2355: The Pass-Through Asset Truth: Why Massive Rent Increases Are Coming SOON and Long-Term Care Insurance with Aaron Miller

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Hey Jason.

Just wanted to send you a quick message of gratitude.

So grateful that I got into the game and got in with properties that make sense because the rent income keeps coming in. So thank you. Glad we connected and I'm glad to.

Be in the income property game instead.

Of the Wall street game for my future.

Welcome to the Creating wealth show with Jason Hartman. You're about to learn a new slant on investing, some exciting techniques and fresh new approaches to the world's most historically proven asset class that will enable you to create more wealth and freedom than you ever thought possible. Jason is a genuine, self made multimillionaire who's actually been there and done it. He's a successful invest lender, developer and entrepreneur who's owned properties in 11 states, had hundreds of tenants and been involved in thousands of real estate transactions. This program will help you follow in Jason's footsteps on the road to your Financial Independence Day. You really can do it. And now, here's your host, Jason Hartman with the complete solution for real estate investors.

Good day empowered investors and welcome to episode 2355. Greetings from New Orleans. I am just leaving the New Orleans Investment Conference today. Spent a couple of great days here. Hung out with Peter Schiff, Robert Kiyosaki, Brent Johnson, David Colum. All these people have been on the show before. Adam Taggart, whole bunch of others. Anyway, it's been a great time and now I am headed back home. Thank you. But you know again I want to point out that I am not really a real estate investor. Nope. I've said this for 21 years and you are probably not really a real estate investor either. You are a packaged commodities investor. This is a commodities oriented conference. So think about it. When you buy commodities in any other way except as a packaged commodity with a real estate or house label on them, you are not getting the multidimensional, incredible, beautiful aspects of a real estate investment. Most importantly, that 30 year fixed rate government subsidized mortgage that is the trademark, the hallmark of great American real estate deals. So be a packaged commodities investor rather than an investor just buying things on the the commodities exchange or from some commodities person or broker. Okay, let's get into it. So always ask yourself, what are they not telling you? Always when someone presents something. Always when someone presents a chart, an article says something to you, whatever, always say what are they not telling me? So this says the Hamptons luxury housing market you know the Hamptons, New York area, right? The Hamptons luxury housing market is still staging a comeback for the ages. Home sales priced at $10 million or above. The volume has gone way up, almost 100. Home sales $10 million or above. And this chart is comparing the last 10 years and the numbers are higher now, but what is it not telling us? Well, it's not adjusted for inflation. So $10 million is really $7.3 million because the dollar has lost that much value in the 10 year period outlined in the chart. So do you see how misleading this is? The dollar is a moving target, that number is moving around. So when someone tells you that home sales are skyrocketing at these higher values, well, are they really? Or are those really $7.3 million or are they $10 million? You've always got to adjust for inflation. And remember this is understated because this is based on the CP lie, the Consumer Price Index, the cpi, which is a lie, the CP lie. And that is very, very misleading. When you see that it's really $7.3 million in today's dollars, right? Then you start to see the reality isn't as extreme as the Wall Street Journal would like you to believe. And that's where the chart is from, the Wall Street Journal. So just to comment on that, but here is the analysis of it. Okay, so $10,000,003, right? Or $10,003,670.62 equals 7.3 million of buying power. Okay? And that is the important thing to understand. You can adjust inflation in either direction, right? It doesn't matter. But the thing that matters is that you understand. Well, it does matter slightly because it depends what number you're coming from. I'm not a mathematician, but you get the idea, okay, but you know, the basic idea is close enough for government work. And when you adjust for inflation, the story becomes much more clear. Okay? Now here, luxury home price growth outperforming non luxury. This is a rarity, folks. This is a rarity. But what it shows us is that the concentration of wealth is getting bigger and bigger and bigger and we are living in a mass affluent society thanks to the Cantillon effect. Remember that economist I've talked about many times over the years that the people closest to the money printer get the biggest benefits of the money printing. And we have had historic money printing. Great Recession, Covid Biden administration, right? Et cetera, et cetera, right? We have had just a massive increase in money creation and quantitative easing where the Federal Reserve is getting into Markets and buying up assets to make the prices of them go up and make the money supply looser and easier. And so that has consolidated at the top of the market. And I don't mean the real estate market per se, I mean every market where the rich just keep getting so much richer. It is completely unfair, it is terrible, but it is what it is and we have what we have. Remember, one of the steps to mastery is in life is have what you have. It's an acceptance of what is going on and then use my techniques to game the system and win the game. Okay, so that is the thing. So luxury home prices, right, they've grown 4.8% and non luxury home prices only 1.8%. That is so unusual. It is very, very unusual. This is year over year change in median home price for luxury versus non luxury. That is extremely unusual. Usually the lower end of the market is going to appreciate more. That's the normal thing that we would have seen anytime in the last 50, 60 years. But now that is flipping a bit because of the concentration of wealth at the top of the market. It won't always be that way. Probably next year or the year after this equation will flip again and then it will be the lower end, the entry level homes appreciating more than the high end homes. But remember, as this happens, don't make the mistake that so many economists and forecasters make. And it is a huge mistake. Don't make the mistake of thinking that it is the same tenant renting the same house or the same buyer buying the same house. What happens when you have this type of consolidation of wealth at the top, right? That's winner take all society that we live in. What you have is you have people falling down the socioeconomic ladder and accepting less and capitulating again. Economists just don't understand this. They don't say it, but it's what really happens in practice. Every market actor, you, me, everybody else, we go into the marketplace to buy what we want to buy a house, a car, whatever it is. And we look around and we try to strike the best deal we can get. And we accept less than our expectations most of the time, right? Our expectations are usually in the clouds. And what we accept is usually less than that, almost always. So that's just the way it works. Okay? All right. Luxury home inventory has climbed, but prices have gone up more than the low end inventory, which is also a very interesting, unusual thing, right? So the number of luxury homes climbed 7.7% year over year to the highest September level since 2020. Non luxury inventory rose 11.4% to the highest inventory level since September of 2019. So one before COVID and the other after Covid started. So that is kind of interesting. But, you know, again, the overall inventory stats are still very low, historically higher than they've been. Sure, but not a big deal. Not a big deal at all yet. Okay, so that is the same chart.

Okay.

Now here is another interesting thing that shows what is happening with the economy, right? International tourist trips by region of departure. Okay. And it just shows you who's coming to places, who's leaving places, who has money, who doesn't. So this was much higher pre Covid. And then of course, it went to almost nothing during the COVID era, where travel went down the tubes. And it has come back for sure, but again, not back to the prior levels as we start to see more and more people at the lower end of the spectrum or the middle to lower end, struggling more and more. And what does that mean for you? That means there's going to be more upward pressure on rent prices. I know that rents have been boring, muted, a little bit soft for the past couple of years, but there is a lot of factors pointing to increased rents in the very near future, mostly again due to record number of apartment deliveries over the last couple of years. And that is all being absorbed. And once that's absorbed, we're going to see rents tick up quite a bit. There's a lot of upward pressure on rents. I'm seeing it early. Most people aren't seeing this yet, but it's there. Okay. So it is coming. Now, this is interesting too, a chart from statista Talking about US home prices are up 29% since 2019. What's interesting about this is that there are many surveys that would tell you prices are up almost 50%. Okay. It kind of depends what survey you look at so much of the time. Right. But the interesting thing is that the linear markets on the whole had the highest appreciation, leading with Knoxville, Tennessee at 60%. Charleston, North Carolina, by the way, these are both markets we've recommended over the years. Okay. Charleston, North Carolina, 52.4%. And then my old home, South Florida. Right. Miami, Fort Lauderdale, West Palm Beach, 49.1%. Not a linear market. Okay. The other two are linear. That one is cyclical. Syracuse, New York. More linear. Tucson, Arizona, linear. Columbia, South Carolina. We've been in that market, too. Cleveland, Ohio. We've been there. Tulsa, we've been there. Recommending properties many of our clients have purchased in many of these markets over many, many years. So these linear markets on the whole are outperforming the high flying cyclical markets. At the bottom of this list is San Francisco at 1.7%. Now San Francisco's had some unique problems, right? This once beautiful city that has turned into a big government disaster. And with the elections yesterday. Wow. I mean, two old sayings. Number one, people get the government they deserve. And number two, never overestimate the intelligence of the electorate. Okay? It's sad but you know, look at people. People go for instant gratification. It's just human nature. Whoever is giving out the goodies is who they're usually going to vote for. People vote their pocketbook, okay? That's just the way it works, unfortunately. And what that means for us is it means government intervention in the markets which causes shortages. Always and forever. Shortages, Shortages, shortages. And if you own the asset that is in short supply, you are going to win the game. The other thing about that is that all of this leads to more and more inflation. And if you're following my strategy, inflation induced debt destruction, you are also going to win the game. You're going to win the game multiple ways. So good for you. Happy investing. House prices outpaced income growth over the last 40 years. Now this kind of data is not very accurate in some ways because a couple of years ago when we had the low, low Covid era interest rates, house prices, you know, just look at the chart, were outpacing income like crazy. But because the rates were low, houses were actually very affordable at a time before we saw the big price increases and then the subsequent interest rate increases which just made it completely unaffordable. But always remember, income property is a multi dimensional asset. If you've listened to my piece that I call the three dimensions of real estate, you know that all you have to do is adjust your strategy along the way. Sometimes you're in a capital appreciation market where house prices are going through the roof and you're making tons of money. You can execute my refi to die strategy, you can execute my two or three for one exchange, 1031 exchange strategy and you will win the game. Sometimes prices are cool and rents are going up. It's always going to ultimately be one or the other. Always remember when I was on stage yesterday here at the New Orleans Investment conference, I talked about how income property, just like every business, every corporation, income property because it is a business, income property is a pass through asset. So when owners expenses go up, rents go up. It has to happen, nothing else can ultimately happen. Now it does take a little time for this to play out because those expenses can go up. And someone asked about insurance and you know, if you don't own an older house in Florida, your insurance really hasn't been a big deal. Okay, if you've got a newer property, right? But if you've got an older house that was built, you know, decades ago, Florida insurance went through the roof. And that's what the media reported on. And I talked in detail about my insurance on my own Florida properties and how as a percentage it was significant, but as a dollar amount it was not even. It didn't even move the needle. You know, when the Insurance goes up $500 a year, so what? Right? It's just not even worth worrying about. But that ultimately passes through to the tenant. It always does. So always know that. You know, you see minimum wage go up and suddenly all the restaurants increase their prices. And that's just the way it is in every business with every property, it's always a pass through entity. And all of that gets passed through to the customer or the tenant or the renter in terms of inflation, restaurant prices, rents, whatever, doesn't matter. Okay, so we have lower rates. Thank God. Rates are really, really coming down. And I know on a day to day, week to week basis there may be ups and down blips. Okay? The Fed does not control the mortgage rate directly. You know, it is heavily influenced by the 10 year. But there's more to it than just the Fed. It depends on asset purchases and bond sales and all of this stuff, right? Treasuries, etc. But overall the trend is lower rates, which is going to mean higher prices. When you put the explosive nature of lower rates into a limited inventory market, it can't do anything else. You're gonna see higher prices. So get ready for a much more stabilized market coming forward. Packaged commodities investing. I saw this article and I just thought it was interesting because once again, it speaks to my strategy. When you buy a property, you're really buying the ingredients of the property. When you buy a house, you're buying copper wire in the walls, petroleum products, lumber, glass, steel, labor, concrete, all these packaged commodities. And when the prices of those commodities that have universal need all around the world, not attached to any one currency, every human needs them because every human needs shelter, all kinds of other things, you are going to win the game. But you get to finance them with a 30 year mortgage on the most tax favored asset class in America. There are just so many incredible, wonderful things. So when bank of America has an article that says copper could rise up to $15,000 per ton. A huge increase that's just going to make all of your rental properties more and more valuable. So congratulations. Be a packaged commodities investor. All right, so next up, I want to play a short interview that I did about a subject that is probably going to affect all of us and something we should consider. You know, I talk a lot about the Die with Zero book, right. And how we should use our money to enjoy our wealth once we've made it. Right. This does not apply to beginners. You've got to create your wealth and I'm going to help you do that. But once you create it, don't forget to enjoy it. And one of the concerns that so many people have with this strategy is the idea that you might have too much life at the end of the money. And this is going to be a problem for millions and millions of people because we are on the verge of so many longevity breakthroughs. Check out my longevity and biohacking podcast for more on this. There are just so many amazing things going on, but one of the things with this is long term care insurance. Now, I have no affiliation with this or anything, but I just wanted to share this short interview I did because it's a topic we all should consider and should think about. You know, most people are kind of like, well, I don't want to say most people, but most people with some money and means, they're kind of overinsured and they've spent too much money on this stuff. But some people aren't paying any attention to it. But it answers the objection of out spending, outliving your money. Okay. And that's why I wanted to just share this short interview I did fairly recently about long term care insurance. No affiliation with us. We don't make any money off this or anything like that. But I just wanted to share it. In the meantime, if you need help with your investments, reach out to our investment counselors. We are all here to help you on your journey of wealth creation. Go to jasonhartman.com fill out any web form. We'll get in touch. Be sure to use our free AI tool at jasonhartman.com AI or you can just find it on the front page of jasonhartman.com too. And it is trained on thousands of episodes of my podcast, my YouTube channel. You can ask it any question under the sun and you will not believe how smart it is. Yes, I soon will be out of a job too, because I'll be replaced by AI. Anyway, check that out. Jason hartman.com it's the little superhero in the lower right side of the webpage@jason hartman.com use that. Those of you who do use it keep coming back week after week and using it multiple times a week, sometimes multiple times a day. And you're getting tons of answers. You're proposing scenarios to it and just getting all kinds of data on all of my techniques and strategies that I've been teaching for the last 21 years. So take advantage of that. It's totally free, no strings attached. It's great. We've got our property page on there. We are working on training the AI tool. We have my clone essentially on all of our properties that are available and we haven't quite figured that out yet but we are working on it now. You have to look at the properties manually but you can get all the techniques from the AI from the chatbot and you can talk to it on your phone with your voice or you can type. Either way, it's just a super, super handy tool. So let's go to that short segment on long term care insurance.

It is my pleasure to welcome Aaron Miller. He is an attorney based in Texas and he is an expert on long term care insurance, other abuse and some other related topics. Aaron, welcome. How are you?

Hey Jason, thanks for having me. I'm really good.

Good to have you. So let's first dive into the long term care issue. This is something, you know, everybody knows. Well, maybe they don't know that it's extremely expensive to care for elderly people. And you know, I'm in the assisted living business a little bit and I see how expensive that is. That's not even the type of care that is heavily medical or you know, memory care or things like that, which would be even more expensive than what I do. I hear people talk about long term care insurance in using it like a financial vehicle, the way they're sometimes using life insurance. Maybe you can speak to that as well.

Yeah, yeah.

I think long term care insurance is a really great way to help pay for long term care. There's really three ways you can pay for care. You could private pay, you could get long term care insurance or you could have the government help pay for care. This is really a personal thing for me and the reason is when I was younger my grandmother had a heart attack and she went to the hospital. My dad held her in his arms and thought that, that he lost his mom. It happened to be at a time we, we were there visiting which was Great. But it was kind of traumatic because I was, I was just a kid. And all of a sudden grandma wasn't there. She was at a hospital. And thankfully she recovered, but not, not very much. Long after that, her mental health started declining. And my grandfather started finding like her, her purse in the freezer or her keys in the heating air return vent that she had unscrewed and put them down, or her, her slippers behind the, behind the books of the bookcase. It was just things started adding up and piling up. And one day he called my dad and said he had to put my grandmother in a nursing home. And I know that was the worst day in his life because my clients tell me all the time that that's the worst day in their lives. And nobody talked to him about the different ways to pay for care. And so he private paid. He had the money. But for the next 10 years of his life, he would go down once a month and write a check or whatever it is he did to pay for her care, which was great that he had it. But when she passed away about three or four years later, he needed to go to a nursing home. And then there was no money left. And so my, my father, my aunt and my uncle, they all had to pitch in. They had to pull in out of their savings, out of their retirement, and they had to pay for his care again because nobody talked to them about the different ways to pay for care.

Okay, so. So let's first talk about, actually let's talk about the government method first. Everybody would love to just have the government pay for it. So I know that you set up irrevocable trusts for this purpose. You know, kind of a planning tool.

Yeah.

Which is an interesting idea. Tell us about how that works.

Yeah. So there's different government programs that help pay for care. You've got Medicare, which doesn't pay for long term care. It pays for up to 100 days of rehab. There's certain requirements of that that go into that. And a lot of people think Medicare is what pays for nursing home care. And unfortunately it doesn't, or at least not for very long. You have VA benefits. If a veteran served 90 days active duty one day during a time of war, they've had a discharge that's other than dishonorable. There could be some limited benefits for that. Often this will pay for assisted living or at home care or memory care. It doesn't really go far enough to pay for a full on nursing home because usually there's just so expensive and there's also a benefit for the surviving spouse. But the main benefit, the main really how the middle class pays for care by and large is Medicaid. A lot of people think that's for, for poor people and it's really not. Like I said, it's how the middle class pays for care. But there's certain requirements, there's certain assets that you can't have above a certain amount of assets. And so one of the things that we do if we're pre planning is in other words we are preparing, we're getting ready for someone needing some sort of long term care is we can help set up an irrevocable trust. And this irrevocable trust is done in a way that it's not accountable asset for Medicaid purposes. However, we do need to do it five years before we need care because of the Medicaid. Look back, they look and see if you've given any money in the last five years. And this is one of the things that they call a gift if you've put money in this type of trust.

So in other words, how needy do.

You need to be to qualify for this? Because that speaks to, I don't honestly don't know a better way to say it, but to make yourself sort of poor enough to qualify. Yeah, yeah, the right way to say it.

But yeah, it's, it's what a, what an elder law attorney does is they help you convert countable assets to non countable assets. It's kind of like your CPA helps you or your tax attorney helps you file taxes. Right. You've got the total amount that, that you've, you've earned in a year. But then you have credits, you have deductions, you have other things that will take that number and reduce it down. So at the end of the day, if you're a single person, you cannot have more than $2,000 of countable assets. And if you're married, it depends on if you're a state that is in a range state, meaning you can have a certain amount of assets between a minimum amount or a maximum amount. Or you might be in a state where it's just, you can have up to this amount. Each state is a little different. Medicaid is a federal program, but the states have given a, given a certain amount of leeway. So right now the maximum you can have, I want to have to double check, but I want to say it's about 130, 100 and maybe $150,000 at least in Texas. In what Net worth in cannibal assets. Yeah, not necessarily net worth. And why that's different is, for example, again, each state is different. But I can tell you about Texas, an IRA, if it's kicking off requirement to RMD's required minimum distributions, it's not accountable asset. If it's not kicking off RMDs, it is. But there's some other tools we can use to change it from accountable to non accountable that are fairly easy to do for us to do. A house is not accountable asset. But if we don't do any planning, there is a thing called Medicaid estate recovery and you have to be able to, depending on the state and what they go after, you might be able to protect it either through an irrevocable trust or in states like Texas, it's not necessary. You can do what's called a Lady Bird deed or transfer and death deed. So it's not total assets, it's total countable assets. And that's the thing too is it doesn't really matter how much you have. Right now I've had people with probably close to $1 million be able to get qualified because of how it was actually held and whether or not we were able to convert it to.

Well, I mean, the audience you're talking.

To now is pretty well healed, some of them.

Yeah.

So, you know.

Yeah.

Can someone, can someone do this if.

They have 10 or 20 million dollars in net worth?

You know, if you have 10 or 20 million dollars, it's possible. I don't know that I would really necessarily recommend it because I tell folks, you know, just because a nursing home accepts Medicaid doesn't mean it's a terrible nursing home. And that's true. But if you've got that much money, you can probably afford to get an even better, better care somewhere. So you probably. And those type of places are probably not ones that would accept Medicaid because it's a, it's a. Whether nursing home accepts Medicaid is a business decision and they get less money than they might be able to get private pay, but then they don't have to really chase somebody for to get payment. So it really just depends. But technically someone that has that much money if depends on how it's held, you know, we could probably still get them qualified.

Isn't it amazing? I just want to say this to you and the audience now. It is amazing that we have the privilege of using these vehicles and these entities to kind of structure our lives. You know, I say to our people, you know, that when you form an LLC or a corporation, that's like having a clone of you that is a sword and a shield at the same time, you know. Yeah, you can go out and put those things into the world and they take their own risk and you know, you're not liable for it if you do it. Right.

Yeah, it's, it's, I mean it's amazing techniques. It's, it's something that, you know, you have to know the law, you have to know the, the, the regulations and you kind of have to be involved in it for a while. For example, the thing about the IRAs in Texas, they're not accountable if it's kicking off RMDs. That was not something that's codified anywhere and they could change their mind. That's just a policy decision they announced one day at a legal, continuing legal education for lawyers that, that, that practice in this area in Texas just about, about maybe eight years ago now. Again, never codified. Says there's no regulation. So you just kind of have to know which is, which is good. And it's also not great because you've got all these secret rules you have to, you have to figure out.

Okay, so let's talk about the insurance side of it. Now you can pay for this insurance, you know, on a monthly basis. You can make one lump sense, one lump sum payment. Talk to us about the different options out there.

Yeah, as you mentioned, there's, there are a lot of different options. You could get a, an annual premium, you can get a monthly premium. There are certain long term care benefits that are either annuity based or whole life insurance based that you, maybe you put in a lump sum and that's it. Or maybe you put a lump sum and maybe pay an extra bit a year because you can get even more benefits. It really just depends. I know some of the older products were use it or lose it and a lot of people were not really thrilled with that, which I get. But on the flip side, it's like homeowners insurance, right? You're, you're not upset if you don't have a fire in the last year. You're excited about it. You didn't have a fire, so you don't have to, you know. Yeah, you paid those premiums and you ended up using them, but you're better off. And that's kind of the same way. But there are some newer products out. Traditional long term care insurance is not as available anymore because of, they really misunderstood the underwriting in it. And I think, I think the insurance company has kind of lost their shirt a little bit and so they, they've left that. But we have these newer products that are, that are whole life, that are hybrid based, whole life or annuity based and allows you to get long term care. And I think those are really good options as well.

Okay, so tell us about them. And you know, what are the cost ranges and so forth and what are the factors that input, that impact the cost?

I can't really tell you the exact ranges. It really just depends. Personally, I've never seen a monthly premium that cost or an annual premium that costs more than one month of nursing home cost. And so there's that. Although it is, can be expensive.

Okay, well, let's say that's $6,000 for example.

There you go.

That would be like a one month.

Cost in a lot of places. So yeah, you would say it wouldn't cost more than 6,000 annually.

I haven't seen it. But, but Maybe there are 500amonth and. Which is not chicken feed for sure.

Yeah, I know, but how long do you pay this?

So it just depends on the policy. You might pay it until you hit a certain amount that you've paid and be done. You might pay it till you go in to care and then you don't have to pay anymore. It just really depends.

At what age do people usually want to get this? Yeah, I know they used to want to. You used to sell it. Just, just for the record, you don't sell it. You used to sell it. You believe in it. So what age do people need to start?

Yeah, usually the age they start looking at it is, is probably too late again. It's, it's like the oak tree.

But what's the right age?

The right age is before you get ill. And here's what, here's what I mean by that.

Yeah, I mean is it 50, is it 60, is it 40?

I'll tell you for sure because we don't know. I don't have a crystal ball. So I got, I got my own personal long term. It's a traditional policy when I was 35 years old. Since then I've got some health issues and I could not get a policy. Today I'm 50 years old. So it really just depends on what your health is going to be like. And that's actually a little bit different too. The underwriting for long term care insurance was do you have a history, a family history or personal health history of something that would make you get sick but not die? Because if you get sick and died. That's great for the insurance company because they don't have to pay a lot of money out.

Right.

And so the, the underwriting has changed a little bit because we've got these, these whole life insurance policies and, and annuities and things. And we're not really looking at the same thing. We're looking at again, more of like mortality rates and that. But they're all also looking at your health. They're looking at what do you have anything? And they're looking at your age prior to Covid. You could get a long term care insurance policy. If you're certain policies, you could be like 83, 84 years old. Not so much anymore because of COVID I don't know what the, the age, the maximum age I've, I've seen is anymore. But you know, if you're in your 70s, you want to, and you're interested in it. You want to have a conversation with somebody sooner rather than later. Again, easy.

Just.

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