1717: Market Collapse via Population Decline

Welcome to the Creating wealth show with Jason Hartman. You're about to learn a new slant on investing, some exciting techniques and fresh new approaches to the world's most historically proven asset class that will enable you to create more wealth and freedom than you ever thought possible. Jason is a genuine, self made multimillionaire who's actually been there and done it. He's a successful investor, lender, developer and entrepreneur who's owned properties in 11 states, had hundreds of tenants and been involved in thousands of real estate transactions. This program will help you follow in Jason's footsteps on the road to your financial Independence Day. You really can do it. And now, here's your host, Jason Hartman with the complete solution for real estate investors.

Hey, it's Jason Hartman and I want to talk to you about the upcoming real estate market collapse. Well, it's not as dire as it might sound. For years I have been talking about how my investment philosophies will work and they have worked. For 18 years I've been teaching people about real estate investing, maybe for longer if you count my career in traditional real estate before being in the investment only business. I've been talking about various principles. Inflation induced debt destruction, packaged commodities investing, the Hartman risk evaluator, and more recently the new Hartman comparison index. And they're all great if I don't say so myself. Well, hey, I don't have to. You told me that. But I have always made the disclaimer that all of these philosophies depend on an increasing or at least a stable population in a given market. If that population should decline. Houston, we have a problem. Right? Let's look at what is happening to the population and how this might affect the real estate market in the coming years. I think this is a very important topic. Make sure you stay to the end. We're going to cite a couple of well known books, a couple of well known people on this topic and we have a couple of great sources. Cnbc, Elon Musk, the United nations, bunch of other things for you. So be sure to stay until the end because there's a lot here for you today. And let's go ahead and dive into it. So years ago I read this fantastic book and I want to recommend it. It's called the bet and it's about two people who have completely different opinions on the future, on the environment and on population. Whether population growth is a ticking time bomb, if it is a problem that is going to just really hurt or wipe out the earth and subsequently humanity, or if the increasing population is Actually a benefit if it is a resource. And these two people with opposing views would just lock heads. And they made a bet, a famous bet between Paul Ehrlich and Julian Simon. One was saying that the population is a disaster. People, people will not stop procreating. It's going to ruin us all. It's going to. It's already ruining the environment. It's going to just cause huge problems. And the other said, look, people are a resource. People solve problems. And of course, this is my way of putting it, this is not exactly what they said, but I am putting my own beliefs on it, right? And they will figure this out, and the population will. Will start to change as people become more prosperous and as more countries adopt Western democratic ideals. So this is a fascinating book. I'd highly recommend it. Please check it out. It's called the Bet, and I think you'll really enjoy it. Now, this picture on the screen is the picture of a foolish, foolish man.

Well, maybe he wasn't so foolish, because everything is relative to the times in which we live, isn't it? To the context of our life, relative to what we know at the time. And he thought that the population growth would become just a tragedy for the world because resources were scarce. And as the population increased, of course, people consume resources, and as they consume it is going to tax the environment, it's going to tax the food supply, and it will ultimately lead to our demise. Well, that is none other than Thomas Malthus. And his philosophy actually has a name, Malthusian philosophy, or Malthusian beliefs, whatever you.

Want to call it.

And he was wrong, wrong, wrong. But back when he was 32 years old in 1798, he knew what he knew, and the world was like it was. And that was before the Industrial Revolution. It was before, obviously, the technological revolution. And so things were different back then. Maybe at the time, with the knowledge he had, maybe he was right, but since then, he has been proven massively wrong. And people have really been considered not a cost, but a resource. Now, there are still those today, like some of the powers that be, some of the powerful people in the world, Bill Gates as an example, who believe that people are a problem, that people are the scourge of the Earth. Well, look, we don't have to go down the rabbit hole of all this philosophical debate. I just want to talk about the real estate market and what it means to us as investors. Now, I host many podcasts, but one of them is called the Longevity and Biohacking Show. And as lifespan increases. Now, lately, it's taken a hit. In fact, sadly, just last year, US Population stats said that we actually lost for the first time in a long, long time, we actually lost the war on aging where the typical lifespan decreased, not increased as it always has. That's what we're used to. We're used to seeing the lifespan increase, better medical care. But hey, nowadays with what's going on in the world, plus you add these terrible diets, processed food, it is quite literally killing people through bad habits, through advertising, manipulation of the food supply, misleading food labeling, all kinds of problems. And so lifespans are sadly decreasing. But overall, I think, and you'll probably agree, the trend is going to be be up. New advances in technology and even toward the singularity concept will increase lifespan ultimately. But people are a resource now. The problem is not the lifespan, it's the birth rate. And I want to talk about a study, a UN study and there's a book on it, it's called Empty Planet the Shock of Global Population Decline. Yes, decline, not increase, not what we're used to, Population decline. And just look at the description of this book a little bit. For half a century, statisticians, pundits, politicians have warned that a burgeoning planetary population will soon overwhelm the Earth's resources. That was what Thomas Malthus thought back in 1798, but it didn't happen. But a growing number of experts are sounding a different kind of alarm. Rather than growing exponentially, they argue the global population is headed for a steep decline. Throughout history, depopulation was the product of catastrophe. Ice ages, plagues, the collapse of civilizations. This time, however, we are thinning ourselves out deliberately by choosing to have fewer babies than we need to replace herself. Now replacement rate is considered to be 2.1. Every woman needs to have 2.1 children for the population to be steady, equal. And in pretty much the entire western world and some of the rest of the world, sadly, the population is absolutely falling off a cliff, literally a birth rate cliff, a demographic cliff. We will see in our lifetime if we live our full natural lives. And hopefully we will, and hopefully that lifespan will increase. We will see countries quite literally disappear from the face of the earth. Russia, Japan and although it's not a country but a region, Western Europe at least as they are now, because people simply are not replacing themselves. They're just not having children at a replacement rate. The population is getting older. This has wide ranging impact on the economy, on the housing market, on the welfare state, on government entitlements. Huge, huge impacts. Let's listen to Some of the video here by cnbc, they've got a fantastic channel online. Listen to this. And I want you to listen very carefully to the very first thing in this video.

Having children is the ultimate vote of confidence in the future.

It's. You really believe in what?

Listen to that. Having children is the ultimate vote of confidence in the future. So is it because people don't feel confident about the future? They're basically betting short. They're shorting the future. If we think of it like a stock in the stock market, well, maybe, but there are a whole host of other factors. So let's go ahead and listen in.

What your opportunities are going to be going forward. You're very certain about what you're feeling future looks like in this quarantine time. That's the last thing that we can say.

Mothers typically talk about the more children.

You had is bad for their pocketbook.

What we learned from the Great Recession is that every 1 percentage point increase in the unemployment rate reduces births by 1%.

Despite speculation of a surge in quarantine babies, the US fertility rate is actually shrinking and has been for a while.

Births have been falling for the last almost 15 years now.

@ this point, millennials have less financial confidence than the generation before us. Living through our second once in a lifetime recession has made big financial decisions like providing for and creating a brand new human like my niece here, Sydney, quite.

Difficult. I've got two little.

Kids. I'm pretty concerned for.

Them. Plus, there's a prevailing ideology that large families are a drain on the.

Environment. The costs of ongoing economic growth as it's currently designed are causing damage to planet and.

People. Meanwhile, baby boomers are retiring and aging out of the.

System. If you have an economy that since the end of the Second World War has grown based on consumerism, what happens when all your consumers are old and they have everything they.

Want? So is the US running out of people? And what impact does population size have on the economy? To maintain the current population size, every woman would need to have 2.1 children. This is known as the rate of.

Replacement. And the point one is because, you know, not everyone goes on to have children themselves. And there's some child mortality in the United States. The total fertility rate, that measure is now around.

1.7. The total fertility, or birth rate, refers to the actual number of children each woman is having. Currently, There are nearly 7.8 billion people in the world, or over 330.

Million in the US through fertility alone, we would expect our population to start to decline if that rate is sustained for a very long.

Period. People think, for example, that fertility is out of control. Well, the truth is, it isn't. I mean, if you take a look, particularly at millennial fertility in the United States, it's down to one now. The American birth rate is well below replacement rate and continuing to.

Decline. Although declining fertility rates can be a leading indicator for a recession, it is more often correlated with increased and opportunities for women. But female workers add a lot to the bottom line. According to one study, if women entered and stayed in the US Workforce at the same rate as they do In Norway, the US economy would be $1.6 trillion larger. American women now are having fewer children than our mothers. In 2020, the birth rate dropped to its lowest level in 35 years. There's also been a huge decline in teenage.

Births. Now, I want you to notice what they said there about the workforce, and I've talked about this many times on prior podcasts and videos on my YouTube channel, etc. But if you think about it, there is a giant, giant incentive to break up families to see women in the workforce. Huge advantage for governments, for corporations. I mean, prior to the feminist movement, women used to complain that men were running the world and women were second class citizens. But now women are simply slaves to corporations. It's just unbelievable the way this has turned out. And think about it, if we encourage divorce and discourage marriage, then what happens to the consumer products, demands, Right? It's a huge stimulus to the economy. Instead of needing one sofa, you need two sofas. Instead of needing one bed, you need two beds. Instead of needing one house, you need two houses. Instead of the possibility of sharing one car for the family, you definitely got to have two cars. You need two coffee makers, two toasters, two refrigerators, two dishwashers. Two of everything if people are single. If you can get these married people to get a divorce, you stimulate the economy. The big evil corporations literally double their customer base. I mean, how else can you double your customer base? Right. How else can you get in a position where your consumer market will literally double in size? Well, you discourage marriage and you encourage for those who are married, you encourage divorce. And they do this through the media, through the culture war, et cetera, et cetera. It's just absolutely staggering how effective this has been. You do it through government policies like Aid to Families with Dependent Children, where you pay women, single mothers only if they're single. But if they're married, if they stay together, they don't get any money from the government. Right, right. They get money if the father is absent. So what gets rewarded gets repeated. That great line from that great old book, the greatest management principle in the world. What gets rewarded gets repeated. So true in every area of.

Life in the U.S. what's clear is that there are less unintentional births than ever.

Before. In addition to the decline that we've been seeing in fertility, there's another trend that's happening underneath that, which is an increasing age at.

Birth. It's more like in the late 20s or 30s or something. Now compared to during the baby boom, it would have been.

20. It used to be, you know.

Uncommon to see a 40 something year.

Old woman who is now planning a pregnancy. Now that seems to almost be, at least for us, a.

Norm. Women have changed the lives that they want to live. When they have more of a decision to make about the type of family, they're more empowered to make the kind of decision they want to make about their family. And when they make that decision, not for everybody, but for most people, it's fewer.

Kids. So women are waiting to have their first child longer and then their subsequent children. What sort of remains to be seen in this area is the extent to which the decline in fertility that we're seeing is really a delay of births. So that these declines for women in their teens and early 20s will be made up later when they're in their 30s, or whether this is a permanent reduction in their lifetime.

Fertility. The pandemic may have accelerated this trend as people are less likely to have babies in uncertain financial times. That might mean less American born workers, consumers and students. However, that could work out well for babies like Sydney when she applies for a job in 20.

Years. At the end of the day, the fewer people you're competing with, the easier things are for.

You. There is that in terms of getting a.

Job. But you know, I mean, who knows, maybe one of the kids that isn't born is going to cure cancer, would have cured.

Cancer. Population size and fertility rates should inform how we plan for the.

Future. See if one of the kids who wasn't born cured cancer, Right? But do the powers that be really want to cure cancer? It's a very lucrative industry, cancer treatment. So poison the food supply and then treat people for cancer and diabetes because hey, there's a lot of money in it. It's just unbelievable how some do not see this. And it is so scary what the corporatocracy is doing to people, whether it be big pharma, big medicine, big food, big everything, all the big, the big tech, you know, big is just, it's just evil pretty much. Because when you get this kind of power, it's like the old saying, what it come from Voltaire maybe, right? Power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. So that's enough of that video. Now let's look at some other stuff. So here's Wired magazine. World might actually run out of people. The United nations predicts that the global population will soon explode in empty planet. Right. John Ibbotson and Daryl Becker Bricker argue that they're dead wrong. So they've been talking about this population explosion for so long, but really what it is is an implosion. So if you want to know more about this stuff, be sure to join us for our upcoming event, Empowered Investor Live. It's in September. Go to empowered investor.com to get tickets for that. Let's look at China now. Even China, where they had the one child policy for so long, it was just awful, was completely evil. What China did during this one child policy, they are now suffering and they see it, the writing is on the wall. What's happening to China? So you know, is it already too late to defuse China's population time bomb? Well, with a rapidly aging population and a fast shrinking labor force, China is under rising pressure to completely remove its much maligned birth controls to defuse a ticking demographic time bomb. This is a complete 180, an about face from the old policies. Look at this. China's population will peak at 1.44 billion and 1.46 billion in 2030 before entering a long period of decline. Some expect the population to fall to less than 800 million by 2100. So that means China's population is, is basically going to be cut almost in half. Can you imagine that? Can you imagine trying to run a country like Japan? I mean, look at Japan. It's ABS or Russia, Japan, Russia, Western Europe, those three absolutely staggering the problems they have because of their demographic implosion. When you don't have young people entering the workforce, there's nobody paying into the system. Who's going to pay for Social Security or the likes of it or whatever social safety net needs to be provided? Who are going to be those young consumers that buy the products of all these companies? They're just going to evaporate. The population is aging fast. Older people do not consume as much. Younger people consume more. And it's, it's going to be a hugely significant issue. The population of over 65 now, this is China we're talking about, is expected to reach 300 million by 2025, accounting for about 20% of the total, significantly up from 176 million by the end of 2019. So that's six years and about 12.6% of the total. Meanwhile, the country's labor force, that's people age 16 to 59, has continued to shrink to 896 million in 2019, the eighth year in a row, and is projected to decline to 830 million by 2030. Now do you see why China is investing so much money and so many resources into robotics and automation? Because they see that they've got this huge problem with their workforce just evaporating. It is just going away. Japan as a country. You know, I know I'm switching between China and Japan, but Japan has had this demographic implosion going on for quite some time. That country is likely to disappear in 70 years. It just. It just won't exist. You can't have a country if you don't have people. Same with Russia, same with Western Europe. So it is a huge, huge problem. Now, let's look at this video from Wall Street Millennial. And it's about the population implosion and how it will cause a global economic catastrophe. Now we're going to tie this in with the real estate market and what it.

Means. What's up, guys? And welcome to Wall Street Millennial. Today, we're talking about an existential threat that humanity faces, but gets almost no media attention. We're talking about the impending population collapse that could leave many countries around the world economically ruined. The as the global population has increased to over $7 billion over the last century, 7 billion people have overpopulation and food shortages. In fact, in many ways, the opposite has happened. Advances in farming technology have made food cheaper and more abundant than any other time in human history. Over the past two decades, hunger has declined to all time lows, even in the least developed regions such as sub Saharan Africa. Instead of suffering from overpopulation, many developed countries are facing the opposite problem of underpopulation. For example, Japan has suffered population declines every year since 2010, despite the fact that life expectancy is increasing. This has resulted in a rapidly aging population with a median age exceeding 48 years in 2021. The average age in the United States and Europe is not quite as high at 38 and 43 years, respectively. However, both regions are rapidly aging and they will ultimately suffer the same.

Fate. By the way, if you want to look at the difference here, just like I always say on the podcast, watch old movies, watch old TV shows, read Old books, listen to old music. But in this case especially old movies, old TV shows. Look at the environment and what it was like in the 1960s or even the 70s, the early 70s, late 60s especially. Notice how many young people there were. I mean, can you imagine? Remember Woodstock, right? That took place in 1969. And that was the famous concert in New York State where so many people showed up. And it sort of was kind of the symbol of the 60s and the counter revolution and all of this stuff, right? That just couldn't happen today. In the same way, there, there just aren't that many young people anymore. The population has aged so dramatically. I mean, think about that. A typical age being 38 years old. I mean, wow. And if you take immigration into the US out of these stats, the numbers are demonstrably worse. So immigration is the only thing that has kept that age down. It's not by birth rate at all. Those stats would be much, much.

Worse. An aging population represents an existential risk to an economy. As the country ages, retired people make up a larger and larger proportion of the population. Retired people, by definition, do not produce any output. They fund their consumption either with their savings or Social Security benefits. The output that retirees consume is produced by young people who are still working nine to five jobs. The proportion of the population engaged in productive labor will diminish, leading to reduced output per capita in living standards. This will take decades to play out, but we are already starting to see the devastating effects of population collapse in some countries as its population has aged. Japan's GDP per capita has declined almost 10% since its peak in 1995. This is despite significant increases in technology during this period. The median age in the US and other developed countries is also rising steadily year over year. At the current rate, almost all developed countries will be doomed to declining living standards over the next few decades. Just like Japan. Because the threat of the population collapse is still more than a decade away, politicians in Western countries are largely ignoring it. However, failure to acknowledge the problem will not make it disappear. The only notable person who has acknowledged the severity of this issue seems to be Elon.

Musk. We should be concerned about demographic.

Implosion. Why do you say.

That? So if you look at countries like Japan, most of Europe, China, and you look at the birth rates in lowest places is only at about half of the sustaining rates when you have an inverted demographic permit. So if you look at the permit and you've got age variation, 60 year olds, 50 year olds, 40 year olds, 20 year olds, you know, like sort of A demographic pyramid. And in some countries it's sort of, it's like an upside down permit. So it'll sort of fall over. It will not, will not stand. What we'll actually have in those countries is a very high dependency ratio where the number of people who are retired is very high relative to the number of people who are net, net producers. And so you cannot, the social safety net will not.

Hold. Meaning the younger workers sort of.

Evolved to just always procreate. And it wasn't birth control or anything, right? Just like how much babies, that's like pop the course and like hopefully some of them would survive. That would be, that was like all of human history until very recently. And now it's, you know, you've got cases like Japan where adult diapers outsell baby diapers. Europe's in a similar situation. China's headed the same way because, you know, they've had the one child policy and then even though they've relieved the one child policy, the social norm has become to have an average one kid. So even when they relieve that requirements didn't change. You can imagine like people sort of say, well what about immigration? It's like, okay, look, there's one and a half billion people in China. Where is China going to get 700 million new people? Okay, that's like three Indonesias. It's like the full gravity of this is not well understood but will become severe, severe issue in the next few.

Decades. Obviously the cause of the population implosion is that people are not having enough kids. To maintain a given level of population, each couple must have on average two kids. This is known as the fertility rate. This map shows the fertility rate by country. Purple countries have fertility rates of less than 2 and are thus experiencing a population implosion. As you can see, the United States, almost all of Europe, Russia, China and Australia all have fertility rates of less than 2. The only countries with high fertility rates are developing countries such as those in Africa. The most extreme country is South Korea, with a fertility rate of 1, which is half the sustaining rate. At the current rate, South Korea's population will be cut in half in just one generation. Such a dramatic drop in population has never been observed in world history. The closest thing is the Black plague in the 1300s, which wiped out up to one third of the hardest hit countries. For a country's population to be cut in half is uncharted territory. The economic and social consequences will be unprecedented. Parents in rich countries have higher incomes and thus a greater ability to raise children. So it seems Counterintuitive that rich countries have lower fertility rates. There are a couple reasons for this. Firstly, women in developed countries have greater equality in employment opportunities. Thus, many of them avoid having children as they would rather focus on their careers. Also, in rich countries, kids have greater opportunities for education. Parents want to send their kids to college. Therefore, they only have one or two kids so that they can save up enough money to help them pay for university tuition fees. On the other hand, in poor countries, it is optimal to have as many kids as possible and in part so they can help out on the family farm. Whatever the reason, as countries get richer, people decide to have less kids. This is happening across the developed world. With very few exceptions, Japan is the most advanced country as far as the aging population. It's important to look at Japan as an example as most developed countries will end up in a similar situation as Japan within the next few decades. Over the Post World War II era, Japan's economy flourished. It rapidly adopted advancing technologies and took advantage of the rapidly globalizing market for automobiles and electronics. However, in 1991, it suffered from a massive stock and real estate crash which sent the economy into a deep recession. Normally, when countries experience recessions, they recover after a few years and return back to their steady growth rates. However, this did not happen in Japan. They suffered more than 25 years of economic stagnation, with the average Japanese citizen in 2021 being worse off than they were in 1995. A large part of this can be explained by the aging population. As the share of retired people becomes greater and greater, a larger share of the country's resources will go towards retirement benefits. This leaves less money left over for investment in physical capital or innovation. The lack of investment causes the economy to stagnate. So what can governments do to stem the.

Population? See, so many economists just argue over Japan's economic policies and they just completely ignore the demographic disaster that has taken place in Japan. I would argue that that is probably their biggest problem. It's maybe the hardest working people on earth. When I visited Japan, I absolutely loved it there. The people are so polite and so civilized and incredibly hardworking, working, very industrious people. But they just don't have children. Did you see or hear about this really weird trend in Japan? How women in Japan are having weddings with no husband? Yeah. There are wedding planners to do solo weddings in Japan, where it's just the woman. She gets a dress and takes pictures and does all these things. There's no husband. Look it up, you'll see. Yeah, I mean, there's all kinds of videos you can see about it. It's this solo wedding trend in.

Japan. Unfortunately, there's no easy solution to the problem. They can encourage people to have more kids through tax deductions and other incentives. However, this is easier said than done. The U.S. department of Agriculture estimates that it costs $233,000 to raise a kid from 0 to 18 years old in the U.S. this is not even including cost of a college education or the opportunity cost if one parent quits their job to raise the.

Kid. And by the way, I would argue that just like the way the unemployment rate is manipulated to look lower than it really is, and just like the consumer price index is manipulated to look lower than it really is to make inflation seem lower than it really is, I would argue those stats about raising a child are also manipulated to scare would be parents into not having children. It's just a huge thing. I mean it's, it's absolutely unbelievable how, how deep this runs into the culture.

War. Most countries can only afford to offer tax incentives of a few thousand dollars. With such hefty costs of raising a child, tax incentives are largely too small to.

Matter. And think about this. You know, if you're doubting anything I'm saying, why do you think companies like these big companies, these big tech companies, Apple, Google, all the rest, they offer programs where they give incentives for women to freeze their eggs, to delay pregnancy, to delay childbirth, because they want them working, they want them in the workforce and they don't want them marrying because then you'll cut your market size in half for all your consumer products. I mean, do you think Amazon, the biggest consumer products company. Well, maybe it's Walmart, I don't know. Anyway, whatever. Do you think Amazon or Walmart want a bunch of married people sharing everything or would they rather have people needing two of everything? Right, because they live in separate houses? Of course they rather have people needing two of everything. It's just absolutely amazing how deep this whole thing.

Runs. Developed countries can also try to solve the problem by allowing mass immigration of young people from poorer countries. Immigration is a very controversial political issue as many people fear that it depresses the wages of the native population.

Which of course it does. There's no question about that. That's absolute fact. I mean, why would someone hire a more expensive native person, like an American, when they can get cheaper labor coming from south of the border? Obviously they're going to go with the lowest priced option. Everybody does it, right? I do it, you do it, we all do it that's just the way it is. Why would people buy American made products when they can buy cheap stuff made in China? So they import the cheap labor and they import the cheap goods. But what that means is the natives in the given country, in this case I'm Talking about the U.S. it puts them out of work, it suppresses their wages so that their wages aren't as high. You know, it's amazing to me how people make these idiotic glib statements about immigration. They say, well, you know, Americans just won't do those jobs. Well, they did them in the 50s and the 60s. Somebody in the 50s and 60s did agriculture, somebody picked strawberries, somebody did landscaping. These arguments just make no sense at all. They're just half baked ideas that you hear bantied about in the news.

Media. Most developed countries do not allow immigration to nearly the extent necessary to solve the population problem. Furthermore, for countries like China, there are not enough migrants in the world to fill the population hole. Even if they did allow open borders, there are no easy solutions to the population problem. If there were, countries like Japan would have already solved it by now. There are deeply rooted reasons for fertility decline in rich countries and they will likely only increase over the next few decades. Given the dire outlook for the developed world, long term investors should position themselves carefully to limit their risk. It is possible that the unfavorable supply side effects of the population implosion will result in scarcity of goods and thus price inflation. Thus, it may be prudent to limit your exposure to cash or bonds. These are nominal assets whose value will be eroded by inflation. Real assets like real estate and stocks will give investors better protection from inflation. The economic consequences of the population bomb may also have dire effects on stock markets. For example, Japan's Nikkei stock index has suffered 30 years of stagnation, decreasing 25% from its peak in 1989 through today. The CIA keeps track of the median population in every country and we've included a link in the description below. Investors may want to take age data into account when deciding country allocations for globally diversified stock.

Portfolio. No question about it. That's good point on the video and that's from Wall Street Millennial, so thank you for that. What does this mean for real estate investors? Well, he said it in the video that real estate was the better choice in investments and I agree with that. But very long term there will be an impact. There will be a time probably around 2055 to 2060 and on where in the US this population problem really starts to take its toll. Until then, it looks like we're in pretty good shape. When I look at the charts and graphs, I think we're probably okay. But after that, you know, if you get a 30 year mortgage today, you're going to be long gone out of those properties by then. Right? But we have fantastic demographics coming at the rental market and end the for sale housing market for the next 10 years. They are truly incredible. They were incredible 10 years ago when I made that prediction. I renewed that prediction again for the next 10 years. So it is the trade of the decade, but on the very long term scale, which we don't have to worry about right now, not for a long time for, you know, we got a few decades ahead of us of probably pretty good times, at least on the demand side and likely on the supply side because housing is a pretty low tech item. Even with all the talk about 3D houses and manufactured houses and I've debunked those myths on other, other videos and podcasts that I've done. They're not, at least so far, revolutionizing housing. Not in the least. A lot of hype, a lot of clickbait out there. But the longer term, there will be a big housing problem, a glut of housing as the population declines, if it declines, and right now it looks like it will decline. Remember, if you want to have the workers in 20 to 25 years, you got to have the children today. That's how long it takes that seed to sprout. Right? You got to have the children today to have the workers of 2041 to 2046. That's the timeline. And then those people get to their highest, at least historically in recent history, their highest earning years and their highest spending years by age 46. So I talked about when they're 20 to 25, but 46 is, is their right around there is their peak spending and peak earning years. So join us for Empowered Investor Live. Get your tickets at Empowered Investor Live and we'd love to have you join us for that event. I hope this was informative, I hope it was interesting and thanks for listening and happy.

Investing.

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