Inflation fears or ETF driving Bitcoin’s price? Will ETH break ATH? | The Market Report w/ Big Cheds

Sam foreign.

Hello friends and welcome back to another episode of the Market Report. I another day, another bitcoin all time high. I'm your host Benton and we are joined again by resident experts Jordan Finiseth and Marcel Peckman. If you don't know Jordan, he uses his background in psychology and human behavior to spot emerging trends in the crypto markets. Marcel Peckman applies his 17 years of experience trading derivatives options and futures to the crypto derivatives markets. Our guest today is a CEO and consultancy of the educational platform. We're gonna have big ched's on today. He's an expert trader and what a huge week we had so far. We were on yesterday, we're talking about bitcoin. We appreciate everyone for tuning in. What is going on today? What's up Marcel? What's up Jordan? How are we doing today guys?

It's good to be right after, I don't know, six months of a mini bear market, finally see your friends saying, okay, well you are right. 50,000 was cheap. 40,000 was ultra cheap. So it's good to see those no corners crying and finally trying to accept the reality. It's funny and it's good.

Yeah, there's a lot of money still sitting on the sidelines waiting to get in this game. This is when it's gonna get fun. A little bit anxious, but it's gonna be fun.

Huge week and this is exciting times. I think everyone is, is super pumped to see what is going on and what's gonna happen next. We appreciate everyone for tuning in today. Make sure you chime in, we want to answer your questions. We're going to be interacting with you all all day. Looks like we got Bill Green chiming in today. What's up Bill? How we doing today? Thanks for joining the show. Super excited to have you here. And let's go ahead and kind of run through things here for the market news that we're going to cover this week. Obviously huge news with the bitcoin etf. All time highs for bitcoin. What's going to happen next? If you haven't liked and subscribed, make sure you do so now we're on YouTube, coin, telegraph. But let's go ahead and jump into our market news segment. All right, folks, and those just joining, we appreciate you tuning in today. Looks like we got a couple folks from around the globe. Tell us where you're tuning in from. Where are we, where are we coming in from? Are we in Europe? Are we in Asia? Are we in the States? We in South America? Where are we tuning in. We want to hear from you, make sure you're chiming in in those comments today. First things first, let's get this party started with a little bitcoin chart. All right.

What?

Look at that. Look at this. This is the daily chart. And all you see is green since October. I'm going to pull this up and right there, September 30th to October 1st. Look at that green candle every single day. You just love to see that. Looks like we're in this little ascending wedge right now. We're at the top. Who knows what's going to happen. Or we can continue to go up or we bounce back down then go back up. We're going to find out. But I want to get some headlines up from Cointelegraph today. One of the biggest news of the week is is JP Morgan says inflation concerns, not ETFs are driving Bitcoin price jump. So Marcel and Jordan, this is a hot take from J.P. morgan. Do we believe anything that J.P. morgan has to say about bitcoin? Jordan, what do you, what do you think about this headline here?

Yeah, let's go back and fire your people that trade bitcoin. Jamie Dimon. No, like that. I think inflation is definitely concerned but the recent price action has been because of the bitcoin ETF that there's so much excitement around that what led up to the that big green candles you just showed that might have been somewhat inflation concerns and the fact that people are realizing what bitcoin can offer. But yeah, don't listen to what Jamie Dimon or JP Morgan says about bitcoin. What do you think, Marcel?

I like that phrase for forget what they say, focus on what they do. Right now big banks are offering intermediary or custodian or ETF products or funds but they're not really buying bitcoin or buying Ethereum. We are some steps before that. And when that happens, you're not going to see a $2,000 candle, $3,000 candle when JP Morgan starts buying for the bank itself. You're going to see a $50,000 candle up to 150, up to 200, up to $300,000. So it's going to be a game changer. I don't know if the regulation is stopping it to happen if adoption is too early. But it's not a case of if yes or no, it's a cause of when it's going to happen.

Great points. And so I real quick I'm going to turn to the chat here. We got Folks tuning in from all over Honduras, Vegas, usa, we got Asia, Cameroon, Africa. We appreciate every one of you tuning in today. Super excited to have you here. We're obviously talking bitcoin. Some huge news. JP Morgan making some comments. I'm gonna pull up this article real quick again and just want to read a few excerpts. So bitcoin broke its all time high price level following the launch of Pro Shares Bitcoin strategy exchange traded fund veto on Tuesday. But JP Morgan Chase strategists believe the key driver behind the price jump is investor concern over inflation. So this does bring up my next question for us in general, like, so do you guys view Bitcoin as like a safe haven from inflation and is inflation a big concern right now? Jordan, what do you think about this whole inflation topic?

Yeah, inflation is a big concern. Just anybody paying attention can seeing that supply chain, supply chains are kind of having problems, not as much stuff out there available. So the things that are available are kind of increasing in price. And yeah, people that have, I know lots of people are just, are really starting, just going to the supermarket and buying food is becoming a problem for them because it's costing more. So if people are starting to realize you can put some money in something like Bitcoin, it increases in value over time, it keeps up or outpaces inflation. Whereas not even like gold or the dollar are keeping up with inflation right now. And that's what has a lot to do with manipulation and stuff like that. So yeah, it's a problem. And inflation concerns are playing into bitcoin and the whole cryptocurrency ecosystem. But there's a whole global thing going on right now that like everybody's kind of got to deal with. What do you think, Marcel?

I, I disagree. Jordan, let's say you're from Honduras or you're from Brazil like me, and the inflation here is not like 6%, it's more like 20, 25, 30% per year. So are you gonna try to buy Euros or Swiss francs or US dollar or are you gonna buy Bitcoin for the Brazilian, for the Honduran or for the whatever third country population? They view the US dollar or the euro or, or the Swiss franc as a safe investment protective from inflation. And they view Bitcoin as something risky. Even though it's been going up for the past 12 years, they see it as a risky stuff. So I don't think inflation is what's going to drive the adoption. I think it's going to be the cbdc, the central bank, digital Currency.

How so?

Yeah.

Yeah, yeah. The CBDC gives total control to the central banks. For example, they can issue money that expires in 30 days or they can say that 50% of your salary must only be spent on food and basic stuff, otherwise it's not accepted. So they can program the money the way they want. They can even put insert the negative interest rates. Like if you leave money in your bank account or your wallet or whatever, 2% per month, it's gonna die, it's gonna expire. So this is really gonna upset the population and they're gonna look for something that's out of government control.

Okay, so you don't think that they'll kind of look to bitcoin until, until those other ones they released the cbdc?

Yeah, I think inflation is not a huge concern for most of the population. And for those who are concerned, they will buy the dollar or the euros. Don't you think, Benton?

I mean for me in the States, I'm sitting here looking at my cash inside of this traditional system and inflation is absolutely kind of like crushing any kind of long term view for me. And so what am I looking at? Where can I put my cash into an asset that will its value in the long term? I'm looking at Bitcoin. And so like from my perspective, I think that's kind of like how I view inflation. I don't think it's like an immediate killer. I think it's in the long term it's a killer of your wealth.

But dude, you live in a basement. Your fathers pay you alimony and whatever. You're not most of the population here.

Let's, let's, let's, let's, let's throw it out to the chat. We got people from all over the world here. Yeah, yeah. Comment for us, like what are you guys in the chat feel? Is it inflation causing you to go to bitcoin or are you just all crypto heads like us or what's going to push you, do you think is going to push the people in your country to more into bitcoin and cryptocurrencies in the future? Is it like, is it inflation or is it as Marcel saying, when they get control over everything, people are going to be like, let's get out of this crap.

Especially I want to hear the opinion of the guy from, who said he was from Canada where the government doesn't even allow who's not vaccinated to leave the country, which is an absurd. I want to hear the opinion of the guy from Canada Yeah, well, I.

Have an extra opinion here. Let's pull up this other article. Well, Paul Tudor Jones says something, he says, I think to me the number one issue facing Main street investors is inflation. And it's pretty clear to me inflation is not transitory. So I, I think, I mean I think inflation is here to stay and I don't think it's going anywhere. You know, Paul Tudor Jones is saying this. Let's hear what you guys have to say in the chat. You know, is inflation, you know, is it here to stay? Yes or no? So I think that's going to handle that one. But I want to shift gears here. Huge news this week with Bitcoin ETFs here in the States. Specifically, what will this ETF do for Bitcoin? Marcel, tell us what does this mean? How does, like what is the next steps and like what is the outlook for bitcoin now that there's an ETF in the States?

Okay, I'm not personally hyped about this futures based etf, the Pro Shares one and the Valkyrie one that has been approved because this instrument is not made for long term holding. What's the problem with the futures based etf? First of all, when you buy the etf, the Pro Shares is going to buy CME futures which is not really buying btc, fiscal BTC and living on cold storage. It's just a financial contract, a bet between two parties. And what's the problem that when a financial bet between two parties become so big, like $5 billion, $10 billion, which is bigger than what's the spot volume in a normal day or at least in a couple of hours. The problem is that somebody can manipulate these bets and create huge price difference between the futures and the spot. So we've seen this in the oil markets, the WTI oil markets, the futures already traded $40 negative when the spot market was trading at 3 or 30, 50 or 60 above. So the futures market is not an instrument meant for long term holding. So the holders are likely going to have negative surprises along the way. So I don't think that's a really, I'm not happy about it.

Yeah, to me it seems more like a, a chance for them to try and get a hold of control of Bitcoin. Like you don't have to buy the actual bitcoin for this etf. So people that they're going to convince all these people, pension funds and stuff to try and get into that, to not really own Bitcoin. I'm more looking forward to the future Bitcoin ETFs that actually hold physical bitcoin and stuff like that. That's when we'll really see the price pump up, I think because in coins will be taken off the market and not just betting on the future price kind of a thing.

Yeah. And so I'm curious to hear from our audience as well. Like what do you think this Bitcoin ETF means for bitcoin? Does this mean the floodgates are going to open? Are institutions going to just start piling into bitcoin? What are your thoughts? We want to hear from you, let us know what you think and what your experience has been and we're going to pull up your comments and we're going to answer all those questions. I do want to pull up the article relating to this though regarding the Bitcoin ETF shares here. The biggest thing that we saw was the Pro shares. Bitcoin ETF had beaten an 18 year old record for the fastest fund to a billion dollars under management. I think that's pretty impressive. So my next question for you Marcel is what does this mean when other ETFs start to get approved? Does that mean that some of these other ETFs will, will kind of pace the same way that that proshares did?

Well, usually the first one gets like 70 to 80% market share as we've seen in Canada with a proposed etf. But Canada is a whole different story because it's a fiscal etf so it doesn't run that risk of collateralization and experts that I mentioned of the futures based ETF. That being said, if it keeps below $5 billion AUM, I don't think it's going to be a problem. So in two days we captured over $1 billion. So I think it's going to surpass easily $5 billion and that's going to be a problem for the rollover and that's going to create some underperformances versus the spot bitcoin. So I, I'm not hyped about it but yeah, it's positive for industry.

And I think your, your friend from Canada actually responded to you here. So he said I have more trust in crypto markets rather than existing traditional markets, sadly. And I, I'm all in on that. I feel you, I feel you. John Frey. I'm sorry if I mispronounced that, but yes, I would say traditional markets, you know, it's, it's one of those things. I think we all love crypto for a reason. I, so my next question In Jordan, I'm going to ask this one to you is like, do you think an ETH ETF is coming next? And if so, like is that going to be six months, a year? Like what do you think a time frame for something like that would look like?

Yeah, whether or not they do like a bitcoin spot ETF or an ETH futures ETF first, I don't know. They might do that just to kind of get control of futures for eth. But yeah, it will eventually roll out just because we've heard a lot of institutional talk about the fact that they starting to invest in Ethereum. So that just seems like to me the next likely outcome. There's no really any other cryptos out there that are worth qualifying for an ETF at this point besides Ethereum? I think so, yeah. I don't know when it's going to happen. Well, the fact that this, this one got released, especially if we see a bitcoin spot ETF get released, I think it'll happen in the near future just because the whole thing's moving forward. But that's good. That could be wishful thinking to my partner. No, it took like how many years for the Bitcoin ETFs to come out? What do you think Marcel, you disagree?

Apparently no. Gensler, the ETF chairman was very clear that he was not ready to approve the fiscal Bitcoin etf and he has his reasons, but I don't know if they're valid or not. But he was pretty clear saying that he was only going to approve the futures based ETF because it was not a new instrument that needed to be approved. So I don't think the fiscal ETF is going to be approved over the next 12 months. Maybe the Ethereum one, the, the futures based, possibly, but not the physical one.

Why do you think they don't want to do physical ones?

I have no idea. Biden? I don't know. No idea.

Do you think that's like a validation for the cryptocurrency, like to actually let people do it? That's like saying like, yeah, this is okay to buy people they don't want.

Yeah.

Even like I hear with the JP Morgan and stuff, they are the JP Morgan's the biggest bank in the us possibly the world. Like they are the US doll. They're the US dollar is their baby kind of a thing. They're not going to really promote anything. That's why they've been all over it. And Jay Diamond's been badmouthing bitcoin in my opinion. But eventually like Bitcoin's gonna win out, so we'll see.

Yeah. Well, I guess while we're on the topic of of eth, I do want to talk about this because there may be some ETH heads in here just like some bitcoin maxis. We want to hear from you. Do we think ETH is going to break an all time high in the days, weeks ahead? Jordan, give us your hot take. Ethereum. What do you think there's a good.

Chance if, yeah, if this market keeps running hot, it's going to get to a new all time? I wouldn't doubt it. I think we got a good couple months of like fun run up here, so. Yeah.

Marcel, what's your take on Ethereum right now?

I keep my $5,000 to $6,000 top for this current cycle because they're gonna delay for sure the ETH 2.0, which is shadow for the end of the year. It's not gonna happen this year.

Oh, wow. I think he's going to 10k. 10k or bust. Let's go. It's. I think it's gonna happen. Folks, we want to hear from you. Is Eth going to 10K? Yes or no? Yes or no? Put them in the comments. I want to hear them. I want to hear from you. Let's see.

I just want to reiterate my point yesterday. Like people, keep a calm head. When this market starts running, take your profits. That's not investment advice. But we all like, I don't like the gut punch when it goes from 60,000 to 30,000. It's going to happen again. Like just who was it?

Jim Kramer said no one went broke taking profits. So I think that's, that's very sound advice no matter how you slice it. We got a huge guest coming up. Big Chads, you guys want to learn some ta? You guys want to look at some charts? You guys want to see some price action? Let's get it going. We're going to bring on Big Chads. Let's jump into our TA special segment for today. Let's do it. All right, folks. Big Cheds is a professional trader and one of the founding analysts of Bitcoin Live, an educational platform for crypto. He also has a background in psychology, which he uses to help people deal better with FOMO and other emotional decisions and trading. Chad was also an amateur pro poker player and says that experience of risk management helps him in trading. He aims to empower people to be the best traders that they can possibly be. Big Chads thank you for joining us today. We are super, super excited to chat with you. How's it going?

Thank you for having me, man. I appreciate it. I enjoyed the conversation. Gentlemen, I was listening backstage and I enjoyed hearing your perspectives and I'm happy to be here today. So thank you.

Yeah, we are definitely curious to get some of your insights and look at some charts and, and kind of walk through a lot of what you're seeing in the market right now. So I guess we'll start with just like bitcoin in general. What in your opinion has happened over the last week and if you wouldn't mind pulling up a chart and feeling to like, kind of walk through what you're seeing right now.

Yeah, sure. I have my screen up if you just want to pop it up. We can definitely do that. So bitcoin's clearly been accelerating and we had that over the weekly time frame. We had that equilibrium, equilibrium pattern. When we set our high 64k, we set our low in this 80 day rectangle and then we set that big lower high. And now it's the level to watch, right? 52K. So we set the lower high and then we set our higher low. Weekly time frame MA50, the orange line. A simple moving average weekly chart never broke down even. You know, while the daily chart itself broke down a little bit below the MA200. We had a little bit of chop here and you know, even for a time we lost that key horizontal. The January highs and the February low really want to flip that resistance and turn it into support. So we kind of lost it here with that chop in September. But that's the thing. You get that noise on lower time frames. Weekly chart never really let up, right? Weekly chart really had that strength. And if you weren't in bitcoin, you're waiting for a ghost signal. You know, you had one on that, that lower high break at 52K. You could have entered there, set your risk at that level. That was your thesis. And, you know, after we hit that, you were, you're watching this all time high test, 64K. You know, a lot of people have been asking me and I'm on Twitter at Big Cheds, people have been asking me like, you know, what's up with altcoins, right? Is it time to play altcoins? And when the money's going into the king or going into bitcoin, that's not the right time to play altcoins. But when bitcoin pauses and consolidates, you see the money flow out, you see it first usually first flow into Ethereum and we can talk about that. We just had that beautiful all time high test on Ethereum and it flows into other altcoins. Hopefully you're playing ones with relative strength, ones that had been stronger before that consolidation, like Saul, like Luna, like some of these other things. And what was interesting, you know, we had that ETF and the other two guests probably know a little bit more about the fundamentals than I do. I just study price action. It all flows into the price action for me. But I was expecting some type of like a blow off move with that all time high. We didn't get it actually. We hadn't had a nice kind of controlled rise. And if we go a little more granular here on the daily chart you can notice the green lines. An exponential moving average exponential means it gives more price weighting to the most recent candle. And you can see as it's been rising here, it's been using that 8 EMA as support. And actually even with today's volatility where it dropped down to 62K, you know, right off that 8 EMA, so it's having actually a nice controlled rise making that new all time high above 64K. But what I noticed last night, I noticed that some of the other alts started to run, you know, and especially Ethereum and that's Ethereum versus Bitcoin. But here, Ethereum on the USD pair, Ethereum was broke out of that really that 4K level started to break over that 4K level yesterday. And that was a little bit of a clue that some volatility was probably coming in Bitcoin, you know, because you need that, you need that money from, from Bitcoin to flow into the other alts for them to really have that kind of run. So you know, how do you know when these things are going to happen? You know, after you make an all time high you're probably going to consolidate for a little bit. And we got that consolidation money flowed into alts and then you know, we talked about Ethereum hitting all time high and then we had some weird kind of low time frame like, like a cascade in some of the, of the servers or the exchanges rather where like bitcoin dropped to like 10k and binance us. I don't know if anybody really filled. When you see those, when you have those moments of kind of short term, short time frame volatility, people tend to panic. And so when that happened I actually took a little bit of a short just to protect my long positions. When I saw that happen and I actually just covered that shorter closed out the short really at 62k on the EMA 8 EMA 8 tag. So you've got this cycle where bitcoin runs, Bitcoin pauses, all coins will run and that's like the normal cycle. And then we added that kind of exchange volatility today. And so that really caused, you know, this further consolidation we're seeing right now. You know, is bitcoin going to roll over a little bit here? You know, probably not. Certainly not as long as we're holding our rising, moving average support that rising demand. But when it does pause and hopefully, you know, if it does something nice and neat in the short term, if it can just kind of churn here for a while, maybe do a short term ascending triangle or some type of consolidation pattern that will give a little bit of a breathing room, you can allow some of these other altcoins to rise. Ethereum, I talked about Sold or some other good ones up there. Dot has been strong as well. Luna as well has been quite strong. I think you go for Ethereum first when you think that bitcoin is going to pause for a while. We basically did test the all time high. Didn't quite break it. I think on one exchange maybe it did break it, but for me it really didn't. You want to see it across all exchanges to really say, you know, hey, new all time high. Ethereum is definitely by the dip. Right. You've got pretty well established horizontal levels. 3650, you know, right here at the, at the lower high for Ethereum. Right. We talked about.

The question is. Yeah, why, why did Ethereum fail to break out the hand? Is that a bad sign or it was expected?

I don't know if expected or not. I wouldn't say it's a bad sign because you're still, you know, we're at what, 4,100? We're still a lot higher than we have been recently. I think if we're back below, you know, 3,950 or below that September 5th high, that's a little more weakness. But we don't have that much weakness yet. You know, think about an ascending triangle. If you think about an ascending triangle, you have a very well defined resistance and you've kind of a rising demand. So it may, you may stop, you know, there and pause a little bit. But when it comes back down you have aggressive buyers, you're more anxious buyers who jump up, jump up the bid and push that rising demand. So you Know, an initial rejection is fine, it's not a bad thing per se. But especially at a key psychological, at a key level right at that all time high. I think some people try to get cute, they try to guess the top and then sometimes you get that selling, you know, right at the top. But also that happened with that volatility on bitcoin, where bitcoin, like on some exchanges it dropped right through everybody's bids. People started to panic. So I think it was bad timing for Ethereum. I think a bitcoin hadn't done that, Ethereum probably would have briefly paused and continued on. But I, I think Ethereum is one you want to continue to target. If it gets lower, you know, who knows what's going to happen over the next few days. Maybe we get a deeper flush. But if you get lucky, maybe you can buy Ethereum at 36.50, you know, something like that. If you get even luckier, if the whole market starts to really shake around, you know, you want to have that low ball bid, that bid that you don't think will fill, but if it does fill, you're in a good position, right? You want to buy the red in an uptrend, you want to buy a dip in an uptrend. So that's kind of what, where I think we're at right now, kind of in the shorter term. We're still digesting the etf, obviously. I think that's a great, a great thing for kind of market confidence that bitcoin is not just going to go away. You know, that's, that would be my take on that.

Do you think the ETF is going to be the thing that pushes bitcoin.

To a hundred thousand, you know, the whole tail wagging the dog? Well, you know, I think bitcoin has natural momentum, pushing it to 100,000 when you have just not enough supply. I think a lot of people who are buying bitcoin are taking it off exchanges and they're holding it. Generally speaking, I think that will push it towards 100k. I think it definitely helps. There's no doubt about it. I don't think it's a bad thing. It gives some people more confidence to buy it, you know, because, because Wall Street's getting involved. You know, they've been involved for a while now with, with other, you know, like GBTC and stuff like that, but it definitely gives them a little bit more confidence and I think it will push it to 100k, but I don't think it needed that necessarily given the Natural momentum and natural trajectory, you know, on longer time frames like the weekly chart, you know, just a nice beautiful uptrend on the weekly chart. And yeah, I would say.

And so do you have any like price targets that, that you're looking at specifically for Bitcoin or Ethereum in kind of the current environment?

I, I really hate targets. People ask me that because I feel like when you, when you focus on a price target, it takes you away from what your job as an technical analyst is to observe the price and look for clues of strengthening and weakening momentum. And that's kind of how I approach this, you know, a price. I don't have a price target on Bitcoin right now per se. I have support targets. I have the rising MA50 on the weekly. I have the daily EMA8. Right, we talked about that 52k level. I have support targets that I want to buy. I've identified levels that I, I would believe to be kind of a discount, you know what I mean? A discount to the current market. But I, you know, you can do a Fibonacci extension and you can, you can figure out what the, the height of a move is going to be, stuff like that. And if you have a well defined pattern, you know, like a head and shoulders, like an inverted head and shoulders, you can use that for a target like this 80 day rectangle. You could have done that, you could have taken the height of the rectangle and you could have extended out from that a target which I think was like 55, 60K. So if you have a well defined pattern, you know, in classical charting, that will give you some type of a measured move, you know, quote unquote type of a target. But when we're in essentially more or less price discovery or we're kind of a, a brand new territory, you know, I'm not going to say 74k or 75k. It's a round number that sounds great, you know, everybody wins. I mean that's fine. So I really don't have targets does it doesn't work with my style, you know what I mean?

And so like if you wouldn't mind just like walking us through some of like the, the, the indicators. I see Bollinger bands. You talk EMA 8. Like why do you use some of these things? And, and how does that benefit you when you're doing your ta?

So everybody has a different method. I think you need to find the one that works for you. It's kind of taken me a while to get to this point. I start out with, you know, for, for simple moving averages, I start out, I use the 50 period, which is the orange line. I'm trying to hide some of these other things to simplify it. So I use the 50 period moving average. Right? It's a simple moving average. Each candle has an equal weighting. That really helped me back here in April. And if we can observe In April, on April 19th, we had our first close below the daily 50 since Bitcoin was around like 7 or $8,000. Right. So that was a clue, right? That was, that was a data point that the, that the trend was weakening. Even though it was strong, it was weakening.

Right.

So I used that 50 moving average to give me a kind of signal. And on the way back up, that allowed me to kind of buy back in here with confidence right back in July when we kind of regained that MA50. You can also use it for, for a cross. People use the death cross and the golden cross. I don't really pay too much attention to that, especially when there's a big difference between where the price is and where the moving averages are crossing. But you can use those for moving average crosses. Of course, you want to keep in mind that you need a market, trending market for a moving average cross to have any kind of power and you want to have the price with a close proximity to the cross. I use the Blue line, the 200 moving average. You know, by definition, by definition an uptrend rising 200 moving average with the price above it confirming that. So I kind of used the 200, you know, on the weekly chart. The 200 has been amazing for a buy the dip kind of long term. You see it back here, the double touch back in 18 and then kind of the black swan drop. You know, you were buying Bitcoin near the 200 moving average in the weekly. I mean, that's just a great kind of opportunity, which, you know, at some point it will come around again. But maybe at that point the 200 ma is, you know, up here, but at that point, right. So you just have to kind of, kind of keep an eye on going forward. So I use that kind of longer term moving average is simple for X. For shorter term, I use exponential moving averages. The 8, which is the green line. I mentioned that exponential is more price weight into the most recent candle. And I use the 34. So kind of when the price is initially accelerating, it will often use this 8 EMA as support and it will bounce between the upper Bollinger and the eight ema. We're Seeing that here right now, we saw that on the weekly chart after we broke above, really 14k that 14 or, you know, 12, 13, 14k breakout. Upper ball, injured EMA 8. Upper ball, injured EMA8. Right. And you got your first close below the weekly EMA 8 April 19th as well. That was another data point. So that's kind of how I use that 8 EMA. You can also use it as a, you know, for a crossing signal. So I talked about good illustration of that would be here in the daily chart. And I'll just remove a couple things to make it a little bit cleaner. So. And I'll get the Bollinger band out of the way. So if you'll notice, the green line never crossed the yellow. It, you know, pulled back, we found support, pulled back, found support, and then boom, we finally had our first, you know, cross here. A little bit of a fake out and then it crossed back below. So you could see that's another sign of weakening, right? Technical analysis is not about predicting the future. It's about observing the trend. You identify it, you ride with the trend, you can profit from it. And you want to identify data points, ideally horizontal levels, maybe moving averages that will tell you if that trend is strengthening and weakening, right? So that's how you can use that moving average, moving averages for that as a cross, as a potential sign. And then back here, we had the cross back up above right. We also gained the daily MMA50 at that point. Two kind of multiple data points. You know, as well as, you know, if you want to draw a diagonal line, you had a diagonal break. If you want to do do your horizontal and you want to be a little more conservative, kind of had your kind of lower high break there as well in that level. So you had a couple things going on. So that's what I use in terms of moving averages. I use the Bollinger bands as well. You can think about. Bollinger bands are excellent in terms of helping you to understand how to use your Japanese candlestick signals. You want to have a reversal candlestick at the lower Bollinger, a bullish reversal candlestick, because you need something to reverse, right? And you want a bearish signal to happen. At the upper Bollinger, we had a little tweezer top here. You know, for example, long upper shadow candles at the upper Bollinger is a sign of kind of overextension. So Bollinger banjo not only tell you when the price is overextended, you know, usually when you dip below it in an uptrend That's a short term opportunity, but it also gives you the correct place to use your Japanese candlestick signals. They kind of work really well together. So that's kind of how I use Bollinger bands.

But generally where you start, would you start with dominance index or bitcoin daily? Where do you start and how do you select which altcoin are you going to invest, for example?

It's a great question. So I actually don't have a dominance chart, actually. I look at the bitcoin chart and then I constantly. I'm scanning altcoins and I kind of have a list that I'm observing. And you want to think about. Now your question was a great one. Like where do you go? What to. You want to think about the concept of relative strength. All right, so when the whole market is correcting, the whole market's correcting. But when it, when it stops and it pauses, you want to be scanning through, you know, on whatever time frame, one hour or four hour, you're seeing which has the most strength. So whatever was strongest before the correction is most likely to continue back up. So for example, Seoul has been really strong. So this is one you want to target, especially if the whole market starts, you know, starts to go up again. Right. Luna has been generally quite strong. And what is relative strength? We'll look at Luna. Luna is above its 200 moving average. It's above its 50 period moving average. That's relative strength. Like what is not? What's not as strong as that? Here's vet. Vet. Just barely getting above the 200 or really, actually, let's see. LTC barely above the 200. You want to look at, you know, relative strength. Like Matic. Matic. Look at that nice bullish chart. You know, bouncing off its 200 moving average. You want to understand which ones are relatively stronger to the other altcoins and you want to focus on those. Make a list of what's the. What the strongest coins are. And when you're ready to deploy your funds, you want to deploy them in the direction of relative strength. You don't want to be trying to guess downtrends, right. You're going to get burnt. Like guessing when a trend is going to reverse. It's hard if you consider an expert, you know, you know, you're better than me and you can do it, right. You want to find, you want to play continuation plays. You want to buy dips and uptrend. And that's kind of where you want to focus your attention on relative strength.

Awesome stuff. Big Chads you are enlightening. Not only me, everyone, I think, in the audience, we greatly appreciate you giving all your insights with the charts. This has been absolutely awesome. We definitely want to have you on again. We appreciate you jumping on today's show, man, having fun.

I'm glad you guys. Hopefully you're all doing well. I didn't ask you, but I hope everybody's doing well out there and every day is a gift. And I'm just enjoying today, you know.

Awesome. Right on. We appreciate you jumping on. Big Chad's looking forward to having you on again at some point in the future.

All right, take care, fellas. All right.

Good deal. Wow, wow, wow. I was just. Charts bonanza. I absolutely love it. I'm a chart head myself. Love looking at them. So I'm learning, learning something new every day. Hopefully you at home, we're doing the same. And while we're on the topic of charts, let's go ahead and move into our Markets Pro segment. We're gonna get you the top coins from the coin watch. Let's do it. You at home. You. Yeah, we're talking about you. You ever heard of Markets Pro? Well, now you have. We're going to run through some of the top coins that were circulating around the Markets Pro platform this week. Got a couple of them. Elrond. Right. But first we got to tell you about the news quakes. Okay. This feature is a service by CT Markets Pro. It helps traders stay on top of important developments. News quakes are automated alerts that instantly notify users when market moving events happen. So for example, this week, Danil, let's go ahead and pull up the chart for Elrond. We had a little newsquake. Look at that. A little parabolic rise in Elrond. Guess what happened. There was a binance staking pool for Elrond. This announcement was caught by markets Pro and you see that immediate surge. That white line there on the chart is price. And you love to see that price action went from. From 240 all the way up to 254. Hopefully you were able to catch that little pump. The next token that we had this week was Ampleforth, another feature for Markets Pro. If you guys aren't familiar with this Vortex Score, useful feature for markets Pro. It's an algorithmic metric called the vortex score. And a coin's vortex score is comparison between its current market conditions and social conditions of those in the past. Let's go ahead and pull up the chart for Ampleforth. As you can see, that green and Yellow line is the Vortex score. Looks like we peaked out right around 80 on October 19th. That first circle there. White line is the price action. You see that price action jump from 119 all the way up to 145 in just 12 hours. By golly, that was a huge rise. Hopefully you were able to jump in on that. That was ample forth. You just, you love to see it. You just love to see that Vortex score. You love to see the price action and that's why you use Markets Pro. Don't be a markets Joe, be a Markets Pro. That's what we always say here on the show. So if you're a Markets Pro user, why don't you drop a comment in the chat? Let's, let's hear from all those Market Pro users out there. We just love to see it. I know we have some exciting stuff to talk about today with Marcel. He's going to get us educated about some bitcoin stuff. So let's go ahead and jump into Marcel's expert segment today.

Okay, guys, so for this week we're gonna go back to the futures premium because after the ETF started, we've seen the, the futures mark, the BTC futures market premium going up. Danilo, can you share my screen please? And some analysts like Dylan here is saying that the three month futures analyze base, which is the futures premium, is going up upwards to 17%. So if it's the highest level in five months and he thinks, or he's implying that traders are becoming optimist, but that's not true, I'm going to show you why. So yes, you can check the yellow line, the orange line is the futures premium and you can see that it went down to 5% and after the last week it spiked to 17%. So same level we were like five months ago. So I'm going to show you what is the futures premium and why that's not so much relevant after the etf. Got it. So first things first, why is there a futures trade? Why does it trade above the Coinbase and bitstamp and Kraken price? Okay, so the futures, especially the CME contract, it expires every month. So there's the November contract, there's the December contract, there's January 2022 contract. So when you buy or sell this contract, you have to wait until the December settlement date to get your money back. So there's an opportunity cost for investing or either buying or shorting or selling those futures. So the traders are usually going to require more money. So they trade Those futures contracts. So this rate usually varies from 5% to 12% per year. So which is neutral rate the opportunity costs. So whenever it's above 12% people tend to say that market is getting bullish because buyers are willing to pay a higher premium to buy the futures contracts when it's below 5%. On the other hand, people generally say that the market is bearish because no one is willing to pay a premium for the futures contracts. And we've seen in the past like four months in a row the futures premium down to 5% which was kind of bearish market. And yes bitcoin went down from 65,000 to the 28,000 but this period is over. And when we got the futures based ETF approved, which was like two days ago if I recall correctly, this whole game changed because we now have a large buyer of futures contracts. So he's putting a lot of pressure on the futures. So yes this premium is going up but it's not a bullish sentiment, market sentiment, it's just ETF buying positions, you understand?

So you're saying like the 17 increase over the futures over the spot is, is more of a result of this release of this new ETF and like one buyer kind of taking a lot of demand on it and not so much a overall survey of the Greater market sentiment.

100% correct. So if you're looking charts pre ETF or post ETF, you're going to have to adjust those numbers. So the current 17% while the ETF is building up position, it just bought over $1 billion of worth of futures contracts in two days which was the record since gold like 20 years ago. So it's the fastest growing ETF in the world. So yeah, they're buying contracts and they're making this premium go up but that's, that does not reflect a general market optim optimism.

So do you think if it was.

That'S a good thing or a bad thing?

Good question or.

So you're struggling here bro.

Because yeah, yeah, I want the institutions and the general market to be able to absorb and buy the bit Bitcoin. But that's not the instrument they should be using. They should be asking for the fiscal ETF holding like the one we have in Canada, the proposed ETF because they're going to have problems if this ETF gets too big. It will. The pro shares won't be able to roll over this contract. So when the November contract expiring they need to sell the November contracts and buy the December contracts. Remember about the premium we said earlier. So each time the premium is going to get higher. If they are too big, the players will demand a lot of money for this rollover. So the premiums will keep going up. You're going to see 17%, 20%, 25%, 30%. So if there's continuous inflow on the ETF, these guys are going to have problem and the ETF is going to underperform the price of the sport market. So yeah, I like it, but I'm not hyped about it.

Do you think that they like this makes it seem like they can't necessarily control the price so much because if the price keeps going up and they can't roll over these into the next month, like they can't. It seems like they can do it a lot better with gold, the bitcoin game. Like they can do all they want with it in the futures. And I think I've tried to talk about this with you before, but at a certain point people are not going to be willing to sell their bitcoin. Even if the future states are only $40,000. The people that hold physical bitcoin are like, I ain't selling it for that price. And we could see like a dislocation in the market. Do you think that's a possibility in the future.

If this happens, you're going to see the futures premium going up upwards to 50% per year because people are not willing to sell their spot bitcoin. So the future is going to be trading at a premium. So yes, it could be kind of a problem, but there's always going to be some market maker, market maker doing this arbitrage game. But he will demand each time more money. So we're gonna see this futures premium going over and over if there's continuous inflow on, on the ETF. But if the premium gets up to 40%, it's a risk for the broader markets because if the market collapse, I don't know, 10, 20% on a day, there could be heavy liquidations and this will be bad for the price. So I don't think it's a huge issue, but it creates problem for pricing or for short term pricing. Yeah.

So Marcel, I'm going to interrupt you here. I want to hear from our audience here. What are your thoughts about the bitcoin premium with the etf? We want to hear from you, make sure you chime in. If you also have other questions for Marcel or Jordan, now is the time to ask them. We're going to pull them up and we're Going to have the experts answer your questions at home. Marcel, what do you got?

I have another important question for the audience. Do you guys think that Satoshi Nakamoto himself, whoever he is, would be proud and happy to see this kind of ETF exploding or going up or not?

That's a great question. Jordan, what do you think, man?

I don't think he would like. If you've ever read the bitcoin white paper, the premise was simple person to person, cash, basically over the Internet. That's it. Nothing about futures. Let's bet on the future price of this cash that we're sending. None of that. None of that. So, yeah, bitcoin.

Bitcoin is Napster for your money. I don't think I'm. I'm gonna go with Jordan here. I don't think Satoshi would have been super thrilled about this. The whole reason why he made bitcoin was exactly to kind of like off ramp everybody from the traditional system. And yeah, I. I don't think. I don't think Satoshi would be very, very happy about that. But that's a good question. That's a great question, Marcel. We're going to be scanning the chat here. Let's see what other some folks are talking about here. Bitcoin RSI strength suggests BTC price is still far from its cycle top. Do you agree with this or do you think our top is in? Marcel, what are your thoughts on that?

I don't think the top is in, but we could definitely see some 54,000amini bear cycle if there's bearish regulatory news or stablecoin regulation or whatever. But yes, I think we're gonna end up March above 80 or $90,000 because institutions are starting to buy the ETF and we're gonna see some commodities, global micro funds buying bitcoin. And before that, before the etf, they simply couldn't buy. So now they have an instrument. So, yeah, I think we're starting at the beginning of a super cycle. But we're gonna see above 80 or $90,000 in February or March.

I'm gonna come from my behavior side and be like, I haven't had a bunch of people coming up to me asking me about cryptos yet, so we're not there. Like, as soon as I got half of my friends on Facebook being like, gordon, should I buy this? Should I buy Shiba? Should I buy a random coin? I'd be like, oh, thanks for giving me a cycle. Get out. Give me. Thanks for the signal.

Yeah, I. I just had family members reach out to me today. So I'm like, are we getting there? Are we, we not close today? Yeah. I'm gonna pull up real quick while we're on this topic. Tech Dev, you just love to see it. We've, we've talked about tech dev before. He thinks that this is possibly right around a mid cycle with the top coming in above 125,000. Very, very interesting to always see what, what tech dev has to say. So I guess we do have another question from Joao. The ones who knows what Bitcoin is, they will not buy the etf. And so I guess this brings up another, the last question here and then we'll kind of close things out with, with closing arguments. Why, if you're a, an average everyday person, why would you want to buy a Bitcoin ETF versus just buying bitcoin, the real asset? Jordan, what are your thoughts?

You're too locked into the old system and gold and how they've always manipulated and you don't know what cryptocurrency is. In my opinion. That's why, that's the only reason that somebody knows what Bitcoin is. Would prefer to buy the Bitcoin etf unless you're just completely a trader or you want to do it to more kind of hedge your bets. You got your stash of Bitcoin on the side and you want to play the market and maybe make moves and pay the taxes on that. Otherwise I don't see why anybody would want to features over an ETF or a spot or the actual physical Bitcoin. What do you think, Marcel?

Well, right now, Jordan, the Bitcoin or whatever is not accepted as a guarantee on a bank or on your mortgage, for example, when it becomes a financial assets like the etf, you can use that as an escrow or as a mortgage payment or whatever because it's recognized by the financial system. But if you hold bitcoins on cold storage, right now, you cannot use that for those financial stuff. But when the defi grows larger, when you can buy a house using Defi, for example, or get a bigger loan using Defi, a company get a bigger loan, secured loan using Defi, then yes, bitcoin cold storage would be much better than etf. But right now for those guys who need the financial market, it is not.

What do you think, Bitten?

What do I think? I think it's, it's foolish. It's foolish to, to buy a Bitcoin etf. I want to own that real asset. Give it to me I want control of it. I want that Swiss bank account in my pocket. And, yeah, that's my thoughts. I don't really.

I'm not.

I'm not a big fan of the etf. I. I do understand the implications it has for institutions get involved with it. Not a fan. Question, last question here. Bill Green would fire round quick answers here. Will the New York AG shutdown and investigation of crypto exchanges spread to the rest of the U.S. jordan, what are your thoughts?

No, you got places like Oklahoma or Texas that are completely opposite of places like New York and California. So anything they do, they're like, no, we'll do the opposite just because you're doing that. So it won't spread. It might go to some places, but it ain't going to become an issue, in my opinion.

Marcel.

I think it's like the police and the bandits and the hackers. The hackers are always one step ahead of the police. So it doesn't matter if they say, well, you can't offer that product in New York or wherever. Just. They're just gonna change their. The island. They're. They're located right now and offer the service using VPN or whatever. Nature finds a way.

Exactly right. Water will find a way to get into every little crevice. That's what crypto is. It's not going anywhere. Doesn't matter. You know, can try to. You can try to ban it. We've seen it happen. It just goes. Where. Where else in the world that people accept it? So, great question from our audience today. We appreciate all of you commenting from around the globe. It seems like people are all over the place. We'd love to see it. We appreciate everyone tuning in. Final thoughts here, Jordan and Marcel. Jordan, do you have closing thoughts for today's show?

Take your profits when it's. When it's the right time. Like, don't get caught out. I promise you, if you do, you will be thinking about it for years. All right? This market's gonna go crazy. I'm. I'm gonna get out on the way up, not the way down. That's just my personal opinion.

Barcelona, your words of wisdom for our audience today. Closing thoughts.

Close your eyes. Stop chart looking at charts and go earn some money to buy satoshis or ethereum or whatever coin you like at the end of the month. So go get that money so you can buy cryptocurrencies. That's my advice.

Yeah, we real quick shout out to Jackson Dumont. He's going to be back next week and we expect every one of you to be here. We love it. We appreciate you guys. Yeah, no one went broke taking those profits. Make sure you are doing that. We appreciate everyone tuning in. If you haven't liked and subscribed YouTube, Coin Telegraph, 12pm on Thursdays and we might be doing some breaking news reports throughout the week. You don't know, be be on the lookout for our Twitter Coin Telegraph. We love you all. Thank you for tuning in. Until next time, over and out. Have a great day.

Sam.