AIPIS 24 – Opportunities In Today’s Real Estate Market & Coaching For Success with Dirk Zeller

Welcome to the AIPIS show for accredited income property investment specialists and those who aspire to be. If you're a real estate, mortgage or financial professional, this is the place for you. We'll explore innovative investment analysis, sales, marketing and income generating strategies for the most historically proven wealth creator income property. Learn from the experts as they show you how to build a better business and a better life.

Welcome to the AIPIS show for accredited income property investment specialists and those who wish to be. This is your host, Jason Hartman and we of course talk about education for real estate, mortgage and financial professionals, how to be your client's trusted advisor rather than just another salesperson, and how to create profit through new and innovative income streams to outpace your competition. Today we'll be talking with Dirk Zeller, who is the head of a company called Real Estate Champions. And I've known Dirk for a long time and he's got some innovative ideas in terms of increasing your effectiveness as a salesperson, increasing your income and doing a better job for your clients and attracting more clients from that prospective client database you have. So we will go to that interview here in just less than 60 seconds on the AIPIS show.

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My pleasure to welcome Dirk Zeller to the show. He is the head of Real Estate Champions, a training organization based in Bend, Oregon. And Dirk, it's great to have you on the show.

Thanks, Jason. Great to first of all, let's talk.

A little bit about the market if we could, and that'll lead right into how real estate practitioners can be more effective. Why are buyers so hesitant in today's marketplace? Now that's going to seem like a rather elementary question, but I bet you have some insights as to what they're thinking out there.

Well, I think, Jason, the confusion certainly is one of the reasons. I mean, gosh, we've seen so many different reports left and right coming out about the nature of the marketplace. I mean, gosh, you can just look at the media and what they're reporting. I mean, Time magazine last month, front page article on negative about the real estate marketplace and you shouldn't be buying homes, you should be renting homes.

I read that article and I found that article pretty interesting. I was in the airport in Puerto Rico and I picked it up, I saw that cover and I couldn't miss it. But yeah, that's pretty negative. Their big talk was mobility is good for job creation. Which, you know, that's sort of an interesting angle on it. But yeah, a lot of negative press out there. What else were you going to mention about that?

Well, in rebut of that, you know, we had mid month a great article by Wall Street Journal online, the top 10 reasons why buying a home right now in today's marketplace is an appropriate move. Just last Friday article in USA Today on don't buy a home rent instead of buy. So you've got major news organizations going back and forth to the consumer at large confusing the issue. And you've got the real estate community in the middle, which basically doesn't have a argument in a cogent way, strategically laid out of why now is the reason to buy other than the fact that the interest rates are good? I mean, that's basically if you talk to most agents, they really don't have a well thought out reasons for the consumer why to buy now. And you know, one of the things that I'm talking with agents about now is really focusing on what I would call the affordability index. You know, you look at the affordability index, the median home payment against the median income against the median home price. In 2001, it took 20.3% of somebody's income on a monthly basis to purchase a home. In 2006, it was 25.1. Well, today, in 2010, right now when you and I are talking, it's 14.9%.

It's pretty, pretty attractive, isn't it?

It's amazingly attractive. But yes, most agents don't know that statistic and can't convey what an incredible value it is today for the consumer and why they should buy beyond the interest rates are good or whatever it may be. They can't. I mean, I was in Kansas City last week, 300 agents in the room. And I shared to them, I said, okay, give me a list, rattle it out. Tell me why should somebody buy a home? And literally 300 agents, we were whiteboarding it, they couldn't get past six reasons. 300 of them in one group. I'm looking at them going, guys, you can't get past six. Give me a break.

It is amazing to me when you look at the real estate industry, which I think beyond the shadow of a doubt has the best from just a purely financial or investment perspective. And you compare it to Wall street, that has a, at best mediocre product if you ask me. But they're so good at articulating it. They've got such a machine of people out there talking up stocks and bonds all the time. And what we offer in the real estate industry is far better, isn't it?

From a leverage standpoint, from an accumulation standpoint, from tax benefits. Absolutely, you're absolutely right. There is no question that the product, the service, the value propos is so much better in real estate than it is in stocks or bonds. But the problem is the salespeople aren't as good.

Yeah, very good point. And the great thing is we've got the better product. So all we need is the right training so that we can be as effective. Well, more so than the Wall street folks which are throwing money like crazy at this. So give us like a good argument. I mean the affordability index is great and I think that's really going to shine in a few years because think about it, someone buying a property now can get a 30 year fixed rate mortgage. I mean, Dirk, three decades long at these incredibly low rates, the lowest rates in five decades. And in three to five years, I mean, I think these low rate long term fixed rate loans are going to be just looked at as solid gold. People don't realize what kind of asset they're acquiring now. And that's that fantastic long fixed rate mortgage, isn't it?

Oh yeah. It's an incredible asset overall in terms of, you know, the borrowing value of today is unbelievably amazing. But you know, you look at the cyclical nature of real estate, I mean, in the sense that you can get a consumer to agree that real estate is cyclical. And anybody would agree with that. Well, because of the nature of real estate being cyclical, that obviously real estate goes up and real estate goes down. And the reality of it is because of the value proposition, real estate is down. Right. Now, obviously now is the time to buy.

Right, right. Another part of that, Dirk, is that it's the old saying, all real estate is local. You look at different markets around the country. We're in a country with basically 400 markets, 400 major local markets. And in a country this large and diverse, you can't even talk about real estate on a national level. I mean, the market in Miami or Los Angeles is far different than the market in Indianapolis or Phoenix, right?

Absolutely. And so each individual specific marketplace has its own set of unique inventory absorption rates and strategy and what somebody needs to employ to take advantage of what's going on in the marketplace. But certainly nationwide, there are economic factors that point to purchasing in those individual marketplaces. There's underlying values of home ownership and satisfaction of home ownership. There's certainly the global tax benefits of home ownership overall that we all need to be taking advantage of currently in today's marketplace. And real estate agents need to be conveying certainly in most marketplaces overall that there's an opportunity in terms of inventory in most of the marketplaces that sellers are motivated. And inventory is good, selection is good in a lot of marketplaces. And so in a lot of marketplaces, ownership costs are less than rental costs. I mean, certainly in a lot of great markets, that's why you should be buying in those marketplaces because ownership costs are less than rental costs.

So that's all good stuff in terms of agents showing value to today's buyers. Anything else along that note, I mean housing affordability, long term fixed rate mortgages, tax benefits, the cyclical nature and understanding that now you're in a trough. So that's a great buying opportunity. Any other thoughts?

Well, the last one, and may call me old fashioned and maybe I am, but one of the reasons why, let's call it that we got into some of the position that we were in nationally is that maybe some people need to be more old fashioned. And my view is there's one advantage of real estate and that is equity buildup through mortgage pay down in the sense that people shouldn't treat their real estate as piggy banks or ATMs. And you know, the goal should be long term equity buildup through, you know, the paying off of your asset and the building of that asset through, you know, either an investment, if it's an investment property, paying that investment off and increasing your equity position, or if it's your primary residence, paying that asset off over time through paying your mortgage off. I mean, you know, I grew up in an era a little older than you, Jason, where, you know, my parents pay their home off, for God sakes. Certainly someday I'm hoping to do that as well. Actually, I'm within five years of doing that. So, you know, my goal is to.

Not have a mortgage for people who really have a tough time with the discipline of saving Money, their own home or investment property can be a good forced savings program in the future. Fortunately, I think it's not going to be quite as easy to access that equity as it was in the past, which I think that's a positive thing actually, because I think it, it makes it a little harder get to so people tend to discipline themselves a little better and use it as a forced savings program. So. Yeah, that's a very good point you make. That's a very good point. So, Dirk, where do you think the market will be? I mean, everybody loves predictions. Where do you think we're going in the next six months to a year from now?

I think fundamentally, if you're looking at a nationwide picture, it's probably going to be similar to what we're seeing right now. I mean, you know, if you're talking about, you know, the units and the volume, which is one of the, you know, elements, obviously, as a trainer and an educator of companies, and we work with most of the large major companies in a global capacity, it's going to be where it is. I mean, the interesting thing though, Jason, is when you look at the unit volume, number of real estate sales, if you look over the last 30 years, the average units of production, meaning homes sold in the United States over the last 30 years has averaged over 4.4 million transactions over the last 30 years. Over the last 20 years, the average number of units, homes sold over the last 20 years has been 4.9 million transactions. Well, we're on pace to do approximately between 4.4 and 4.9 transactions in 2010.

4.4 million and 4.9 million in 2010. So that's a good volume. Wow.

Yeah, we're about average in terms of production now. That seems tremendously down from 2006, which was 7.2 million transactions. Yeah, that was an insane year in 05 and 07. All those years around in there that we were doing 6.9 million transactions, 6.7 million transactions. Yeah. If you compare them to those years where there was just tremendous numbers of units and you could have been had a lettuce and made money selling homes in the United States. In terms of the volume, yeah, you know, there's a tremendous differential. But when you look at a historical view in terms of number of homes sold in The United States, 2010, 2009, probably 2011 will probably be somewhere in that 4.9 to 4.4 million units sold. It's going to be somewhere in that number.

Okay, so a couple interesting things on that. First of all, that is really interesting. That thing you didn't mention is there are probably about 20% fewer realtors that are members of NAR. I'm saying people that are with an association of Realtors and in the mls. So that actually corresponds not exactly with, but somewhat closely to the reduction in volume from those peak levels. And historically, again, if you average this over a longer period and you look for that kind of black swan as it's as with a book title, this is right about normal levels, isn't it? The only thing I wonder though, Dirk, is of Those statistics of 4.4 to 4.9 million transactions, how many of those transactions are foreclosure transactions where they're a bank just buying a property at a foreclosure sale? Or are those MLS stats? I'm hoping you're going to say they're MLS stats because those are MLS stats. Yeah. Wow, that's good.

Those are MLS stats. Those are not banks foreclosure type stats. Those are MLS stats.

Interesting.

So it's not a, not an internal changeover from a consumer to a lender.

Yeah. Now here's another interesting thing. And this is why the training that companies like yours offers is so important to agents. Because if you take those numbers and you divide them, it leaves really about four and a half transactions per agent per year. Smart agents, motivated agents, they want to do a lot more than that. And that's the average if you just divide it up. Yet you, you see out there some agents very successfully doing 70, 100, 150 transactions a year. What do you say about that in terms of how many transactions can an agent do? I mean, I remember when I was in the business years ago and I was four years into the business and I sold 78 properties and everybody thought that was like a miracle. But now a lot of people are doing that kind of thing, aren't they?

Well, yeah, I mean, I can tell you statistically there's a number of agents. I have a client, Mark Spain in Atlanta, Georgia. He and his team did 729 transactions.

Wow. Wow. How many people on his team have.

They were number two on the Wall Street Journal top 100 list of teams in the country. He has eight people on his team.

Amazing.

That's just very efficient, very efficient in terms of their production. I've got another client, Kathy Kaler in Kansas city. They do 497 units and she's got 26 people on her team. So a much different approach and strategy, you know, much more far reaching. Obviously more people but less in terms of units, much different operation. Mark works with a lot of builders in his particular marketplace and lists the inventory, not the builder inventory is production builders that he works with. But he gets referrals for the listings of the consumers that buy their inventory and list their property.

In some agents they've really started treating it like a real business now, which is really giving the profession the respect it deserves. When I got into the business, very few agents did it like that and now agents are just doing phenomenal things, really have made it a real business and are treating it that way. Back to your predictions though, Dirk. When you say that the market will be about the same in six months or a year, do you mean that it will be the price levels will be about the same as they are now or do you mean that things will keep declining? I just wanted to make sure I let you clarify that because about the same, does that mean things will still be going down or things will be about the same as they are now, did you mean.

I think the units and the sales and the sales volume is going to be about the same in terms of the number of homes that are selling in most markets are going to be about the same. The number of buyers and the sellers are going to be about the same. Pricing. I'm not sure what pricing is going to ultimately do in most markets. I'm not sure what's going to happen. I think the jury is still out on that particular one because at the end of the day.

Let me take a brief pause. We'll be back in just a minute.

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Jason, you and I both know that's a supply and demand equation and the crystal ball in terms of that is hard to predict overall in terms of supply and demand. I think the shadow inventory, you know, certainly the moratorium that's going on right now for the next 90 days roughly, or maybe it's two months, maybe it's three months, maybe it's even six months with the foreclosures and what's happening in some of those markets, some of the heavy foreclosure markets, you know, with the pullback in, no new foreclosures from B of A and some of the big lenders that are taking the breather now on those you Know, who knows what's going to happen with that. I think there's a rare opportunity right now though for the agents and for what I would describe as standard sellers to step into the marketplace and price competitively and get their inventory moved. Because there's probably a little bit of uncertainty on the part of consumers of do I want to buy a foreclosure property? Is there some risk there that inherently wasn't there, that they didn't think was there before, and now might be the time for a seller to reduce their price and get their house sold with some of that inventory coming off the marketplace or pausing in the marketplace right now. Certainly we've seen some of our clients lose some of their inventory that are working in that foreclosure marketplace and get called by some of the asset managers and say, we want to pull this one, this one, this one, this one, this one off the market because of the lending institution saying we're pulling these foreclosures off the market.

I just want to ask you to clarify if you would too, regarding that pause and be B of A announced it last week that they're stopping foreclosures in all 50 states. I've heard mixed things about this and it's a real wild card. People don't know exactly what it all means. But does that mean B of A will not be foreclosing on any more properties during this pause, or they will not be selling any more of their foreclosure or REO inventory or both?

It's my interpretation of what I've read is it's both at this point because.

I get mixed feedback on that and I'm not sure the media makes it very clear in the articles I've read about it either. So just wanted to ask what you're thinking on that.

What my thought is it's both at this juncture that they're cleaning up their paperwork. And you and I both know that this is a technicality at this point. These people are behind and they're going to eventually be foreclosed on and it's an attorney technicality to slow down the process or whatever it may be. But at the end of the day, it's going to be, you know, all it is is gumming up the system, right?

Absolutely. And it's making it a little longer to find the true price and value of properties because it's stuff has to clear the market for values to be established. What should buyers and sellers do? Based on today's marketplace? Real estate is all about a meeting of the minds between a buyer and seller, what should they each be doing? What should they be doing? Just being more reasonable to get deals together and make things happen or what are your thoughts around that?

Well, I think you hit the nail on the head. It's about reasonability, and I think the issue is the seller has to look at what's their upside. There was a great article and it was a couple months ago in the Wall Street Journal, and it was talking about. And they profiled four or five consumers who were, you know, selling and selling at a loss, but they were seeing the opportunity of buying in today's marketplace and they were willing to take the loss, if you will, to have the buying opportunity. So sellers that are having the opportunity to purchase have to be willing to put their ego aside to see the buying opportunity in today's marketplace if they.

Are in fact buying on the other end. Yeah, it's all relative to the other.

End and see the upside. Instead of that, they're losing $10,000 or $20,000 or whatever the number is on the sale side of their particular house. There's still too many sellers that functionally are struggling with the belief or the mindset that their home is worth less than what they paid for it before or whatever it may be that at the end of the day that they're going to have to come to closing with money or whatever the situation is. But you know, at the end of the day, there is, you know, I mean, there's no guarantee. You know, there just isn't any guarantee overall. And sometimes that's the way it is. But if you want to get the opportunity on the other end, you have to do what you have to do.

To make it work on this.

Yeah, you have to make it work for the other end with the buyer is you got to look at the short and the long term for the buyer. What's the long term opportunity? We see so many buyers now in the marketplace that are trying to time the bottom, the exact momentary bottom. And to me, I look at a buyer and they're going to be in the home seven or 10 years or whatever the long term number is. This is the home they're going to raise their family in. The reality of it is if you're a hair off from the exact bottom, that doesn't matter that much if you're going to be in the home for the next 10 years. You know, if you're six months off where the bottom exactly is in the scope of it, it means nothing.

Well, the thing I'd like to express is that, and we deal with this on the investment property side all the time, is that people don't understand how to define bottom. So everybody wants to think of the bottom in terms of price, like will the price. But I want to really encourage people to think of it as the effective cost, not the price. So for example, I'll just take a round number. $100,000 property, maybe it's not at the bottom yet and it's going to decline to $90,000. But when it does that, the mortgage rate on that property will increase by 1%. Now, 1%, generally speaking, equals approximately 10% in purchase price in terms of an effective cost. So if the rates go up 1.5% but the price goes down 10%, you've lost money by waiting. Plus you've lost the opportunity to gain the tax benefits and any other income benefits if it's an investment property from that property today or if it's a personal residence, the lifestyle benefits and the ability to get onto your with your life or to move where the employment prospects are better or to get your kids in a better school or whatever it happens to be. So really, bottom should be defined as effective cost, not price, right?

Absolutely. Yeah. There's a far more than the price. And everybody seems fixated on the price.

They sure do. People buy properties based on a payment, not a price. People buy or lease cars based on a payment, not a price. It's what, what does it work out to? And we've got such a great opportunity in terms of these interest rates now.

Yeah. And the question is, can you afford it?

Which is a question more people should have asked themselves years back.

But that is the question. I mean, that's the question agents need to focus on. Is, is the payment, can they afford it? Is it cheaper than it was before? Is it a good investment? Are you going to be there long term? Is it good for your family? Is it safer to buy today than it was in the old marketplace?

Those are all good questions, very good questions. So when agents are out there dealing with the constant barrage of media and their clients are always coming and saying, hey, I saw this online, I saw this in the paper. What, how should brokers, agents, how should the professionals be responding to media reports?

Well, they have to have their own media reports. I mean, that's the thing. Agents need to read the Wall Street Journal, you know, they need to read some of these things. They need to go out and actively search for the real estate articles. They need to know what their client, let's call it clients and prospects and other people are reading, they need to constantly be on the lookout for these type of articles like the Time magazine article, like the Wall Street Journal online article, like the different things. I remember I was doing a program, it was a couple of about a year ago in Vail for a elite company up there. And I said to him, I said, every one of your clients that buys a property up here, I guarantee you they'll read in the Wall Street Journal. How many of you read the Wall Street Journal every day?

Great question. And how many hands went up?

And I'm telling you, two hands went up out of a group of 50 agents. And I said, big mistake. Because every person you run into guaranteed, I mean somebody that's buying a five million dollar home, I guarantee you, is reading the WSJ every day.

Good point. No question about it. So you've talked a little bit about urgency and I have too, because I think you're very right about it. Can you give us any more examples of urgency and how either professionals can impart urgency to clients when the right deal comes along or to get them to make that meeting of the minds as a seller? What should people be thinking about there?

Jason, one of the best things that agents can do is one, they got to position themselves as a market expert. And we talked about that. They've got to know the benefits of buying now and have a list and a strategy of doing that. Probably the last thing that they can really do and do it effectively is they got to have what I would call client success stories. You're a speaker, I'm a speaker. We do a programs all the time. But great speakers have stories. They have stories that they tell and they weave into the points they're trying to make. An agent needs to have stories about people and lives that they impacted and testimonials about how somebody bought something in today's market that they couldn't have gotten before because of what's happening in today's market. They got to make it real for these people that they're working with now. How Bob and Susie are so happy in their new home and it wouldn't have happened in the old marketplace because of the interest rate, because of the prices coming down. Bob and Susie are now in this brand new home and here's how it feels. And their kids are playing out in the backyard when before they were in this rundown house. And they have to draw the story out. So these clients feel that it's okay to get in the water, that the water's Fine. And that somebody else did it before them.

That's a very good point. Stories are such an important element, and great storytellers are just better communicators, and they're just more successful people in any endeavor, really. I mean, great politicians, they tell stories. Great speakers tell stories. Great salespeople tell stories. Stories. Very important. Very, very good thing. So what are some of the characteristics of agents who are successful, especially in a market that most people would consider challenging? Although I know many practitioners now who are laughing all the way to the bank and they're. They're doing very well in markets like this. But what are some of the. Just the general characteristics, if you would share them for success?

Here's what I'll say. Jason. The most important characteristic, I think, in today's marketplace is sales skills. We have a generation of agents, and you and I grew up in probably the same generation in real estate, we have a whole new generation of agents. I mean, you look at NAR statistics, 69% of the agents that are currently licensed right now have been in the business less than five years. They don't know how to sell. They don't have sales skills. They don't have the same basis of skill set that you and I came up with in the business, the same training. They don't have the same scripts and dialogue background and same sales skills and same sales strategy. They learned relationship skills and bonding from these trainers that are out in the industry. They didn't learn sales skills. They didn't learn what we learned when we got into the business because it's been swept under the rug and thrown out the door because they didn't learn it. They don't know how to sell.

Yeah, good old sales skills. They're good with technology. A lot of them are good at that. But you don't make money sitting behind your computer all day, do you?

No, you got to get them face to face. You got to convert the lead. You got to make a great sales presentation. You got to be able to handle, you know, the objections that invariably come up in a sales presentation. You got to have sales skills. And the problem is most of them don't have it. You got to have sales skills. On the phone, it was interesting. I was asked, it was about a year ago by nar, and they asked me and a handful of other trainers in the real estate industry, and they asked the same question at the end of the interview, and that is, what do you think is the greatest sales tool that agents need to master? And I said, well, who else are you interviewing for this? And they gave me the list and I said what did they give you? And they listed all the different things. And I said that's really interesting, the responses you got. And I said, I'm going to give you the exact opposite and you probably don't want my response. And they said, why? I said, because what you got was technology tools. And he said, well, that's what we expected you'd give us. I said no. I said the most important tool still is the telephone because it's the one tool that you can get somebody in an emotional situation and you can drive them to a face to face presentation. You can't do that with some of the other tools that these people listed. The telephone is still the most important urgency building tool that you have at your disposal as a salesperson. It's still hard to do that with an email.

No question about it. Very good point. I remember when my mother got into the real estate business, she got her license about six months before I did. And one of the things that her broker said to her and this was in before the days of email and all that stuff, stuff they said, if you want to be successful, you need to just screw a phone into your ear, be talking on it all the time. And I always thought that was a great quote. I thought that was really good. So Dirk, last but not least, let's talk about mortgage originators for a moment and post mortgage crisis here. How is it that a mortgage originator and a real estate agent can work more effectively together? How has the originator's role maybe changed after the mortgage meltdown here?

Well, I think, you know, there's a teamwork aspect that needs to come back to those two relationships with the mortgage originator and the real estate agent. And because of this mortgage meltdown, the mortgage rates, all the different things that are going on, you know, we've got all these new laws with the appraisers and the mortgage originators and all the new barriers and everything. There's a real opportunity for the real estate agent and the mortgage originator to work more strategically together. And the opportunity that quite frankly, I think there's a lower barrier of entry for the mortgage originator to the consumer than there is for the real estate agent because the mortgage originator is looked on as what I would call a consultant. And the real estate agent is still that salesperson, probably always will be. And so getting the lead to the mortgage originator working in a concerted relationship, you know, sharing leads, working from both sides, if you will, working in.

What I would call a strategic partnership really creates the opportunity to convert leads at a much higher level and a much higher conversion rate and really works well together. And I find that most agents are really going it alone in a lot of aspects today and wait until they fully, if you will, convert the lead before they bring the mortgage originator in. And I think it, you know, it's a bad strategy.

So they're not really taking advantage of the team that's available to help them be more successful then.

Exactly.

No man is an island. Well, that's good advice, definitely. Hey Dirk, one other question I didn't ask you when you were talking about sales skills, good old fashioned sales skills and how so many people lack them nowadays. Is there a particular school of thought or philosophy around selling that you prefer? You walk into the bookstore or look on Amazon.com and a. There's, there's of course a zillion books on sales. What style of sales or philosophy of sales do you think works well for brokers and agents out there? Or do you sort of blend all the different schools together?

I think if you want to be effective in terms of real estate sales, we've got a lot of different courses that you can take if you come to our website@realestatechampions.com we have a lot of good virtual learning classroom. We do live virtual classroom courses, Jason, where there's a live instructor. It's live interactive. We do strategy tactics, sales courses for clients and we operate in the virtual realm and there are powerful courses that they can take. We believe in scripts and dialogue and strategy. So we believe in what I would describe as what I call the inverter triangle, where you build trust, you analyze wants and needs, you move into a sales presentation mode and then the final is confirmation. As opposed to the old triangle method, which is you bond, you qualify, you do Your presentation and 40% is closing, trial, closing and pound the poo out of them. That's the old inverted triangle method from the 70s that used to be taught. Doesn't work anymore.

No, it doesn't work anymore. I couldn't agree more. Well, good stuff. Well, Dirk, you gave out your website. Thank you so much for sharing all of this wisdom with us on the show. And that's Dirk Zeller, Real Estate Champions. We appreciate your insights on the marketplace and the profession as well. Thanks for joining us today.

My pleasure. Jason.

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