1358: 2019 Year in Review, Real Estate Market in 2020 & Collapse of Brands

Once we did encounter some challenges because we are part of your network and because I have an investment counselor, I.

Always felt like I had somewhere to go for an answer. I always felt like I had somebody.

With more experience than me that I could lean on. And if Sarah didn't know the answer, she got the answer.

Welcome to the Creating wealth show with Jason Hartman. You're about to learn a new slant on investing, some exciting techniques and fresh new approaches to the world's most historically proven asset class that will enable you to create more wealth and freedom than you ever thought possible. Jason is a genuine, self made multimillionaire who's actually been there and done it. He's a successful investor, lender, developer, and entrepreneur who's owned properties in 11 states, had hundreds of tenants, and been involved in thousands of real estate transactions. This program will help you follow in Jason's footsteps on the road to your Financial Independence Day. You really can do it. And now, here's your host, Jason Hartman, with the complete solution for real estate investors.

Welcome to episode 1358. 1358. As I always say, it is an amazing time to be alive. And you know, a lot of people agree with that. In fact, my co host here today with me, Rabbi Evan Moffek. Rabbi, how are you?

I'm great, Jason. It's an amazing time to be alive.

It is, it is. So, call you Rabbi or Evan or how do they refer to you?

I like to say the only person that I require to call me Rabbi is my mom. But truthfully, no, people call me Evan or Rabbi Evan. I always felt it a little strange when people 70 or 80 years old called me Rabbi, but I let people call me what they want.

And you mean that because you're a young guy and. And it didn't seem right in the seniority chain. Right, Got it, got it, got it.

Exactly.

Well, hey, it has been a truly amazing decade. Today is New Year's Eve and we are about to close out another year, but also at the same time, another decade. And we are entering the2020s tomorrow. Our theme for Meet the Masters is 2020 Vision, and we will announce our Meet the Masters date and location real soon here. So stay tuned for that. But, you know, you posted an article in our content group from the Spectator that said we've just had the best decade in human history. Seriously, little of this made the news. But good news is no news. And you know, that's so true of the bias of the media. Bad news sells. If it bleeds, it leads. You rarely hear the Good news in the media. What were some of the justifications for saying we just finished the best decade in human history, really, with all this bad stuff going on, with all the problems we've got, was it really the best decade?

Well, life expectancy is up. Infant mortality is down. Poverty, extreme poverty has declined so substantially. I think this isn't the decade, but I think since the mid-1980s when you had We Are the World for starving children in Ethiopia, extreme poverty is down 90% since then. And a lot of that has happened over the last 10 years. The kind of technology and the kinds of innovations in farming and in medicine. It's just extraordinary. Yes. You know, you look at our politics and you look at the anger, it doesn't seem that way, but beneath the surface, I think people are going to look back at this period and say, what an extraordinary advance in human technology and in human quality of life. And even, you know, we talk a lot about one of your missions is to help save the middle class and to help the middle class. But in many ways there is a shrinking middle class, but a lot of people have gotten a lot richer.

Well, if I may on that point, that is a really interesting point. I think you're probably referencing that Reason magazine John Stossel interview I recently posted. I think you saw that, right?

Yes.

I think that was the editor of Reason magazine, if I'm not mistaken. Maybe we'll play a clip from that on a future episode. But she says, well, the reason the middle class is shrinking is because people are moving up. They're moving out of the middle class. Now, of course, this is a macro view. From that perspective, they're probably talking about the nation. So they're not talking about any particular state or city or there's different income classes. You can divide and, you know, peel that onion a lot of ways. Right. But that is true, and that is interesting. The middle class is disappearing, sadly, but much of it is because people are moving up into the upper classes, although some are certainly left behind, too. So, you know, it's a complicated, complicated discussion, but overall I do agree with that, and that is a very interesting point. Go ahead.

Yeah, all of that. I really think part of it is the technology. I mean, I was just thinking back 20 years ago. You remember the whole scare about the year 2000, what was going to happen Y2K? And, you know, that was a pretty optimistic time. Even though people were scared about Y2K, there was just this, you know, it was the roaring 90s. I mean, the tech bubble hadn't Burst yet the. There's a lot of optimism then. And then we go to 2010, 10 years ago, and there was a lot of pessimism, you know, more than anybody, how after the real estate market crash and so much foreclosure, people uncertain. And now I kind of think we're clearly more optimistic, but I'd say we're probably more in the middle of the optimism of 2000 and kind of the pessimism of 2010 right now. But I think we have a lot of reason to be optimistic.

Well, you know, you mentioned the year 2010, and so that was 10 years ago now, and it was immediately post financial crisis in the. Still in the Great Recession, essentially. And it was very hard for people to convince themselves to buy properties back then. But, boy, the clients we had who bought properties in 2010, they are sitting very pretty right now. So many of them are probably listening. And you have become very rich from those property purchases. So congratulations.

Well, you were working with them, Jason. What did it take? What was it a certain character trait? Was it just a willingness to take a risk? What kind of qualities did you see in the people that were willing to sort of take that leap then?

You know, on the face of. That's a great question, Evan. On the face of it, you'd have to say, well, you had to be very courageous. You had to have a lot of guts to buck the trend and kind of ignore the negativity and move forward with real estate deals. You had to be that contrarian thinker. But if you just approached it back then in the thick of all this terrible news, I mean, certainly true in 2009 and 2008 also right in the thick of all that terrible news that was out there in the marketplace. Every, every newspaper you'd pick up, every TV broadcast, everything on the radio, many podcasts, same thing, right? It was all negative, negative, negative, negative. And, you know, when you really dissect it, all you had to do is simply look at it from a commandment number five perspective, which is thou shalt not gamble. In other words, the property must make sense the day you buy it or you don't buy it. And the properties made a lot of sense then from a cash flow perspective, from a cash on cash return perspective. Now, granted, people were scared that another shoe was going to drop, and there was, you know, what's going to be the next thing? And forgive me, because I don't have the timing down on the chronology of how these things panned out. I'd have to look it up and do some research on it. But remember what was going on. Of course, Lehman Brothers collapsed and lots of mortgage companies collapsed. Foreclosures were going through the roof. As much as a country can declare bankruptcy, which they can't in the same way, I guess, but Iceland essentially declared bankruptcy, right? A country. You know, there was a lot of stuff out there about, you know, this isn't over, it's only going to get worse, blah, blah, blah. But if you just simply looked at it as though, you know, this is the projected rent on a property and this is the cost of owning it, and the cost is pretty much fixed, and all you got to do is get that rent, or even if you couldn't get that rent and maybe it was less than you expected, you still did pretty well. You had a big buffer there. And I kept saying to people, you know, if your property value continues to decline, if it gets cut in half, if the property is only worth half as much as it is the day you buy it one year later, if it goes down 50%, which is, you know, virtually impossible. Right? But if that happened, you'd still have a great investment here because you're not beholden to the idea of selling it. You're not a capital appreciation investor. You. You're a yield investor, you're a cash flow investor, and you're going to be okay. And by golly, they were. And guess what also happened? The properties went up in value. They went up significantly in value. But again, that's just the icing on the cake.

That's so great. And I guess you didn't mention this because this would have taken a kind of different mindset. I mean, what you just said was so clear, and it didn't rely on someone being able to predict the future. But if someone could have predicted the future, they probably could have thought, hey, the. There's a lot of foreclosures. People still need a place to live, so there's going to be more renters, and rents will eventually go up. And I think that's one of the things we've seen over this last decade, right? The number of renters.

Oh, the number, it has totally skyrocketed. In fact, some say there are now over 100 million renters in the country. In a country of 320 million people, 100 million are renting, which I think is great. I don't think that is anything bad. I think that's as it should be. I've said many times, I think the homeownership rate is way too high. That's just fine with me. You know, renting is, is great. There's nothing wrong with renting and I'm glad the stigma has left from that concept. Now, just because you rent the home in which you live doesn't mean you shouldn't own lots of properties. You rent to other people. Okay. Owning rental property is a fantastic deal as well. You know, right now this time of year, Evan, is everybody's out with a year in review, a decade in review, and they're also out with predictions of what's going to happen next year. And to that end, I'd like to just maybe switch gears for a moment and let's listen to a couple clips from someone we've had on the show many years ago and that's the chief economist for the national association of Realtors, Lawrence Yoon, who was interviewed recently at the nar, the Realtors Expo. He said a few interesting things. You know, a lot of people accuse him of, you know, just being a bull all the time on housing, which, you know, that's kind of his mission and his job. So you know, just understand that anything you get is a little bit skewed in that way and that's okay with me. I don't, you know, just know where it's coming from. Always consider the source. But let's dive in and listen to a little this.

Okay, excellent. The residential real estate market.

Well, thanks for inviting the 2019 residential real estate market. The first half of the year was slow, but we are really making up for it in the second half. Second half, much lower mortgage rates, that is reviving buyer interest. First time buyers are beginning to enter the market. So the second half of the year, measurably higher sales activity compared to the year before.

So what are the major trends?

The major trend is that overall sale as a euro as a whole is about same as last year. But home prices are still rising for seven consecutive years, rising I would say a little faster than the historical average, faster than people's income growth. And that's because we just don't have enough inventory. Lack of supply is pushing up prices a little too fast.

By the way, Evan, one of the comments on someone that was on our YouTube channel was commenting and talking with me about one of the videos and how we talked about how home price appreciation has dramatically outpaced incomes basically for the greater part of four decades and from 1977 to 2017, that for that huge multi decade period, in real dollars, in other words, adjusted for inflation in real dollars, constant dollars, Americans mostly haven't had A raise. Their income has not increased. But here's the problem and what Lawrence Yoon just mentioned. They talk about home price appreciation, outpacing incomes, but what they don't talk about is home mortgage payments in relation to income because very few people buy with cash. Who cares what the price of the house is? I care about the payment on the house. That's what I'm buying. And so that example that I commonly give at our live conferences about, you know, buying the house in 1972, and the median price was about $18,000, but the interest rate in the middle of 1972 was 7.37%. Okay, 7.37%. And it's been much lower lately. So the income versus mortgage payment ratio, although I don't have a chart in front of me on that, we should get back to you on that one. I wish we had a whole research department. You know what, that would be so great. Our show would be so awesome if we had a research department to chase all this stuff down. Right?

So much to keep track of.

Yeah, yeah, absolutely. But that ratio is not that out of whack. It's not as bad. It's not nearly as bad as the price to income ratio, which is very out of whack.

Well then do you think, because now, at least from what I've been reading, wages are finally going up. In fact, I think you read something in the Wall Street Journal that wages for blue collar workers actually rose at a higher percentage this year than white collar. So do you think then that that might portend an increase in interest rates? Because one of the things that allowed people who weren't getting raises to still buy homes is interest rates kept getting lower. Maybe now there can be a natural increase.

Yeah, not yet. I don't think the Fed is ready to tighten yet. There are some signs in the global economy that are not looking very positive. Of course, we've got the trade negotiation going on that is hugely significant. But you know, I was just watching a YouTube video this morning about one of the wonderful effects of global warming, okay. And that is that the Northwest Passage for shipping has opened up because the ice has melted. And that is a huge deal that is going to reduce prices of consumer goods even more so than they are now because now shipping doesn't all have to go through the Panama Canal, which is very expensive. So that's another benefit. There's all the, all of these things going on. Very, very significant things. A lot of them we never hear about, that we don't even realize isn't.

That the beauty of capitalism, because not one person can control all these different factors, the crowd ultimately decides and you're.

Talking about the actions of literally billions of people. And that's what makes economics what they call the dismal science because they say that economics was invented to make astrology look very accurate. So yeah, it's interesting. But anyway, the mortgage payment to income ratio, not nearly as bad as the house price to income ratio. Let's continue with a few more comments here on this interview.

So there's been a lot of activity on the national front. We had a trade war. The Fed lowered the interest rates as you mentioned, ballooning deficits overall. You know, the federal government has a lot of actions that has. They've affected the real estate market. How so?

Yeah, one has to always expect some external factors influencing real estate. And the trade war discussion has really harmed business confidence, not consumer confidence. Consumers are just looking at their pocketbook and they're saying, well, job creation, wages are rising, so I'm going to go out and spend. But the businesses need to plan out for the future years. And they are saying trade war. We are afraid of it. And they have held back some. But now it looks like there could be a trade agreement rather than a trade war with Major.

Stop calling it a war. It's a negotiation. Okay, he needs to listen to the podcast. Yeah, yeah, it's a trade negotiation. They only want to say trade war because they want to make Trump look like a war monger. And that's what the media does. And interestingly, we haven't entered any wars, you know, so yes, in peaceful time. They're all Twitter wars. They're pretty harmless.

Revive business spending. So we'll see how it plays out.

So what needs to happen from an economic policy perspective to make sure that we have a healthy real estate market?

I think we need to assure first that consumers are healthy. Let the consumers do what they need to do. And the business side, less uncertainty is better. And the government side, there is a room for continuing low interest rate policy because of low inflation. But the rising budget deficit said that could become worrying in the future. But so far market is not responding negatively to very high budget deficit.

And that's a good thing so far. What should we expect for 2020 2020.

I expect that homebuilders.

Here comes the predictions. Fasten your seatbelt.

Building more. We are in a housing shortage. Usually entrepreneurs respond to market incentives, which means that more inventory, more inventory means tamer home price appreciation. Good for potential buyers. And as buyers come in, we're going to get increase in unit sales. So bottom line on the residential is unit sales to rise roughly 3 to 5% in 2020 home prices. I hope it grows only around 3%.

Okay, so he's predicting moderate home price growth and more inventory. But of course what he doesn't tell you is what geographies and what price segments. That's the key. And two home builders have come out and formally said they are going to finally start focusing on the more affordable market in the homes that they build. But Evan, the last 10 years has been really tough for, for new home construction. Just the new homes that have been built over the last decade, much more expensive building to a higher price market. They just can't, or at least so far haven't been able to make the numbers work on building inexpensive starter homes, entry level homes. There's just hasn't been enough, enough profit margin in there to build them.

Maybe the decline in regulations, I mean that's been one of President Trump's sort of big economic contributions is just so many regulations, maybe that will allow home builders to build houses with less cost and hopefully they'll pass that on to the consumer.

And that may be true. And the head of hud, Ben Carson, who has been on the podcast here, he was a presidential candidate and Trump appointed him to head up HUD Housing and Urban Development. And he was on the show a few years ago. He, he really believes in kind of a free market approach where it's a complete 180 degree turn from the way the Obama administration looked at it. What they wanted to do is make government programs that forced building in certain segments and so forth. And what the Trump administration wants to do is just loosen up the regulations so that naturally developers will build more and that'll solve the shortage. And like I've said many times, Trump is our first real estate president. Love him, hate him, whatever, I get it. He says really crazy stuff and it makes us all pause. But as far as just the economy goes, just the economy, his administration's been pretty damn good for the economy. You just can't argue with that. Nobody can argue with that empirically.

Do you think that with the SALT tax, with capping the home mortgage interest deduction at 750, with doubling the standard deduction, with making it so you can't deduct more than 10,000 in property taxes.

And the salt means, that's the acronym for state and local taxes. Go ahead.

Do you think that home ownership in expensive markets like California, New York, even where I am In Chicago, do you think that fewer people will buy homes in these expensive markets? Will it hurt homeownership or real estate values in these kinds of places, or is that just sort of going to be a wash? People deal with it.

Well, first of all, Chicago's not that expensive, but la, New York, Boston, Miami, San Francisco, Seattle, on and on and on. You know, the others, Washington, D.C. whatever. Right. A whole bunch of them. Those markets are already seeing an exodus.

Yeah.

And arguably you can say it's the salt issue. I think that's part of it.

But.

But it's also just part of the fact that they're just overburdening and over taxing people and people are voting with their feet, as they should. It's just a much better quality of life to live in Florida versus New York. It's just not even a contest. You know, I love to visit New York. Going to the city is great. You know, going to get a drink and paying $22 for it, it just feels wonderful. It'll keep you from drinking very much. You know, it's an expensive evening. But you know those places, you can visit them, but you don't have to live in them. You can live in a state where there's no income taxes whatsoever, where the weather is nicer, it's not so crowded, it's not so hard to get by. And you won't lose that state and local tax issue because you won't spend more than $10,000 on it. And if you get a $750,000 mortgage in any of those places that are just more linear or hybrid markets versus the cyclical markets, you can get a really nice home with a $750,000 mortgage versus in New York. You can only get a closet.

Well, where I am in Chicago, I think you said Chicago is not that expensive. And that's true. Where I am, it's that the property taxes are crazy. And, you know, not having the 10,000, 10,000 limit.

I mean, the overall house price.

Oh, for sure. A member of my congregation just recently moved to Milwaukee and was able to get a house like three times as large as here. So a few years ago, you did an amazing interview with Meredith Whitney, State of the State.

She was great.

So looking to the next decade, do you think that thesis of people moving to cheaper states, do you think that's just going to continue to play out? I mean, she's saying this 10 years ago or five years ago. Do you think that thesis remains true for the next decade?

I think it remains more true. I Think it's going to accelerate as technology allows people to be more portable, more mobile and work remotely. Like I've said many times, geography is less meaningful than it's ever been in all human history. It still means something. Geography means something. It's just less meaningful than it's ever been at any time, ever in all human history. Okay? That's, that's all. It's less and less meaningful. And that means people are going to vote with their feet and they're going to go to the places that have a lower cost of living and a lower government burden, whether it be just regulation of any type or specifically taxation. Now, my home state of California, which I'm going to harken back to Reagan's quote, when he switched years ago from the Democratic Party, he was, you know, he was a lifelong Democrat. He was, Ronald Reagan was president of sag, the Screen Actors Guild. And you know, he was liberal. And he said, I did not leave the Democratic Party. The Democratic Party left me. That's what I say about California. I didn't leave California. California left me. Okay? And what I mean by that is that over time the regulatory burden and the tax burden just got so significant that, you know, millions of people in these types of places around the world just ask themselves, is this worth it? They're just doing the math in their head and eventually they get to the point where it's just not worth it. And so they leave. And that pace is only going to accelerate in the 2000s. We are going to see that pace accelerate even more. And so to our listeners, I would say be on the right side of that trend, not only with your own investments of where people are moving to when they vote with their feet, catch them when they get there by providing housing for them, but also for yourself. Maybe you can't move out of one of these places now. Maybe you think, well, that's not even in the cards for me. But you'd be surprised if you start planning and working toward it in three, five or seven years, it might be in the cards for you. Okay? So just keep it in your mind. Okay? Think about that.

Do you have any other big macro predictions for the next decade, Jason? I mean, we talked about the, still the state of the states. I mean, you've talked so much about self driving cars and those kind of technologies, but any other big sort of macro things for us to think about?

Yeah, I'm going to have a lot of those. And honestly I have been so busy, I haven't had time to really sort of consolidate my thoughts on predictions. So I don't want to call this a predictions podcast episode because I'm not ready because. But I do have, of course, quite a few thoughts on all these things. I think the economy is going to continue pretty strong for a while longer now. Of course, we're in moving into an election year, so a lot is up for grabs there, depending on how things go. Of course, we've got this impeachment thing hanging out there. I don't think that really matters. I don't think anything's going to come of it. But hey, I could be wrong, okay? You never know. You never know. So I. A lot of things, but technology is just amazing, all of us, and we are going to continue to benefit from that economically. I cannot believe how much inflation there is and how much deflation there is at the same time. It's really startling. I'll give you one example, and then I want to play a little more of this, and then we'll wrap it up. I have a ski trip coming up. I was asked to speak at a group in Aspen in late January. And I thought, you know, I haven't been skiing for a few years. Maybe I need some new garb. Maybe I need some new ski clothing, right? So what do I do? I've spent a fortune. Ski clothing is always very expensive. I spent a fortune on this stuff over the years. Well, I go online and I start looking at some gloves, maybe some new ski pants, maybe a. A new parka. It is so cheap. I cannot believe how cheap this stuff is now. You know, I used to easily spend 120 or $170 for a quality pair of ski gloves. Now, at least by the reviews and the specs, you can get great gloves for 25 bucks. Okay, ski pants, $37 used to be hundreds of dollars. And, you know, here's another part of that that I want to share. This is not necessarily a deflationary trend. It's a competitive marketplace trend. And it's what I'm calling the collapse of brands. You know, when my mom was here for Christmas, she needed a new pair of shoes. So we went to the mall on Christmas Eve, and it wasn't very busy at all, by the way, because people aren't shopping at the mall so much anymore. We went to the mall on Christmas Eve and I go to the Apple store to grab a new iPad, and she goes to Saks Fifth Avenue to look at shoes. So I'm finished first. I come into Saks, and there she is buying a pair of $700 shoes. And I am protesting, you know, just income, property.

Yeah.

Oh, look, she can afford it. It's no problem for her to afford it. But I'm just telling her that you don't need to spend money on designer stuff like this anymore. This has all become so flattened, the world of brands, it just ain't what it used to be. You don't need the brand anymore. You used to need the brand to get quality. And I won't deny that there is some difference in the brand, but the difference is nowhere near the amount of money charged. Okay, Her Manolo Blahnik, I just threw the shoebox away. I was thinking I should have kept it when I threw it in the trash the other day. Her Manolo Blahnik shoes for $700. You can go online to Zappos and get really good high quality shoes now for a lot less money. And of course she was arguing with me profusely. And I said, mom, you're using emotion to make a decision and you're trying to be rational in justifying your decision. But go right ahead. So one prediction is the continuing collapse of brands, the continued and accelerated migration into better cost of living states. Okay, let's get another clip from this and then we'll wrap it up.

Okay, Evan, so we're going to shift a little bit to commercial. One of the things, one of the big topics discussed at the Commercial Economic Issues and Trends forum was micro apartments. What are they and why this is interesting for you to talk about them.

Well, if one visualize what a one bedroom apartment looks like, well, chop it into three pieces and then you have a micro unit. And, and it's not for every city. But in a very expensive city like San Francisco, New York City, maybe Boston and Washington D.C. that there is a real housing affordability issue. People desire privacy, but trying to get that one bedroom is just too expensive. So to have a micro unit will make it easier for people to have that privacy. And also the entry point.

It's just ridiculous that anyone should have to do this in the first place. Have you seen, Evan, these micro apartments? I mean, I can't imagine. Yeah, it's cool that it's really efficient. And of course we saw that many years ago in Tokyo. That's where I think that trend kind of started. And you've got them in Hong Kong as well too now. I think any place where there's just super high real estate cost. But why should you have to sacrifice and live like that? It's just not that important to live in these super high cost of living places anymore. It used to be critical that you live there when you didn't have the communication technologies we do nowadays, but technology has disrupted that. Here's a little more on this.

The option is either live in the basement with mom or one can have their own more affordable options.

Nice. So what are some of the trends that you saw?

Anyway, we'll wrap that up for today. But Evan, any thoughts as we wrap it up?

I think one of the themes that I think I've learned from you and that I think is probably a good quality in income property investors, is a sense of optimism that we have to be able to get through the difficult times. But you have, in a sense to believe in capitalism, you have to be optimistic the future is going to get better. And I think one of the things we look back over this past decade and the optimists have won. I mean, if you started off, there was so much pessimism, but if you were optimistic, if you said, we can get through this and you were willing to act, you're doing great right now. So I think optimism, and as a rabbi, I mean, this is not really the focus of the show, but I think optimism as a human quality is extraordinarily important and it helps us get through difficult times. So I would just hope that as we go into this next decade, we kind of reaffirm that optimism. It's American. It's sort of part of the American culture that we've lost some of that. But let's embrace it again. Let's be optimistic about our future as both income property investors and as human beings.

Yeah, absolutely. It is an amazing time to be alive. It's an amazing time to be a real estate investor. And even if you think a recession is around the corner and, hey, a recession is coming, I just don't know exactly when. Nobody does, but it will be here eventually. Just buy properties that make sense the day you buy them. Follow commandment number five and you'll be in good shape. Just the property must make sense the day you buy it, and that will help you weather any storm. And ultimately income property investing is always a game of staying power. So if you can stay in the game, and the way you can do that is by buying correctly, buying properties that make sense from day one, you'll be in good shape.

And then we'll be talking about those people 10 years from now when we do another last decade show in 10 years, it'll be like episode 10,000 on.

The eve of 2030. Yeah, right. Right? Absolutely. Well, hey, Happy New Year, everybody. Thanks for listening. It's been another great year on the show. Thank you for your support and your business and we just love all our listeners and our clients. Go to jasonhartman.com for more. And Evan, thanks for helping me conclude and wrap up the year with this episode today. I appreciate it.

Thank you.

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