1593: Landlord Pricing-Power, Rent Increases, Modern Wealth Building Formula by Ken Van Liew

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Welcome to episode 1593, 1593 and 3. Thank you listeners from 189 countries worldwide joining us today. And as the crazy real estate market continues, as we experience uncertainty in so many things, one thing is certain. The home is the center of the universe for people worldwide. The home has become more important than ever, possibly more important than ever in human history. I mean, really think about that for a moment. The home is where it's at. It's all about the home nowadays, isn't it? And guess what market is leading the nation in terms of the largest net in migration for the last two years? That is my new, well, not new anymore, I guess my home state. New as of about two and a half years ago, almost three years ago. Wow. I've been living here a while. And that is Florida. It is number one in the country for biggest in migration for the past two years. That's about 610 people every single day move to Florida. Okay, 610 people per day. And that number in total is about 223,000 people, but 610 people per day moving to the state. So like I've been saying for the last couple of years, Florida is the new Texas. And Texas was very good. And we put a lot of investors in Texas. We help them buy through our platform and experience great returns. I know I did because I was one of those investors and still have several Texas properties and they're great. So also, I don't want to forget this, but ask your investment counselor about our new upcoming webinar. That's not the one we're running this week, that is on Alabama, but we got a new webinar on a new team and a new market. It's actually everything old is new again, as they say. Right. It's not a totally new market because we have been in this market a few times throughout the years in my 16, 17 years of doing this now. And that is Charlotte, North Carolina, a beautiful city. I love Charlotte. I'm a big fan. If North Carolina had no state income tax, I would have seriously considered moving there. But it does have state income tax. So I really like it where there's no income tax. So I picked Florida. So anyway, we will have a webinar coming up on Charlotte for you. I believe next week we will get that out to you. So talk to your investment counselor about that. This week though, we've got Alabama, an updated Alabama webinar for you. And that is playing. We're doing that one tonight. I don't know if you'll hear this soon enough. So we're also doing it on Sunday. So go to jasonhartman.com sweethome like Sweet Home Alabama. Jasonhartman.com sweethome and you can check that out. I think that'll be great. Property prices up 6.7% making their fastest yearly growth rate since 2014. That's according to CoreLogic. On a month to month basis, values rose 1.1% for the month. And that was just from September versus August. We saw a 1.1% increase in housing prices. This is just reflecting a drastic shortage. And remember back in February I taught you about probably what was a new concept and that was the concept. It's not a new concept, but it might have been new to you. I hadn't talked about it on the show before, I think. And that is the idea of supply demand shock. Supply demand shock. And that is exactly what we're experiencing now in the price of these commodities that make up the ingredients of a home. Certainly lumber. We've talked about that a lot on the show. The lumber price increases. But all of those commodities that are the ingredients for house, pretty much all of them have experienced a fairly dramatic rise in prices due to this supply demand shock that I predicted back in February and in Covid years. February was like a lifetime ago, wasn't it? Okay, the big institutional builders, I've touched on this one before. But again, a lot of faith we're seeing in companies like Tricon, Residential Invitation Homes, American Homes for Rent, they are all outperforming the the S and P in terms of their share prices because investors believe that they are doing the right thing by trying to gobble up more suburban home inventory. And they have one of the most important things you can ever have as a business or as a landlord. And hey, landlording is A business, right? And here it is. You ready? This is one of the most important things you can ever have as a business or, or a landlord. You ready for it? It is.

Pricing power. Pricing power, that's what you want and that's what landlords have right now. And these institutional landlords are increasing their rents. They are seeing pricing power, they are experiencing the ability to increase rents because the demand is so high. And the market just says, look, provide us with more rental housing, we'll pay higher prices. And that's what people are doing. So very, very significant move. Now the expansion of rental housing has been very dramatic. So I'm looking at a chart right now and maybe I'll share this with you on one of our live events or zoom calls or something so you can see the visual. But I'll just explain it to you and this might end up on the YouTube channel, I don't know. But back in the prior peak of the market, that was the impetus toward the Great recession. Back in 2006 era, there were about 10.5 million single family homes as rental properties in the United States.

And now you've got over 16 million. And here's what's interesting. You know, when you look at these charts, these economics charts, most of them, when they go over, they will take the span of the recessions and they will mark them in a light gray. So you see where those recessions are now. It has been a steady upward trajectory in the number of rental housing units for single family homes in the US all through these times. It was a tiny blip. And this chart shows quarter by quarter because remember, that's how recessions are measured. A recession, the technical definition, 2/4 of declining, 2/2 of declining GDP, Gross Domestic Product. And there was one quarter, just one little quarter, where it was even, where the number of single family home rentals stayed even, it did not increase. But overall, looking at this chart, a steady upward trajectory. What does that mean to you? Well, it means a few things. Number one, it means that more and more people are attracted to the asset class. The most historically proven asset class in human history is income property. Been saying that for a decade and a half, easily if not longer. But it also shows you that there's more acceptance of this by the marketplace. Now you might think, well, Jason, come on, that's not very significant. I think it is because there are more people that want to rent single family homes than ever before. Usually it was considered, okay, you move out of your parents house when you're a young person and nowadays that usually means, like 35 or 40 years old, you move out. If you're a slacker, failure to launch, just like the movie, you move out. And then you move into, what, an apartment and maybe have a roommate, and then maybe get rid of the roommate, you're making a little more money. So you have your own apartment or you move into a single family home, but you move in with roommates. Well, now we're seeing more and more people that do not move out of that apartment to buy a house. They move out of the apartment to rent a house. This is a true cultural shift and a shift in the dynamics of the economy. It has never really been true before until recent years. So it's a significant trend. Mom and pop owners and individual investors own most of the country's 16 million rental homes. They are also raising rents, according to the Wall Street Journal, but not as aggressively as America's mega landlords, who use computer programs to match rents with demand and have their own investors to please because they're public many times and they have shareholders to please. And if not, and they're private, they still have shareholders. September single family rents, September climbed an average of 3.8% from a year earlier across 63 markets, regardless of the owner. And that's according to John Burns Consulting. John Burns has been on the show many times. So have many of his people. But listen to this, folks. You ready for this one? The end of this little Wall Street Journal article says, get this, it says of the 63 markets, the average rent increase was 3.8% year over year. But out of the 63 markets, none of the markets declined in price.

So every market saw an increase in rents. Every single market. Okay, now isn't that a lot different than the story you hear from the doom and gloomers, from the folks that were telling you the end of the world was coming? And the complete opposite happened. Be careful who you follow. Be careful who you listen to. It's always best to do what Ayn Rand would do. Use your own mind and your own reasoning. And by the way, here's a tangent alert for you, if you haven't done so already. You must read the book 1984 by George Orwell. And you must also read Fahrenheit 451 by Ray Bradbury and a movie recommendation. Now, this comes with a parental warning because I have interpreted this movie, which I did see in artsy theater a long time ago, but I watched it again starting last night. And this movie has adult content. So, you know, put your hands over Your kids ears if you're in the car. I'm not going to say anything that bad, but this movie is interesting because it's about two things and it's an alliteration. Ready? Here it is. Sexual socialism. Yep. What do you think about that? Sex and socialism. Yes, the 2s words, right? One good, the other bad. There you go. And the movie is Unbearable Lightness of Being. You may have seen this movie and it's online, I think on Amazon Prime. Maybe I'm watching it, I can't remember. But anyway, it's really about romance and love and of course, sex and socialism because it takes place in the 60s. It's set in the 60s and they are in the Czech Republic. Well, I was going to say the Czech Republic, but back then it was Czechoslovakia. And it shows the prelude to the Russian invasion, and then it shows the Russians kind of hanging around, doing their thing, kind of infiltrating in advance of the invasion. And then the tanks roll through the streets and they take over. And it is fascinating. Now, you might also like the sex part, but the socialism part is really fascinating too because it shows you these communist thugs, right? And socialism and communism are just a matter of degree separating the two. They're the same thing at the end of the day. So there you go, Bernie Sanders. You might call yourself a socialist, but you're really a communist. It's pretty much the same thing. As I've always said, communism is nothing more than socialism's big ugly brother. So watch that movie. It's really quite good. It's a bit of an artsy fartsy movie, but it's actually quite excellent. I'm not finished with it yet. When you rent it, you gotta finish it in 48 hours. So tonight, gotta finish that one because it'll expire and then I'll have to pay $2.99 again or something. Right? But that's. It's quite a good movie. And it really just shows you how that happens and how people are thinking about it before it happens. And how people in the socialist communist type of environment start ratting each other out and betraying their friends. What's really interesting about it is what you see today. It's so parallel to what we see today with these big disgusting tech companies like Alphabet, Google, you know, whatever, same deal, Fakebook, Twitter, Twitter, the biggest offender of them all, right? Jack Dorsey, AKA Charles Manson, lookalike. If you didn't see Jack Dorsey lately, look it up. I don't want to say Google it, because hey, bing, it okay, well, Microsoft is a big ugly tech company too, but I guess not as bad because they don't play in the same space as the others. But they're totally censoring us, right? Remember something, folks, you can't hear the dogs that don't bark. What does that mean in the current environment? Take for example the election and voter fraud, right? Everybody is saying, well, not everybody, but the less informed people are saying, well, there's no evidence of voter fraud. Well, there's no evidence because you don't see the evidence because you're getting your news from the sources that are censoring it. So it never gets to you. So you can't hear the dogs that don't bark.

If the dog doesn't bark, it doesn't mean something didn't happen. It just means that you never knew about it. Okay? So you got to really take a deeper dive. You've got to look at alternative media. You've got to check out some other stuff. And I'm not saying it'll make a difference and sway the election. I don't know. I would just like to have an honest election. That's my only point. Of course I would like the smaller government candidate to win over the socialist and the pseudo communist, right? But forget about what I want, okay? I just want a fair process. That's what's important, is to have our institution withstand the test of time, is that we've got to have process that people believe in and have confidence in and are willing to accept the results of. Because if we don't have that, the whole thing is at risk of crumbling. Could be fast, could be slow, but it's still at risk. So the book Recommendations, 1984 by George Orwell, that was written in, I believe, 1949 and very prescient in advance. And then Fahrenheit 451 isn't funny that both of these book titles have numbers in them. That's the temperature at which books burn at Fahrenheit 451. And social media companies, Google, they're doing the same thing to us nowadays with their censorship. And then of course, enjoy some Sex and Socialism with Unbearable Lightness of Being. It's a good movie. Got to finish it. Okay, so that's it. Let's get to our guest. We have a guest. We're going to talk about migration trends, New York City. And this guy, Ken Van Lew is an interesting guy because he has done some big, big projects. So back when half the country didn't hate Donald Trump and they didn't have Trump derangement syndrome. Remember, Trump was a guy people looked up to. I read his book the Art of the Deal when I was 24 years old and it really influenced my thinking. It made me think big. I mean, doing deals with skyscrapers and building these giant properties and these multi zillion dollar deals. Right. And so this guest that we have today, Ken, is one of those bigger thinkers that's done some big real estate projects. So I think you'll enjoy this interview. If you need us, reach out Jason hartman.com Of course, the webinar Jason hartman.com Sweet HomeAlabama. Just sweet home, but it'll remind you Sweet Home Alabama. Like the movie, like the song. It's a great song by the way, that's available to you. And of course, 1-800-hartman, if you're in the United States, you can call us right up on the good old telephone. All right, here we go with our guest.

It's my pleasure to welcome Ken Van Loo to the show. He is the author of the Modern Wealth Building Formula. And this book is about thinking big. It's, I'm going to call him, you know, and this used to be a positive thing. Now with half of you it's positive and half of you it's negative. I'm going to call him Donald Trump Jr.

Because he's all about developing high rise properties, big projects, thinking big, New York City, crazy stuff like this. So, Ken, welcome. How you doing?

Awesome, Jason, thank you so much. Yeah, we've done some work for Donald, but I'm just like everybody else, putting on one leg pants, one leg at a time.

Yeah, exactly. Good stuff. Well, explain to us at the core, if you would, Ken, what is the modern wealth building formula and how does that differ from the old fashioned wealth building formula? Maybe.

Yeah, sure, sure. It's literally a combination of extensive real estate experience, a little bit of hard school of hard knocks on the MBA side after a few master's degrees and a lot of personal development with guys like Tony Robbins and Jack Canfield and all that kind of good stuff. But starting out with $10 a week and after a six pack and washing my clothes was always a challenge for me. Thank God I had the meal plan. But after a six year plan, I went out on a journey and I created a formula that created modern wealth for me early on in age, before I was financially free and had the wherewithal to move it forward. And, and what I really found is like you'll hear the old cliche, it's about mindset. But when I started, I really didn't have any money. And I was fortunate to get a job building skyscrapers early on on the Waterfront. And in watching that, I always figured, well, you have to be born into the family. But around 1997, I decided to take a leap and it was after winning a site design award. How would I create modern wealth? So I always figured if Robert Allen could buy a house with no money down, I could build a skyscraper using other people's money and other people's experience. But through personal development and me being able to find, fund and facilitate large deals and to put together a system where people could use it, it really created a whole new modern wealth process which included integrity based influence mastery process mastery and sales mastery, which what I consider what makes it a modern wealth building formula.

Part of that formula, I guess if we call it the money part or the business part, the sort of direct part would be syndicating big deals, raising money while finding deals. Raising money for them and developing them, Right, Correct.

You know, whether it's a business, real estate, you need us, you know, you obviously need a reliable source to find things. It's easy to find deals. The key is finding profitable deals, being able to fund them. Because, you know, as most overachievers, you get started, you get your first deal, you get hungry, you want to do a couple more. There's always challenges with funding. So, you know, I believe in presentation. Presentation. Presentation leads to unlimited funding. And then there's a whole facilitation process to that all. You know, there's many cylinders firing at one shot as you're finding and funding deals you need to be able to execute. Especially when you're going to develop, you know, if you're buying, you know, large complexes, buy and hold, you know, there isn't as many moving ports of parts. Of course you have the value add component, but when you're developing real estate, during that whole finding and funding and facilitating, when you're getting into conceptual designs, et cetera, you really start to build that project on paper. And this is what the modern wealth building formula allows you to do. It allows you to really look at the entire spectrum, know where you're at, like in the lineup. I do some references to baseball and it gives you a great head start in any entrepreneurial spirit or really just helping people get to the next step.

Yeah, sure, sure. So you have a lot of. And maybe this is a little bit off topic, a little bit of a tangent for a moment, but I'd really, I Think our listeners would like to know your thoughts. Ken, you have a lot of experience with New York City, and in the times we're living in, you know, the tide has definitely turned on. Well, first off, business, unfriendly places that are very expensive and, you know, very intrusive government. New York, California, these types of places, there's a sea change going on. And then especially you add. And that's been going on for a couple of decades. Right. But they've always been able to sort of hold because they've got certainly a lot of desirable qualities, too. Right. But in times of civil unrest and pandemic, that has caused additional pressure. What are your thoughts about the real estate market, the commercial real estate market there, and just the municipal finances? Because as we see these migration trends, anyone who's thinking ahead has got to worry about the tax base.

You look at California, and its tax base is just eroding. People leaving San Francisco, L.A. new York City. You know, there are other places, too, but those are certainly the trophy kind of locations that people talk about. So what are your thoughts?

You know, it is a tough time, you know, and I, unfortunately, I'm going to the city tonight to visit my daughter. She lives on 170th Street. But, you know, about six months, things, things got turned upside down. You know, I had, you know, some major projects going on in New York City that literally stopped. They created a whole new essential services process. And it was very eerie to be able to look down Madison Avenue and not see one bus and one car. And that led to me really looking at how do I lead the industry through this? That's just the construction industry struggles, let alone a little bit of what you mentioned, the stuff that's been going on for years in the legislature and devaluing New York City real estate, which is disheartening, especially when things like this occur where there's been such an exodus. And it's a little scary. And I sit here and I hear a lot of mutual feelings because the surroundings of all my friends being in the metropolitan area and real estate are just absolutely killing it because people are leaving New York. But that leaves me, well, how can I help New York? It's a whole new vertical innovation. I mean, retail has been struggling for a while after the pandemic. To see places boarded up, you know, brings tears to your eyes. The commercial environment right now, you know, I'm working with a lot of individuals to see, like, you know, what if. And what would we have to do if, you know, we started looking at commercial, you know, conversions into residential, is it cost effective? You know, what's really going to happen next year? Because you know, more and more you're hearing companies that people just aren't going to go to work. So there's.

And when you say commercial conversions to residential, it's hard for me to think of what would apply to that in New York City. You mean office space to residential? Because it's certainly not going to be ground floor retail turning into residential?

No, exactly like the model really in New York, ground floors, you know, typically the retail. And then, you know, sometimes you'll see, you know, some multi floors of retail, which has always struggled. But essentially, you know, there's these just towers right now of empty office space. One of my friends runs a large financial institution. He has like 70,000 square feet, you know, 1500 employees are working home. What does a company like that do? And then what does a landlord do? Does he start going, wow, maybe I should convert my commercial building into residential?

You know, but you know, you know, Ken, I can't imagine that would work because first of all, yes, there is more demand for residential than there is for office, but still that demand is also declining from where it was before. And the expense of doing that conversion, it just doesn't seem like it could possibly be economical.

You're exactly right because, you know, sale rates in New York City are dropping like skyrocket where, you know, in discussing where you used to be able to sell things for 1800-2100 dollars a square foot and you have an existing building that you can convert for, you know, 100, you know, the numbers may still work, but you know, you're right 100%.

And the first conversion would be hotels to residential because they already have the bathrooms in them. You know, office to residential is a much heavier conversion cost. Right, but go ahead.

No, no, I think you're onto it. And as you know, it really turns into a conversation because along the lines today I'm like, you know, how do all these structures, could they be used for renewable energy in any, in any instance, could it be used for, you know, other things that could create, you know, environment. Can you, can you grow food in these places? I mean, you know, right now, I.

Mean that's, you got to design that from scratch. But the, you know, the high rise farming is a thing and that's really interesting, you know, for city use. But I can't imagine a conversion for that would work either, you know.

Well, you know, you're right. And the last thing that I have had the time to run numbers. I mean, you know, we're going to be in a situation where, you know, in 2008, when the city crashed, it was because, you know, the union just drove the numbers where none of the projects penciled out. I think there's going to be a, you know, just a massive adjustment and I'm not sure there's going to be any market, you know, for discounted real estate in New York. It's, you know, it's depends how big. It's kind of a crystal ball, to be honest with you.

Everything has a buyer at some price, right? Yes, but the problem is you have this floor set by construction cost and nobody's selling below construction cost or at least not much below construction costs. So the conversions just won't occur because the developers will never do it if it doesn't make sense, right?

That is correct.

It's a real tough cookie to.

See how this is going to roll out and what's going to happen. It's just a real question mark, isn't it?

Yeah. And I hope.

That it doesn't get more unrest. You know, it's just, you know, it's kind of silly. Like we need to, we really need to. One of the micro distinctions I made yesterday, you know, was, you know, it's no longer, you know, focusing 10% on the problem and 90% on solution. We gotta go like 1% on the problem and 99% on the solution, you know.

Yeah, right, right. You mentioned Madison Avenue. Do you think that, you know, the thing that it seems like it would be the decision maker on whether or not those retailers that have had their glass broken and their stores looted, you know, some of these are high end, beautiful, or maybe I should be saying Fifth Avenue actually. But, you know, whatever. I don't know New York that well, but Fifth Avenue is where the shopping is more. Right. And so it seems like it won't even be a decision of the retailer of whether or not they want to reopen. It's going to be a decision of their insurance provider and whether or not they can get insurance again. And I would imagine that if anybody's going to insure in these areas, they're just going to charge through the nose, right?

Yeah. The insurance business is definitely thriving right now. And that's another whole game. But yeah, I think you hit the nail on the head because the other market that's really getting hammered is the whole hospitality. And the biggest thing that I keep hearing is it's the jumpstart just to stock Some of these restaurants to get moving again, you gotta put down 150 grand just to get the liquor stocked up. So to kick these restaurants off again, the same thing's happening for these retail stores. And then the market, with people losing their jobs, isn't pushing them to open either. So the real decision makers are going to go, are these flagships cost effective? Which in most cases on Fifth Avenue they are. But there have been a lot of retail stores that you see are going under hand and foot. So it should be interesting, you know.

Yeah.

Like, what are we going to do with malls?

You know, that's the other thing that's, you know, that's. See, that didn't apply to New York City, but in the more suburban shopping mall market. I mean, Ken, I don't know, I'm not an expert in this and I haven't really had a lot of time to study it, but I just don't see a very effective conversion for shopping malls. I see how, you know, Amazon can buy the Sears big box in the mall and use it as distribution. You got a lot of parking for vans. You know, you got a big box there, you can turn that into a distribution center. But the rest of the mall, I mean, what are you going to turn that into? Office? Nah, it doesn't work that well. Residential? Nah, it doesn't work that well. I mean, I just don't know what works in there. And maybe I'm not seeing it or I haven't seen the conversion plans that would work. Certainly you can bulldoze it and use the land, but that's hugely expensive to just start from scratch, right?

Yeah. And some of the ideas that I originally had, you know.

You see some of the things they've done in China, you know, but, you know, some of those places there are also vacant. So whether you try to create some type of destination with a footprint that you already have, I don't think you'd ever hit the highest and best use. And it's not like those, you know, mall sites are going to go cheap, you know, but.

Well, they might go really cheap. We'll see.

Yeah, I mean, that's, you know, honestly, you know, in today's market, you know, I'm actually happy that I'm in a couple entitlement deals right now where.

Because it's slowing you down, right?

Well, it's slowing me down, but it's still positioning for nice value, you know, with markets that I think are still there, you know, but it's very select. Self Storage is doing real well. Industrial still, you know, killing it in this area and outside.

You know, that's interesting. You mentioned self storage. I'm glad you brought that up because I've looked at that asset class extensively. I have not done a self storage deal yet so far. I really just like housing. But I'd say after housing, self storage is my second favorite. And I like housing in the form of single family the most and then apartments and then mobile home parks. But I kind of wonder how self storage will fare ultimately. And here's what I mean by that. Just thought experiment with you for a moment. If we have millions of people moving from cities to suburbs now suddenly they've got a two car garage or maybe a three car garage, they've got a bigger home with lots of space, they can get their junk out of storage and now put their junk in their house again. Right. So like what happens to self storage? You know, I don't know, it's sort of hard for me to understand that one.

Yeah, you know, it's interesting because you know, I've studied and I've driven in a lot of like garages and tried to get out of the car and you know, realize like there's just not a lot of space and you know, people like creating shelves and you know, people accumulate a lot of stuff there. There is a multiplier that I found, you know, based on residential density that's, that's pretty accurate. I mean the biggest issue that I'm finding with self storage is that your competition, you know, in this one area that I found, you know, which is quite interesting, it's kind of like a little island in a very, a very rich area where it will absorb say 30 to 40,000 of typical storage. But what's marketable there is large storage where people can come and like put their five cars or their boat, you know, have a little mezzanine with the bar, hang out, they buy these, you know, for a few hundred thousand dollars, they allow you to lower your debt on the self storage. So. But the climate control and you know, and self storage is strong at least in the Jersey market, you know, and the Arizona markets. I've also looked.

Yeah, really interesting. Well, what else do you want people to know? Anything else you want to share from the book or you know, anything in general, Just share it with us. That may be questions I haven't asked you.

Yeah, you know, I think, you know, if you're, if you're interested in real estate or any type of business, you know, the modern wealth building formula really give you a whole new outlook on a different approach that works. You know, it enables you to, you know, find, fund and facilitate any type of business, any type of real estate. I've tested it and proven it with wholesaling, fixing and flipping, commercial buy and holds, high rise development, entitlement work. And it's just, you know, it gives you the motivation and the ideas that just you may not see. Gives you a new vision and change your vision, change your life.

Good stuff. Do you have a website you want to share with people? Ken?

I do. You know, I'm easy to find. Kenvanloo.com Go to Kenvanlou.com, you can click on Discover now. Give you some free goodies and reach out to me. Get in touch with me. I'd love to talk to you.

Excellent. Good stuff. Ken Van Lew, thanks for joining us.

Thank you, Jason. Thank you very much.

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