243: Exodus to Suburbia, NE Florida Market Update
21 Jun 2020 · 9 min
In this episode of the Heroic Investing Show, host Jason Hartman and a real‑estate operator discuss the rapid shift of renters and investors toward low‑density suburban properties in Northeast Florida, covering Jacksonville, Ocala, and Palm Coast. They highlight a surge in rental demand and occupancy, a sharp drop in available inventory (from a normalized 6.5 months to 3.2 months), and faster rent‑up times (now under 31 days). Hartman presents his "mass migration" theory—people are moving from high‑density urban areas to suburban and exurban locations—backed by apartment‑search data showing a 14% YoY increase. The conversation emphasizes their product focus on single‑family homes, duplexes, quads, and townhouses, featuring a new‑construction model with keyless entry, video tours, and a 210‑day warranty. Operational details such as a monthly replenishment schedule (the 20th) with building partners are explained. The episode concludes with a call to action for investors to explore these high‑demand properties via jasonhartman.com and 1‑800‑HARTMAN, positioning the current market as a "tsunami" of opportunity for savvy investors.
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Hey, I wanted to give you just a very quickie update on a couple of our markets. Northeast Florida, which encompasses two markets and some kind of consider Ocala to be that area. I don't know if I do, but. So we're going to talk about three different things. What is going on? Tell us more.
Obviously, we're always looking for signs in different times and one of the main things that we've seen incredibly is the occupancy rate. We have so far this month rented 52 units, which is 10 above normal for our property management group. We're actually seeing an increase in rental demand. And I think it's probably, Jason, the fact that we're more in a sprawl area. As you know, Jacksonville is the largest square mileage city in the nation. Ocala has more. Although it has its own economic infrastructure, it has more of a rural feel. And that's what people are drawn to right now. Coupled with our new construction model where they're able to see the homes through our keyless entry system and being the first ones to move into it, it's really increased our rental demands, which has been exciting to see.
Yeah. Let me tell you something. Every single expert I interview, I always. I'm testing my own theory that by the way, I'm going to pat myself on the back. I was saying two months before anybody else was, before John Burns, before the mainstream media, before the CEO of Redfin. Okay, I'm a little envious that I didn't get all that attention, even though I was saying this before everybody else. And that is predicting the mass migration out of high density areas to lower density areas like the suburbs and even the exurbs and apartment rental traffic. Now this is apartments. I get it. It's not exactly our product, but it's still telling. They had level of monthly traffic, meaning searches on their website on apartments.com in April 2019, 52 million and 2020, 59 million. Okay, so America is on the move like we were talking about. To give it a surfing metaphor, this is a swell that's way out in the ocean now and in the Next couple of months it's going to turn into a wave and then at some point, I don't know exactly when it will crest and then it will break and it'll be white water everywhere. Meaning all those people have moved or are moving at that time to these lower density areas. They had over 7 million more visits and a growth rate of 14% year over year on apartment searches. Now guessing this is not in their survey, that those searches are high density apartment or high density condo. People searching for lower density apartments. Meaning that if they want to move to an area, maybe they grab themselves an apartment first before they buy a home in that area or before they move into more permanent rental, they get an apartment on a short term lease and then, you know, they, they get into the home they really want. But every expert agrees with me, whether it be Jim Rogers, the, you know, famous hedge fund manager that used to be partners with George Soros, interviewed him two days ago. Today I interviewed Harry Dent. He's been on the show 11 times. He agrees everybody agrees with this trend. So I think it's just going to be huge. And our listeners are taking advantage of this with the type of product that you have available because you're the boots on the ground person. Yeah.
And we're gonna be busy, Jason. Cause let me tell you something right now, we'll start with Jacksonville. And they're all the same for basically Palm coast and Ocala. A normalized market. A normalized market here has usually about six and a half months of inventory available for sale. Right now we're at 3.2 months of inventory.
So you literally have. In other words, we're at half. The absorption rate has increased, meaning people are gobbling up the proper quicker or there's just less inventory on the market. And I've kind of heard both of those things depending on the market. But you have literally half the inventory level you usually have, right?
Exactly half. Which is incredible. Which shows. And as soon as one of our new construction models is done, we were at about 31 days and now that's even shortened through the pandemic for days to get it rented.
You know, that's just amazing that it's. That inventory is that low and things are that strong in an era when for two months people really haven't been out of the house. You know, they're not, they're not even out looking. Imagine how this shift accelerates dramatically when people actually go out. They go to open houses, they start looking at houses and wow, it's, it's pretty amazing. Okay, any specifics on Jacksonville, Ocala, Palm Coast?
Our main niche right now we're focusing on is again, as you know, we've always done is the low density. We have always stuck to residential. So the single family, the duplex and the quad, that's kind of our, you know, three punches and they, they again have space. They don't have giant gathering areas with too many people, which people don't want. So we're staying with that model and we're seeing the demand grow. So we, overall we are, we're going to keep running the play we've been running before the pandemic, Jason, but now we're seeing us get into even more favor with that simple thing because we are low density. Like you said, in areas with more sprawl where you're not on top of each other.
Yeah, people can socially distance. They don't have to get into an elevator, they don't have to take mass transit. And by the way, I interviewed this morning and this show will be published soon, an expert on homelessness who lives in New York City and he charts homelessness all over the nation, but is especially focused on New York City. He heads up the Central Park. Oh, forgive me, I can't remember the exact name, but like the Central park association or something like that, you know, Central Park, New York. And he says that the mass transit infection rate is just a serious problem. So you don't want to have to get in any type of mass transit nowadays. What type of product do you have in each of those markets? Just tell us about that real quick.
Yeah, we have again, a mixture of single family homes, duplex and quads. And we are doing, as you know, a project in Atlanta of townhouses that's going very well near the famous Serenbee. So our product right now, duplexes in Palm coast and Ocala. We do have a few quads available and then a few scattered single family homes between each of Jacksonville, Palm coast and Ocala. And as you know, Jason, we've been, we've been very busy. So we replenish about the 20th of every month, but that's what we have available at this time.
What do you mean you replenish the 20th of every month? Is that when the truck comes in and delivers your new inventory of houses? I'm kidding. Is that when Santa Claus shows up?
Santa Claus comes the 20th of about every month where with our building partner, we sit down, you know, based on the demands of what we've done. Looking forward to what clients are asking for. I am Again, putting us into a position of having the properties that are highest in demand. And like we said, those are the highest in demand. I'm very glad, Jason. We stuck to low density. I think people are very happy. And again, it shows the strength of a simple single family home. And new construction, as you know, is showing even more worth because people aren't traveling now. So a lot of people, as you know, have been purchasing through us, but they feel really good that they're getting videos of the totally new home, that they're getting the 210 warranty. It's giving them a lot more feeling of the safety of the mortgage.
Sure, sure. You know, anybody in the business of supplying anything for the home is going to do pretty well in these trying times, you know, for the people who have the wherewithal, who have money. Now, granted, some don't. You know, it's a, it's a divide, there's no question about it. But for the people that have money to spend, they're going to be buying furniture, they're going to be improving their home. The home is the center of the universe and they're just going to want to make their home nice. They're going to be buying home office furniture, adjustable height desk, home gym equipment, and they need space for that. And these suburban type homes that you offer through our network are perfect. I mean, they're just totally perfect. If they lived in a more high density environment, whether they owned a condo or lived in an apartment, they had a common area, an apartment complex or an association gym, in a pool, those things are closed down. I mean, I've seen them. The pools are closed down, the gyms are closed down. They can't use any of that stuff. So they want to have a garage or a spare bedroom for that. So you're offering the perfect thing. So folks, if you want to check out any of these properties, go to jasonhartman.com properties. Reach out to our investment counselors at 1-800-hartman and we'll be happy to help you. Smart investors. They see this wave coming and they're taking advantage of it. They are stocking up on these good quality suburban rental properties before this massive tsunami of demand hits. And they're getting in the in the right position. So thanks very much for sharing this with us. Thank you.
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