Global stock market is down! Can Bitcoin recover? | The Market Report

Sa. Sam.

Hello, friends.

And.

Another episode.

Whoa.

What's up? How we doing today, everyone? Welcome back to another episode of the Market Report here on Cointelegraph. I'm your host Benson and we are joined by our resident experts Jordan Finis, Marcel Peckman and Sam Borgi. Jordan uses his background in psychology and human behavior to spot those emerging trends in the crypto market. Sam Borgi is the business editor at Cointelegraph where he brings AI a decade of experience in economic analysis and financial market writing. Marcel Peckman, he's here and he applies his 17 years of experience trading derivatives options and futures to the crypto derivatives markets. Fellas, we are sideways. We are chopping, we are ranging. What is going on this week? How are we feeling about the markets? Arcel, kick us off.

Betam. I'm completely lost here. I wasn't expecting anything below 36, $38,000 for Bitcoin, so it definitely caught me by surprise. And I do really think we could have another six months of bear market maybe ranging from 28 to $36,000. But seems like we're going to be stuck in a bear market for some time.

Yeah, it's weird that I find myself now in the position where I'm looking forward to seeing bitcoin maintaining that $29,000 level like is still there. Like Sam was mentioning before the show, this feels like that range of hell back in 2018 when we were down 6,000 and that gut punch to 3,000. So we'll see how this shakes out in the next few months.

Yeah, back in my day we had a range from hell that lasted for months and months and months and months. Let me tell you that right now. And at that time, for anybody who's new to the market, everyone was so confident that 6,000 would hold because that was the break even rate for miners. Remember that? Remember all that nonsense. Then we capitulated down to around 3,000 and a little bit higher than 3,000. So you know, bitcoin will surprise you with its downside potential. As I've mentioned before, I don't really see any bullish catalysts anytime soon. But the extent of this sell off has really been really been eye opening. So I guess we'll see the sideways chop, maybe downward action. We'll see. We'll see. The next few months have in store.

A lot of bearish sentiment around here and Sam giving us a little brief history lesson. So I appreciate those insights. Folks, we got a reformatted show today. We're going to be bringing to you some of the biggest headlines to start things off. And then we're going to be diving into some of those headlines from articles from Cointelegraph to discuss what's happening with Terra Luna, what we think is going to happen next. Marcel is going to give you his insights about Bitcoin and Ethereum and, and they show you some interesting charts about information that you're going to want to know about what's happening next. Just because we're in a bearish market does not mean you can't make money. And that's where we're here. We're going to give you some of those insights so that you can make the best decisions possible in these type of market conditions. So first things first, let's go ahead and get you some of the biggest headlines in the Twitterverse and jump into our weekly roundup. Danilo, let's get this party started. Sam. Sa. That was a lot of Tara headlines there or chatter going around Twitter, folks. If you haven't liked and subscribed, go ahead and do so now. Cointelegraph on YouTube, Tuesday's market report is coming to you at 12pm Eastern. So make sure you set that notification bell on. So you know, every time we go live and tell us where you are tuning in from from around the globe, we're going to be watching that chat today. So if you have those burning questions, make sure you type them in there. And don't forget we're giving away that one month subscription of Markets Pro. So drop your Twitter handle in the chat. We will be monitoring that throughout the show. Now we got a little fun segment today where our producer is going to show us some memes and we're going to get some reactions here out of the panel. Jordan, Sam and Marcel, I want to hear what we think about some of these memes. So Adrian, if we want to or Danilo, if you want to go ahead and pull up. Let's get into meme time. It is that time of the show, so let's get, let's get it going. All right, first meme of the day. Let's see what this one is. This one is people buying the diploma, me remembering I bought it all time high. I think it's everyone's feeling that way. I think no matter if you've been dollar, cost average or whatever, I mean, Marcel, you, I mean.

It'S not a dip, it keeps dipping.

It's easy to comment charts from, from the past. But if you see bitcoin dropping 20% or altcoins dropping 40% and 50 50% and you go ahead. Oh, I'm doing this here, but I'm gonna buy a little bit more. And it continues dipping. It's not really a bad thing if you trust the assets you're buying. So it's, it's not gonna make much of a difference. Long run. So don't stress out.

You heard it first. This, I think this is a great point, Sam. But to Sam's point, he's been around the block since 2018. I mean you've been in crypto, it's like every year is 10 years. What's his next one? Checking out my Luna portfolio after a month long vacation. Yeah, I think we can all sympathize with that one. I mean I got some skin taken out of the Luna. Gotta love it. Everyone, everyone got a taste of that except for Sam. I think that was, I think that's the meme of the day right there. Is Ethereum 2 point ever going to happen this year? August 2022 was rumors. All right, we got any others? Adrian? Merge.

The merge, the sharding. What will be the next? The merge, the Sharding. That's what's the next phase then Depths. Migration to the new system. There's always be something at the end of the tunnel, but you're never really coming out of that. Not the life.

It'll be like a two year plan to try and get the gas down or something. I don't know.

Hopefully sometime this century that'll happen. We'll see. I believe it. I believe it though. I believe in Ethereum. All the ETH lovers out there. I see we got Catherine Rhodes. Welcome. Tuning in from Los Angeles today and rich new design.

Welcome back.

Glad to have everyone tune into the show. Now folks, we got to get in some headlines. We talked about Luna earlier. There were some articles being written this week on coin Telegraph Burn address was being released. Let's go ahead and jump into some of these, these articles here and talk about some of these biggest headlines and get the panelist takes on what's going on here. So Danil, if you want to pull up my screen, this first article is about Doe Kwon. This guy is all over the headlines recently. Do Kwon shares the Luna burn address but warns lunatics against using it. So first of all, what does it mean to burn tokens? Who wants to answer this question?

Yeah, I mean, put simply, burning a token just means taking it out of circulation. A lot of different projects, they have a burn mechanism in their tokenomics, which means whether it's through fees or Other methods, the token is permanently destroyed which reduces the circulating quantity of that token, which in theory could support upward price movement. Right. Because when you have a lower supply or you have a mechanism that reduces the supply, the price could theoretically go up. So that's a general view of what it means to burn.

Okay, now why would do Kwon release this burn address? Like is there any benefit? Because he's releasing this and telling people don't send your tokens there. Obviously your tokens are almost worthless already. Why would he, why would he release this out to the public? Jordan or Marcel, do you have any thoughts on this?

Well, to me like when we get into crisis we, we kind of lose our minds and we forget how to think. It seems like he's been making crisis mode decisions since like May 3rd. Like really a lot of the stuff that they've been doing hasn't been making a lot of sense. And this, I don't know why, why would you release that to the public? Like it has no, serves no purpose other than people sending their tokens there. But then he's like don't send your tokens there. They go away. It's like, I don't know, I think.

He'S just trying to send a message. Well look, the foundation had too many coins issued by the automated algorithm. Now we are burning some of that or destroying those tokens. So taking out of circulation. We're doing the best we can to protect investors interests. That's the message he wants to send out?

Yeah. It didn't really make any sense because it seemed like he posted it in response to a question. I think somebody wanted the address. Then he posted it and then a couple days later he came out and said oh by the way, you shouldn't be sending tokens here because it's not going to do anything. You're only going to be losing tokens. So I think what Jordan said, not really the clearest decision making right now it seems.

I mean my only theory would be that he would post this, this burn address so that the public could see if and LFG is burning tokens. Like that would be the only reason why, for transparency sake. But what like isn't most burn address public information anyways? Like why was this kept from the public? Yeah, that's my kind of question. But what's going to happen to all these projects in the terra ecosystem? Are they going to. If you were a project right now, are you staying in the terra ecosystem and continuing to build? Are you looking at other options on other chains? What are Your thoughts on this, Sam?

You know what's, what's that one meme? Hell to the gnaw. Yeah, no, if I, I would not be looking to stick around. I mean, look, Tara does have a vibrant ecosystem. I don't know what they do now that they're going to be disavowing the stable coin in the ust. I'm not really sure what the ecosystem is. Is. Is for when you don't have the algorithmic stablecoin. But if they can somehow salvage that community and maybe carve out a new niche, a new path.

Maybe.

But if I'm an established project there, I think I'm looking elsewhere.

Yeah, I don't see too many projects like at Salmon mentioned. What are they really going to do? Tara was built because of the USTs. When you take that away, what's the point of Tara? I think some of the projects might be able to. To switch to another chain maybe. I saw anchor popped up the other day. They could maybe turn into like a liquid staking or maybe coming out with a new collateralized stable coin or something like that. I don't know. But they might have to do it another chain or another Cosmos chain or something. I don't know.

Marcel, any thoughts here?

I think there's. In crypto there's always the trust issue. So how do we know that these developers from the Luna ecosystem were not related somehow or benefits somehow from this LFG thing? And the imploding, did they not have special access? So people are going to start doubting that. So I don't think taking these projects out of the Luna ecosystem, trying to replicate them outside will work. It's better to start something new from scratch.

I think that's one of the things. It's like the Terra ecosystem uses UST as the gas. So what happens if this potential fork move happens? Does then Terra become the gas for the ecosystem? How does that. You know that butterfly effect affect the projects? If you're building like if I'm a builder right now and there's no like foundation or like direction of where I'm going, it does not give me a lot of confidence.

No, but Bento, if eventually hard fork the network and decide not to use ust. Okay guys, we're gonna use a rapid version of dai, a rapid version of usdc, a synthetic asset of usdc, then the system might work. But still you gotta go back and think about the community. Is that what the community wants from the new Luna or the new Terra? I highly doubt it. Without the algorithm stablecoin the whole system makes less sense.

And you hear it talked about often that like 95, 99% of tokens are going to go away. And that's true. And we're kind of seeing this process like when you take away Tera, a lot of these projects are just another DEFI protocol that have a, like a, a comparable chain, a project on another chain. Are they going to be able to switch to another chain and then reach a certain level of market share to be able to survive? I think a lot of these things are just going to eventually kind of fall to the wayside and we're going to get a consolidation into certain top platforms on each network, whether it's like an AAVE on Ethereum, if it's a Cosmos chain. I don't know if Osmosis will take the lead as far as DEXES or Defi goes and whatnot. So we're just kind of seeing this process and I've been around long enough to see a lot of projects will just eventually fade. And the longer this bear market goes, the more likely a lot of these altcoins are never going to come back because their liquidity and stuff is just going to get sucked out of them and put into projects that have long term viability. So yeah, we're just kind of seeing the process of the 95 of projects falling by the wayside and this is kind of what kicks it off.

Yeah, and during the next cycle you're going to start seeing projects you never heard of before, pump really hard and then you rinse and repeat again and again. So you know, I, I don't think, I don't think anyone really expected Luna to implode this quickly. I mean there was concerns, but this one, this one leaves a mark on the industry for sure.

I would definitely say so.

But people Forget that in six months time when another, maybe another ecosystem goes up 5,000% in a month, they simply go crazy behind it.

And yeah, what's Empty Gox again? I forget what was that all about? You know.

Good old Mount Gox. But I mean it does bring up a good point. Like with the collapse of ust, there is this, I think, gap in the market right now for stable coins and the need and the want. Obviously USDC busd USDT are kind of like the leading stable coins right now. But I'm curious to see what's going to be next for the evolution of stable coins. Which brings us into the next stable coin that's being released by Phantom fusd. And some big news. This Week during this bear market we saw at least I think it was like a 12% rise in the FTM token. So I want to go ahead and just pull up this article that actually Jordan wrote about FUSD and what's going on with this, this ecosystem. Is Andre Krone back? Jordan, do you have any insights here in regards to this article about fan and what's going on?

Well, I wrote this, I wrote this and I wrote another piece kind of like talking about the crypto messiahs and how it's not necessarily a good thing and like it's just more the same. How come the price is pumping Just because Andre Cronje came back like it, like the project had solid fundamentals before that. Just because he's maybe getting involved doesn't mean that it's going to be that much better. But you know, I like Phantom is a probably the top Dag, just acyclic graph, decentralized, a cyclic graph or whatever it stands for that project. It's the top in that category. So I think Phantom's got a good long term trajectory as far as like low fees and stuff like that for the community. But we'll see like this. I think we're gonna be in a bear market. So this is on my list of dca like Polka Dot, Phantom, Cosmos. But like how long this bear market's gonna go, I don't know. It doesn't always feel that great to dollar cost average in a bear market when it doesn't like that, that meme, the puking Penguin, like oh yeah, look, I could have got like twice as many before just waiting a few days, but I don't know. We'll see. Phantom got long term chops in my opinion. But the bear market sucks, right?

I mean further to what Jordan said, I think a lot of people in crypto get a, get a hard time for not buying on the low. The problem with crypto is that it's not like the stock market. The stock market is more established market. So if the S and P plunges down to 2,000, you know, that's a generational buy opportunity. But for crypto that's not necessarily the case. You don't know whether this drop is going to continue, whether the project has long term viability. A lot of these coins are simply startup projects. So it's not always. Don't beat yourself up about not being able to time the bottom or pick the bottom. Because a lot of these projects we don't know the long term viability. So that's where you have to really do your own research. And a lot of it is luck and a lot of it is trying to identify as many promising projects as you can and then dollar cost average into them. So that's kind of my take on that.

And just in regards to this fus, fusd Jordan, like what is this fusd? Stablecoin. It seems like it's over collateralized. Is this a game changer at all? There's just another stable coin on the market.

It's another, it's another stable cloud stable coin. They're going more collateralized versus algorithmic, which algorithmic was UST and that's why it collapsed. But again a lot of the assets that they're putting into it are, are phantom based assets. And so there's always going to be the risk of as soon as the price falls out on any of these tokens, your collateral is going to lose its value and you better go and put more collateral or like cash in because just always got to be paying attention when you're working with these collateralized stable coins so you don't get liquidated. And I remember getting liquidated on UST and Anchor way back in like March of last year and it kind of left a sour taste in my mouth. So I wasn't over too overexposed to that whole ecosystem thankfully. So yeah, it's always a risk. This collateralized a lot of the tokens from Phantom ecosystem. So just be careful with any of these. Whether it's FUSD or the new one from Tron. Just be careful.

Good old Tron ecosystem. All right, well keep your eyes peeled for Phantom. I think we have a few folks here that are bullish, including myself, Andre Corone. I don't think he ever disappeared. I just think he took a step back from, from the limelight and he's been there the whole time. So be that as it may. Well, go ahead.

I just wanted to say, following up with what Sam said, like don't expect not even everybody in crypto is going to make this big, big money. People, you hear that a lot. But right now is when the best opportunity to actually do that, when the market's down, everybody's bearish. Like Sam was saying, find some good projects with good fundamentals. Dollar cost average and then you might have to wait a few years, but those will be the ones that go up. That's how you get a theta from a $0.05 to $14 or a dogecoin from.003 to $0.70. You think it was easy holding those for a year and a Half when they just kind of languished. No, but that's, that's, you got to kind of accept that part of the journey and just kind of have faith in what you believe, I guess.

Which I want to hear from the chat though. Which token right now do you think will survive the the bear market outside of Bitcoin and Ethereum and some of the stable coins? Which token will survive the bear market and thrive? Tell us in the chat. I want to hear your thoughts. I see rich new designs that the bear market will clear out all the alts without real value. I think that's a valid point. We've, we've been talking about that now for the last couple of weeks. But next things next, I want to hear from Marcel because he's got a lot of knowledge to drop on us. He's going to be talking about believe Korean exchange and why you want to pay attention to it. So let's go ahead and jump in to Marcel's expert takes on Bitcoin and Ethereum and give us those knowledge of nuggets that we all want to know.

Okay, guys, so this week we'll be doing a slightly different version of my segment. So instead of me bringing the opinions, I'll show you guys three supporting data and you, our viewers, get to decide. Because if I happen to know the future, I'll be joining Tequilas at Sunset right now. And clearly that's not the case. So on to evidence number one, the career progress Premium index. Danilo, can you share my screen please? So as you guys can see here, the Korean premium measures the price of the bitcoin in Korean exchanges versus the price at Coinbase and Kraken. So whenever there's excessive buying demand in Asia, this premium will rally above 5%. And we've seen that in the past. For instance, here in April 2021, the premium spiked up to 20%. And right now the premium is 0.5%. So basically nothing happening right now. But the good news is, despite Bitcoin plunging 40% since March, the premium hasn't gone to the negative side over the past seven weeks. So yeah, from one side there's no premium, no Korea premium, no retail demand, excessive demand there. But on the other side, the last time we saw a negative premium was late March. So over seven weeks ago. Thank you, Danilo. Now let's move to the evidence number two, which is the bitcoin futures liquidations. So futures markets allows a trader to deposit $100 and make a trade 20x times larger. So using leverage, moreover, the Same trader can deposit $100 and place a bearish bet. So betting on the market downside, known as short. However, when you do that and the price moves 5% against you, you get liquidated, your position is terminated, and you lose your margin. So I want to share a chart again here, Danilo, please. So this chart is from Coinglass, and what it shows is when you see a green candle, it means that the longs, the buyers got their positions terminated, so the price moved against them and their trades ended up bad, so they lost money. On the other hand, when you see a red candle, it means the shorts, those betting on the downside, got liquidated. So across the past three months, there's a slight imbalance favoring the longs. So buyers got liquidated a little bit more on May 11 and 12 because of the Terra Luna ecosystem collapse. But over a three month period, not so much of a difference. So I kind of see that as a win for bulls. A slight win for bulls. But again, the biggest liquidations were for the buyers. And as promised, now I'm gonna show you guys the evidence number three, which monitors miners position. So bitcoin miners, they get like 900 bitcoins on their wallets every day because of the mining. So each block's mine gets them 6.25 bitcoins. So whenever they send coins out of their wallets, probably they are selling. That's a bad sign. And whenever they're holding their coins, so they're not sending the coins that they earn to exchange or to another wallet, it means they're holding. So holding is good. So, Danilo, I want to share my screen, please. So whenever the MPI index goes up, for instance, in early April, it went at 2.55. It's the yellow line over here. The black line is the bitcoin price. So a high MPI index means they're moving coins out of their wallets, and a low MPI index, such as the current one, negative, means that they're holding coins. So the last time miners moved coins out of their wallets, bitcoin price was hovering at $45,000, and that was on late March. So on the past seven or eight weeks, they did not move coins out, which means they are holding. So a bullish take. Thank you, Danilo. So a quick recap on the three data and then you get to decide. And please send us your comments on chat. So, data number one, the Korea Premium Index, it hasn't been positive over the past two months, but considering the 40% price drop, it could be interpreted as bullish. Two, data the leverage. So, yes, bitcoin buyers, leverage buyers using futures got hurt on May 11 and 12, but across spectrum of 90 days, it was kind of balanced between longs and shorts. And data number three, miners have been holding their coins over the past seven weeks. They have not been sending their coins outside of their wallets. Yes, there may be a price that they eventually forced to sell, but it's not happening right now. So that's, That's. That's it for me. I want to hear from you guys.

All right, so I got questions, Marcel. Why. So why is the. The Korea Premium Index, like, why is that pertinent? And why is that kind of a metric that you took into consideration to show.

So.

Good question. We all think that Coinbase is the largest exchange and there's bitstamp and Kraken in Europe, but we don't really have access to what's happening in Asian markets, mostly because trading cryptocurrencies in exchange is forbidden in China. So those guys use OTC markets, they use Korean markets, so they find a way to circumvent that. But there's no direct way to measure how is the demand going on Asian markets, specifically in China. So what the Korean premium tells us is that when there's money coming from abroad, like other countries, or retail is going to a frenzy, the price in Korean markets gets to be traded above the level that's been trading at Coinbase, bitstamp and Kraken and the other way around. So it's important to go gouge the sentiment in Asia.

Okay, that's good to know. I did not know that.

Do you think a lot of the data is pointing to, like, weakness from the retail markets especially?

It's a mixed feel, Jordan. As I said, there hasn't been a Korean premium over the past seven or eight weeks. But considering that the markets bitcoin at least dropped 40% and most of the altcoins dropped 60%, and the premium hasn't gone to the negative side, meaning they're not desperate enough to sell below the prices seen in Coinbase Kraken bitstamp, I'd say it's a mild bear market. Had it been really bear, if the prices of Bitcoin plunged like 80% in two months, we would see the data much more bearish than what's actually showing us.

So, Marcel, based on these charts and based on the overall picture, do you have a sense of where the bias is in terms of up or down in the short term?

Yes, I'll Say, I've been hearing that the average cost of mining lies around 22, 24,000. And we all know that Tesla and MicroStrategy, their average price is around $30,000. So investors start to think, well, if Miners price is $22,000 and Tesla MicroStrategy average price is 30, maybe if somewhat we don't know what's going to happen, what's going to take. If bitcoin drops to $15,000, it's going to force them to sell, it's going to cause miners to abandon and to shut down machines and it's going to be the death spiral that we've all heard in 2018 and it never happened. But most of the investors entered joining this market over the past two years. So they don't know how the adjustments, the difficulty adjustment on the bitcoin network. Worse, they don't know that Tesla and MicroStrategy are not forced to sell if Bitcoin drops to 14 or $10,000. There's no set rule for that. And both the CEOs already said they're not willing to sell at any price. But the market, there's fear in the market prevalent here. So I would say maybe $19,000, $20,000 in the worst case scenario according to, according to the data we're seeing right now.

Jonah Curry wants to know when will the bull market start? Marcel.

What he's basically asking is when we will decouple from traditional financial markets. Because the correlation between bitcoin and S and P has been above 80% for the past couple of months. So until we decouple from S and P and I don't know what's going to need to happen, we should be continuing to grind in this bear range.

And just for clarity, that range is you're saying in between 20 and 35k.

Right now, 26 and 34, 36, a $10,000 range.

Very good. All right, you heard it first from the one and only Marcel, giving you some of his insights and showing you what he dives into so that you can trade like a pro. Next thing's next, folks, we're going to dive into a couple other articles and headlines. Bitcoin recorded its eighth weekly candle and this is one of the first times this has happened in its history. So I'm going to go ahead and pull up one of this head one of these headlines this week from Bitcoin here, brought to you by Cointelegraph. If you haven't, go ahead and drop your Twitter handle in the chat for that one Month subscription of Markets Pro. We're be giving that away at the end of the show. But Danila, if you want to go ahead and pull this up, looks like we had the eighth week of a candle here. This is what we got, folks. 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8. What does this mean for bitcoin? We saw Marcel talk about the range that we're looking at. What would we, what would we expect? I'm curious to hear from Jordan or Sam. Can, can this go lower and, and if so, what does that look like and how low can it go?

You want to go first, Sam?

Well, in terms of, can it go lower? Of course it can. You know, it could always go lower. It could always get a lot worse. Again, for me, seeing eight red candles in a row is very surprising. Even during the last bear market, the extent of the decline that we've seen over the past few months has really been eye opening. Even in bear markets, we don't see this level of capitulation so consistently, so violently. We do see the violent swings, but not the consistent reds that we've been seeing for the past few months. Even during bear markets, we do tend to see large relief rallies as well, you know, so for me, I was always expecting a retracement. We haven't gotten that yet. So for me, right now you have to take the cues from what's happening in the traditional financial markets. This whole idea of bitcoin being a hedge against inflation and all that, it hasn't really played out that way. Bitcoin is highly correlated with the stock market. So if you're going to see decoupling, you know, Marcel talked about decoupling. The only way I see decoupling is if demand among long term hodlers continues to grow and you start to see more bitcoin go from weak hands to strong hands. If you see that trend and that trend accelerates, you could potentially see a flipping of that narrative. But in the meantime, I don't really see that. However, if there is one silver lining is that it seems like the Fed, certain Fed policymakers are starting to pivot in their language about interest rates. It's very, you have to kind of really parse through to really get that. But we had Bullard, we had it and we had Bostic recently talk about the potential of either pausing rate hikes in September or at least starting to think about lowering them again next year as they raise interest rates into a recession. Was what they're doing. They're causing a recession, the Fed. So any kind of language change on the Fed. I think it's going to be positive for risk assets which are extremely oversold and that could lead to a short term relief rally for crypto. But again that's a short term relief rally.

Yeah, we're seeing the dollar get to really like it's, it's the highest it's been in years and like it's, it's kind of pulled back lately but I'm expecting maybe even a little bit one more little blow off top in the dollar which anytime the dollar goes up, bitcoin goes down. So yeah, yeah, bitcoin can go lower but if you just look at the whole landscape, what can you put your money right now that isn't necessarily going to go lower? Maybe oil like WTI or I don't know, commodities, but everything like the whole markets. Global financial markets are kind of like oh well Mike, we're like crux of like a serious downturn on, on a financial, on a global scale with these markets. So okay, if we get a decoupling maybe like all markets will tank and crypto goes blow off top. That's what we're all really hoping for. It might be a little bit of Hopium juice, but I don't know, I just, I buckle up. If you got the dollar cost averaging chops do so but like this is, this is where the crypto chops are made, man. Bear markets are rough but there are a lot of the dominant percentage of the time in crypto markets is, is bear. It's like, oh, we're like sadists over here liking the pain for like the, the momentary pleasure that it gives us. But yeah, crypto can go lower so just try and hold in there, man.

Yeah. And as, as Jordan mentioned, the dollar is actually really important because there is that inverse relationship between the dollar index and bitcoin. The dollar index, you can track it using the DXY which tracks the performance of the dollar against a basket of six currencies, most notably the euro. But the DXY seems to have peaked around May 12, around 105. It's back down below 102 right now. So maybe that run up in the dollar is beginning to moderate, which historically has been fairly good for crypto and for bitcoin.

And Marcel, I think you've some insights about what's going on at the macro level from the stock markets. What are your thoughts?

Yeah, I kind of agree with Sam when we say that, okay, we don't know exactly what the decoupling is going to be, but if you stop for a minute and you think okay, so why are we buying cryptocurrencies in the first case, I'm not saying if it's Bitcoin or Ethereum or whatever coin but it's because it's a scarce digitally scarce assets and governments have no access to your wallet so there's no censor involved. Involved, no tyrants can remove your coins from your wallet. So once the governance for instance implements the CBDC which is their digital asset, coins or whatever but not using blockchains and they tell the population. So you can only spend 50% of your money in food or you can only, you need to spend at least 20% of your money in energy. Otherwise this money will be wasted, burned. This digital money will be burned. So there's got to be a reason for regular people to say okay I don't care about this anymore. I'm not using the US the CBDC of the dollar. I need to act, I need to look for an alternative. So when this happens we're gonna see a decoupling. So I don't think it's something necessary that Bitcoin or Ethereum will do but what the governments will be doing to create this panic and this mass exodus.

I see a lot of people in chat right now. We saw turbulence in financial markets is just getting started. Sounds like a lot of people are bearish in the traditional markets here chat. We got fear and greed index at 12. Where are you guys at? Are you, are you fearful right now? Are you getting greedy during these kind of moments? Because we're, we're being the antagonist during these types of times. What I'm curious to hear your thoughts. Quick takes Jordan starts off fearful or.

Greedy right now I'm being greedy man. Like I'm starting to get the dollar cost averaging urge and like this as an aside I've never seen so many regulators come out talking about regulation after this Terra Luna blow up. So I'm, I'm suspect of that like there's so much to talk about regulation. I'm like this might actually be a good thing. It might help move this train along. So.

Sam Fearful, greedy.

Yeah I think being a contrarian in this kind of market is, is usually a good thing. So if the market is this fearful I guess I'm greedy but only from the perspective of bitcoin because friends don't let friends buy alts in a falling market. As I've mentioned before I'm not going to catch any, any falling knives. So yeah that's my take on that.

Marcel.

For six months time frame, at least six months. I'm greedy. But for zero to three months I'm saying stay out of it. Just wait for a better moment.

In my humble opinion, all roads lead back to bitcoin. During the storm, you take shelter in bitcoin regardless of whether it's going up or down, you know it's going to be there for, for the long haul. That's my take on all this stuff because I got burned on Terra Luna. I'll be the first one to say it. And so I'm looking for that, that safety shelter right now. Bitcoin for me, I'm dcaing in all day long, all week long. I don't care where that price is gonna be because I got that long term vision. So I want to get into our, our next segment here. But before we do, just want to say these are the personal opinions of ourselves not represented of the greater Cointelegraph ecosystem. We appreciate everyone that's tuning in today don't like and subscribe. Turn on that notification bell. So you know when we're live and you know when you can get the hottest takes on the Internet from us. But next things next, we're going to give you two tokens you should have been watching this week. And guess what? If you had had that markets Pro platform in your pocket, on your phone, on your desktop, you could have spotted some of these trades. Guys. This could have been huge for you on those Vortex scores in those newsquake. So let's go ahead and jump into Our markets Pro2 tokens you should have been watching this week. Foreign. It's clay token folks. And if you would have caught the newsquake, those are those automated alerts that instantly notify our users about market moving events. And so what happened this week? Well, on May 16, a newsquake informed Markets Pro users that Huobi Global would list clay token. On May 18th time that news quake, the price was 39 cents and then it ripped up to 44 cents after that listing. That's a 12.8% gain. And when we're in these types of markets, you are going to take those swing trades. If you can get that 12% gain in a day and you're able to get in on that, that's why you use markets Pro, bear market, bull market. We don't give a rip. We're here for it. All right folks, the next token that we have this week is knc. And what happened? Well, the vortex score, which is a comparison between its current market and social conditions. The past this thing clocked up in the green area. What does the green area mean? It means it's 80 or above and 80 is considered confidently bullish. 30 indicates historically bearish conditions. And so what happened? Well, this week we saw that Vortex scores flash green and it alerted Markets Pro subscribers and that price shot up from 149 to 275. That's an 84% increase. That's tremendous. I, I don't think you could ask for anything better right now in these market conditions. And if you have Markets Pro, you're able to get this, you get a notification anytime one of these events happens. And that's why we're trying to highlight this. We want you to win. Help us help you. And that's why we're going to give you a one month subscription of Markets Pro. So make sure you drop that Twitter handle in the chat because we're giving one away here at the end of the show. But folks, if you want swag, look, we got it. Cointelegraph store.cointelegraph.com make sure you get it. All right, we're gonna put up this. Do we have a poll today? Are we bearish or bullish? Do we want to get a, a poll up bearish or bullish? And we're gonna see what, what folks have. Now I want to hear closing thoughts here. Let's start off with Jordan, where what are your final words for today's show? And then we'll give away our winner for the one month subscription to Markets Pro.

Well, as I've said in past weeks, it's, it's good to get yourself out of just being focused on crypto. Like this is going to be a really challenging time. Even if we get a really rip, roar and blow off top, there's going to be a collapse after that which will put us back where we are right now. So just learn to kind of navigate these choppy crypto waters. Understand that a lot of the time is spent in a bearish market down. Those are the best opportunities to buy though. So just if you can, dollar cost average or just kind of collect your pool your money and wait till the future when we actually start getting the turnaround and that kind of gets verified on charts and stuff. But yeah, other than that, just try and enjoy life. Don't focus on your crypto portfolio too much and just find enjoyment outside in the nice sunny weather if it's summer for you, like it is here in the U.S.

Very good. We got that poll up. Don't forget to vote bearish or bullish? What are you right now? Sam, closing thoughts for today's show.

Yeah, well this negative sentiment, this downward action, this is really makes me feel at home. This is usually what it feels like in the crypto market. You know, the rips higher are tend to be the exceptions, not the rules. But you know, take solace in the fact that we're early adopters in an industry that's going to become, become probably the next sector of the S P500 one day. So you can consider crypto to be like the dot com era back for, back for tech or for the the Internet era back back in the late 90s. There's a lot of comparables there. Again you need to have a longer term horizon. You know wealth isn't usually created very, very quickly. Just know that there's broader macro forces outside of our control. You know, we can't control what the Fed does, we can't control what's happening geopolitically. All that is weighing. But again if you're holding quality projects, if you're in Bitcoin, the future is bright. We just have to navigate the next, probably the next six months to see what's going to be on the other side of that from the perspective of macro monetary policy, the economy, etc, not an easy time. But you should be positioned accordingly and not overextended in terms of your exposure to a highly volatile sector.

And Marcel well, but I'll just say that if you think that the SpaceX and Tesla CEOs and CFOs are stupid people or micro sailor, the longest running CEO of a listed company ever in history are dumb people for holding Bitcoin at 30,000 and seeing it collapse to $25,000 and not making a sale. If you think they're idiots. I think you gotta be a scientist at MIT or some very special person to think about that because those guys are savvy. Those guys are seeing the devaluation of the dollar because the inflation is not the CPI metric. The inflation is the amount of money that has been printed over the last two or three years. And 40% of the money in circulation has been printed over the past two years. So if you just hold your dollars in a bank account, you're effectively losing money. 10, 15%, 20% every year. And you don't want that to your money, you don't want that to your holdings. So bitcoin and cryptocurrencies is a new system. It might work, it might not work, but at least is an Alternative. So give it some space. 5%, 10% of your portfolio for the long term. If you're not a trader, don't try to trade cryptos. The volatility is too high. You're gonna get burned. So just invest for the long term.

Hallelujah. Amen. All right. I love it, love it, love it. Getting me jazzed up. I mean, I. If you're in crypto, you're in it for the long haul. These are the moments where the, this makes you five years from now. And living through these, these times of adversity, I think builds character. And that's, that's what we want here in the, the crypto world. To go ahead, Jordan.

Yeah, on that point, Vincent, like, for all those people, like, I wish I would have bought Bitcoin at 100 bucks. I'm like, welcome to what it's like to buy bitcoin at a hundred dollars. Like, this is, this is what you get. This kind of market is what you get when you get in early. All right. So just take it and enjoy it.

Exactly right. There is a life outside of crypto, but we appreciate everyone for tuning in. It looks like we got to give away that one month subscription markets pro. I don't. Let's see. Let's check the chat. Do we have any Twitter handles in there? I'm not seeing any. If I've. Literally the first person that drops their Twitter handle in today, right now is going to win. So go ahead and do that. I'm going to give you 10 seconds to do it. To claim your prize, you could make an 80% trade just by getting a free one month subscription market. Is it Jonah? At Jonah? Yeah, it's just at Jonah. Okay. At Jonah. And folks, we got 56% of people here. Bearish. What does that tell you? Be the contrarian dollar cost average, not financial advice. All right, folks, well, that's going to do it. For today's market report. We appreciate you jumping in. Until next Tuesday, 12pm Eastern. We're here like and subscribe Coin Telegraph on YouTube. Till next time, folks. Over and out. Sa. It.