The BULL RUN has Begun: Mark Yusko's BTC Price Prediction

Fair value for bitcoin is around 55k, so I think we drift upwards toward that, that level. But then the punters are going to come and we're already up 100%. So that leaves a 5X from here.

When I talked to Mark Jusko back in February, he told me that the end of the crypto bear market was just around the corner. I was skeptical, but he was actually right. A new crypto rally has finally kicked off with BlackRock final filing an application for a spot Bitcoin ETF. Jusko thinks this is just the beginning of a parabolic move that will bring bitcoin to new all time highs in anticipation of the halving set to take place in April 2024. In this interview, I talked with Mark about his crypto price outlook for the next months and the main catalysts we should look for. I'm Giovanni. On this show we challenge the ideas that shape the world of crypto. In each episode we assess a crypto narrative, a macroeconomic outlook or a potential disruptive technology. Only the most solid ideas will make it to the other side. So Mark, last time we talked, I think back in February you were saying that this year we were going to see the start of the crypto summer. So this renewed bitcoin crypto bull market, what do you think? Has the crypto summer started and do you think that the application by blackroc for a bitcoin for a spot bitcoin ETF trigger that the start of the crypto summer?

Well, we ended crypto spring in June, I think, I think it was kind of, you know, last June 15th where we had the bottom, then we had another interim bottom after the FTX debacle. And then, you know, this year, June 15th, I think to me was the trigger. Now people look at it and say, oh, but we had this big rally from December of last year into into June. So isn't that, isn't that the rally that to me that's just the beginning kind of that, that got us back to even over the previous year. And now I, you know, I look at, at where we're headed in a, in a crypto summer now. What does crypto summer mean? Well, it's, it's where the attention of the markets kind of shifts toward this having event. In this period between now and the having, I think we drift upward towards fair value. What's fair value? I will argue based on a Metcalfe law model, fair value for bitcoin is around 55k. So I think we drift upwards toward that that level. But then the punters are going to come, right? If we go from 30 to 55, everybody's gonna say, oh, we're going to the moon again. People are going to throw out the multi hundred thousand dollar targets and we probably will have a speculative blow off top sometime in 2024 that leads to the next downturn in the next crypto winner. So it's a long answer.

Okay, that's interesting. So you expect the next downturn to be already next year?

Well, 2025, so the downturn, Tom. So the way I think about it, and it's just my way of thinking about it, the four year cycle tends to run June to June ish. So you know, we saw crypto spring June 22 to June 23, June 23 to kind of April, May 24 will be crypto summer. Then we'll get the blow off top kind of from May of next year to kind of May, April, May of the following year. And then, then we start the next downturn sometime leverage will come back. My, my, my one thought though on that Giovanni, is that the leverage in this cycle probably won't be as bad as the previous two, meaning there won't be as much leverage available and therefore the highs probably won't be as high. You know, if you think about the two cycles ago we went up 40 fold, big move. Then last cycle we went up 20 fold. This cycle I think probably more like tenfold and we're already up 100%. So that leaves a 5X from here. So could I see a price in the 150 range? Yeah, yeah, I can see.

Okay, yeah, that's pretty realistic perspective on the future outlook on the bitcoin price. I just want to talk about the latest big news of crypto, which is the application by BlackRock to for a Bitcoin for a spot Bitcoin ETF, which apparently triggered the beginning of this crypto summer.

I've said for a long time, actually for over a year, that no one else was going to get approved for the etf, but the Winklevoss twins and ARCA and, and, and dcg, all these guys were making the application like they're going to get stamp rejected. I said the only person I thought that had a shot was, was blackrock people. Why? Like, well, because they're part of the group. I mean they're part of the incumbents. And so shockingly they released their application. Now it coincidentally with the beginning of what I deem crypto summer, BlackRock shows up and says, hey, we want to do an etf, I think it will be approved. I don't know when. Right. But, but my guess is, you know, sometime in Q3 or early Q4. I think that is going to change some of the dynamics of this crypto bull market. And the reason is just supply and demand. Right? There's, there's a whole bunch of people who aren't going to sell at any price and demand is going to rise if a bit if a spot ETF is approved. And it's to me the antithesis of what happened in November of 21 when they approved the futures ETF. And from that point prices just went down. Well why is that? If there was a futures ETF approved, why didn't that increase the price for a bitcoin? Well, because futures ETFs do the opposite. They actually allow banks and other large speculators to short the price of the asset because you can create a paper asset out of thin air. And you've seen it in the gold markets, you've seen it in the oil markets, you've seen it in the, in the commodities markets. Now we've got the onset of what could be not just tens of billions but potentially hundreds of billions of demand from people who trust BlackRock. Right. There are a lot of institutions, they just trust Larry and BlackRock and they will buy this asset.

And so I just want to follow up on that because I was talking not long ago with an ETF analyst at Bloomberg, his name is Eric Balchunas. He said that?

Yes. Love air.

Yeah, he said that. Basically according to his estimates this, this spot ETF has around 51. He puts the odds at 51% getting approved, 49 not getting approved. So he, he's like tilting more towards a positive outcome. What is your estimate of the odds?

Look, I, I mean I love Eric. I think he's a great guy. I think he's being way conservative. BlackRock has applied for 576 ETFs. They've gotten 575 approved. They've only lost once. I would say the odds are way higher than 5,149. Look, I think it's a done deal. I think it's been a done deal for years. They've just been waiting for the right time. I, I actually think it's going to be. But you know, I never say 100% because you know, things can happen. But I'd say 51 is very conservative. But that's not a bad position to take.

As you said, BlackRock is one of the Incumbents, There is this narrative that say that basically the incumbents are trying to take over crypto, take over Bitcoin through this regulated exchange traded fund, and that simultaneously they are cracking down through the FCC on Binance, Coinbase. So it's all some sort of a scheme made by the incumbents to take over crypto. The question is, should we welcome the filing of BlackRock for a spot Bitcoin ETF or should we be afraid of it?

What blockchain technology does is basically disrupts financial services the way the Internet disrupted media and commerce. Now we have a third ledger, an immutable trustless truth ledger that says 100, 100, 100. Everybody agrees it was a hundred. There's no fraud, there's no malfeasance and you don't have to trust me anymore. In fact, we don't even have to know each other. We can just transact peer to peer, globally instantaneously. No more gold in a vault, no more money being printed. It's a pretty glorious future. But the incumbents are like, whoa, whoa, whoa, wait a second, I don't like that. I like my $7 trillion a year, my 6 to 8% of global GDP, that's good for me. So it's not surprising at all that the regulators would rig the system such that they don't approve of the disruptors coming into the party to take some of that 7 trillion. Well now BlackRock, which is part of the group, says, hey, we want to take the 1% fees every year, not, you know, DCG and the other disruptors. And now I think what happens is the same. Okay, and so should we welcome them? Not really. Right. But should we be happy that we get a better functioning system and ultimately we strip some of the costs out and so we win a little bit? Sure. And will people look the hardcore maxis, they'll hold their bitcoin in self storage, self custody, put on a ledger, which we love because we own a piece of ledger and everything's out. But for the average person who has never, like my dad, never going to hold his own keys, just not going to do it. He's perfectly happy at Coinbase. He'd be perfectly happy to buy an etf. We need these cefi, these centralized finance structures as a bridge to the beautiful decentralized future. So that's a long winded way of saying we shouldn't like celebrate them, but we should welcome them and we should be happy that more participants will now enter the digital age.

Thanks a lot, Mark, for this great conversation. As usual. It's a pleasure to have you on our show, and I look forward to talk to you again in a few months and see how your predictions will have played out.

That sounds great. Enjoy the rest of your summer, and we'll see you in the fall.