273: Unveiling the Macro Trends Shaping the Housing Market

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We've got a great show for you today. And we've got an interview I did recently with someone else that was very, very popular. In fact, it is one of the most popular videos on my YouTube channel and I think you'll, you'll like this one. So this is a second interview, the same person interviewing me. We had almost a million views on that last one. So that is coming up in just a moment. But first, a few things for you. We have talked a lot about how so many people have these cheap mortgages and the lock in effect of and the fact that they are extremely unlikely to experience any significant financial distress that would motivate them to sell their house because the house they have now is way too good a deal to sell. So you've got that lock in effect of tens and tens of millions. Almost the entire housing stock is experiencing the lock in effect. So where will the inventory come from? Well, I'll tell you one group, it's definitely not going to come from. And if you're watching on video, you see this on the screen and that is all of the people that do not have any mortgage at all. That's approximately 40% of all U.S. homeowners. And think about it, some of this is because those people got their mortgage in the 90s, right? It's been 30 years already, folks. I mean, it's been 30 years. You know, I have friends that were born in 1991-1992-1993-1995. And that means that was the time when people took out a mortgage because there were some rate drops during that time. And now those people are just paying off their mortgage. Maybe They've got a 15 year mortgage at the time and they paid off that mortgage a long time ago. So suffice it to say, we've got all of these people that own their homes free and clear and it's very easy for them to just stay put, be comfortable. And this is now the, well, this article that I'm showing you share of mortgage free homeowners hits an all time high. Just last year, people age 65 and older own the largest share of homes in the United States, according to a Bloomberg analysis of census data. And guess what? About 40% of those people are free and clear with no mortgage at all. The rest of them have very, very cheap mortgages. So this is pushing us into number one, it is massively increasing the wealth gap, but it's also pushing us into this sort of two class society where you've got all of these homeowners that are in very, very good shape, that are now running so much faster in the socioeconomic race than the people who were left out. Now some of the reasons they were left out is just because of plain economics and this concentration of wealth, which again is a terrible thing for society. It, it does not bode well for the future because I believe at least that an important thing for stability is a very large middle class. But really this is the largest share of the people in the country, right? We've got something like, you know, 90 million or something like that owner occupied housing units, right? About 90 million of those. Then we've got, you know, another 20, 30 million. I don't know, you know, that number keeps going up of rental occupied households. But those are owners that own them, right? Mom and pop owners. Then we've got the institutional investors that add more to the mix that are not becoming nearly as big a deal as people think because they gotta buy an awful lot of homes to own America, as people are scared of that and the fearmongers are out there. But hey, look, they're a bigger share than they've ever been. So we've got all of these factors in play. And you know, I kind of said, well, this is increasing the wealth gap. But again, this is a giant section of the economy in a country with just over 330 million people. And obviously that includes children, right? So when you take out the kids, I don't have that exact number off the top of my head. And you look at only the adults, especially the adults 25 to 64 years old, right? That segment, that demographic cohort, is largely homeowners. So again, I don't know if you can say that this is such a bad thing because the vast majority of people are quite comfortable and they are winning the economic race. Now what's interesting about it is that you look at the high end homes and you look at the affluent areas and the rich are also getting richer. So this article says housing inventory plummets in the most affluent US zip codes. So here, these are cyclical markets, right? And they're doing surprisingly well. There are a few exceptions, of course, San Francisco. And by the way, I got something really interesting to tell you about San Francisco, the beautiful, well, formerly beautiful city by the bay, in just a moment. So I'll get to that in just a moment. Really scary article that I'm about to show you. Okay, so here it says, as the US market across the nation is cooling with record low inventory. So again, that's. When they say cooling, what do they mean? They don't mean prices, they mean transaction volume, sales volume, cooling. But these luxury markets are experiencing a massive inventory shortage. Just like the entry level market where there's just so little inventory that it is really, really propping up prices. So take a look at these expensive zip codes in Miami, Florida, Watermill, New York, Beverly Hills, California, East Hampton, New York, and my former hometown, Newport Beach, California. Right. Look at the days on the market, year over year, difference in. And look at the inventory difference. I mean, it is staggering to see this, how these markets are experiencing very quick sales and very low inventory levels with high buyer demand. Now a long time ago I told you when these rates go up, people will be shocked at first and sales volume will decline at first and sales volume continues to be low. But is that a result of buyer demand or low inventory? Well, mostly it's a result of low inventory. Right. So we have these, these factors going on. But the other thing I said at the time is I said that it will take a while, but buyers will simply learn to accept less. They will capitulate. They will finally realize, hey, as Yogi Berra once said, the future ain't what it used to be. Right. That funny saying. And they just can't get what they could have gotten before. So they will curtail their expectations. Right. They will augment their expectations downward and they will simply take off the rose colored glasses and realize that we have what we have, we can get what we can get, we can afford what we can afford and life has to go on. So we've got to do something. So we're just going to buy a house? Yeah. It's not as good as it would have been a couple of years ago. And it's certainly not as good as it would have been five years ago or 10 years ago or whatever. Right. But they're just going to accept reality. It takes a while for people to come around, but we are seeing clear evidence of that happening. People are accepting reality and they are coming around and they are buying properties and that is keeping up. The demand is keeping up with the slightly increased supply. Again, supply still very low. Inventory shortage still very significant. But we have had, as is typical this time of year, a little more supply on the market. Okay, back to San Francisco then. We'll get to today's episode, Crime in San Francisco. We all know this has been a terrible problem. We know that the formerly beautiful city by the bay, right? You know, I think of the band Journey, I think of that song My City by the Bay, the Journey song. And we had a Journey tribute band play at one of our live events or one of our conferences. So we always get banned and make it real fun. But this time we're going on a cruise, folks. That's our next event coming up in April. So be sure to go to Empowered Investor Live and join us for our upcoming cruise. We look forward to seeing you there. That's going to be five days together. We're going to have a blast, but we're going to learn a lot. We got two sea days where we're going to use those for education and fun as well. It's going to be great. But the city by the bay now has pirates in the bay. Yes, the criminals have taken to the water. There is literally piracy going on in San Francisco Bay. I don't mean piracy like copyright infringement. I mean theft, people boarding other boats and other yachts and stealing from those yachts. Look at this article. Oakland, California. The former harbor master of Oakland says that he hasn't seen this in like forever, right? They haven't seen this kind of crime spree ever. People are anchoring in the harbor and they are taking small boats, inflatables and they are using those stolen boats to commit crimes and steal from other boats. Folks, it's probably as scary as this is only a matter of time before we see news articles about armed robbery in the San Francisco Bay. I mean this is just really just awful. I mean it's just awful. And this is the other thing that you've got to realize is that in all of these left leaning jurisdictions where you see these, we've told you for 20 years I've been telling you, right, invest in landlord friendly markets, right, that have right leaning politics because you're going to be much better off in those markets that are friendly to your cause as the investor, right? If you have a tenant that decides they just don't want to pay you, you can get them out. You can get your property back where private property rights are respected. But in these left leaning markets you have legitimate political risk. And that is astonishing for me to say that in any jurisdiction within the United States, I mean, probably people haven't thought that there would be legitimate political risk in any United States metro area for decades. Maybe over a hundred years. No one has thought that in a country with such good rule of law as the U.S. but now, and you saw that with the BLM riots in the summer of George Floyd, you saw how these mostly peaceful protests where the, you know, behind the news reporter saying that the city is up in flames, you know, Minneapolis, whatever, right? All of them, you know the story, okay. You have legitimate political risk in some markets. So that means more than ever that you need a partner that can help you make good decisions and give you good advice on your investment markets. So go to jasonhartman.com for help on that. Join us for our Empowered Investor cruise coming up next year. Sign up for that today@empoweredinvestorlive.com and just a reminder for those Empowered Investor Pro members, our monthly Zoom meeting is tomorrow night. We've got a great talk about insurance for landlords that can insure against tenant damage. This is a really interesting and very, very inexpensive new insurance policy option. So you're really not going to want to miss this if you're not a member. Go to empoweredinvestor.com and sign up for that so we can see you on our monthly Zoom meetings. And without further ado, let's get to today's interview. We got a really good discussion and here it is.

All right.

Boom. People, welcome back to the show. Today we got with us an incredible guest, Mr. Jason Hartman. Jason, welcome to the show.

Hey Bridger, it's good to be talking with you again. You know, the last time we recorded that video got almost 900,000 views.

So the people liked it. So here we are, we're back. We're going to dive into macroeconomics, where the market is going, what we're seeing in the gold market, silver markets with the brics nations macro currency wars that are currently going on. And by the way, I'll say this, Jason's an incredible human. He actually Jason's spoken at our one of our previous black card summits, actually came out to Utah, spoke it and just wowed the entire audience. People have still talked to me about like man, remember when Jason came out and spoke there, then we had you at Fun Launch Live as well. Former speaker of Fun Launch Live, which did you did incredible on stage as well. So Jason is an incredible PODCASTER ON and last thing I'll say before we dive in. So my. A lot of you guys know my dad, big time fund manager, now retired for years and years and years. He's been like Bridger before I ever met Jason. You got to go listen to Jason Hartman. This guy is one of the sharpest people. And this is coming from my dad, who's a multi billion dollar fund manager.

Yeah.

Saying Jason Hartman is one of the sharpest people I listen to. He's like, I religiously listened to this guy. So it's an honor for me to have you on the show today, Jason. People want to know what's going on the market. We have very interesting indicators. Personally, I'm very bearish. Just because it's hard to raise rates five and a half percent and nothing breaks. Right. You would think, like everything should be breaking now. But I want to get your take on current state of the market where we're at.

Yeah, Bridger. So it's an excellent point. Look, we have the lowest housing affordability in 37 years. The cost of money has pretty much tripled from the lows. However, we have to keep that in the context of overall history because the question is always compared to what? If you compare things like so many people are doing to the COVID era a couple of years ago, you're gonna have a lot of blind spots because that was the outlier, that was not normal. It was a total anomaly. Covid was a very weird era. So let's not compare it to that, but let's go back further and look at a bigger piece of history. You know, I'm sure everybody listening has been to several museums in their life. And you know, when you go to a museum and you walk up to a beautiful painting, you can look at it from 4 inches away and you will see the brush strokes, you will see all the detail. And if you back up about a foot and maybe you're a foot and a half away, you're going to see some more. And if you back up 4ft or 6ft, you're going to see the big picture. Right. And so we need to look at the big picture rather than just the brush strokes. And that's what I hope to help people do today with our interview.

Yeah, back us up a little bit. So what, what time periods do you. Are you looking at? Kind of give us a range. I think that's a great point. People look so close. So what do you typically look at? Where do you start when you're looking at this?

It's a great question. And I developed an index that I've presented at two of your live events called the Hartman Comparison Index, or the HCI for short, which I love this, by the way.

It was like wowed out audience. I love this whole thing. Yeah, get into it.

Yeah. It answers what I say is life's most important question. Which is compared to what? You know, that's the most important question in life because when we compare things, we understand them much better. Right. And we do this, we're comparison beings. We go out into the marketplace, whether it be the marketplace for a house or a new car or a TV or a mate, okay? We go into the marketplace and we compare things and the only way we really know the value of anything is by comparing it to something else. And that's what the index does. So in terms of all.

I'm going to interrupt you for a second. My dad says this at length. He goes, a lot of people don't like the US dollar, but compared to what exactly? Compared to bitcoins, it's doing okay. Compared to un, it's doing all right. You don't like where you live? Well, compared to what? You don't like your religion that you're a part of? Well, compared to what? And so I love this whole concept. My dad, he brings us up at the dinner table multiple times and we always quote Jason Hartman at the dinner tables, just so you know, you have a spot at the table.

I love it.

But. Sorry, keep going on this. So, so get, get us a little bit deeper into compared to what here?

Sure, sure. So, so you asked the time periods, Right? So the, the Hartman Comparison Index goes back to 1970 and it's hard to get some of the data points. There's about 40, I think 42 data points in the index now, but it goes back to 1970. And we're not going to talk about the index today so much because just, just for time purposes, but you know, more on that on my show or whatever. But you know, most of the time today we're just going to go back several years, depending on what we're looking at, and look at some good comparisons that I think will be very helpful. So when we started, I mentioned that the housing affordability was the lowest it's been in 37 years. Bridger and one of the things investors need to keep in mind is while everybody is so myopically focused on housing prices, we really need to remember that income property is a multi dimensional asset class. And it's not just about the price of the house. It's about the yield on the house. So as investors, we must adjust our strategy. Just like you teach all of your students in managing their funds, you need to adjust your strategy. Sometimes you're in a capital gains market, sometimes you're in a yield market where you're just looking at return on, on, on investment, return on income. Right? And so that's the thing we need to understand. And when prices soften or when housing affordability declines, then people are forced to stay in the renter pool. And so long as you have either an increasing population, which by the way, is a misnomer, because the important part of population growth is not how many people are having babies today, it's how many people had babies 25 and 30 years ago. That's household formation. And that's the most important part of understanding the housing market is lagging it back by about a generation because that's the household formation time.

And is the US a little bit of an outlier there with people, immigrants coming to America as well, net inflows?

Yeah, yeah, definitely. Adjusting for immigration is also important. But another thing, and this is another thing that demographers and economists are missing constantly. Of course, you are a millennial, and I am a Gen Xer. And as millennials, a lot of millennials like to complain about the world, the boomers, their boomer parents left them with. Right. In fact, there's a meme for it. You've all heard it, hey, boomer, Right. And it's kind of blaming the boomers for the economy, the debt they left with them. And the millennials have a right to complain about some of this stuff. But if you really understand it and you peel back the layers of the onion, the millen doing badly at all, they're just on the slow life plan. So every statistic you look at for a millennial versus their baby boomer parents has to be lagged by about six years. Because if your baby boomer parents owned a nice house when they were 30 years old, you're going to be 36 by the time you get to own that same nice house. Okay? So just understand, millennials are doing everything more slowly. They're forming households more slowly. They're getting married more slowly. They're just taking their time with life. And that is the reason largely for a lot of these complaints that people aren't adjusting for six years difference.

So, and when you adjust for six years, that's pretty much on most categories, about a six year lag gets them equal to baby boomers.

It does it does. The millennials are doing much better than they think they are. And most people think they are. Now, one complaint, and this is a right complaint that they would have, is they'll say, yeah, but my baby boomer parents didn't have all this student loan debt. They're right. College has become a total scam, unfortunately. You know, in the 1970s, when the government started ensuring student loans, the ability to get those loans massively increased. There was a huge tsunami of liquidity coming at the college market. And what did colleges do naturally? They just raised their prices. And so college tuition is a complete ripoff. Okay? I mean, no one can deny that, but the baby boomer parents, they didn't have the student loan debt, but guess what they did have. They had children. And children are very expensive. Their millennial kids are having fewer kids and they're having a much later than their parents did. So we've got to just equalize for all this stuff to understand what's really going on.

Well, I like that mindset too. Of, I mean, I just. Me and you both can talk about this at length, but the victimization mindset never serves anybody. Even if it's true, even if you are a victim, it just that mindset never serve you across the board. And I like equaling it out. Hey, it's actually just a six year lag as a generational difference. So back to the original question though. Let's talk markets right now. What are you seeing? And you've talked about the time link, so give us kind of give us this picture of what you're seeing in the markets right now.

Sure, sure. So I, for those listening only on audio, I'm sharing my screen right now and I'm going to just show some things. We'll try and explain them for you. If you're not able to see this and you're not watching the video. So look, the first thing to understand is that you, that most people expected mortgage delinquencies to go way up. And when you literally triple the cost of mortgage money. Right. I mean, we've seen rates go from a low of about what, 2.6% to now triple that. Okay. And we just have not seen the amount of foreclosures that people have predicted. In fact, the default rate is the lowest it's been since 1990, 1979. People are finding their homes to be extremely affordable.

How happening though, Jay? Like how, like how? Tell me how.

Hold on, I'm going to show you. Okay. Okay, so let's look at some more stuff. So this is a chart from the FRED website. St. Louis Federal Reserve. Everybody uses FRED, of course.

Okay.

This is mortgage debt service payments as a percentage of disposable personal income. And as you can see, from the early 80s to present day, the mortgage debt service. In other words, your mortgage obligation on a house is extremely low. In fact, the only time it was lower than this was during the COVID era that we previously mentioned. At all other times, since the early 1980s, mortgage expense as a percentage of disposable personal income has been dramatically higher. That obligation today is much lower than it's been. And what we have to understand is there is this huge lock in effect. And I talked about this in 2020 when nobody was talking about this. I was talking about this how people would not be willing to give up these extraordinarily cheap mortgages. Because now, if you think about where we are now, people have 28 years left on the lowest interest rates in. Are you ready for this? Literally. I kid you not. I'm about to say this. It's going to sound like a crazy statement. They have the lowest rates in 5,000 years. Yes, there are interest rate charts. Bridger, going back 5,000 years. Don't believe me? Read a great book by the late David Graeber. It's an excellent book. It's called the first 5,000 years. I really recommend that book. Unfortunately, he passed away. I. I did not get him on my show before he left us. But the book is really quite interesting. So. So read that book. But just understand that we have.

These people have locked in really low rates, and they're. They're. I'm not like, I have a really low rate. I have a 2.6 on my house. And I'm like, honey, we're never leaving this house. Or if we do, we're going to keep this house forever and just go buy another house.

And make it a rental.

Yeah, and make it a rental. Because there's no way I'm getting that mortgage is more valuable to me than. Than any, like, anything else you could offer me on that property.

We're going to look at some inventory statistics in a moment because most people thought and predicted that inventory would rise as rates went up. But what they don't understand, it's the exact opposite is true. Think of it like a bond. I mean, you and many of your listeners understand the bond market, okay? And the bond market is like a contraindication. When interest rates go up, bond prices go down. And when bond prices go up, interest rates go down, okay? So Those are, are non correlating because the bond becomes less valuable in a higher rate environment and more valuable in a lower rate environment. The same is true with existing mortgages. All of the millions of people. Now let's talk about how many. Okay, there's about 140 million housing units in the United States. 25% of those people with mortgages have a mortgage at or below 3%. 65% of the people with mortgages, and I'll tell you why I'm pointing that out in just a moment, have a mortgage rate at or below 4%. They have 28 years left on those ultra cheap mortgages. But guess what? 42% of the country has no mortgage at all. Now, Bridger, there is one ingredient, one critical ingredient that you absolutely, positively must have if you want to have a housing crash. This is the ingredient you cannot do without. There can be no housing crash without this ingredient. And that is millions of distressed sellers. These sellers are the complete opposite of distressed. They are incredibly comfortable. And they know, even if they don't understand finance, they just intuitively know in the most simplistic way that their mortgage has become an asset. It has become more valuable the higher the interest rates go. If the Fed raises rates and this continues and say mortgage rates go to 11%. God forbid. Okay, but say they do, all of these existing mortgages will just be more valuable. Yeah. It will not be less valuable.

So the 42% of people. Is that people that own their home outright or, and, or rent. Is it?

No, that's not. Renters don't have a mortgage. Free and clear. Free and clear. Owners with no mortgage at all.

Okay, so 40%, 42% of homeowners own their house free and clear.

Yes. So think about it. It's very hard to go into foreclosure when you have no mortgage. Yeah, it's very hard to go into foreclosure when you have an uber cheap mortgage. Okay, See, people need to understand that the inventory. The vast majority of the country either purchased or refinanced a home during the COVID era, and they got those super low rates. And what people don't understand is that they think, okay, housing is so unaffordable right now. They're right. It's the lowest affordability in 37 years. But that's not the issue. The issue is the people that got their mortgages two years ago, their mortgage is incredibly affordable. They're not in distress. They're in the complete opposite of distress. In fact, they know if they had to move the Rent they would have to pay or a new mortgage they would have to pay would be a lot higher than the payment they have now. They're not leaving. They're going to keep that mortgage because they know it's super valuable. Here's an example, Bridger. Okay, look at what we have here. We have 20, 21, and the median mortgage payment was $1,000. Now, as of. Sorry, last year, this chart only goes up to last year. As of last year, the median mortgage payment was more than double that, just over $2,000. All right, but think of it. It's like rolling back the clock. Basically, all of these people that got mortgages during the COVID era, it's like they got to go back in time 10, 11 years and get the same kind of mortgage people got 10 or 11 years earlier, even though the houses back then were much cheaper. That's the thing. People have to understand. Okay, so you want to look at some inventory?

Yeah, I've got a bunch of questions, but I'm going to let you keep going and then. All right, we'll dive in.

This is so. Okay.

And by the way, I'm just going to give Jason a shout out. He came on stage at our event, at least at the black card event you talked about. He's like, inflation's coming. Quantity easing is so much. Inflation destroys debt. And I don't remember, I think we had disclaimers, not financial advice. But I remember you on stage saying it might not be a bad time to get a lot of debt right now. And ta da, we're a couple years out. It's, I don't know, it's been two years, two and a half years later, and it's like, wow, the people that follow that council have done pretty well so far, which is pretty cool.

Yeah. Well, think about it. So I teach a strategy that you know about and your dad knows about all too well. It's called inflation induced debt destruction. And for 18 years I've been teaching this strategy. I actually trademarked that term, inflation induced debt destruction. And what it means is that you borrow money based on today's value, but you get to pay it back based on tomorrow's value, which is lower in an inflationary environment. So just last year alone, Bridger, if people had $1 million in mortgage debt, maybe they own four little rental properties or a big house themselves. You know, they had a million dollars in mortgage debt just by the official numbers, not by the real inflation numbers, which are higher. But using the CPI, or I call it the CP lie okay, using the CP lie, you had 9% inflation, for example. Right. It varies every month. I know that. Okay, but if you have a million dollars in mortgage debt, inflation basically paid off $90,000.

Yeah.

It's crazy. In a year.

Yeah.

I mean, think about that. That's like having a whole extra job that pays really well. 90 grand is not a bad job.

Yeah.

Okay, so that's free money. It's incredible. It really is.

I love it. So what are we looking at here?

Okay, so inventory in the United States. Housing inventory has increased. Now, all of the Clickbait headlines on YouTube, all of the clickbait in the media, all the Chicken little sky is falling. Doom and gloomers have used this to say the market is going to hell in a hand basket. But the question is, compared to what? Okay, so the lowest inventory got during the COVID era was about 240,000 homes for sale.

Now that yellow line right there, Is that right? 20. 20.

Yeah. Yep, yep. So here and now we have almost 500,000 homes available. And people will make headlines and videos and say, oh, my God, inventory is doubled. The market is going to hell. But that's just a lie. It's completely wrong. Because the question is not his inventory doubled from historic lows, where we had this savagely unhealthy housing market where no one could get a house, where every house had massive multiple offers. That was an anomaly. That was an outlier. What we have now is we have inventory that is short. We have a shortage of about 700,000 homes. That's what we need to be in a normal market. That's not even a buyer's market or what most would call a bad market. That's just a normal market. We have to more than double the inventory again to get to normal.

What was it like? You have the data on 2007? 8, 9?

No, I don't have it back that far. But remember, if I. I mean, I do on other charts. I just don't have it handy. I've certainly looked at it many times. But remember something. You always have to adjust the amount of inventory for the population.

Okay?

Okay. And really, to do it correctly, it's not for population, it's for household population. That's the really correct way to do it. Okay. Remember we talked about that lag of 25 to 30 years earlier? Right? Yeah, yeah. So that's the way you have to adjust correctly. It's. You have to look at inventory on a per household basis with.

What's. What's your thoughts on this? You know, inventory shortage based on millennials or even Gen Z not purchasing homes as much or later in life. This would be maybe some people say, well, yeah, if this was all boomers, yeah, they'd be buying at 30 years old. But a lot of millennials and Gen Z's are saying, I'm okay to rent, I'm okay to not own a home. What's your thoughts on that trend that's been happening the last decade?

I think that that has been true, but it is not so true anymore. Millennials really are finally growing up and moving into the housing market in a big, big way. So, you know, again, there's that six year lag, right, where millennials are six years behind schedule vis a vis b baby boomers. I mean, listen, millennials are not kids anymore. The oldest millennial is, what, 43 years old now. Okay. These are not kids. Okay. You know, now we have to talk about Gen Z. Okay. We have to talk about the zoomers, not the millennials anymore. Right?

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