Has Crypto Won Already? Scaramucci on XRP vs SEC

I think the SEC will eventually lose Solana, Aptos, Algorand. I think those things survive. There's no reason why Bitcoin couldn't be a 10x asset from here.

Earlier this month, a US court ruled that the crypto token XRP, is not a security. The ruling was largely interpreted as a landmark victory for crypto over the US securities and Exchange Commission, which has been cracking down on digital assets by labeling them as unregistered securities. But what is the broader significance of the XRP ruling? Which other crypto assets could benefit from it? And does it mean that the crypto industry can successfully fight back against the SEC crackdown? To answer these questions, I talked with Anthony Scaramucci, the founder and managing partner at Skybridge Capital. I'm Giovanni. On this show, we challenge the ideas that shape the world of crypto. In each episode, we assess a crypto narrative, a macroeconomic outlook, or a potentially disruptive technology. Only the most solid ideas will make it to the other side. Let's talk about the latest XRP ruling. So that was definitely a big victory for Ripple, but what do you think is going to be the broader impact on the cryptocurrency industry?

Well, I think the first thing we have to look at, Giovanni, is whether or not the SEC is going to appeal the decision. And then what would happen at the appellate court? There's a lot of people that are saying that they're going to appeal it, but I predict that they will not appeal it, because if you look at the appellate court, the appellate court has more conservative judges, frankly, and the likelihood of it getting overturned, I think, is quite small. So I don't think the SEC wants to go through the further embarrassment of appealing it. And so just stepping back, they resoundingly lost that case. And I know there's a lot of speculation. Well, they didn't technically lose it because there were some things said inside the case that defined certain things as a security versus others. But plaintively in the decision was the Howey test. And basically what our current SEC commissioner, Gary Gensler, said back in the 2018, 2019 timeframe when he was an MIT professor, he said that many of these cryptocurrencies did not meet the Howey test for purposes of assigning the definition security to those assets. And so the great irony here is Mr. Gensler, because he's politically expedient, he's now decided that what he said, based on the facts and based on the law in 2018 and 19, he no longer believes. And so he's zealously prosecuting these cases. But he's going to be further embarrassed because the good news about the United States, due to judicial impartiality, they're reading the law exactly the way it was written and they're interpreting it exactly the way it was written. And so he's going to continue to lose those cases. So that's why the markets are up. I see it as a very positive sign for cryptocurrencies in the future.

This ruling is likely to have a positive impact on further cases. The SEC is moving against other cryptocurrencies. So what are the specific crypto assets that according to you, are going to benefit the most out of this ruling?

Well, I think, I think the two major crypto assets, Bitcoin and Ethereum, are going to be likely the ones that benefit the most in terms of their durability and their long term scalability. I think you did notice that Solana had a very big move. Solana is a very fast token, it's a very fast protocol. And I think it's a survivor. I will fully disclose everybody listening. I own a lot of Solana and I'm a big believer in it. And so the fact that XRP is not a security, I think that means that Solana, even though the SEC says it's a security, is not a security. But if you said to me, okay, who's going to survive? It's obviously Bitcoin and Ethereum. There'll be securities like Solana, Aptos, Algorand. I think those things survive and I think they go on to build great communities. And I think they get demarcated because of this ruling as non securities. And I think that has positive ramifications for the industry for sure.

And another issue here that I want to talk about is institutional adoption. So when we talked last time, it was back in August 2021, so almost two years ago. Back then you were making the point that institutional adoption was an overhyped narrative. You said that large pension funds and endowments had very little appetite for crypto at bitcoin. So now BlackRock has applied for a spot Bitcoin ETF. So first of all, do you think it has good chance to go through and do you think that if so that is the moment when pension funds and endowments are going to describe?

Yeah, so good, really good question. And so I think, I think, you know, not to pat myself on the back, but when you asked me that question two years ago, if you look at the unfolding two years, I think I was right. There wasn't a lot of demand. There was hype and talk about demand, but it really did not materialize. But I think now if you're asking me that question again in 2023, I do think there is demand. I think there is a door opening, sort of like you can see the light shaft coming through the door, where there's a lot of institutions, if they get greater regulatory clarity, they will adopt this asset. So, and I think all of that's coming, it's not quite there yet. But somebody like Larry Fink as an example, applying for a bitcoin etf, what would be an example of that he could get rejected. I'm not saying that it'll go through on the first time because this commission is very negative, but man, the courts, it'll be very interesting to see what happens because they have approved a bitcoin futures, Giovanni, they have approved a bitcoin leverage futures where you can now go 2 to 1 on your Bitcoin exposure in a Bitcoin ETF. And so, you know, grayscale wrote a letter to the judge saying this is obviously arbitrary and gracious. Just explain that to your viewers and listeners. There is a clause in U.S. administrative law that a regulator can be arbitrary with the way they rule. So if here's the law and the regular says, well, it's okay to have a bitcoin futures etf, but it's not okay to have a bitcoin cash etf, well the regulator going to have a really good reason pursuant to that law as to why, because if they don't, there's something called arbitrary capricious. And that standard is such where a judge can say, geez, you're really not being fair. So to me, I think the SEC will eventually lose. It'll be interesting to see what happens here with the grayscale case. But if they lose that case, obviously Black Rock is going to get their ETF approved immediately. This may not all unfold until the first half of 2024, but if we're sitting here a year from now, and hopefully you'll invite me back on your podcast, if we're sitting here a year from now, will there be a cash bitcoin ETF in the United States? I believe that there will be.

When we talked last time, you said that bitcoin was going to reach 1 billion users by the end of 2025. So that was back in August 2021. So in between then and now, we had a long bear market. The FTX collapse and many other unfortunate events that impacted heavily Crypto. So this, despite that, are you still convinced of your prediction?

Dan Tapiero, very good friend of mine, his research team says that bitcoin right now has between 300 and 340 million users. And so to put that into context, that's the Internet back in 1998. So if we were sitting here talking 25 years ago, how much saturation did the Internet have globally? In 1998, about 2% of the people on planet Earth had access to the Internet. Now, obviously, that's changed a lot over the last 25 years. And so we're sitting here now in 2023, when I made that prediction, there was just under 100 million users. There's now 340 or so million users. I mean, that's our best guess. And so you're telling me in the next two years, do I think we can exponentially go from 340 to a billion? I do believe that. And by the way, I will point out that if you get regulatory clarity in the United States, you will accelerate that adoption. So, so we'll have to see what happens. But I'm going to stick to that prediction. I think that's going to be accurate. And if that's the case, there's no reason why bitcoin couldn't be a 10x asset from here. There's no reason why. So, you know, in five years today, not 2025, but we're sitting out in 2028. I don't, I don't see why Bitcoin couldn't be 4 to $500,000, 300,000 by the end of 25 before to 500,000 by the, by the end of 28.

Of course. And yeah, just to close the conversation, I just have a very quick question about something that is going on in the US so Ron DeSantis just came out with a statement. He said that if he is going to win in the US Presidential elections, he will ban central bank digital currencies in the sense that basically he's very much against the CBDCs and they won't become a reality in case he gets elected. What do you think about this? And yeah, do you think that the CBDCs are going to eventually become a.

Reality in the U.S. okay, so since we're in the prediction business, Ron DeSantis will not be President of the United States. So we don't have to worry about that. The chair that I'm sitting on is more exciting and more magnetic and more charismatic than Ron DeSantis. Now he's talking about banning central bank digital currency. So I'm a libertarian. I'm not for central bank digital currencies because of what Governor DeSantis is saying. We don't want this type of social control. We don't want people that could eventually get involved in the government that could enforce their values on us and maybe shut down our accounts or they don't like some of our behavior. They could take money from us very easily with the central bank digital currency. But I got bad news for everybody. You're not going to stop technology in the world. So if people are worried about AI, well, I've got bad news for you. We're going to have AI. It's just going to happen. So if you study human history, if you have the technology, the technology will be used and deployed. And so there will be events. The central bank digital currency in China, other places there will be. Will there eventually be one in the United States? I predict that there will be. But I think what is unique about the United States is that we have built a check and balance system over the last 250 years that could prevent the things that Governor DeSantis or libertarians like me are worried about. So I think it's very politically naive, and it's naive in terms of a lack of understanding of human history to just blanketly say, you know, I'm going to be the president of the United States and ban central bank digital currencies.

Yeah. And it's also very interesting what you said about technology being unstoppable. If we assume that CBDCs eventually will happen, we are also sure that bitcoin cannot be stopped by any government, cannot be banned.

So, you know, that's a technology you and I like.

It's.

People don't like it. They're trying to stop it. It can't be stopped. Now, there's a technology that we don't like, you and I don't like, but other people like, guess what? That's not going to be stopped either. You know, it's just the way it works.

Yeah. Yeah, I agree. Okay. Anthony, it was a cool conversation. Thanks a lot for coming on show.

Thank you again for. Sam.