1813: Russian Ruble Collapse, Harry Dent Predicts Crash, Sanctions, Support Ukraine via Airbnb, Contest Announcement

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Thank you, Jason. I would not have as much money today if it wasn't for you. You know, Sissy and I both made a ton of money and you know, thanks to you and your guidance and your show and everything, it's been great. And now cash flow for all your clients on top of not only appreciation, but cash flow. You made a lot of people rich, my friend. You're a good man. Thank you, Jason.

Welcome to the Creating wealth show with Jason Hartman. You're about to learn a new slant on investing, some exciting techniques and fresh new approaches to the world's most historically proven asset class that will enable you to create more wealth and freedom than you ever thought possible. Jason is a genuine, self made multimillionaire who's actually been there and done it. He's a successful investor, lender, developer and entrepreneur who's owned properties in 11 states, had hundreds of tenants, and been involved in thousands of real estate transactions. This program will help you follow in Jason's footsteps on the road to your Financial Independence Day. You really can do it. And now here's your host, Jason Hartman with the complete solution for real estate investors.

Welcome to our listeners from 189 countries worldwide. Our guest today will be a returning guest. He's been on the show many times and that is Harry Dent, author of many, many books and the guy who's been predicting some doom and gloom for quite a while. This time he might actually be right. Some of his predictions have been very accurate and some have been famously wrong. Just wrong. So we'll get to that in a mom. And we're going to have Harry here again with us on the next episode as well, because we did a long interview. So first let's dive into the absolutely terrible crisis going on in Ukraine and the invasion by Russia and what that means economically, what it means to the housing market. And also talk about how you can help. This is a unique idea, a unique way to help with the crisis and help with the war victims. And I really shouldn't say war victims, I would just say victims of the invasion. And I think the best thing we can hope for out of this is that there will be a serious uprising against Vladimir Putin because these oligarchs will possibly turn against him. And certainly the Russian population, which sadly has to suffer with the bad decisions of its leader, will turn against him as well. So let's hope for that. But let's get into it. So the ruble has depreciated like crazy. You already know this, and this was just four days after the invasion. So it is worse now, right? It's even worse. But can you imagine the absolute tragedy that is unfolding in Russia with the people who are already struggling to see their currency being devalued so significantly and so so quickly? It is absolutely awful. And we should have a lot of compassion for the Russian people because again, I don't think very many of them are in support of this invasion. I just don't think Putin has the support of the people. So the rubles depreciating inflation and much higher interest rates in Russia, you saw that they went from 9% to 20% literally in one day. Talk about a shock to the system. Absolute, huge shock to the system. But one of the parts I am happy to see, although I think philosophically it sets a very dangerous precedent, and that is this coordinated global attack on the Russian oligarchs. Now what's interesting, and I don't know if you followed the way this worked out when the Soviet Union disbanded starting in the late 80s, but to the early 90s, and how these Russian oligarchs were able to buy the then privatizing businesses that were formerly run by the Soviets. They were able to buy them, but the interesting thing is most of them financed those purchases with Western money. Now, you know, that's fair. I mean, the west wanted to see the economy privatized, but only a small number of people that were connected and on the inside. And of course the vast majority of them engaged in all sorts of corruption, I am sure, although I'm no expert on this, they were able to buy these Russian businesses, right? Or these Soviet businesses, I should say, and finance them with Western debt, with Western bank money. Right. And so they became fabulously rich beyond, really beyond comprehension. And now we have seen countries from all over the world coordinating ways to simply take their wealth. You've probably seen in the news the seizures of oligarch yachts. There was one that was on film. I, I don't know if Bloomberg released that story. I think I saw it the other day, and that's encouraging. But at the same time, we should be very worried about that precedent. Right? And I think it's, it's fair to view this from both sides. And the idea that governments can just go and seize assets like that and literally change laws without warning is a pretty dangerous idea. And of course, we've seen this kind of thing under the guise of money laundering and so forth. And, and listen, I'm not defending these oligarchs for a moment. And I'm also not defending the governments either, because I think. I think, again, we've got to see this from both perspectives, right? Whenever you see government's abuse of power, you gotta think you might be next, right? And we've done shows before about civil forfeiture. And, you know, these little old ladies, like this little old lad that owned a restaurant for many, many years, didn't accept credit cards and was a cash only business and would make deposits every day or so of the money the restaurant took in. And they accused this woman of illegal structuring with these deposits and seized her assets and tied them up for, you know, years and absolute terrible abuses of this stuff. But, hey, these are exceptional times and I have a feeling these oligarchs deserve it. And look, hopefully they will put pressure on Putin to stop his evil ways. So we'll see how this all pans out. But, you know, we've got to always realize there's. There's two sides to everything, right? But you might have seen this in the news, and I thought it was really interesting. And I actually did it myself today. I made a donation directly to a Ukrainian Airbnb host. And what I did is I went on Airbnb and I booked an apartment in Kiev and I did this. And what was interesting to me about this is there was actually only one night available over the next month. I couldn't believe it. You know, I mean, just one night was available. So I booked it right away. And it's interesting because Airbnb sent me the reservation confirmation email. And if you look on the slide, if you're seeing this visually here on one of the video platforms, it says you're going to Kiev. Well, I'm certainly not going, but I just basically made a donation and I told the host I wasn't coming. It was simply a donation. And she replied right away saying, thank you for helping out. And I wished her the best in these absolutely tragic times. But Airbnb Brian Chesky, the co founder, tweeted that in 48 hours, 61, 406 nights have been booked in Ukraine. That's $1.9 million going to hosts of Airbnb properties in need. Then he later tweeted that they would not be taking any fees. So thank you, that's good. Other ways you can do this is through platforms like Upwork or Fiverr. There's all kinds of ways you can make direct donations. So, you know, that it's going to the actual people rather than some charity that's taking a bunch off the top. You know, this is really like my commandment number three, thou shalt maintain control. Because when you are not a direct investor or a direct donor, right? We talk about this in real estate, being a direct investor. And that's why we love just buying and owning the properties directly. Because we decide what to buy, where to buy, when to buy, how to finance the property, how much to rent it for, who to rent it to. And we make all those decisions because we are a direct investor and we're not relinquishing control to somebody else. You know, some nice guy wearing a nice suit that went to a great college, that works for Merrill lynch or whatever, right? Some financial advisor who is taking a big cut off the top, but also directing your money, your hard earned money to some corporation where the board of directors and the executives and the CEO, they're paying themselves huge bonuses. They're skimming a lot of the profits off the top before the investors get meager returns. So remember, when you relinquish control, whether it be on a charitable donation or an investment, you leave yourself susceptible to three major problems. Number one, you might be investing with a crook. Obviously we're all familiar with Bernie Madoff and Enron and WorldCom and Global Crossing and all of the scandals on Wall street and there's lots of scandals in syndications or funds. If you've ever watched that great show on CNBC called American Greed, you know virtually every single story they profile of these crooks have a few things in common. Number one, they always raised money and pooled it into an investment or a theoretical investment. Number two, they were always unusually generous and really nice people. Hey, it's easy to be generous with ill gotten money that you obtained through criminal activities, right? There are certain commonalities you notice if you've watched that great show American Greed on on cnbc, I'd really recommend it. But when you're charitable, you want to be a direct donor as much as possible. And when you're investing, you also want to be a direct investor. Check out my 10 commandments of successful investing. On any of my podcast episodes go to Jason hartman.com, type in Ten Commandments. You'll see lots of those shows come up. And if you just follow those 10 things, you will really keep yourself out of trouble when it comes to investing. So foreigners purchasing American asset backed securities. The reason I want to talk about this is during times of trouble and uncertainty around the world certainly Russia's invasion of Ukraine has created tons of uncertainty. Very scary times. The threat of nuclear war has increased dramatically. The threat of World War three has increased dramatically. This is scary stuff. We are living in uncertain times. But throughout history, or at least throughout modern history, the brinks truck of the world, the safe place in the world where capital always goes, has been the United States because it has good rule of law, stable government, certainly not without its problems, certainly not without its evils. The US is far from perfect, no question about it. But the question is always, as I say, compared to what? Compared to what other place can capital go where it will be treated better? Remember, money always goes where it's treated best. And that is certainly true. So we look at the asset backed securities purchases in the US and by the way, I think I mentioned this on one of the episodes last week, but did you know that our Federal Reserve owns 24% of all U.S. mortgages? That is absolutely shocking. Wow, that is shocking. So again, if you want to get back at the Fed and you want to end the Fed, you know, there's this huge movement to end the Fed. Use my inflation induced debt destruction technique because you can borrow money on those mortgages. There's a 25% chance your mortgage will be held by the Fed and you're going to pay it back in cheaper dollars as they inflate away not only your debt but the country's debt and all sorts of debt. Right? That's inflation induced debt destruction. Fantastic trademark technique that I have been talking about for many, many years. So use that to your advantage. But look at these foreign holdings. Look at the foreign countries who think American assets are the safest place to put their money, right? So over one and a half trillion dollars and this is increasing in these asset backed securities in the US and Japan being the number one investor, right? They're the number one. But Taiwan is second. So Japan's got 332 billion in America in these asset backed securities. Taiwan 245 billion. And then of course China, right? They want to be an investor in the U.S. 217 billion. And then we've got the tax havens, right? You know, Cayman islands of course, 139 billion. And our friends to the north, Canada, $108 billion. So again, capital always looks for the safe place in times of uncertainty. And I would venture to guess that this will increase dramatically after the uncertainty going on in Europe and the fear of contagion of this terrible, terrible, tragic war spreading. Okay, here is something interesting and you know, you look at the absolutely perverse things that go on in our world and in our government. I blame our president, our current administration for a lot of this and increasing Russia's ability to finance this war when it simply doesn't have to. You know, why trade with a tyrannical foreign power when you don't need to? When you can simply buy or create the assets you need, the products you need in your own country? Why would you give this money to fund an evil empire? Right? And listen, I don't think Russia is an evil empire. You know, I'm kind of being dramatic when I say that, but I think their leader is obviously a tyrant. So hopefully his reign will end soon. But it definitely should be a concern that he is desperate to leave his mark on history. But listen to this.

Biden's plan, it sounded really familiar. To sum it up, he wants to make America great again.

Just look around and you'll see an amazing story. The rebirth of pride that comes from stamping products made in America. We'll buy America. We're going to do it by buying America. We'll create good jobs for millions of Americans. Buy American products.

Support American jobs.

Those are all lies. Joe Biden has spent his entire career sending American jobs and factories to China and Mexico. And don't forget, he's the one who killed the Keystone pipeline on his very first day in office. Joe Biden would rather buy oil from Russia instead of our friends in Canada. If Biden really wanted to hurt Putin, he'd make America energy independent. It's simple. Just stop paying our enemy for the thing we have already here. Is Biden willing to sacrifice our national security and drive up costs for Americans just so he doesn't make AOC mad? Who cares? She's mad.

Anyway.

It definitely was a lost opportunity because the entire country does support. There is profound bipartisan support to.

A long term shift away from fossil fuels. We need to hear more about our transition to clean energy. We shouldn't be relying on fossil fuels to begin with.

Senator John Kennedy joins me now. Your reaction, Senator?

I find President Biden's new energy policy to be surreal.

America has the most powerful economy in all of human history. It takes a lot of energy to run it. 80% of our energy comes from oil and gas. We produce a lot of that oil and gas. For years, for decades, we've worked and become energy independent. Now President Biden wants to change all that. He wants us to stop producing oil and gas, give up our energy independence. And his new policy is that we should buy oil and gas from foreign countries that hate us, like Russia. So those foreign countries will have more money to buy weapons to try to kill us. And that's this new policy.

I will wait until you stop laughing.

Unless you identify as an idiot. You can, you can see the national security implications of this. So why, you ask, is the president doing this? Because he wants to make happy the woke neo socialist cupcakes that have taken over the Democratic Party. And in doing so.

Okay, we'll leave it at that. I just thought that was a funny line. Oh, gosh, I tell you, it's funny. Funny. But anyway, yeah, you know, it's just absolutely ridiculous that you would try to make the country weaker your first day on the job. You kill the Keystone pipeline. So we're dependent on these rogue leaders who were basically financing. I mean, I mean, it's just absolutely ridiculous. Okay, so we'll get to some of this other stuff on our next episode. We've got to get to our guest, Harry Dent. But what I want to say before we get to Harry Dent is this. We've got a new thing. You're gonna like it. Okay, so we are going to weekly, until further notice, weekly, have a giveaway of two $50Amazon gift cards. And all you need to do, we so appreciate all of your participation in our stuff is Simply on our YouTube channel. Comment and like. And we will pick randomly because there is a. A tool we use for this that does a random pick of comments on our YouTube videos. And so we're going to pick one every week and give away a $50Amazon gift card. Well, that's what it is for now. But if you got suggestions for other prizes, we're open to them right now. It'll be a 50Amazon gift card. And the condition is, though, you have to claim your prize within a month because if you don't claim your prize, we're going to announce you on the show. But if you don't claim your prize, you know, you can't claim it three months later and say, hey, I won that one. No, we're gonna just go on to the next winner. Okay, so you got to be listening. Sure. You claim your prize. So YouTube commenters and YouTube likers just comment. The more you comment, the better your chances of winning. And I mean, listen, we don't have that many comments, so your odds are pretty darn good. And then Apple, we're gonna pick one of the reviews. And so we will pick a review from Apple Podcast, formerly itunes, once a week, and we will give away two 50 gift cards and we'll announce them on the show. So go and do that right away. And you know, you can say whatever you want. Comment doesn't have to be you agree with us. You don't have to make a good review or anything. Just, you know, make a review on Apple podcast comments on YouTube and we will pick winners who get a $50Amazon gift card. Okay. We're gonna pick two every week. One from each one from YouTube, one from Apple Podcasts. Okay. So without further ado, let's get to our guest today and we'll do part one of author and economist Harry Dent.

It is my pleasure to welcome Harry Dent back to the show. I think he's been on maybe a dozen times now, and it's great to have him. He's coming to us from his home in Puerto Rico where the taxes are low and we want to get an update on Zero Hour, his latest book, as well as the demographic cliff, and also talk, of course, about this crazy overheated economy and all the shortages. The last time we saw Harry was about a year and a half ago when he spoke at our online virtual event for empowered investor. So it's great to have him back. Harry, welcome. How are you doing?

Nice to be back, Jason.

It's good to have you. Good to have you. What is the latest? We are living in crazy times, aren't we?

We are, you know, very short story. We had the greatest boom in history, which I was one of the few to call back in the 80s when it was just getting going because the baby boom was going to grow up, earn and spend money. And the largest generation in history was basically a slam dunk. But it's not the type of thing economists study says we're going to see the greatest boom in history. But I also said it's going to peak by late 2007, which it did. And we went into the worst downturn since the Great Depression in 2008. Well, what happened that the Federal Reserve and the central banks around the world just panicked because it did. Look, Ben Bernanke, I think was the chairman back then. He's like, oh my God, I studied the Great Depression. Looks just like it. And they just have been printing money nonstop ever since. So we have the most perverted economy in history. We've been running on total money printing. And of course, it takes exponentially more to keep a debt economy going again. My research showed from the beginning that when the baby boom peaked in 2007, after this great boom starting in 83, that we would see a 14 year sideways movement slowing and we wouldn't be coming out of it until about 20, 23, 24 just ahead now. But what do we have? Stocks at all time highs because they keep pumping up the economy. And that money that they're printing, they're not sending us checks in the mail, which would be a better thing to do. And if you're going to irresponsibly print money and hype up economy, they're just buying bonds with it and injecting that money into the financial markets, which creates the greatest bubble in stocks and financial assets. And that favors the rich even more than this great boom was favoring the rich over to everyday people. So we have greater income inequality. We had bubbles into 2000, the first tech bubble, second bubble into 2021 here, but we also had a minor one into the baby boom top in 2007. The point is this final bubble here, 120% artificial, nothing natural. No demographic trends, no technological trends. All of my cycles on those, which are very predictable and definable, have peaked. And so we're running on money printing alone. And they're having to print more and more to keep this going. And I am showing signs right now that we may be finally peaking in this artificial stock bubble, which will be studied in history for decades. Believe me, they're going to go, what were they smoking here? To think that once an economy went to a downturn after a major generational surge in spending, that you can just print money and keep it alive on nothing.

I couldn't agree more. And Harry, you know, the wealth transfer that is happening right now is absolutely staggering, isn't it? And like you alluded to, if they want to print money, the least they could do is just send everybody a check that would be much more equal.

Send it to everyday people because it is creating merely, it's creating a modest economic boom because we're just countering a downturn. But it's primarily creating the greatest financial asset bubble in history. And of course, the top 20% control 88% of the assets. And top 50%, 2% control 50% of the financial assets. So it's really creating greater imbalance just to keep something going because everybody's scared, oh, if we have a recession, things will fall apart. And you know what the answer to that is? Yes, they will. They will fall apart like they did in two days.

They'll fall apart and rebuild though, you.

Know, that's what happens. See, the economy is smarter than economists. The economy knows how to repair itself. When it gets out of balance, what economists are saying, oh, we fostered a bubble even more than it would have been after the baby booms and stuff. And now we don't want it to burst because it's going to make us look horrible. Well, it will, but the economy knows how to rebalance. Get rid of bad debts, get rid of zombie companies. We have the greatest debt bubble in history. All types of bad debts out there and 31% zombie companies that can't pay their debt service, which are only being kept alive by them keeping this dead economy alive. So this, this I call it. I was about to name my last book the greatest crime in modern history. The central banks would think that they're smarter than the economy. Instead of letting the economy weed out all this debt and excesses in the 20089 downturn, which should have lasted into 2010, more like 1929-32 crash. It should have been deeper, last longer. That would have purged all these debts and zombie companies and we could have come out as healthy. Instead they've just kept the debt economy going on nothing but printed money. And now we're going to have to have a greater crash years later. And I think it's starting now. I think we're very likely in the first crash of this big crash, which really should have come earlier. And if so, we're going to see a lot of Tom. A lot steeper fall just ahead. If not, we might see one more new high and then see such a crash. But the way you're going to know this bubble's finally over. When you see stocks down and then listen to this, over 40%, probably closer to 50% in less than three months. That's the only way. And I've studied this in history to tell when a bubbles burst because bubbles just go with all this enthusiasm and they get crazy. But that, that, that first crash, when it's that steep that soon, it tells you it's over. I think we may already be in that crash and if we are, stocks are going to be a lot lower by the end of March. If not, we're gonna see this first crash I think by mid this year at the latest. I think we're probably in it right now.

Yeah, well, the stock market is definitely showing signs of distress. No question about it. Harry, take us through this chart we have on the screen, but just note that some people are listening on audio only and not seeing the video. So what is it telling us? This is Dow Jones, Dow Jones Internet Composite Index versus leading stock Amazon what does that mean?

This is the. On top is the blue is the Internet index going back in the late 90s when we had the first tech bubble and Amazon being the lead stock. And I'm comparing that today to kind of the Nasdaq and then the leading parts sector, which is now crypto just emerging. So what you get is, you get this chart is showing back in the late 90s, the first bubble, how we had a bubble in the overall Internet index, which was the leading part of the NASDAQ back then, like cryptos today. And then the red line here is showing Amazon, which was the leading dot com. So what I do today is I say, look, this has happened before. We had the first tech bubble from 95 into early 2000. It was led by the Nasdaq. And the latest stage was when the dot com people don't realize Amazon was just, just went public, I think it was in 1997 and became something in 98. And so it was one of the biggest bubbly stocks like the cryptos today. And, and it was wildly overvalued because they thought it was going to grow to the moon. And then the whole thing collapsed. We're showing here how the first bubble formed, led by the Internet sector of the NASDAQ and the stock market. And then Amazon is the leading stock there and they crashed. The point here, Jason, of this chart, that first crash out of what I call the baby bubble, that was the baby bubble of the Internet stocks, okay? The first crash after that baby bubble was 94% for the leading index stock, Amazon, 95% for the entire Internet index, and it was 78% for the broader NASDAQ. People forget that, okay? That happened in good demographic times. And then after the crash, you weed down to the winners and then you have a boom that lasts for many, many years. And that Internet boom is now, now peaking in 2021, early 2022. And while this is happening, I'm saying the same thing. We go back, that's happening. Bitcoin is emerging, is like the Amazon back then and the crypto sector, which is not in the index now, it's not in the NASDAQ like the Internet stocks were, because it's considered something different. Because they're not stocks, they're coins. Listen up. They're securities. Coins were the biggest trick in history to be able to launch companies with no launching costs. So a great innovation, by the way, to the crypto sector.

And by the way, Harry, I just, I just want to ask, you know, I don't think I've ever talked with you, at least not much about crypto in all the years I've known you generally. What do you think of the crypto movement? Bitcoin, et cetera.

Okay, I said I just got to.

Take that diversion for a second.

Yeah, it's the next. I've been saying this for years. It's the next big thing, but it's in its baby early stage and that's when stocks get valued the most. But you got a lot of new company growing faster over the markets, you know, with the whole world, and it's going to penetrate everywhere and then they get over by and you know, there's 40,000 coins out there. Why? Because you can start a company on a coin without the IPO cost of starting a real company. Okay, so this is even more crazy. All these coins, all these crypto companies are launched and they're not going to have 40,000 coins in crypto companies. Years from now you're going to have several, just like anything that's going to shake down to the real winners like the Internet did. So I'm comparing apples to apples. I'm not just comparing stocks and the one boom to another. I'm comparing stocks in the baby bubble of an early stage movement and every 45 year technology cycle. And that's the cycle there, demographics are about generations, about every 40 years, 39 to be more precise.

Right.

And by the way, five years, you get two of these. So, so, so Internet was the first one and crypto is the second one. And the same thing's gonna happen, a baby bubble, a burst when, when I, you know how many crypto people I know down here, they're all moving down to Puerto Rico. Of course, they're in La La land. They, I'm, I'm a big fan of crypto, but I say you're gonna have this 95% birth. And they're like, harry, that's not possible. I'm like, you know, I go like this.

Well, we'll see.

God bless your souls, because you're going to be shocked when this is what history says happens at this baby bubble stage. And then you get what I call the longer daddy bubble or boom. So again, this is apples to apples. You can't compare the crypto to any other stock boom or something. You have to compare it to the last tech bubble, which was the Internet stocks when they were baby babies in their baby bubble and Amazon was a nothing burger selling mostly books.

Okay, Harry, I want to ask you before we go further in this interview about Just some of your core principles. I started following your work in the late 90s and I absolutely loved it because, you know, it's very easy to predict how old the population is going to be in 10, 20, 30, 40 years. Right? So can you just explain to people, you know, maybe a couple of your core concepts real quick? Like the S curve. You say a Generation is about 40 years, but most demographers would say, you know, it's, it's 25 years or so. Why do you differ on that? Just, just explain real quickly some of your core things, if you would.

Okay, number one, what I look at, I don't look at government policies. Hey, not that it doesn't have an impact, but that's shorter term, right? And more superficial. What really drives our economy throughout history is people who gain skills, grow up from teenagers who do nothing but cost parents and economy money and become more productive citizens as they age, get married, have kids, spend more money. And I was the first one to put a specific age on that. The peak in spending in 46 years, right? 46 years old. Now that's an important number because up until 20, when they enter the workforce, that's the average, precise, I'm not an estimate average age of workforce entry where people actually produce something and contribute for the first time in their life. Economy to 46 is the spending cycle, the rising spending cycle of the average person. Now richer people spend a little later and go to school a little longer and all this stuff, but that's the average. So I developed back in the mid-80s, the first great leading indicator for the economy that goes decades in advance. Very simple, 46 year lag on the birth index after I adjust for immigrants. And I can adjust. I know the age of immigrants coming to this country. So I can take the immigrant curve and throw them to when they're born after they're here. And I have an immigration adjusted birth index. Move that forward 46 years. Now it's 47, okay, but in this last boom, it was 46. That would have told you greatest boom in history, 1983 to 2007. And then the baby boomers peak in their collective spending and we slow down for 14 years until the millennials, a smaller generation relatively comes along and has their boom from 2023, 24 into 2037, a shorter, less.

Strong boom. So this is the greatest boom in history. It was already foretelled on a 46 year life. Economists look at me and say, harry, that's too simple. I'm like, I look at them and say, Sorry, you don't understand the economy. People are more important than all the stupid, superficial, reactive government policies. You guys spend all your time.

I agree with you.

So, you know, people first, technologies in business. Technology, that's what this 40. So there's about every. And I don't care what somebody says, 25 years. The peak in generation cycles were 29, 19, 29, 68 and 2007. Those are 39 years apart to the dot. Okay? Technology cycles are 45 years. That's something took me a long time to pin down. And the technologies make us all more productive. Okay. I mean, what has the Internet done? I mean, I can sit there and do presentations around the world and talk to you and stuff. You know, right from my, my home office. I don't have to travel anywhere. I don't, you know, this is, this is the type of things that make us all more productive. That's a 45 year cycle. The demographic cycle peaked in late 2007, and we went into a deep downturn, as we did in the early 30s after a generation peak there and as we did into the 70s after the Bob Hope generation peak. But the technology cycle only peaked recently around late 2019, early 2020. So since in the last few years, both of these most important cycles that actually drive our economy from the bottoms up, regardless of government policy, you think people are going to spend that much differently? Whether they make this little law or that, that or blah, blah, blah.

No.

People do what it takes to raise their kids and get them into Harvard or whatever, whatever their goal.

So if we look at what happened historically, we saw the baby boomers and how much massive impact they had on the economy as the, at the time, the largest demographic cohort of about 76 million, give or take, Americans. Right. And now we see the millennials and the oldest millennials about 41 years old now, I guess. And so if the peak spending cycle is 46 years, which I would agree with, we've got millennials moving into that time frame. Are we going to have a boom or are millennials just too poor? And it's different this time.

It's a collective thing, Jason, that this 46 year lag is one of these simple intuitive indicators that takes an account a lot. Baby boomers started entering back in the, you know, in the 60s or something. Okay. But they didn't have enough to have collective power impact. Millennials still have not fully entered in the millennials was a shorter surge in births that which did not go to new peaks after that and was supplemented by immigrants which got cut off by our own government policies. The millennial boom on that same now 47 year lag is 2024 through 2037. It's a shorter surge. It's not as powerful and strong as the baby boomers. There's a lot of them, but only because they were born from higher levels later and over a longer period of time. Just look at the surge that's caused by rising spending of rising numbers of people. And their boom is shorter. 2024 to 2037. And the problem we have now, these poor millennials, because the baby boom had this giant debt bubble and governments won't let these debts and zombie companies get cleared out. They're never going to have a boom that's fair to them because we're going to carry all this debt and zombie companies with it. So we need. Economists don't understand this. We need recessions, you idiots. Recessions clear out the dead wood. God wasn't stupid. We have booms and busts. We have dark and light that you see this duality and everything there is, okay. We have men and women because they're different. These recession. You don't say we can't have a recession. And if you say that, then you do not understand how the economy works, period.

The powers that be don't want to. Don't want to take the tough medicine anymore. There's no Paul Volcker around. So what do we do? But tell us what's going to happen? Like that's what we want to know. What's next about this?

All you can do is get out of the way when the bubble's about to burst. I've been studying this bubble. I predicted the first one not only in 2000. I predicted that boom would peak in the 1980s decades because it was set in stone and governments were not manipulating the economy nearly this actively. Okay, so it just happened. Well, they've been fighting ever since. Well, it keeps taking more. You know, they printed three and a half trillion after the 2008 recession in the early stages to get us out of that funk. But they printed four and a half trillion just since.

This is how it's taking more and more. That's the.

It's insane. Yeah.

That much just to keep us barely growing. Tom and I look in the stock charts and I'm saying this, this stock chart looks like it is peaking right here, January 4th. I'll tell you what I look for, Jason, for a long term peak to confirm it beyond factors when I don't have these demographics working because the Governments have suppressed it. I look for more and more sectors to peak and narrow down to the largest cap sectors down. The last one to peak was no was November 22nd for the NASDAQ. And then the S&P 500, the largest large cap, safest kind of sector in January 4th and before that I've got 12 major stock indices and sectors in global that peaked in a succession saying this is a major top. And it likely peaked on January 4th when the last major index finally peaked. We're now down, I think 18% on the NASDAQ, maybe 12% on the S and P. This has to go a little farther to show that it's really that first crash and it's going to happen very quickly. That does not mark my words on that. It is so this bubble is over and when bubbles crash, there is and mark my words, and there's no soft landing ever in history after.

Okay, I appreciate the passion, but Harry, we I want to get to some specifics. So first off, I know you have a few other charts. I want to make sure you share them them. So let's look at those and talk about them. But the question is, what is going to happen rather than just saying, you know, bubble's gonna pop. Right. Tell us like when. I mean, you talked about 2024, but that seemed like this would be a positive time because the millennials would start to really kick in the spending which will boost up the economy. But I guess that's not the case.

So the economy is vulnerable into late 2023. So we're still here. And it gets weaker. Okay. The economy's only gotten weaker since that peak in 2007. I also projected decades before it happened, that the weakest part of this economy, this downturn at the baby boomers, would be 2020-23. That's always been my bottom projection. Late 2022 for stocks, 2023 for the economy. Now that we've push this off so far, that's probably going to come a little later, but not a lot. So we're still in a week period. And what this first chart shows, this is what happens when a baby bubble and a daddy bubble, the NASDAQ broader and the baby bubble now in crypto peak together. It's not a 20%, 30%, 50%, 70%. It's a 90 some percent crash in the leading sectors and 80% in the broader thing.

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