1923 FBF: The California Drought & Zillow's Newest Statistics on the United States Real Estate Market
18 Nov 2022 · 8 min
In this Flashback Friday episode of Creating Wealth with Jason Hartman (episode 496), host Jason Hartman discusses five main topics. He begins with a candid look at creative real‑estate investing, emphasizing that most of its value lies in creative financing rather than gimmicky "nothing‑down" schemes, and explains why his typical client—busy professionals with capital—doesn’t have time to execute the complex, low‑probability deals he describes. He then shifts to demographic trends, citing a Merrill Lynch report that identifies age 61 as a "freedom threshold" for homeowners and noting that 26 million baby‑boomers will soon be retiring, prompting a south‑ward migration toward warm climates, natural‑beauty areas, and college towns. The episode moves to a discussion of California’s severe drought, highlighting how the state supplies the vast majority of U.S. almonds, walnuts, pistachios, broccoli, strawberries, grapes, tomatoes, and lettuce, and linking water scarcity to both agricultural and real‑estate market risks. Hartman connects this to longevity, referencing Dr. Howard Murad’s book The Water Secret and the idea that cellular hydration underpins health and lifespan. Finally, he reviews Zillow’s aggregated data, comparing national, Atlanta, Los Angeles, and Memphis markets, explaining his rent‑to‑value (RV) ratio framework for predicting appreciation or bubble risk, and promotes an upcoming Memphis property tour. Throughout, he intersperses promotional plugs for his website, other shows, and listener reviews.
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Welcome to this week's edition of Flashback Friday. Your opportunity to get some good review by listening to episodes from the past that Jason has hand picked to help you today in the present and propel you into the future. Enjoy.
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Welcome to Creating wealth with Jason Hartman. During this program, Jason is going to tell you some really exciting things that you probably haven't thought of before. And a new slant on investing. Fresh, new approaches to America's best investment that will enable you to create more wealth and happiness than you ever thought possible. Jason is a genuine, self made multimillionaire who not only talks the talk, but walks the walk. He's been a successful investor for 20 years and currently owns properties in 11 states and 17 cities. This program will help you follow in Jason's footsteps on the road to financial freedom. You really can do it. And now, here's your host, Jason Hartman with the complete solution for real estate investors.
Welcome to the Creating wealth show. This is your host, Jason Hartman. This is episode number 496. 496. We're almost at the Big Magic 500 episode number, people. Can you believe it? And I know some of you have been with me through every one of those episodes. In fact, I know some of you have been with me for every one of those episodes more than one time. And I really appreciate that. I can't imagine I'm actually interesting enough for that. But hey, I'm not going to complain if you're listening. So thank you for listening. Much, much appreciated. And thank you for telling your friends about the show too. So, hey, this is episode 496 and gosh, I've just got kind of some different items I want to talk with you about. You know, my kind of stream of consciousness shows, which this won't exactly be one because I want to hit on five separate topics here. Okay? And the first one is creative real estate investing. Creative real estate investing. Now that can mean so many different things to so many different people and we've certainly talked about it on past episodes. You know, that's really how I became interested in real estate because I remember I watched this guy on TV and he was talking about how you can buy property with nothing down. And I was 16 years old and I didn't have anything to put down. So I thought, okay, that's interesting. Made me pay attention. And little did I know back at my gullible age that, you know, most of These people are generally kind of con artists, okay? They're hype masters. You know, they. They tell you all kinds of things that, you know, maybe they can't really be done. So when it comes to creative real estate, I just kind of to review and reinvigorate my interests. Over the years, I have been to a zillion creative real estate seminars and read a zillion books on the topic and know that zillion is not an exact number, but it's still a lot. Whatever the number is, I don't know. And what these guys teach you how to do, and they're mostly guys because women wouldn't engage in such stuff, but they're mostly guys, what they teach you how to do is something that is, you know, in. In the real world, it is possible. I mean, the ones that are telling you to do something that is truly impossible, they usually get caught. And, you know, maybe. Maybe 20% of them slip through the cracks and the authorities never get them. But the Federal Trade Commission usually catches up with these guys in some way or another. You know, if they're bad people, they might just get busted for something else or, you know, sued for something else or whatever it is. So, you know, 80, 80% of them, they get nailed at some point, right? But, you know, 20% of them are still out there spewing their garbage, and they don't get away with it. Now, here's the thing I don't want to say. I mean, you know, some of this education is really pretty good, and you can certainly do creative things with. With real estate. And mostly when you talk about creative real estate investing, it is really all about the financing. Now, there are other elements to creative real estate investing, but mostly it's financing. Mostly it's about the idea of buying with nothing down or. And, you know, these things can be done. All right? So I. I don't want to say by any means that they're not possible. And I remember at one of my Mastermind meetings, I was in Florida, and this was just a couple of months ago. I remember we had a speaker come up who was an old guy who's been around forever, who's a creative real estate guy. And he, by the way, was one of the legit guys out there teaching creative investing and creative financing. And he got up and spoke to the group and, you know, it was interesting. He was a. Definitely kind of looked the part. He. He had shorts on and. And terrible shoes and a coffee stain on his white shirt. And, you know, it was just. He was Kind of unkempt, but probably a really rich, rich dude. Okay. Nonetheless. And, you know, you can be fooled by appearances because usually people that have some real wealth, you know, they don't feel compelled to show it off. Right. They're usually a little more modest in. In their wealth, but I don't know. You know, that can go either way. Obviously. You know, some are, some aren't. Everybody's different. Right? So anyway, he's giving this presentation on creative investing, and, you know, we're all listening to him with bated breath and kind of just want to hear what he's gonna say. And, you know, most of us in. Have been around the block a couple of times. It's not our first rodeo. Okay, Jason, dispense with the cliches, but we've. We've seen it, done it, been there, done that. Right. And so he. As he's talking, my friend sitting next to me, we look over at each other and we think, really, I mean, you know, and we. We kind of whisper to each other that we don't have time for this stuff. You know, I mean, basically, what he was describing at the time that we started whispering between each. And I know that's bad manners, by the way, but I don't think the speaker really noticed us doing it. So we got away with it. And, you know, we said, how could we possibly have time to do this? And here's what he was describing, and here's why creative real estate investing is possible. It's just not even close to practical. Most of the time. He was talking about this deal he did. He bought a house. And, you know, keep in mind, these are sometimes relatively small profits for a lot of effort to. And, you know, in finding the deal and orchestrating the deal. And a lot of these deals never go through because they're so complex and there are so many moving parts, blah, blah, blah, right? And so he's describing this deal, and he says to the owner, he says, if you sell the house, what are you going to do with the money? And he says, well, I'm really gonna just pay off medical bills. I can't remember if the owner or the owner's spouse was sick or. But there were some medical bills in the family, right, that they had to pay. You know, the owner says, well, I'm gonna pay off the medical bills. And then. And then the creative real estate investor who was speaking to our group, he says, well, how much are the medical bills?
Welcome to this week's edition of Flashback Friday. Your opportunity to get some good Review by listening to episodes from that Jason has hand picked to help you today in the present and propel you into the future. Enjoy.
And he says, well, yeah, I mean, I guess that'd be okay. I mean, I don't care. My whole point was I'd sell the house and pay off the medical bills. And the creative real estate investor says, well, I think I might have a solution for you, you know, being the good creative guy, right? And he says, let me get back to you. He gets up, leaves the kitchen table where he's talking to the guy and you know, can you imagine like the endless number of meetings and presentations you'd have to have to make these deals happen? And you know, it's just, I mean, I've known people that have done this for many, many for decades, and I know what they go through, you know, and he, he says, well, listen, let, let me, before I go, let me have your contact, you know, of the company that you owe the medical bills to. And so the owner says, sure, what can I lose? You know, here's all the information. He goes over the next day, he, he contacts the company to which the owner of that property is paying the medical bills. And you probably know what I'm going to say here, right? You know, a lot of you listening already know what I'm going to say. He says, well, you know, with that company, he tries, the creative investor tries to, number one, renegotiate the debt. Okay, so maybe the term is longer, the interest rate is lower. He basically tries to do a loan modification. Okay, you know, we've talked about loan mods many times. He tries to renegotiate the debt. And if he can't renegotiate the debt, he tries to substitute the borrower or substitute the collateral. This is known as a substitution of collateral, okay? And he says to the company that's collecting the medical bills, look, if I pay you, rather than John Doe, who has this house that I want to buy, pays you, is that okay? And the company will say, you know, maybe, maybe not. But this company, he said, agreed to it. So they drew up some paperwork and then, you know, the creative real estate investor took on the obligation and he bought the house and blah, blah, blah, you know, like assumed the underlying mortgage, bought the house, the owner's equity. Instead of giving the owner money, he took on the debt of his medical bills. And, you know, look, like I said, this can be done, but really, I mean, just, I think I know who I'm talking to because I know most of you who are listening, who are actually clients of ours. You wouldn't have time for this kind of silliness in a million years, okay? Our client. Our client is not the type of person who is running around to lenders to renegotiate debts of owners and getting told no most of the time, by the way. And, you know, 2% of the time they get a yes and the deal actually goes forward. And 98% of the time they hear, no, we can't do that, and the deal never happens. Right. And you're not the kind of person either who's picking up a hammer, putting on old overalls with paint stains on them and painting houses on the weekend. No, you're not that type of person. Right. I don't think you are. Okay? You're not the do it yourselfer. You are the busy person. Maybe a busy professional, maybe a busy entrepreneur, maybe a busy soccer mom. I don't know. I know you guys all do different stuff because we see you at our events and talk to you when you're buying properties through us, and you don't have time to do all this stuff yourself. So when people ask me, jason, you know, I get this occasional thing, why don't you talk more about creative investing? Well, this is why, because, you know, that's just not our clientele. Our clientele, they want to usually leave their corporate job or have more financial freedom or have, as Fernando said on the show, Financial Independence Day. And they already are usually successful in their business or their career, and they have some money to invest, and they just want to get a really, really good return on that money. And they want to be in control of their future. They don't want to trust it to some scumbag criminal on Wall street or, you know, some financial advisor who's going to rip them off or at least if not rip them off, give them really low, crummy returns on their investment. Okay, so that's our client. End of discussion. Right? That's our client. And so I am speaking to our client. At least I hope I am. If I'm not, go to Jason hartman.com, click on that leave voicemail button and tell me what a fool I am, okay? And tell me what you want to hear and give me more suggestions for the show. Couple other things I want to talk to you about. That's the creative financing, creative thing here is interesting now, you know, years ago. By the way, I've got to get some updated statistics on this because I'm sure it's even rolling. You know, as a Snowball rolls downhill. You know, the idea is the snowball gets bigger, right? And a rolling stone gathers no moss. I'm full of cliches today, aren't I? Well, this. I used to say years ago that in when I would do the Creating wealth seminar, I would say within five years, 26 million Americans will hit retirement age. And of course, I'm referring to the baby boomers and their rapid succession into their 60s, right? And what do they want when. When people get older and they. And they become more free in terms of that they can actually choose where they want to live rather than have to live in a place by necessity, rather than have to live there because of a job, because of kids in school, because of whatever, they can actually make a choice. They can make a choice out of free will, and they can go and live where they want. Right? So, interesting article by Carol Ellis recently. It talks about a Merrill lynch report. And you know how I hate Merrill lynch, right? But nonetheless, you know, all these companies spend a bunch of money on research. They put out lots of reports, gives them lots of press releases and lots of PR so that they can get people to invest with them and give them lousy returns or even worse. Isn't it funny how Merrill lynch is at the center of all these scandals, whether it be the Orange county bankruptcy back in 1990. It's just unbelievable. And it's not. And listen, I don't need to just pick on Merrill Lynch. They're all at the center of all these scandals. It seems like these big financial firms and, you know, they'll pay the government a couple hundred million dollars in a fine and then go on their way and, you know, a few years later, you hear them doing something else like that again. Right. It's. It's. It almost seems. Doesn't it just seem like it's part of their business plan that they must set aside in their corporate budgets, you know, a reserve fund to pay for fines and litigation? Yeah, you know, they probably do. It's probably just part of the business plan. I know I'm making assumptions here, but anyway, that's my opinion. So I could be wrong, but I doubt it. Okay, so I'm just going to read you a little bit of this. When it comes to homeownership, the magic number may be a little bit farther away than you thought. According to a new study from Merrill lynch, not until people reach the age of 61 years old do they truly feel free to choose where they most want to live. Merrill lynch analysts pinpointed 61 years of age as the, quote, freedom threshold, unquote, for homeowners, meaning that these individuals tend to stay in their. Tend to say that their choices in homes are determined by their personal preferences instead of their employment. Indeed, 2/3 of retirees surveyed said they are now living in the best home of their lives, the researchers reported. So why do they wait so long for this? Right, so we know it's the issue of, you know, they own a business, they've got a job, or their spouse has a business or a job, and they need to stay in a city that they don't necessarily want to live in. And so what I used to say, just to bring this point home because, you know, once again, many years, I mean, this is, this is quite literally 11 years after I was saying this, I see an article about it. So what I use used to say is that in five years, 26 million people hit retirement age. And what do they have in common in terms of their housing choices? Well, they want to live the first biggest thing. They generally want to live in warmer climates. So the migration is southward, it's to southern states. Number two, they want to live in areas with natural beauty, recreational opportunities. They want to live in areas with diverse age groups rather than living in a gated community of old people. Right. I think that is very legit. In fact, it's very interesting. It's always been interesting to me the migration trend of older people and retirees. And by the way, older is a moving target, folks. You've heard me talk about that before. If you want to know more about that, listen to my newest, hottest show called the Longevity show, the Longevity and Biohacking Show. And I'm going to tell you about some of the content from that in just a moment, by the way. So older is really a moving target. I mean, 61 is not old anymore. Okay, but you know, it's that moving target. Right. But they want to live in college towns. And I just always thought that was pretty interesting. Like, what would people that age want to have to do with college towns? Well, you know, college towns, besides all the hassle of the drunk kids and stupidity and a little bit of crime problems usually too, that come with all that. You know, there's a certain stimulation about it. There's a certain vibe, you know, there's a certain intellectual stimulation and all of that stuff. So, you know, that's always kind of fascinated me. But natural beauty, recreational opportunities, warm climate, biggest. That's the biggest, probably low cost of living, that's another big one. And then the Other thing is, you know, most people who, as they go on in life, they realize that leftist political ideologies don't work. Why do they realize that? Well, because they don't. Hey, my opinion again. And they usually want to get away from these big government places with high taxes and government intrusion in their lives. So guess what? Have you happened to notice that the vast majority of markets we recommend are in areas like that? It's no cowinky dink. Oh, coincidence. Anyway, it's no coinkydink that that that's where the vast majority of our markets are, in those areas with warm climates, natural beauty, low cost of living, less government. You know, good health care is of course very important. So as I was saying in 2004, it's now 2015 and someone finally wrote an article about it. I don't know, they probably did a lot sooner. I just didn't catch it. Can't read every article, unfortunately. Are you just so looking forward to the date when you can download all news and all stuff into your brain with like a usb? I can't wait. But then the, the government will probably download all kinds of, you know, Big Brother type thoughts and stuff into our brains too, so that won't be good. Anyway, so. Water, water, water, water. Wow. No, I'm, I don't need a drink of water right now, but the state of California sure does. This is an interesting article in the leftist magazine. See, I'm, you know, I like to balance my reading out. This is Mother Jones magazine. Okay. Mother Jones, right. A very interesting article in Mother Jones about California's drought and what a significant disaster is. And you know, we sometimes forget. I mean, certainly I forget because I don't always think of California this way, but it is like the, the breadbasket of the United States and other parts of the world as well. It is literally amazing. It's like an agricultural powerhouse. And that's why this drought in California affects a lot more, more than California. But I think things like this and the earthquake problem and obviously all the other issues with California, and there are many, that's my home state, of course, really could ultimately have some, some pretty negative effects on the real estate market there. And of course it's a cyclical market that we, you know, do not recommend. It's just, you know, cash flow doesn't work in California pretty much anywhere in California. It doesn't even make, you know, it's amazing. Like we keep trying to make that work. I keep saying to my area coordinator who's responsible for finding local Market specialists. Hey, can you find anybody in Bakersfield? Can we open up Bakersfield? Can we, can you try Riverside and San Bernardino again? Can you try Imperial County? What else? You know, can you try Fresno even? I mean, just any, Is there anything we can do in California? No, it, we just can't make it work. The numbers just do not work. Good markets, bad markets, they get better in bad markets. But still you just, you just can't make it work in California. I'd love to, you know, recommend some of the areas there, but anyway, maybe it's a good idea that it's never worked because boy, this is, this is significant. So let me share with you a couple of amazing eye popping stats here. Did you know? Okay. And this is how the California drought affects the whole country. That of the entire country's production of these items. Here's how much comes from California alone. Almonds. Do you like almonds? I do. I love almond milk, by the way. I don't know why anybody would drink cow juice. Isn't cow juice just disgusting? I mean, real milk. Oh, gross. But almond milk is fantastic and I think it's healthy at least. Certainly better than soy or rice milk or any of those. Almond milk is my favorite Choice. Okay, so 99% of all US almonds come from, you guessed it, California. 99% of all US walnuts, 98% of all the pistachios, 95% of all the broccoli. Broccoli is quite likely the healthiest food on planet Earth. And 95% of it comes from California. 92% of all the strawberries, 91% of all the grapes, 90% of all the tomatoes. Don't forget your lycopene. It's good for your eyeballs. 74% of all the lettuce. Now the other interesting point in this Mother Jones article, there's a little graphic here that's kind of cool. It's how thirsty is your food? And here's where I want to give a little segue as I talk about my upcoming interview on the longevity show. You know, look, if you're going to invest in real estate and create wealth through real estate, hopefully you're planning to live a long, healthy life, have a long lifespan and a long health span. So these two things definitely go together, right? One of the things that is critically important and I've always known it and I think, you know, we've been drawn to it. I remember seeing a, an infomercial many years ago and I think it was with the late Jack LaLanne. Who, by the way, I happened to meet one time at a restaurant in Morro Bay, California. Jack. Jack LaLanne. I think he was on the infomercial selling his juicer. It might have been Ron Popeil. He was the other big Ronco infomercial guru guy. They were promoting the juicer and they said, look over on this table. And the table had a bunch of fruits and vegetables and they were just so colorful and vibrant and beautiful looking that your eye is naturally drawn to them. And then look over on the other table. And that table had a bunch of meats and breads. And guess what color that is, right? You could literally eat by color. Okay? I mean, that's my philosophy, is just try and eat by color. And I'm not a vegetarian. I tried it for a while. I didn't like it. Definitely increasing your fruit and veggie intake is a good thing. You know, just like your mother told you years ago, right? We all know this. But one of the things that's really interesting is I just finished Dr. Howard Murad's book. I don't have the title in front of me. I'll look for it as I'm thinking and talking and trying to do ten things at once. I just finished that book and it was really quite excellent, I thought. And I booked him on the longevity show. And the book is called the Water Secret. And what he talks about is how water is really the base the of for all life and it's the basis for our health and our longevity. And he says that your health and your life and your lifespan is largely determined. And I'm buying this theory, by the way, is largely determined by the amount of water your cells can retain and process. And you know what, that makes a lot of sense to me. And one of his things is you can keep drinking water all day long and basically drown yourself in water, but if your cells are not functioning properly to retain and process that water, it doesn't work. You just get bloated by the water and you have water weight. And so one of the ways he says that you really want to do this is you want to eat your water, you want to use eat water rich foods. Now, I don't think this chart in Mother Jones is exactly the same as that idea, but I do think it's close because he talks about, well, in the Mother Jones article, talks about how thirsty is your food. And to grow one head of broccoli, it takes 5.4 gallons of water, one walnut 4.9 gallons, one head of lettuce, three and a half gallons, one tomato, three point gallons of water, and a strawberry, 0.4 gallons of water. Okay, but that's just one strawberry. Okay? It's not one head of broccoli. It's not as much food. And I remember in a book I read years ago called Diet for a New America by John Robbins, heir to the Baskin Robbins fortune, he talked about how watermelon takes 42 gallons of water to grow 1 pound of edible watermelon. You know, it's obvious, very water rich. And pretty much everybody likes to eat it. I sure do, because it's quenching your thirst as you're eating. And so I just wanted to share that little idea with you. The book is called the Water Secret by Howard Murad. I'm interviewing him for the longevity show at the end of the next month. Okay, next topic. Enough of this non real estate stuff. Let's get back to business here for a moment. And I'm not going to do an expansive talk on this today. You know, when you get me going, it's hard to show. Shut me up, right? So, you know, Doug, who's been on the show before, has got me kind of looking at Zillow a lot more lately. And of course, this is a handy dandy real estate website. Most people in the industry, most people in real estate will tell you they don't like Zillow and that Zillow is responsible for messing up a lot of their deals by misleading people as to the market values of properties, regardless of what side of the table they're on and so forth. And, you know, well, I do think there's a little something to that. Zillow is certainly far, far, far from perfect. But if you don't expect it to be perfect and you understand that it has flaws and that you can't value property by a computer algorithm, you know, then I think it's helpful. Okay? I think, you know, it deserves a fair chance. It's certainly not everything, but one of the things where it probably stands out exceptionally well is in aggregated data. Okay. When you look at overall stats, I mean, I would much rather look at Zillow data than Case Shiller data. You know, the Case Shiller index. By the way, I remember years ago reading one of Robert Shiller's, Professor Robert Shiller's books, I think it was called Irrational Exuberance Part two. And instead of being about the irrational exuberance that Alan Greenspan, our former Fed chairman, when Alan Greenspan talked about it, he was referring to the stock market in the late 90s, I think it was around the late 90s, he made that famous statement. You know, remember these Fed chairs, whether it be Ben Bernanke, Alan Greenspan or Janet Yellen, they all speak in tongues, right? They have to speak in code because it's kind of like they have to tell you something and they have to report things to the public. But if they really tell you, then you'll react and then that'll ruin everything, right? So it's like a really stupid game. And that's why I think we shouldn't even have central banks. But again, that's another discussion for another day. So the aggregation of data I think on Zillow is great. I think it's far better than Case Shiller Index. And what you can do is, you know, if you're thinking that you're an investor and you're investing in high priced markets like Miami or anywhere in South Florida really, or anywhere in the Northeast, in those high priced markets, anywhere along the west coast and those overpriced markets, you know, you really can just go and look at the Zillow research and you can just know what's going on almost instantly. It's really quite easy to understand. So with that, let me share with you a couple of data points here and let's look at a couple of markets. Let's look at the United States overall, okay? And there are always four stats here in this aggregated data from Zillow. One is the home value index and one, one is the home value index index year over year. You know, whether it's gone up or down in percentage points. And then there's the Zillow rent index and then there's the rent index year over year. Okay, so four simple stats. Here's how the entire country is the United States of America. $178,700 is the. I guess these are average prices. By the way, I do not actually know if that Zillow home price index is a median or an average. And there is a difference. As you will know that the median is just picking the middle. The average is adding them all up and dividing by the number. You know, you know that I'm sure. Okay, so 178,700 year over year, prices have gone up 4.9%. Rent index is $1355 and it's up 3.4% year over year. Now what always happens, and this is one of my big theories on how you can predict whether a market is going to go up or down. You can do it with a Jason Hartman rent to value ratio, the RV ratio, you can really predict its direction by just looking at the RV ratio. Okay, so here in the U.S. we can see that the RV ratio is lower than 1%, right? But remember, that includes all the overpriced markets, which are weighted too heavily because those markets have more transactions because they have higher populations. Right? So, you know, again, you got to read between the lines on all of this stuff. Okay? So that's the United States. Now let's look at a couple of other markets. Let's look at Atlanta, Georgia. I really like Atlanta. I've liked it for a long time, and I still like it. I'm actually looking at buying a couple of properties there right now myself. The home value 154,900 year over year, up 10%. 10% last year. I mean, isn't that amazing? Can you imagine if you put 20% down on one of those properties that went up in value by 10%, and let's say you had just a hundred bucks a month, positive cash flow, and that's lower than our typical pro forma, which is probably right around, you know, it depends on the property, but probably right around $200 per month, okay, you put 20% down. You've basically multiplied your down payment by five times by 500%. So because you have a 5 to 1 leverage ratio, that 10% now becomes 50%. 5, 0%. And, you know, that's what just, just drives me crazy. People who don't get it, who don't understand why and how income property is the most historically proven asset class in the United States of America, if not the entire world. That's why they don't get it. Because just looking at that simple one dimension of appreciation, you got a 50% return on your investment. Okay? Now, I understand that when you buy, there are closing costs, and when you sell, there are closing costs. I get it. It's a simplistic example. But you might have positive cash flow and you might have a tax benefit, too, which makes it even better. So when I talk, when I. You know, when you look at the. When you go to Jason hartman.com and you look at the performance in the properties section and you see projected return on investment of 42%, and you think, oh, my gosh, this guy's full of it. I mean, this is just crazy. There's no way you can make 42%. Well, sure you can. You know, there's an example, okay? And 10%, by the way, is a lot of appreciation in a Year, that's uncommon. So let's look at some other ones. Let's look at Los Angeles in the Socialist Republic of California. Los Angeles, my hometown, where I grew up. Okay, so home value index 535, $3,700. That's insanity. Okay? Year over year, still appreciated. It's up 4.5%. But get this, folks, you're going to see right through this. I know it. Because you are knowledgeable people, because you get it, okay? Rent Index $2,475. So your RV ratio there's is less than half. It's worse than 0.5. In Atlanta, your RV ratio wasn't quite 1%, not as good as it used to be, right? And the rent in LA is up 5.1% year over year. So the uninformed person would read an article in the paper and they would say, oh my gosh, rent rents are skyrocketing in LA. They're on a tear, they're up 5.1%. And then they would go and they would look at the Atlanta market and say, well, in Atlanta that must not be as good because rents were only up 4.5% versus LA's 5.1%. But they would be really dumb. They wouldn't get it because rents are so far behind in Los Angeles as a ratio to value that of course it's much better to buy a property in Atlanta, right? And those RV ratios, here's the prediction thesis, by the way. The prediction thesis is that when rent to value ratios become really out of whack and really anemic, that's when you have the sign of a bubble, bubble getting bigger and bigger and bigger and about to burst. And you know what? I've definitely seen that happen in the last couple of cycles. See, you know, it's so cool to get older in a way because you just, you've been there, you've done that, you have confidence, you know what's going to happen. History does repeat itself, okay? It really does. And it does that because of human psychology being so flawed. That's why it repeats itself. Really just interesting stuff. So Memphis, you know, we've got a property tour coming in Memphis. Go register a bunch of. You have already for that tour. It's coming up. And you've still got early bird pricing, by the way, on the members call, we had some really awesome pricing. You can still get early bird pricing. Go to jason hartman.com and register for the Memphis property tour and check this out. Okay? So this market we think hasn't seen Very much of the hedge fund activity or very much of the private equity groups coming in, very much of the Wall street stuff coming in and bidding up the prices too much. And that's one of the reasons we like it. Okay, so home value index, 107, 500 year over year appreciation, a measly 1.9%. It's fine with me. And Zillow rent index. This is really good. You ready? You ready? This is the best one yet. $1,067 for 107, $500,000 home value index and rents, get this, rents year over year are up 4.6%. So if you like cash flow, this is your market. This is your market. If you like cash flow, if you're a speculator, it's definitely not your market. Okay. It is a cash flow market. So anyway, there are just some insights. We'll explore that topic a lot more in a lot more detail. And on a future show, I'll get into the predictor of appreciation or depreciation, what the signs of a bubble are and do that with you on a future episode. Okay. But for today, I was gonna have time to share a little article with you because I thought I didn't have much to talk about, but you know me, I always seem to get on this microphone and you just can't shut me up, can you? Okay, I want you to go register for the Memphis property tour right now. Before you do anything, go to jasonhartman.com get your ticket for that. It's going to be an awesome event. We're staying at a very nice hotel and all of your meals are included on that trip. It's a super deal. You won't have to take out your wallet for the meals. We've got a bargain hotel rate and Memphis is quite a happening place at the time of that tour. It's a big weekend in Memphis, so it should be a lot of fun. Maybe we'll even have an Elvis sighting. Who knows? So do that. And also, thank you so much for reviewing the show on it itunes, stitcher radio or SoundCloud. We really appreciate your reviews, so thank you so much for doing that. And until the next episode in just two days, happy investing. I'll talk to you in a couple of days.
What's great about the shows you'll find on jasonhartman.com is that if you want to learn how to finance your next big real estate deal, there's a show for that. If you want to learn more about food storage and the best way to keep those onions from smelling up everything else. There's a show for that. If you honestly want to know more about business ethics, there's a show for that. And if you just want to get away from it all and need to know something about world travel, there's even a show for that. Yep, there's a show for just about anything. Only from jasonhartman.com or type in Jason Hartman in the iTunes store.
This show is produced by the Hartman Media Company. All rights reserved. For distribution or publication rights and media interviews. Please visit www.hartmanmedia.com or email mediaartmanmedia.com Nothing on this show should be considered specific personal or professional advice. Please consult an appropriate tax, legal, real estate or business professional for individualized advice. Opinions of guests are their own, and the host is acting on behalf of Platinum Properties Investor Network, Inc. Exclusively.
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