Is This the End of the Crypto Bull Market?

Bitcoin has stumbled below $60,000 in the worst crash since the collapse of crypto exchange ftx. So the main questions investors are asking now are what is causing this correction? How low will it go? And most importantly, is this the end of the bull market? To find out, we reached out to three crypto market experts and traders. I'm Giovanni, your host. Let's get into it.

It's either before the having or after the having. There's a sell off because it's just kind of the hype is now over and this excitement is now kind of come and gone. And there's this natural tendency for people to kind of say, okay, well, you know, without a major catalyst to, to drive price up, what's the next factor we look at? And there's really nothing right now. I mean, you could say, you know, the adoption by institutions. But what we're seeing recently, and this is another key of why bitcoin is starting to fall, and we can see on the chart here, is that it's really rolled over over the last couple days, is that the stock market, which is a risk asset, is starting to roll over. People are getting nervous about the Fed keeping rates higher for longer. And that's also making crypto holders very nervous about holding their crypto positions. And so this is the negative about having the institutional involvement and the bigger investors involved is that they're going to trade it as a risk asset versus many Bitcoin. Bitcoin hodlers, they look at it and say, hey, listen, I'm going to hold on forever. But a lot of these newer investors are not going to do that. And that creates a little added volatility here.

It's the hangover from the perfect storm in Q1 for higher prices. So remember what we had. We had the US launched ETFs, having and beta US stock market making record highs. And that was a perfect environment for bitcoin to make record highs. Well, it did. So now we're in the hangover stage. The question is how much longer, how much further it goes. Why is crude oil right now $79 a barrel and why did natural gas plunge? Because they went up too much. And that's the same thing that's happening in the stock market. The stock market has gone up way too much. It's kept inflation void and it's taken away those Fed rate cut expectations. The high price cure has just trickled over to the stock market. So I don't think the Fed will cut rates or can cut rates until the US Stock Market goes down and shows some form of deflationary forces right now, or certainly it has been for most of the year, showing inflation.

I was calling for a pullback drop, a correction in bitcoin minimum to 60k, maybe even a bit lower. The reason was that when bitcoin was reaching the heights of 73k or something like 73,75k back in March, I noticed it was extremely overbought. The MACD indicator had reached a level of overbought not seen since 2021, November 2021, right before the major drop occurred.

So the big ones here are going to be this 52 to 53,000 level and then the 49. If the stock market continues to collapse, let's say we get a 20%, 30% drop in the S and P, then I actually think we go even lower. But I will be starting to accumulate in this 50 ish thousand range in my own portfolio. If we go lower, the next big, and I'm talking epic level where I will heavily load up on bitcoin will be around the 30 to 32,000 level. And I'm a huge long term bull, even though I'm a little skeptical in the near term that we might go down a little bit. I think every investor has to be aware that bitcoin has pullbacks, right? I mean it's nothing new to bitcoin to see even a 50% correction.

Well, 60 was the support that it just broke through. That's this first good resistance. You should expect responsive selling. And 50 is the first good support. It broke above, remember in, in Q1 and I, I know they're round numbers, but bitcoin has a tendency to gravitate towards round numbers. Before that was gravitating around 40. So 50 to 60 for now, 60 is good resistance. I think that what I see right now with Bitcoin breaking below 60,000, I think we should expect the S&P 500 to break below 5,500, which means all the dominoes tumble.

I'm seeing this drop exactly what I said it was over a month ago as a correction, as a pullback, a healthy correction. Healthy pullback, ABC correction. So I think this recent drop, Giovanni, is the C wave of the ABC pattern I recently expected. I was calling for bitcoin to drop down to some key targets near 57, 56K. So we're pulling down to that level. So that means as long as Bitcoin stays above 50k key support and as long as it stays above this trend line or moving average in the weekly chart. I'm still looking for one more push higher sometime in the next several months.

There are signals in the charts that are telling us that we might be at a short term bull market high. But again, you know, the beauty of it is, is that bitcoin can move up and down so quickly that, you know, we could go into a bear market for six months or 12 months, but at some point we're going to rip higher. And I'm a big believer that eventually we do rip higher and, and we go, we go to that hundred thousand marker. And one of the things that really bothered me in the crypto markets over the last three months was that we were seeing the scam coins and these new meme coins going nuts, which wasn't, it's, that's not the mark of like a new bull market, that's the mark of an end of a bull market.

If Bitcoin breaks below 50k support in a sustained fashion, that could mean that bitcoin is topped in the rally we saw in the last few months. I should say that to me that's a low probability. My higher probability is that this is still a, this drop is a correction, an ABC correction. Once it completes, hopefully above 50k, then I think we could rally to new all time highs sometime in the next few months.

I think just another 10% lower in the S&P 500. It's a normal correction in a bull market, which means you'd expect bitcoin to drop 20 to 30% on a normal volatility adjusted basis. To me that's the key thing now is watch beta. If beta goes up, bitcoin will do what it normally does and be the fastest horse in the race and outperform bet beta goes down, which I expect bitcoin's going to suffer. But the rest of the cryptos, massive silly speculation. They have got a big problem with beta going down. They're going to go down a lot harder.