level going to hold for long? Are we going to get kind of pushed back down below it? Marcel, I'll let you kind of Jen here with your initial thoughts.

Well Ben, I don't believe a single bitcoiner trust that 90k or 20k is a strong support. As we've seen it in the past. We thought that 37 would hold and 28 would hold and 20 would hold and they've all been breached. So I think it's going to take a little bit more time for us to get more confidence and say yeah, 17.8 was the final bottom. But right now I still don't trust it.

I mean you heard Sam on last week's show say bitcoin has never gone below its previous all time highs and it just did that. So I'm curious to know what does that trend actually, Yashu, if you want to jump in here and kind of give some of your thoughts as to what you're seeing with bitcoin in general right now.

Well, as they say that past performances are not guaranteeing the future performance. So I think we have to agree that 20k is not like a God level. It cannot actually protect a market from falling further given that we are pretty much in the same fundamental scenario that led to this drop. So I don't think that 20k can hold strong for a longer time because yes, we are in an interest rate hiking environment and that is scary as hell.

I guess. But like what does that mean if we continue to raise interest rates? The Fed is trying to clean up their balance sheet. Is this, is this a five year thing? Are we looking at like a huge, huge potential recession, you know, over a longer period than what, what was maybe 20 or 2008?

Well, we cannot actually like derive this thing in the terms of time frames. We really have to see that at what rate inflation is peaking and how much Fed is willing to lend itself in to resolve that problem because let's not forget that there is a war going on and we just saw a 75 basis rate hike which was like I think the first time ever since 1994. So these are a very unusual time even for bitcoin because it's our first entry into a real recession market. We were born out of recession, but this is actually the first litmus test bitcoin is having. So I don't think investors psychologically are prepared to get into an asset that moves horrifically. Intraday.

Excellent insights. And Ray, I'm curious to hear your take. What are your whole thoughts about this kind of 20k level? Does this mean anything to you? How are you looking at it and approaching where we're at kind of in the current time frame?

I agree with Yashu and Marcel. You know, seasoned investors probably think price is attractive around this level, but I doubt those who are not like capital rich are just completely aping in from the standpoint of technical analysis. I think, I think in this instance, you know, it's a bit diminished. The larger factors at play are the macro factors that Yashu outlined. You know, the central bank with the interest rate hikes and you know, trying to get the balance sheet under control and all that. So while on chain metrics and you know, technical analysis will say that Bitcoin is a good buy right now, we're still in a risk off environment, especially with, with high volatility assets like cryptocurrencies or Bitcoin. And Yashi is right. This is the first time that bitcoin has in the crypto market has existed and in such a strong downturn, you know, like a equities driven downturn. So I feel like we're in new territory and it's good to be cautious. Yeah, it's good to think about how much capital do you have, divide it up into perhaps dollar cost average increments and think about what's your time horizon for investment. Break up your investment size into fourths, fifths or tenths and make interval based investments rather than trying to catch a falling knife.

Excellent. And quickly, Danilo, I want to go ahead and pull up this tweet from Tech Dev, which I thought was pretty interesting since we're on this topic of Bitco, something that he kind of broke down was the previous cycles. And the one thing I want to notate is like this little blue arrow here that he has which is where the 20 week moving average crosses the 100 week moving average. And we see here this just happened in the last week. And so if Previous historical trends, you know, play out here. It shows us here that this kind of consolidates for a little bit and then over time resumes its run. And same thing here back it looks like the 20, 2015, 2017 run. And so I thought that was kind of interesting when, when I'm in doubt I always kind of look at tech dev and see what is he, what is, how is he looking at this. So he's always got these kind of like trends that he puts together now. Yeah, the other big headline.

Add a quick word.

Yeah, go ahead. Yeah.

So currently the price is under the 20ma and like a momentum indicator of strength in my opinion for like intraday trading or, or like a swing trade is to see the price begin to close above that 20 day moving average which we have not yet on the daily timeframe. But another thing I wanted to mention was yeah, we're in a downtrend market wise. You know, all markets are in a downtrend right now. But we do have the next bitcoin halving coming up in 650 days and usually one year out from that having we begin to rally. So you know, 325 days of consolidation we could look for in this current range of what, maybe 25k to 40k. Maybe we'll bounce around in that same box that we've been stuck in for the last year for 350 days. And then after that we begin that pre housing rally leading into the bitcoin halving. So maybe that's the thing that's going to save bitcoin and the rest of the markets this time.

Definitely. And you start to see that the price in action, like Ray said, a little bit lead into that. So all eyes on the next bitcoin having. But the other big headline that I wanted to touch on this week, which I'm really curious to hear what your all take on this is, is the solent thing. I don't know if you guys saw this, but Solon invalidates Solana whale Wallet takeover plan with second governance vote There was a vote to actually take over this wallet's whale in fear of liquidation and causing this huge disruption inside the Solana ecosystem. They voted, I think it was under like a six hour window. Then they went back and retracted it. And so this kind of like outlines some of what happened. Now we're seeing the EFI space kind of really take the strongest, I think brunt of what's been happening in the market. And Marcel, I'll start this off with you. What are your thoughts with decentralized protocols being able to access users funds and then control them. Is this true defi? Is this what the future holds? Is this what this means to have regulations potentially in the future? What are your thoughts and takes as to what this means for defi in general?

I don't think regulation could limit or change anything in that sense. I think that most of the defi and the governance tokens hasn't been really well thought because most of us would never find a vote more. Even if it takes like six days instead of six hours. We simply don't care. We just want the protcode assistant to work. So most of us are regular users. We are not experienced or versed enough to check the code if there's flaws, to understand how the Oracle interacts with the smart contracts. So there are just too many unknown, unknown uncertainties for the average user to benefit from the defy. So that's when these problems arises. It's not that this wasn't a risk that everyone knew is that just that everyone ignored because of the 20, 30% or 40% API. You deposited some coin on a defi and you got a yield and return and you don't want to understand what happens below the surface or what the risks are and that's what caused the whole issue. So the problem has been there forever, just that people didn't care.

It reminds me of this meme that says if you don't know where the yield comes from, you are the yield.

Very true, Ray, very true. Well Yashu, what is your take on this whole Soland fallout? Is this true to defi? Is this what defi is all about?

Nope, never. I mean what they have done actually reminded me of what Ethereum founders did after their DAO got hacked. And it's basically sacrificing that core tenet of decentralization. And there is a reason Satoshi Nakamoto sacrificed more metrics in his Bitcoin design to achieve an automated system that can transfer money without a third party. But these people, they are just simply taking over a network like a bank would do, right? So what is the innovation here? That is my question. Okay, just create an SQL device if you want to host apps. Why would you need Solana if they can control up to a point they can actually invade your wallet and you know, bar you from liquidating. I mean that shocked me to be honest.

As I say maybe, maybe Solana should just shut down the network so the whale couldn't liquidate. They seem to be pretty good at that.

Well, they community that. Yeah, they should. I mean, they simply invalidated the vote because that, that is.

Celsius just did that. Celsius shut down the network. It just happened.

To be honest, it happens all the time in crypto and especially decentralized finance. It's a commonplace thing. But didn't Arthur Hayes shut down Bitmex to save us from going to zero in March 2020? So maybe sometimes shutdowns are good.

It's like hitting the pause button on the markets, I guess. But like Ray. So what is your takeaway from this?

Digital markets have them.

Very true. But what is your takeaway from this? Is this ultimately like a learning lesson for the defi space? Are there big takeaways that you're seeing what could potentially formalize here from this situation?

Are you asking me?

Yes. Right, yeah.

Defi had a problem. Defi had a problem since DEFY Summer 2.0 ended. And the problem was synthetics upon synthetics upon synthetics upon synthetics. So, you know, first the issue was mercenary capital and whales jumping in and out of different protocols, pumping up the tvl, which at that time was a metric of protocol strength and then basically dumping on the late comers. Right. And unless you're entering those pools with size, you're not deriving significant yield anyway. You're paying a lot. Especially if it's like a ETH based chain. You're paying a lot of fees at the time, you know, Now ETH fees are cheap. So we have the issue of mercenary capital. How do we combat that? Let's do targeted liquidity or directed liquidity, like Olympus Dao and Tokmak and all the Olympus DAO forks. And let's create a DAO with a Treasury that invests in other assets and then the treasury is invested and generates yield which is supposedly kicked back to liquidity providers and there's a whole bonding system. So after that then we have liquid staking. Liquid staking is meant to keep liquidity locked within the protocol to combat mercenary protocol. So you lock your tokens, I give you an IOU which has utility within our ecosystem, or even cross chain utility where you could take like polka dot or link and stake it to get xlink or X sushi and then deposit it into different pools and cross protocols. That's meant to like keep the TVL up and you get double dipped fee return. Right. Or fee sharing. That didn't really work. So all this synthetics upon synthetics upon synthetics just created a lot of leveraged debt within the entire crypto ecosystem. Now that we know Celsius and 3ac and possibly like blockfi and at least not Nexo. And they'll come after me if I say they did because they did last week. But we know that these big VCs were also double dipping and gaming Defi, right? And then they dumped on us and froze our wallets at the end of the day. So Defi's had a problem. Now going back to Solana really quickly, it's a beleaguered chain. I question the strength of its fundamentals, which supposedly made it a good investment in 2020 and 2021. It suffers from frequent DDoS attacks. The network goes down at odd times which leads those who are leveraged or borrowing within those decentralized exchange protocols to get liquidated. Most recently like Magic Eden, which is the largest NFT marketplace within Solana, those developers were begging to not have their contract address blocked in a discord because the network kept going down and they're like, oh, we're just going to pause all the contracts so you can't do that on the NFT marketplace. So in a way, to me the network seems subject to centralization and Solend is just another a good example of that. And Solana raises why I question like it's fundamentals is there's a lot of VC backing of the projects that are on the Solana blockchain. Blockchain FTX backs a lot of those projects also. So we all know what the future of VC backed crypto projects and Defi projects are because they vest and when they invest they dump on us little people. Right? And that's why so many of those Solana tokens go pump and dump from hero to zero, basically. So, you know, technical analysis might show Solana looking attractive as an investment, maybe if you're a momentum or swing trader, but the fundamentals for it right now I'm less than convinced. I think all the venture capital backing those projects is a threat.

Very interesting take. I know that's what a lot of people talk about is when they talk about Solana is, oh, it's so well backed, there's so many VCs in there. But when you actually peel back the layers and realize like, like what's actually going on may not be to your benefit as a retail end user. So yeah, don't seem to be laid. I was going to say there's always, there's always a, an ulterior motive. So good, good insights from Ray and the rest of the panel is there. From our two big headlines from Cointelegraph, this week. Don't forget to like and subscribe Cointelegraph here on YouTube we have the market report every Tuesday at 12pm and drop your Twitter handle in the chat. We're going to be looking at the chat today, answering questions as we go through each our segments. But up next we are going to go ahead and jump into our quick crypto tips. This week we're going to talk about don't buy when the price is low or when to buy. Once again, not financial advice. These are the expressed personal opinions of each panelist, not the overall views of Coin Telegraph. So Danila, let's go ahead and get to our crypto tips this week. All right, don't just buy because the price is low. Often you hear people say buy the dip once cryptocurrency prices begin to decline. There's nothing wrong with the dip as long as you are in it for the long term and understand some of the risk. However, you could end up hating yourself if you place a buy in a short term trade in a falling market without carrying out proper technical analysis. In fact, in an extremely volatile situation, you should stay off the crypto market because of the downward trend can persist for weeks or even months before finding strong support. Figuring out where the bottom of the dip will come is often difficult and it can be like catching falling knives. So you don't buy just because the price is low. Rather you buy because you project the price could rise in the long term. Quick little crypto tip for you this week. You hear people say buy the dip all the time. Make sure you understand what it means to actually buy the dip and that you have conviction. Conviction in the long term. That's a big key to everything. When it buys, when you buy the dip. Up next though, I know we have a huge segment from Marcel this week and but first I want to get into we had a user generated content video. I want to play this real quick. Shout out to Rich New Design. He made a short clip about his winnings from a previous show from the cointelegraph gift shop. So Danielle, let's go ahead and play that short clip from one of our loyal viewers. Rich New Design. Big shout out. Hey, it's a package from Coin Telegraph.

Hey, I might not have any crypto.

Coins left, but I got this coffee mug from Coin Telegraph. That's great. Rich New design.

Love that.

Good job.

Yes. Thank you for, thank you for participating in the show at week in, week out. We love having you here and thank you for making that video. That was awesome. One of our Loyal fans, Rich news on. We need to get you on the show sometime, so we appreciate you tuning in weekend and week out. And again, we're gonna be giving away Markets Pro subscription for one month, so make sure you drop your Twitter handle in the chat today. But next we want to get. Marcel. Marcel, I need to know what's going on with Ethereum this week, man. What, what should I be doing? We need, we need to know what the professional traders are doing. All right, so let's go ahead and let Marcellus take this away because he's got some excellent insights about what's happening with Ethereum and where things could head next.

Okay, Benton, so most people don't realize, but excluding Bitcoin, Ethereum market cap had previously peaked at 45% market share earlier in 2021. But more importantly, Ethereum has been gaining momentum versus its competitors over the past few four years. So, Danilo, can you share my screen please? So this is the Ethereum market share against the Altcoins. So excluding Bitcoin, right now it stands at 27.7%. But it peaked at 45% earlier in 2021. So right now we're in the middle of a brutal price correction and uncertainty due to Three Arrows Capital, Celsius, Babel Finance. And that's precisely in those moments that rationality gets thrown out of the window and golden opportunities arise. And I will show you why Ethereum is undervalued right now. Thank you, Danilo. So the first question is, is there a reason for Ethereum to break this four year cycle that has been driving the Altcoin market share up? And to answer that, we should remember who Ethereum is competing against with. So number one, BNB chain. It's a 36 billion dollar market cap token. But it's TVL. The deposits on smart contracts, it's only $5 billion. Remember Terra Luna, which recently imploded, had a $31 billion market cap just two months ago. And with Algo backed Stablecoin that imploded with a 20 billion dollar TVL, it doesn't exist anymore, it's down 99%. And lastly, Solana, important competitor with 13 billion dollar market cap. Do you know what's the TVL the deposits on smart contracts on Solana? $2 billion. That's a mere 6% of Ethereum's $35 billion. So Danilo, I want to share another screen please. So here at Defi Llama, I'm gonna make it bigger. So ethereum holds a 59% market share on the TVL deposits. And two months ago, Ethereum held 51% market share of the deposits of the TVL. So it's increasing versus competitors. Ethereum holds 350,000 monthly active users on OpenSea and Uniswap Exchange. So it has a huge user base. It has nearly 60% of the TVL and its market share, excluding Bitcoin, it's a mere 27%. So for me, in comparison to the remaining altcoins, Ethereum looks like a bargain right now. So I'll send you guys to Yashu and he will talk a little bit more about Bitcoin.

Thanks, mate. So actually before Bitcoin, I'll just start with Ethereum because I would like to just keep the continuity live. So, guys, I am really not much of a fan right now of Ethereum just because of the same reason I quoted earlier. Soaring prices are hurting everyone and unfortunately its cure is going to hurt as well. We really have to focus on how Ethereum and Bitcoin has utterly failed as a safe haven during the global market meltdown. And I mean, because they both are positively correlated and they all are simply tailing the stock market moves. So there is one little glitch in the rebound scenario which I think is going to hurt us in the long term. And so I'm just going to share chart. Hang on. I'm quite bad at this. Hang on. Sorry guys. I found it. Yeah, so I'm sharing this chart with you guys. Just. Yeah, where we are, if you are able to see, you can see that we are making this very imperfect head and shoulder pattern right now. I'm not just relying on this technical indicator. I'm also meaning to say that the fundamentals kind of like support this technical scenario. So we have this little headline here. This is the left shoulder, this is the head, and this is the right shoulder. As a very common rule of technical analysis. What really happens that after a breakdown, which happened at this level at around $1800, when the price gets into the breakdown territory, it falls by as much as the height of this head and shoulder, which roughly brings a downside target, you know, as far as this head and shoulder is concerned, to 703. So this is actually the target I'm actually focusing on in conjugation with all the, you know, things happening in the macro sector with interest rate hikes.

$700.

Oh, yes. $700. That's. Yep, that looks like the target. And you can actually see that this is actually a historical, relevant, you know, level. I mean, this was actually a top during A fake bear market rally, which could be the case. I mean we have seen this acting as resistance before. So I think this is pretty much a psychological target. I'm still not guaranteeing that this is actually the bottom. No, let's not take it as a clue of bottom because as I had said, the interest rate hikes will happen and Fed has the. If you see the Fed dot plot, their target is 3.5% by the end of this year and we are only at 1.25 and 1.5% range. So we still have to double that interest rate hike. So there's going to be a lot of pain ahead. So let's not take it as a bottom. But yet we might say that this could be a, this could actually host a minor bounce. But yeah, market can go further. So which is why I attached. Yeah, sorry, what.

It's so like what, what would be indicators or signals that would tell you that, that we're in a bottom for, for Ethereum, especially right now.

Unfortunately there is not except some political factors. To be honest. I am not totally relying on crypto indicators in this market. Like I said earlier, we are heading into a recession orchestrated by a central bank, the world's best central bank and they are still adamant to introduce those rate hikes and it's going to hurt us. But, but there's going to be a midterm election in November and the early signals are that Joe Biden will gonna lose it. So what I'm actually anticipating, you know, politically basically when he loses the election, he might try to calm down the markets a bit by asking the Fed to slash the interest rate. So we have a Fed meeting in December. I know that December has been the golden month for bottoming out in 2018. We have seen it. In 2019, we have seen it. You can actually trust the astrology if you want, but for me it's actually, it's more political. So Biden loses. He asked Fed to raise the interest rate. Next meeting they either stabilize it or they like just, you know, drop it by 0.25%. So that could be the first indication that yeah, we might have find a bottom. But yes, it's very difficult to predict to call the bottom that where it's going to be like which actually, you know, bring me to BTC USD. Unfortunately it is not making a very accurate head and shoulder. It looks like one but it's very uneven. So what I'm really relying on again, volume profile just to understand that where the traders were most active during the history of Bitcoin. And this chart actually is, tells you the entire history of bitcoin. So this red line, this is actually the most active level ever. You know, as long as the history is concerned, which is like 1,500. Yeah, around that. And if I just compare it with the previous markets, the most traded level is around $7,500. So I am technically just relying on these previous psychological targets where bitcoin can bounce, still not bottom bounce. So we have the next target here at. Hang on, this is 17,000 and actually we had bounce from there. So you can see that traders are reacting to these previous resistant top, which also brings me to the next one that is near 14,000. That was the May 20002019 top. So if we see a break below 17,000 in the coming sessions, let's expect the price to fall towards 14,000. And why do I say 14,000? Because there is also one ascending trend line support here. As you can see, this has actually supported levels very well. Again a psychological target, but this could take us to 14,000 and we can say a minor bounce, still not a bottom because it completely relies on how the Fed plays out. Fed is the one who's calling the action, not anything else in my opinion. So yeah, this is my analysis for now. I'll just stop sharing.

Very good. So it's so. So it sounds like you're taking a macro and geopolitical kind of perspective, pairing that kind of into your technical analysis to kind of see what could potentially come next. True, right.

I mean to be just, just to add, you know, just to add because all the economists, Bloomberg, you know, they surveyed it and they said that at 74, there's a 74 chance that we're gonna hit a recession in 2024, first quarter. So we are approaching it anyway.

We will see. It sounds like, you know, choppy sees ahead and it's never going to be easy for, for those in crypto. But Ray, I'm going to let you chime in here because I think you have some stuff to add and potentially some other screen shares. And then we'll get into our next subject matter for today. So Ray, go ahead and take it away with some of your insights as to what's going on from the TA perspective, the market perspective and your analysis.

All right, well, following up with what Yashu said about Ethereum, I agree and disagree to some extent. I think for Ethereum the market cycle is complete and the higher time frame market structure shows either a short term bump to 1700 or 1800. If Bitcoin consolidates within a sideways, predictable range. So if Bitcoin price can consolidate between this 19 to $24,000 range for a few weeks, that gives day traders confidence that they can play altcoins. And altcoins tend to break out when Bitcoin price consolidates in a predictable manner. So I could see a short term bump to that 1.7k or 1.8k move if the market continues to crumble. Or, you know, one of the things that pulled down eth was mass spot selling as 3ac and Celsius and other entities went insolvent or were approaching becoming insolvent and they needed to deploy that capital to top up their their loans so to avoid liquidation. So I think that put a lot of unexpected heavy sell pressure on ETH last week and the week before. So in the event that more bad news flow comes out, you could probably see Ethereum price drop to 700 or the 500 range. But like I was saying, if you look at a daily chart or a weekly chart, you can see that the market cycle is complete, right? The market structure is showing that we reach the top and now we've reversed course and the trend is bearish on a macro level. So what I expect is if we do drop to that 7 or 500 range, you'll get a lengthy consolidation just like before. If you look at a weekly chart, you'll see that Ethan 2018 corrected from like 1400 all the way down to 80, and then you had a year or if not longer of just pure consolidation. And you can see that. And the volume, you know the volume was steadily rising even as price was trading sideways, which is typically an accumulation sign. So I think we'll just accumulate until the next cycle, especially if the layer one and layer two killer wars debate restarts, which is pretty much guaranteed because regardless about how you feel about eth, it's proven itself to be a rock solid network against its competitors. Sure, there's high fees, there's network congestion, but it still works. That network always works. It doesn't go down. Let's not forget the merge is also coming. And there's an array of pre and post and during merge bullish narratives around that. I was buying eth at 80 bucks and I've learned that like dogecoin, it's not an asset that you want to fade, really. So think about the fundamentals and the use case, not just the scariness of price. Marcel focuses a lot on TVL and new users. New Wallet addresses the rate of DAP growth or dapp use as a sign of network health. And I think that's a good on chain approach to analyzing the network. Aside from price, there's also game theory with Ethereum. It's supposed to become deflationary as the marriage happens. So you know, there's an argument that wouldn't you want to get as much as possible. So in these downtrends you can short it, you can swing trade it to build up your capital. Then when the price flattens out or you start to see a rounding bottom and it looks like accumulation is happening, that might be the point at which you could go spot long or maybe even leverage long. So yeah, I'll just say that as a follow up to Yashi's assessment of of Ethereum for the other coins. I know that we've got a few other segments so I don't want to hold this up. So I might inject some asides to that as we get to section three. Unless you want me to keep talking, I would say a little bit about bitcoin or altcoins if you want me.

To give us, give us your quick take on I guess some of the altcoins that you're watching right now and why.

Okay, so I'm not really like watching any altcoins, but I see a lot of opportunity out there because like I was saying earlier, bitcoin seems to. The sell off seems to have taken a pause. So give one or two more days. You're already seeing it today. A lot of altcoins posting double digit gains. So my strategy would be to just capitalize on that intraday price action. So Adrian, if you want to throw up any of those charts, any of them will do. It doesn't matter which one. But what I'm seeing in a lot of altcoins is if you look at the four hour chart or a daily chart, you'll notice that a lot of them have gaps in their volume profile, which is an indicator that's yellow and blue on the right side of the chart. Those gaps tend to get filled especially when BTC or traders feel that BTC is trading in an established range or starting to consolidate. So price usually rises to fill those gaps. And what I do is quick intraday 3x5x10x trades as those, as those. As those structures begin to break out and get filled. So if you want to throw up some other charts, you're welcome to. You'll notice that on Theta Link, rsr, Matic, Aave, Ave, a ton of other assets, they're all showing rounding bottoms, inverse head and shoulders patterns, w bottoms, all of which are kind of like on a four hour time frame, short term reversal signals on a daily or a three day or a one week time frame, they're not showing that yet, but those would be signs of longer term reversals. So when you see those patterns and volume accompanying them and there's a gap in the volume profile, it's a pretty easy trade to make. But I personally think that they have a 24 to 48 hour window, so wait for it to break out. This is not financial advice. This is just my trading strategy. It's what I do. Not telling you that you should do this. I set an alarm for the breakout. Once the breakout is hit, I go ahead and jump in with leverage. And then when my target is hit, take profit one, take profit two, level I exit. And a strategy is to leave a portion of your profits in that token. If you want to be spot long and you think these are like generational buy opportunities, you can do that or you can just put all your profits into stablecoin, increase your cash position so that you can go in even larger on that support retest or on another token that's breaking out. So that's what I see happening in the market right now. A very important thing because I've gotten wrecked badly in the past is don't get swept up into the trend too heavily. All of the altcoin charts are showing the exact same market structure. So a mistake would be to open five or 10 different spot positions or even leverage positions thinking that you're going to make a bag and then bitcoin does something crazy or some bad news comes out and you have insufficient margin in your account and you end up getting fully wrecked. Right. So I just want to understand what.

You said about having a cash position. What is that?

So I put my profits into USDC or usdt.

But what is cash USDD equivalence?

No, no, no. Even though I would happily short that one, that one in Tron. So I was hoping to play the breakout and then the breakdown. So. But yeah, I just want to say that, that it's important to just identify the asset that's really the strongest of those five altcoins and chase after that trend. Don't spread yourself too thin thinking that you're going to get a 10x on every single one of those because every time the market will turn against you. So this is a, this is what I see for the short term just this week given bitcoin prices kind of consolidating, but that can change it's like a fart, you know, it changes with the wind, so you have to be careful. Yes, that's it.

That's a great saying, right? Love it. Analysis is greatly appreciated. Hey, man, Shalom's in chat here. He's saying most altcoins are held by retail gamblers and food prices are about to go parabolic along with gas whales buy Bitcoin stable coins or Ponzi. Shalom, you are very opinionated today. We appreciate you chiming in the chat as always. All right, Ray, thank you for, for sharing your thoughts and analysis there. I want to go ahead and take a second drop your Twitter handle in the chat. We're giving away one month free markets pro. We want to get into some of the other big headlines. We talked about it earlier. Marcel, you got something to say?

No.

You good? You're just wagging, wagging the finger.

All right.

Celsius and Three Arrows Capital. These were some of the biggest headlines this week. I want to know what is going on, so let's go ahead. I'm going to share my screen real quick with a couple articles and then I want to hear your takes. Is this, is this where things start to crumble? Is this the. The cracks in the armor for the entire crypto industry? This first article we have here was written by Turner right here at Cointelegraph. State securities regulators investigate Celsius over withdrawal suspension. You all the news Celsius with stopped and paused their withdrawals. They're looking to fix solutions. Looks like they were kind of moving around funds. I want to start out here with. Marcel, what is your take on this whole Celsius thing? Are we going to come out of this thing unscathed? What's going to happen in your opinion?

Well, Benton, it's really hard to get a sense of what blockfi and Celsius are really doing with the investors money. Since they are centralized companies, there's complete lack of transparency. Yeah, we can see that. They bought a bunch of GBTC grayscale, btc, etf, but we don't know for sure how leveraged the position was or what. What was, what was he shorting to buy the GBTC? We all know they're losing money, both BlockFi and Celsius, but we cannot say, oh, it's certainly a Ponzi scheme. They could be facing a liquidity crisis, meaning their assets are locked. They don't have immediate funds to pay the depositors. But on the other hand, they could have lost money using leverage bets. So there's no transparency when they're talking about centralized finance. But the bitcoin and crypto investors should be asking, why should I care about that? You should care because when those things fails, when they get liquidated by the lenders, they are forced sellers in the market. So every time there's a large force sell in the market, it causes those cascading liquidations, as you see. Because if you buy using leverage, either options or futures or any derivative contracts, if the contract goes up 10%, yes, you can double your money. But if the contract goes down 10% and your 10x leverage, you lose 100% of your margin of your collateral. And that's exactly what happened to those guys. So cascading liquidations causes a huge impact on price, whether you like it or not.

In Yashu. What do you think is going to shake out here with Celsius? Are they going to ever unpause withdrawals, file for bankruptcy, get bought up? What kind of direction do you think this is gonna head?

Based on the latest news I'm reading, I think they have been trying their very best to pay back their lenders. Just today I noted that they had paid $10 million worth of Dai to compound finance. And so there is, there is no, like, you know, doubt in saying that this company is actually trying its best. Yep, they have screwed up in some way, but they have been trying to really arrange that liquidity for their clients. And when they paused, when they paused the withdrawal, and I'm gonna go by the legal language, they had already told their clients that they can. So sometimes we trust the company. We don't read the terms and condition to give them enough money. But legally they are, you know, they are, they can actually, you know, just hold your funds because just like, like, like my friend said there, that it's a centralized firm and they can. Banks do that. And so nobody asked the banks why do they have capital control, why they're not letting people withdraw. Because yes, it's a liquidity crisis and they need maybe external backers to come up with something, some liquidity for their immediate clients. And they have been doing it. Unfortunately, I cannot really predict that how it's going to go from here, you know, with the regulators also circulating around this company. But yes, I don't doubt their intentions. That's one thing.

And Ray, we saw last week that the certain liquidation levels was around 17ishk for Bitcoin. Are you going to have some of those margin call hunters continue to push and have downward pressure on some of these larger firms, positions like the Celsiuses of the world and the three Arrows capital.

Wouldn'T surprise me. I guess it's all about calculated risk versus the return.

So.

But it wouldn't surprise me to see anyone doing that. Kind of feel like the time to do that was last week though. The market's kind of flattened out and stabilized a little bit right now. So I don't know what it would take to trigger the next cascade or what protocol would need to be exploited. This week, SBF Sam Bankman Fried also came out and said that he and FTX would do whatever is necessary to try and prop up the market and avoid those mass liquidations from happening again. So we don't know what quote unquote circuit breakers might be in place to stop stop hunters from doing that, but I think that's a little bit conspiratorial. Now, maybe massive market makers like Jump or Citadel or, you know, Babel or some of the other names that have been thrown out have the capacity to do that. But is it within their desire or motive to do such a thing? That's all. As Marcel would say, conjecture, speculation, conspiracy thinking. But we know that market makers and smart money are not adverse to taking either side of the trade. Money's money, whether you're a bull or a bear. There's no ethics or morals or emotions attached to making money except excitement when you do it successfully. So I'm not too sure. I will say there's two really valuable lessons I think investors learned very recently. One is risk management. To not put more in than you can afford to lose and to know everything possible about where you're putting your money. And they kind of hit the fan. Contingent scenarios and have a contingency for that. Don't get too comfortable and drink the Kool Aid of decentralization and, and, you know, mass adoption and all that. It's going to take a long time. The second lesson I think we've learned this cycle, and I definitely learned it myself, is to not believe in crypto messiahs like Doan or Danieli of Wonderland and Abracadabra or Andre who didn't do anything bad. But you know, people literally would ape into contracts that bore his signature and pump up asset prices. So due diligence is much more important than believing the smart people in a room. I never thought 3ac would go down. If I had to think of a fund that would implode on itself, I never would have selected three ac. They just seem too smart, too big to fail, too professional. The literature that Suzu puts out through Deribit and you know, his market commentaries were high level. You know, I have to get Marcel to deconstruct that stuff for me and explain to me what it means sometimes when he's talking about derivatives. So I didn't expect for them to mismanage funds and take on so much just to be so, so reckless with other people's money. And I didn't expect them to cut and run on their, on their creditors either. So yeah, two valuable lessons that we've learned. The space is nowhere near as decentralized as it should be. We do need regulation at least blockfi and Celsius and whatever other big centralized finance defi CEFI platforms are out there. They should at least have the obligation to disclose. We should know where their money's being invested, what is their balance sheet look like, where are they profitable, where are they taking losses? We are at least entitled to that information. So I'd like to see regulation at least force them to be more transparent and that way because it's, it's the postmortem still being done, but it's clear as day they were gambling with user funds and it's user funds that are going to be lost. It's not there. They've lost money of course, and they go insolvent. But, but the big funeral here, the big catastrophe is that Celsius money that we talk about getting liquidated is mom and pop money. And those people will never see those funds again.

There's always that, that tail end risk I think that we never really account for. And I think we're starting to see that the contagion factor which we've talked about, you know, on other episodes being started with Luna now, Celsius, blockfi et cetera, SBF has been stepping in and seeing where he can help out with loans and stuff like that. So very interesting times ahead here for the crypto space in general. So we will see how this all plays out out. But next things next, I want to get you the two tokens you should have been watching this week for our Markets Pro platform. We got news Quakes, we got Vortex scores and we got two tokens we need to talk to you about. So let's go into this. Danilo, I got these two tokens I want to talk to you all about today. The first one, let's go ahead and get this party started with the Markets Pro. Two tokens to watch.

Foreign.

The first one is link. You all are very familiar with this one. The news Quake alert went off and Newsquake Alerts are those automated alerts that instantly notify users when market moving events happen. Danilo, let's go ahead and pull up this chart. This week we saw an overwhelming amount of negative news about the crypto market. However, some assets still benefited from market moving news like link. On June 14, Gate IO tweeted about chain Link's introduction of staking to decentralize the network and make it more secure. A newsquake alerted Markets Pro subscribers to the news that when Link was trading at6.21 in just over a day, that price climbed to 7.32. That's an almost 18 increase. And if you got that news alert you see there around the bottom of the chart there, that that newsquake alert allows you to get notified so that you can action those trades as quickly as possible. And those are actually really useful because I've been using them a lot recently and was able to get in on this Link trade. So really happy with that, that alert. This week, the second token that we have on our radar had on a radar is Pond trading on the ticker P O N D. And this one was a double whammy. This was a News quick alert and a Vortex score. And so the Vortex score of 80 or above is considered confidently bullish. Conversely, A lower score, f 30, indicates historically bearish conditions. So Pond also performed well this week. On June 13, a news quake informed markets for subscribers that the asset would be listed on Coinbase the next day. We love those Coinbase listings. Shortly after, the price began to climb, rising 62.5% from the time the news quake dropped the weekly price peak week, Pond also saw a series of strong vortex scores light up throughout the week. These scores noted bullish historical patterns and were consistently followed by positive price movement. The first high score flash when the asset was trading at just under a cent. And a few days later that price rose up to 0.013 cents. And that's an increase of 30 per cent. And that's why you use Markets Pro is so that you get in on these trades with the Vertex scores and the Newsquake alerts. And that's why we're giving away one month subscription today. So if you have not dropped your Twitter handle, this is just free subscriptions. And if you haven't dropped your Twitter handle in there in the chat, what are you doing today? Go ahead and get your one month subscription because I can almost guarantee if you're the first person to drop it in there, you're probably going to win. Just saying. All right, so Folks, that was our markets pro segment. If, and by the way, if you want swag, go to store.cointelegraph.com you saw Rich do designs with his coffee mugs. You want the mugs, you got to go to store. Cointelegraph.com we got all the goodies in there. We got the swags, we got all the shirts, we got all the hats. Whatever you want, we got it in there. And guys, I'm going to give you all just some closing thoughts here. I'm going to start off with Yashu. I want to hear your closing thoughts and maybe some good advice to weather the storm here or these unknown times here until the next episode next week.

Well, viewers, it's a distressing time. We all have been in a bear market before, but we have to remember that, that we have seen 80, 90% correction before and we have always fought back. We always jumped, you know, the guns and really climbed back over. So this is the real time to really hold your guns. Do not be emotional. If you have enough liquidity with you, keep it, keep it with yourself. I'm talking about cash because you might gonna need it when the real stock market crash hits. And so I just want, I just want, I just wish that you all treat bitcoin like any other stock market asset out there which is prone to declines. Do not be emotional with your trades. Just treat them as any other asset you know. So for this week, yes, my views are the same that, yeah, it can decline. You don't have to blend in so much. Just keep indicated there's going to be enough time to buy the lows.

Excellent insights, Ray. Closing thoughts for today's show.

All right, I'll keep it brief. Don't get down on yourself for losing a little bit of money. That's natural. We all lost money. It happens. You're going to live and thrive to survive and see another day when there's a cataclysmic event in the crypto. Don't just stick your head in the sand like an ostrich. You know, take the contrarian point of view and try to look for opportunities in the market because they're out there right now. There are plenty of fundamentally strong assets which are now trading at a discount or undervalued. There's shorting opportunities, there's longing opportunities. You can follow the directionality of the trend and play with that, not against that. Most assets, including bitcoin, are two standard deviations away from their median price or from the mean price. So eventually there's going to be a snapback most on chain indicators. The top ones show that the metrics are at extremes on like the sell side. Right. So the entire market is oversold. It's not a bad time to start dollar cost averaging into assets that you believe in. Probably just bitcoin maybe at this time. Miners are dirt cheap right now because companies are going bust. So like the Bitmain S19 Pro J is like $5,000 right now it was 18,000. Some of them were 35,000 a year ago. So they're already 75 down from where they were where they were. You know what they cost a year ago. So maybe it's a time to look into hosted mining or cloud mining. I personally right now I'm, I'm hype af. You know, I can't say the full phrase here, but this has been a hard reset in the market and this is your time to make it right. So as Matt Damon said in that crypto.com commercial, fortune favors the brave. But don't ape be very strategic with your funds. Don't deploy more than you can afford to lose. You know, and like Yashu says, dark days might be coming in equities markets and with inflation and you know, with these gas prices and yada yada yada. So be strategic with how much cryptocurrency you're buying. If you got a $10,000 portfolio, maybe just deploy 1% or like 5% of that and make some momentum trades with that. You know, if you have a hundred thousand dollar portfolio, just put 10,000 into the market. So just be smart with your money. There's no reason to ape. Yashu is right. If you're not an experienced investor and you're risk averse, it could be better to wait for the bearish trend to kind of end for markets to flatten out and trade sideways for a few months. Months and then for the emergence of a new trend and then start investing. So you know, there's different strokes for different folks. But I view this as a gift from God. I'm so happy that we're here again. It just means I can stack more bitcoin and do it better this time.

Excellent.

That's straight facts. That's how I feel.

I agree with Ray. Don't ape in. Don't use leverage. Just stay strong. Yes, we are all being there. Under 80% down 80% if you think it true. Even the Federal Reserve is holding $9 trillion worth of useless assets. So it's mortgage backed secures that are worth nothing. It's a bunch of treasures that are getting undervalued as the government prints more money away. So even them are losing money. So they are the hostages, not us. So stick with your friends, talk to friends, go outside, meet, go to meetings, talk to people on crypto Twitter. Hang on. Don't give up because of the pressure. We're on the right path. The Federal Reserve is broke and it's just about enough. Just give it time. So we're gonna see the real value of cryptocurrency.

Francis. Amen, brother.

Excellent. Great insights today and a pleasure having our special guests, Yahshu and Ray today. And as always, Marcel, our resident experts here at Cointelegraph. Stay strong, huddle on, buy those dips when you're ready to. Don't leverage and stay in the game. Folks, it's always been a pleasure. Thank you for joining the market report today. I don't see anyone who dropped in their Twitter handle into the chat today because you're missing out that one month subscription still out there. If you drop it in the next 10 seconds, you'll be our winner. But until next week, we'll be here at 12 o', clock Tuesday, 12pm Go ahead and like and subscribe right down there. Coin Telegraph on YouTube. We appreciate you all tuning in until next week. Thank you all.

Thank you.

Sa. Sat.