1232: Debt Cycles & Real Estate

Just invest. It's still a great thing to do. I know it can be scary to a lot of people. Jason's been doing this a long time. He's got a lot of knowledge. We're in an age of technology and everything's at our fingertips. You can do a lot of homework on your own, but in the end, make sure you're talking to professionals like Jason.

Welcome to the Creating wealth show with Jason Hartman. You're about to learn a new slant on investing, some exciting techniques and fresh new approaches to the world's most historically proven asset class that will enable you to create more wealth and freedom than you ever thought possible. Jason is a genuine, self made multimillionaire who's actually been there and done it. He's a successful investor, lender, developer and entrepreneur who's owned properties in 11 states, had hundreds of tenants, and been involved in thousands of real estate transactions. This program will help you follow in Jason's footsteps on the road to your Financial Independence Day. You really can do it. And now, here's your host, Jason Hartman, with the complete solution for real estate investors.

Welcome to episode 1232. 1232. And greetings from Copenhagen, Denmark, a place where, surprisingly, surprisingly, it is rather difficult to find something called a Danish. Yes, Danishes are hard to come by in Denmark. Imagine that. It's just kind of an irony. They were easy to come by in Sweden, though, I will tell you that. Anyway, we've got a great episode for you today and a lot more great episodes coming up. Got here yesterday off the cruise ship and it was a rainy, ugly day, chilly and rainy, but then it became just absolutely beautiful. An absolutely gorgeous day today. And looks like that'll be the weather for the next several days. So without further ado, let's get to our episode. And here we go. It's always great to get our investment counselors back on the show. And today is one of those episodes where we have Doug back on the show and he wanted to talk about the short term debt cycle and how it impacts the broader economy, the stock market, but most importantly, how it affects us as real estate investors. Doug, good to have you. What is the debt cycle? And could you also call it the credit cycle? Those words are used somewhat interchangeably.

Yes. And the reason they're used interchangeably is because they basically describe the same thing. And what the debt cycle or credit cycle really refers to is that as an economy is growing, a lot of times what will happen is people will start borrowing more money because, of course, the value of their assets are going up. They have stable employment, Their revenue is growing, and so people are willing to loan them money. Well, eventually what happens is that money that keeps getting borrowed gets invested into things that have no fundamental value, which keeps going for a while, because speculative bubbles can continue going up and up and up and up, and speculative value still shows an increase on balance sheets. But then at some point, that speculative value thing starts going down, and then all of a sudden, these credit agreements start going into default. And if enough of these agreements go into default, then what happens is you have to sell off real ass to pay for the credit obligations, or you'll have companies that'll go out of business.

Now, let's just not talk about the corporate level, though. Let's talk about the personal level, because the same thing really happens there. What happens in a booming economy. And what Doug was just describing is commonly known as the wealth effect. Right, the wealth effect. That's a good phrase to describe it. When the wealth effect happens, people just feel richer and they feel more confident, and they feel like, hey, you know, let's go on that expensive vacation, let's buy that new car, let's buy that bigger house, let's do whatever. Because our investments have gone up in value, Their income is good, There's a lot of money in the system, so it's easy to borrow. Interest rates are low, and everybody feels wealthy. And of course, I say everybody is a figure of speech, because the rising tide does not float all ships, but it floats most of them.

Most ships.

And so that wealth effect occurs both on the personal level and the corporate level, right?

Exactly. One way to think about this is, again, not just on the corporate level, but the personal level is that when the value of assets goes up, it's easier to qualify for financing. So now what you can do is instead of needing to wait to earn the money to buy something, you can go out and borrow it very easily at very attractive rates. And this is one of the things that fuels the additions in consumer spending and bringing it back to kind of personal and real estate. The way that this cycle will affect us is that when you get onto the downside, we will start seeing situations where our tenants potentially lose their jobs. And that's where it can really impact us as investors, Even if the value of our properties doesn't materially change.

Okay? So people feel more confident, they start to borrow money, and then there's a turn and things change. Right. So what precipitates this change and how does it play out? And we're going to Play some clips from a video here to kind of explain it in a maybe a less biased fashion, because sometimes I feel like we're too close to it. Right. And we think our listeners understand a certain thing the way we think of it. But it's always nice to get another voice in here. So we'll do that in a moment. But go ahead, Doug.

The video that we're going to be looking at is actually analyzing the credit cycle from the stock market perspective. Stock people like to pretend that real estate doesn't exist, and real estate people like to pretend that equities don't exist. But the truth matters, that the two of them are very tightly linked. And so the things that impact one are going to impact the other. And so what you can do is you can actually use a lot of that stock market research that a lot of real estate people ignore. And if you know about how it interlinks back with real estate, that research can be extremely informative. But anyway, getting back to your question. Stick to the topic. Getting back to your question. What precipitates the turn? The thing that will precipitate the turn is going to be when people get to the point or when somebody gets to the point where they can't pay their loans back. Usually it's when they're borrowing money to speculate and whatever they were speculating on stops going up in value. So, for example, let's say that you were a builder called Boltruthers and you were putting a whole bunch of money.

And in English, that's Toll Brothers.

Toll Brothers, yes. Let's say that you're a builder called Bulltothers and you're building a whole bunch of expensive houses all over the country at a continually accelerating rate. Well, we are not growing a whole bunch of new people that have really high incomes. So at some point that dam is going to break. Now, that may not be this year, it may not be next year, but the train isn't going to run forever.

It will come.

That cycle will come. Yes, exactly. And so the way that every single one of these cycles breaks is when the speculative value stops going up and the loans come due and people can't pay them back.

This is when the music stops in that game of musical chairs. Correct. Okay, good. Now, the other thing you didn't mention about this video clip is that the guy has a really cool accent. So, you know, that's really the reason we wanted to bring it to you folks. But it is educational, too. So you ready to dive in, Doug?

Always ready, Jason.

Okay. Here we go.

Good day fellow investors. Everything is going well. Everybody is employed, everybody has money, everybody is happy and nobody sees any cloud at the horizon.

How I told you he had a cool accent.

The economy has always been cyclical and will always be cyclical. Therefore it is very important to see where we are in the cycle. Understand that prepare, position yourself accordingly in order to limit your risks and increase your long term rewards. That's the key to investing. If we take a look at 20 year annualized investors returns on average, we can see here that calculated by JP Morgan, the average investor has had returns of 2.3% per year in the last 20 years. That was just enough to beat inflation. So practically no real return. Everything else has done better homes, oil, Europe, Australia and the Far east developed markets, bonds, gold.

Isn't that interesting? You know that reminds me of that Peter Schiff video that I show during the Creating wealth seminars we do. And we always like to show this one live because he's arguing with that idiot from B of A. I mean you could argue that Peter Schiff's, you know, made a lot of bad predictions, but. And that's true, but what he does say is really accurate. He talks about how from the time of the previous Dow high, before the Great Recession when it was also booming from the Great Depression until then there's been really no return on stocks. The only real return has been dividends. That's it adjusted for inflation. So Doug, what's your comment?

The thing that I found really interesting was he said that it's just barely beat inflation. And the correct way to say that it is just barely beat reported inflation and hasn't even come close to real inflation for most people who aren't wealthy. Because every person has their own inflation rate. Because the reported rate of inflation is going to assume things like substitution, hedonic, etc. And waiting and waiting. Exactly. And so if you're wealthy and a very small amount of your income has to go for things like food and energy, then yeah, then you get a lot of deflationary benefits from technology. If you're working class and you have to spend quite a bit of your income on food and fuel, this 1 1/2, 2% inflation is nonsense. You just don't see it. Yeah, and so I think that's it's the real returns have been just slightly better than reported inflation and not even close to real inflation for most people.

Yeah, great point. And folks, that's exactly why you need to be investing in income property, the most historically proven asset class in the world. By the way, I didn't mention our virtual guest name. It's Sven Karlin. He's a PhD. Invest with Sven Carlin, PhD is his YouTube channel. Check it out. Here's a little more.

40, 60 stock to bond. 6040 stocks to bond. S&P 500 and REITs. Everything has done better than the average investor now. Why is that? Because first the average investor looks from a fixed perspective. They don't look at how the economy change and they do everything at the wrong moment. They invest in stocks now because the S&P 500 is strong, the risks is low, and every other asset is giving low yield. So they push their investment heavily into stocks now instead of doing that in 2009 where everybody was selling stocks. So that's one error. How you don't get to where you go. And investing now in stocks is very, very risky because we are at the late part of the debt business cycle, economic cycle, which is very natural. We're going to discuss Dalio's view on his debt cycle. Ray Dalio published a relinking article over. I'm going to go a little bit deeper into and then we're going to discuss what are the risks and how to position one's portfolio. Let's start. Ray Dalio just wrote a very interesting article on LinkedIn discussing where we are now. The economy is doing very well. People are complacent. But what's the problem here? There is the actual production of the economy and there is what the economy can produce from its potential. Whenever the demand for products grows faster than the capacity the economy has to produce those products, then the economy passes its limits with the result of inflation. We have already seen higher inflation, higher wages.

Doug, one of the things you've got a comment. But I want to bring this also back to something that you said on a recent show we did where you talked about the S and P returns versus the gdp. Wow, that's very enlightening. Go ahead though.

The thing that really struck me right there is that that principle, when the demand for something outpaces the supply, that's what drives inflation. That's what drives real estate prices up. In fact, that's actually the thing that's always driven real estate prices up. Because I think who was it that said lands the only thing they're not making any more of?

I think that was Will Rogers or something.

I was going to say that sounds like a Will Rogers kind of thing to say, but a lot of these principles really apply just about everywhere. And so I Think that's one of the things that's really important to think about as investors is that the principles that drive stock market up or down are the same things that drive the real estate market up or down. But one advantage we have as real estate investors is that if you buy into the s and P500 right now and the market goes down, you get killed. If you buy into properties right now that are prudently sourced and still produce reasonable amounts of income and the market goes down, you're fine. Here's the reason why. It's because the cash flow that you're producing can still cover your loan. And you might even be fine from an opportunity cost perspective, because chances are interest rates are going to be creeping up as the economy still keeps getting hotter. And so when the prices go down, there's a good chance that you'd be buying them at a higher interest rate. And so your payment might be pretty much about the same as it is now or pretty close, or it's not going to be as much different as a lot of people think. So one advantage that we have as real estate investors is that timing is not necessarily nearly as important as it is if you're trying to go into equity markets. Timing is everything in equity markets, and you have a lot more leeway and a lot longer cycle times if you're a real estate investor, because there's so many more factors.

Okay, so that's interesting that you say timing is everything in equity markets. Broadly speaking, of course, you're right. It would be great to time the market. But with the value investing philosophy, you know, our friend Mr. Buffett, but he says, don't time the market, basically, right? He says just buy good value and hold onto it and stop agonizing about whether or not you're getting a good deal because the deal will become good. Right?

And the list of people who actually do that is Warren Buffett. Everybody else tries to time the market, even if they talk about value.

Fair enough, fair enough. Okay. So, Doug, since we're talking about interrelationships, and here are the examples about inflation, right? The classic thing is limited supply of goods and services with too many dollars chasing them or too many yen or a peso or whatever, right? So that's classically how inflation occurs. Milton Friedman says it's a monetary phenomenon everywhere and always, right?

Everywhere and always.

Everywhere and always. That's his famous saying. And by the way, I think we just published one of them. Yeah, we have Milton Friedman's son coming on the show or has already been on the show. I think we published that one. Sorry, we're recording this a little bit in advance. And then we have Milton Friedman's grandson coming on the show, too. So we've got the whole lineage of the Friedman family. And of course, Milton Friedman is the famous economist. That just made too much sense for anybody. You know, he was brilliant. Obviously, he's got some great books. I highly encourage you to check out Milton Friedman's book, especially Free to Choose, which is excellent. I really like that. And Doug, I know you're a fan of his work, too.

What's amazing about Free to Choose, Because I read that book probably about every year or two, and what's amazing about Free to Choose is that basically every piece of nonsense that he writes about in that book hasn't changed, except that the numbers have gotten bigger.

Yeah, yeah.

Just about everything is exactly the same as it was when he wrote that book in 1980.

Yeah, that's really amazing. Okay, so interrelationships. So you mentioned on a recent episode that we recorded, you talked about the S and P and how all the stock market people will tell you, well, the S and P has done X amount of return. Right. And it depends, you know, what time period, obviously. Right. But say that number is 8% for the given time period they happen to pluck out of thin air.

Sure.

And during that same time, the economy has not grown at that same percentage. And you measure that by gdp, gross domestic product. And so if the GDP grows more slowly than the stock market and the S and P is the most widely, you know, sampled result or return on the stock market. Right. How can you have that? Is that the sign of a bubble right there? Is that the sign that its growth through leverage, it's growth through smoke and mirrors, it's growth through derivatives, it's growth through instruments that aren't part of the real economy. Because the gdp, you could even argue that that's completely bogus. Right. It's all manipulated, just like the unemployment rates and the inflation rate and everything else. But let's accept it as true. GDP is 3%, for example. And if the S and p grows at 8%, well, you can't have that divergence forever, can you?

The only way I can think of that you could maintain that divergence is if the equity markets were inflating because of an influx of foreign capital. And then when that foreign capital was brought out, it was not spent in the US it was the foreign capital goes into US markets and then goes out back to foreign countries. Otherwise, what we're talking about is gravity. And the one thing about gravity is that eventually it always wins.

Right?

10 times out of 10, 10 times.

Out of 10, Gravity wins. Yes, absolutely. So let's dive back in and hear more about the credit cycle.

And prices of constrained capital goods will also go higher because everything that's limited, we'll see higher demand and fixed supply, which means higher prices. Those higher prices will do well for those who are selling those things. For those who are working. The unemployment rate is very low. It's very hard to find new employees all across the world, even in Europe. Even if the unemployment rate in Europe is much higher, it's an average. So if you look at a city in Eastern Europe and in the Netherlands, the center of the Netherlands, in the center of the Netherlands, it's hard to find somebody to work. However, in that city in Eastern Europe, there is no work. So there is a disparity in statistical numbers. Be careful for that. So Europe is at its limits. So is the U.S. if we take another look at the chart from real gross domestic product and the potential gross domestic product, you can see here how the real gross domestic product usually fluctuates around the potential. However, every time it reaches the potential and even crosses a little bit the potential product, the consequence is a recession. Sooner or later, what happens when an economy operates at full capacity, prices increase, which forces the central bank to tighten its monetary policy by increasing interest rates to keep inflation stable. And you can see here that whenever the Fed started increasing in three interest rates, sooner or later there was a recession. So even Ray Dalio says that there are higher risks for a recession in the next few years. Higher interest rates means that the debt burden that has been accumulated in the growing part of the cycle will start to wait on people, on businesses, on governments. It will also increase costs. Limited supply of labor will also increase wages, which will put a weight eventually on earnings, will lower new investments, because suddenly the cost of capital is higher, which means that new investments have to reach higher profitability. In a saturated economy, that's again difficult. So where are we now in the business cycle? We are in the late part of the cycle. But what's the problem? The problem is always timing. You never know whether a recession will start two years ago today or in two, three years. And there are other projects that are coming online that are further stimulating the economy. We have seen the tax bill that is there to stimulate the economy to have higher earnings to companies that they will do more buybacks, invest more, supposedly invest more. There is not much to invest There is also now the new infrastructure project that is supposed to invest 200 billion to spur 1.5 billion trillion of infrastructure investments. As would Trump say, we build new roads, bridges, highways, railways and waterways all across our land and we will do it with American heart, American hands and American grit. He forgot about American debt and higher interest rates which will make all those projects much, much more expensive. And we have already seen the interest rates as the government, but there are.

Some big benefits to them.

Doug, the thing that I actually really like about the way that the speakers articulating this is that as the activity heats up and heats up and heats up, eventually to avoid there being a big ramp up in inflation, the central bank has to tighten interest rates. Now the interesting thing is to think about why hasn't there been inflation yet? I think that's the real reason why this economic expansion has gone on so long is because it hasn't been inflationary, not yet anyway. Because once the inflation comes in, when.

You say that, you just mean it hasn't been very inflationary according to the official rates of inflation. But everything else is debatable. But it's been a little bit inflationary for sure. Certainly asset values have gone through the roof. Look at the price of real estate.

Exactly. And that's really interesting. It hasn't been inflationary for commodities, but has been inflationary for assets. Gold has basically done nothing in about the last eight, nine years.

Well, lately it's doing a little bit.

Lately it's popped up. Yeah, but I think oil's pretty flat. It went up and then down and then it's gotten back up to flat. A lot of commodities are not that much more expensive than they were eight or nine years ago. Now, the exact why of all that, I don't know that I can really articulate from a basis of knowledge. I mean, I could make something up just like Peter Schiff or Harry Dent would, but I don't really know the answer. And I think that's a part of why this train's been rolling so long. But at some point, gravity is gravity. At some point there's going to be inflation and either prices are going to start escalating very rapidly or the Fed's going to have to put the squeeze on rates. And once rates go up, then that crimps off growth and then that's when you're going to start to see the cycle go down, is when you have to clamp down rate. You have to clamp down money, increase interest rates and then that increases the cost of capital and that makes it harder for people to repay their debts.

Yeah, very interesting. That's the cycle that happens and we are definitely late in the cycle. So folks, be careful. But look, you don't need to worry too much when you're following our plan because our stuff's not. But the other things that you might be doing out there behind our back, you know, doing speculative crazy things, be really, really careful. If there ever was a time to be careful, that time is now. Let's continue the video Deficits.

Because of all the stimulation, there is a higher supply of Treasuries which pushes interest rates higher in addition to the Fed rising interest rates. So it's a very, very tricky situation which we will see where it will end. It's impossible practically to predict, at least for common mortals. Nevertheless, we, we have to know we are in the late part of the cycle and we have already seen the first repercussions on asset prices. If you look at the 7 to 10 year Treasury ETF, it's down 11% since its June 2016 peak. And the bond bear market continues to decline. The yield to the 10 year treasury is approaching 3%, which means that it will start eventually. Put pressures also on stocks, because if you have an earnings yield yield on stocks of 4% and a 10 year treasury yielding 3%, suddenly the 10 year treasury looks much more attractive than stocks. Nevertheless, people expect much higher interest rates in the future. Therefore, they are not rushing into buying Treasuries because they expect even lower prices of Treasuries. However, at some point there will be risk rebalancing and people will start selling stocks to buy more of those Treasuries, especially as the interest rates increase.

So Doug, you must have a comment about that. There's been a lot of talk about the yield curve, the inversion in the yield curve, and investors are just always looking for yield. As the old saying goes, you know, money goes where it's treated best and that's essentially what the discussion is, right? It's always going to go where it can get the highest yield, the best treatment, the lowest risk. So any thoughts on his last comment there?

In a prior conversation, Jason, you and I talked about risk premiums and that's really what this comes down to is that the equity markets or stock market is significantly more volatile than bonds. Right? One advantage that you have, especially with government bonds, is you have a guaranteed return of capital. You've been fond of saying that as you get a little older, you get more concerned with return of your capital than return on your Capital. And when you get to the point where you can have a guaranteed rate of return that's starting to get really close to the speculative rate of return on equities, then a lot of people are going to start saying, maybe I'm going to do a little less speculating and a little more allocating toward trying to get a guaranteed rate of return. Because a big piece of what's driven equity prices so high is basically that the fact that the prices have gone up has resulted in more capital going into the equity markets from people trying to chase returns, especially because a lot of pension funds have a target rate of return of 8%, which sounds lame to you and me, but if your options are stocks and bonds and bonds are returning 3% and stocks vacillate between 25% and negative 12%, trying to time that mix gets really important because as they were saying, in the last 10 years, it's averaged like 2.5%. That's not really great. If you're a pension, pension fund, say you're 50, 50 stocks and bonds, you're averaging about 2.5%, 3%. Well, you can't even fund your payouts now, and you're going to start losing capital. And so I think that that risk rebalancing is going to get really important as far as what the mix between equities and debt looks like.

Okay, so what is that going to do to those pension fund investors? I guess I should say pension fund owners. Right. Well, they're investors as the fund, but the people who are owed the pensions. Right. What does that mean to all of them? I mean, we definitely. And, you know, we. We could do a whole show on this. We've done a little bit on it in the past, but there is a huge pension crisis in the entire world. Not just, not just Illinois, California, you know, not just the US but around the world. It is.

Wow.

The pension crisis. A lot of people are going to. They're in for a rude awakening in their retirement years.

I was going to say Illinois and California look like the Rothschild family compared to Europe.

Well, yeah, well, that's fair enough. In other words, what he means is the Rothschild family is so rich and Europe is a really big disaster. So.

Yeah, yeah. If you think American pensions are upside down, go take a look at the funding figures for some of the pensions over in, like, Greece and France and Ireland and all those places they have. They're so upside down. But what that ultimately means is that at some point the pension's going to run out of money. And they're going to have to adjust their payouts or if it's a public pension, they're going to have to increase their taxes. But of course there's only so much you can raise taxes before people leave the state or if you raise them enough, leave the country.

Yeah, people vote with their feet.

Exactly. And so what I fully expect to happen is that a lot of these pensions that many people have come to rely on, eventually they're going to start announcing a haircut in their payouts, say like a 5 or 10 or 15 or 20% reduction in payouts. And then people are going to get their picket signs and they're going to protest. And then instead of a 20% reduct haircut, it'll be dialed back to something like a 10% haircut for like five or 10 years. And then they'll have to do another 10% haircut because they just aren't able to generate the returns that they need to fund their payouts. And I think this is going to be a really good, really big deal because it's going to reduce the living standard of a lot of people in retirement age at exactly the time in their life when they're not suited to go out and increase their income. And I wish I knew a way to solve this, but I don't. So the best I can offer is helping people to not have it happen to them. Which is why we do investment real estate.

This is why we do what we do. And we're here to help you and make sure it doesn't happen to you. Okay, we got to wrap it up here soon, but let's play a little more of this and then we will wrap it up for today.

It's always difficult to time, but if you look from a broad perspective, long term perspective, you know what will happen and that's the most important thing for your portfolio. So to conclude this video, it seems that the correction has passed. Stocks are doing well again. However, the higher interest rates will put pressure on some competition components of the market, of businesses, of the economy that will then slowly put pressure on other components and then we will see a normal economic cycle and normal economic downturn unravel. So if you look smartly now, you will find those sectors, those companies that will be immediately put under pressure that, that the growth in the economy won't.

Help them, won't be, oh, stock investing.

Is so overcome complicated the higher interest rates and survive. So I will be looking at such companies to see, okay, which ones will be the first to fall and Then we'll look later how to protect ourselves in order to see which one will the last to fall. Also we'll look at investments that will work oppositely or will improve their earnings. As I said, the limited supply goods that will see higher increases in prices. So for example, look at what happened to Rio Tinto. Now in this part of the cycle, everybody's crazy about commodities and the stock just keeps going up. Just two years ago, nobody wanted Rio Tinto because everybody was afraid.

Rio Tinto, the mining company.

So it's very interesting how the market moves. What we have to be is smart in the long term. Don't take too much risk for limited returns. And that's the key to long term investing. That's the key to beating the market in the long term.

And the key to beating it all is to just simply buy income property. But he explained it really well, so I really enjoyed that video. Doug, your thoughts?

One of the things I was kind of thinking of that with your comment was that the thing that the equity market appeals to is people who feel a need to be able to show how smart they are by being able to understand and execute really complicated strategies. Because the best strategy you can do for real estate is you're but know how to be able to spot value and then just consistently buy value properties. And when they get overvalued, sell them and then redeploy your capital into good value properties. Because then when the inevitable recession comes, then what will happen is right, Your interest rates will creep up and then when the recession comes, they'll go down. So when the interest rates go down, just refinance all your properties at a lower rate and then just keep doing that exact same thing. Because it's as long as you have a tenant who's paying your rent and you're renting out to quality tenants and you're buying in decent areas, it's really pretty hard for you to screw it up that badly. If you just follow a very simple formula and do it consistently. It's almost impossible to shoot yourself in the foot.

Yeah, it really is. Or as Sarah would say, one of our other investment counselors, shoot yourself in the shoe. I love how she always takes famous old sayings and modifies them to her own unusual way. It's pretty entertaining, but absolutely, Doug, you know, usually scams, and I don't mean that they're outright scams, they may be what I call legalized scams. Hide the scam in complexity Income property investing is pretty darn simple. The laws and customs around it have been in existence for eons. I mean, you know, not exactly eons, but a long, long, long time. Right? And it's pretty simple. And we're here to help you with it all along the way. Go to Jason hartman.com and check out the properties we have there. Get in touch with Doug or one of our investment counselors and we will be happy to help you. And until the next episode, Happy Investing. We're here with you six days a week now. Got our special bonus every Saturday, our guided visualization to help you achieve prosperity through income, property. Happy investing, everyone.

Happy Investing.

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