1814: Pain at the Pump as Gas Prices Soar! Harry Dent Predicts Crash Part 2

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Welcome to episode 1814. 1814. And welcome to our listeners from 189 countries worldwide. We're so happy to have you today. And we have got some important stuff to cover before we get to part two of our guest, Harry Dent. Today, economist and author Harry Dental. Harry tells a good joke that I like. He says that the study of economics was created to make astrology look credible. I like that one. We gotta have a little levity in these hard times and you know, but I, I don't know, sometimes astrology is kind of credible. Okay, I know half of you are thinking, okay, Jason, you're out of your mind, but haven't you ever read your horoscope? I don't mean the dopey daily horoscope thing, but just what a certain sign is. Like, you know, if you think about it, it is the oldest personality assessment in the world. Right. I just think it's kind of interesting that I can read what is a Libra like, and that is definitely not what a Gemini is like. They're different and kind of pretty accurate, actually. So interesting. Okay, enough of that. Not that I'm like, you know, claiming this is any accurate great thing or anything. It's just, I don't know why I got off on that tangent. All right, we're going through tough times, folks. I'm getting a little punchy and this is a scary time in the world. No question about it. Are we on, on the verge of World War iii? Hopefully not. Are we on the verge of crazy Putin using a nuke? Hopefully not. But remember, in the world of warfare, there are many new weapons that are incredibly powerful and they're non nuclear. And there are also tactical nukes. So this is pretty scary stuff. I mean, I so wish NATO or the UN would do a no fly zone over Ukraine because it's just odd that you gotta, you gotta really wonder what's going on. I mean, is Russia really this bad at logistics or is it the Russian troops that are considering desertion? Hopefully there will be a lot of deserters or are they self sabotaging? You know, there have been stories about that putting holes in their own fuel tanks to slow the convoy, but it's amazing that we haven't really seen much Russian air power. I, I mean, I don't know. What do you think? Leave a comment below and tell me what you think about this because I just don't know what to make of this. I've spent dozens and dozens of hours reading and watching things and studying this absolutely horrific events as they unfold. But there's a lot of mysteries, a lot of things that just don't really make any sense and I, I wonder, I really wonder what's going on. Okay, let's get into some things from our friends at the Wall Street Journal. Some interesting reports I want to share with you and comment before we get to part two of Harry Dent today. So first off, the Federal Reserve, right? Good old J. Powell, Jerome Powell said that the Ukraine war is creating risk of higher inflation. Well, duh, I mean, I don't think that's a risk, I think that's a certainty. But he also might be using that as a bit of an excuse, right? Looking to use that as a scapegoat for his own promiscuity. Yeah, there's a word for you in terms of his loose money policies, monetary policies, right? And now he'll have an excuse to back up his. Well, inflation was transitory, but then Ukraine happened, right? So who knows? It's like three dimensional chess, conspiracy theories, nobody really knows the reality. Right. But certainly I think this is very much an inflationary pressure situation. You know, when you've got one of the world's top energy producers, Russia, of course, and you've got one of the biggest or the biggest wheat producer, Ukraine, I mean, it's just a huge deal. This is bad, bad, bad for all concerns about inflation, no question. And you've got just the war machine itself that destroys things, that creates more demand on all of the materials needed to wage war and all of the materials needed to rebuild after war. Just think how many construction materials will be needed to rebuild Ukraine, hopefully it's not being rebuilt by the Russians. Well, hopefully the Russians are paying for it, but but hopefully it's not under their control after this all ends, it's under the control of the Ukrainian people. But we will see how this all pans out. It's just, it's very upsetting, very depressing to say the least. But Venezuela, this is interesting. Venezuela is pushing to lift U.S. sanctions. You know, Venezuela's got tons of energy, tons of oil, right? And it might not be a bad idea to lift those sanctions. They haven't worked very well, sadly. But then it could ease the oil prices. You've all been to the gas stations and you've seen, especially if you live in the Socialist Republic of California, which will probably, as I predicted, have $7 a gallon gasoline very soon, if not higher. You know, Brandon, let's go. Brandon, you could open the whole Keystone pipeline project again. You could ease up on your attacks on oil companies. The US can produce all the oil we need and then some right here at home. But you're an idiot. So.

I mean, can you believe in these trying times we have Joe Biden and Kamala Harris running the free world. It's just unbelievable. It's unbelievable. The last standing tyrannical dictatorship in Europe. Belarus place I've always wanted to visit but have refrained in my visit of 87 countries. I've been to Ukraine twice and all over Eastern Europe, but I always skip Belarus because I'm afraid to go there. Right. So hopefully that regime will fall too. But we'll see. Their sovereign bonds have collapsed following U.S. s and EU sanctions. Sovereign bonds backed by Belarus collapsed over the past week due to the nation's entanglement with Russia. Great. Maybe their population will turn against their own government and we will see the freedom loving people take over Russia and Belarus and end these tyrannical dictators. That's what has to happen. Hopefully it'll happen. Russia's invasion of Ukraine has driven wheat prices to near record levels. So food inflation, as if it wasn't already bad enough, is going to get a lot worse. The most traded wheat contract on the Chicago Board of trade gained 7.1%, went up to $11.34 a bushel early Thursday, hitting the exchanges limits for how much the price can move in a session for the third straight day. So they're setting limits. You know about these limits in exchanges for flash crashes and so forth. Price goes up too much, they halt it, they limit it. If the price goes down too much, they limit it too. So it's hit the limit for three straight days. Russian corporate bond prices. Not just Belarus, but Russian bonds have plummeted as much as 70% since the country invaded Ukraine, triggering US and European sanctions that cut the country off from much of the international financial system. Unlike most countries with debt at distressed prices, Russia enjoys current account surpluses and its largest companies are cash rich. We'll see how long they can hold out with that. We will see. We will see. But yeah, this is just a, a very dire situation for sure. Investors are raising bets that the invasion of Ukraine and sanctions on Russia will further fuel a hot commodities rally. And I think that's, that's a pretty good bet. I would take that bet. Remember, as real estate investors, we're already in on that bet because we engage in what I've taught you about over the years called packaged commodities investing or assembled commodities investing. We own lots of commodities, we own lots of energy. That energy is wrapped up in the properties we own. Because when energy prices go up, when lumber prices go up, when iron and steel prices go up, when copper prices go up, we're making money, folks. We're already invested in all of these things through our simple ownership in high quality income properties in diverse markets. Following my ten Commandments of successful investing. If you want to know more about those, my core content that I created back in 2004 and boy, they have fared rather well. They've stood the test of time very nicely. Go to jason hartman.com type in 10 Commandments on the little search engine there@jason hartman.com and you'll find all kinds of great podcast episodes and YouTube videos about those 10 Commandments. You really want to be following that core content. So aluminum or some say aluminium. My friend from Australia, the first time I heard her ever say aluminium, I thought, huh, what is that? But I just want to tell you an interesting story that you might have heard about aluminium. I call it aluminum. And that is Napoleon, good old Napoleon from era gone by, he would invite guests over for dinner and when they would come to dinner, they got to eat using the aluminum utensils because at the time, and this just shows you how things change, because at that time in history, aluminum was so valuable. It was this incredible precious metal. And Napoleon's servants, they ate using the gold utensils because that was for the second class people, the aluminum was for the guests of honor. Isn't it funny how things change through manufacturing? And think about how the value of diamonds, of rare earth, elements of all sorts, and of gold and silver and platinum and palladium, the precious metals may change in the future as technology changes everything. Now, what are Those technologies. Well, of course there's the possibility to make this stuff in labs. You can make diamonds in labs today. Right. And that lessens the value and demand for natural diamonds because they are real diamonds. They're just made faster than nature makes them. Right. They're actual diamonds. They're not cubic zirconia, they're not glass. They are real diamonds. They're just made in a lab. I mean, look, think about it. Think about the incredible things that are going on and some of them scary with genetic engineering, test tube babies. Right. Are you going to call that a person made in a lab? Right. You know, it's, it's a real person. So same idea with diamonds and then also with the future of mining asteroids. And that future is coming pretty fast. So we'll see how it all turns out. The things that all were once considered precious and valuable can change over time with changes in technology. Obviously aluminum did that. Aluminum became mass marketed, mass manufactured. So it was dramatically and is dramatically less valuable than gold. But at the time, aluminum was this super valuable thing. Right? Okay, we talked about that. Aluminum is the highest. Aluminum and nickel have jumped to their highest level in over a decade. Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell said Wednesday it would propose a rate increase of a quarter percent. Now, they did do that, by the way. And the question is, compared to what? See, I predicted as soon as this invasion broke out that we would see an easing of the hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve on its monetary policy and it would loosen or it would tighten more slowly than was projected. And that has come true. But I think they're going to have to reverse course or at least just not do any more increases because the fear of global recession is far too great with all of this terrible stuff that's going on in Ukraine and the threat of it happening with Taiwan. Now, when you heard Peter Zion, the geopolitical expert on last week, that was a great interview with him, by the way. If you didn't catch it, be sure you check out my interview with possibly the foremost geopolitical expert in the world, or at least one of them, Peter Zion. Check it out. We had that for you last week. Now, he didn't think much of this idea that a lot of people have floated about the Russia, Ukraine invasion, sort of giving license to China to take Taiwan. I am more concerned about it than he is, but we will see. We will see. He's, he's of course the expert. I'm, I'm just an armchair quarterback, but we'll see how that, that works. Out. Hopefully it will not happen, but there is certainly a big danger of recession. So I think the Fed is going to have to loosen all of its tightening stances, whether it be asset purchases, tapering of any sort, interest rates, whatever, qe. They're just going to have to ease up and slow down on that. I think it's just going to, going to be required. And it's a, it's a foregone conclusion, so we'll see. But again, inflationary pressure is great. So they're in a tough spot. I mean, the Fed is in a very, very difficult situation right now. Okay, before we get to Harry Dent, our guest today, part two, I want to remind that we have our Amazon gift card giveaways. These are easy to win, folks. It's not like zillions of people enter. And this is not a contest, it's just a little raffle. So all you have to do to win a 50 gift card, we give away two of these per week until further notice is go on YouTube and comment on our videos. Like them, comment on them, and we will randomly pick commenters. So the more comments you make, the greater your chances of winning. And again, there's not a lot of people commenting, so your odds are pretty darn good. Then we give another gift card away, a second $50 gift card to anyone who wrote a review on Apple Podcast, formerly itunes. So go on Apple podcast, write a review and you can win a $50 gift card. Okay, so without further ado, let's get to our guest today, part two of our discussion with Harry Dent. Here we go.

This is what happens when a baby bubble and a daddy bubble, the NASDAQ broader and the baby bubble now in crypto peak together. It's not a 20%, 30%, 50%, 70%. It's a 90 some percent crash in the leading sectors and 80% in the broader thing. That's what we had in the early 30s, 89% correction in the broad stock market. Of course, the leading, you know, General Motors and the leading were down more, whatever the most bubbly. So that's what I'm showing you. You got to look apples to Apple. This is not an ordinary peak. It is a once in a lifetime peak of a major bubble in stocks. And this is the final bubble to burst. And this one, unlike 2000 and 2007, is an artificial bubble, which makes it even more vulnerable. It wasn't even built on anything real except for just pumping more money in the economy, which goes into the financial markets, which makes companies more valuable, makes People more rich.

Rich makes rich people richer.

Yeah, well it makes everybody a little richer, but yes, keeps the economy but it makes rich people a lot richer and the leading companies a lot more overvalued. And that's what booms, that's what burns them up. So I'm here, Jason, to warn rich people. You know, the rich people have the most to lose here and they're the, they're clueless because they think this can't go down.

Got it. Let's get to your next slide if we can. Harry, I gotta explain for people listening. Audio only. So this is S&P 500 downturn similar to Dow 1929.

Is today the last month, little over a month from starting from that top potential top January 4th. Okay, is this the top? I'm tracking this versus the same time period in the early night Dow 1929 crash. Dow was the leading index back then. S and P is now. And it shows. Oh, it starts slowly because hey, other indexes have crashed faster here. But no, The S&P 500 held up the best so far. But this shows we're just about literally in the next week or two about to enter the phase where even the s and P500 starts falling apart. So that'll be a sign to me if this is that first crash. I'm going to know in the next week or two if we're following that trajectory and we're getting and we're going to go down. And next thing you know, look at this. By, by mid March, mid to late March, we could be down 45 to 50% in the S&P 500 if we just follow the same scenario.

Okay, so, so just to be clear, so predicting a stock market crash bubble bursting. Okay, what else?

This is only the first crash of a broader two to two and a half year crash that in 1929-32 took stocks down 89% and I'm projecting 86% for the S&P 500. Okay. In this one.

Wow. So, so an 80. Wait, let me just make sure we're clear on that. So an 86% decline in the S&P 500. Wow. Ouch. That is going to.

Looking at that here. The important thing is are we in that first crash yet? Because I've also done analysis. It shows that the first crash. I did all the seven major stock bubbles in the last century plots. Okay. The first crash averages 46% in the first 2.3 months. 46%. Okay. So it's going to go down 80 to 90 if it's a real major bubble, like 29 or now or 2000 for tech stocks, as I showed earlier. But I'm focusing on the key thing. Are we in that first crash yet? Because if we are, then the rest of the scenario follows. And if we do go down 45 to 50% in a couple of months, like by the end of March, what do you think the Federal Reserve is.

Going to look like?

They're going to lose all credibility overnight. From my point of view, people know when they hear, oh, they're just printing money. Well, it sounds fishy, but it's worked so long. People are starting to believe, maybe experts. Warren Buffet says they're doing the right thing. Sorry, Warren, I thought you had good common sense. This is wrong. Printing money to keep a debt economy alive and not allowing it to clear.

Yeah, but Warren Buffett's just an insider kind of elitist. He doesn't appear that way.

He is, but yeah, he had common sense.

Yeah.

He's telling people you can't go wrong buying long term leading US Stocks. I'm saying you're going to go as wrong as 1929-32 likely here. That is. That is the opposite of that.

All right, so we got the stock market crash. You're predicting what else? Take us to the next slide, if you will.

Okay, well, this is just showing now. Bitcoin. Remember I said bitcoin is like the leaders, like Amazon for the dot com stock.

Okay.

The leading crypto coin.

Sure.

Really security. But it's a coin.

Okay.

And it is farther along this. And it has also followed that first crash scenario back to 2000. Not quite as steep. So this is another confirmation that this is looking like that first crash. And. And then here's the last. Here's the last slide. And here's where I am different from Peter Schiff and the gold bugs. Peter Schiff is just as bearish as me. Most of the gold bugs are. They understand you can't live off printed money. They understand bubbles. But I say gold is not the safe haven because we're going to deflate when all these financial assets deflate and value money, all this created money that went into these inflated assets is going to disappear, Jason. Disappear like a magic guy poop. And it's not going to come back for a long time. Okay, so deflation is the scenario. Peter Schiff sees an increasing inflation bust. More like the thing in Weimar Germany and stuff. So that's the difference. So I look at treasury bonds in a deflationary scenario like the early 30s like 2008 and 9 it was the treasury bonds. Gold went up early like it's doing now in the crash and then crashed with everything else down 50% overnight it was the treasury bonds. 10 and 30 year US treasury bonds, AAA corporates, they're the real safe haven. Things that will not default even in a downturn. And I'm showing the difference between a 20 year ETF called TLT average 20 year. There's 10 and 30 year bonds combined but they're leaning 20 year average. Zroz is an ETF that leans later 25 year more. The 30 year bonds which are more potent. And, and I show that if you use this as a safe haven, the Z ROS is going to do 2/3 better in a crash than the TLT. Only this crash. So I'm just comparing it to the COVID crash, okay, which was a short term crash. But look what happened. Look how much TLT went up 53% and ZRZ went up 89%. So these are the type people understand that if you're in the safest long term bonds, the leverage is the long term duration of those bonds. This sort of shift can cause bonds to go up 40, 50, 60%. Only the safest as a safe haven when stocks are crashing 70%, 80%, 90%. So I'm saying there isn't. People say where do I go? No. Is there a diversified portfolio? No. The safest bonds are the only safe haven. And even gold in 2008 crash.

Okay, so, so you're saying bonds. So but it's, it's kind of highest quality government. I got it, I got it.

Okay, so you're not default no matter what.

Understood. Well, not in, in nominal terms they won't. But in real terms.

But hey, they can print money to goose up a kind of. They can print money to pay short term debt payments. They will not default in this downtrend. They may, okay somewhere down the road in this. And money's got to go somewhere. It's cash or these long term bonds. The difference is cash will preserve your money while everything else falls, which is a huge advantage because you can buy everything cheaper with that preserve tax. But these high quality bonds will increase the value of your money substantially. This is a secret. Gold will not. Cash will not.

All right, so most people would say that those two asset recommendations are kind of for opposite purposes. If you think there's going to be deflation, bonds would be good. If you think there's going to be inflation, gold would be good. But you're recommending both of them simultaneously. Why?

Well, well, inflation always comes in the late stages of a boom because it thinks. And then the government is so overstretched. That's what you started off talking about. This economy is so overstretched. I mean the baby boomers stretched it naturally. Now this is just stretched it. So inflation comes late stage and only you get in a situation like Weimar Germany real quickly. People misunderstand that basically Germany borrowed money overseas and other currents from other countries to fight a war, lost it, and then collapsed. And then their currency collapsed. And the currency collapsing made those debts 10, 20, 100 times higher. That's why they had hyperinflation, had to print money. That is not what happens in most major bubble boom bursts, like 29 to 32. I'm not comparing this to Weimar Germany. Eat with the money. I'm comparing it to 29 to 32, when the greatest bubble back then burst and financial assets collapsed and that ended up ending where the only, the only thing that went up was the very safest financial assets. And that is the very best corporate and government bonds. Even something that has a little default risk is going to be devalued. These are the no default bonds, 30 year treasuries, 10 year treasuries and 20 year bond, triple A. Only corporate.

So to be clear, are you still, I mean, for a long time. I know you, you know, and I've had Bob Proctor on the show. You recommended him. I know you're, you guys think alike about a lot of this stuff. And that's the Elliot Wave theory, just so everybody knows who that is. So are you still thinking that the future is deflationary?

Well, it's a, it's a temporary thing. Deflation is simply deflating a financial asset bubble. Money which is created by leverage and excessive financial stimulus, in other words, artificially gets taken out of the economy so the economy can go back to normal, flush out bad debts, companies that would not exist without all this funny money and all this stimulus and gets us to where we can grow again. So that's what Bob Prechter and I see. There aren't many people, like I say, the other people saying there's a crisis coming, just think it's going to be hyperinflation. Peter Schiff, the Gold Bucks so Proctor and I are not with the gold bugs in this. We agree that money printing doesn't work. We agree it's not sustainable. We're going to have a big crash. We see deflation instead of runaway inflation because these financial assets. Jason, do you think governments are fast enough to print money to keep up? Now let me throw a number that's important. Everybody remember this most important number in the world right now, the biggest number in finance today is 4,540 trillion dollars. Is that derivatives globally, that is six times global GDP. Okay, yeah, that's the, that's the mountain that central banks by all the stimulus have doubled that number from what it would have been normally even in a normal bubble. And that's the thing that when you get an avalanche, it starts to slide.540 trillion and that starts to devalue at the speed of light. What did I say that first crash was in almost every bubble. 40 to 50% in a coup of months. That's what kills the Fed. That's what says this is a bubble. That's what says we were all nuts. Why were we doing this? People will get this very quickly. That's why I'm looking at this first crash. The first crash will make this evidence. Until we have this first typical historical 40 to 50% crash in two to three months, it won't be. People will think they can keep this going.

That's our consumer.

They ran off the road, the car is wrecked.

Are consumer prices going to keep going up or are they going to come down? They go down.

Financial assets go down. All this money, especially rich people and consumer prices, competition, who can buy the biggest. All I do is see the bigger yachts that's coming out, okay? All that ends. People would be defaulting on yachts. They could be defaulting on homes. People have bought two, three, four vacation homes. Now you got to do something with all this money if you're wealthy, okay? All of that stuff freezes up. Everybody freeze up. People stop spending. Consumer prices go down. But most of all financial. The most important number is $540 trillion in financial assets globally. And I think it's 130 just in the U.S. i think that's the right number. I'd have to look that one up. But it's something like that. We're 20% of that number.

So that doesn't even include derivatives.

That. Yeah, well derivatives is all part of this financial asset thing, right?

But the derivative number is part of.

The economy and that reduces spending and then the spending makes the economy worse and that makes the financial assets go down more. And then it, then it's, then it's something that the governments can't just say, well we'll print another 10 trillion and get out of it. 10 trillion doesn't stop a 540 trillion avalanche. That's my view.

Yeah. Okay, before we wrap it up, Harry, I think you got a couple more slides and I just want to make sure we get them in.

That's it for today. I only pulled out. I knew we didn't have that long.

Okay, good.

So just there's tons of stuff, but I mean this is the important stuff near term. So if we see now interest rates have already gone from a half a percent on the long bond to a little over 2 here recently. I think that may be. I was looking for 2 to 2.2%. That's enough coming from a half a percent to trip a stock price. Stock bubbles are almost always in when interest rates rise because people can now get higher returns and bonds and it raises the cost of business stuff. But when you're in this low on inflation and interest rates have pushed artificially low to go from A half a percent to 2.05 recently is a big move. And that I think is what's pricking the stock bubble. And I'm just saying what really happens here, what kills this thing despite central banks are not going to stop printing money, not going to stop escalating. What kills it is the stock market finally has that first 40, 50% crash or more in a couple of months. And that is a wound that the economy and the financial markets cannot come back from. People lose faith in the money printing scheme, which always was something for nothing. I mean the fact that anybody thinks it's one thing to print money in 2008 or nine for one year to help a down economy.

I get it. Totally agree.

To print money non stop and exponentially more for 13 years is insanity.

Yeah, but, but the, the, the people who own assets and the insiders are all benefiting from that cantillion effect. And the rich are just getting richer and the wealth gap is getting bigger and bigger and the whole thing is a giant scam. I think we all agree with that.

I'm in Puerto Rico because I've always come here. I moved here without the tax thing and got it anyway. Okay, but the people, the average person from the US moving here, 20 million net worth. These are the people who probably should be worth 3 million. Okay. Because of this bubble, they're worth all of this and they're moving down to Puerto Rico so they don't have to, you know, the zero capital gains and people Puerto Rico, if you qualify, it's a gringo moving down here. So they're moving down here to protect that wealth. The problem is the stock market's going to do it for them.

Wow. That's.

They're not going to need to worry about the taxes. They're going to have losses forever.

Yeah, well, well, that's something. Yeah, yeah, it's, it's crazy time, Harry. Okay, just wrap it up with any specifics. Or maybe that was your wrap up. Whatever you want. Give out your website.

This is the most critical point in your lifetime for financial markets. What I'm saying, okay. And you simply have got to say, don't be a pig. I hate to say it. You've made artificial gains for a long time because all this stuff, you've got to question this. I'm telling you, just protect yourself. Get out of risky assets, stocks, real estate. Hey, you may keep your primary home, but sell your damn vacation home that you use a couple weeks a year, you know, or maybe two or three because you can't lose money on them. You have to get out of risky assets. Protect yourself. Protect yourself here for a short period of time. I'm not talking about don't invest forever. I'm talking about just for a year or two for this crash to happen. And then the world will be your oyster. The bubble of a lifetime bursting ends up being the sale of a lifetime on financial assets, which means the buy opportunity of a lifetime. I think by late 2023, give or take that people are going to be able to buy financial assets, real estate, houses, bonds, stocks, whatever. The best companies and things that survive after all the zombies go under at the lowest rates you will ever see. Like buying in late 32 or late 1982. That's this sort of you've got to get out of the way to preserve. Otherwise how do you reinvest when you lost all your wealth and whatever you got to get out of the way, get out of risky assets for just the next, let's say two years max. And then if I'm right, the world is your oyster and you can reinvest for the millennial boom from 2024-37. Not something I'm something I've been predicting way before it happens. Okay. Always been predicting that you can invest in the best global stuff for the next boom and buy it at the sale of a lifetime. You will never see this again. So this is the most important time in your financial life. Wake up and look into this. Harrydent.com I've got a free newsletter you can get on. But right now I would get on my paid newsletter because I can't share but so much on the free newsletter but at least get on the free newsletter harrydent.com and our paid newsletter is peanuts compared to what's happening here today. It's like 200 something dollars a year or something. I would get on that now. Just give me a year. If you don't like me, throw me out after one year. But I'm telling you, I don't know who else is going to guide you through this. I mean, there's not many people I can recommend in this time, and Robert Prechter is one of them.

Harry, you know, I gotta ask you about one more thing because you just made me think of it. And you know, when I discovered your work and started reading your books in the late 90s and really enjoying them, by the way, you know, you were talking about how the stock market would really start to suffer right around 2010, give or take. And you know, the financial services industry looked up to you like, I mean, you were God, you know, you, you just. Because that would be retiring baby boomers would start and they would unload their big homes and large homes would also really suffer starting about 2010 to maybe 2012, I think. You know, correct me if I'm wrong, but, you know, that sort of didn't really play out that way. And I'm wondering, what do you attribute that to? Was it just that people put off retirement or, or they just, you know, they didn't act in the, in the sort of the way we thought they would? I mean, people are living longer. They're living. Their health span is longer.

You know, when you're given something for nothing, who's not gonna slop it up, right? I mean, who's gonna sell your house when it goes up 20% a year, even when it's already overvalued? And people keep buying. People are buying two, three, four houses now. They're buying multiple vacation homes.

And you don't mean for investment, you just mean they're just buying homes for per. As personal residence.

Well, they're buying it just for games. They're just speculating.

Yep.

So everybody's in a bubble like this. See, the whole purpose of a bubble, Jason, is to draw everybody in and then flush out all the dumb money. So if you're buying stocks now at the late stage of this, or real estate, still, you're the dumb money. That's what I'm telling you. I don't even want to hear it or not. You're the dumb money and you're going to get crucified while the smart money slowly sneaks out when they think it's overvalued.

I'm especially. I'm especially curious about the McMansions. I mean, the stock market didn't crash as you predicted. The McMansions didn't crash. What's going to happen to the McMansion market? I'm just.

I got a house in a normal neighborhood and I got a vacation house, and I want to sell one and keep one. Sell the vacation house. They're more volatile. They're more speculative. If I got a McMansion, a big house with five bedrooms and a smaller one with two to three, I keep the smaller one, two to three, and sell the McMansions. They're the most overvalued and most overbought in here. So the point is every. You can look at everything. Look at everything since 2000 and since. I mean, since the 2002 low and then again the 2009 low in stocks and real estate stuff, that we're going to at least go down to 2009 levels and probably more like the 2002. How much do you lose? Are you willing to take that sort of loss? And that loss is going to shock you. When you look at how much assets have gone since then, this, this stock market since late early 2009, I don't have any time in history I can compare to this. Artificial. And that's the worst thing, artificial. Not even the 29, 22 to 29 bubble was a real boom. It just got out of hand with speculation and interest rates, okay, and stimulus. But you can't even compare this. This thing is the greatest bubble, particularly in stocks ever in history. And history says it will end not just badly, very badly. And when it finally does crack, there is no nothing to put Humpty Dumpty back. There's no stimulus that can react fast enough. When this thing finally.

I mean, won't they just. Won't they just print. Won't they just print another 17 and.

It'Ll be too late? Did you hear what I said earlier?

5.

Here's the number everybody remember. $540 trillion in massively overvalued financial assets. Stocks, bonds, real estate around the world, great majority of that in the United States of any other country in the world is going to disappear at the speed of light. There is not enough money you can print fast enough. They're not that quick. These not so smart. Anybody stupid enough to think you can keep economy going on something for nothing forever can't be smart enough to print money that quick.

I think the problem is with all of these predictions is nobody really knows because we're in uncharted territory. Nobody knows how far they can keep kicking the can down the road.

That's why I'm focused on the first crash.

Jason.

That's simple. I don't even know. Okay? I can tell you when the stock market looked bubbly, which it did coming into late last year.

Sure.

But I don't.

And you know, Harry.

No, listen to me for a minute. I don't know that it's over till I see that first crash. Then I can say this is done. The problem is if you wait till I can make that proclamation, you're going to be down 50%. Probably panic there and it'll be too late. I'd rather be people be safe. Now see, if I'm right, you don't have to wait long to find that out. You're just talking a matter of months here. But if I'm right, this thing's going to happen fast and hard and it will be obvious when it finally happens and it'll be too late for most people.

Yeah. Yeah. Good stuff. Well, Harry Dent, thanks for joining us and we'll see how it all turns out. And everybody, now is the time to be aware and pay attention. This is not the time you can just ride along as a passenger with all the absolute craziness that's going on in the world today. We appreciate you joining us and look forward to having you back. Thanks, Harry.

Dennis Prager here and I'd like to talk to you about Jason Hartman. Now, they conduct educational events with new techniques for making money. Now, if you and your properties qualify, it is a tremendous opportunity to reduce your tax liability. Visit Jason hartman.com that's Jason hartman.com. you'll be glad you did and tell them Dennis Prager sent you.

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