1222: Rentals During Deflation, June's Mortgage Interest Rates & 2019 Real Estate Stats from National Association of Realtors

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Welcome to episode 1222. 1222. Thank you for joining us today. We want to talk to you about some statistics from the national association of Realtors, otherwise known as nar. So we got to go over some of those. We've got to go over a in depth listener question. We were late in getting you your mortgage update and hey, it's the first time we're ever late on this, folks, so cut us some slack. So we're going to give you your mortgage update today and I'm here with Adam to go over some of these things. Adam, welcome back.

Thanks. It's good to be back.

By the time you hear this, dear listeners, I will be in Europe, but we've got some statistics from the national association of Realtors. They are quite good at stats, although we do need to understand their motivation, their goal. Like Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac and just a giant industry, they are promoting housing, so let's understand that. But hey, the stats are the stats and I don't think they're making those up. Cash buyers. Now this is interesting. Cash purchases of properties are down a little bit, right?

Yeah. So all of these stats are from April because that's the most recent stats that they have available. And you say that they're promoting buying, but a lot of these stats aren't making people want to buy. It says cash sales are down. They were 21%. Now they're down to 20%, which doesn't sound like a huge thing until you think that's actually a 4% drop.

I'm glad you look at it the right way, Adam. That is definitely true. And one thing I want to say to you is that almost all real estate statistics have a pretty big lag time in them because as we've told you over the years, you. You gotta wait for the thing to happen, then you've gotta wait for the data to be called. And with real estate, it's really quite slow because some of the data is MLS data. It depends on the stats. Right. Which statistic you're talking about. Some is MLS data, but some is data from the county recorder's office in a given municipality. Right. And so that happens. And, you know, there's like a month lag there. Well, actually, let me go back a little bit. The deal has to happen. Someone has to sign the deal. Like I'm going to buy the house, I'm going to sell the house. The meeting of the minds between buyer and seller, and then they have to close the transaction. That might take 30, 45, 60, 90 days, who knows? Right. It might even take longer than that. And then the transaction is recorded and then they get the data from the county recorder's office. So it's quite a lag time. And this is one of the things about real estate statistics. In most cases you are looking in the rear view mirror by a few months. Go ahead.

One of the good news is foreclosures and short sales are down 4% year over year, which is the lowest they've actually seen since they began tracking in May 2011. Now, for us, that is both good and bad because you have to remember, a lot of the local market specialists are buying these foreclosures and short sales to fix up for us to purchase.

Yeah. That means tighter inventory if they can't get more foreclosures and short sales to buy from those distressed sellers and then do rehabs on them and sell them to our turnkey investors. Right?

Yeah. And there's a big thing to me was the April sales. The April sales were 5.2 million, which was down 0.4% from March. But they were actually expecting an increase of, I believe, around 2%. So this was actually a huge drop off from the expected sales. And it was also down 4% year over year. And that is one of the things that when people are talking about the housing market and the consumer confidence, it's gonna drop it. And that might actually have its impact in regards to the Fed and what they're deciding to do later in the year.

Okay. And I just wanna Say that's not the number of transactions per month, that's the annualized number, 5.2 million. Okay, so median sales price is up 3.6% year over year to $267,300, right?

Yep. That's up 3.6%. And, but listings are also up almost 8% year over year. So more people are trying to sell their house.

Right. And fewer people are buying those houses. So here's the thing. We've got to look. You've really got to consider what those statistics mean. And here's what they mean, in my humble opinion.

Oh, so humble.

Oh, so humble. Very. I'm super humble. Who's incredibly humble opinion. I'm bragging about how humble. My opinion.

So we see that. And what's really happening out there is the higher price. Cyclical markets are declining, if not almost crashing in some cases, and that's bad news for them. And the inventory is increasing pretty dramatically in those markets. So $750,000 and above in housing price, you're seeing a significant softness in those markets. This does not apply to $100,000 and $200,000 houses. Those are still flying off the shelves and inventory is pretty scarce. So again, it's the tale of two markets, right? The cyclical markets versus the linear markets. The low priced bread and butter sensible markets versus the high priced speculative markets where everybody's a gambler and the gamblers have kind of left the table. They've, you know, as Kenny Rogers says, you got to know when to hold them and know when to fold them, know when to walk away and know when to run. Largely, the buyers have at least walked away from those markets. Maybe a slow jog, maybe. Yeah, good. It's a slow jog. Maybe they're not running, but they're jogging away. So they are rejecting the seller's greed in those high end cyclical markets. 24 days on market, is that an average or a median number, I wonder? I don't think we know that.

Yeah, no, they just said 24 days on market. Now they did say that April signed contracts. I mean, these are obviously not all going to close, but the signed contracts in April were down 1 1/2% from last month and 2% from last April. So there is fewer people saying they're going to buy in this April as opposed to last April.

Right, right. And they have two real ways of looking at that. One way is to look at the Multiple Listing Service, the mls. And when the status of a property goes from for sale to under contract or in escrow, call it what you like, depending on what market you're in, that is the signed deal. And that'll play into what they call the pending index. Right, the pending index. That gives you a quicker indication of what's going on the market. You don't have to look in the back in the rear view mirror very far for that one. But some of those deals won't close. They'll fall through. So it's not as solid as the actual sales index. And that's something to know. But 24 days on the market is not bad at all. I mean, that's pretty much a booming market if you ask me.

Now, one of the things that intrigued me because of things that I've heard from various news sources lately was their chief economist came out and said that job creation is improving, causing wage growth to align with home price growth, which helps affordability and will help spur more sales. But the interesting thing to me is I just read an article the other day, I believe you posted it in the Facebook content group saying there is actually the car industry is laying off 38,000 people in the near future. And then there's also a company called Challenger Gray and Christmas who is a global outplacement and career transitioning firm. And they've come out and said that the number of layoff announcements from April to May rose 46% and the current trend is slowing payroll growth.

Yeah. See how these things conflict? They really do. And it's hard to make sense of this stuff sometimes. One of the reasons economics is called the dismal science, maybe. But Adam, I just wanted to rewind for a second and when I was talking about the pending index, there is another important metric that the powers that be used to determine what's going on without looking too far back in the rearview mirror. And in addition to the status change in the multiple listing service I just described, they also look at mortgage applications. How many people are applying to get a mortgage and I don't know that they're that great at dividing the purchase mortgage applications versus the refinance applications. And another thing that may or may not, and I don't really know the answer, be faulty about that index. It's still a good indicator. I'm just poking a few holes in it because I want you to understand is that people will many times apply for a mortgage to go shopping for a home. It doesn't mean they bought a home. Okay? It just means they got pre qualified, the mortgage officer ran their credit and they filled out a mortgage application. But it doesn't mean they're actually getting a mortgage for sure. Most of them probably will. They'll find a home, they'll get a mortgage and do the deal, but not all of them.

And one of the things looking at the home prices and the sales prices is we've talked about how the listings were up and the median sales price is up, but the number of first time buyers was flat. So you're actually seeing more listings for the same number of people. So when you look at the fact the median sales price is up, that to me says it's probably not going to stay that way.

I would agree. I think. Well, again, you got to segment the market.

You got to segment it market by market.

Yeah. You just have to do it market by market. But okay, anything else on this? And let's move to a listener question if you're ready.

Now if you want to throw in the mortgage update. I mean, you just mentioned number of pending sales and kind of mortgage applications. That is one of the things we just talked about with one of our mortgage providers.

Excellent. Let's go to our mortgage update and then we'll be back with an in depth listener question. Here we go.

So welcome to the June edition of the Mortgage Minutes. We're joined today by one of the lenders from Jason Hartman's network. How are you today?

Good.

How are you doing, Adan?

We're doing well. So what are investors looking at in terms of rates and how have they changed over the past month? I know there are two different kind of loan sizes that are going to get you different rates. So can you go over kind of people with good credit probably putting down about 25% and what they're going to be looking at rate wise for those two different levels of loans.

So let's look at maybe say an $80,000 loan, 70,000 to $80,000 price range with a FICO score of about 740. Plus with 25% down, you're going to be looking at about five and a quarter, 20% down, you'd be looking at about 5.75% today.

Okay. And what about when we get into the bigger loans?

So if you go into a little bit of a higher price point, let's say like $100,000 with a 25% down payment, you're looking about 4.875. And then if you want to put down 20%, you're looking about 5.5%. So you'll see about a quarter of a point difference between the two scales. You know, that price point now we've.

Been hearing about how personal residence rates have been dropping pretty significantly recently. Have you been seeing the same thing in the investment grade?

We have been. So the media does play a big role in kind of emphasizing that. So as many investors know, you're going to see a different rate, a more favorable risk, let's say, on a primary or a second home purchase or refinance. The good news is that we've seen in the last few weeks we've had kind of some market updates from the different economists that kind of specify what predictions might be ahead. So there's not going to be another rate hike, I should say there's going to be a rate cut they anticipate most likely by September and possibly even a second one by December.

Now as we look at that, how has, as the rates have gone down, have you seen more applications for loans or has it kind of remained constant?

We certainly have. So even with the different market specialists, you know, have, you know, much more inventory available. So in spring we've seen, you know, much more of a push with purchase applications. We've even seen investors questioning whether they should move forward with a cash out refinance on some of their properties that they have either a mortgage on or that they own free and clear. So volume has certainly increased.

As you mentioned, there's been talk of potentially a rate cut. What kind of things are you seeing that are playing a big role in, in the people's confidence that are then impacting the bond rates as they go up and down? Like what are the things that are currently going on and things that are potentially coming up that might impact that.

So one of the biggest things that has impacted the US and China trade talks and more so recently with Mexico as well. So we see that that's a big dynamic for pushing possibly our rates to go down. You know, with that being said, you know, most investors will follow different market updates and you know, question that whether or not that might have an impact on our rates. And it certainly does. So we always say to follow that 10 year treasury note and you'll be able to see the difference in even just the last 30 days, how that has decreased from where it was at, you know, in early May and now.

We'Ve seen the yield curve invert several times recently. Has that been causing any distress in your market?

None in ours really. I know that outside of that, it might kind of sense that they might be ready for recession. We tend not to really kind of look at that. We're more looking at global things that might be happening to kind of push rates to go further down. So like I said before, the US and China trade talks has been a big impact.

If they do cut, do you think you'll just be maybe a quarter percent or kind of what impact do you think that might have on.

Absolutely.

So it'd be only about a quarter of a point with the feds cutting the rate for the first time that they would probably do that in September.

Alright. Is there anything else investors should know as they look at whether or not they should be buying or if they should be holding off for a better rate?

You know what, we always say that, you know, might as well do it now, get pre approved. And once you do go under contract with us, if we see any improvements with the market, we can certainly renegotiate the rate for the investor. But you know, with the spring market upon us, you know, I wouldn't, I wouldn't hesitate to hold off.

Well, thank you very much for your time. I appreciate it.

Thanks, Adam. I appreciate it too.

All right, coming back here. And the next mortgage update will be pretty close to that one because we got to get back on track with our timing here. Let's talk about a listener question. And this is, this is kind of in depth here. Adam, do you want to share that with us?

Yes. Robert went to Jason hartman.com ask, which everybody should do because everybody has questions. He said he's a longtime listener of your podcast and a big fan. He listens to about 20 podcasts regularly and you are number one. And one question he'd like to hear discussed is the risk of deflation. He said you've talked about inflation induced debt destruction for years as a big reason to own single family rentals. And he agrees. But just to play devil's advocate, from 1929 to the early 50s, rents in a lot of America actually fell and took 25 years to get back to where they were at the peak. That would be bad for owning rentals. And as an aside, the answer is maybe. And he said it would be great if this topic could be discussed on the podcast. I know the theory is that central banks will just print money to stop deflation and thus cause inflation. But what if this stops working? What if they can't stop deflationary forces? Japan has seen the deflation in real estate prices and rents for 30 years and possibly a lot of Europe recently too. There have also been periods recently where rents can be very flat in certain cities for 10 to 15 years. Phoenix comes to mind from say the late 1990s to 2012.

Yeah. Okay. Well, first off, Robert, I have to compliment you. You have done your homework. So that's good, folks. This is what I love about our listeners. You know, we have listeners who are sophisticated. They have deep understanding of this stuff. And our clients and listeners are just wonderful. I love all of you people. You're the greatest. So thanks for the very thoughtful question. And hey, if you think my podcast is number one or. Well, I know it's number one with you, please go write a review on a few of the podcast platforms and tell the world what you think. We'd appreciate that. But, Robert, to answer your question, first off, you got to look at. Before we even get into it too deeply, you got to look at the time frame you picked up. I mean, 1929 to 1950. Think about what happened. We had the Great Depression that began in 1929. We had 1933 where people had to turn in their gold. The gold confiscation. The Great Depression lasted pretty much all through the 30s until the greatest public works project of all time arguably ended the Great Depression. What was the largest public works project of all time? It was known as World War II. Okay. And you know, World War II, I mean, you can't even talk about the economy during a world war. It's just too big. Half of the country's men, well, maybe more, I don't know, you know, at least of age, were off on aircraft carriers and in foreign lands fighting a war, or they were supporting the military machine. Here we had Rosie the Riveter. You know, my grandma would tell me stories about how things were during the war and how they would conserve everything. In fact, I watched an interesting documentary a few months back about the guy who invented the television but never got credit for it. It was such a sad story. And RCA basically stole it from him. And it was just because of the way events played out. Talk about bad luck. When World War II happened, basically the development of the television kind of stopped, and all of the factories were dedicated to the war effort. I remember my ex girlfriend telling me about what her grandmother told her about World War II and how they didn't have any nylon, so all the ladies would paint a seam up the back of their legs to look sexy, like the seam in the nylon stockings, you know? So this is a crazy time period. It's just not a good statistical sample, first of all. Okay. I mean, the worst economy and arguably, I don't know, I don't know how long, but I don't know if anything in the 1800s, was that bad? I'm not sure. Maybe it was. I just haven't studied that far back. But the Great Depression And World War II, the largest war in human history, is. It's just hard to even talk about that.

And analyze real estate during that time. But we're going to do it anyway. Have faith. Robert. We're still going to tackle your question, but I just have to give that a huge disclaimer. Adam?

Well, one of the things that popped into my head right away was you have to remember, thou shall not gamble. So if your property makes sense the day you buy it.

Mm. Rents going down in 1927, right?

Yeah. So if you're purchasing a property in right into the Great Depression, in the Roaring Twenties.

The Roaring Twenties, you know, you got the girls wearing the flapper dresses and, you know, that was an economic boom time. The Roaring Twenties.

Yeah, yeah. So if you buy it.

Oh, don't forget, don't forget prohibition. I didn't even mention Prohibition, but go ahead.

So if you buy it and it makes sense that day as it goes down. And I actually went to the census website and looked this up. Robert. In some parts of the country, rent went down in the 1940s was the only decade since the census has been keeping track. The 1940s is the only decade that saw a drop. And not even every state saw a drop. In Alabama, the rent estimate went up. In Arkansas, the rents went up. In California, the rents went down. And now these are all inflation adjusted numbers. In California, it only went down $30. So it wasn't a huge drop adjusted for inflation across the United States, it went down $27 from 1940 to 1950. And since then.

But wait a sec, Adam, just to be fair, though, you're talking about that in dollars, but compared to what? Right? I mean, how much was the rent? The average rent back then, it had to be super cheap, so that might have been a significant percentage.

Well, this is adjusted to 2000.

Oh, okay. Okay. So it's, it's, it's constant dollars, then.

Yes, they're adjusted to 2000.

Got it.

And so it went down $27. But then from the 1950 to 1960, it went up almost $100. So it's gone up pretty steadily. And so I looked across this and the numbers are pretty good. I mean, you don't see any drops there. And then I said, well, you know, let's see how it's been in apartments, just out of curiosity. So I went and found a chart that has from 1960 to 2010.

Hey, listeners, isn't Adam a great investment counselor? Look at all this research he's doing. This is awesome. Good job, Adam.

Thanks. And I showed this to you and this was the depressing one. So since 1960, rents have gone up.

If you could see this chart. Wow, this is shocking.

Yeah, I'll link this in the show notes. Definitely. The number of cost burden renters from 1960 to 2014 doubled. It doubled because your rent went up, I believe it was 70, right around 65% or so. And your wage went up right. About 20%.

Yeah. When you.

Four years.

When you see this chart, go to Jason hartman.com, click on this episode number. See, get the link to the show notes. Because this chart, in fact, Adam, maybe you can just paste the actual chart, but you need the link too, with the article into the show notes because this is, honestly, I'm going to say this is sad.

Oh, yeah.

You really see how the standard of living has declined in terms of the hard assets being the home in which you live. Right. If you're a renter in $1960, the dollars are constant. Okay. In this chart. It's amazing the way they've just departed the two lines from each other. Income much lower than rental rates. And so that just means people have to accept less and less and less. And the standard of giving living well, and the standard of giving, maybe both gets worse and worse and it deteriorates. Now, technology improved certainly during those times, especially from 1990 on. But wow, you know, you hear these faulty stats. I mean, I've talked about it before, but they say, well, people are living so much better now. You know, the average baby boomer home that was built after World War II was 900 square feet or 1,000 square feet. And today it's, you know, 2,200 square feet or something like that. Faulty statistic. That is bogus. And the reason is, of course, because now people are packed in like crowded rats. Okay. Back then they had a half acre lot in a better location. So it's not the same. You can't use those kind of metrics to try and determine standard of living. They're just not accurate.

Yeah, and one of the things that killed me about this apartment pricing, one, the article is, it says the rent is still, still too damn high. That, to me, is the wrong way to look at it. It's. The wages are still too damn low.

Yeah, yeah, that's good. That's good. Yeah, yeah, yeah. Absolutely. Very good, Very good. Okay, so check the show notes. Go to jasonhartman.com and click on this episode number and you'll get all this because this is something you actually do need to see, listeners. And you know what, Adam, we should take that chart and let's put it in the Property Cast feed. We haven't mentioned the Property Cast in a while, but we have a podcast that will podcast you in the very convenient RSS feed format PDF files. I thought of this myself and I was met with opposition galore. Everybody saying it could not be done. I'm sure my competitors will copy me because, hey, they don't have any original ideas. Sorry, competitors, you just don't have any original ideas. So copycat. And you will get the actual performance of the property in a feed. You can look at them on your mobile device, your phone, computer, whatever. Very, very convenient. And over the years, I really hope this becomes a nice historical record for us and for our clients so that they can look back and sometimes they're going to have regrets and they're going to say, shoulda, coulda, woulda. I wish I would have purchased this house and that house and I wish we'd been doing this for longer. And you know, once in a while on my Facebook memories, which is the best feature of evil Facebook, I see these properties I posted years ago come up on my memories and you know, Here is this 2,800 square foot house in Atlanta, Georgia. And it was so cheap and the numbers were so good and you know, we sold that property to one of our clients, of course, but gosh, there were so many deals like that back in the day. It's should have, coulda, woulda. That's what you always have in real estate, the reluctant investors lament. Like the poem I read sometimes. So.

So I've just been sitting here looking at the census chart that I was talking about with the rents decade by decade from 1940 to 1950, just because I wanted to segment out the states that we're currently selling properties in, just looking at linear versus cyclical markets. Looking at where we're selling properties right now, there's some, I believe in Alabama, maybe not too many, that went up from 1940 to 1950 when most other stuff was going down. Tennessee, where there's a whole lot of properties that went up as well, you look at Pennsylvania that went down, but Mississippi had a huge jump. Mississippi went from 117 to $149 whenever the rest of the country was dropping off. And then I looked at Ohio. Ohio dropped off about $40. So more than half of our states were increasing in value, whenever nationwide, it was decreasing. So that's a good sign for linear markets. I mean, even if you have the terrible, terrible economic conditions that happened, it still was better than the rest of the country, if you look at it that way. Compared to what? Better than the rest of the country.

Right, right, yeah, very good point. Okay, so we got to circle back to the real question here, and we certainly covered some of it, but deflation is the question. Deflation is certainly possible. We saw some aspects of it during the Great Recession. We certainly saw it during the Great Depression that you brought up in your question. And by the way, many of you listening won't know what I'm about, what I'm saying when I'm about to say this, but do you recognize the phrase good night, John boy? Well, that's from the Waltons. Okay. A TV show. Yes, it's an old TV show and it's set in the Great Depression. You know, it's interesting to watch, like I always say, watch old movies, watch old TV shows and just go and find an episode of the Waltons on YouTube or whatever and watch it and just. It helps you gain an understanding. And of course, we had Amity Shlaes on the show before and she wrote the famous book called the Forgotten man and that chronicles a lot of stuff that happened during the Great Depression. So definitely some interesting works on that. But yeah, deflation can happen, no question about it. It is not very likely because we want to align our interests with the powers that be always. And the powers that be do not want deflation. It's a very bad deal for them, both in terms of political popularity, but also in terms of paying off through inflation induced debt destruction, their own debt. But look, say it happens, right, Adam? Say we have this massive bout of deflation. I mean, we certainly saw some of that during the Great Recession, just 10ish years ago, give or take. What did people do? What is the option they have if they bought a bunch of property and say that property deflated in value, number one, the question is, did the value of the property deflate or just the rental income or both? They're not always together. Many times they're the complete opposite. When the value deflates, as long as the population hasn't declined, then the rents actually stabilize or they even go up because you have people getting foreclosed on, kicked out of their house, and you don't have anybody moving into the buying market with any great degree of volume. So they've got to live somewhere and that puts upward pressure on Rent. So that's great for investors when that happens because, hey, we don't need to sell. We just get the yield. We milk the rental income. It's wonderful. But if it does go badly, just do what millions of people did during the Great Recession and certainly during the Great Depression, just give the property back. I mean, that's the choice. The contract says pay the mortgage or give us the collateral. Here you can have the collateral. And that's not without some implications in terms of your credit report. But during those times, financing just contracts anyway. So really think about it. Do you really need your credit that much during those economic times? Because even if you had an 800 FICO score, what loans are available? You know, that's the irony of the whole situation.

You know, And I would have to say, if you think about if another Great Depression hit tomorrow, if you wake up and the Great Depression two has hit, what's the first thing that's gonna happen is our stock market is gonna get cut in half. I mean, that's, you know, what happened. Basically, you wake up in the morning and, you know, stock market's gone. Your rent is most likely not going to be cut in half, day one. You're still going to have your contract. Your tenant is still likely to have their job for a while.

For a while.

Yeah, for a while.

At least that's your disclaimer. Yeah. They'll be on welfare.

Yes. And eventually, like you were just saying, if your property value gets cut in half, don't sell.

Yeah, right.

If you can still afford it, just don't sell and still get the cash flow. So, I mean, it's going to take a lot longer, in my view, for the stock market to get cut in half and make its way back up and for you to come back to zero than it will be for your rental property to lose half its value and you to lose so much money that you've lost as much as you did in the stock market.

And, Adam, maybe the biggest question we should all be asking here, and we can wrap it up with this, is compared to what? Compared to what? Because what else are you going to do? So say, for example, like you said, say you, instead of buying income property, you bought stocks. Well, how are they going to do during that time? It's going to be terrible. Say you bought precious metals. Well, some would argue that those are a hedge against inflation, but they're certainly not a hedge against deflation. Some would try to argue that. Oh, well, they work either way. Well, they don't. They're not multidimensional. They don't produce income. They have terrible tax treatment. And as we saw during the Great Depression, they were confiscated. Well, the gold was okay for $20 an ounce, I think. And then instantly, once the government got all the gold, they raised the price to $33 arbitrarily. So, you know, whatever.

And you still have to find a company that's willing to purchase the gold from you at a price that you want, right?

Absolutely. You gotta find a market for it. So compared to what is the question? I mean, oh, I can hear a few people out there saying, whoa, I got cryptocurrency, man. I got my bitcoin. Oh, gosh, let's not talk about that. We've discussed that ad nauseam. And by the way, if you're into that, you can listen to my other podcast called the Cryptocast, which sometimes, Adam, I think we should change the name of that to the Anti Crypto Cast. But I don't know, depends which way the wind's blowing. I'm not really anti again, I'd love to be wrong about it. I just think the powers that be are too darn powerful and they're not gonna let that win. So, anything else on this, or shall we wrap it up for today?

I think it's about time to wrap it up. But, Robert, thank you very, very much for your question. That made me do some research that was fun to do. And like I mentioned before, everybody who has any form of question, there's no question too dumb, because there's not such thing as a dumb question. As we learned growing up, there might be some questions that are too highfalutin for us to understand, but then we can just find an expert for Jason to interview for the show.

Or we can just fake it. You know, we could fake it till.

We make it, but go to jasonhartman.com ask and please ask us your questions.

Good stuff. Yeah. And Robert, thank you for the question. That was a great question. Really spurred some good discussion. So we appreciate the questions jasonhartman.com ask and go to jasonhartment.com, check out the properties, our upcoming events, all that good stuff. And Adam, thanks for joining me. Until the next episode, Happy investing.

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