Veteran trader Peter Brandt says 98-99% of altcoins will become worthless and focuses on capital preservation instead. He plans to buy bitcoin in three blocks at $3000, $2400, and $1200, using moving-average crossovers to time entries and expecting a bottom within six months.
Questions this video answers
Over 40 years.
98 to 99% of the coins out there today.
Approximately $3,000, $2,400, and $1,200 (he also references $2,900 as a commonly cited level).
14-week and 15-week simple moving averages and a simple moving-average crossover system.
About 8% of his total capital.
I am a bitcoin guy. I believe in the bitcoin narrative. I think 98 to 99% of the coins out there today are going to eventually be worthless. There's a chance that we are going to bottom in the low threes and that's why I want to have an ownership position here. This is a marathon. Trading is a marathon, it's not a sprint.
Peter Brent is a veteran trader and technical Analyst with over 40 years experience in trading commodities. He is the author of several books on trading, including the Best Selling Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader. We reached out to Peter and asked him how traders should behave in this seemingly never ending crypto bear market.
Oftentimes in trading, keeping your money intact is the best thing you can do. And we've seen a tremendous amount of wealth deteriorate in this bear market, in the coins and crypto markets. And those who went on the sidelines back in December, January, February and decided they're going to sit on their cash are far better off than the person that's become an active trader and trying to be defensive and jumping around from coin to coin. I don't advise that. So capital preservation sometimes is really the goal of a trader. It's almost as if fiat is a dirty word, it's a disease within the crypto community. So sometimes fiat is the best place you can be. And we've seen that now in the last 11 months, those holding fiat have been far better off than those stubbornly deciding that bitcoin's gonna go to $100,000. So therefore I'll sit through anything the market gives me. I'm a trader, I think it's ludicrous to sit through 90% declines in the market, especially when you have a market that's so clearly advertised its tops starting in December with Bitcoin. I think those who have become active in trading will miss the big moonshot when it comes because they're going to be so accustomed to having to be in and out, be looking at short term indicators, to be an indicator driven trader, to be looking at one hour charts, six hour charts, three hour charts, that if and when bitcoin really then reemerges and goes back into a parabolic move, they're going to be on the sidelines. I'm starting to become interested in being a long term buyer and holder of bitcoin, but of bitcoin, I have no time in my life for the other macro cats and the altcoins. I'm a bitcoin guy. I believe in the bitcoin narrative. I think 98 to 99% of the coins out there today are going to eventually be worthless. And it seems like all the experts know that their pet coin is not going to be one of them. Well, good luck with that one. I'm a technician, I look at charts. The interesting thing is the social media world is filled with people who say technical analysis doesn't work in the crypto markets. Au contraire. They're the absolute best charting markets that we have today. They're wonderfully compliant with classical charting principles. And so I'm going to look at charts to give me that indication. I've had the feeling I've been calling for 2900 bitcoin for a very long period of time. And do we have a chance to bottom before that? Quite frankly, I think that one or two scenarios is likely. We won't get to 2900 because it's become a popular number. 3000 has become a talked about number. And oftentimes when you have a market that everybody's saying, I can't wait to buy that 3,000, you don't get there. But I think if we can break down through hard through 2900, I think Bitcoin can go back to 1200. It's been a classic decline. The decline has been almost a perfect fractal so far to the decline that we saw. I'm looking at a chart here from 2014 into early 2015. The big drop that we had back then from just under 1200 all the way back toward the 200 level. If you analyze that and you take that decline apart, the bitcoin market is almost an identical fractal to that bear market. And based on that fractal, we should be in the final leg down the capitulation. The only concern I have is when I look on social media, there is just people have not become discouraged. People are just still committed to the long side. And my experience is bitcoin really, really is very similar to any other market. In any other market that I've dealt with that have had major bear trends. What happens is everybody needs to get. As long as you have hope and encouragement, you can't bottom either we don't get as low as people are waiting to buy it. In other words, we stay above 3,000 and have some sort of bottoming pattern here and really put together the final part of the fractal, or we blow through these buy orders and eventually blow these people out and really make the market discouraged and basically give up on it. It's impossible to catch the top price, impossible to catch the bottom price. If I can have my average price somewhere within 15% of what becomes the bottom, I'm happy. And so I have no compulsion to catch the bottom. But I think that I've started buying and based on my plan, I'll continue to buy as low as it goes. But what I'm really looking for are just some real simple technical indicators. 14 week moving average. 15 week moving average. It's impossible for a market to have a major advance without being confirmed by a simple moving average. Now, it could be an exponential moving average. It could be all kinds of fancy types of moving averages. But I think simple moving average system is going to be very, very smart way to trade bitcoin going forward because it will absolutely be impossible for bitcoin to incur and experience a major advance in price without confirmation from simple moving averages. I think to the bottom we could be within six months, maybe even, I would say within six months of a bottom, there's a chance that we are going to bottom in the low threes. And that's why I want to have an ownership position here. It won't bother me if it goes lower. I'll only increase my ownership position. And so I have set aside my money in three blocks. I have three nest aids of money that I'm using to commit to the bitcoin market. The third block of money is buying bitcoin on a scale down. I own it some already, like I said, 8% of the total capital. I'll buy more bitcoin close to 3,000. I'll buy more bitcoin at 2,400. I'll buy more bitcoin at 1200 if it gets there. So that's a third of the money, a third of the money. I am going to be moving in and out of bitcoin based on a simple moving average crossover system. So basic, simple technical approach to market. And a third of the money I'm going to employ based on what I would define as classical charting principles. It's the basic principles of reading a chart. The charts have been very reliable. Seeing that we are in a big bear market and you know, they've been screaming. They were screaming short at the top. They were screaming short here a month or so ago when the big decline started. And. But it's too late to be a new trader and start playing around with the short side. It's just, I don't advise it, you know, now with the 85% decline, I'm advising people make a game plan. Commit a sum of money that you know you can lose and start being willing to commit to it. Don't be trading the altcoins. Trade the real deal. The legacy coin is bitcoin. Don't become conned into all of these other little nonsense coins and you're going to miss the fat. You know, this is a marathon. Trading is a marathon. It's not a sprint. And so you don't keep placing your bet and jumping your bet from horse to horse based on who's leading the race at, you know, at any given furlough. Cointelegraph like subscribe and Hodl. Sat.
