2045: Economic Collapse Imminent! Truth About the Next Recession and How to Prepare with Robert Murphy Part 2

This show is produced by the Hartman Media Company. For more information and links to all our great podcasts, visit hartmanmedia.com Long story short, sold three houses as of last month. So I closed out last month on the real estate side. Sold three houses, got two more under contract. Met with a bunch of investors earlier today on some fix and flip projects. It's been a long time coming but all that stuff that Jason and the rest of the team and I have been working on since Jacksonville all coming through. So all good stuff.

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Welcome empowered investors. This is episode 2045. Bob Murphy is back with us today to continue a very interesting discussion on the economy, on artificial intelligence and where we are going with all of this crazy stuff. Two quick announcements before we get to him. Number one, be sure to join us for our 2.99% financing offer. We have a zoom meeting on this. It's interactive. You'll get the whole scoop on this program. 2.99% mortgage for owner financing, special seller financing on this very unique program that by the way is not perfect. And we're going to outline some of the flaws with this program as well. Nothing is perfect but there are some huge advantages to this program. It's very compelling with 2.99%. In fact we did some performas on the properties and you could literally get $575 positive cash flow. I mean where can you do that nowadays on high quality, brand new, brand new rental properties. So really, really incredible. 2.99% financing, $575 projected positive cash flow. There's a lot of details to this program. Be sure to register@jasonhartman.com that's Jason hartman.com financing and we will look forward to seeing you there. It's tomorrow night depending on when you're listening to this. We did one before this again is Thursday, August 31st. We did one before. We did not do any replays on this because we really want you to be able to ask questions so that you fully understand this very unique, very special program that we have 2.99% financing. Go to jasonhartman.com financing right away. Register for that and we will look forward to seeing you there. Okay, the other thing is, on Tuesday evening, for our Empowered Investor Pro group, the first Tuesday of every single month, we have a Zoom meeting. And these are great for less than the cost of a super cheap, crappy gym membership or about what you're probably paying for your various streaming services. Actually, less than that, probably. You can join Empowered Investor Pro, and this is the program that can literally save you thousands and thousands of dollars or make you thousands and thousands of dollars with every Zoom meeting we have every single month. Plus, you get the social network, you get the property tracker software, the deluxe version of that included for free. You're crazy if you don't join this. I mean, I just absolutely can't understand why everybody would not be a member of Empowered Investor Pro. Tuesday evening, though, we have a very special meeting. We have two eviction attorneys joining us from different states to give you the inside scoop on landlord tenant law and doing evictions in these two different states. So we're going to compare and contrast them and see which one is more favorable, which state is more favorable, landlord friendly. So that if you have a deadbeat tenant, God forbid, you know, we're all going to come across them at some point. If we have enough tenants and buy enough properties, it's just going to happen. Law of large numbers. But you're going to be able to, number one, know the right people to contact that can help you. This is part of building your team. But also know the inside scoop on how the tenants can weasel on you, how to prevent them from being weasels. Just really, really good stuff. So a couple of eviction attorneys coming up Tuesday evening. Remember these meetings. Zoom meetings are the first Tuesday of every month unless there's a holiday. This one, of course, is after Labor Day, so you'll already have done your three day weekend. And join us Tuesday on Zoom for eviction attorneys, landlord, tenant law specialist attorneys. This is going to be a very informative meeting. For that, go to empoweredinvestor.com and sign up. You're absolutely missing out. If you don't sign up for Empowered Investor Pro. Just go to empoweredinvestor.com and we'll look forward to seeing you at both of These great Zoom meetings. All right, without further ado, let's get to Bob Murphy and continue our fascinating discussion with him. Here we go. I do want to kind of segue into your new book and talk a little bit about that and just give people kind of a primer on how the plumbing works. Right. We've done that many times over the years, but we have not done it in quite a while. So I thought that would be a good review for our audience. But just the mechanics of the way the economy works, the way, you know, fiscal and monetary policy work. Take us through the book, if you would, a little bit.

Okay, sure. So it's pretty comprehensive, and the intention is to be, like you say, sort of a primer on how does money and banking work, like a sort of fundamental level. And then building on top of that, and then what do central banks do? And then it does catch up with some more recent issues, like the claim that Federal Reserve have a lot to do with the housing bubble in the US in the 2000s, things like that. And then there's been some controversy about does banking work the way that a lot of the orthodox textbooks say. So it tries to deal with a lot of those things as well. But one thing that's in there that I don't see stress much is it gives the early history of money in the United States. So I know probably a lot of your listeners, too, that, you know, we had this idea that, oh, Richard Nixon ended the gold standard in 71. And we know that FDR did some funky stuff like in 33. But the further back you go, it's really interesting that originally it wasn't that the US Authorities picked the quantity of dollars. It was that they said what the legal, you know, if you brought in a certain amount of gold or silver in terms of grains, then they would take that and stamp them into the appropriate coins, whether it was like dollar coin or, you know, a gold eagle, that sort of thing. And so there was a sense in which the supply of money was endogenous, that that wasn't something the government picked. It was just they said what the ratios were. And then the public could turn gold and silver, like raw amounts, you know, into gold or silver coins that were legal currency if they wanted to. So it goes through just, you know, some of the mechanics of that just to kind of get people to realize money and banking were not creations of the state. You know, that's something that voluntarily people kind of adopt and embrace on their own. And then the. The government came in at various points and you know, I argue in the book, to the detriment of humanity that it wasn'.

Better. Yeah, and I agree with you. I mean, maybe I'm just not in touch with the modern world when I say this, but do we actually need central banks in all these countries? Like, how would it function without a central bank? Well, the price of money would be set by the free market instead of the fomc. Right. Why do we need to have a central bank that decides what the money supply is going to be or the reserve ratio or the interest rates? Why can't the market just figure that out like everything else? For example, certain banks would lend at different rates, certain banks would have different reserve requirements, and there'd be all kinds of rating services that would rate them for their safety and stability. You know, I guess that also goes into the government insurance and the fdic, of course. But could we do without this?

Yeah, so I think so. Among other things. For example, you know, if you ask the average, like, why do we have, you know, the Federal Reserve? And they would say, well, gee, I mean, depending on how much of the history they knew, they said, oh, well, there was the panic of 1907 and J.P. morgan had to bail people out and they didn't want to be. This is why, if you look at the history of it, it was a little bit more sordid than that. Like, there's all kinds of cloak and dagger things about international bankers and senators taking trains under assumed names out to Jekyll island and so on. Like, it really is an interesting side story. But put aside, you know, the origins and whatnot, just what are the results under, you know, standard econometric, you know, measures and things like that with standard data sets. The US Economy has been more unstable since the formation of the Fed, just as your listeners know. What's the worst crisis ever? The Great Depression. Well, the Fed was formed in 1913. The stock market crash was 29. Right. So the Fed had been on the watch for, you know, 16 years at that point. And so clearly that was under the Fed's jurisdiction that they have. And then the Great Recession, as they call it, is all, you know, touted as like the second worst again on the Fed's watch. After they said, okay, we screwed up in the Great Depression, we learned our lesson. Never again.

Oops.

And they did it again. So, and again, just even average measures, certainly price inflation has been worse since the foundation of the Fed. Before then, the prices kind of were stable over long stretches of time. $10 could buy you the same amount of stuff in 1800s and 1840, that sort of thing. So by standard measures, what would it look like if the Federal Reserve was a source of instability? I would argue the current world. And like you say, I'm just thinking about it in the United States, it would be crazy if we had a committee of 12 people to decide what the price of eggs were going to be. And yet it seems normal.

That's the Soviet Union. That's basically what they had. Yeah.

And I don't know if you ever saw us, Jason, but Alan Greenspan one time was a guest on the Daily show with Jon Stewart, and Jon Stewart asked him kind of like what you were saying. Like, you know, you wouldn't normally want a committee of people setting the price of, you know, hamburger meat or something. So why do you guys get to choose what interest rates are? And Greenspan kind of gave a, you know, a green Spanish answer where he meanders around and whatever.

But anyway, interpreting his answers are impossible.

So it's a good. It's a good question, you know, that, yeah, we ostensibly a capitalist economy and so forth, and we let market forces set other prices. It's weird that we have central planning and money and banking. And I would say, coming from the Austrian school perspective, that's what causes the business cycle. That that's actually why we have ups and downs, is because the banking system injects money and makes interest rates artificially low. That causes a boom and then they slam on the brakes and that's what the bust happens.

Just an interesting side note about that. I think you and the listeners might be interested in this. One of my funny little fetishes is I like to really watch old videos, okay? And I found on YouTube some old videos. The former Soviet Union and their pricing authority, right? These are just old films where someone went into the office of, you know, the pricing czar, I don't know what it was called. I can't remember. And they had these. Some computers, but hardly any computers, just mainframe computers back then. And they had these big giant books, you know, those blue folders you see with the echo fastener in the center and, you know that like 500 pages thick of the price of literally every product in the Soviet, Soviet Union that was sold. And just books and books and books of these things for just zillions of products. And they had to decide what the price of everything should be. And they couldn't figure it out. So literally what they had to do. And they didn't say that in this film, but I know this from other sources, they had to look to the Western world to try and determine what the price of eggs should be or shoes or whatever else. I mean, just can you imagine being in such a hole that you just would not know? You would have no information, like there was no market to tell you what the price of anything should be? Like, that's just such a foreign concept to most of us. But that's how they operated.

Well, right. And it's, I mean, that's, as you know, that's, you know, a central contribution of living. Von Mises and, you know, Friedrich Hayek, you know, picked up the gauntlet and ran with it too. That saying, it's, you know, put aside issues of incentives put aside, you know, worried about power corrupting people and they're just being nefarious and wiping out their enemies. But just yet, central planners, if they don't have market prices, they're groping in the dark. Was the terminology he used. Even ex post, even looking backwards to say, up, we had the steel and the rubber and the worker hours, and we made this many cars, this many diapers and this many houses. And just to say after the fact, was that a good use of our resources or next year, should we tweak the plans? They would have no way of knowing. You know, the public could say, we'd like cars and they say, do we like diapers? Yeah, but the trade offs, when you start getting real specific, it really comes down to you don't know what the economic cost is of using resources in one line versus another. And that's in the market economy. That's what prices do for you. That's why you need private property and money is so that those prices can be formed in a, you know, a bidding process on an open market. And it, like you say, it sort of generates guidance or information for entrepreneurs. That's what accounting is. After the fact, when you ask your cpa, did we turn a profit or not, in a sense, that's like saying, did we make good use of society's scarce resources?

Right.

That's kind of stuff that the Austrians, you know, explicate. And you're right, a lot of the socialists back then, they, they thought that was all just, you know, people pushing papers around with their top hats on and meant nothing. Let's produce for the people. But like you're saying, even if you wanted to, what does that mean? That people want more houses and they want more diapers. How do you know what the trade off is?

Yeah, I know, it's, it's just Impossible. So price discovery is an incredibly important mechanism. But what do you say to people who say capitalism is. Is now failing? I don't think it's really capitalism that is failing. It's certainly not perfect. It's really. The problem is we have so much cronyism going on, and these monopolistic practices by big banks, by Wall street, by big tech companies, you know, that's the problem. I don't know. That's my opinion. But what do you think?

Oh, yeah, I think you're right. And, you know, I try to, like, do a little thought experiment. Like, you could have the average, you know, person who's critical of the United States or whatever. And on the one hand, you could say to them, hey, why do we have fdic? Oh, because before that, you know, there were wildcat banks and whatever. In the 20s, it was led to the great treasure. Okay, why do we have the sec? Oh, same thing. You don't want to have these wildcat investors and there's no limits and stuff. You got to have tight regulation to keep these companies, hon. Okay, why do we have the Federal Reserve? Oh, for. To promote stability. And why do we have the faa? Oh, because otherwise airlines wouldn't be doing maintenance. Planes be falling out of the sky. You can't leave it to the free market. You could go through all the government programs and agencies and they would explain, because if we didn't have those, it would be the nightmarish free market. So, you know, you walk them through and take 10 minutes, and then when a problem happens, they would say, oh, there's the free market for you. Even though they just got through explaining why all this myriad regulations and thousands of government employees and, you know, trillions of dollars every year is spent to avoid the horrors of a free market. But yet it's still the free market's fault when that system that they just endorsed leads to failure. So again, that doesn't prove that an unregulated laissez faire outcome would be better, but it certainly means what's happening now. Like, you can't blame the Great Recession on unbridled capitalism because, no, all those programs were in place. The housing bubble George Bush took credit for. We are getting more Americans into houses than would happen if it weren't for our programs. Right. So you can't have it both ways that everyone's admitting we're not letting the free market work because they think that would be a disaster, and then a disaster still happens and they blame the market.

Yeah, well, of course, there was the community Reinvestment act and all of you know, that was all government stuff that was being pushed that corrupted the whole system. Of course, like anything, it's complicated and I'm not a radical libertarian, but I do think some like infrastructure things, it's just sort of convenient to have government do some things, to use this metaphor, you know, in a 10 story building, say it's a government building, I'll keep the first three floors of government people but fire the other seven.

Right, right.

So you know, for some basic stuff it's okay, but I think for a lot of the non basic stuff that is regulated. Now the way you could solve that problem from more of a free market perspective is you could say for example, if it was building codes. Right. Or you know, could be the faa, could be whatever.

Right.

Or banks, you could just require that they have to have insurance and then an insurance company is in charge of inspecting the building or inspecting the airplane or whatever else. Right. And a lot of people are thinking, no way I'm going to leave that to an insurance company. Well, I don't know, you're going to leave it to an incompetent, non motivated government bureaucrat. You know, it's a trade off. I'm not sure which one's better or worse. And you could just make it the law that they have to have the insurance, period. Like if you don't have the insurance, you're going to go to jail.

Right, right.

So every company would have insurance, then a market would develop that would provide insurance and the insurance companies would try to protect their risk and so forth. The problem though comes in when you have that profit motive, it always tends to devolve into this very short term thinking where it's like, okay, the CEO of the insurance company cares about the results during their tenure, which might be four years long, or they care about the next quarter because they've got shareholders. So you know, government not being motivated by that, there is some legitimate claim to having government involved in some things. I believe at least, you know, I don't think the free market can do everything, but it can do a lot more.

Yeah, right, yeah. So just to respond, so to be clear, like it's true where I am now, you know, being older and hopefully wiser than I was like when I was 25 or something back when I was a, you know, rabid libertarian and everything, I agree that markets, you know, human beings and just with the profit motive and you know, the incentives that are in play, they don't perform as well as my 25 year old self would have thought that, you know, there's human ability to deceive yourself and to just, you know, cater to laziness and, and so forth, like that's there. But on the other hand, if you take those same people who, you know, don't necessarily respond to all the right profit motives and put them into the government sector too, it's not obvious to me. So just to give it a quick example, when there's a plane crash, even if they go and do the inspector, you know, the ex post research and whatever investigation and they find it's because the FAA was understaffed, they didn't, you know, the people missed their maintenance and so on, the FAA is going to get more funding, right? So it's a weird system where, I'm not saying they would intentionally let planes crash, but it's a weird system where if the government agency fails, typically that means they get more money. Whereas if it's a system like you're talking about where there's competing insurance companies and they're on the hook, like they could say if there's a plane crash then we owe the estates of all the dead passengers a million dollars each or something. And then yeah, the insurance company is going to have an incentive to send out inspectors to do random sobriety checks to make sure the pilot's not drunk and stuff like that. And they might screw up and you know, human, humans are humans, but at least if they're on the hook, they're out millions of dollars and so probably they're not going to let that happen again. And if it's too bad that company goes out of business and there's competitive.

I think it has to be worse than that. I think it has to be. We really need to re examine the way people are allowed to abuse corporations and entities. Be jail. Like it has to be more serious than that. We've all seen, you know, the way the banksters just abuse the system and the tech companies abuse the system. I mean, for example, we'll take the censorship that's going on in the big tech world, right? Why aren't people being prosecuted for that? I mean this is literally, I don't want to say the C word because then you know, every tinfoil hat person will say oh, that's crazy. But it is that, that right? And literally the government colluding with tech companies to control what you can say and what you can see. That's insanity in this country. Like that's, that's a violation of our civil rights. That's Just like a police officer beating you up, that should be criminally prosecuted. It has to be. It can't just be. Because the problem is the people losing the money usually aren't the CEOs, they're the shareholders that are paying the fines. You know, you find Goldman sucks. And it's not the executives paying for that, it's the shareholders. Right. Like, it's all just, it's all just passed through.

So I agree with you that, you know, maybe the system I just sketched, you know, you could, you could worry about, well, it's not adequate. But I guess what I'm trying to get across is like, even if massive multimillion dollar fines aren't sufficient, giving the FAA more money, you know, maybe like the head has to resign or something is a show of, you know, some head's got to roll. But, but if the agency gets more money, like the entrenched bureaucrats, that, that's also even, even worse. So I agree. And also, like you're saying, it's not surprising that the government's not cracking down on tech companies doing what the government itself was colluding with them to do. So it is, it is this tricky thing where the government, you know, you could break it down and say, okay, but like, state and local are different entities. In federal, I get it. But in general, it's, it's tricky where the government has kind of got its hand in everything and is also running the legal, you know, the courts and the, and the police function. So it's going to be, it's going to be unlikely to, you know, to police itself.

Right, right. No, it's definitely tricky. Let's talk about something else that I think is really important for people to understand. When you're looking at the plumbing and the way the system works. Right. Do you want to talk at all, Bob, about how, how money is created, how it's lent into existence and how. Absolutely this system is just smoke and mirrors. I mean, it's, it's really an incredible feat of deception. They have created. Isn' Right?

I think so. So it's. And this is something to where my own understanding has evolved. So lots of people, when they see, like, how the central banks work, and especially, you know, since they've severed their tide of gold, they know that that's fiat money and it makes. Oh, yeah. When the Federal Reserve buys assets, it just, you know, credits numbers to people's accounts and they see where that comes from. But it's even more than that. Even just the commercial banks, there's A sense in which right. When they, when they grant a loan, there's more constraints on them. But still in essence, in terms of the accounting, when a commercial bank grants a loan, its assets and liabilities go up simultaneously, whereas other businesses. That's not how it works. And so it is just a cliched example. I put a thousand dollars in cash into my checking account, so the bank's assets and liabilities go up by a thousand. And then if they lend 900 of that out to somebody else, their assets and liabilities have just gone up by another 900. And yet there's a sense in which that's the same thousand dollars, but now there's an extra 900. Even economists, like, in terms of like M1 and M2, that would be counted. So like M1 literally just went up $900 because the bank made that loan. And so that's the sense in which even just, yeah, the private commercial banks through their lending and credit decisions can expand or contract the money supply broadly construed. And that ties into, like I say earlier, the, the Austrian view of what causes the business cycle that they're saying that not only is that system weird, but it actually, it's very disruptive to the broader economy.

So any action steps people can take from, you know. Well, maybe first, what is coming? And of course the most basic question there is inflation or deflation or stagnation or combination of two of those. And any action steps people can take.

Okay, sure. So as far as what's coming, I'm confident in saying I think there's going to be a recession. And there's various reasons. The inverted yield curve in a nutshell is the thing that makes me think that's going to happen. And that ties in with the standard Austrian view of the thing that I've been talking about in this discussion, that if the banking system and expanding the money supply and contracting it, what would happen with interest rates? If that theory is basically right, you would expect the yield curve to be upward sloping during a boom and to then invert when they slam the brakes right before a crash happens. So it kind of all fits together. So I do think they might not know it in real time, but looking back to say when did the next recession happen? I think it's either end of what, 20, 23 or first quarter. 24 is the one they're going to date it and I think it's probably going to be a severe one just given the distortions. What they did after Covid and so forth was pumping money in as far as inflation deflation, that one's trickier because they've actually have been tightening, like M2, which is what particular measure of the money stock that's down now compared to a year ago? So they flooded the market 2020, and then now lately they've been pulling it back. But I am just saying that it's standard measures of inflation. If they keep tight like this, I think are going to keep coming down until it's clear a crash is coming and then maybe they're going to reopen the monetary spigot. So it's hard to say how do those two factors. But I think definitely the broad pattern is the economy is going to go into recession and then the Fed's going to revert course and start cutting interest rates and letting new money pump into the system. But right now, they really have been turning off the spigot, trying to get measures of price inflation under control.

Right, right. But the amazing thing, I think, to all of us, though, is how the employment market has held up and how the real estate market has held up. I mean, the cost of money on real estate has pretty much tripled. It's shocking that it is doing as well as it is. There's. The supply is still short, there's just a massive shortage of houses. Employment is strong, surprisingly resilient. You know, Wall street is surprisingly resilient. I mean, this is historic the way they are tightening and economy still is kind of chugging along surprisingly well.

Right. So, yeah, with all those things you mentioned, I can sit here and try to come up with, you know, like with the housing, I've heard anecdotal things from Realtors like, well, what's going on is mortgage rates are up so much, nobody wants to sell because they don't want to get into a new mortgage with a higher. And so that's why the supply is still constrained, you know, that sort of thing. And that's keeping price. And I get that, but it's only because we're seeing these things that I would have not expected that then I'm sitting here trying to come up with explanations for it. You're right. I would have thought the unemployment rate would be higher now than it is. And yeah, there's people can get into wells because some people left the labor force. And. And that's all true, but still, if you had asked me six months ago and told me this is what the Fed's going to do with interest rates, this is what's going to happen to M2, I would have thought the Unemployment rate would be higher now. And so having said all that, though, I still do think that. Yeah, give it another six months. I think real estate prices are going to be lower and unemployment rate is going to be higher.

Can you give us any ranges on those?

Well, okay, so as far as the.

Real estate, I disagree with you on the real estate, by the way, but go ahead.

Okay. Well, I think it's going to be regional and again, I know I'm not saying anything magical here, but I do think like, like the trends of, you know, people fleeing certain states and going, you know, south typically, I think you're going to see that. So, yeah, it's. I think real estate in New York and California is going to be worse than. Might not be so bad in Florida. You know, say that unemployment. I hesitate to say specific numbers, but I, it wouldn't surprise me if the unemployment rate is 7% by January.

That'll be a tough one. By January, maybe.

Let me give myself a little bit more, let's say a year from now. Now, yeah, it's.

But that's, that's pretty significant. So where are those layoffs going to come? I mean, we've had big rounds of tech company layoffs, but I think, you know, I think that's a. Compared to what? Question. Because those companies were overstaffed, they're overfunded, they're just. Tech companies are just dysfunctional. Those aren't real businesses. You know, real businesses make profits. Right. Those are just companies that are making money by raising money. Right. That's not a business. Okay. You know, that's the Uber model. Right. You know, it's silly, but where will the layoffs come from? Restaurants are understaffed. I mean, who's getting laid off? Is it AI people?

It may be blamed on AI, you know, I mean, like in practice, that may be the appearance of it. By the way, let me just admit I was forgetting where we were on the calendar. I think by March it could be as high as 7%. Right. I do think there's going to be a significant crash that's going to hit. You're right. Like, that may be the, the catalyst that might look to like people that. Oh, it's the AI throwing those people out. So you're right. All those sort of digital services, again, things that, like, I know a bunch of people like lawyers who their bread and butter is just setting up people in wills and whatever. It's kind of like there's a form and they just meet with the client and fill out or a lot of you know, financial services and sales and things like that, where it's. It's pretty cookie cutter. Yeah. I think all that's going to get taken over by AI but again, it's. It's not merely that the AI is doing it. I think you would have seen these layoffs, and the AI might just sort of concentrate it in certain sectors.

Sure. Yeah. Yeah. Very interesting. Well, I know we've got to wrap it up, Bob, any final thoughts you want to share? And then please do give out your website, too, in general.

So, you know, what do people do? I mean, this is standard stuff that I would say in any environment, but again, I would encourage people to try to diversify their sources of income and again, start coming up with a diversified plan of, you know, the assets you're accumulating. Because the future really is going to be a lot different from what we're thinking now. And I think you want to maintain, you know, your agility and being able to. To hop from one to another once you get more information. So I know that's somewhat generic, but for people who need an extra kick in the pants, I would say go ahead and start that other business or whatever you've been thinking about, because you might lose your main job soon. And my website is. Bob, Murphyshow.com is where my podcast is, and you can see links to everything else I got going on.

All right, good stuff. Bob Murphy, thank you so much for joining us. Really interesting conversation. Great insights. Of course, your books are available in all the usual spots with great reviews. We appreciate having you on.

Thanks for having me, Jason. It was a pleasure.

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