Two traders break down Bitcoin's downtrend and what it needs to reverse. Bitcoin must clear $4,200 to signal a bullish shift, while Ethereum is outperforming and global trading volumes have nearly doubled to $27 billion in recent weeks.
4200 (4000–4200 zone; 4200 highlighted as pivotal).
3800 high-volume zone.
About 10%.
Approximately 13%.
About $14–15 billion.
Foreign. Let's start our analysis with the Bitcoin dollar chart. On the daily chart we are still in a downtrend and below the Ichimoku cloud. Despite the more positive sentiment and the nice up move in price on Sunday. As long as we stay below the cloud I would not get too positive. From a classical charting point of view, we need to take out the resistance at the 4200 level and set the higher high before we can talk about the positive uptrend. On the four hour chart things looked much better. We have successfully retested the cloud from the top side and moved higher dynamically afterwards. Next levels to watch are the 3800 high volume zone and of course the much more important 4000 to 4200 level. Moving over to Altcoin we see Litecoin in a healthy consolidation after its hefty up move one and a half weeks ago. The new leader it seems is Ether outperforming Bitcoin about 10% over the last days. We turned bullish on the Ether Bitcoin cross both on the four hour and the daily chart. This brings us straight to our rotation report where we clearly see the rotation out of Bitcoin into Altcoins. On the MACD charts the top 10 coins are already in the positive area and also the coins ranked 11 to 50 are pushing hefty towards the positive area. On the correlation chart we see the overall correlation between alts and Bitcoin breaking down, which in our view is a positive sign. To sum up, there are a lot of positive signs and price moves. There seems to be some opportunity in altcoins to be picked up, but as long as bitcoin stays below the 4200 level we would be cautious and set tight stop losses.
The move higher over the weekend or actually yesterday afternoon was led by Ethereum. Here we can see Ethereum is the white line on the chart. You can see there was a pop yesterday morning which was followed about 10, 20 minutes later by the rest of the markets. Everything corrected in short time, but it took Ethereum a bit longer to come back to the original price. And you can see throughout the afternoon Ethereum continued to rise while the market stayed flat. And then by the evening it turned into a kind of full on rally and we can see the results today. Ethereum up 13% since that pop happened. As far as indicators are concerned, the one that I want to point out most is the volume that's been happening on global exchanges. So here on coincheckup we can see that on February 8th volumes were bottoming out around 14, 15 billion dollars across all crypto exchanges. Then there was that noticeable spike, which did come along with a spike in volumes. And by today, we're looking at global volumes of around 27 billion, which is more than $10 billion above where we were just 10 days ago. So these strong movements happening on very strong volumes is an incredibly positive sign. Most of the volumes are happening against Bitcoin and against tether still. But I did notice checking out cryptocompare Data, that about 12% of volumes were coming in US dollars, which is a tad higher. Usually that figure is around 2 or 3%. So this could very well indicate that new money is coming into the market. My eyes at the moment are on that 200 day moving average. This blue line has basically supported the price throughout the 2017 bull run. Got a little bit detached in Q4, Q4 and Q1 over here. But as we can see throughout the bear market, Specifically during the second half of 2018, this moving average acted as a major resistance point for the market. So what I'd like to see is a strong break above that move, that that 200 day moving average, or a strong break above the psychological level of $5,000 per coin. I think that could really change the market sentiment a lot. Cointelegraph like subscribe and Hodl.
