2288: Real Estate Market Outlook: Rates, Inventory, and the Coming Surge with Paul Lizell

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Welcome to episode 2288. I am here with my friend Paul Lizell. He is a very experienced real estate investor, real estate educator, and he invests in some other stuff too. We might talk about that, you never know, but we are at a mastermind and I just wanted to give you some insights about what other people see going on in the market. People who are not in the theory world. We talk to them a lot. We talk to economists, we talk to lots of people like that, but people who are actually on the ground doing deals every single day. And that's what you've got today. By the way, if you don't have your tickets yet for Empowered Investor live, go to empoweredinvestorlive.com and get them and be sure to join us. Join me along with Sharon Lecter, Mike Maloney, Tom Wheelwright and a whole bunch of other great speakers for two and a half days in Irvine, California. We look forward to seeing you there. EmpoweredInvestorLive.com Paul, welcome. How you doing?

Good, how you doing? Jason, thanks for having me here.

Hey, we've never done a show. I've known you for many, many years and we always talk about real estate and stuff. And I thought, why not just give the listeners your Perspective from a guy on the ground. You know, what's happening? How's the market been? I mean, for us, it's been kind of frozen. You know, a really sort of anemic market with very little activity, activities way down. Prices have been going up a little bit. They're not going up as fast as they were, but you know, they're still going up a little bit. We had a lot of doom and gloomers predicting crashes that didn't happen. But you know, what do you think? I mean, you've got your. You've got your finger on the pulse every day. Just like you said.

It's kind of was trading sideways a little bit in that real estate's not doing a whole lot. Inventory is not dramatically increasing. It's going up a little bit.

Right. But it's still.

We're still not near normal level.

Right. We've only got about half of normal inventory. Yeah. But you know what's interesting about that before we go on, Paul, that half of normal figure that is accurate is half of normal ten years ago with a lower population. So actually on a per capita basis, inventory is much less than half of normal.

Yeah.

Although it is higher than obviously during the COVID era, which it got to historic lows. Yeah.

And that's what really pushed up a lot.

Right.

We had historic low rates too. And that drove up those prices in 2020, 2021 through 2022. And now what we're seeing is higher rates. Right. About 6.8%, I think is the national average right now in a 30 year.

And that's for owner occupied.

Yeah, for owner occupied. And that's keeping a lot of people on a sideline.

Right.

Cause a lot of people can't afford houses that would. You know, if rates are in five and a half. I think we talked about this a while ago. How many more people enter?

Million. Yes. I mean, if we see rates trickle down into the mid fives, literally millions more people will be able to afford a house. Right now we have a market where we have approximately 650,000 homes for sale in a country with 140 million housing units and 340 million people. So it's extremely low, extraordinarily low. And what's interesting too is not only do we look at the new buyers that would be able to afford a house with rate changes, of course, that's without prices increasing. So at the same price, lower rate, much more affordable, millions more people can afford to buy it. They move into a market with limited inventory and the dam just breaks. It happens very quickly. But also we have millions and millions of people who have been wanting to buy a home for the past few years since we saw historic rate increases.

Right.

And they haven't been able to afford to. So there's this, all this pent up demand issue, right?

Pent up demand is big. And that's where if the rates do go down and say five and a half, five and three quarters, I think you're gonna have another feeding friends where the prices really have a temporarily big surge again. And artificially kind of. It's not really artificial. I mean it's a natural market. It's what people want. If people are trying to afford a certain payment, there's monthly payment you can afford granting whether it's a car, whether dinner going out or whether it's a house. No matter what it is.

Well, you can finance your dinner now.

You can finance your dinner.

And by the way folks, what I'm referring to, you may have seen this on the news, but companies like Klarna and afterpay, you can now finance your meals from doordash Chipotle. I mean isn't this, this is scary. Honestly, this is not bullish, folks. Someone posted on Facebook one of my friends the other day that he bought a meal at Chipotle Halt way for like 12 bucks and Klarna showed that he could make five payments of $2 and 57 cents each on the meal. Wow. If that doesn't show that the wealth gap is increasing, I don't know what does. That's, that's not good.

That's saggingly bad for the economy, for people. And I do have a lot of worry because look, there's a lot of people. My kids, my three boys are 22, 20 and 18. For them to buy a house can be really difficult for that future, especially.

Anywhere they buy or not when they're your kids, because you can, you have lots of money. Our generation. Yeah, the generational. Yeah, you're absolutely right. Well, so talk about that a little more.

Yeah, that. I mean it's worth me a lot. Just because the housing affordability gap, it's been big for a little while now, but it's excessively grown since COVID That really pushed everything up. The pandemic did. And now you have people that are going to be potentially forever renters. And there's always been forever runners, right? There's nothing to matter with that. Being a forever renner especially gives you flexibility to move. And millennials liked it for a while, right? They like to be Able to live in one place, then move to another place. But eventually they wanted to settle down and they started buying homes. That happens. Junior 30, have a family, you want to do all that. And with the prices continuing to go up and if wages don't go up at that same level or beyond, it's just the housing affordability is just going to continue to grow. Now there's different things people are doing to try to make housing more affordable. You know, 3D printed housing you could do.

Which by the way, neither of those are really a solution. We've done shows on that before for sure.

I mean, the portability is just not there. And even the use the container hubs, Right. It's still pretty expensive to fit them things.

Oh, it's very expensive to convert shipping containers into houses and not that many people want to live in them anyway.

So it's not that cheap. I mean, you can go prefabricated stuff, right? But it's not going to be great quality. So I don't know where we're heading with that. And I don't know whether it's going to be some kind of new boom. Maybe the AI boom can really push people's wages up and give entrepreneurial opportunities that maybe then housing will come a little more affordable.

But I don't know that the AI boom pushes, I mean, it certainly pushes some people's wages up, especially business owners who can use AI to scale and increase their business and make it more efficient and do it with fewer employees. Right. It makes them richer for sure, because their productivity increases massively. But the thing it does is it makes a lot of the other expenses we have cheaper. Right. Because I, I did a newsletter article which by the way, if you're not subscribed to my newsletter, go to jason hartman.com Put your name in on any web form and get on our newsletter list. Because I did this article about AI agents, which you are certainly well aware of. I mean, we are all going to have a whole bunch of AI assistants, right? Very soon. Some of us do already. Very soon. They're going to be free or cheap. They're going to do a lot of things for us. They're going to free up a lot of productivity. And what I mean by that is I'm just talking about the typical average person with a day job, right. If a lot of their life can be managed by AI, it's kind of like they hired a nanny. Yeah, right. And now they've freed up some extra time to be creative, to start a side hustle. To make more money. It does that, but it also makes a lot of the products and services people buy cheaper. Yes. Sadly though, I don't think it does much for housing cost.

I agree with you.

Because it's a low tech item. Houses are a low tech item. Right. There's not very disruptible.

No, that's not, it's not. I, I just don't see how it would do anything for housing, for material a little bit.

I mean look at, there are supply chains that could make more effic efficient. But you know, software has already done that decades ago.

But yeah, so it's, it's this whole tech agent. Maybe it makes. Like you said, it's going to make businesses more efficient.

Sure.

Maybe to bring costs down of certain things. Perhaps. But you know, copper would you need for wiring for like. That's not going to be going down. That's very volatile. That's a commodity that's going up pretty drastically right now.

And as more demand happens, the prices go up. Yes. So you need more houses to satisfy all this pent up demand and there goes your copper prices.

Yeah, yeah, no doubt.

Drywall, lumber, concrete, glass, steel, everything. All the ingredients.

Yeah, it's a brainstorming, trying to figure out how you can make things more affordable. I think you can go to a small house.

Right.

People are, I think we shrink back to maybe your traditional three to 1500 square foot home. That's one way to bring costs down. But if you have a big family that's. We grew up in that with big families.

People did it in, in, you know, the post World War II baby boom. You know, the typical house in, you know, Levitt Town or Lakewood, California or wherever. You know, two, three bedrooms, one bath, 1100 square feet.

You make it work.

Right. People manage it. Yeah, and that's a good point. You know, that's something economists never seem to really see or evaluate when they're looking at like the housing market. People will simply accept less. They have to come to reality. It's not that they won't be able to afford a house, whether it be for rent or for sale. It's just that they take less of a house. Right.

Less demand for McMansions.

Right.

Those things maybe start going away.

Yeah, well, I mean, as long as the wealth gap stays the same.

Right.

You know, there will always be the super wealthy and maybe that'll become even more concentrated. We don't know.

Could be. But if we get manufacturing back to this country again a bit more and I know Trump's trying to Lower wages. Right. And then you have a better middle class.

Right.

And then potentially you have more people that qualify to be able to buy homes and is that could be something, that's something we really need. And we lost that in the 90s when Clinton moved everything with NAFTA and everything going to China.

So. Hey, Ross Perot, remember him?

Yeah, he was great.

Remember Ross?

I voted for him.

Yeah, he was great. That giant sucking sound, that's exactly what happened. All the jobs got sucked out of America and Clinton sold you down the river.

And he knew it. He knew way before anybody else. Smart guy. I mean billionaire. And he would have been a great president had he gotten the opportunity to back then, like I said, it was first presidential election for me and I voted for.

I, I would have loved to have Ross Perot. But you know, a lot of people say Rossborough was the reason we got Bill Clinton.

Yes, probably.

Unfortunately.

Right. Which led to all disaster that we have now. But if we can slowly turn this big ship around, you know, it might take 20 years but hopefully we get to a point again where we have a flourishing middle class, some more prosperity and because we need a strong middle class to make a country. Right. Not that middle class, the country starts to really dwindle and then you have class warfare and all this.

I'm a big fan of the middle class. If you want to have a stable country, you must have a big middle class.

Yes.

Yeah.

That's where most of families come from.

Oh yeah, of course. No, very important. Have you ever wondered how the top real estate investors consistently find the best deals before anybody else? Well, listen up because this can transform how you invest. I'm excited to share something that's revolutionizing the real estate game. It's called Connected Investors. This is a really cool platform that gives you access to all of the property records nationwide. Truly amazing. It's not just a platform though. It's a secret weapon. It does a whole bunch of things besides the property data. It's a social network as well. It's built by successful real estate investors. For real estate investors, find off market deals instantly, access accurate ownership contact info, make smart data driven decisions and secure funding for your deals from a vast network of private and hard money lenders. Whether you're a beginner or a pro, Connected Investors is your go to tool for smarter, faster and more efficient Investing. Try a seven day free trial@JasonHartman.com Connected Again, that's JasonHartman.com Connected and let us know how much you love this software. Okay, so where do you see the market going? I mean, you said to me before that you thought interest rates are, you know, they're trickling down, they're going to get down this year. Do you think we'll get mortgage rates into the mid fives this year?

I'm thinking we will get somewhere around 5.75 or at least by the end of the year.

He's so five and three or four.

Yeah, which, which would be great.

Right.

Five and a half would be super ideal. I don't know if we'll ever see those fours or threes for a little while. But now if Trump has his way, he'll keep buying that 10 year treasury and we'll get those rates now.

Right.

But we need, we need different things to happen. Obviously, appetite for our debt is not out there right in the world.

But the thing is, if we do see rates that low, we see millions of new people who can afford a house. So we're talking a lot about the potential for prices to increase, which I think is very, very possible.

Yes.

Okay. Even if we have an overall recession, you know, that doesn't mean we have a housing recession. Right. There can be an economic recession without a housing recession where house prices can still go up. But one thing that few people talk about, everybody's speculating on housing prices, but they don't talk much about rents. Yes. And the point is people need to buy rent or be homeless. Right. I mean, say for example, that case doesn't happen. Like if that's your base case, the prices are going up. I think it's happening. There's upward pressure on rents too. What do you think about rent?

It'll continue to push rents up.

Right.

Because people can't afford housing, they got to live somewhere. So rents will naturally increase with that. I mean, great for us being landlords.

Right.

Continue to go up over time. It needs to because our, our insurance costs are going up, real estate taxes are going up and all these other costs, utility costs for people are going up too. So if the rates don't go down, then yeah, we're gonna be pretty stable. Maybe price wise, if we stay longer, if prices or rates went 8, then we'd be looking housing restriction potentially, Right?

Yeah, I agree. That would definitely have a downward impact. I mean, talk about demand destruction. So if we had mortgage rates of 8, we would see housing prices fall. It's unlikely that we'll see the, I mean, we did bump up against those rates somewhat recently, but there was so little inventory that the prices still kept going up. Right. But what happens to rents in that case? I mean if people can't buy, they have to rent.

Have to.

Population still increasing, there's tons of pent up demand.

They're still going to go up rents, right?

Yeah.

To me I think both ways rents end up going up. Rents generally will go down if there's a major economic depression. Right. If we like the financial crisis, 2008 rent.

But yeah, but I argue that the rents dropped slightly during that. It wasn't huge, but that was because of government store track that now there may be government distortion again, we just don't know. But the, the whole VIBE in that 2008 election, you know, Obama and McCain were both saying oh we gotta keep people in their houses.

Yes.

And so they wouldn't allow price discovery to happen. And you had a schoolteacher on a, you know, relatively low income living in a $900,000 house in Calabasas, California. Like it was absurd. It was, you know, he or she should have never qualified for that mortgage. So yeah, Ninja no income, no income verification. Yeah, but keep people in their houses is fine as long as that's a house they deserve to be in.

Yes.

And that's the distortion that happened. And that's why when didn't go up.

No, that was an Asia problem. Yeah, right. If they did not, they didn't go down. Like you said that really that much. And that was when I was pick up a lot of back cardio. It was really, really cheap and then turning them into rentals and that was a great time to be doing that too because they really cash flow and rates were really low at that point. So with that, you know, and then I build up this portfolio and then end up selling it and then I buy more and I do the same. And now I'm in a process again because as we're talking about here, I think rates are going to go down. So I'm buying more to hold. I want to have more rentals and now. But these rentals I think I will hold for a long period of time and if rates go down, I'll just refinance them.

When did you start real estate Investing? What year?

2001.

So 2001, that was a crazy time. Yeah, it was. The dot com bubble had just happened. 9, 11 happened and interest rates were coming down quick and prices started to skyrocket. But during the Great Recession, you know, now we're looking at 2008. Right. You were buying Paul, you had to have a lot of confidence to buy at that time. Tell me about that mentality.

Let me tell you what the banks did at this point because this was really interesting. And I buy pretty much exclusively bank owned properties. I was buying them off HUD, home store.

Yep.

And there were properties listed for 230,000 that I was getting for 90,000.

Wow.

And I was wholesale to investors for 155, 160. So there was a big disparity.

So 230 or 290 that an investor would buy for 160.

Yes.

Okay. Yeah.

And it was good return for them. They did a fix and flip where they bought it and kept it as a rental. So there was great opportunities like that where they were just willing to take such a, a haircut to get away because they knew there was so much inventory. They had such shadow inventory.

Right, okay, so I'm glad you said that. So that was an era during the Great Recession of shadow inventory. And there was a lot of talk back then in the media about don't release this inventory too quick. You know, slow it down too, so you don't tank the market. You know, that was done to some extent. But right now what we have is we have shadow demand.

Yes.

Not shadow inventory. We have a different problem now, which is an opportunity, I'd say, for investors. But yeah, talk about that.

I agree. There's just huge opportunity. And again, rates come down here, that's going to cause another potential builder's boom too. Right. Because the builders need the rates to be lower so they can afford the holding costs while they're building here. So that's another potential thing for investors here too, with the building potential building boom. But you need rates low. And this is everything's rate dependent. Trump knows they're right. You know, he knows he wants to keep rate, get rates as low as he can. So this opportunity comes and we gotta be ready to jump on as investors.

For sure. Yeah. Okay, well, I want to talk about the confidence you have to have to invest when most people are saying don't invest. Okay, talked about that for a minute. Then I want to talk about some Trump policies that are interesting.

So for me, it was really, really simple when I was looking at buying these properties and what I could purchase them for was way cheaper than anything else that is sold, say the last 90 days on Sillo or on the MLS. If I'm getting them substantially below that, I'm extraordinarily confident.

Right. The thing is though, during the Great Recession, you know, you're thinking long term prices dropped 20%. Right. And some people are thinking all the news Is everything is negative bottoming out. It's going to be way worse. You know, there was so many articles. I mean you listen to Peter Shak and you think things are bad now, it's going to get way worse. You know, the dollar is going to collapse, the economy is going to collapse. I kind of look at people right now listening to these doomers and they're thinking things are going to crash. And I just don't see how that really a real crash happens with such low inventory.

I'm with you 100%. And listen, Warren Buffet said buy when there's blood in the streets.

Right. If you're blood in the streets. There was during the Great Recession.

There was then and there was great opportunity though. You figured, look, when you're picking up properties cheaper than what you could build a house for, I mean it's, it's a no brainer to me. I would have held them all as rentals. I couldn't do anything else would have but so it was great opportunity. Do have to have some foresight for it. But being through cycles growing up in the 80s, 70s 80s and you know that high rates, 18 mortgage rates, we weren't having that. We were more like 7, 8%. Our typical average is what, 8% historically in the country mortgage rate. So we're still below that, which is great. So we had shadow inventory then, now we have shadow demand and interest rates drop, that shadow demand comes out and it pushes that inventory even lower. Which means again, you have a housing issue, prices are going to go up. And now we got a supply issue again. Right. And we got how many people in this country that need houses, that. How many are we short right now? How many units are we.

Well, it depends whose estimate you believe. It's anywhere from 1.5 million to 8 million houses short. Short. That's what they say. And they say this housing shortage, there's really no way it can be cured before 2032. I mean I don't know that except for, and I haven't studied it a lot, but I just know it existed. I know there was a housing shortage after World War II. Yeah, during the baby boom era. And America was building like crazy. But back then construction materials were dirt cheap, land was dirt cheap. It's just not the same world we live in.

You know Alpha's sheep now, right? Yeah, no, we're talking about groceries. I was just talking about it with one of the guys here at our Mastermind. He spent $45,000 last year for groceries. Family of four, groceries and food. Eating out.

Wow.

Crazy, right? $5,000. That's a salary for some people.

Yeah. Oh, sure.

So the cost of everything is dramatic. Now he's buying organic stuff, more expensive stuff, and then we do the same. And I got a family of four and it gets pricey to do that, but it. A lot of people just end up getting priced out here. But this shadow. Let's go back to the shadow demand. That shadow demand. I just don't know how we cure the housing. Like I said before 2032, to me, it might even take a little bit longer than that because of the cost to build more units here. That if rates don't get down low enough, I don't think that's cured.

Right.

Because it doesn't become affordable. It doesn't make sense for an investor to go build something he's not gonna be able to sell and make a profit for.

Yeah, yeah. Let me just say to the listeners and viewers for a second, my like big long prediction and chime in on this. I don't know if you'll agree with it or not, but my prediction is we are going to have a very severe housing shortage through about the early 2000 and 30s. I agree with that prediction. And then I think we'll continue to have a good solid investment market through the late 2000-40s. This is a very long term prediction. Right. But after that, I think we have a real demographic cliff problem. Of course, we don't know what immigration will be. We don't know if people will start having lots of babies for some reason. But at least if we follow the trend line now, the late 2000 and 40s are going to be the time where I'm not going to recommend real estate investing anymore because I think you've got. Until then, you've got some pretty strong opportunities and you go to retirement and set your life up for financial freedom.

Then you could have oversupply is what you're thinking at that point.

Yeah. Like Japan.

Look, we're not, we're not having enough kids. That's an issue. Elon Musk talks about that.

Sure.

Too. Right. I mean, we got.

He has 12 years. A lot.

He's a lot. I did my part.

I did four.

But there's definitely not enough people having kids. So I do think if you get a more flourishing middle class, you will naturally have more because those generally be your baby producers right there. Those people in that demographic. So the more affluent you are, the less children you generally have.

Right.

Poorer you are sometimes. I have a lot of kids that get welfare.

No, but I mean, there's a lot of layers that. There are one of the things that happens when people get money, a lot of it. Whoever has the money, the man or the woman. Right. Becomes really careful about marriage.

Oh, yes.

Because they want to protect their wealth and they think rightfully so that other person could steal half their wealth. Right, right. And so they get more careful. Poor people, they're not careful because they don't have anything to lose. Right. So it's unfortunate that the laws are set up the way they are. And. And, you know, that's a whole nother discussion. But that's what happens.

Yeah. And that's. That is unfortunate, but that is absolutely.

And the other thing that happens is when more people become urban, they have a lot less children. Because in a city, you know, you're living in a high rise and you just don't have room for kids versus if you live in a single family house in suburbia or in the country, you got lots of room for children.

Absolutely. A white picket fence, a hole, nine yards. And that's. That's what people are shooting for. And that did happen for the millennials. They did that. And question is, will this happen for Chen Z? Will they be able to.

I mean, it happens with a baby. Millennials aren't having many kids.

They are not many kids.

And they're doing everything, but they're doing everything much later in life. You got to have 2.1 children per woman to have replacement rate. And in the third world or the really bad developing countries at 3.5 because of infant mortality. That's. That's the difference.

Like you said, Japan's one where it's really low. South Korea.

Oh, South Shore's got below his birth rate on Earth.

Crazy.

They're always disturbed they're going extinct.

Yeah. I mean, North Korea is way out producing that.

Oh, I know. Yeah. Go figure. Isn't that weird?

It's very strange, very interesting. But yeah, we'll see where things lay out here. But I do see rates definitely going down this year, in my opinion. I think they're going to be going down this year, and I think they're going to try to force them that as much. Again, the Fed's got to refinance what two we've got.

I heard it was $7 trillion worth of debt in the next few months. And that is going to have huge pressure on reduced rates, folks. Rates are very likely to go down because the government has to pay the rate too. Okay. And they don't want to they don't want to be burdened. They can't afford it.

Yeah, yeah. I mean see how that, that's a factor. We're looking at everything at 2 money supply rate, global money supply and what brings in investment opportunities too. And that will push things into real estate, push boot risk on assets up.

Right.

Real estate, stock market, cryptos, all these things will continue to go up. Look at Goldstone and silver stone. It's very interesting with, with what's going on there. There's potential. I mean I think there's a lot of government activity picking up a lot of the gold. Silver too. The backstop things.

Yeah, yeah. It would take a whole hour to talk about gold and silver. So let's not do that. But I want to ask you before you go about some Trump policies. Okay. So we've got these cross currents. We've got deporting illegals that make up about 13% of the construction workforce. That's known is probably higher because they hide. Okay. So let's say illegals make up 20% of the construction workforce. Construction labor has a huge shortage. You know this, you do remodels, you know how hard it is to get people. So that's one factor that would push prices up of rentals and for sale units. Right. Then we look at the tariffs and all the inputs to a house that are going to be tariffed.

What are your thoughts on that'll push things up more? For sure. There's an push it up a little bit more which leads to the whole melt up. Everything's going to end up getting pushed up in price. What do we go up 3% Ashley, in real estate last year we're probably going to go at least that this year. I would estimate especially if rates drop.

We could easily see, you know, 9, 10% appreciation this year. But that has to be a significant drop. It does if they don't. I've been just predicting we see a modest like non eventful year of 4% appreciation. Like nothing much.

Kind of like a repeat of last year.

Yeah, just a anemic year like it's been. But it's interesting because Scott Bessant, the Treasury Secretary made a statement about two weeks ago that said in just a few weeks the real estate market is about to unfreeze. How you keeping that promise? That only means lower rates. His department. Right.

A hundred percent. But they're buying a 10 year treasury right to try to buy down the rates to try to get that. And it's worked. It's, it's been dropping.

Right.

And the Federal Reserve was like said going to have to do it as well and follow suit with the short term rates and that usually leads to also that 10 year going down as well. So I think we got some interesting times coming up. I'm bullish on this year real estate. I'm going to keep buying, I'm going to keep adding rentals, I'm going to keep flipping to do all these different things. And yeah, I'm excited for it. I think there's great opportunities.

Yeah, good stuff. If you'd like to learn more about Paul, his companies and his educational programs, check out jason hartman.com REO as in real estate owned jason hartman.comREO happy investing everybody. Get your tickets for Empowered Investor live. Empowered Investorlive.com Happy investing. We'll see you next time. Thank you so much for listening. Please be sure to subscribe so that you don't miss any episodes. Be sure to check out the show's specific website and our general website, hartmanmedia.com for appropriate disclaimers and terms of service. Remember that guest opinions are their own and if you require specific legal or tax advice or advice in any other specialized area, please consult an appropriate professional. And we also very much appreciate you reviewing the show. Please go to iTunes or Stitcher Radio or whatever platform you're using and write a review for the show. We would very much appreciate appreciate that and be sure to make it official and subscribe so you do not miss any episodes. We look forward to seeing you on the next episode.