1987: Ron Legrand Free Class LIVE; Breaking: Housing Shortage Crisis Revealed! Uncover the T.I.N.A. Phenomenon and Cantillon Effect with The Uneducated Economist Simon Caron!

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Hey buddy.

Just wanted to say thanks again for the awesome job you did Friday morning. That was great. Just started out our day perfectly and put a cap on our event. I just thought it was awesome, man. You did a great job. But even more than that, just appreciate your spirit in the room, man. Seem like you're just more alive and just more enthusiastic than ever about things you're working on and things the family's doing. So I just want you to know I appreciate you, man. Travel safe.

Welcome to the Creating wealth show with Jason Hartman. You're about to learn a new slant on investing some exciting techniques and fresh new approaches to the world's most historically proven asset class that will enable you to create more wealth and freedom than you ever thought possible. Jason is a genuine, self made multimillionaire who's actually been there and done it. He's a successful investor, lender, developer and entrepreneur who's owned properties in 11 states, had hundreds of tenants, and been involved in thousands of real estate transactions. This program will help you follow in Jason's footsteps on the road to your financial Independence Day. You really can do it. And now here's your host, Jason Hartman with the complete solution for real estate investors.

Welcome to episode 1987. 1987. We have a great show for you today. If you want to end management hassles, we got a special class coming up for that we're going to announce it's totally free. And today we are going to have a talk with the uneducated economist. Yes, my buddy Simon probably seen his YouTube videos. We are going to be talking with him today. You know, he's the guy who talks from his car.

From his old beat up car. So it's really funny. Anyway, he will be with us in a few minutes. But first I got a couple important things to discuss with you. Not the least of which is McDonald's. Yes, a place that I try to never eat at. However, I did grow up on McDonald's. I was a latchkey kid. Hey, I'm a Gen Xer. You know, we were all latchkey kids. We didn't have any parents around, so all we did is get into trouble. But I ate dinner at McDonald's frequently. And it's so funny because, you know, I remember back then how it was, you'd go into McDonald's and anywhere around any meal time, it would be very crowded, there would be so many people there and you'd have to wait in line for a long time. You know, we kind of don't appreciate a lot of things that have changed over the decades. Right. When I go to the grocery store now, there's almost never a line. When I go to the bank. Well, unless I'm going to Chase bank, you know, you get in and out quickly. Chase is a disaster. They're terrible bank, so. But which big bank isn't terrible? I could talk to you about all of the scandals. Wells Fargo has or Citigroup. I mean, these banks, they're all. Well, hey, they're like airlines. They basically abuse their customers. And just like big tech companies, we gotta put them in that category too. Big tech companies abuse their customers. Big airlines, big banks. Hey, big. Is that the common thread? All the big companies that have these sort of semi monopolistic positions or they have a sticky situation where they make it very hard to leave them. I mean, they're just not into customer service by any means, are they? But overall, though, service has gotten faster when you go into a business. Now, when you call a business, it's gotten a lot slower and terrible. And you can't reach a person ever. And when you do, they're a Filipino call center that's reading a script, right? But look, you know, it's all good and bad. This stuff is nuanced and complicated, of course. But let's talk about McDonald's for a minute and let's talk about the story that many of you already know. Of course, most of you probably saw the movie the Founder, that's about the McDonald brothers and Ray Kroc. Now, Ray Kroc, a lot of people attribute him as the founder of McDonald's. No, he's not the founder of McDonald's. He's the founder of the McDonald's franchise system. The McDonald brothers are the founders of McDonald's. Right? And Ray Kroc was a milkshake salesman, right? Or a milkshake machine salesman, sorry. And he sold the machines to them. So he was their vendor. And he looked around and thought, wow, this is a really efficient business, the way you have this process down for making burgers and fries and shakes. And he thought, how could we make this better? Right? And so he basically one day had a consultant that approached him that said, hey, look, you are never going to make a bunch of money with this royalty you're charging as your franchise, as the franchisor on the restaurants. You've got to control what, the real estate. The real estate is the big opportunity here. Yeah. And you know, it's interesting. It's always about the real estate, isn't it? Think about so many businesses. You know, another one that comes to mind is car dealerships. Car dealerships own a lot of land, right? Those car dealerships are big. They're on big pieces of land. And many times the business itself, the car dealership is simply a way to pay off the mortgage on the land. And when you look at McDonald's, I mean, that's the biggest real estate company in the world. Now, people have debated this, whether or not the McDonald's riches really came through real estate. And I would say they have now granted one of the things they did. And by the way, we have a free class on this coming up this week that you want to join. It's a free two hour session live. And it is related to this brilliance of McDonald's. Well, you'll see how in just a moment. So McDonald's, when the consultant approached them and Ray Kroc got the idea of, look, I got to control the real estate, so we're going to buy all the real estate and then lease it back to our franchisees. That's going to be a much better business. In fact, here's one of the quotes from one of my newsletters. I can't remember which newsletter this is. I think it might be the Hustle or something. You all get all those newsletters, right? So this consultant comes in and says, quote, you don't build an Empire off 1.4% cut off a 15 cent hamburger, by the way. That just shows you how much inflation there's been. When you read something like that, you build it. So by owning the land on which the burger is cooked. And this thing of owning the land gave the franchisor so much more control over the franchise system. It wasn't just about the real estate investment, but these factors worked together to make it such an incredibly powerful combination. You know, he pitched the steady upfront source of revenue as fuel for further expansion, right? Today, by controlling the land, McDonald's can dictate the terms of its leases, right? It can dictate the terms of its leases with franchisees, ensuring a consistent revenue stream. Fun fact. Investors have pushed McDonald's to spin out of the real estate portfolio over the years, but the company has always opted to let the sleeping giant be. All right, so at the end here of this article, which I thought was really just, it was just a good reminder, I mean, I've known this for decades about McDonald's. Nothing new here. I knew it Long before seeing the movie the Founder. But all of this stuff really just reminds us of the most historically proven asset class in the world, income property. Income producing real estate. While many other companies have a core headline product that consumers love, oftentimes the most exciting part for us as investors is the real business that lies beneath what lies beneath. It's the land. You know, I've told you this before, but the preamble to the national association of Realtors, you know when, when you take this oath, when you accept your position as a realtor, right? One that I did at 19 years old, you join NAR the preamble says, under all is land. Under all is land. And that is so, so important. Now, how do you make this deal work, though? How do you make the land deal work? Because we all know as investors, one of the hassles of being an income property investor is, hey, you're a landlord, right? And most people don't love being a landlord. Now, I believe that the easiest way to approach landlording is through a hybrid self management model where you get a la carte services from a property manager or a real estate estate agent and then you collect the rent directly every month. So you are maximizing your revenue, minimizing your expenses and increasing your control of that asset. And that's great. And it works very, very well. Those of you in our Empowered Investor Pro program and in our Empowered mentoring program, you are doing a better job taking advantage of this than most real estate investors. But what if there was a way to have greater control, less involvement, fewer headaches, and ease of management? Well, that's what our class is about. Our live Zoom meeting on Friday. You'll be able to ask questions of a very famous, well known pioneer in this field that is none other than Ron Legrand. Now, I had dinner with Ron a few weeks ago. We're in a mastermind group together. And I said, hey, you know, how about teaching a class for our students? This isn't a class where you're going to hear a big pitch, okay? Yes, he has products, he has classes, et cetera. Of course he sells stuff, right? But you're going to get two hours from the man himself. Ron Legrand is a legendary real estate investor and real estate trainer. He is super famous, super, super wealthy, been around for decades and decades and decades teaching this stuff, like four decades. And he is going to talk, talk about just one of his strategies that I want him to share with all of our people, and that is leasing properties with lease options and rent to own portfolio options he calls these terms. Okay, terms. And this is a totally free zoom meeting. You'll have the chance to interact, ask questions. It's a two way conversation. It's not recorded, it's not a, not a webinar. It's a zoom meeting. Okay? You'll be on there with me, with our team and with Ron Legrand and you have the opportunity to learn about doing this strategy with your tenants, with your renters. Now, there are three things, three sort of biggest, basic broad strategies here. Number one is the option to purchase, Number two, the lease option and then the lease purchase agreement. This is called by a lot of names, rent to own terms, whatever. Right. But different approaches to it offer different degrees of control. And one of our clients is actually doing this right now in one of his properties. He's in the mentoring program. I had a meeting with him last week. It's really great to see people implementing these strategies. Why? What does it do for you? Well, what it does for you is it really makes it so there's almost no property management. You don't need a property manager. I mean, you can have one if you want, but really that would probably be a waste of money. You can easily self manage these properties. The tenant becomes responsible for the maintenance, the repairs and you're really just not going to see a time. It's going to be extremely rare if you ever do, where you'll have to take a phone call or an email or anything. These can be set up a lot of times in three year option cycles and you get a tenant to put a lot more money down. Instead of the typical first month, last month security deposit or you know, maybe you get a security deposit of one and a half times rent, no last month. Depends what state you're in. Different laws obviously govern this differently, but you're going to get a big upfront right now, chunk of cash from that tenant buyer and they're going to have an option and a program to move toward ownership, which is what the vast majority of people want, of course. And this can be a really good deal. Now a lot of times they don't exercise the option, they don't actually even buy the property. In fact, that's what happens most of the time. But it creates a better tenant who feels like an owner, who acts like an owner. And there are a lot of different ways to do this. I think you're really going to like it. This is just one of Ron's strategies. I asked him to focus on this one because of the thousands and thousands of clients I'VE helped buy income properties over the years, over my many years in the business. The ease of management is a very, very attractive thing to them. So again, this is totally free. It's a zoom meeting. So you have the opportunity to interact, ask questions in the chat. You can ask questions. You can ask questions out loud. Unmute yourself, Talk to Ron directly. And it's on Friday. Okay, Friday. So what is the link to register for this free class? Jason hartman.com.

We figured we wouldn't do it as La grand because it might be misspelled. So just real easy. Jason hartman.com grand because it is grand. It's going to be a grand meeting for you. So join us for that this Friday. Take time off work, take an extended lunch hour at the time of this meeting on Friday. Jasonhartman.com Grand Go Register now and let's get to my interview with Simon the uneducated economist. I think you'll enjoy this.

Good morning everybody. Uneducated economist here. I got my man Jason Hartman with me. Jason, let's talk a little bit about the inventory levels. How are we going to see an inventory rise?

That's a very good question. And the way you phrase that question was perfect. It shows that you have a much deeper understanding of the market than most people. Here's why. For the first time in my career, and I don't know, maybe the first time ever, we're moving into this world where we have like two markets operating at once. And here's what I mean by that. We've got all the existing housing inventory, right? That's about 140 million homes, give or take in the country. Okay? Country's about 330 million people. We got about 140 million housing units. And of those 140 or so million housing units, 25% of them have a mortgage at or below 3%. This is the poison pill that the Federal Reserve has put into the housing market. And when I say poison pill, it's good or bad, depending on what side of that poison you're on. Here's what I mean. These people will not be very motivated at all to sell those homes. So it's very unlikely that they will fall into distress because they have such a cheap mortgage. And guess What? They've got 28 to 29 years left on those ultra cheap mortgages. So we Talked about the 25% that have mortgages at or below 3% interest, very cheap, not going to be motivated to sell, and unlikely to ever be in distress because their mortgage is so cheap. But guess what? 65% of all mortgages in the country have a mortgage rate at or below 4%. 4.7 million people in the country, 4.7 million, almost 5 million people, have a mortgage between 2 and 2.5%. If you want to have a real estate crash, you must have one ingredient. Distressed homeowners. If you do not have distressed homeowners, you will not and cannot have a real estate crash.

And so if we were to see distressed borrowers, I mean, where would that come from? It would have to basically come from a rise of unemployment, right?

A very significant increase in unemployment. And the Fed is trying to increase the unemployment rate. They have stated that as a goal. They're trying to put you out of a job. Okay? This is the problem with a centrally planned economy. It's just evil, okay? But it is what it is. We have what we have. Okay? Actually, there's one more statistic I gotta share with your audience. We Talked about how 25% of the people have a mortgage at or below 3% and 65% of the people have a mortgage at or below 4%. But what I didn't tell you is that 40% of all homes in the country have no mortgage whatsoever. They're free and clear. When people talk about the new home market, they can say there's a bunch of new home inventory coming on the market because that started construction, you know, year and a half ago, two years ago. I mean, it didn't really start construction then, but there's a lot that happens before it comes out of the ground, right? There's entitlements and permitting and planning and all environmental impact reports and all kinds of stuff right before they can build anything. But here's the thing, the vast majority of those new homes are higher priced properties, okay? They're five, six, seven hundred thousand dollars properties, virtually zero. I mean, it's just a little bit has been built and is still being built is entry level housing. The housing is all much more expensive. And since we deal with investors who want to buy rental properties, none of this new home inventory virtually is suitable for them. It's all more expensive. More expensive homes do not make sense for rental properties because the rent to value ratio is very unfavorable for the investor. As you go up in price of the home, the rent doesn't follow very much. It goes up a little bit, but there starts to be this big gap, okay? When you, when you're looking at the entry level housing market, the rent to value ratio is much more favorable for the investor. So Investors want entry level bread and butter basic housing to buy. And since the Great Recession, almost none of that has been built. There's, I mean, show me a new home builder building 150 or $200,000 house.

You know, I have to agree and you know, a lot of it, a lot of times because, you know, I'm just viewing from like what I can see firsthand. You know, I live in a kind of a inexpensive area. My place, you know, the Astoria area is definitely growing with the retirement communities and you know, with the retirement money coming in and the, you know, it's a lot of gentrification happening. A lot of the working class is simply leaving and it's in. It's a different type of people that are coming. And I thought that was the reason why the expensive homes are coming in. But when I started looking out there deeper, it seems to be the case, like you were saying. And what it comes down to that I found is that really the home builder can't build a cheap home. They simply just can't do it. There's no, there's not enough profit margin in it. So they have to go for the most expensive home that they could build into that market in order to get the profit margins to be a successful builder. And that's quite unfortunate condition, you know, really, like you just simply can't build cheap homes.

Yeah, no, you can't. It doesn't make any economic sense and that's why they don't build them. There's no question about that. And builders will not build those houses in the future. They cannot build. They make no economic sense. So that is a big protection for investors in entry level housing.

Kind of what I'm seeing here is that houses that are new being built are built for those who can actually have a lot of money. And those homes that are being built for those who might be entry level are getting eaten up by the investors.

Right, you're absolutely right. However, the investment market has also cooled a bit. Okay. But it's not consequential because there's just no inventory.

Anyway, to be honest with you, last year I was forced into buying this house. Like I literally feel forced into buying it because I could not find a place to rent in Astoria. And it was either leave my area or buy a house. And I bought the house and immediately it was like, almost like, well, interest rates. So I had already started to take up. I got it at three and a quarter.

Oh, good for you.

Yeah, right. And now I look at it. Not only has the house Value gone up. But there's no way that I would have been able to get into it at this point with the interest rates as high as they are. So I would have been already. I would not have been able to move into the house that I am in right now.

Yeah, you would be priced.

I would have been priced out, yes. And so that's like, that's kind of scary to think about how nervous I was about getting into this house and to be in the position that I am today. Thank you God. It happened like, I mean really, I do think am thankful for that. I mean rents in my area for a single bedroom apartment is eighteen hundred dollars. My payment on this house is twenty two.

I mean it's just like where is going to be your motivation to ever sell? Right?

It's not. I mean every day I see this, you know, I feel better about being in my house. I do try to be like, you know, a critical thinker on, on everything. Like I want to see. Like if I have a particular belief, I try to look for the opposite, try to say, okay, this is something that, you know, that is disagreeing with your beliefs or something. And everything that I look at so far is telling me that I'm, you know, even if we were to see like things like foreclosures, it's years away. You know, house prices are though elevated in coming down. I don't see how could they could possibly crash without the inventory levels. All these things that I'm compiling together, it just tells me that the idea of having like a total housing market crash just doesn't seem to be very reasonable. I mean I don't see where, I mean I don't give any evidence to where housing market is going to explode and continue to go up. But that's, that's just kind of my conclusion on, on what I found. Even when it comes to like building a new home, like hey, I'm just going to build my own home and forget everybody out there or whatever. The price to build a home today, even though lumber prices have come down, the materials, the rest of the materials are still elevated and they have not come down yet. Windows are still expensive, doors, siding, all that stuff is still quite expensive. The only thing that's really come down is the framing of the house, the lumber and the plywood which has come down dramatically.

So, but, but Simon, we're not traders here. You know, we're not looking to day trade the market. We're just looking for the big macro trend and we want to put our money in and have it give us a good return if the price goes down. Big deal. We're not selling anyway, right? We're just going to keep the property and get yield and cash flow out of it. That's what an investor does, a speculator. Day trades. They're trying to say, oh, well, I better buy now because in six months the price will be higher. Or I better wait six months because the price will be lower, Right, like you cannot. First of all, I have never met anybody who can accurately time the market like that, okay? That's the first thing. But the second thing is, who cares? That's not what investing is. That's speculating and gambling, right? And I'm not to say. I'm not saying you can't make money speculating in gambling. You can, and I've done it sometimes, but you can also lose a lot of money that way. Real investing is earning a return on investment over time. That's what investing is. And I'm an investor, okay? And so are you. So as an investor, you've got capital, right? And when you look out in the marketplace, you think, where can I best deploy my capital? Right? The mistake would be asking yourself, well, why can't I get the rate the deal, right, that I could have gotten two years ago? Look, that ship has sailed, okay? It was better two years ago. Nobody would disagree with that. The rates were lower, the prices were lower, everything was better, right? But we didn't know, you know, like in the middle of COVID people thought the world was ending, right? So, you know, you could have invested and bought, you know, five properties back then, and they could be worth 10% of what they're worth today. If the world had ended and the, you know, population had died off by a couple billion people, there'd be less demand, right? That would be just a catastrophe, okay? So nobody knew. And you never know what the future will hold, right? We. We don't know that. But the question is that is to think about the acronym that investors use. And that acronym is a woman's name, Tina T I N A. And it stands for Their is no alternative. T I N A There is no alternative. The Tina question, okay? And so what that question really means is, you know, what is the best alternative? That's really what it means, right? And so, I mean, is it going to be cryptocurrency? Is it going to be stocks or bonds? I'd say that none of those assets are going to do as well as income property. Is it going to be precious metals? Not even close. In my opinion, because precious metals don't have income leverage, tax benefits, cash flow, you know, they don't. Income property has these multi dimensional characteristics. So you, you know, most people, like the simpleton thinks, well, I'm gonna buy low and sell high. That's just one of many dimensions, okay? You know, that's the way a non dividend paying stock works. Or precious metals, or cryptocurrency. Buy low, sell high. It's the whole game done. End of discussion. Dividend paying stock, buy low, sell high, get some dividends in between. A little better. Two dimensions, right? Income, property, multi dimensional. Buy low, sell high, get cash flow, get tax benefits, get leverage, get inflation induced debt destruction. You know, there's just a whole bunch of benefits. And when you own income property, you basically have a business and some of your general life expenses could become tax deductible. Okay. So there's just a whole slew of benefits to it.

But you know, Jason, thing that I have been following quite a bit is Cantillon's essay on economic theory.

Yep. And the people closest to the money get the most of it, right?

The people who are closest to the money. And this is, and he describes three people who live independently. The prince, the property owner and the capitalist who invest into that system. Those are the three people everybody else has to work for the state. And so I think about that, you know, everybody, like everybody that I met at the Rebel Capitalist, not everybody, but most everybody, people that I have inspired to try and emulate, all did it in real estate, like everybody does. You know, to think that, you know, just an average guy, working class dude to become one of these property owners such as yourself, you know, following guidance, like what you are trying to provide for the people is what they need to know. It's like it's, it's a secret only because people just don't know. It's not like it's secret that it's information that can't be had. You know, and that's what I love about this, is that, you know, this whole real estate game and what you are showing people, you know a lot with the other guys that I, that I follow as well, is that you can do this from the ground, right? I mean this is something that anybody can really do, right?

Yep, yep, anybody can do it. Income, property is the most accessible asset class for the normal everyday person. There are basically two forces that throughout history have been forces that can create income, right? Or wealth ultimately, hopefully. And one is labor and the other is capital. And that's the Name, you know, like communism is all about the labor, right? And there's this constant battle between labor and capital. And capitalism is obviously about, as the name would imply, capital, right. And there's this battle between which one should get more or less of the pie, the labor or the capital. And I will be the first to say that it is not fair the way the system works. But communism is also not the solution because that obviously has not worked out very well. But. But the most influential economist of all time was no doubt Karl Marx, unfortunately. And in essence, his ideas were kind of theoretically good, but in practice, because humans are fallen and greedy and we all want more power and wealth and that's just self interest, right? He didn't account for that very well.

So communism became very much abused. And sadly, that's the way it will always be, because human nature will not change. You know, there's a constant struggle between capital and labor. And probably most people listening to this are in the labor category, right? They're trading their time for money. They want to get ahead, and you got to try to get out of that. The only way you're really going to get ahead of the game is to get out of the labor value trade and get into the capital value trade. Because capital has scale and leverage to it. And if you use that capital to buy the assets that every human on earth needs. And what do they need? There's only three things basically, right? Look at Maslow's hierarchy. Food, clothing, shelter, okay? That's the three basics, right? And you know, they can rent that shelter from you. One of the things also, Simon, that we didn't talk about yet is everybody's so focused on real estate prices. Will the price go up, will the price go down? You know, yada yada. And we talked about that. But what they didn't, what they don't talk about is if the market softens and prices soften or say they fall, right? Well, as long as the population didn't decline and the stock of housing didn't increase dramatically, you have another supply and demand market going on here, and that is the rental market. So what happens when interest rates go up and housing becomes unaffordable like it is now? Right. People would argue the affordability index is much lower than it used to be. And that's. That's true.

What happens? Well, people who are renting are forced to stay in the renter pool. So there's more pressure, upward pressure on rents, and there might be downward pressure on prices, but upward pressure on rents and these things you'll find are typically they do get distorted by the government and they get distorted for short periods of time, but they never get distorted over long periods of time. They start to. The truth is always told over the long period of time. What happens is you see upward pressure on rents and rents go up. Okay, so if you're an investor and you have a big portfolio of properties, think about it, what would you want? Well, yeah, you want your properties to go up in value, but if you're not really focused on selling them and you're really an investor and not a speculator, then you really would like to see higher interest rates and lower housing affordability and high inflation. Because what's that going to do? Well, the inflation is going to destroy your debt. It's going to push upward pressure on your property price, but it's also going to push upward pressure on your rent. And the higher interest rates and low housing affordability is going to keep everybody renting from you and you're going to be able to raise your rents a lot more. Okay, so this is a two sided equation and it's typically non correlating, which is good. But most people just focus on the price and they never think about the income. So what's happening right now? Well, right at this very moment, rents have taken a bit of a breather. They have gone up so much over the past couple of years, it's like insane how much rents have increased. But let me tell you something, Rents are going up, folks. Rents are too low. They always take two to three years to catch up to prices. That is always the way it is. Think about it. Why is it that way? Well, in a hot market, when houses are selling and you're in your, you look around your own neighborhood, okay? Every time a new sale happens in the neighborhood, it's higher than the last one. In a hot market where the money is cheap and flowing, right? So the comps are set very quickly and the prices rise very quickly. But every house in the neighborhoods that's, that's a rental property is probably on a one year lease and they can only raise the rent once a year. So the rents always lag the prices. The prices always precede the rent. It always happens that way. So you get this kind of situation where you see the prices really escalate and the rents escalate a bit, but then the prices start to soften and tail off a bit and the rents just keep on going, okay? And then they cross and then it usually switches back because the Fed will do a pivot because we're in a recession, they'll ease the money supply. That'll start to put prices up again. This is the pattern that's happened throughout history, folks. It's over and over and over again.

Yeah.

And.

Right. And so that's one moment when the rents are increasing and the prices drop. That's the moment when buying a house actually gets cheaper than renting. Right. It was like, that's the idea because, like, for a while there, buying a house was like just as much as renting. You know, it was like, you know, you didn't save any money by going to rent. And then at one point it gets discouraging to rent and it's cheaper to buy a house. And that's where the moment that the Fed. That's that moment that you're talking about. But whether that happens, who knows?

Oh, it's a pattern. It'll happen.

How far out do you think?

Well, the rents are lagging, and in about two to three years, we will see the rent sort of catch up with the prices. And until then, we'll probably see prices cool off and soften a bit. But remember, you got a segment by property type and property price and so forth, like we talked about earlier. I mean, in our market, the properties our investors buy, I think those properties will increase in price this year by 3 to 6%. Okay. But properties in Los Angeles or San Francisco or some of these cyclical markets, those properties are going to decline in value, but our investors wouldn't buy those. Anyway.

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