CW 1049 - Is A Recession Coming, Trickle Up Default, Yield Curve, Short-Term Rentals Hawaii Conference & More

Welcome to the Creating wealth show with Jason Hartman. You're about to learn a new slant on investing, some exciting techniques and fresh new approaches to the world's most historically proven asset class that will enable you to create more wealth and freedom than you ever thought possible. Jason is a genuine, self made multimillionaire who's actually been there and done it. He, he's a successful investor, lender, developer and entrepreneur who's owned properties in 11 states, had hundreds of tenants and been involved in thousands of real estate transactions. This program will help you follow in Jason's footsteps on the road to your financial independence day. You really can do it. And now here's your host, Jason Hartman with the complete solution for real estate investors.

Welcome to episode 1049. 1049. This is your host, Jason Hartman. Thank you so much for joining me today. I'm here with Doug, who has been on the show several times before. He is one of our in house economists or I'll say economic hacks like me. Like me, I'm an economic hack too. But sometimes the hacks know a lot better than the quote unquote experts. And we've seen that play out time and time again throughout history. So we're going to talk about a variety of things as they apply to our financial future, our investments and life in general. Doug, welcome. How are you?

I'm doing great, Jason. Thanks for having me on the show again.

Good to have you back, Doug. So there's been a lot of talk about the yield curve lately and I talked about it on the show maybe two weeks ago or so. The yield curve is flattening and some say that is a sign of a recession. And you say, I think, well, maybe I'm putting words into your mouth. Just correct me if I'm wrong. You seem to say that there is one other far more important thing that is the sign of a recession and it is not the yield curve. It is my favorite four letter word, right?

Yes, that would be debt. And so fundamentally the thing that causes the economy to go into recession is when people stop paying their debt service, stop making their debt service payments. Because like for example, if you go into the St. Louis Fred website, I think it's just St. Louis St. Luis Fred or just Google St. Louis Fred. One of those, one of the many things they track is total credit outstanding. And the way that I look at that is total nominal dollars of credit from all sources. And then you look at total nominal dollars of gdp. And so for example, if the economy grows by a trillion dollars, usually there's about 1 to 2 trillion dollars of debt growth. And so in the history, basically since the dollar went off the gold standard, the overwhelming majority of economic growth has been fueled by increase. Now that's not a problem until people can't pay the debt back. As soon as they start defaulting and can't pay the debt back, it has to be written off. And then that starts a cascading downward spiral that pushes the economy into recession. Money gets easier, it bottoms and the debt spiral keeps going back up until you get to a deleveraging like 2008 when things crash and just keep going down because there's no backstop, right?

Yeah, yeah, yeah. It's amazing. Now I want to make a distinction here though, that I think is kind of interesting because it's not only debts, it's commitments in general. So it could be a lease on a property. It may not be an actual debt per se. You know, when people think of debt, they think of a car payment, a student loan payment, a house payment, but it might just be people not paying their rent. And so the cascading effect, it's like, you know, we've heard a lot about trickle down economics. Well, when things go the other way, I call it trickle up. And I remember. I don't know if you heard this episode, Doug, because you don't listen to every episode. I don't think. Do you? Do you? Come on, admit it here.

I don't listen to every episode anymore. Now to be fair, you used to only publish once a week and it was easier to keep up. Now that you're publishing like three, four, five times a week, it's, you know, if I want to keep a day job, I'm going to. I can't keep up with all your statistics.

Play the Rodney Dangerfield clip that says I don't get any respect.

Get no respect.

I don't get no respect.

Well, I tell you, there is a another famous radio talk show host whose name I will not mention because it's politically charged. But he's a very bright guy, I'll tell you that much. And he publishes 15 hours a week of radio and does reruns on the weekend. So I think people can at least listen to my semi brilliance for an hour and 45 minutes a week. Okay. With three episodes, I tell you. Okay, so. And sometimes more. Yes.

No rest for the weary around here.

That's right. Hey, you know, people tell me they listen to a whole bunch of my different shows. Remember, you can listen to a lot of different shows, not just this one that publishes three times a week. There are many other shows out there. We have three episodes a week on this show. But there are other shows, as you all know. As you all know. But here's. You know, I love how you have repeated that quote to me more than once that socialism is trickle up. Poverty. I love that. By the way. That's a great quote. Poverty, yeah, Socialism, yeah, Trickle up.

You run out of other people's money to spend.

Yeah, yeah. Margaret Thatcher. The problem with socialism is that eventually you run out of other people's money. Great quote. Good old. The Iron lady knew what she was talking about, that's for sure. But on this thing, on the debt cascade, I remember a couple of weeks ago I was talking about the story of one of my office leases in Orange County, California, and how I found out that the landlord had not disclosed to me that there were leases in the building, even though I asked them to. But when you're in the commercial world, there's like no protection whatsoever, unlike the residential world where, you know, you can go write a letter to the Department of Real Estate and they all, you know, be all over these people. Well, maybe they will, but it's much more cutthroat, I'll put it that way. So anyway, I remember writing them a letter when I was trying to renegotiate the lease after I found out they lied to me and didn't disclose all these much cheaper leases. You know, I was paying 275 a foot and there were leases for like 96 cents a foot in the building. Right. And then I tried to sublease my space and they blocked me. They had other vacant space in the building. And I remember one of my sublease tenants was in there looking and I was trying to sublease the office space and then they came and in the hallway, literally, the landlord's rep stole those people away and tried to show them other space and building. Well, didn't try, actually did show them other space in the building and I lost them. So unbelievably cutthroat, the world of commercial real estate. But that's not my point. Point is, I remember I wrote them a letter and I said I was. This is the trickle up phenomenon at work, okay? It's the cascade you were just talking about. I wrote them a letter and I said, in the Great Recession that we are in, virtually every contract in the world is being renegotiated. Let me give you an example how it trickles up. We used to buy radio advertising on KFI well, no, we actually did not buy this because it was too expensive. I wanted to buy it where you could buy a one minute commercial on KFI during prime time. Like Bill Handel's radio show or very popular morning show on KFI at the time, a 50,000 watt radio station in Los Angeles. And that was like $900 for a 60 second spot. Okay, to run that. And then the Great Recession came and you could buy what's called remnant advertising. And because they had all of their advertisers were just evaporating like crazy. The remnant space was during prime time. It was the same exact spot. You could buy that spot. Doug, do you care to take a guess how big the delta was here? That $900 spot, that was literally $900 six, eight, ten months earlier when it was in the depths of the Great Recession. Do you care to take a guess at how much you could buy that same radio spot for?

I'm gonna guess 400 bucks.

No. 150 bucks.

150 bucks. This is why I think that old saying is certainly somewhat true. The rich get richer and the poor get poorer. Now, it's not completely true. We could agonize over that for a while. But one thing that is the key is that the rich have resources in hard times. And the poor, they are hurt by hard times, especially inflationary times. And they don't have resources. So they can't buy the bargains. Right. When the bargains are around and, and gain market share. So every company, their big market share gains. It's always during recessionary times when the playing field has fewer competitors in it. Anyway, just a little side note there, I am known for going on tangents. Okay, let's move on here. But that's the cascade. Okay, now guess what? My landlord, in that example, in our commercial real estate office, we had about 5,500 square feet in this gorgeous office, right? My landlord, they were having to renegotiate leases with their tenants as their tenants were all defaulting, right? But guess what? Trickle up, okay? They went to their lender on the building that had the, you know, had the multi, multi tens of millions of dollars that they had financed on the building. They went to the lender and renegotiated the loan. And then what do you think the lender did? Well, the lender went to the federal government and got a bailout.

And that was paid for by inflation, printing money and taxes, right? The regular income taxes and the inflation tax as well. So it's trickle up, right? Trickle up, yeah.

In Fact, I think a way that you might more accurately say it is that the thing that causes recessions is default. Whenever there's default on either a debt obligation, a lease obligation, a rent obligation in large numbers, then what that does is that arrests the growth of the debt spiral because. Right. People can't afford to continue paying, making the payments on their debt service or whatever other service, their lease or whatever. And so then those defaults then push the economy into recession until for whatever reason either, you know, either money gets made easier again, which is the Alan Greenspan model, or all the weekends get pushed out of the game. And as some people are fond of saying, the money get, the capital gets returned to its rightful owners and the capital structure reorganizes around productivity instead of just chasing whatever gets you the biggest paper profits.

Yeah, yeah. Well, that's what Wall street is so good at. They're so good at moving money around. They don't actually create anything. They move it and they try to allocate as much as they can toward the insiders. Right. That's the way it works. But speaking of Wall Street, Doug, we are now on a 10 year bull market. Now what's interesting is there's all these headlines and you know, oh, the stock market's so great, Wall Street's so wonderful. But what they don't remind us of, they don't. None of these headlines talk about how before this 10 year bull started, people lost a good third of their net worth, if not half of it in Wall Street. Okay. So, you know, nobody seem that right. But yes, if you invested at the bottom of the market, in the depth of the trough, yes, you've had a 10 year run, no question. So the question is though, this is the longest run, right, because we were coming from a very low low. How long can it continue? And you know, that's certainly a litmus test for the economy in general.

Yeah. And that actually is a really interesting question because of course, as many of your listeners well know, you know, I have a job. You know, I have a corporate job. I've had one for a long time. I work intel for quite a while. I work at a different company now. It's still in the semiconductor industry. But one of the things that I notice is that every company that's publicly traded, the company I work for now is publicly traded. Every company that's publicly traded gets pressure from analysts to grow their revenue and earnings at a faster rate, almost always in double digits. Now if you think about that, you're like, okay, if the economy grows at 3% a year. How can every major company grow in double digits? It's impossible, right? Because when you add them all together, they basically equal the economy. But now what do we say? What do the companies do to try to grow double digits? They go out and take on riskier projects, they do layoffs, they do all kinds of other stuff that very frequently blows up in their face because they're taking, they're making short term decisions instead of long term decisions.

This is one of the things that perverts the market, the US economy in general. It happens in the political sphere too, because of the way we view things as Americans. This instant gratification mentality of let's make the next quarter as good as we can. You can't manage a real business that way. You know, it's like you're beholden to the investors on this instant gratification treadmill. And well, you know, Bezos doesn't do that. But I was about to say, yeah.

Bezos is about one of the only people, Amazon's the only companies I know that really gets away with saying no. We're optimizing for maximum long term value and the market's going to do what it's going to do.

And for a long time, Apple not paying dividends. Same idea, in a sense.

Similar idea. Yeah, yeah, exactly. But of course the thing I always struggle with is I don't necessarily know a better system because just about anything else you come up with has ramifications that are undesirable as well. It's much like capitalism, it's extremely imperfect. It just happens to be the best thing we've got.

Yeah, right, right, exactly. But, but you know, if you look. And it's funny how the US has really just taken such a lead in the world. I mean, it's just grown more and more. But if you remember before we had our FAANG companies, you know, Apple and Amazon and Facebook and so forth. Right. And Netflix, before we had these really hot. We had the companies, many of them, but before they were doing their thing and make grabbing all the headlines in the world. Right. You know, people used to talk about Sony. Okay. For example, remember that? And they used to say things. I mean, I remember this, you know, 15 years ago, 20 years ago. I used to, I remember hearing people talk about how Sony had a 500 year business plan. I mean, I can't imagine that's even true, but that's what I heard. And I used to hear that in business books and read it in business books and you know, The Japanese seem to have this much longer term view. Now listen, Japan has been in the doldrums for about two decades. But you know, maybe, maybe that's just talk, right? But you know, they were the, they adopted the quality circles and all the great management stuff Post World War II and you know, had a, had a long, long run. So you know, there's certainly they deserve some credit for sure. But you know, do they have a longer term view? Does the Asian culture sort of just generally lend itself to that longer term view? I think it might. I think the Americans are really instant gratification oriented.

Yeah. I think if there's anything to really be concerned with as far as competitiveness versus Asia, I think that's it. Which is that there is a longer term view and there's a willingness by the populace and investor community to wait out short term bumps in order to win over the really long term horizons. I think that's probably the principal advantage that I think is going to be most difficult to overcome.

Now we, we shall see how that all pencils out. But see the thing the US has that it just has in just so much innovation, more so than other countries, there's just a lot more creativity in the US psyche. Maybe it's that whole rugged individualism heritage. I'm not sure what it is, but it's pretty unique country for sure.

I do believe to some extent in this American exceptionalism argument. It's, you know, having been to 81 countries myself, I think there's certainly something to that. And listen, I can't take credit for it. I just happen to live here. Okay. I'm just observing it. Okay? That's all.

The thing that's really important for a lot of people to remember is because everybody remembers the successes, but successes don't happen without failures. And so for every Steve Jobs, there's thousands to millions of people who had an idea that may have been just as good and failed. And it's all those people being willing to try and fail for the chance to succeed that makes the collective economy stronger.

Yeah, right, right. Well, you know, you know, that's, I'm glad you brought that up because the US is a very forgiving country. You know, people can file bankruptcy and reorganize and come out of it and start over and, and run for president and. Yeah, and while, hey, you can file bankruptcy multiple times and run for president, apparently just ask Trump. I remember during his bankruptcy, remember in the 90s that his, the trustee, the bankruptcy trustee put him on an. He and Ivana had to be on an allowance of like $300,000 a month each. Oh, tough life. 300,000amonth, you mean only 10 grand a day? That's all they could spend, Just austerity measures. I mean, they should riot, you know, but, but yes, you can start over and you know, this idea of fail fast, you know, fail often, fail fast, fail forward, and you can just pick yourself up by the bootstraps and do it again. And you know, there are a lot of success stories that came out of people that were down and out. They filed bankruptcy, they were, they had nothing and then they created incredible enterprises. You know, I mean it's, it's, it's, it's just amazing. It really is. So that can be very good for an economy, but you also have to think about the cascade behind that. Right. So there were creditors that got stiffed in that deal. Right. So thoughts about that because that's how we started this conversation that every economic downturn really starts with default on commitments, especially debt oriented commitments like mortgages, student loans, credit card, auto, etc.

Correct. Well, and, well, I think one of the things that a lot of people can get lulled into thinking, especially during long economic expansions, is that anytime you make a loan that people are going to pay it back or anytime you make an investment that you're not only that you're going to make money, but just that you're going to be able to get your money back. And that's not always the case. Right. Counterparty risk is real.

Oh sure, and it should be. Yeah, you know, it should be. And that's what that, you know, that book debt the first 5,000 years was fascinating. I played some of it on the show several episodes ago. I don't know if you heard that one, but fantastic book. And he started right off at the beginning of the book talking about how, look, if there wasn't some risk in being a lender, there has to be risk to keep the lender in check because then they would just be completely predatory. They would make every stupid loan in the book. Why would they underwrite anything if they knew they were going to get paid 100% of the time? That would be completely counterintuitive. There has to be risk in lending. If people don't default, they're not keeping the lenders in check. It's an odd way of thinking, but it really is. I remember years ago when we used to have a lot of inventory of properties to sell. I miss those days. But, but I remember years ago I did a Presentation, you know, for another group. And I remember one of the people saying that, look, they were looking at the Jason Hartman website, and they said, you know, they were looking at one of the properties and they said, this property isn't a very good deal. I don't think your deals are very good, he says. And I said, this is exactly what we want. We want you to reject certain properties. Now, nobody rejects anything nowadays because there's so little to choose from. But back in the day when there was a lot of selection and the deals weren't as good as they are today and inventory had increased, I said to him, I said, look, this is exactly what we want. We're offering a marketplace, and we want you to give feedback to our local market specialist that this deal is rejected. That's exactly the point. You know, reject the deals, please reject some of them. They're not all as good as the others. That's exactly the point. It's a feedback loop. If we don't give them feedback, they're just going to push junk on everybody. So the feedback loop is necessary. The same is true with lending. If borrowers don't default, there's no feedback loop to tell the lenders that they are making dumb decisions. And the problem is when we had this. What's the word I'm looking for? It escapes me right now. The moral.

Moral hazard.

Moral hazard, thank you. Yes, the moral hazard where the lenders were making any loan because we had corporate socialism, you know, there was no consequence. Right. There was just no consequence. There's nobody to put the brakes on anything.

And in fact, I was actually just about to say that I think the principle you're talking about is. Is even more important applying the other way, which is that if no companies ever default on their loans, then that means lenders won't hold companies to account. Because in the old days, what happened was the people who really held companies accountable were the bondholders.

Because the bonds vigilantes. Yeah, yeah.

The bondholders needed the companies to stay viable in order to make their debt service payments. But what happens is whenever there is an implicit backstop by the Federal Reserve, now the bondholders don't care anymore. They'll just chase yields up. They'll just chase down to, you know, double B, single B, C, you know, C minus.

Right. D minus, F minus bonds.

Yeah, exactly. Yeah. They'll just chase right at the yield curve based on the implicit.

It'll make Michael Milken's junk bonds of old look like stellar aaa.

Yeah, exactly. And. But back in the old Days. One of the main reasons why companies kept their books clean is because they knew that if they had anything that looks sketchy, that all of a sudden their debt was going to cost them 40% more to acquire and they weren't going to be competitive. And so but that's basically gone. And I think that getting that back is going to be a really important part of the US's long term sustainability in the global marketplace.

Yeah, really, really interesting stuff. Okay, so I guess start of this discussion, Doug, was to talk about what can we look for in the future of the economy? What is the prediction? We are certainly seeing a significant cooldown in the real estate market in the higher end real estate markets all over the country. I mean it is, you know, usually these slowdowns start from the bottom and trickle up. This time it's from the top and trickling down. Or maybe it's not trickling down, but at least it's going on at the top. The top of the market is very soft in many areas now. Inventory has increased, markets are cooling. It's certainly not true in, in the kind of properties that we sell. These cheap little investment houses are selling like hotcakes still. I don't know if that'll stay that way forever. I, like I've said, I hope, I don't regret saying this, but I'm hoping it'll slow down a little bit. Maybe not too much, but a little bit would be nice. It's very hard to operate in a market like this, but. Yeah. What are your thoughts?

I've actually thought about this quite a bit because I think the model in a lot of the higher priced markets has been basically to buy, lose money on the monthly negative cash flow and then hope for a lot of upside appreciation. Sell and then cover all your losses.

Yeah, that's called violating commandment number five, thou shalt not gamble.

Exactly. But I think one of the emerging trends that may be a really great opportunity that you and I are still working on really kind of cracking the code on helping investors capitalize on is the short term rentals. Because the whole idea with Airbnb and short term rentals is that you can realize much higher cash flow yield. Well now if I can buy in a higher priced market and still cover from a cash flow perspective by doing a short term rental right now, it doesn't have to appreciate in order for me to make money. I can make regular cash flow and just sit and wait.

You can basically apply the long term rental model that only works with the less expensive properties. You can apply it to more expensive properties. But, but again, you know, we will sell no wine before it's time, as the old saying goes over here. And we are pretty conservative group. We've been looking at this deeply and heavily for a good year and a half to two years now. And I have been interviewing thought leaders, experts in the field. We even hired a person that folks on the show you don't know. But we've hired an old friend of mine who is, is big in the short term rental business, is now working for us and we're learning a lot from him. He spoke at the Venture alliance meeting in New York City with you, Doug, and you two shared the stage on that. And we're going to talk about this more at the Profits in Paradise event in Hawaii. So I'm excited about that. We're gonna, we're gonna dive into the comparison of the short term versus long term rentals. We do have one short term rental market now and that's in St. Augustine, Florida. So talk to your investment counselor about that if you're interested. So more on that. But hey, let's make sure people get registered for the Hawaii event.

Absolutely. It's going to be amazing. Yeah.

Doug, what say you about that?

I think the thing that's going to be really great about Profits in Paradise is it's going to give us a chance to really dig into more of the details about what really differentiates the short term versus long term models and then also dig into how can you go about going from wherever you are now to building a partner portfolio. Because I think the way that we're going about the short term rentals is different than just about every other provider, than just about every other system out there. But I think it's honest to say that it's far more sustainable from a long term perspective and it's far more robust because most of the other providers and short term rentals are very big in the idea of, okay, you want to do lease arbitrage and you want to do it locally. I said, okay, well that's great if you live in an area where lease arbitrage works.

Yeah. And you're still not diversified. And a lot of those people have a lot of furniture sitting in storage units too.

Exactly.

And they've spent a lot of money on movers because, you know, those don't last all the time.

But yeah, exactly. You know, it's like the, in the old days, people always used to say, okay, well, invest in your backyard. And I say, hey, you know what? That's Great. If you live in Memphis, that's great. If you live in Indianapolis, what if you live in Los Angeles.

Yeah, it depends on where your backyard is.

Yeah, it depends on where your backyard is. Yeah. Because. Well, the advantage of our model is that we're basically taking our out of state investor paradigm and we're molding that into your short term rentals, into that paradigm so that people can be successful with this new version of investing that's retailed for the 21st century from wherever they live. And you know, Ben, basically anytime that you are pioneering new soil, that's not a trail that's easy to blaze, but we're blazing it because I think it really has to be done in order for our customers to continue having the success they have had in the past.

Okay, so I want to talk about one of the potential pitfalls on the short term rental side. And I know we got to wrap up here, but I think this is worth a thought experiment. I want the listeners to think about it. Feel free to give us some feedback or ask Questions@Jason Hartman.com Ask and while you're there, of course, go and get your Tickets for Profits in Paradise. By the way, I want to tell everybody there is an airfare war going on for tickets to Hawaii. Airfare is cheap to Hawaii right now. So one more reason to come and join us for profits in paradise. So jasonhartman.com ask for questions or comments and then tickets to Profits in Paradise are for sale there too. But Doug, here's the interesting thing. So I'm wondering where the occupancy is coming from. And this is pretty hard to analyze. So. So it's just going to be some food for thought. More than any, we don't have an answer for this. But just think about it, folks. We have seen this boom in the short term rental world and the hotel business, from what I understand, is doing pretty well at the same time. So where is all this new demand coming from? That's the question. And if there's a change in the economy, where will it hurt the most? Will the hotel occupancy suffer? Will all those people with VRBO and Airbnb suffer on the short term rental side? Will it be a mix of both? Where is all this additional demand coming from? At the same time we're seeing supply increase? I mean, in our studies we have looked at how this is affecting, you know, people converting their normal long term rental properties or their own homes in which they live to short term rentals. It's literally changing the face of neighborhoods. There's a lot of supply out there, folks. There's a lot of supply. And if you don't believe it, just go look online. There is ample supply of properties, and when you break those down by single, you know, room nights, the number of nights available to stay short term in hotels and short term rental homes has skyrocketed in the past maybe 10 years. Okay, so where's that initial additional demand coming from? And what's going to happen when there's a different cycle in the economy?

Doug, I think I'll answer the second question first, which is what's going to happen when there's a cycle, another cycle in the economy? I think the answer is that prices are going to compress. I don't think your demand is going to disappear, but I think your willingness to pay higher prices will be diminished. And then as the economy recovers and the willingness to pay higher prices will come back.

Pricing power is. What's that called? Pricing power. Exactly.

Yeah. And as far as where demand is coming from, if I'm being completely honest, I don't necessarily know. But the thing that's both intriguing, exciting, and a little scary is that I don't know that we have to know where the additional demand is coming from. We know for certain that there is a lot of demand. I can't say exactly who or where or why it's coming from, but I know it's there and I know it's growing. I don't know that it's going to grow forever, but I know for certain it's not going to go away. And so I think one of the things that's actually beautiful about the whole capitalist system is that I don't have to know why something is happening to take advantage of it. I only need to know that it's happening and that there's an opportunity. And I think that that's one of the things that I really want to impress on our investors. Yeah, I don't have to know why people want to do short term rentals. I only need to know that they want to do short term rent.

That's true, but it's worth examining motivation and ability because you're obviously not the ostrich type of person. I know you too well, Doug. We've known each other for, I mean, since you were a client, you know, what, maybe 12 years ago or 11 years ago, quite that long, but close. And you like to analyze things. You're an analytical guy. So when that demand dries up, up, or, you know, there's A sign of it switching. You want to be the first to know because you can react more quickly than other people out there, other investors out there. Right?

Exactly. Well, and I think the, the best insurance for a short term rental provider is to be a premium provider. Meaning that what you want to do is you want to provide the, you know, the highest end overall experience. Because as Nate, the gentleman you recently hired, said, the market is never crowded for quality. The best is always in demand. It may not fetch as high a price, but there will never not be a demand for the best. Never. And so I think that's the best strategy for a short term rental provider is to make sure that you're a premium provider. Because then even if your prices compress a little bit, your demand will never disappear because the whole thing is being able to have staying power. And if you have demand, you have staying power. You may sustain a few losses, but losses are inevitable. If you're in the game long enough, you're going to lose money at some point and then you're going to win in the long run. That's how it works for every real estate investor. In the history of real estate investors, nobody has ever made money every month of every year. It just doesn't happen.

Well, that's why we all have to think long term with everything in life. I mean, we just have to discipline our thinking to think long term term. Because it's the tortoise in the air. The slow and steady always wins the race. Right? So yeah, good. Doug, thank you so much for joining us and listeners, thank you so much for joining us and happy investing to all and we'll talk to you on the next episode.

We'll talk to you later.

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