1597: Suburban Tsunami, 120% ROI, Surprise COVID Moving Trends Jenna Weinerman Updater

Welcome to the Creating wealth show with Jason Hartman. You're about to learn a new slant on investing, some exciting techniques and fresh new approaches to the world's most historically proven asset class that will enable you to create more wealth and freedom than you ever thought possible. Jason is a genuine, self made multimillionaire who's actually been there and done it. He's a successful investor, lender, developer and entrepreneur who's owned properties in 11 states, had hundreds of tenants and been involved in thousands of real estate transactions. This program will help you follow in Jason's footsteps on the road to your financial Independence Day. You really can do it. And now here's your host, Jason Hartman with the complete solution for real estate investors.

Welcome to episode 1597. 1597. Thank you for joining us today as we are going to get some inside information from not a real estate company, not a real estate data person. We're going to get some data from a real estate software company. And this data is interesting because it leads other data. It leads it by about two months, as you will hear. And we are going to hear from one of their people. And this is kind of insider stuff. I think you'll like it. And it really speaks to what I've been talking about for many months. And that is none other than the suburban tsunami.

That's right, the suburban tsunami. You heard it here first, folks, way back in February before anybody else was talking about it. And what's interesting about this company is they've got data about 60 days earlier than others have in the marketplace. So I think you like that. And you're going to see some interesting trends here in this discussion. This was a long interview, about an hour long. So we split it up into two parts today and tomorrow for you. I think you'll enjoy our guest. So she will be with us in a moment and she's got some really good insights for you. But I must tell you folks.

I guess it is now official that if you were to go to Fakebook and if you were to post the Lord's Prayer on Facebook, that would be deleted because it violates their policies and procedures, their community guidelines. So now the Lord's Prayer is outlawed on Fakebook. I mean, these big tech companies are so disgusting. It is beyond comprehension. It really is. It really is. It really is. And further, Naresh posted this article I thought was interesting and this is from rt and I gotta tell you, I had Rick Sanchez on the show. What was that last week? The week before. Really interesting guy. And he is an anchor for RT and they have some fantastic stories. Isn't it ironic that a company partly funded by the Russian government would actually have news that is more reasonable and balanced? I'm not saying fair and balanced. I want you to notice that did not say that more reasonable and balanced than these mainstream U.S. outlets. Now they're based in the U.S. okay, but I mean, they have offices all over the world, but they're partially funded by the Russian government. So in all news, unless it is about Russia, I think RT is actually a more credible source certainly than MSNBC or cnn. But they've got an article today and the academic elite is saying that working from home. You ready for this? Working from home makes people racist. Yep, that's what the academic elites have now.

I guess that'll be considered a racist thing. If you work from home, you must be a racist, right? Unbelievable. Where do they get this stuff? I mean, this is what happens at universities and in government. The academic elites, they come up with these absolutely nutty theories. They, you know, a friend of mine said it, this was maybe 30 years ago. I remember him saying this. We were riding our bikes by UCI, University of California, Irvine, which I used to live right down the street. I used to take classes at UCI. That's how I learned all about real estate development. You know, God forbid I wouldn't be doing some crazy liberal arts degree. We were riding our bikes and the sign that they have out there, that's, you know, one of those changeable signs that, you know, they change it daily or weekly or whatever. It had some crazy event on it and, you know, we were looking at it and my friend Mike turns to me as we're riding bikes and he says they think too much. And you know, that actually I think is a fairly reasonable description. You know, some of these people, they just, they actually think too much, as if that could be a bad thing. It is a bad thing sometimes because they just come up with these outlandish statements and theories that just don't make any sense. But how does that relate to real estate investing? Well, actually it relates quite a bit and I'm about to tell you why. Not because we are going to have a secession movement, not because society is split apart into the academic elites, the rest of us, between the people that don't participate in the real economy. That would include universities, university staff, mostly professors. I mean, there are normal people that work at universities that are clerical people or people that fix up the buildings. Those people are all fine and normal. It's the professors that are the nut jobs. And not all professors are nut jobs, by the way, but a lot of them are these crazy academic elites with these wacky ideas. But it's also the Wall street elites and the bankster elites and it's the government elites. So these groups of people, and there are others that I didn't mention, but mainly those big groups, those groups of people are totally detached from the real world, the real economy. Even though they're not all academics per se, they all live in some version of an ivory tower, right? Oh, well. Hey, Jason. Jason, what are you doing here? What are you saying? Jason, what are you saying? You know what, you forgot one major group. The media. Yes, the media. Don't forget that one. They all talk to the same people that believe their same beliefs. They, you know, preach their ideas in a one to many format. They don't get any feedback from the real world. They're completely insulated from the real world. It's just amazing. So how does it relate to real estate? Well, when we see the university government debt enslavement complex.

Like the military industrial complex, Right. It's a complex, right. It's this iron triangle of the debt wielding student loan companies and the government backed insurance that those student loans get. And the universities that are just taking advantage, they're just taking advantage of the tsunami of money. Like you're going to take advantage of the suburban tsunami by attending our Charlotte webinar tomorrow@jasonhartman.com Charlotte and by listening to our guest today that is going to talk about the suburban tsunami. Essentially that's what we'll be talking about. But how does it relate to real estate specifically what I'm saying? Well, as we see the university government debt enslavement complex under major pressure, maybe more pressure. Actually, I don't even think that's a maybe. I'm going to say more pressure than it's ever been on been under since really. It got its foothold in the 1970s. Why? Because that's when the government insurance of those student loans really became a thing. Okay. And that's when you saw the price of college tuition and college textbooks and college housing skyrocket. Here's the real estate connection. These college towns are experiencing massive vacancies. They are under tons of pressure. And I have a reference for this. It's not just my anecdotal observation, it's the elitist scumbags at the New York Times. Because I'm looking at a New York Times article right now and it's entitled as Occupancy Dwindles College dorms go beyond students. Real estate developers are seeking opportunities to buy student housing from scrapped universities and convert them into apartments for white collar workers. Now, I think this is a good idea, but guess what? I think they are way too early in the game to be buying. They're too early. You know, I'm not a market timer, but sometimes the market timing presents itself and it's pretty obvious that they're too early for this. Okay. Also remember, most of these, almost all of them, I don't even want to say most of them. You know, 95% of student housing is not necessarily high rise, but it's higher rise. So it's like mid rise type stuff, meaning above four stories. Some of it's maybe just four stories, but it's always high density. Always high density. And remember, in a Covid world and in a world of riots, you do not want density. You know, if you have civil unrest and you have viruses, density is the danger zone. So I think that there are some real flaws with this. But no question, I mean, and it's been a hard year for many apartments. Many of these apartment complexes have struggled with COVID and with civil unrest, depending on their location, if they're in downtown type areas. But it talks about one company, PEB Capital. Pebb. Pebb Capital and its partner, Triarch Real Estate bought a building for $58 million in 2016, blowing out interior walls and gut renovating it to convert it from dated dormitory into sleek furnished apartments. The investors nearly doubled their money. Now, yeah, that was in a time when you could do it right. There was this huge demand for that type of housing and selling the building for one point or 104 million. Okay. It now houses a mix of grad students and young professionals. But you know what they didn't tell you in that? They just told you what they bought the building for and what they sold it for. They didn't tell you what the improvements cost. Isn't that convenient? So they didn't really double their money. You know, maybe they spent $20 million on the rehab or 30 million. So, you know, they, they probably made some money. They probably made 20 million bucks on that deal after all their costs were done and so forth. Still, I'll take it. Hey, $20 million. Nothing to sneeze at. I'll take it. But yeah, it's really interesting, this trend and the collapse of the university government debt enslavement complex or the college government debt enslavement complex, whatever you want to call it. I call it both will really take a little bit of time to play out.

I think all these folks are a little too early and especially with the virus still being a very big deal. Mark, thank you for posting that in our group. Mark is one of our clients who's in there and it's really interesting. We'll have to see how that continues to play out. By the way, on today's livestream, which we will probably convert into a podcast. We're doing live streams every other Wednesday morning now as well on Facebook and YouTube. On today's we discussed a really interesting topic. Adam prepared a presentation. I think you'll like that. So we will probably just convert that into a podcast before we get to our guest. I do want to share with you a couple other stats real quickly because I think this is interesting. Lawrence Yoon was talking, the head of NAR and I mentioned this the other day. Lawrence Yoon, the chief economist for the national association of Realtors, was talking about, and I shared this with you the other day about how he said home prices are rising.

Much too fast.

When you hear that from the cheery leader for real estate who by the way, has been on the show before, but that was years back. We've got to get him back on the show. Then you really begin to wonder and you really begin to think, you know, maybe.

Maybe we have some cause for concern here, right? But not yet. Not in the type of properties that we recommend, not in these good suburban markets. And our guests will of course talk about that today. But it is something to pay attention to, no question about it. So the median price is now $313,500, okay? And that is up 12% from a year ago. A 12% increase.

Imagine. So just say, for argument's sake, right, not on the purchase, but just say you have a property and it's got a 90% loan to value ratio, right? That's not the way you structured the financing when you bought it. But maybe you put a HELOC on the property or whatever, right? Just call it 90:10 loan to value ratio. In other words, you've got 10% equity and you've got 90% debt on the property. And say you don't have any positive cash flow, it just breaks even and it appreciates 12% in one year. That means your return on investment, not including tax benefits, not including inflation induced debt destruction, not including any positive cash flow you might have received. Let's just say you don't have any, right? Would be 120% gross ROI, 120% return on investment. Like let that sink in for a moment, folks. And may I remind you of what I've been saying for so long. Income property is the most historically proven asset class in the entire world. Because a 1,120% annual return on investment ain't bad at all.

Cha Ching. Yeah, it's not bad at all. Okay, now one more stat, then we'll get to our guest. This is fdi, Foreign direct investment. Right? A country definitely measures its fdi. So North Korea has probably zero fdi. Nobody invests in North Korea. Maybe little Chinese money flows in there. Hardly any pathetic little economy. Right? But a country like the United States has massive amounts of foreign investment. Now, just looking at the real estate component of fdi, not the other components, just real estate.

The share of foreign investment in real estate in the United States that has come from just one place. South Korea. Okay, Not North Korea, of course South Korea. The booming South Korean economy where they make all kinds of great things. I mean, if you ever need an example of.

Socialism, communism versus capitalism, all you have to do is look at Korea and look at the north and compare it with the South. Which one's better?

Because we don't need to think about that for too long. Bernie Sanders fans, Joe Biden fans, what do you think? Oh, let me see. Small government capitalism, laissez faire capitalism versus communism and socialism like they have in the North. Which economy is better? Where do people have more liberty? Where is the citizen bigger and the government smaller? I think South Korea would easily win, and nobody could argue with that. Just from South Korea, they invested 8.6%.

Their share of foreign real estate investment in the US is 8.6%. But here's the amazing thing. That is up from 3.7% last year. It's more than double. So there is a proxy right there for the US Real estate market that is a very good indicator of what they believe is a great place to put their money. Okay, hey, let's get to our guest. And we're going to see you tomorrow, right? We're going to see you tomorrow. Say yes. Jason hartman.com Charlotte also, if you want to catch the replay of our Sweet Home Alabama webinar, that's jasonhartman.com sweethome. But you can join us tomorrow for the Charlotte Webinar or catch the replay of the Alabama Webinar. And you guys are buying properties like crazy through our platform. So we appreciate it. Thank you for your support, as Bartles and James would say. And now, now let's get to our guest and talk more about the suburban tsunami.

It's my pleasure to welcome Jenna Wienerman. She is with Updater. And they are an app that has a lot of moving data. People use it to plan their moves. So they generally have the early information maybe about 60 days before people actually move. So we're going to really dive into this topic of migration and talk about where people are going. If it's really happening, is it really what we think? I mean, for months I've been saying, even before it was happening, I was predicting that people would leave big cities. But is that really happening? Is it really true? And what kind of numbers are involved and which cities are involved and when they move, where are they going? So we're going to answer those questions and more today. Jenna, welcome. How are you?

Hi. Thanks for having me. I'm doing well. How are you today?

Great. It's good to have you. And you're coming to us from the Jersey Shore, right?

I am. I left New York City actually, due to the pandemic, and I'm just sort of temporarily. This is perfect. Temporarily living at the Jersey Shore.

Fantastic. And, you know, just maybe. Well, tell us what Updater is first and if you want to go to the next slide for that.

Sure. You got it. So, hi, everyone. Thanks so much for having me today. I represent Updater. I'm our VP of marketing. I've been with the company for seven years. And what we do is we. We offer an app to help people organize and complete all of their moving related tasks. And when you think about moving, there's a lot of things you need to do, from tackling your Internet setup to insurance to booking a moving company. It's really complicated and a big headache. We help people with that. And at this point in time, you know, what we're going to be talking about today? Are reviewing some striking migration patterns due to the COVID 19 pandemic. And we actually have insight into around 33% of all U.S. household moves. That's the number of homes that are actually leveraging our technology for a move. So we're going to talk about.

That's a big number for a survey to get one third of the market. That is huge. So we're going to have some good data here, folks.

Yes, absolutely. We actually took a random sampling of about 1 million moves to talk about from March through September 2020. And that's what we'll be analyzing today.

Okay, fantastic. And if you want to flip to the next slide, that'd be great. But you know, Jenna, since your story might mirror what we're talking about today. Do you want to just share quickly your personal story? Because you made that move yourself, so it's pretty fitting.

It is totally fitting. I'm happy to. So I am a New Yorker. I've been living in New York for 12 years. Update are our company. We're headquartered in New York. We also have a few offices around the country.

And when you say New York, you mean the city, right?

Yes. I am an Upper west side resident. Right. In Manhattan. I'm not. I'm maybe two blocks from Central Park. And one of the, I guess, triggers, if you will actually happen for me with Central park is I saw the hospitals being built in Central park and in March, at the time, in March, we didn't know what was happening. We didn't know what we know now today about the virus and the pandemic. All we knew was that it was airborne and it's killing people and it's really scary. And the doctors and nurses and the hospital and frontline workers in New York, they were doing everything they can, but as you know, our city was underwater and it was really scary. And New York is a city where, for me personally, I take the subway to work every day, as most people do. When you go to a grocery store, they're tiny and they're packed in and they're just like little neighborhood stores. And to be in a city where there's a virus that's really unknown and it can kill you, and to be running around the city, I mean, we were all wearing gloves at that time. It just felt really dangerous to be there when I was fortunate enough to have another place to go. So what I did at the end of March, I left New York and I just packed up a backpack and I moved here to the Jersey Shore, which is just a family home that we have here. And it was really sitting empty in the spring, and most people come here in the summertime, so it was really sitting empty. So I just moved in with my backpack, and I've been here ever since. And it's a really interesting time in New York. I have been able to go back once, and everyone was wearing a mask. Everyone was being safe. The restaurants, the businesses are reopening slowly and in a safe place, safe fashion. So I would feel safe going back at this point in time. But I really just enjoyed being here for the summer. So what's interesting about my story, and you're going to see some of this in the data today, is that I may have moved, but I didn't actually have A relocation event. Right. So there's a big difference between people on the move and being mobile versus actually relocating in the way that it was that.

You're stealing my thunder. Because that's one of the questions I. When I'm going to pick at your data that you're going to share. I was going to ask you about all the wealthy New Yorkers that just went to the Hamptons, for example, or Jersey. You know, they didn't really move in quotes. Right. And so are you still, you're still paying rent on your place in New York, right?

Absolutely, absolutely. I have a. I own my apartment, so I'm paying my mortgage. And they do not let you out of that?

Yeah, yeah. And you didn't even go into forbearance. I would think that would be an option you'd really want to consider for. For something like that.

Well, you know, my apartment is my home and I don't want to leave it. I don't want to lose it. I want to go back. I want to recontribute to the economy. But it did feel a little scary for a while. And simply because I was in a remote beach location, it was just really comfortable for me to be here for the summer. But not everybody. Actually, what we will see in the data today is not everybody was able to go to a beach. I feel beyond fortunate to be able to be in this position. But a lot of people, you'll see that New Yorkers actually dispersed across the country, which is really interesting. We'll look at that.

Good. Let's dig in. Let's dig in.

Let's do it.

Thanks for considering your personal story, though.

You're welcome. You're welcome. I'll keep you posted as I move back. Question number one. Right. It seems that people are moving like crazy during the pandemic. Is this true? There's been a lot of anecdotal evidence. The answer to that is yes and no. So what we're looking at here is macro level migration. As we talked about the difference between mobility versus actual relocations, yes, people were on the move 100%. But as it related to permanent relocations. What you see here on the right, this is actually a chart of the move volume that we saw, meaning every move is counted as one. And we're looking at total volume across the country compared to seasonality, expected levels. Moving is a seasonal business. People move when the kids are out of school. They move in the summer. It's also the summer real estate market is when things are hot. So we're looking at a seasonal trend here and you could see that most of this line chart is actually below the 0% line, which means that nationwide move volume did drop. We actually saw a 32% drop the week of March 16, which was totally in line with the first shelter in place orders. We saw it drop a little bit further as the shelter in place orders started to extend into April and into cities outside of New York. And typically this would be a time when volume rises and is leading up to the summer moving season. And it can often rise as high as 20%. Moving did pick up in July and August, but I would say that it it didn't fully recover. You see a big spike there around Labor Day, Labor Day weekend. That is not an anomaly. That's pretty normal. It's the end of the season and Labor Day moving weekend is a big moving weekend for many. I mean, it's when leases end on the 30th of the month. And it's generally like a big moving weekend because it's a holiday. So you gain an extra day. Sure.

And what we're talking about now is nationwide moves from anywhere to anywhere. We're not talking cities to suburbs, cities to rural or anything like that. We're just talking about the overall moving industry.

Correct.

Or moving activity, I should say.

Yeah. Move volume, moving activity. Great way to put it. Absolutely. So this is just overall volume throughout the course of this pandemic. The drops that you see, you saw that one in April that we talked about, that was when the shelter in place orders really started to kick in. You see another one in mid July, early August here. That was when their there were major spikes happening across the Midwest. So maybe next time I can overlay this onto Covid cases. But you would see the big drops actually happening around when Covid cases are taking place. Except for that last spike there, Labor Day weekend and the drop that comes right after it. Those events are actually just sort of balancing each other out. There was so much volume Labor Day weekend. Then after that it was a little slow for the first week of September. Yeah. So we did have an uncharacteristically long home sales season. You have seen real estate prices and bidding wars happening all across the country. And just in the last few weeks, it's really starting to cool off as inventory slowing down. Work from home is continuing. And work from home, we'll talk a little bit about. This really can mean work from anywhere right now. And that's what I'm doing is my story. And that's what a lot of people around the world are around the world and around the country are doing as they're starting to realize. I can work from anywhere. Why should I really stay here? What do I want from my life?

Jenna, about that is that, you know, the technology's been around for years to do that. It's not like it's new tech, you know, it's just that everybody has adopted it and accepted it. And, you know, I think there are a lot of good things coming out of the COVID crisis, and one of them is that it has forced people to adopt things that are, you know, just more efficient, more convenient, better for the environment. Just better. You don't need to have all these in person things. I kind of miss in person meetings. It's like, tell me about any conference on any subject. I'll go just because I want to see some people again.

Right, I know. Are you getting a little zoom fatigue as well?

Oh, definitely, definitely. And I'm. And I've definitely got Covid fatigue. I mean, I, I think a lot of the world has got that where they're feeling somewhat scammed as to the intensity of this crisis. But that's maybe another topic, right?

Absolutely. So to your point, right, work from home is continuing. More companies are adopting it. There have been a number of tech companies who've come out and said, we're going to continue work from home permanently. Some of them have extended it into summer 2021, et cetera. So we'll continue to see that trend on the rise. And we're also in a world of gig economy where a lot of people are working from home and freelancing is becoming more and more popular as well, which is from home. So we're going to see some spikes in areas that we may have not seen before, and we'll talk about some of those today. Besides the drop in national move volume, what else did we see? These are just three additional national trends that I wanted to share with you. What you're looking at here at the top is the distance that someone moved. And again, this is fully national. So. So most moves are in fact local moves. And what you see in the bar chart here, this is the breakdown of how many people moved 0 to 10 miles, 10 to 100 or 100 plus in 2020 during the pandemic months. And the hundred plus mile moves last year accounted for 28% of the total this year, 23%. So there was a national drop in people moving over 100 miles, which is, which is interesting. The biggest increase in gains were in the 10 to 100 mile category.

Yeah. Interesting. And by the way, Jenna, some people will be listening to audio only, so I just want to kind of help them understand what we're looking at a little more. If they're, if they don't, if they're not watching on YouTube and looking at the visuals. So basically what we're looking at here, folks, is moves from 0 to 10 miles make up about 52% of the moves in 2020 and 10 to 100 miles make up about 24% of the moves. And over 100 miles, like Jenna said, 23% roughly. And then the people, I guess, are they moving to something else they own or something that they're renting? And 78% of people are moving to something they own that's moving to.

That's right.

And then 21%, roughly. These are, are rounding. Moving to another rental. So that's interesting. And what I take from this is that the hundred mile plus moves, those were corporate relocations, probably a lot of them to another office or moving for another job in general. Right. And so that's why that's. I guess you said that's unchanged or it's down.

It's actually slightly down compared to last year. And the 10 to 100 mile category is slightly up. And just to put it into perspective, Perspective, our average move across the country is 11 miles. And that's a, that's a very local move. Right. If you think about is it 11.

Miles this year or always historically?

That's a great question. I need to check with my data team on that one.

Okay. But the answer is, you know, 11 miles can get you out of San Francisco or out of New York or out of downtown la. You don't always need to move really far to get out of a mass transit area. An elevator situation, which are the two danger spots for Covid, or a civil unrest situation with the riots and such.

Yeah.

Okay, let's move on.

Which is a great point about civil unrest. We have this last stat here on this slide, which is the question of why did mobility spike? Why are people moving during this time period? And some of these answers here are working from home, a change in care responsibilities, meaning you're caring for someone during COVID that you might have. Have not anticipated. Caring for. Mortgage affordability. This is something you're all really familiar with is the fact that the mortgage is historically low rates right now, and it's more affordable than ever to buy a home. Although down payments are more expensive because the home prices have risen. But the Monthly payments are more affordable. It's making people want to own. And then, of course, as you mentioned, safety concerns. We've had a lot of social unrest in cities this year and safety concerns related to Covid. So. So all of these influences are coming together to really influence where people are going in this country.

Absolutely.

Okay, so we have another question here. Some are hypothesizing that people are leaving the cities, but what does the data say? You know, there's a lot of anecdotal evidence moving, companies coming out saying we're busier than ever. You know, a lot of local coffee shops saying more people moved in than we've ever seen in small towns. So there's a lot of anecdotal evidence here. But let's talk about what the data says. So we actually took a look, just to answer this question at a really high level for you, is we took a look at the top five cities by population. Those cities are New York, Los Angeles, Chicago, Dallas, and Houston. And we analyzed, did those cities experience a net gain or a net loss during this time period? And what's interesting is New York, as the number one city in the country in terms of population, also experienced one of the largest losses as it relates to raw volume of moves and people leaving the city. We're not shocked by that. The anecdotal evidence is backed up by the data. Now we have it right in front of us. So out of the top five cities.

So New York lost 11,700 people. And these were permanent moves. But what isn't counted is the people like you and all the rich folks who are hanging out in the Hamptons. Those are not counted in these numbers.

Correct.

And what we don't know yet, Jenna, is a lot of those people may turn into permanent moves when they realize how much they like it outside of the city.

That's right.

If the city doesn't reopen and you can't go to a Broadway show, if you can't go to all the great restaurants, if you can't experience the whole point of being in a city, then what's the point? Right.

It's a really great question. And just to clarify one point here, there were hundreds of thousands of moves into and out of New York during this time period.

Right.

This is the strongest.

Is a net migration.

That's right, exactly. So we're looking at some pretty big numbers out of New York City. We're looking at losses from LA and Chicago, and out of the top five, rounding it out, we have Dallas and Houston in terms of population size. Those cities, both in Texas, experienced a gain during the pandemic. And we'll talk more about what's happening in Texas. What we actually did was it's a little unfair to talk about net gains and loss as it relates to overall move volume because some cities are bigger than others. We actually indexed this and took a look at the net gain relative to each city's population. What you see here on this list, and I'll read this out for everyone just listening here, is we have a top list of metropolitan areas that ranked as the top 10 biggest gain during the pandemic relative to their population size. So relative to its population size, our number one inbound metropolitan area was Greenville, North Carolina, followed by Tallahassee, Florida, Las Vegas, Nevada, Denver, and Spokane, Washington. And those round out the top five here. And it's just really interesting when you look at the map, you're looking at a lot of warm destinations in the Southeast here that gain some new residents. And we're looking at some cities that you're not used to seeing on this list, like a Spokane, a Greenville or a Reno, Nevada. You typically wouldn't see their names pop up, but relative to their overall population size, they received an influx. And that's worth calling out.

Right? Right. And that's really interesting because that gives you kind of a, like a per capita growth rate, which is very interesting. And none of this surprises me too terribly much. I used to own property in Greenville. That's a charming little town. Tallahassee, I can see Florida is so business friendly. Las Vegas is picking up all the California moves.

But Las Vegas, I lived in Las Vegas for a year and a half. I didn't like that city much. It really is three cities in one. That's the Vegas is a very unusual circumstance. It's what everybody thinks is one city, it's the Strip. And then the second one is the slummy parts, which is a huge swath of Las Vegas, unfortunately. And then the nice suburban parts like Summerlin and Henderson, where all the Californians are moving. So it's a very mixed bag. But I'm not surprised. All of these are good places. Wilmington is a charming place. Raleigh is nice. Spokane, Denver, Phoenix, I lived there for six years. So all of these are good quality of life places. I would say maybe except Las Vegas. Except that. That just picks up the Californians because it's an easy move and it's decent quality of life if you're in those suburbs. So, yeah, that's not surprising to me.

Yeah, I mean, the Big notable here for me on this list is three of the top ten are in North Carolina and North Carolina. We've talked to some Charlotte media recently to tell them what's going on in their market. These markets are hot. Charlotte, Raleigh, they're great places to live. I even have friends in New York who have moved there recently. Not surprising to see those on the list, but just worth calling out.

Well, you know, the nickname for Charlotte, North Carolina, where we've done, you know, hundreds of transactions over the years, and my real estate company is, is Halfback City. Because people leave New York, they go to Florida, decide they don't like Florida, so they go halfway back. And so. So, so Charlotte has the distinction of being called Halfback City.

So I love that. I've unfortunately only been to Charlotte once, but I had the most, like, charming, fun weekend when I was there and absolutely loved it. Great place. Okay, so that was relative to the population net gain overall. This is not going to surprise you. This is based on total inbound moves. This is raw moves we're talking about here. You're going to see your biggest cities on a list here. So what we're looking at is net gain, cities that had a net gain overall during the pandemic. In terms of raw number of moves, our top five are Washington, D.C. baltimore, and again, we're looking at metropolitan areas. So we're talking about D.C. and Baltimore, Dallas, that would include Fort Worth, et cetera, Los Angeles, Orange County, New York City and Houston. So D.C. dallas, Louisiana, New York and Houston were our top five. And three I've bolded here, just worth mentioning, is looking at the percent growth year over year. Dallas, we're talking about 38.5% growth. San Francisco, we did see people moving to San Francisco during this time.

That's the shocking one to me. I can't believe it. In Chicago, too. But you're talking about the msa, right? So the San Francisco MSA probably includes all of Silicon Valley and all those suburban areas.

Right, the East Bay. Absolutely. And of course, you're going to have to account for the fact that people are moving in and out of cities regardless. Like most moves, as we talked about earlier, are local moves. So you're going to see San Francisco zip codes be the destination zip codes on some of these address pairs. Right. So it's not shocking to see your top MSAs be your top cities here. But I do want to point out that there was growth in Dallas, San Fran, Denver, year over year.

Folks, what you're seeing right now or hearing right now if you're only hearing it, is that you really can never just take data at face value. You have to think it through and think what's really happening here. For example, Los Angeles, that msa, you know, includes Long beach and Orange County. Right. And you know, Santa Ana is the county seat for Orange County. Right, right. So people aren't moving into downtown la, I would imagine. Right. But they are moving to the suburban places. So they might leave the higher density area of la, like they're leaving New York and they go to New Jersey or the Hamptons. And so then they're going to Orange county or, or Long beach or something to live in a more suburban environment. So that doesn't surprise me. And then when you look at Washington, that one's interesting. You know, Washington, even though it's a, you know, definitely a city, it's a low rise city. So, you know, you don't see skyscrapers in Washington D.C. and you do have the government there, obviously. And whenever there's a lot of stimulus. There's something I've been teaching my listeners about what's called the Cantillion effect, based on this economist Richard Cantillian, which is the idea of the people closest to the money get the richest. And so whenever there's government stimulus and handouts, everybody runs to Washington D.C. like they did during the Great Recession, to go and get their piece of it and to lobby the government for it. And so, yeah, you know, if you really think this through, this is not that surprising. So.

Yeah, exactly, exactly. Okay, so let's talk about net loss. Right, so the same way we looked at net loss, relative net gain relative to population, we're now looking at net loss relative to population. So these are small, potentially or large cities. They're MSAs that lost more people than they gained and the biggest losses relative to their population. Three of these top 10 are located in Texas. Number one on the list being Odessa, Texas. I know that Texas, particularly in Odessa, there was a lot of COVID cases this year. The city was hit pretty hard. So I'm not surprised to see that topping the list. I'm also not surprised to see San Francisco on our list here. So obviously more people left San Fran than left Odessa because of the population. But relative to the population, you have San Francisco as your number two city on the outbound MSA list relative to its population, even higher than New York. So New York might have had raw number of outbound more than San Fran, but relative to the overall metro area, San Fran ranks number two on the list.

Has a much higher population. So the list here is Odessa, number one, San Francisco, number two. Boston, number three. New York is four, Detroit is five. Madison, Wisconsin, a six, Waco, seven, El Paso, eight. And part of that might be the crackdown in immigration with El Paso, I would imagine. So that's, again, an. Kind of an outlier. You really have to think through Miami not too far from me, that's number nine, and Provo, Utah, number 10. Now, that one actually surprised me. Provo is a really pleasant place to live. I don't know.

Yeah, there's some. There are some, you know, funky trends happening in Utah. A lot of people are moving to Salt Lake City right now. And, you know, there's also some hypothesis that tech workers are moving to Park City and wanting to be in some of these mountains, towns. The data doesn't totally back that up. It does back it up for certain markets, but Provo is one we didn't dive too deep into.

Yeah. And that goes to the quality of life area concept. If you're moving from Salt Lake to Park City. Right. Because you don't have to be in Salt Lake City, but Park City, you know, is a beautiful area. Right. So it's a. Yeah. Different concept. Okay.

Yeah, very interesting. And then, of course, we have net loss overall. Like we talked about. This is just raw numbers. And you saw D.C. on the net gain list. You also saw it on the net loss list because it's one of their largest cities. And like we said, most of the moves happening are local moves. So we're looking at, you know, Dallas, San Francisco, and Denver being some of the largest cities on this list for outbound as well.

Okay, let me. Let me make sure I'm reading your chart correctly.

Okay.

You have Washington, D.C. baltimore is number one, and it says plus 20%. And I'm rounding, by the way, so 20% year over year. But the title of the chart is top 10 outbound MSAs.

Right.

So does that.

Up 20%?

That's right. That's exactly right. So outbound moving in Washington, D.C. is up 20%. It's also possible at the same time for inbound moving to be up 20% year over year, because that just means that more people moved into or out of of Washington, D.C. so overall, that's sort of a relative number two overall move volume.

Let me just remind everybody. Or maybe we didn't mention it at all. Let me just tell everybody. The way Jenna is getting a hold of these statistics is based on people using the app to turn on their utilities and to arrange movers and things like that, right?

Yeah. Essentially what we do is we work with real estate companies all over the country, so brokerages, property management companies, and we sink into the technology systems that they use and those companies choose to invite their clients to use our app for their move to set up all their services. Right. So we're looking at overall move data and move information for the entire country, and the people who then choose to use our app can go on to use all of our technology here. But overall, we're looking at moving trends at a higher level. Regardless of doing we're what whether they used our app or forwarded their mail or used us to set up their Internet, for example.

This will be continued on the next episode. Thank you for listening and happy investing.

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