When will the crypto bear market end?

SAM FOREIGN.

Hello, friends and thanks for hanging out with us here on another episode of the Market Report here on Cointelegraph. I'm your host Benton, and we are joined again. We have Marcel Peckman back in the saddle this week and we have Sam Borgi here. Sam Borgi is a business editor at Cointelegraph where he brings a decade of experience in economic analysis and financial market writing. Marcel applies his 17 years of experience trading derivatives options futures to the crypto derivatives markets. Fellas, we're back. Marcel, welcome back. Glad to have you back on the show. What's going on this week, guys?

Well, the good thing about a bear market is that nothing happens for a while and it's the perfect entry point for who was waiting. Well, I didn't buy at 60,000, I didn't buy at $40,000, didn't buy at $20,000. So okay, you have another three months, you have maybe six months. But now is the time to tell your friends and explain the benefits about crypto because when, when they're following at $70,000, you should be telling them not to enter the market. Exactly the opposite. So I think it's a good time to build community.

Very good. Sam, how are we doing this week, man?

Good. Come on, Marcel. You know no one's going to be buying at 18, 19,000. They're going to wait until it rips to 48, 49 before they start to get interested. You know, that's, that's just the way these things work, right?

We're, it's your job, man. It's your job.

My job. Yeah. Yeah. Well, I'm here to explain the merits of bitcoin and at the end of the day, only you, the viewer can actually action that insight. Of course not investment advice, but these are some pretty epic levels to be cost averaging into bitcoin. And we've had them for a while, we're probably going to have them for a while longer. And, and as we've mentioned before, I don't really care about exact entry points. I'm just looking to accumulate as much as I can given the current market environment.

Very good. I know we're gonna have a lot of different conversations around the, the old family table during the holidays this year, considering what was last year. So for those trying to convert the family members, you know, 2022, holiday season is going to be different this year, but we got an action packed show. Let's get a roll call from the chat. I see Catherine there. Barix and Ahmad, thank you for joining the show. Today, make sure you tell us where you're tuning in from. If you have questions for Marcel or Sam, go ahead and chime in in the chat today. We're going to be answering those questions periodically throughout the show and want to give a big shout out for all those joining. We'll be giving away a $50 gift card to the CT store for all your desires, for all the CT swag you could want. Go ahead and drop your Twitter handle in there and while you're at it, like and subscribe the Cointelegraph channel here on YouTube where we bring you the market report every Tuesday at 12:00pm so we're going to be getting into what you should be on the lookout for. Bitcoin this week. We have some interesting article again, Terra's back in the headlines. They're making some changes. We're going to be diving into that. What does it mean? Is it a nothing burger? Does this change anything about your perspective on Terra? And then we're going to be talking about midterms, how this could potentially impact the crypto markets and macro markets at large. So make sure you stay tuned for the full show to get our full analysis on some of these hot topics this week. But let's go ahead and jump into our weekly roundup video to kick things off today. It. Sa. Sam, Even though we're in this bear market, I always see those headlines each week seems like there's adoption kind of matriculating throughout the globe. You saw South Korea there adopting blockchain for ID cards. So it's always good to see. I think there's some glimmer of light even though markets right now are in turmoil. Which brings us to what's happening with bitcoin this week. Bitcoin is edging closer to 20k and but before we get into this, I think we got to cover memes first, though, because we got to have some laughs before we get into the business. So let's go ahead and jump into the memes. Dillo and Adrian, let's run it back. What do we got on the docket this week? Bitcoin sleeping on the 19k support that is hanging by a thread. Seems about right though. Ethereum holders after the merge, Bitcoin holders approaching the having Doge holders thinking Twitter is going to charge. I love it. Shout out to all the Doge holders out there. Me just bought some coin thinking it's at all time low. Coin price starts to drop even more. Yeah, that's. I think we've all been in that same boat. Yep. NFT Owner Ventures into real world. That'll be $110, sir. I believe this should cover trying to pay with NFTs. That's a new foreign Great memes. Thank you, Adrian Danilo for, for selecting those out this week as those some of those memes alluded to. Bitcoin's been hanging by a thread here on this 19k mark. Yet there was a big rally last week in the S P. I think it went up close to like 4% in one day after the CPI news last week, which was kind of surprising. We're going to dive into that here. And so the first article that we have, headline reads Bitcoin Price edges closer to 20k as way worse US data boost stocks. This was kind of a very interesting headline to me because it seems very counterintuitive. Why was this the news of US Data being way worse? Why did this give a boost to stocks in general? And what's your take on what you saw here, Marcel?

Well, Benton, people tend to forget, but after the 2008 housing crisis, we had the same market irrationality, meaning the market got addicted to stimulus after the Lehman collapse and the 700 billion stimulus package. And what that meant was that worse economic data meant the Federal Reserve and the central banks could continue injecting money in the system. So people were hoping for negative or bearish economic data. And that held true from August 2009 until August 2014. At that time, the Federal Reserve balance sheet increased from $2 trillion to $4.4 trillion in five years. So people were just hoping, oh, let's pray that the economic data is bad so the Federal Reserve puts more money and the stock market goes up. So that's what was happening back then, and it's the same thing happening right now.

Sam, what are you seeing from your perspective? It talked about the, the New York Industrial Index, which I thought was interesting. That's like not an Empire State Manufacturing Index. Like why was this data so relevant for, for Bitcoin here?

Yeah, well, typically the Empire State Manufacturing Index isn't a huge market mover if you take a look at the traditional markets, the Forex markets, which are highly dependent on economic data, at least in the short term. The Empire State Manufacturing Index isn't that big of a deal. It's a bigger deal when you take a look at the PMI numbers, for example, the ISM PMI figures. But I think for me, the reason why this allowed Bitcoin to catch a bid or risk assets to catch a bid is because the Empire State Manufacturing index showed a decline below zero, which indicates contraction in local business conditions in New York. I think a lot of investors are taking that to mean that the economy is finally slowing due to the Fed rate hikes, which is going to take a, a big chunk out of inflation. That's kind of where what I'm gearing, gearing it toward. Investors actually want to see some softening of economic numbers to at least prove that the Fed's rate hike program is having a desired effect. So that's why we're watching the employment numbers so closely, to see the employment rate or the rate of employment growth decline so that we can see, you know, what the Fed's actions are working. Therefore, it might actually reduce the pace of its rate hikes moving forward because inflation is starting to get under control. I think all of it ties back into inflation and inflation expectations right now.

And while we're on the topic of inflation, friend of the show Mike McGlone had a little quote in this article saying risk asset deflation in 2022 and Fed tightening despite the world leaning toward recession, pretend an elusive end game. We didn't actually see the effects of the money printing until many, many months later from 2020, from the pandemic. And now we're kind of starting to see the same as there's the quantitative tightening happen. This could kind of like matriculate and take months to actually see things come down and impact the overall macro markets. The other thing I wanted to highlight here in this particular article was the volatility here between low volatility bear market environments preceding large price moves. So these blue areas here are kind of highlighting what happens during these lower volatility times when we're kind of seeing these very small price ranges. And it stays there for a while. So it looks back to January or July 2015 and then here in January 2019, and it looks like the, the spring of 2019. Marcel, what are you kind of seeing here? And, and we see these low volatility period. Is it, it's alluding to that things then kind of explode either upwards or downwards after that. What's your take on, on after a low volatility period happens here for Bitcoin?

Okay, Benton, So first for viewers that do not understand how volatility works, volatility is a historical measure. So if the asset price, whether it's a stock or is a crypto, has been moving up and down or randomly 5%, down 7%, up 8%, down 3%, that's a volatile stock. So when we're talking about conservative equities like high dividend payers. On good days they will go up 2%, on bad days they go down 1% because they have some preservability. You know how more or less what the profits of this company is going to be because for example, it's an oil explorer or is a utilities company, so it has long term contracts. So low volatility means that the price has been moving in a steady MANNER. So up 2%, up 1%. Up 2%, up 1%. It's not having those shocks. So if you say that low volatility, it's happens before a high volatility period is the same thing as saying, well, my team scored low on the past four games, so this next game we're gonna score 10 goals. It doesn't work that way. So the future does not depend on the past, how your team played over the past five or five games. It's not going to affect the impact of the next game. So I don't think historical volatility has anything to do with the future. So that's my opinion.

Sam, do you agree with that?

Well, we always say that past performance doesn't predict future performance. Right. I think we hearken on that over and over and over again. And for some reason crypto investors and bitcoin investors seem to forget that. And then they overlay all these fancy charts showing past price action and why that same one is expected moving forward. I think Marcel's analysis is spot on there. You can't really extrapolate past volatility and expect that to have any kind of measurable impact or measurable expectation based on what happened in the past.

Excellent. Well, while we're kind of on this, this topic of macro events happening, there is a midterm election happening here in the States and the article written by Yashu Gola, friend of the show, does an excellent job of actually breaking this down and showing some of the historical data behind bitcoin and these accumulation periods that happen. And then what happens after this election? So as we kind of see here, I'll pull up the graphic from, from the actual article here. He really highlights this support area. So it looked like in 2018 this was around 6400 and then after this midterm election, things tend to dump. So are things in any of your opinions, do things tend to look better before a midterm election? And then we kind of see once a new Congress takes over, things tend to dump. What's your take here, Marcel? How do you kind of view these events in the bitcoin world?

Well, first, Benton, for those who weren't around in 2018, what caused that crash between bitcoin and bitcoin cash? It happened on the same exact day of the four, so it had nothing to do with elections. But talking about 2022, stock market and crypto markets are having a strong correlation, meaning they're both moving in tandem. And midterms definitely affect the stock market. So if the stock market crashes further going to the end of the year, I do believe that bitcoin and cryptocurrency will have a strong price crash because no one, I mean, no one is really expecting Bitcoin and Ethereum to go Ethereum to go below $1,000 again or Bitcoin going below $17,000. Yeah, people are bearish. But when I say people are bearish, they're expecting a lateral market, maybe 17,000, $22,000, 25,000, but not going to $15,000. And no one is really expecting Ethereum to go to $500. So if the stock market crashes because of midterm and crypto collapses, we're going to see blood on the streets.

And Sam, I want to quickly highlight an excerpt from this article. It says historically, in the 17 of the 19 midterms since 1946, the stock market has performed better in the six months after an election than in the six months following it. Is there any weight to this previous historical data? I know you said it's not indicative of future performance, but that's, I think it's a pretty impactful stat there.

Yeah, it makes sense that once we get some midterm clarity that markets are able to rally on a sense of stability or a sense of understanding who the next Congress is going to be. Now, I think that we're in a very, very difficult macroeconomic climate, and I think that a lot of people now are beginning to see that perhaps the economy under the Biden administration isn't doing too well. I think if you see a clean sweep in Congress for the Republicans, that might feed into expectations that, you know, things could eventually turn around because I don't know very many analysts that are positive about the economic performance of the past couple of years. Even though we should have had a nice rebound after the COVID lockdowns, you know, simply reopening the economy should have been enough to sustain a nice rally for the economy, a nice rebound without actually having to inflate the currency even more through massive stimulus programs. So, you know, I think that if it's perception and people think that Republicans are going to be better for the economy, better for business, maybe better on the energy front, for example, that could actually lead to positive expectations moving forward and that could lead stock stocks to rise. I mean, we saw that under, under, under Trump. Right? I mean, when Trump was elected, the perception was that he was going to be really good for business in the economy. And you saw a lot of the indicators rise because of that. Whether that it actually happens in reality is a separate question. But perception could lead to market performance. And I know that Marcel wants to chime in here.

Go ahead, Marcel.

I think that as Benton is saying this, this effect has been happening over the past 70 years. So it doesn't matter if Republicans or the, the which side is winning the elections. I think what investors do not want is uncertainty. So ahead of election there's a lot of uncertainty and after the election the uncertainty is gone. So that's why I think that the trend becomes clearer and better after the elections because there's less uncertainty in the market when you're Talking about a 70 year period, as Benton cited.

And so my next question for you here, Marcel, is are we more at risk of stagflation right now or just inflation from kind of like what you're seeing? And then if you wouldn't mind just breaking down, what is stagflation for those watching who may not know?

Okay, Ben, so stagflation is the worst thing that a government can face. It means that we're simultaneously having high inflation and GDP going down or negative gdp. So that's the worst thing that can happen because the prices are going up and consumers aren't buying, the economy isn't growing because inflation per se alone, it's not a bad thing if the company is growing. If the, the country is going 5% per year and the inflation is 5 or 10 or 2, it doesn't really matter if the, because we're, we have growth to support it. But the stagflation is the worst thing we can see. And as for the current inflation, the global inflation going above 10%, I don't think we have any similar experience over the past 40 years. We'll have to go back to the deutsche Mark like 90 years ago because Germany was back then the biggest economy in the globe and suddenly because of wars, it started facing a huge inflation and monetary devalue. So I do think that the global growth will suffer. I mean, there's a high chance of stagflation, but that does not necessarily translate to a housing crash or stock market crash. And I Have an example for you. In Nigeria, I think it was 10 years ago, they have hyperinflation of 700% and the stock market went up 500%. So people will buy stocks or buy houses to protect from inflation. So it doesn't necessarily mean that the nominal price of the house and the stock will go down.

And Sam, like what are you kind of seeing from where you sit? Are we already in a state of stagflation? And if not, what would tell you that that's kind of on the horizon?

Well, it seems like we're entering that phase right now, which is why I mentioned earlier if we see a shift in political environment in Congress that could lead to expectations that, you know, we can actually be getting out of this. And it might not be, might not actually come out in reality, but I think perception is really strong when it comes to investment now in terms of stagflation. I mean, you know, we have the high inflation, right? That's, everybody knows about that. The previous CPI print was lower than the previous month. But the core inflation rate continues to nudge upward, which is a very concerning thing. We're also seeing a slowing economic growth. We are in a technical recession. I don't care what government agency or their media lackeys like to pretend, right? We saw back to back quarters of contraction. The final key to that whole variable is going to be the joblessness or the employment picture. Right now we're seeing employment continue to grow, so we haven't really seen a major decline on the employment side. I know investors want to see employment growth slow, so that could tie into in inflation expectations and then monetary policy expectations. I wouldn't necessarily call it full blown stagflation yet, but we are heading in that direction. It's all going to depend on how quickly we can bring down the CPI or bring down inflation as the entire economy slows. The challenge is the Fed is hiking rates in a declining economy. That's even Conventional Keynesian Economics 101 says you're not supposed to do, you know, you're supposed to raise interest rates when the economy is, is, is performing well because it can sustain higher interest rates when the economy is slowing. You don't normally hike interest rates this aggressively, but they're in a conundrum right now and it's a can't win situation given where this CPI print is currently.

It's like how long do you think it'll take to actually impact the core CPI of some of these new things that are rolling out with hiking interest rates and things like that. Is there a particular timeline that you're looking at?

Honestly Ben, it's difficult to say. My opinion is that we're in for an inflationary decade. I do think the CPI or that inflation in general is going to be higher than the 2% target for much of the decade. Now we could see periods of deflation but I think that overall we're heading for an inflationary decade. I'm not going to predict CPI on a month to month or annual basis, but only the Fed can do right now is impact the demand side and they probably are having an impact. Whether that leads to a sustained decline in core CPI is yet to be seen. We're still at over 8% on the CPI headline and the core is above 6. Remember the Fed targets at around 2% so I think that, you know, the picture doesn't look, it doesn't look very good. And remember when people want to talk about deflation in the future, a lot of these numbers are measuring inflation against year ago levels. So the sustained increase in inflation that we've, we've seen, that's not going to go away. It's still going to be that, that that price increases factored in future price increases might be lower or future price increases on a year over year over year basis might decline. But all this cpi, all this inflation that we've had for the past couple of years, in my opinion it's here to stay. It's been priced in. It's not going to go anywhere anytime soon.

All right. Very stark view. Marcel, you got something to add? Think you're muted.

In Brazil when people say they are employed it means full time. We don't really have part time jobs. So what I'm hearing is that in the USA the employment is low because people are getting two or three jobs. So there's even more people working than the number of workers itself. So is that really impacting the number? Is the unemployment being masquerade by low salaries in the us?

Sorry guys, I dropped off. I was a mic drop and then.

I. Marcel was just asking about the employment numbers.

People are taking two or three jobs so that is masquerading unemployment. So I want to hear how is that the situation is going in US and Canada?

Yeah, I think that's the case. I think you know, you have, I mean the employment numbers are a tricky, the way they're put together. It's not as, it's not exactly as clean as it looks. You have workforce participation remains near multi decade lows. We haven't seen any really an increase in workforce participation. Those who exited the labor market, you know, a long time ago remain out of the labor market. And you are seeing people taking multiple part time jobs. And that is also hiding the impact of the fact that the employment picture might not be as strong as it, as it seems. And the unemployment rate is very low based on historical standards. But again, the unemployment rate doesn't factor in workforce participation because, you know, the unemployment rate is a percentage of people who are not employed but are actively searching for work. When you get, when you get the survey, you say you're actively searching for work. It doesn't account for the massive number of people who are out of the, out of the, the, the employment pick. They're out of the workforce and they're not looking for work. So that's why the numbers are not as, as it seems. And you have to kind of add caveats to how you explain, you know, the overall employment picture. Right now everyone's looking at the headline non farm payrolls number, which shows that, hey, things are going really well and the Fed hasn't been able to curtail that yet. And that's leading to a lot of the trepidation around the market is because we've had massive rate hikes the past four or five months. Well, massive based on historical standards, but the employment picture is still improving. But as Marcel kind of alluded to when you peel back the onion, employment might not be as strong as it seemed at the surface.

All right, and I want to move us into our last article here, but before we jump into the terror article, quick shout out to all of our viewers. We're streaming live today on LinkedIn, folks, so everyone tuning in on LinkedIn, drop us a message if you have questions for Marcel or Sam. Say hello, love. Broadcasting to a new audience over there. So shout out to all the LinkedIn viewers. All right, now let's get into the business about Tara. They're making headlines again. New proposals coming down the pipeline. Let's go ahead and jump in. So the headline here is Terra developers proposed revised 95 million Luna ecosystem funding program. Well, what happened? Proposed a revised expansion program for allocating 95 million Luna almost worth 248 million as told by Terra. The new proposal is designed to incentivize development in the Terra ecosystem and fix issues in the original proposal. So however, the issue is the Terra staff explained that there are only a handful of projects with total value locked on the protocol, and such lack of competition would not result in the proper distribution of mining revenue. All right, does Anything change the game here for to to Tera in your opinion, is this going to attract more developers projects to build into what is a tarnished ecosystem in many ways? Sam, I'll start with you here. I want to hear your take as to some of these new proposals coming out from the Terraform Labs.

I don't really see any positive coming out of this. I mean, I think that you take a look at what's happening with Do Kwon. You take a look at how the catastrophic decline of an algo stable coin. I think that the damage has been done now. There still is monetary value supposedly in the network. You know, when you have so many tokens, it's possible that during any kind of market upswing, the market cap can rise and make kind of Luna a more relevant project. But to be honest, I don't think that these proposals are going to solve anything about the perception issue because what happened with Tara is a massive, massive blow to the perception of crypto in general. And I think that a lot of investors aren't going to want to go near that. You know, that that project, especially as you mentioned, activity, isn't really happening right now on that network. So it's starting to kind of fade into the background. Only thing keeping it in the foreground are the news clippings about Do Kwon being being on the run. He says he's not on the run. I don't think he's on the run per se, but you know, that's the only real relevant news item is. Is everything around Go Kwan and what's going on?

Yeah, let's be real here, Marcel.

I.

Do you kind of fall in the same boat as Sam? Is this. Are these proposals kind of going to do anything for the community or ecosystem in your opinion?

I don't think it's going to help. They have particularly held much dependence reliance on the stablecoin, the pseudo algorithmic stablecoin and that boat has launched. So without the algorithmic stablecoin I don't think the network sustains itself because let's face it, it doesn't have any technology different from the other competitors which have been working for five years. Plus we have MakerDao Dai the stablecoin working for over five years. It survived two market crashes. So I don't think the proposal will change anything of that.

Now I want to know if there's any comparisons that we might be able to draw from previous projects that went through something similar. Maybe not as massive, but I recall the eos's and the neos of the world and even Tezos potentially kind of going through something similar. Is, is there any parallel that you might be able to draw from previous projects that have failed and then came back and rise from the ashes? Marcel, is, is there any comparison that you might be able to draw?

Yeah, Ben, the top of my mind I remember Sushi, the decentralized exchange that launched its own token. And after the token launch the sushi chef, the founder of sushi, got caught, withdrawn $16 million from himself and the community went Hayward. So what happens that the sushi guy, the chef, he back backtracked and he said okay, I'm gonna give back the funds to the, to the treasury, but I'm out of the project. And he gave sushi to FTX to Sam Bankman Fred and the community embraced the newly leadership and the TVL grew after a new token issue to dilute the previous sushi holders and the co founders and etc. So new tokens were issued and still the price went up. So I think there's precedent saying yeah it can happen, but I don't think that's the case.

And Sam, do you think that terror can rise from the ashes here and are there any other projects that you might say hey, this was a perfect example of how it could potentially come back?

Marcel raised a really good example. I just think with Terra, so many people got burned. I mean there was, the scale of the burn was just so personal and so widespread. I don't know if I know of any similar, you know, examples. You mentioned Eos. I mean that was an entirely different ball of shenanigans. You had a year long ico, you had a project that was basically what, dead, A dead chain of some sort. What has Eos done after raising $4 billion? You know, Tezos, I know it was all about Tezos till you Bezos, you haven't really heard much from that community anytime in the recent past. I don't think any of them have had the same level of death spiral that the Terra ecosystem had. And I think that the sting is, is, is, is too big. So I don't see any parallels right now. And again anything can happen in crypto, but in the foreseeable future I think that it's going to be a hard, have a hard time attracting new capital, new interest, new users, etc.

I, I think I would, I'm, I'm going to agree with both of you because I think there's a case where if SBF decides to come in and, and say hey, I'm just going to Buy Terra out and it's going to fold under Solana or some sort of integration. That would be the only way I think Terra survives long run. However, you know, I just, I think to Sam's point, they've just burned so many people that that's going to leave a bitter taste in folks mouths for many, many years ahead. So it's going to be a tough sledding to even get that, you know, going back to even anywhere close to where they used to be. But that's going to do it for, for our articles this week. I see folks are chiming in the chat here. Bitcoin Pro says when will the bear market end? And how long's a piece of string? I don't know guys. We got, when's the bear market gonna end, guys? I guess we'll leave that, we'll leave that as a relevant question a little bit later. We got crypto tips next. So let's go ahead and jump into what we're going to talk about this week. We're going to give you the quick hitting, quick crypto tips to make sure you are sharp at all times when you're in crypto. So let's go ahead and jump into that. All right. You probably heard us talk about the relative strength Index, the rsi. The RSI is an oscillatory indicator that shows whether an asset is overbought or oversold. It measures the range 0 to 100 and once the RSI value of a crypto asset is below 30, it is technically oversold. And. And when the RSI value is above 70 indicates an overbought asset price. Overbought state is a potential sell signal, while an oversold state indicates a potential buy opportunity. This can be found on your Trading view views. You can look at the RSI and see that wave and oscillatory indicator go up and down as the market continues to move. And that's our crypto tip for this week. Got all the tips for you. All right. I know Marcel's got some really good insights this week. He's going to be talking to you about some trading tips and talking about how to navigate certain things. So I'm going to let Marcel jump in here with some of his tips and insights for this week.

Okay, so first to answer the viewer's question, when does the, the bear market will finish? Probably when you capitulate. When you say, I no longer want to trade cryptos, I give up, I'm doing another thing of my life. Then on that, the very next day, the market's going to rally, but going to a more serious topic right now. So when you invest in cryptos, regardless of betting on Bitcoin, censorship, resistance, Ethereum, decentralized processing capacity, or even the memes and the dodge coins and NFTs, you're essentially saying that the traditional market is going to lose ground versus digital assets. The problem is most crypto investors are under 45 years old, as me, and we've grown accustomed to seeing big tech names such as Google, Amazon, Tesla, Apple, and we're familiar with those companies. We know that they can bring a lot of growth and revenues. But we largely underestimate the sheer firepower of the traditional finance. Meaning Berkshire, Haraway, from Warren Buffett, Visa, MasterCard, JP Morgan, Wells Fargo, the Chinese banks. To put things in perspective, the top eight financial institutions combined earnings of 2021 was $360 billion. So that's almost entire bitcoin market capitalization in net profits, not revenues, in a single year. So whether our crypto nerds like it or not, our products and services compete with the traditional finance because sending value across the globe is part of the banking system. Even simple crowdfunding efforts, such as launching a decentralized application or an NFT collection, you're bypassing PayPal, credit cards, and the traditional finance industry. Sure, we can bet that those secular companies will join our table and compete using open source networks and protocols, but that seems ingenious. Luckily for some of us, our blockchains are sufficiently decentralized, so they're gonna survive the banking regulatory lobby, the price suppression efforts. So I want to share a screen here, please, Danilo. So on that screen you have the iShares Financial ETF in blue at $71.5 versus crypto total capitalization in orange at $890 billion. So for now, the correlation is positive, meaning both assets are moving in the same direction. But that won't last for long, because currently our enemy is the same as the traditional finance. It's the global crisis, it's wars, it's commodity shortages, it's the inflation. So we're fighting on the same side. Thank you, Danilo. But as soon as this honeymoon phase is over, it will become clear that crypto is competing against the banking system. How long they'll be able to hold their clause and make sure that crypto stays outside of the center stage depends on you. Because crypto adoption comes from every one of us, every single one of us sharing the advantages of this system and continue pushing forward this crazy experiment. Maybe it's going to work. Maybe Not. But if our community is not here to test it, to try to incentivize, to call our friends and explain the benefits, it's worth zero. So it really depends on you and us.

Very good, Marcel. Excellent insights. And it's true. We got to have adoption across the entire board. And it all starts with you watching at home. We had a quick question though from LinkedIn audience here. I'm getting a ping from Adrian says from Liam McGareth. How will the current bear market impact the potential XRP rally post presumed court victory against the sec? Could this flip the market to bull? Or what likely be a temporary weekly pump? So we've seen a lot of stuff in the news recently. XRP's PR team is doing overtime right now. But what's your take? With the presumed court ruling being in their favor, will this potentially have an impact on the greater markets or just that particular asset?

Marcel, I think XRP for the next 12 months, it's completely decoupled from the cryptocurrencies because there's a binary outcome. Either it's going to win against the sec, the regulator, or it's going to lose. And if it loses, it's not just the fine, the $1.2 billion fine that they're going to have to pay. Probably they're going to have to dissolve Ripple Labs or no longer be in control of the network. So they're going to have to find other arrangements for XRP to continue. So maybe in the end it's going to be a good outcome, a positive outcome for XRP holders, but it's going to take a while for sure. So in the short term, if the decision is negative, you can certainly expect a 30% or higher losses for the holders. But if the outcome is positive, yeah, it can go 2x5x, it can go even 10x on the news because everybody is expecting it. And if there's new buyers around, an XRP company is no longer selling the tokens. Yeah, it's going to rally with or without Bitcoin on Ethereum.

And Sam is could the XRP case be a catalyst for things to turn into a bull market? The second half of that question there.

I don't think it's, it's enough to be a catalyst. I think the market is still led by Bitcoin. But here's the thing. If XRP were to win, that would be a massive, massive win because I don't think anybody was really pricing in. They're, they're, they're, they're winning this case against the sec, like this is the sec, they're not going to go go after you unless they are absolutely convinced they're going to win. You know, the idea that XRP could come out of this a winner I think is going to be a, a massive boon for xrp. You could see, you know, a similar impact or a similar trickle effect on other assets. But I still think that the market is dictated by macro right now, which is what dictating Bitcoin right now in the short term. And from Bitcoin everything still seems to flow. So it'll be interesting to see what happens. But right now I don't know how much of a sustained rally the broader market can, can experience. Even if XRP were to make this, this massive victory, if and when that happens.

Could be potential, I guess, implications for the greater crypto market if the ruling is also, I guess, in favor of commodity versus not whatever, whatever. So I guess we will see. Time will tell us what that verdict will hold. All right, let's get into our Markets Pro tokens that you should have been watching this week. We had a couple newsquakes fire off. But first, don't forget to drop your Twitter handle in the chat. We're giving away $50 to one lucky winner today for the Cointelegraph Store. We're going to give you swag. So please drop your Twitter handle in the chat. But let's go ahead and jump into Markets Pro. We had two tokens you should have been watching this week. Let's go foreign. This week we had Gar Lido. We'll do Lido first. All right, Lido. What happened was yet another token that saw solid price action after a newsquake and its price was a dollar and 19 cents after this newsquake. And it announced that Lido Finance launched on arbitrum and optimism, two of the most popular layer 2 networks. The next day price rose 15% to peak out at 1.30. So love me some arbitrament in optimism. Those seem to be two thriving Layer two ecosystems. So big announcements from Lido this week. The other token that we were watching was Gari trading on the ticker G A R I like most weeks, news about partnerships also dropped ahead of a major price movement this week. This was the case for Gari, the native token of the social app Chingari, which saw a newsquake drop when it was trading at about 5 cents. This newsquake informed Markets Pro subscribers of the new partnership between Chinkari and the digital fantasy sports platform rage fan just two days later, the price soared 20% to a peak to 6 cents. So big gains for those two tokens this week. And what happened? Well, our users got those Newsquake alerts which allow them to hopefully get in on this action right as it was happening. And that's the power, having that Markets Pro app in your pocket on your phone. I see a lot of people chime in here with their Twitter handles. Awesome to see that. And that's going to do it for our Markets Pro segment for this week. All right, looks like Catherine wants to know, is anybody going to LA Blockchain? So I'm sure we are sending tons of folks there. I know it's a big event coming up here, I think in the next couple weeks at the end of October. All right, guys, let's get some closing thoughts here. I want to hear from you. What are you going to leave our audience with? Marcel?

I have a question first. Benton, earlier on you said about 15% gains and 20% gains. Is that real in crypto? It's been like a year since I had some. I think I should definitely change my.

Marcel, have you been using the Markets Pro app? That's what that is for, is those types of gains, man.

Not for trading, but yeah. For writing stories. Yeah, but not for trading. So I should be definitely be changing my momentum or what I'm doing.

Yeah, I mean, that's the power of Markets Pro, man. 15% gains in these markets. We'll take them. We will take them all day. All right. Do you have any closing thoughts for us today, though? What do you want to leave folks with at home?

Well, I can start. People are too worried about headlines on the newspapers, about inflation, about wars, about crisis and etc. And what I think is that people should understand that the only thing that's going to make you safe, whether we're in a bear market or bull market, is working on yourself. And that's mean taking courses, taking care of your health, investing in sound opportunities instead of binary options and crazy stuff. So I do think that you should step away from the keyboard, step away from the screens for a couple of days and rethink how you can develop yourself to be a better worker, a better person in society, a better investor, a better family, a better friend. And consequently, your money issue is going to resolve or at least it's going to improve after you do that. So focus on yourself first.

Excellent advice, Sam. What about you, man? What kind of closing thoughts you want to leave us with today?

Well, we'll have a wholesome closing. You know, because Marcel really set the tone for some wholesome feedback. Yeah. As Marcel said, you know, if also if you're interested in, in the crypto or bitcoin space, consider finding a way to work in the sector and getting get paid in bitcoin and crypto. Right. It's not only you, you don't, you can only. It's not only about how much crypto you can earn in a, in a bull market you can actually accumulate by working in the sector. There's a lot of opportunities as we've written about on ct. Quite often some of the brightest minds in the world right now are actually working in the crypto sector. A lot of companies are still hiring. So maybe explore some opportunities there. Use it as an opportunity to learn, learn about, you know, the various projects that you might want to invest in, also learn about the technology itself and, you know, have confidence that we're in a sector right now that is going to change the world. Bitcoin has already changed the world in many important ways. We're going to start to see that being come more actualized I think in the next 10 to 15 years. So we're still early. You have a lot of opportunity to really build some, some intellectual capital and to maybe divert your labor into potential crypto earnings moving forward.

In read cointelegraph. Our editorial team does such an excellent job of breaking down the news and educating you. So if you're tuning in today, you're a rookie. Don't know where to start. Cointelegraph, read all those articles. I know that's what I did when I first got started in the industry. And folks, your health is your wealth. I think Marcel said that very well. Everything is not about crypto. Even though we love it, we're passionate about it, we believe in it. Make sure that you take care of yourself. So excellent advice from Sam and Marcel. Such wise words from the gentleman here on the show. We appreciate everyone for tuning in. We're going to give away our $50 to the Cointeller F store. First though, I see Ahmed Bawazir at Bawa underscore77 was chiming in there during chat today. Appreciate it. You are going to be our winner, winner chicken dinner for our 50 coin telegraph gift card. We appreciate everyone from tuning in, especially those jumping in from LinkedIn today. Glad to have you here on the show. We're going to be here next Tuesday, 12pm Eastern. We're here. This is in the Market report and we are Coin Telegraph the future of Money. Thanks for tuning in.

Sa.

Sam.