1739: 5 Million Housing Shortage, Joe Biden's Terrible Tax Plan for Real Estate Investors

This show is produced by the Hartman Media Company. For more information and links to all our great podcasts, visit hartmanmedia.com My name is Jeremy. I'm a big supporter of Jason Hartman and grateful to Jason for a lot of what I've learned over the last four years. I can attest to him. We've had some good success using the strategies, being a little more conservative on some of the decisions. So we've purchased a couple of properties through the Creating wealth network. Through Jason's network. Big support, Porter. Grateful to Jason again. Thanks.

Welcome to the Creating wealth show with Jason Hartman. You're about to learn a new slant on investing, some exciting techniques and fresh new approaches to the world's most historically proven asset class that will enable you to create more wealth and freedom than you ever thought possible. Jason is a genuine, self made multimillionaire who's actually been there and done it. He's a successful investor, lender, developer and entrepreneur who's owned property in 11 states, had hundreds of tenants, and been involved in thousands of real estate transactions. This program will help you follow in Jason's footsteps on the road to your financial Independence Day. You really can do it. And now, here's your host, Jason Hartman with the complete solution for real estate investors.

Welcome to episode 1730. 39. 1739. Yes, I have my voice back. Well, almost. I think it's about 85% back.

Oh, it was such a fun weekend. Anyway. Hey, I'll tell you the reason, if for no other reason, you must attend our next event. Well, actually, there are two reasons outside of the obvious. The great education, the great networking, the lifelong friendships, the fun, the laughter, the meals, and the beautiful resorts, the beautiful venues we have our events at. Guess what? Here are two other reasons. Number one, you must see your host. Yes, yours truly do two things.

Air guitar.

Some people got some awesome pictures of me and videos of me playing air guitar for the band when they went on break. And not only that, you gotta see yours truly, your host. You may not believe this, but I know how to cut a rug. Yes, I do.

Now, I was not the best dancer at this event, at our Empowered Investor Live event, but I would say I was the second best dancer. And everybody knows who the best dancer was, but I will not mention any names because the best dancer was very modest about it. Anyway, it was a great event. You must attend our next event for all of those great reasons. And by the way, for those of you listening who have video and photos of me doing the air guitar solo up there, you gotta Admit it was pretty good, but please send them to me. I'd love to see them. I'd love to see what you've got. So I can pick the best one because I think that should go on, maybe go on our website. Yeah. Think it would be good there. All right, let's dive into it. So today we're going to talk about Biden's terrible tax plan as the main component of our show. But before we get to that, I'm looking at an article and I want to play a clip for you about this. America is short more than 5 million homes and builders can't make up the difference. Now, this was just published yesterday. Couple of points. Some 12.3 million American households were formed from 2012 to 2021, but just over 7 million new single family homes were built during that time.

Do you see the fallacy in this, ladies and gentlemen? This is not quite accurate to just say that 12.3 million households were formed and only 7 million new single family homes were built. Just doing the subtraction and saying, okay, 12.3 million minus 7 million leaves a deficit of 5.3 million new single family homes needed, right? That is not a legitimate metric. Why? Many reasons, Many reasons. Well, number one, was there an oversupply of homes in 2012? Right. Did we have more homes than we needed in 2012? First question, second question. Did all of the households formed need a single family home or did they simply move into an apartment? Some of them did, of course. Now that would be on the side saying that the shortage isn't that big. Let's look at the other side of that question, right? How many homes became obsolete during 2012-2021 period? I mean, some homes became uninhabitable. Every day a certain number of homes becomes obsolete or has at least economic obsolescence, right? These homes become decrepit, they become shacks. They've got to be torn down. They're not worth fixing up. It's like that old clunker car that maybe you had one time in your life. Hopefully none of you have that now because you all got so rich listening to my show and following my great advice, just had to throw that in. But you know, there's a time when you it's just not worth fixing something up anymore because it's literally more expensive to maintain it or to fix it than it is to just, hey, start over, buy a new one. Right? So that's true. But here's the other thing, and this is the biggest one, not new. We've Talked about it before, but it's a big deal. What price segment? What geographic location, what housing style? That's huge. It's a big deal. It's huge. Huge.

Huge.

Huge. That's the biggest thing, right? The homes. The 7 million homes that were built during this time indicates that there's an extreme shortage of 5.3 million homes. But it's worse than that. Why is it worse than that? Because 12.3 million new households were formed. Only 7 million homes were built. Right. Okay, do the math, Einstein. Yes, we could do that math. We talked about it already. But guess what? The homes that were built were almost always, in almost every case.

Not built for the new households that were formed because they were not entry level homes. Now, granted, and this is why this is complicated, folks, some of those people moved up and they moved out of entry level homes. So some of these 12.3 million people could move into entry level homes. Sure, that's true, but the bulk of it was not that.

This is why the shortage may even be quite a bit worse than 5.3 million homes. But again, there are some things that mitigate that. Homes becoming obsolete. You know. You know, there's. There's just a lot of factors, right? You understand that this is. These are not simple statistics. And the media would have us believe that they can be oversimplified, which they cannot. They cannot be oversimplified. This stuff is complex. That's why there are industry experts and analysts and economists and. Yeah, there's just a lot more to it than it meets the eye, as always. Okay, let me play this video clip from CNBC and let's hear more about it.

At an open house last weekend in suburban Dallas.

Have they done any changes recently?

There were far fewer potential buyers than in previous months.

Part of the market is pulling back because they're disillusioned because of the high prices.

The median price of an existing home nationally in July was up nearly 18% from a year ago. The same for new construction prices in Dallas. Fort Worth, up 17%.

Had so many multiple offers in the second quarter, they sold at a higher price. So that higher price is what's starting to set the new comps.

The home builders reported buyer traffic in August dropped to the lowest level in over a year. And realtors say showings are down as well. Those buyers who are outlooking are less optimistic, more realistic.

It's sad because people, I think, are.

Not getting what they exactly want, but.

They'Re settling for what they get.

Jason Marlin and his family have been looking for, for about a year in.

The last couple of months, I would say it's been harder, more difficult. We've lived here for 11 years and we're looking to upgrade and it seems like the prices are going up faster than we can even catch up with.

So why are buyers still willing to try?

Fear of inflation as much as the Delta variant, that they are seeing prices inflate and that they are afraid that with all the transportation plants that are coming into the DFW area, they are, they believe that the prices are going to be higher next year.

There is more supply coming on the market. Not enough. But at least some builders are still not producing enough to meet demand due to higher costs for land, labor and materials. It is likely sales will come down in the coming months simply due to weaker affordability Prices though will take longer to come back to earth.

Okay, so Diana Olich there talking about that. But folks, remember, there's a lot more to it than you just heard because number one, what is true of they used one example, which is Dallas. But that's true of pretty much every suburban American market, at least the desirable ones that are business friendly. And also the affordability question, of course, has been addressed and answered by, by the hci, the Hartman Comparison Index, the best way to understand whether something is cheap or expensive. And we've talked about that before, so I will not go into it today. Okay, so let's get to the main part of our show as we talk about the disastrous Biden tax plan. And we will go there, right? No.

So Biden's tax plan, this is causing a lot of concern. Many, many people very, very worried about the impact of Biden's plan. If you are an investor in stocks, bonds, real estate, anything, if you are saving money and investing it in anything, there is a lot of cause for concern here. If you plan to pass away someday, let's not think about that, right. And have your heirs inherit your estate, you should be concerned. If you plan to inherit an estate, you should be concerned. There are many, many reasons for big concern about this tax plan. If you are looking for a house, you should be concerned. If you are looking to buy or rent that house, either way, be very concerned. There are lots of reasons for concern on many levels here. We're going to go through them and take a look at the potential very big concern. As you see the little logo up there on the slide, Biden thief, not chief. Maybe. Maybe it is depending on how you feel about taxes, there is a lot of cause for concern here. So let's go ahead and take a look at five main areas of the Biden tax plan. And I want to talk to you about some things that have been staples of the tax code for decades, just for so long. And they are, they are just things that people count on, that they've always thought they could rely on as investors and things that really incentivize investors to create more housing supply and more supply of retail properties and office properties and industrial properties. This has impact on so many levels. It is so just wide ranging. The reach of this could be devastating to the markets, institutional investors. It will cause them to change the game of the way they play in the market. Mom and pop investors, same thing. So big, big issues here. We've got to cover them. Let's go ahead and dive in. So first, just a video clip from a YouTuber you've probably heard of. This is Kevin talking about the plan. And I want to kind of expand on his because I thought he did a good job outlining. You know, when people talk about these tax plans, they sort of think of it in a vacuum. A lot of times they think, well, especially the idiots in the government, right? They think, well, if we raise taxes, the government will just get more money. But it's never that simple. There's so much more to it than that. Because what they don't account for so many times is how will the people react? How will the marketplace react? What will they do? How will they change their plans as a reaction to that tax plan? So let's listen to a short clip from Kevin here.

Like, literally all this 1031 exchange rule is going to do, in my opinion, is going to take massive amounts of money, corporate money, investor money, you name it, and funnel it straight into the single family and condo market. Because all of a sudden, people are going to be wanting that 1031 exchange to defer ever paying taxes on their real estate. Big multifamily just got slapped in the face with this 1031 rule.

Okay, so what is he talking about there? Well, here it is. So Biden wants to limit the 1031 exchange to $500,000 per year. Now, you may not know this if you don't run in these circles, but $500,000 is a very small exchange. Look at the price of real estate today, right? If you're only deferring 500,000 in gain, and keep in mind the gain is not just the difference between what someone paid for the property and what they're selling the property for. It's also the depreciation recapture. That is the huge amount of this gain that people are typically deferring through 10 exchanges. And just note that there is so much economic stimulation that happens through a 1031 tax deferred exchange. It causes people to trade more properties. So when there's more trading, what happens? Well, certainly brokers make money, exchange companies make money, lenders financing the new deals make money. Accountants and lawyers make money because they're called in to consult on these deals. There are people doing environmental impact reports on the new property they buy, maybe on the buyer of the old one that's being purchased, you know, sold in the exchange and being purchased by someone else. There are so many wide ranging things and then there's a whole economy of people who improve properties. Typically when someone trades a property, they see more value in it than the seller did and they want to improve the property, so they fix it up. They hire people to do new flooring, new paint, new appliances, maybe remodels, maybe additions, all sorts of things. And not just residential type properties, big commercial properties that are constantly involved in these huge, some of these exchanges are giant tens of millions of dollars. So what Kevin is saying there is that there is an incentive to not deal in large properties. So institutional investors, he hypothesizes, and I agree with him, will now be incentivized to stop buying large multifamily properties, large office buildings, large retail centers, industrial properties, etc, and they will be incentivized to buy lots of cheap single family homes. Well, anybody who's paying attention to the real estate market knows that there's a huge movement of institutional money in residential, single family home real estate, which has really never happened before. That was a new thing coming out of the Great Recession. That really was a game changer. And it is certainly, certainly continuing. And I think it's going to increase if this happens. But there's a lot more to this. So make sure you stick with me because we got to talk about some huge unintended consequences. And it's not about the 1031 exchange. So keep listening. There's lots more to come. So the estimate is that 1031 exchanges generate over half a million jobs. This year will generate over half a million. And that's about $27.5 billion in labor income and $55 billion in value added to the economy. All of the taxes generated from those people doing those things, that's a big deal. That is a huge, huge deal. So this is the problem with, with the zero sum game thinking in government, where they think if they raise taxes, they will generate more revenue. It has been proven over and over again that raising taxes literally decreases revenue for the government. Okay. In many cases. Now, one of the strategies that can help people deal with this is my refi till you die strategy. And this is explained in much more detail on my Creating wealth podcast or other YouTube videos on my YouTube channel. So check that out or contact one of our investment counselors for help on that. And by the way, I want to say, since this is complex tax stuff, we are not giving tax advice or legal advice. Everybody's situation is extremely different. This is extremely complex. So please consult the appropriate professional. Now, what about the corporate angle? Will Biden's tax plan incentivize companies to go abroad? Now, Trump's tax plan incentivize companies to come back and start onshoring. And look, even if you hate Donald Trump's guts, as half the country does, you must admit that there was a lot of onshoring happening under Trump. Companies that were thinking of moving right at the beginning of his administration, he literally picked up the phone and called them and said, don't leave, okay? And they didn't. A whole bunch of incentive through his tax plan to come back and bring those jobs back to America. So this trend will reverse. Now, Jim Cramer was on just yesterday trying to say that, ah, this isn't going to affect companies and this and that. And you know, I just think that's absolutely ridiculous. So here's Rohit Kumar and what he says. Let's listen in.

Lay out for us what these higher taxes could mean for corporate America. Earlier we had, earlier this week we had CEO Carmine City on and he said if Biden starts raising taxes on corporate America, it's going to push US Businesses out of, out of the country. We've heard that song before. It doesn't always come true. What do you think the effect will be?

Yeah, it's interesting.

So we actually released our tax policy outlook earlier this week covering many of these topics. And look, you know, there will. Every company is different, right? There are some companies for whom, you know, an incremental increase in the corporate rate, you know, reduces investment, but isn't sort of trajectory altering for the company. To me, the risk is probably greater on the changes on the international side of the ledger. We have a very new and fairly complicated new regime for the way we tax the US Government, taxes the overseas income of US Headquartered multinationals. And the real risk is if you overshoot the mark there and really make being a US Headquartered multinational a real Competitive disadvantage against being a foreign headquartered multinational. That's where you see the kind of risk that was being discussed earlier this week where, look, pre2017, it seemed like every six or nine months some iconic US company was announcing, hey, we're merging with another company and we're relocating our headquarters. And guess what? That isn't going to be in the United States.

So one of the comments, by the way, and thank you Donny, for mentioning this because it kind of of makes me think about it and want to elaborate on it. So I talked about the institutional investors, real estate investors. You know, these are life insurance companies, the big like invitation homes and all these players in the real estate market, a lot of them you never heard about, right? And they own big giant commercial properties. Well, now they would be incentivized to go into the single family home market. So if you have been shopping for a home or a rental property and you're thinking, gosh, I'm always competing with these big institutional buyers now, which you are, because they are driving up prices and this is only going to put more pressure on that. So it's going to create an additional housing shortage. And these are not the kinds of things we want to be incentivizing folks. We want to incentivize developers and investors to provide more housing to people, not create more shortages so that this becomes a winner take all world where just a few large players have gobbled up all the housing inventory. And with those, you know, semi monopolies that they have, they can fix rents and really hurt tenants. You know, both sides of this, okay, look at both sides of the political aisle should be very concerned about these kinds of things. All right, so let's move on. So let's talk about long term capital gains. This has been a huge issue and depending on what state you live in. Oh wow.

Wow.

You gotta be really concerned about this. So look, ordinary income is taxed at one rate and capital gains or investment income is taxed at a lower rate. Long term capital gains currently and for, for many, many years has been taxed at a lower rate. Why you might think that, well, that's unfair. Well, how would it be unfair? The investor who bought the asset already paid income taxes on the money they earned and then they saved a portion of that money to buy the asset. And then when they sell the asset, they pay long term capital gains taxes. But now Biden wants them to pay ordinary income taxes at his new higher rates, not, not at the current rates, at the new higher rates on long term capital gains. So even if you buy and hold a property or other asset for a long time, over a year, it might be 10 years, you will now pay taxes that will be usually maybe double the current rate. And so what will this do? What is the effect? You've got to ask yourself, okay, it'll have a two tiered effect, likely. So before this potential law goes into effect, it would cause people to dump properties onto the market because they don't want to pay. They don't want to be stuck in this new oppressive regime that is taxing them at this higher rate. And especially if the 1031 tax deferred exchange goes away or, or is limited to $500,000 per year in deferral, that's just huge, right? I mean, I'm just doing a 1031 exchange now. I sold four of my properties and I bought two more properties, more expensive properties with that exchange, and I'm deferring, right? So a lot of our investors, a lot of our clients are rushing to do their 1031 exchanges now in fear that this is coming, right? But some people don't do a 1031. They just sell the property or the other asset and they pay the tax. So they would be incentivized to dump properties before the law goes into effect, but if the law does go into effect afterwards, they would be incentivized to hoard properties and never sell them.

That would create an additional shortage and push prices up even higher. Now, isn't everybody complaining about an affordability problem? Why would we want to incentivize more shortages? That's exactly what this absolutely pathetic, stupid thing would do, right? So it's just, it's a terrible idea. It's an absolutely terrible idea. Okay, let's look at the country. Now, this really matters where you live, okay? It really, it really matters where you live. So if you live in my former home state, the Socialist Republic of California, I made my mouse pointer really large. So you can see it. You would pay on selling a property. Or this applies to many other assets too. Okay? You would pay the federal short, well, the federal capital gains tax, but you'd also pay the state capital gains tax. That means you would pay more than half of the money to the government. More than half. Now what happened in other countries like England when they had tax rates like this? Guess what? People left in droves. They just said, I can't do it anymore. I'm not giving more than half my money to the government. You know, people will tolerate 30, 40%. It really should be maybe 20% like Steve Forbes has proposed. 15. 20%. I mean, look, think about it. If you go to church and you tithe, what is the typical tithing? It's 10%, okay? If God can live on 10%, the government should be able to live on 20%. I mean, right? It's just absurd. It's just absurd. So in California, you would pay 50. Basically 57% to the government, the state and federal government. Now, if you live in my new home state, thankfully, Florida, you would only pay the 43.4%. Still devastating. But if you lived in the Socialist Republic of New York, you would pay 54.3%. Remember, this is on an asset you bought with money you saved, and on that money that you saved, you already paid taxes for many years on all that income. And then you bought an asset and invested and provided, say, housing to people. And now you would be totally penalized. In the Socialist Republic of Oregon, you would pay 53.3%. In Minnesota, 53.3. Okay? Now, you know, look at all these much more desirable states. Texas, Florida, Wyoming, South Dakota. You know, these are much more desirable places where you'd be much better off. So it really matters what state you live in. You know, here, just another way to express it, you look at the difference between. And by the way you look at it now, in Florida, you pay 23.8. That would now be 43.4. You pay 20% more. In California today, 37%. Absolutely absurd. Compared to Florida. Right. Or some of these other more friendly states, you pay 56.7%. So these are basically 20% tax increases. They're just absolutely devastating. And they will cause people, people to hoard properties. What about estate taxes? Well, maybe we all have to start planning our death, right? You know, talk to Jack Kevorkian, because this is just insane what they're trying to do here. They are trying to steal intergenerational wealth. They are just trying to steal the wealth between the generations. So they propose that wealthy estates, and, and be careful. The definition of wealthy ain't that wealthy, okay, would pay up to 39.6% for capital gains. And there's a big surprise coming, folks. I'm going to tell you about something that's absolutely going to blow your mind just a couple of minutes. So stick with me because you won't believe what you're about to hear. It's absolutely in. Incredible, okay? In addition, there would be a 45% estate tax on a lower minimum estate value of just $3.5 million. Now, some might think that's a big estate, but that is not big at all by today's standards. With, with a house in many markets around the country, a decent house costing 800,000 or a million dollars, this is just not a lot. This is not a big estate. I think currently it's like $11 million or something like that, but there's a big one coming. This is going to totally shock you, okay? The effective tax rate on these estates would be 67.3%. So what Biden wants to do is he wants to cripple the inheritance concept and just bust up the whole idea of allowing parents to leave estates to their children, right? And look, I'm not necessarily in favor of like spoiling or ruining your kids because I think, you know, leaving them too much money in an unplanned way could really hurt them. However, you know, especially when they're young, you know, if they're older and they understand money and they know how to handle it, you know, that's, that's a different concept. But why should the government get their hands on it? Keep in mind, the people have already paid money on the income tax. They've sold properties throughout their life. They've paid capital gains taxes, right? And now they got to pay 67.3% to the government. Just, the government just gets the money. And of course, the government is not known for spending the money in a very positive manner. We know that. If you'd like help figuring all this out, check out our software, realestatetools.com or propertytracker.com and it can help you with taxes and tax, tax planning and in your investment returns and all kinds of stuff. So people are always asking for, for help on that stuff. So I just thought I'd share that. So here is the really ugly one, okay? This idea of vowing to eliminate something called stepped up basis. Here's the concept, okay, of stepped up basis. What happens is basis, currently under current law, okay, on passing steps up to market value. So it allows people to pass their estate onto their heirs at the current market value so that the kids, or the heirs, usually kids, don't get a big tax bill, okay? And this would be a $370 billion tax increase overall. So check this out. Suppose your parents have a home, you know, modest by Today's standards, worth $400,000, and they bought it a couple decades ago or whatever for a hundred thousand dollars. They pass the title prior to their passing, okay? Your basis in the home is the same as theirs. It's a hundred Thousand dollars. If you sell it for its current value, $400,000, you pay capital gains tax on the profit of the 300,000, right? That's the difference between the basis, basically what they paid, and the sales price. But check this out. If you inherit the home, right, your basis is equal to the fair market value of the property on the date they pass. So I'm going to show you a chart on this in just a moment. So there's a huge difference. Now, there are some gift tax limits, and this is why we want you to obviously consult with your tax professional because this stuff does get pretty murky. But look at this, okay? So here is the current basis, the current situation, and here's the new basis, stepped up at a new higher tax rate. So it's not only the concept of stepped up basis, but also a higher tax rate. So basically here, transferred before death, you've got a tax increase here of $58,800. But under the new plan, the inheritance transfer, it would be $118,000. So basically, double. It's just double. The government just gets double for no reason. They haven't provided any more services. They haven't done anything more. And you know that all the promises of where this money will go and what it's supposed to do, do for us, what it's supposed to do for the economy will just never materialize. It will be lost in a monumental maze of corruption and inefficiency and absolute disaster. It's always that way. Now here's the big one I told you about, okay? As we wrap it up here, this is the big, big scary one. There is a concept in taxation and in investment returns called realized and recognized. Realized versus recognized. So I just pulled this out of Investopedia to kind of help explain the concept. But think of it this way. You could have an asset, a piece of real estate, a stock, whatever, a cryptocurrency doesn't matter. Any asset, okay? And you could have made money on that asset on paper, right? It's a paper gain, or maybe it's a paper loss. So say you made money. Say you bought a property and you bought it for $100,000. Now it's worth $200,000. Well, you have a gain that you can see it's there, but you haven't sold the property. So that gain has not been realized. But here's the talk. Here's what Biden wants to do. He wants to tax people on a gain that is just a paper gain. You haven't even actually realized it yet the idea is the government would recognize a gain that you did not actually benefit from. You didn't sell the asset, remember that you didn't sell it, you didn't get any money, it's just on paper. So you're, you've got this rental property or your own home and it doubled in value. Now you would potentially have to pay tax on something that you didn't get any money for. And it could force you to sell the asset when you don't even want to sell it.

And this has huge impact on estates. So on the inheritance example, say there is a family farm or a family business or a bunch of rental properties that the parents bought and they want their kids to inherit it. Well, say they inherit this, right? They could be forced to sell the farm or sell the business on money they didn't, didn't even receive. They're just forced to sell it because they get a tax bill. So this is like a, a way to bust up assets. The government has basically come in, they've barged in, they, they broke the door down and they said, look, you are now forced, we've got a gun to your head and we are forcing you to sell these assets to pay our tax bill. So this is just in incredibly disconcerting. Incredibly. So here's an article on this. I think this was from Real Clear Markets, I believe, but beware of a Biden tax on unrealized capital gains. Okay, so I blew up this one paragraph because I think it explains it pretty well. It says the first of these is a proposal to implement a so called mark to market. Now you probably heard a lot about mark to market as one of the precursors to the Great Recession 2007, 2008 era. You probably heard that mark to market term used a lot. Well, this is a different way to use it. So this mark to market regime for taxing unrealized capital gains, in other words, when the asset is sold and you bank a profit. Right. That's a capital gain. Fine. Okay, pay some taxes. Right, we get it. That's normal. That's understandable to most people. But here this says though it's on paper, value might fluctuate during the ownership. Only when an asset like stock and publicly traded company is sold is the taxpayer liable for the realized capital gain. So that property, that stock. But this would mean that you would be subject to tax. You would be liable for a tax on the unrealized capital gain. It's big. This is really significant.

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