Is Bitcoin Overbought? | Crypto Markets

Today we're gonna pick on the topic of the market being stuck at 4000 in BTC$. I remember last year or at the beginning of the year, people were also sort of bored and were looking at this six and a half, 6,000 level for quite a while. We were actually in that range for three to four months till we broke through to the downside. It's similar these days for like four months. We're now within an ASCE triangle and especially over the past two months, we're just not moving anymore. We're within a few hundred dollars range. But I think it is a sign that something is going to happen. Volatility is very low and market activities as such are, I would even say too low. So we're looking for some action to come on that side. So just stay tuned. Fake volume is a big topic as well. I mean, it has been a topic for quite a while now. And if you're an active trader and sitting in front of the screens, you know that coin market cap volumes are not the volumes which are actually going through on the exchanges. But now Messari IO actually brought it to the next level and they're reporting now. They call it a real 10 volume. So they use 10 exchanges they trust and they're regulated. And they now have a column on their overview, market overview where you can actually see what they think the real traded volume is or was over the past 24 hours. I think it's a good thing. It sort of gives now professional traders the confirmation of what is actually trading. And it helps market makers to determine the spreads they should quote if they need to quote OTC transactions by actually knowing what the volume is which is going through the market over a certain period of time. It also helps that we see the volume is concentrated on proper regulated exchanges, especially in the derivatives market. For example, on BTC we see roughly 100 million going through the CME futures contracts where the total cash market is roughly $250 million worth. So there is a lot of volume going through regulated exchanges, which is in fact a good sign. So there is not that much of manipulation out there what people thought there would be. There are some reports out there. Bloomberg for example, mentioned that BTC$, looks overbought. I'm not a believer in looking at analysis or indicators which are showing overbought or oversold signals. I look at patterns. The chart you see is an ascending triangle of the BTC dollar price action. And that is a bullish pattern. If we break out to the to the top side, it will be a confirmation then so. So for me it doesn't really matter what the indications show on these overbought or oversold signs. Also, people are getting nervous or impatient about can BTC maintain the positive momentum? Well, at the moment it just trades within that pattern and you need to be patient. You need to wait till a pattern resolves either to the positive side, break up to the upside, or if the pattern gets dismissed and we see a break to the downside. But it's not up to me to determine if it can hold the positive momentum. Just watch the charts, watch the price action. It's all there. Obviously volume is a big topic. That one is missing. It's even less volume going through the market in March compared to February. So seeing a resolvement of the pattern to the upside, hopefully we need to see volume to undermine and confirm then the positive momentum. That was it and I hope to see you next time again. Thank you.

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