1538: The Coming Financial Crisis & Crisis by Design by John Truman Wolfe

Welcome to the Creating wealth show with Jason Hartman. You're about to learn a new slant on investing, some exciting techniques and fresh new approaches to the world's most historically proven asset class that will enable you to create more wealth and freedom than you ever thought possible. Jason is a genuine, self made multimillionaire who's actually been there and done it. He's a successful investor, lender, developer and entrepreneur who's owned properties in 11 states, had hundreds of tenants, and been involved in thousands of real estate transactions. This program will help you follow in Jason's footsteps on the road to your Financial Independence Day. You really can do it. And now, here's your host, Jason Hartman with the complete solution for real estate investors.

Welcome to episode 1538. 1538. As I was saying yesterday, dear listeners, we need more time together. We don't spend enough time together. There's just so much going on in the world that I don't get to share with you. And every morning as I am doing my reading and my research and I don't just do it in the morning, but I specifically do it in the morning as much as possible. There are just so many things I want to share with you and I don't get time. There's always a lag of things that we don't share. So, speaking of which, for those of you who have been so patiently and so anxiously awaiting the recordings of Meet the Masters, they have arrived. Check your email box. Today you got an email explaining how to get to them. They are beautifully organized videos, they are beautifully downloadable audio files and so you can be portable. You know, we don't have to do it well, but we like to do it well. Although looking back, I think the wait may not have been worth it. I think it'll be worth it to you, but I don't know if it was worth it to us because I know you've been asking about it. And for those of you who attended, as a thank you for your patience, we offered you a special discount on the empowered investor inner circle in that email. So if you didn't join at the time, we extended that discount because you waited so long for the recordings. And I know many of you who were not able to attend have asked about the recordings. We will make those available to you and they should be available next week. We're just working on the the page so you can get them. And there are four small recordings missing that will be uploaded, I believe tomorrow to the portal. And they are just the introductions for each day. So they're not a big deal, but they'll be there. And so thank you for waiting for those. We do have a lot to talk to you about. And by the way, meet the masters VIP ticket holders. We have your second VIP session this evening on Zoom. So we'll look forward to seeing you there. And you received an email and a text message about that with the link for this evening's meeting. Okay, so, big news. Big, big news, ladies and gentlemen, from our central bank, the Federal Reserve. You may have read about this today. It was in the Wall Street Journal. And it may not have seemed like a big deal, but it's a big deal. It's a big deal. Why is it a big deal? Well, you know that over the years I have taught you about the Phillips Curve, right? The Phillips Curve is, is that rather important thing that guides a lot of decisions in monetary policy. And of course, monetary policy is not to be confused with fiscal policy. Okay? So the difference, of course, is that monetary policy is what comes from the central bank and fiscal policy is what comes from, well, the government, but more specifically Congress, and even more specifically than that, the House Ways and Means Committee. So fiscal and monetary policy, they go hand in hand, but they also have their definite differences. And in the fiscal policy realm, the Fed has made a statement, and this is a big deal. In fact, Evan posted this in our internal content group, and it says the new statement approved Thursday said decisions to raise interest rates would be guided by shortfalls of employment from its maximum level. So what does that mean? Well, they have a target employment rate or unemployment rate, depending on how you look at it. Is the glass half full or is it half empty? Doesn't matter.

Right?

It's the same thing. You know, people talk about the vacancy rate when it comes to their properties, but they also talk about the occupancy rate. It's just the flip side of the other. The other item, obviously. Well, well, well, they have the target unemployment rate. And really, most economists would say that when the unemployment rate is around 3%, they would just consider that to be essentially zero unemployment. In other words, that is 4 full employment in their eyes. Because some folks just don't want a job and they're not going to get one no matter how much incentive you give them. Those darn slackers, you know, they want to sit on the couch and watch daytime TV and, and eat Cheetos and full employment. Right. You got to consider full employment at a certain rate. And usually they'll say maybe 3, 3.5% will be full employment. So just Consider it done. Everybody's working at that stage. And then of course, they have long said that the target inflation rate is how much? You know the answer because you listen to the show, that is 2%. And of course, that is by their numbers. And that is always understated. Always understated. So this goes on to say, in other words, the Fed has signaled that it wouldn't raise interest rates simply on the basis of a forecast, a forecast, in other words, a prediction, a projection, a view of the future. Let's make sure we notice that word on the basis. So it wouldn't raise interest rates simply on the basis, basis of a forecast that inflation will rise, but instead would wait to see evidence that inflation was at the central bank's 2% target. Why is this a big deal? Well, let me just tell you why. Because usually, well, first off, we need to understand, of course, there is a lag time in fiscal policy and monetary policy. And the Fed is attempting, the central planners at the Fed, they are attempting to steer the ship. Look at it like a giant cruise ship, or better yet, look at it like a giant oil tanker, a really big ship. Okay, maybe a container ship. I think an oil tanker. I think the biggest ship in the world. World's probably an oil tanker, but I'm not sure about that. Probably is anyway, a giant ship. Well, guess what happens with a giant ship. I, I bet most of you have never captained one of those, but maybe some of you have. And, but you can just know, even though you haven't had the experience personally, that a big ship, once it's underway, it takes an awfully long time to turn that sucker around. So you have to make decisions in advance. You have to forecast things and say, hey, there's an obstacle way ahead in the distance that we see on the radar. Maybe we can't even see it with the naked eye or we see it with the binoculars. Maybe it's not an obstacle. Maybe it's a weather, you know, a weather event, a storm or whatever. We better start turning the ship now because it takes a long time to change course in this big giant ship. And that's what the economy is. It's a big giant ship that you have to make a forecast in order to adjust it. But now the Fed is saying, we're not going to go by a forecast anymore. We're going to look at hard evidence that we're already there. So in other words, we're going to say, hey, we're already in the thick of the weather system. You know, we're already in the thick of the hurricane and you know, now we're going to start changing course, but we're already here and these waves are battering the ship. I don't know, folks, this is a big deal. So it basically signaled that the Fed intends to keep interest rates low, which I know what you're thinking, investors, you're thinking, well, that's good, there's not so much urgency. But guess what? Home sales were up about 25% last month. Inventory is like non existent. I went to one of the markets on our website today and I only saw one property.

I want more properties and you want more properties. What did I read you yesterday? A study that said home prices were up in one month. In one month, the month of July, they were up 4.3%. The day before, I shared with you about how lumber prices caused the average price of a new construction home to go up by over $14,000. This is what happens when you have these artificially low interest rates. So it's not really such a blessing. And now the Fed has said, look, we're not going to steer the ship in advance. We're going to wait till we're in the thick of it. And that means.

We aren't worried about inflation. That's what our rich uncle Jerome Powell is telling us. I don't know if that's very wise, folks. I don't think it's very prudent. But hey, I don't run the Fed, unfortunately, because if I did, interest rates would be significantly higher and the economy would be significantly more rational as, as our good friend George Gammon says. And I'm interviewing him for an episode tomorrow and you'll probably hear that episode next week. How to survive in an era of out of control central banks. And that's what we have. And this is another example. All right, take it for what it's worth. Okay, so our guest today will be talking about financial crisis ahead. And I don't really agree with all of this stuff, but I agree with some of it. So listen to him and we'll let him say his piece. And it's always interesting to listen to sometimes when I'm doing this show and I'm reporting on things and, and some articles from, for example, the website Zero Hedge. Many of you read Zero Hedge, I'm sure it's interesting to say, to say the least. I, I like their content. I think it's quite interesting. They model it after Fight Club, which is an excellent movie if you can get past the violence and the crudeness. It really is quite a meaningful movie. I think I've watched it two or three times now. And you know that's with Brad Pitt, of course, right? And it's in. That's an interesting movie. It teaches you a lot about finance and debt and the great reset that might be coming, the debt jubilee that might be coming. They had another way of trying to get there. It's interesting movie, but, hey, Tyler Durden, the quote unquote writer for Zero Edge, is a fight club character, as you may recall. If you've seen the movie or read the book, by the way, did you know that the rights to that book were sold for $10,000 and that was this hugely successful movie. Oh, boy, I bet that author is really regretting that decision to sell those rights so inexpensively, huh? But Zero Hedge and many others have been predicting the end of the world forever. And guess what? It hasn't happened. In fact, just the opposite has happened. People have made fortunes in the midst of Peter Schiff and Tyler Durden and Zero Hedge predicting the end of the world forever. And all the people getting ready for that have pretty much missed out. So you got to take all this, this stuff for what it's worth. So. And by the way, I'm going to invite Peter, Peter Schiff back on the show. It's been a long time since he's been on, so we will get Peter back on the show here very soon. Can't wait to hear what he's going to say. Wait, the world is coming to an end. Gold is going to be $5 million an ounce. Hey, if senile Joe Biden wins, he could be right. We'll see. You know, eventually he's going to be right. Eventually, all of these people are going to be right. The only question is how long will it take? But I do think they'll be right eventually. All right, without further ado, let's get to our guest. And as I always say, if you need us, reach out Jason hartman.com or in the US call us on the good old fashioned telephone at 1-800-hartman Here we go.

It's my pleasure to welcome John Truman Wolf. He is the creator and author of the award winning Tom McKenna Private Eye. He's a former senior credit officer for two California banks. He's editor and publisher of the Strategic Financial Intelligence Monthly newsletter and author of several books including the bestselling the Coming Financial A Look behind the Wizard's Curtain and Crisis by the Untold Story of the Global Financial coup and what you can do about it. John, welcome. How are you?

I'm great, thanks very much.

Good to have you. And where are you located?

I'm in the mountains north of Los Angeles, about an hour north of la in mountains in the Los Padres National Forest.

Fantastic. Well, I grew up in the Socialist Republic of California and.

I got out.

And moved to Florida for no income taxes. So what do you know?

So have a lot of my friends.

Yeah, you talk a lot about, you know, the derivatives bubble and I'm not sure I'm characterizing that the way you say it, but you talk about derivatives and we've discussed that on the show over the years. I love to call derivatives very simply the thing about the thing.

Very simpleton term. How big of a concern is this? I know the numbers are absolutely enormous. When you look at the size of the derivatives market and what will happen when this eventually starts to implode or does it ever have to implode? What are your thoughts?

Well, I think there's a statement that you mentioned earlier. All bubbles do break this bubble and these numbers are huge. They're mind numbing. $1.2 quadrillion worth of derivatives on the planet. The major New York banks have 227 trillion with a T dollars worth of derivatives. And there is a point where you go, well there's counterparty, one person wins, one person loses. And about 75% of the derivatives on the market are basically bets on the direction of interest rates.

What percentage is on interest rate bets?

About 75%. It varies.

Three quarters of the derivatives market is interest rate or oriented derivatives. Got it exactly correct.

And we can get into what the Fed may or may not do with interest rates. They've said they're going to keep them essentially at zero until 2022. Maybe they'll do that, maybe not, but sooner or later I think this thing will go awry. And it's all fine if everybody's financially healthy, but you have JP Morgan Chase has got over $50 trillion worth of derivatives exposure and the other big banks, New York Money center banks, B of A Citibank Wells, banks of that nature have got trillions and trillions of dollars worth. And if the interest rates, if when the interest rate bubble breaks and a bank can't honor its obligations, all you need is one incident like that. And I don't like to be the bearer of pessimistic news but if one of those big banks takes a huge derivative hit, I think we're looking at a financial crisis.

Jason, so do you think the powers that be, the central Banks and governments around the world would allow that to happen. I mean, it's kind of ridiculous that now. I actually kind of can't believe I'm saying this, but I think we can literally hang our hats on the fact that they're going to rescue us with more QE and fake money printing. And I mean, it's just a new world we live in. You know, I don't think that the public will tolerate any sort of, you know, serious pain, will they?

Well, it's a good question. I mean, the protection mechanism that the bank for International Settlements has put in place and for your listeners that aren't familiar with that bank and many people are not the bank for International Settlements I referred to as the godfather of the global financial mafia. This is the central bankers. Central bank.

Central bank, yeah, right.

It's in Basel, Switzerland. They basically call the shots. A couple of years ago they implemented a policy globally called bail in Policy. Balin policy says if a bank is failing, then that bank has the right to take depositors currency deposits and convert it to bank stock without any permission whatsoever.

It's kind of a Cyprus esque sort of thing, isn't it?

That's exactly what it is. And Cyprus was the test case for the BIS implementing this policy. They did it in Cyprus. There was a good deal of press from this little offshore bank which held the deposits of a lot of excavations, AGB characters. And that incident was the pilot for bail in policy around the world. There are now bail in policies mandated in Europe by the President of the European Central Bank. Canada implemented it. And there's actually a document, folks can go online and look at it. Written jointly by the FDIC and the bank of England that explains how bail and policy will work here.

And by the way, we should just give our listeners a little backdrop for that. John, back maybe what, eight, ten years ago, if you went to sleep and you were a Cypriot citizen and you woke up and checked your bank balance again, you would have less money. They literally just took your money.

It's exactly right. And that's what bail in policy can do. They took a certain percentage of the deposits and converted it to bank stock. Well, I mean, who wants a stock in a failing bank? Maybe somebody, but not the average Joe.

Especially when you didn't want to be a shareholder. You didn't agree to become a shareholder. You just were essentially forced. It's like, here's the gun to your head. Buy our stock with your deposit money.

Exactly right.

Okay, go ahead.

So the bia, the bank for International Settlements Implemented this policy because they saw what we were talking about, that the interest rate sensitive derivatives had gotten so huge that bail in policy basically protects the banks. If the derivative bubble breaks in a particular bank, that bank has the right now under BIS policy. And in the US the Dodd Frank bill legalized that in the United States they can come in and take a certain percent of your deposits.

Yeah, right. So that was really in the what, 2,300 or so pages of Dodd Frank. This extremely confusing. Well aren't they all confusing, Bill? That was stuck in there too, huh? No, nobody talk about that. Unbelievable. Yeah, so we've got Dodd Frank. So do you think that would be a amount over the 250,000 FDIC limit or any amount or.

Super good question. The memo that the FDIC and the bank of England jointly wrote does not mention FDIC insurance. There is online traffic where it appears that the FDIC insurance would not apply. But I've contacted the fdic, they're non committal on the subject. So I actually don't know what would happen. I think it would depend on how big the crisis became.

Yeah, and the FDIC certainly doesn't have anywhere near enough to cover a real crisis by any means. But my contention is that government would just fill the void with fiat money. So what should we do with this information? I mean for those people who have extra cash that's not in the stock market, it's not in real estate, which is where it should be. It should be an income property. I say what should they do? I mean what banks are? Do you go with the big banks or do you go with the most financially sound banks? The theory being the big banks are going to get bailed out even if they're not financially sound. But the banks aren't really as they're not as reckless as they were before the Great Recession. Things are better for the banks now. At least that's what people say.

Well again I think what puts the banks at risk is the amount of derivatives. The big banks. Now to answer your question, which is a really good one, is this bail in policy applies to banks with assets in excess of $50 billion. So I encourage folks if you've got money in one of the big money center banks, if that's the household budget money, okay, it's a few bucks. But open your major accounts in a regional bank, smaller regional bank, a bank with assets under 50 billion. Because as it stands now, bail in policy applies only to banks of 50 billion and larger.

Right. So the problem with that is that the small Banks may not be able to withstand a crisis, but at least you won't have the bail in risk. Right? So it's like you're damned if you do, damned if you don't, maybe, huh?

At least they're not going to come and take your deposits in the middle of the night without your permission.

Right, right. But they might fail. That's the thing. So then you have to get into really, really doing something Americans just aren't used to doing. At least not since the, you know, before, before or during the Great Depression is understanding how sound your bank is and then keeping track of it. Because that is a moving target.

It very definitely is. That's why I did hundreds of hours of research and wrote a book called the 99 strongest banks in America. Because after I wrote the bank and pointed this out, I got into tremendous amount of traffic going, okay, good, well where do I bank? So I just went through the balance sheets of the banks all across the United States and at least made recommendations of about 100 really sound banks with good loan to deposit ratios and healthy loan portfolios.

And that's a fantastic tool. I just wonder, don't we have to worry about it changing all the time? Right? We do.

We do indeed. The real estate market changes. I mean it's surprisingly healthy now given the current economic situation in the country. The real estate market continues to boom.

But you're saying, yeah, I know the market's booming, that's for sure. But you're kind of implying that the banks are really tied to real estate like they were the last time around. Is that why you're mentioning real estate?

No, I mean, I don't, I mean there are still so called mortgage backed securities nowhere near the amount that there were during the crisis of 2007.

And also to be fair to the banks and the mortgage industry, you know, they've been a lot more conservative this time around. I mean, I'm not saying they're perfect by any means, but there's a, at least there are some entities putting brakes on the system this time around. Whereas last time around nobody was putting brakes on the system. Everybody was incentivized to just put out more toxic loans.

Yeah, you're absolutely right. Although things have started edging in the direction of 2007, 2008. But you're right, there are a lot more regulations in place and I think banks, just for their own survival, have been more judicious in terms of the kinds of loans that they're making now.

I'm looking online now and I see the 27 best banks, but I don't see a 99 banks. I'm not sure how long ago this book was published. So that's another question. You said the book was called the 99 best banks.

I don't even remember the 27 bank. When I started doing the research and it took a fair amount of time. And as you noted in my bio, I'm a former senior credit officer for a couple banks here in the west coast. I wrote the 27 best banks and then I got a fair amount of traffic. Well, yeah, but what about my state? So I went back and I, and I basically updated it. So the 99, it should be up there on Amazon. I don't go look at it every day.

I don't see it. And the 27 bank book is four years old. How old is 99?

Two years.

Okay, so and how, how quickly do you think, I mean, do you really have to look at your bank like every year and evaluate their financial condition on an annual basis? That's just amazing. That's such a hassle.

It is a hassle. You have to know what you're looking for. I mean, the bank rating age. One of the reasons I wrote the book is that the bank rating agencies, and there are a couple of them, were giving five star ratings to banks that had loan to deposit ratios in excess of 100%. In other words, they not only lent out all the depositors money, but then themselves went and borrowed money and lent it out. And that's just not healthy. But these rating agencies go, this is a 5 star bank and not 5 stars in my heavens.

Yeah, and remember the Moody's ratings the last time around? Right? Yeah, exactly. Unbelievable. So you talk a lot about this being this or the last crisis, I guess being a crisis by design. My listeners are familiar with the concept of a false flag. What do you mean by that? And what's the point of designing a crisis?

Well, the truth is, my feeling is that crisis was designed to take down the US dollar. And if you look at the strength of the dollar and what has happened to it over the last few years, it has slowly declined to the point that it certainly still has its reserve currency status, but it's slipping. China and India now do business in their own currencies. The BRICS is set up that economic organization of Brazil, Russia, China, India and South Africa. And they're all doing business in their own currencies, which maybe 10 years ago this was unheard of. All international trade was done with the dollars. Not anymore.

Yeah, I know, there's inkling of that, but I'm not too in fear that the U.S. because the problem is the U.S. may be bad in all these ways, but compared to what I mean, are we supposed to think that Russia and Brazil are better off financially than we are?

Fair enough. And that's why the dollar still stands as it stands. But my point is, if you look at a graph of it, it's slipping. It does not have the strength that it had now. Does that mean you run from the dollar tomorrow? No, it does mean that the yuan is gaining strength. I mean, China is inhaling gold like there's no tomorrow. I mean, so is Russia, but China is. I just wrote a newsletter on the gold war between the US and China.

When I wrote the book originally, a friend of mine in Taiwan send to some people in Beijing and you know, and then she sent me an email. She said, you know, the government of China would like to talk to you about the solutions in the book. I thought it was a joke. I said, well, have them fly me over business class and put me up here. I been to Beijing a few times. She sends me an email back, they'll fly you wherever you want, however you want, put you up wherever you want. So I flew to Beijing. I spent a week there talking to people that had founded the PBoC, the People's bank of China, and also met with the president of China Gold, which is the largest gold mining consortium in China and probably around the world. This guy has 40,000 employees, Jason. He's buying up gold mines around the planet, like Pac man, everywhere the US, South America and so forth. So they're making a very strong run to, if not back, the rmb, the Chinese currency, with gold to make that currency stronger than the US dollar. So while that's not a crisis situation today, I think it's one that's coming.

I don't know. I hear that a lot. And I just respectfully have to disagree. I just think the US is going to maintain its hegemony for a long, long time. China in 10 years has a giant demographic problem. After Covid, nobody trusts China anymore. You know, those jobs are moving back to the US A lot of them. A lot of that manufacturing is moving back here. And they've got one aircraft carrier. We've got what, 12? It's just, I don't know, you know, and I don't think China's going to go to war with us either. As, you know, much as I hear those things, you know, you don't go to war with your customer, your biggest customer. And yeah, you know, the US is, it's a, the whole thing, the whole global economy is built on smoke and mirrors. It's absolutely impressive in a way that we got to this point. I mean, don't you think it's like the biggest show game ever? You know, it's a good point.

And your point and your points are well taken. And you know, I talked to the friends that have strong points of view as yours and they're basically like, you know, China is so far from us. It's true. But if you look at a graph, the growth in strength of the Chinese economy and particularly the rmb, the Chinese currency, is up now. Does that mean that the dollar is going to fall to nothing tomorrow? I think what's more dangerous, Jason, for the dollar is the fact that the Fed has thrown what, 4 or 5 trillion dollars into the economy out of thin air.

5.2, I believe is the latest number. It's insane.

I can't keep up with it.

Yeah, yeah, but you know, other, other central banks are printing too. I mean, you know, it's not like we're the only one and we just have this fantastic position. Reserve currency, the most debt in the world is owed to us and it's all denominated in US dollars, which makes the dollar stronger. The biggest military, the biggest economy, the fact that all the Chinese people want to bring their money here because, you know, we still got that Brinks truck reputation. But I tell you, if a bail in happens, we're going to lose. Okay. And people might feel safer keeping their money offshore. But I don't know, it's just a very complex mix of things. What I fear more though, is a move toward a digital currency that's a central bank and government sponsored digital currency that would cause us to lose spending, privacy and that would cause, you know, and it might be a move toward a world digital currency. And if that ever happens, it's just checkmate, you know, that there's no freedom whatsoever because you can't go to another jurisdiction to have any degree of privacy or, you know, change the system. So that's what I fear more is this world government concept. And.

And maybe it's probably not a world government per se, but a world monetary system that is stronger than the world monetary system we have now dictated from Basel. Any thoughts on that?

Well, one, you're absolutely right. Two, I've written on that subject at some length. Three, you may or may not be familiar with Christine Lagarde, who was at the time the head of the imf, she was in New York for a conference and some reporter asked her about that very. Asked her about digital currencies. And surprisingly, she said.

These are going to be good for the future. I think that's a real potential problem, that in some way they'll make the SDR, which is the IMF's currency, digital, or there'll be a global digital currency. And then, as you say, there is no national currency. There's nowhere to go. So I think that's something to be very concerned about. Digital cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin and friends are not going to go away. They're here to stay. And the question is, how are those going to be dealt with? China is developing a national digital currency. So is Russia. There has been peeps out of the Fed that they're going to do the same.

It's definitely coming. They'd be crazy not to do it. Number one, it makes them look modern, but number two, it gives them so much control over the population. It's like if you don't get the vaccine, you don't get your government digital money, you know, or you can't use your money, you know, that with China doing their social scoring, something like that could be. See, the difference is the us the people in the US won't tolerate as much of that. They'll. Yeah, they do it slowly. How do you boil a frog? Of course we're all getting boiled, but there's this kind of rugged individualism that just pervades the, you know, the, you know, don't tread on me, Gadsden flag mentality in the us. Thank God. That keeps the government somewhat at bay. You know, it's, it's lessening. But at least there's a move there in China. You know, look at what's happened in Hong Kong recently. I mean, that's just. China's getting pretty scary and there's going to be massive capital flight from China more and more with. With that kind of totalitarian crackdown that they're having. So wrap it up for us. Give out your website and tell people where they can get newsletter, you know, books, all the usual places, of course, but maybe your newsletter.

Yeah, the newsletter is strategicfinancialintelligence.com it's kind of a mouthful, but that's what it is. You can go to strategicfinancialintelligence.com and the newsletter is called Strategic Financial Intelligence. I write it monthly. In addition to that, I do a weekly radio show called the John Truman Wolf Financial Hour. And I take that, convert it to text and send a transcript, audio and written to the subscribers each week. And we have, you know, we interviewed various folks and that's the newsletter, strategicfinancialintelligence.com Excellent.

Well, John, thank you so much for joining us.

My pleasure. Thank you so much for having us. It was a good discussion.

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