1142: Make Ready Costs, Inflation Over 20 Years & March's Mortgage Update

I started listening to the podcast, did that for probably a couple years before I connected with your investment counselor, Sarah. She did a great job of holding my hand through the process. I probably one of the more needy clients she worked with, but ended up buying my first property in 2011 in Atlanta and then waited a few more years until my Next one, but 2014 purchased in Memphis and so that's where I am at this point.

Welcome to the Creating wealth show with Jason Hartman. You're about to learn a new slant on investing, some exciting techniques and fresh new approaches to the world's most historically proven asset class that will enable you to create more wealth and freedom than you ever thought possible. Jason is a genuine self made multimillionaire who's actually been there and done it. He's a successful investor, lender, developer and entrepreneur who's owned properties in 11 states, had hundreds of tenants and been involved in thousands of real estate transactions. This program will help you follow in Jason's footsteps on the road to your financial Independence Day. You really can do it. And now here's your host, Jason Hartman with the complete solution for real estate investors. Welcome all you wealth creators from 165 countries worldwide. It's great to have you today and a happy Monday to you. We are recording this the day before on Sunday as usual and I've got Adam here with me. We're going to go over a bunch of stuff today. Adam, let's talk about my favorite disgusting criminal bank that I like to pick on. They do rotate and they take turns but for the past few years. Who is it?

Oh, I think maybe it might be Wells Fargo.

If I had a guess, just maybe those disgusting criminals at Wells Fargo, well they just inked a $240 million settlement. Yes, that is a quarter of a billion dollars for the execs knowledge of the fake account scandal. So Wells Fargo has been hit with a whole bunch of fines lately and just a disgusting, disgusting company. So if you bank with Wells Fargo, consider changing. Hey, you know, most banks do suck in some way or another. But Wells Fargo right now is far and away the worst big bank. They are just disgusting. Absolutely. Shame on Wells Fargo at every level. And hey, while we're at it in the corporate shame department, shame on Google too because Google has just cited with Saudi Arabia because they have this apparently just learned about this the other day. This app that basically allows men to track their wives and girlfriends, I guess track their movements and control their travel. Yes, there's an app for that. It's not only this disgusting oppression of women that goes on. But hey, Google has enabled technology to help with this oppression. Can you believe it, Adam? I mean, this is. It's 2019.

Well, yeah, it's 2019, but it's in Saudi Arabia. So Americans aren't going to care.

Yeah, well, I don't know. You know, I think they should care.

Oh, I agree they should. But it's one of those things that's not going to make the news here because, you know, it's in Saudi Arabia and hey, there, there are frenemies. So you got to.

Frenemy is a good word for it. Yes. You know, America, like every other big corporation is just a big corporation, comes down to oil and business and all of that stuff. But you, we're pretty much oil independent now. I mean, what's the big deal here? Why are we kowtowing to them? You know, we got Obama bowing to the Saudi king. We've got every leftist in the US Just looks the other way at this, you know, radical Muslim oppression stuff. Who controls the news media in the United States? Of course, we've got, you know, a very left wing bent to this. They just look the other way. It's unbelievable. To me. It's unbelievable. Yet they support feminism. It's so contradictory. It just blows my mind. It's crazy. But hey, that's enough for the culture war. Let's talk about inflation and investing. Adam, I posted a really interesting graph in our private content group. It's an American Enterprise Institute study that shows the rates of inflation for different items. Did this one amaze you as much as it did me?

It was pretty shocking. But the part I would say that didn't amaze me is what's below the overall inflation. Because we were talking about this before, pretty much everything below the line has a whole lot to do with technology. It's cars, clothing, which is made by, you know, machines, not people these days. Cell phones, software, toys, TVs. I mean, everything that can be made smaller by computers or by machines is not surprisingly at 0%. Or says here TVs are at like negative 90%.

Isn't that amazing? That's the deflation rate of TVs. So the price has dropped dramatically. Now this is a study and by the way, the graph is from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, actually not the American Enterprise Institute. They did this. They did a wide ranging study with a whole bunch of narrative. But this shows from 1998 until 2018. So we've got 20 years of inflation. And as Adam refers to it, we'll call it the below the line inflation or deflation. And the above the line inflation. And all products and services are impacted by technology in one way or another, obviously, over the last 20 years. But some get a much greater benefit from technology. And it's all buried into their supply chain, just making these businesses and the production of these products so much more efficient. And then you combine that with globalization and offshoring and wow, wow, wow. And you know, one of the things they have here is cell phone service. I think that one's kind of interesting. The cost of cell phone service has declined in the past 20 years. By it looks like I'm going to say that's about 45, 48% maybe on that. You have to read it from the graph. So it's not an exact number, but I remember when I got my first cell phone, it cost $3,200. It weighed 14 pounds. Yes. I could take it out of the car, but it weighed 14 pounds. But it did come out.

You just needed a backpack for it.

Well, it was like a lunchbox. It had a handle on it, you know. And if you're curious to see this cell phone, just go ahead and search on the Internet for Mobira cell phone and you'll see a picture of it. The cell phone service, you had the choice between two companies, LA Cellular called back then, I don't remember. But Anyway, it was $45 per month for the service and then 45 cents per minute. And there were no programs of any sort. It was just 45 cents a minute. That was it. And so whenever you'd call someone, you'd be really stressed out when they put you on hold because you're just burning up minutes. I remember my cell phone bills back then used to be like $800 a month.

And half of that was waiting on hold.

Maybe, maybe it was. But you would always say to the receptionist, you would say, I'm calling from a cell phone. Please hurry. Like literally that would be okay to say that back then, I will say.

I was a little surprised by the food and beverage because I would think with all of the technology going into, like the machines that help the farmers get their crops faster and the fact that all of the beverages are essentially made by machines that I was surprised that stayed pretty much steady with overall inflation, which tells me that they're able to up their prices. I'm willing to bet that their profit margins have increased. Yeah, 20 years significantly.

And share the number with our audience, like over the past 20 years. What's the inflation Rate on food and beverage, just over.

So the overall inflation, that says it's about 56% and it looks like food and beverage has gone up maybe 58 or 59%. About 2 to 3% overall inflation.

Yeah, right, Right. So a little higher than overall inflation. Now that's 56% inflation in 20 years. And so although this is not the proper mathematical way to do it, it does give you a benchmark. If you just simply divide 56 by 20, you know, you get 2.8% per year as kind of the average number. And of course it's varies each year, but it really is pretty interesting. And so technology certainly impacts food and beverage. It impacts everything, but to a lesser degree than it does say computer software or televisions. Right. And it's also not just the ability or the inflation rate and how technology's impacted it, but also what they can get away with and how monopolistic or, you know, nothing's completely monopolistic. How duopolistic is the industry. So when you take a giant food company, say Archer Daniels Midland, say Kellogg's or Nestle, or you know what, I don't know, you know, all the name of these giant food companies in different categories. Right. Even Coca Cola, okay. You know, not a food company, but a beverage company. They produce a whole plethora of beverages now. Right. It's certainly not just soft drinks. It's kind of interesting to look at how a of that I think is just that, you know, you can get away with it because there's maybe there's just not enough competition in those areas. Right?

Yeah. And it does show also here the average hourly wages is above the inflation rate. But I was looking at this and thinking this is why the middle class is getting crushed in today's society. Because the average hourly wages have gone up 80%, it says, but child care has gone up almost 120%.

Yeah.

So even if you're making more per hour, if you're having to put your kid in childcare, which most middle class people do, your wages are not keeping up with how much it costs to take care of your kids. And then heaven help you if you're raising kids who are going to college.

Yeah, I was just about to say, but wait, there's more. Because when you look at college tuition, that is up What? That's about 180%. College textbooks, the most absurd number of all, up 180%. Hospital services, up about 210%. College textbooks, I mean, even more of a scam than college tuition, those Things.

Should be practically free at this point.

They should be totally free. I mean, the college industrial complex is an epic, epic scam. We've profiled that on many other episodes before this. Hey, Adam, we've got a listener question. We've got, I think, two more news items we want to get to today that really affect investors. But let's take a quick break and do your mortgage update.

All right. Welcome to the Mortgage minutes for March. We have with us Aaron, the lender for Jason Hartman's network. Aaron, how are you today?

Doing very well. How are you doing, Adam?

Oh, I'm doing well. I was just wondering what happened to the mortgage market after Jerome Powell had his whole little interview this week.

It kind of went sideways, if you will. There's been a few days that it did really well and other days and it didn't do so well. I'm gonna talk. Didn't do well, it didn't do so well is all within a finite range. And so when we're watching the mortgage backed securities trade on a minute by minute basis, some days you'll see them jump up 15, 20, 30 points. But then the next day it may take all that back, but it all's trading within one sideways range. Not a bunch of negative or positive movement that take us to a point where we'd see a completely rate struct going forward.

What mortgage rate should investors be looking at being around these days?

Most of them doing 20% down. With the higher credit scores on single families, you'll probably see them in the mid to high fives. Once you start getting into the lower loan sizes though, you're going to see some things impacted negatively. So you might start seeing those interest rates creep up, upper high fives. There is some cases they may even bridge into the sixes, but it's a very, very rare occasion. If you're talking about 25% down, you're going to see them going into the, into the lower fives, mid to lower fives on a single family. And then remember with your multi units, two to four units, it's always going to be additional 5% down. And those same rates will apply with a 25% down multi unit or 30% down multi unit to get into the lower rate range.

What are you seeing or what are you expecting to happen to the mortgage market or to the bond market? Actually, I should say now that the North Korea talks have kind of been cut off and the China deadline keeps being pushed back and looming, is that impacting the bond market at all?

Everybody's Thinking that it should. But we're just seeing that there's a lot more emotional in the trading and a lot. Well, and there's some technicals that are trading in the trading. We start looking at the floors and the ceilings, those supports within the trade range as well as the resistance lines that all the traders are looking at. They're having an impact on what happens on a day to day basis within the mortgage market, or at least what's happening with mortgage backed securities, which in turn falls within the bond market. We would anticipate there to be more of a positive movement in the mortgage backed securities and in the bonds than what there really is right now because of where the rest of the economic data is. I was looking at a lot of that stuff this last week and right now I'm not able to conjure up everything that's there. But I know that one of the things that many people are looking at is what is going to push us potentially into a next recession. They're looking at the inversion of the yield curve on the ten year and the two year Treasury. What we've noticed, if you look backwards through history, those inversions were rather, rather heavy. And we've gotten to where every time we've seen that inversion happen it was with a smaller peak to the point where we may not even have an inversion occur to actually go into a recessionary position within our economy. So there's a lot of interesting nuances going on in the, in the market right now that I would have thought would have had a little bit more impact than this really happened.

Okay, I was about to ask you about that. So we did see the yield curve invert back in December. But you haven't seen really any of the recession concerns coming just from that though, Correct?

We haven't seen any of that occur because there's a lot still. Hold on. You're going to see, you'd want to, you would see the stock market move a lot more negatively if we'd be experiencing what everybody's anticipating to come from that inverted yield curve. And so there is a point, you are correct, where we did see the inversion happen and we just haven't had the effects yet. Or at least there isn't the follow up that has happened in the past when we had that inversion yet. But also an inversion sometimes takes a year for that to follow. It's a leading indicator. It's not necessarily the cause to the effect, it's just an indicator of a potential effect.

With the interest rates dropping recently, have you seen an Uptick in investment loan applications coming in and not necessarily just from your office, but have you heard anything about an increase or decrease in mortgage starts from other competitors or workers?

No, actually we've seen an increase over the last 12 months, a very slight increase. I have looked at the stats from others and we're seeing a decrease. And so I'm not seeing an overall increase on people buying investment real estate. I wouldn't say that it was a hype or anything. I would just say that the big charge had kind of tapered off a little bit. So I'm not seeing that anybody has seen this big rise in it. It seems like it's fairly steady, if not slightly off of its highs, if you will.

I would have expected rates dropping to kick up the number of applications you were getting.

The other thing is I'm always getting a lot of them. I mean, I'll see 100 plus a month. So it's been pretty consistent at that, anywhere from 90 to 110 pretty consistently for about two and a half years now.

Is there anything the Fed's potentially doing that could surprise us and impact our rates in the near future? How do you think they're going to respond if the China deal falls apart and the tariffs kick in? How would that impact us?

Well, if they kick in, then of course it's going to have a negative effect on the economy. I don't see the Fed raising well, it wouldn't make sense to me that they would. His most recent speech has been what they call very dovish. He's been taking a very timid, I would say timid, but very cautious approach to everything. Where before is like we're gonna raise, raise, raise, raise, raise to where now that's not quite the attitude. So there have to be pretty substantial, I think, for him to go in one direction, change to a different direction, to change back again. There has to be some pretty significant things going on in the background to make that happen.

What questions should people ask their mortgage broker when they come in to do an investment loan?

I personally would ask them, where do they invest? Where are they putting their investment dollars at? And then also just start asking more details and what's my rate and what is my cost? Try and find out how they will assist that person in the business side of it. Are they one that would give any sort of information on what decisions they should be making as the CEO of their real estate investment business? Meaning that that investor is the. The one who runs that business are gonna have to make some decisions to make sure that's successful. Well, they're gonna need to be sure that all the people they bring into it, whether it be from your guys' side or the lending side or the insurance side, any of them. I want to find out what kind of a role is that person playing in the overall business form, or are they just gonna throw in, here's my rate, here's my cost, I'm close the loan for you because as I've said in the past, the large banks have proven you can take a monkey out of a cage, give it a phone and some training, it'll close loans. It's not that big a deal, not that hard. But what is hard is, is that person going to be there when you need information to draw from, when those heavy decisions have to come.

All right, well, Aaron, thank you very much for your time today. We appreciate it.

So, yeah, the, the inflation chart is really, really telling when you look at how things have changed. But, you know, they don't include a whole bunch of things in there. They don't include the tax rates, they don't include the rate of government fines. I was recently looking at traffic ticket inflation prices. That's pretty amazing, mind boggling. And let me tell you something, Adam. The Fed chair, Jerome Powell, Here's a quote. I got an amazing quote for all our listeners. This is going to blow your mind away and it really should scare all of us. Powell recently said we are targeting price inflation, not wage inflation. Wow. So basically what he's saying is we are trying to increase the price of everything, but not if you can afford it. Who cares if you can afford it? I mean, he might as well have just said we're trying to impoverish the middle class. Unbelievable. You can't make this stuff up, folks.

You read a book about that and you think, man, that guy's a jerk.

Yeah, right.

You realize it's real life. Oh, I was going to tell you earlier, just going back to your first news story about Wells Fargo. I heard this story a little while back and it would be, if you didn't live in the United States, this would be your favorite bank. The National Australia bank charged fees to dead customers. So they took a page out of the Wells Fargo playbook and created, I think it was 100. They had to pay $100 million in fines to customers because they were charging dead people fees.

Unbelievable. I wonder how they do that. There must be. Basically, they're charging it to their estate or their relatives or how do they do, how do they actually mechanically do that? I wonder.

Well, it looks like they were also providing advisor services, and they just kept charging fees from the member's account after they told them of the death. So instead of transferring it to the person and letting them decide what to do, they just kept charging them regardless. And so I heard it, and the first thing I thought of whenever I heard that was, oh, they took a page out of the playbook.

Yeah, absolutely. They were copying Wells Fargo. So what they must have been doing is, you know, some banks offer trustee services for their wealthier clients. And I actually asked about this because I have a trust, and I would, I guess, maybe not trust my bank to be my trustee. You know, I mean, they probably wouldn't just bail with the money or the assets of the trust. They basically told me that we won't even consider trustee services unless you have at least 5 million on deposit with us. At the time, I had just over 3 million on deposit with that bank. I thought that was pretty good, but I guess it wasn't enough for them. You're probably saying, listen, why would you keep so much money in the bank, Jason? Well, you know, I'm doing deals and I'm moving in and out of deals, and I'm doing hard money lending and so forth lending on some of the properties that you end up buying. Dear customers, I'm financing those acquisitions for our providers. So I do have some cash on hand to do that stuff.

Maybe they wanted it to be 5 million so they could steal a little bit money from you and you wouldn't notice.

Right? Yeah, I know. It's absolutely nuts. Absolutely nuts. Hey, we've got a listener question. And one more thing, though, on inflation and the efficiency issue, I complained before at the price of all of these subscriptions. We live in a subscription society nowadays. And all of you as consumers, you see, you have all these subscriptions to streaming services, cell phone companies, et cetera, et cetera, et cetera. But as a business, you have even more, because a lot of the software you use is a software as a service, a SaaS product. And so these subscription fees are becoming pretty enormous. They really are. But the question is, compared to what? And I was at this marketing conference last week in San Diego looking at all of these different services, all of these different tools that are available for business people. And overall, the tools are pretty incredible. And the prices, even though they have increased a lot in the past 10 years, I mean, the prices of these services are just inching up constantly, constantly, constantly. But still, compared to What? Compared to 20 years ago? Hey, These things didn't even exist. Okay. And they are pretty amazing. So that is reducing friction and making supply chains more efficient. My girlfriend was at the conference with me and she's an E commerce seller and sells physical. Physical products. But even in her business of physical products, the vast majority of them, of course from China, the supply chain and the marketing chain for those products is much less expensive than it has been historically. Although in the last 10 years, costs of these services have increased pretty dramatically. So both are true. Right? 20 years ago, the services didn't even exist. Software services were more a buy it in a CD format, put it on your desktop computer. Now it's a service. And we see, of course, the prices more recently going up a lot for those services.

So, yeah, I've noticed with the services that I have, they have a hard time increasing the prices. Actually, whenever like the Adobe Audition, the Adobe suite that I have, they haven't raised the price on me in a couple. I think I've had it for about four or five years and they haven't increased the price on me. There's a couple of web development stuff that I have that they maybe have increased the price maybe $10 in the past seven or eight years. If you're doing a software as a service, just be careful that you price your product in a way that you're okay with it staying there for the next couple of years and not increasing much.

If the price is, if the product is really sticky, though, you can get away with sticking it to your customers because they know that it's so hard to change that people will put up with a lot in terms of price increases. So it really depends how sticky it is and how competitive that marketplace is. It's interesting. Want to grab that listener question?

Absolutely. So we have a question from Brian who really enjoys listening to the interviews with investors. So if you want to do a client case study, we would love to have you on. Go to jasonhartman.com ask and we'll get you on as soon as we can. And he also loves your perspectives on real estate and appreciate your willingness to reflect on your missteps so that we can benefit from your experience.

Thank you very much for that. Learn from my mistakes, not your own. That's one of the ideas of the show.

So Brian wants to know, Brian says he is a relatively new investor and he's now experiencing his first two make readys. So what is a fair way to determine what should be held back from a security deposit?

Oh yeah, good question. So generally speaking, and this does vary, Brian, based on locale and what's customary there. But of course, generally speaking, the tenants are responsible for anything they break. Okay? They're not responsible for what's considered normal wear and tear. So this is one of the problems of having a property manager. Now, as much as I will complain about bad property, managers understand that there are good ones out there and that even if they ding you here and there and shave off a little, you know, money here and there from your profits, which they should not do, but even if they do, and even if you're not really paying close attention and you allow them to do that, remember, compared to what our investment class of income property is so proven, so multidimensional and so powerful and resilient that it's much better than the graft and corruption you're going to put up with on Wall street. And it's much better than the characteristics of any other investment in the world. So normal wear and tear. And by the way, we should do a show on this sometime. Adam, there are calculators for this, there are scales for this where you can find out, you know, long is carpet expected to last, for example, and hopefully, as I've mentioned before, you're bulletproofing more and more of your properties and you're putting in hard surface flooring, especially the vinyl wood looking plank, we like that one the best because that will make your property more and more bulletproof. So whenever you get to the point where you're replacing carpeting, pay a little extra, get a couple of estimates to make sure you get a good price and replace it with hard surface flooring so that your house just becomes more and more bulletproof. When you're repainting, I want you to repaint that old flat paint with an eggshell finish or a low sheen paint because it's much, much more durable. Okay? Now, eggshell is not the color, it's the finish. That paint, you know, you can just wipe it off with a rag and water or 409 cleaner or whatever rather than having to touch up, paint it again. So I really like the eggshell and the low sheen paint because it's so much more durable. Hard surface flooring make your houses more durable. Every time you're redoing something, I want you to redo it in a more durable way than before and get multiple quotes on it. One of the great things you can do is you can simply go into a Home Depot and you can check prices. You can go on a lot of websites, a lot of flooring company Websites now just have calculators on their website where they can tell you the cost right there. So you can make this a lot easier and make sure you're keeping your property manager in check. But my point, Brian was in to say that your property manager will many times because there's this inherent conflict of interest that exists. They try to keep the tenant happy, they try to keep the owner happy. The old saying, you can't serve two masters, so they may be reluctant to take money out of your tenant's security deposit on a make ready, but you should not be, do not let them make this decision without your input. If they say, oh well, something broke, right, that is the tenant's responsibility if they break it. Okay? Now of course you have to make a judgment call here. You know, things are not always totally clear, but if they broke something, if they damaged something, they need to pay for it. And don't be afraid to take money out of your tenant's security deposit. They should be responsible for this stuff. You know, the same would be true if you rented a car and you damaged the car. You'd have to pay for that or your insurance would. It wouldn't be the car rental company's responsibility. So normal wear and tear is the only thing you can't charge the tenant for. Adam, thoughts?

Yeah, I was going to say the first question you should ask your property manager whenever they say this is broken is how did it break? Because we had a situation where a light fixture on the porch was dangling.

I remember that one for you.

And they were wanting to charge us for it happening. And my response was, well, how did it break? And then they apparently went and asked the tenant and then they came back and said, well, we're fixing it or charging the tenant for it because it broke. But I would also say if you're self managing, look at your contract, look at the state laws and see how long you have to get them their security deposit back. And if you have a handyman you've been using for repairs on your property, call them up as soon as you know when your tenant is leaving and say, hey, I want you to go in, I want you to look at, take pictures, show me what's wrong and give me a quote. And then once you have that quote, you can look and see was this wear and tear or did they mess this up? And then you get, you have a quote. So you know, hey, you guys broke it, you owe me this much money for it. And here's proof that you broke it.

I cannot believe how some of these property managers try and pass things off to the owner. It really bugs the heck out of me. I'll give you one example. On mine, you know, this property manager says we're going to go ahead and do this roof repair on your property. Here's what they give me, Adam, this just happened last week. They send me a handwritten quote on the repair with no information. There's no information as to who the vendor is. There's no contact information for the vendor. There's nothing. And I said, no, you're not going to do this. Because first off, I want to know who the vendor is. I want their name, their address, their contractor license number. They're, you know, some of these don't have websites, okay, because they're little one off vendors. But I, you know, I'd like to go look at their website. I want to look them up. I want to see who this company is that you want to do the work. And if it's something that's $500, you should be getting at least two, if not three quotes on that. You will not believe how much the prices vary on this kind of stuff. It is absolutely mind boggling. And you must know who the vendor is. You can't do business with a mysterious vendor picked by your property manager. You have to know who the vendor is. And you know what, a lot of times if you make a six minute call to that vendor and you say, hey, can you do any better on the price? They'll say, sure, let me knock 15% off for you. I mean, just for asking, a little quick phone call. So yeah, you've got to be your own best advisor and that's what we want to help you do. We want you to be the empowered investor. Always.

That's your answer. Brian, if you're self managing, make sure you get that quote quick. If you have a property manager, make sure that they're giving you as much information as you can possibly get.

Very good way to sum that one up, Adam. We should probably adjourn for today unless you've got anything else.

That's all for me?

All right, we'll talk to you tomorrow. Everybody remember, we're here five days a week. And oh, one reminder, of course, with meet the Masters coming up. You know, of course get your tickets for that if you haven't done so already. We have the venture alliance that now only opens two times each year and it's before the events as we've got an event coming up. Meet the Masters or prophets in paradise, which we do in the fall. And that's going to be, you know, we'll announce that later as to the specifics about Profits in Paradise, but it only opens up until the end of the event. So if you wanted to join a Mastermind group and really take your real estate investing career, if you will, to a higher level, the Venture Alliance Mastermind is@venturealliancemastermind.com Again, that's only open through the end of Meet the Masters. Venture alliance members, of course, will have an extra day Meet the Masters on Monday following the event where we do kind of a cool debrief and really just work on all the stuff that Masterminds do. And it's just such an incredible thing. And then we will shortly be announcing our next Venture alliance retreat and we are tentatively slated for Charleston, South Carolina in May, so look for more info on that. We're going to do the Cuba trip later this year near the Profits in Paradise event in the fall. So with that, we'll talk to you all tomorrow. Everybody Happy investing. Welcome to Meet the Masters of Income Property Investing. I am your host, Jason Hartman.

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One of the great things about it is that it's so fragmented. Right? Embrace the fragmentation.

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