1792: Jason at the Rebel Capitalist Live Conference Part 1, Predictions for 2022, Skimpflation, Housing Shortage, Client Case Studies, Kleptocracy

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Jason Aloha from the Big island of Hawaii. Hey, it's Andrew Freitas from Vancouver, Washington. Yesterday I met with a notary here on the island and signed for a cash out refi for my very first property I bought through your network. About four years and and 11 months to the exact day my cashed out refi, I got all my money back out of the property and put another 6,500 in my pocket. My liability is now zero in the property. I've got some extra cash in my pocket and all while on vacation in Hawaii.

Welcome to the Creating wealth show with Jason Hartman. You're about to learn a new slant on investing, some exciting techniques and fresh new approaches to the world's most historically proven asset class that will enable you to create more wealth and freedom than you ever thought possible. Jason is a genuine, self made multimillionaire who's actually been there and done it. He's a successful investor, lender, developer and entrepreneur who's owned properties in 11 states, had hundreds of tenants, and been involved in thousands of real estate transactions. This program will help you follow in Jason's footsteps on the road to your Financial Independence Day. You really can do it. And now here's your host, Jason Hartman with the complete solution for real estate estate investors.

Welcome to episode 1792. 1792. And thanks for joining us today. Well, last week I was down for the count. I went to Houston for the RCL event. I spoke there. I was the second speaker. And today we will play that speech for you where I make my predictions of the upcoming year and even beyond that so that you get an idea of what is going to happen in the real estate market and the economy. So that's what we're going to do today. But I got the sickness at that event. Shaking hands is a bad idea. We need to eliminate the shaking hands custom, folks. It's just unnecessary. It spreads the sickness. And even before the current issue that we have going on, we had of course, flus and colds and all of that stuff that just doesn't need to be spread around. This is an old custom. The handshake was invented so that when you met someone, they could see that you were not carrying a weapon. Hopefully we're not worrying too much about that nowadays, but the weapon you are carrying is the virus. So don't get that. And if you want to hear about my ordeal and how I made A very quick recovery by borrowing some medicine from my horse.

Yeah.

I'm talking in code. You know that, right?

And I just took a little bit of that, and the next morning I woke up feeling great. I couldn't believe the difference. Just couldn't believe it. Couldn't believe it. I bought that stuff on Amazon for about 30 bucks a few months back and just thought, in case I need.

It, I'm gonna have it.

Didn't get the human kind, you know, but as long as it's pure, that is supposedly okay, right? It's the same thing if it's pure, if there's no other ingredients in it. Anyway, I'm not an expert. I'm not a doctor, obviously, but, hey, it worked for me. Seems like it really helped. And if you want to hear all about that, plus, I got my monoclonal antibody treatments on Saturday. And just a big thanks to Ashley because she worked very, very hard on getting that appointment for me. And also thank you to Rick DeSantis, our governor here, our great governor who set those stations up all over the state. This is not available in every state. You know, there are some states that don't believe in helping people or making them. Well, they want to suppress the truth. You know, it's like Laura Ingram, she said it so well. I was listening to her a couple months ago. She said, you know, for this sickness, we can't do anything that's inexpensive. Anything that's been around for a long time and is inexpensive now, can't do that. Can only do things that make the pharma companies rich. And, yeah, it's. It's just unbelievable. But whatever the case, anyway, I got the antibody treatment on Saturday. And if you want to hear more about that, I talked all about it on yesterday's livestream. And that is available, of course, on YouTube and Facebook if they don't take it down. Because I'm. I'm talking about this stuff. But that is available there for you, so you can get the details there. But let's listen into the predictions for the upcoming year and beyond. And also I want to very much encourage all of you to grab your tickets for Creating Wealth Live and Virtual. Our live virtual event coming up in less than two weeks, and it's super easy to attend. You just jump online and you can attend that event. You can network with other investors, you can ask questions. It's the first time ever doing this event virtually for us, and we are really excited about it. A whole bunch of you have registered already. The event is super cheap. The Tickets are really inexpensive because, hey, we're passing the cost savings on to you. And so join us for that. Go to Jason hartman.com grab your tickets today. Remember, one ticket is for the whole household. So unlike a live in person event, one ticket covers the whole family. Or hey, if you want to invite some friends over and have a watch party on the big screen, you can do that. And one ticket is for everybody. So get your tickets@jason hartman.com and we will look forward to seeing you there at our first ever Creating wealth live virtual event. And that's going to be a great time. Now this is the event that I have been teaching for the longest. This is my oldest, longest running educational event. I started teaching this back in maybe 2004. I talk about the big macro picture, macroeconomics, how they are affecting our decisions as investors, how they affect the real estate market, of course, monetary policy, fiscal policy, the ten commandments of successful investing. That core, core content, gosh, what else? The three dimensions of real estate, the Hartman risk evaluator, and of course, inflation induced debt destruction. Just a lot of great stuff, a lot of this core content that literally generated two banker's boxes full of testimonials. These are handwritten on paper. You know, when we would do this event live, we would pass out paper evaluations for people. And I have about two boxes, two bankers boxes full of raving testimonials about this event. And so now it's virtual. So wherever you are in the world, at the International Space Station on the Mars base, hey, join us. You can get all of this great information, education, ask questions, network with other investors. It's going to be a lot of fun. So get those tickets@jason hartman.com and now let's go to my presentation in Houston about predictions for the upcoming year and beyond and the state of the current market, where we're going to, and just a whole bunch of other stuff. So here we go.

All right, guys, the next person I'd like to bring to stage, a very good friend of mine. He is a real estate expert, to say the least, in residential real estate. His name is Jason Hartman. So we all join me in welcoming him to the stage.

George, thank you. Thank you. Oh, appreciate it. Good morning, rebel capitalists. How are you?

So are you all rebels? Yeah. Well, listen, the thing today is that being a rebel should be the mainstream thing. We are living in a time of unprecedented oppression, economic oppression, and repression of all kinds of our freedoms. I mean, we are under attack, folks. And this has probably never even been considered that this would happen in America, in this great country with the vision of our founding fathers. We have got to defend ourselves, and that's what we're here for this weekend. So let's first start off by thanking George, the visionary, the man who put this on. And George, thank you. I don't know where you are.

Let's get into some predictions. Now, predictions are a dangerous business, right? Because you're going to stick your neck out and you might be wrong. Of course you might be wrong. That's the problem with predictions. So I'm going to make a few predictions and stick my neck out. But I really want to give you the data to do your own thinking about. And we'll just look at some raw, raw data to see what's going on in the marketplace, the real estate market specifically. But it also clues you into the broader economy, of course. So let's look at some of that. Let's start off by talking about where we are now. You know, if you don't know where you are, it's very hard to forecast the future. Yogi Berra said, the future ain't what it used to be. And there's no question about that. You know, one of the things I always say on my podcast is you must watch old TV shows, watch old movies, listen to old music, and read old books. Because so many people, and especially younger people, and you can't blame them because they've been listening to revisionist history in school and especially in these disgusting universities that are. I mean, it's just so warped. It's unbelievable how history is just being revised. But the thing that doesn't lie is just watching old movies, old TV shows, reading old books and listening to old music. You know, I always had this theory that the peak of civilization. The peak of civilization. Anybody want to guess what year that was? You notice I say was, right? The peak of civilization. Shout out a guess. Anybody? What do you think that was?

1990.

Okay, 1990. Someone's listening to me. Or you guessed that. Yeah, I think it was 1990. And if you think about that, the 80s was this, you know, decade of prosperity. Of course, if you listen to the. The lefty media, they'll say it was unprecedented. Greed and terrible capitalism. That's so evil capitalism, you know, but yeah, 1990 after that is when the music really changed. And of course, we all know that quote from one of the Rothschild family members. I think it was like Baron Rothschild or something that said, let me control the money and I care not who makes the laws. Right? We all understand this as rebel capitalists, right? We understand how important the money is, right? When you control the money, you control so much. But I put a corollary on that. Let me control the music, and I care not who makes the money or the laws right now. I obviously care about those other things. But, you know, it's a quote, right? So got to give a little latitude to it. So things are changing fast. And I just encourage all of you to remind yourself and remind the people in your life of how life used to be. Quite literally, just two years ago and 10 years ago and 20 and 30 years ago, it has changed radically. The standard of living for the vast majority of people, except a small number of elite kleptocrats, has just declined massively. Now, technology hides this. Importing cheap goods from China hides this. Importing cheap labor from Mexico hides this. But when you really look at it and you peel the layers of the onion back, the standard of living has declined massively. Now, Covid, of course, Covid 1984 has given an excuse to lots of businesses to just massively cut back on services. Hotels don't clean your room every day anymore. Valet parking has all but disappeared in lots of places. I mean, this is called skimpflation. We've all heard of shrinkflation, right, where you just get less and less. But there's also skinflation, how you get another way. You get less and less. And we're all doing things for ourselves all the time nowadays. I mean, everything is do it yourself. Do you ever wonder why you have. I mean, I have a feeling you also suffer the same thing that I do. You have all these frustrations all day long because you're doing everything yourself. You're dealing with every do it yourself website site. All of this stuff used to be done by people that provided services to us. There is no more service. You go to a restaurant now and all these hip, cool new restaurants, you. You walk up to the counter and place your order, and then they give you a number. And maybe they bring your food, right? Or maybe you have to come up and get your food as they shout your name or number out. And so shrinkflation, skimpflation, this is all the standard of living that has just been declining and declining and declining. Yet at that same restaurant, you're expected to leave a tip, yet where was the service? Right? You know, it's just amazing. Just notice all of these things that didn't used to be that way, right? It's all just massively changed. Okay, so where Are we now? Well, this is housing inventory. So housing inventory. The experts will tell you that the normal amount of housing inventory. And by the way, this is from Altos Research. How many of you heard that podcast I did with him or saw the interview on YouTube on my channel? This is the housing inventory. We are literally starting the new year with a record low housing inventory. If you look at it on a per capita basis, housing inventory is literally one fifth of what it should be. So one metric would be this one. If you are thinking the bubble is about to burst or there's going to be a crash, you better see housing inventory increase by 500%.

Because a normal market is five times this amount of inventory. That's only normal, not a recession.

So if we're on the way to a 500% increase in housing market to have a balanced market, what's considered equilibrium, then that would be the sign of a bubble about to burst. So in terms of inventory, it's looking like prices are going to keep going up, up, up. Okay, it would be like this. And amazingly, now this is not a picture of Venezuela, right? We've all seen this in the US we certainly saw the toilet paper shortage.

But the shortage of everything. It would be like walking into the grocery store and seeing only one fifth of the shelves stocked. That's the housing picture today. But wait, there's more. As they say on late night TV when you can't sleep at 2am Right? But wait, there's more. This housing inventory does not really tell you how acute and how bad the story is. Why?

Because that's just overall inventory. If you look at the housing inventory in the entry level segment, it is insanely bad. And I don't have a number for you, but I'll just give you the anecdotal data. Okay? When, when our clients, I mean what my company, my real estate company does is we help clients buy rental properties nationwide. We help them build portfolios of rental properties. Some people come in, they buy one property, maybe they buy one a year, right? Some people come in and they buy dozens and dozens of properties. We've got one client now, I think he's up to about a hundred, one hundred and twenty some odd properties that he's purchased through us. He wants to get to 500 doors. Okay? And these are single family homes. The vast majority of the time there's some duplexes and fourplexes in there, but mostly single family homes. So the inventory is a significant problem. And in the rental housing market, that entry level market, that affordable whatever that means house. It is much, much worse than the 1/5 problem with inventory being 20% of what it should be. Okay, so there's just another way to look at it. But wait. The brilliant people at the government figured what they should do to solve the housing problem is instead of working on the supply side of the equation, because they're completely incompetent, they would work on the demand side. As if there's not enough housing demand.

Right? These brainiacs decided they would increase the loan limits on conventional loans. They just increased the loan limits by 18% on FHA loans. They increased the loan limits by over 15%. Now, it depends where it's different around the country by over 15%. Now the comparison, because life's most important question is compared to what the comparison is, what do they usually do on an annual basis in terms of increasing loan limits? Well, last year they raised the conventional loan limit about 7%. So it's more than double. In expensive areas of the country. A first time buyer can get an FHA owner occupied loan up to $1 million. Just about, it's slightly under, but about a million bucks and all they need is 3.5% down.

Now, years ago, when I started in the business, when I was four years.

Old.

The FHA loan limit was $91,000.

It's increased by a factor of more than 10. Okay, this is throwing gasoline on the fire. This is increasing demand. Where we don't need any more demand, we need more supply. Instead of incentivizing builders and relaxing zoning laws so they could build more houses, they're just increasing demand. They do the same thing with college tuition. These are the incompetent people running our world. Right? It's just incredible. Where are we? Well, last year the average home Equity according to CoreLogic, increased by about $57,000. So people have a lot more equity than they used to. That's over 31% increase, about $3.2 trillion in equity increase. Do you know that 40% of the homes in the country have no mortgage whatsoever? Now, if you follow my work, you know that that's a bad idea because it doesn't take advantage of inflation induced debt destruction. But hey, it does make the market far more stable and robust because people with no mortgage have a very difficult time getting into trouble and getting foreclosed on, right? It can happen. They can foreclose based on property taxes, for example, or HOA not paid.

Right?

And some of this equity, if we go into a bad recession or if we come into a housing crisis, Some of it could evaporate, there's no question about it. But just last year it was increased by 31%. Okay, there it is. State by state. So in the Socialist Republic of California, my home for most of my life, equity increased by $119,000. And you might think that's a big deal, but I want you to look at something. I want you to look at Florida, where I live now, the freest state in the country where they don't even know what a mask is. Okay?

It's just so funny because I, you know, I have people that work for my companies all around the country and some offshore around the world. And the Californians, they're like, well, what's it like there? I'm like, unless you go to the airport, it's normal. It's just normal life. What a concept, right? But proportionately, Florida real estate is so much less expensive that a $64,000 increase compared to what? Compared to the overall price of housing is dramatically more than $119,000 increase in the Socialist Republic of the California.

Right?

So just notice that. I just want you to notice that. Okay, let me give you some examples of what happened to a couple of our clients in the past year or so, give or take. Okay? Anyway, he purchased this property in Ocala, Florida just as George was becoming famous for all of his great whiteboard videos on the repo market and right before the planned release of COVID 1984. Okay? So that's when he purchased this property. Let's look at it in more detail. By the way, if you want to get these Performas, they're free. Remember that commercial, that old commercial, the Hair Club for Men? I'm going to need that pretty soon. Definitely a problem. You know, Obama, for eight years I listened to him talk about how there's no recession yet my, my forehead kept getting bigger and the recession, I swear it was happening. So you can get these Performas. The software is free. Just go to propertytracker.com and you can play with the numbers and put your own numbers in for your own scenarios on properties. It's a great analysis tool. And the Hair Club for Men reference was. I liked it so much I bought the company. Okay, So I own this now. It's a great piece of software. So he purchased this property back in November of 2019 for $149,900.

And now, well, last month. It's probably worth a little more now. Last month it was worth worth 231 9. We were selling the same exact Properties for that price. $231,900 a lot of our clients have purchased here. Okay, he put 25 down on the property. And this is not a theory, this is what really happened. Okay, now the second part of this performance shows you in red there. I've circled the cash on cash return of 16% annually. This is, these are annual numbers, numbers, by the way. And the Overall return of 246%. Okay, 246%. See, the thing about income, property and why it is the most historically proven asset class in the entire world and the most tax favored asset class in America is because it's a multi dimensional asset class. You don't earn your return from just one thing or two things. You earn your return from five or six things. And the software calculates that for you. So of course you get hopefully appreciation, you get positive cash flow, you get tax benefits, you get leverage and equity buildup. The tax benefit is depreciation, the most wonderful tax benefit ever, which is a phantom write off. Yeah, you love that, don't you? Isn't that, I mean, depreciation is the holy grail of tax benefit. Because. And here's why, when you buy a property, don't really consider it like you're buying one thing, consider it like you're buying two things. You're buying the land, and the land will always be there. So the IRS doesn't allow you to depreciate the land, but you're also buying the structure. The second thing, the house sitting on the land or the apartment sitting on the land. And the IRS has given an economic value, a lifespan to that structure. And with residential real estate, it is the shortest schedule. With commercial real estate, it's longer. It's like 11 or it's like 20 something percent longer on commercial real estate. But on residential real estate, it's 27.5 years. So the IRS, in their infinite wisdom of the math they do, which is basically dictated by a bunch of lobbyists who lobbied Congress, okay? They say that the house will fall to the ground in 27.5 years and be of no economic value whatsoever. So they let you depreciate. Instead of taking that deduction all at once, they let you depreciate 1 27th of it every year. And here's the beauty of that. The property could be producing positive cash flow, appreciating in value, and everything's going great. You think, wow, this property is a total winner. I got a huge return. I mean, Brandon got 246% let's go.

But the IRS, the way they look at it, they look at it like you're losing money, you're getting this depreciation and it's a phantom write off. It's a non cash write off. Mostly if you want a tax deduction, you have to write a check, you have to spend money. How many of you have your own business, right? So you know, you can have more business expenses. You could hire some people, spend some money on advertising, buy some equipment and you could deduct that. Or you could donate money to charity, right? And you could deduct that. But here you didn't write a check. In fact, it's so much better. The initial check you wrote to acquire the property was only maybe 20% of the value and the bank paid for 80% of it. So it's a pretty incredible asset class for sure. So that software is free. You can do all these performas yourself. And by the way, back in 2004 when I discovered this software and I got out of the traditional real estate business, in 2005, the deal finally closed where Coldwell Banker bought my traditional real estate company in Southern California. I was working on getting into the investment side of the business. My first love, way back then, and I discovered this software, Property Tracker. And one of the ways I got really good at understanding investments was by simply using this exact software and changing the numbers around and running different scenarios and saying, hey, what if the property has no vacancy in the first year? What if it has two months of vacancy in the first year and things don't go so well? How does that influence the overall return on investment? What if it appreciates it 3% or 6% or like last year, you know, depending on where you're talking about 17 or 20%, right? What happens? What if the rent is higher or lower? This is how you become a really good investor in analyzing a deal. And there's a great video that's only 30 minutes long and it's free. It's on the front page of my main website, Jason Hartman.com and you can get this video at Jason Hartman.com and it will lead you through analyzing a real estate deal. If you don't watch or learn or read anything else about real estate, just watch that free video, 30 minutes, really become an expert and it uses this performer to help you analyze it. Okay, so here's another example. This is David Nelson. He does live in the Socialist Republic of California, but is moving to Idaho like everybody else from California. So he bought this property, he and his Wife Gina bought this property just less than a year ago. I mean, just slightly less than a year ago. It's in Montgomery, Alabama. And here's how that deal looked. They paid $142,000 to buy it, and as of last month, it was worth 169,800. Okay, that's not like incredible like Brandon's deal, but, but here's what it looks like. And this is just a few days under a year. Okay? 14% cash on cash return and 108% overall return on investment. Because it's a multi dimensional asset class, you earn your return in many ways and use the software to really become an expert at understanding that. And watch that video@jasonhartman.com okay? Now I want to tell you that I may sound optimistic today, but I am under no delusion that we live in a real economy. It is a house of cards. It is a Ponzi scheme. And that's Charles Ponzi right there. Okay? That's the man himself, Charles Ponzi. Boy, study Charles Ponzi. He was an interesting character for sure. So the economy is fake news, but the real question is, compared to what? What other country doesn't have an economy that's fake news, that isn't a fiat system that isn't built on a house of cards?

So in comparison, I think the US Is in a very enviable position. And frankly, I think it's going to maintain that position for a long, long time. People are welcome to disagree with me. Many think, oh, China's going to take over the world. And hey, China's making some good moves. And that's been an impressive story. But China has a giant, giant demographic problem that will start to really be felt in 10 to 15 years. So just notice something.

You cannot have a country without people. Tell that to Japan, tell it to Russia, and tell it to Western Europe. Actually tell it to the Western world in general, which has essentially been committing suicide for decades by not replacing itself. Fertility rates in Western Europe are like 1.1%. In some countries, just to break even, to maintain the current population, every woman has to have 2.1 kids. That's homeostasis. That maintains the rate. Okay? So go home and get busy and have some kids. Okay? That may be the best advice I.

Gave you all day.

Huh?

All right, so the Western world is going away. Russia's going away. China is on its way to going away due to their idiotic one child policy. They have a lot of single males that, that will never have a chance of Getting married in Japan, it is so weird. And by the way, I love Japan. I visited Japan years ago with Young Entrepreneurs Organization. What a great place. The people are so polite. It's just such a neat country. But in Japan, it is so weird that women are having weddings without a husband.

Yeah.

No groom, not even a robot.

They're buying a dress, they're hiring a photographer and having a party.

Like Dennis Rodman marrying himself. Remember that? Okay. Yeah. That's what it is. That is just super weird. It's crazy. It's really weird. So, look, our economy is a house of cards. It's a fiat system. It can't last forever. But the question is, how long can it last? I would bet you it can last a lot longer than you think. I would bet you that with 12 aircraft carriers and the largest military the human race has ever known.

And the biggest brand in the world and the choicest piece of geography in the world, the United States, separated by oceans.

Protected, can last a very long time. Okay, the guy that founded Stratfor, read his book, the next 10 years. And then even better yet, read his other book, the Next Hundred Years. The US Is going to control the seas. And when you control the Navy, you control the world pretty much. You can project power anywhere on planet Earth very, very quickly. So I get it about all the bad things. We're definitely in decline, but that decline can take a lot longer than we can live. Okay? So, you know, just understand that comparison. That's all I want to say about that. Okay.

All right.

So we live in a kleptocracy. Sadly, it has become an environment where the elites, whether they be the politicians or the corporations who are in bed with them, the lobbyists, they are screwing the citizens. And ever. You know, I'd say one of the big moves toward that was Bill Clinton and NAFTA and letting China into the wto, okay, these were, like, big steps towards selling America down the river. And of course, they did these things because they could hide real inflation. That's how they hide real inflation, is by importing cheap labor and importing cheap products. And that is obviously changing in the geopolitical environment we're in. But don't worry, we can learn from these people, these kleptocrats, because as Jim Rohn, one of my great mentors at age 17 that I discovered who changed my life, he said, success leaves clues. And these great investors, these elites, we can learn from them. Just look at the investment returns of some of these elites, and let's see if we can duplicate them. Let's see if Brandon or David, the examples I just gave you, could beat them and beat their returns. Here we go. Nancy Pelosi's number one.

Yeah, she beats every hedge fund manager, everybody George interviews on his rebel capitalist show. Nancy Pelosi is by far the best investor of all because of course she has insider trading knowledge, right? 69%. And by the way, follow this Twitter. It's pretty interesting. This is the Nancy Tracker.

It posts all of her trades. So if you want to learn how to be a great investor, Nancy Pelosi is your model. She's a criminal. I mean, this is unbelievable, this woman, and she makes no bones about it. I mean, she just doesn't apologize, has no remorse.

Yeah, you could get $193,000 a year salary and have a net worth of almost 200 million bucks. That ain't bad. That is pretty good math. Good job. And we'll be back with a lot more on this topic on our next episode.

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