CW 646 – Jawad Mian – Global Macro & Middle East investments, Stray Reflections

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Welcome to the Creating wealth show, episode646.646. This is your host, Jason Hartman. Thank you so much for joining me today. I literally just returned from Salt Lake City where yesterday we had our Jason Hartman University, JHU Live. Not a real university, real life. And guess what? It won't cost you $200,000 either. And you don't have to get any financing for my university. It's kind of a play on the whole university theme, which is highly overpriced and I'd say mostly overrated for most people, but not all. You know, you get a real degree in a real science, something that has real value in the economy, then hey, that's worth it. But a lot of these things are just, just a waste of paper. You know, maybe I shouldn't be that pessimistic about liberal arts degrees, but whatever. Anyway, I won't go into that. So our guest today will be Jawad Mia returning. Yes, he is returning. He was on just over 200 episodes ago, way back, I believe at episode number, I want to say 413 or something like that. Now we're at episode 646 and I'm glad to have him back. He's a super interesting guy. He runs newsletter called Stray Reflections and he's also working with another one of our guests who's been on a couple of times, John Malden, who's written at least one book out there. I think he wrote Code Red. Wasn't that. I read that one last about a year and a half ago, I think when it came out, I think that was John Malden. Forgive me for not getting the name of his book right. Possibly. Maybe I'm right. I think I am. But anyway, yeah, Jawad's got some really interesting outlooks on the economy. He came and met with our venture alliance group and he spoke to us for about two hours and he was just fascinating. I think everybody in the group felt the same way when we were in Dubai. That was just a few weeks ago. Jawad was fascinating. I mean he really had some, some interesting takes on the Middle east and what is going on there and the macro global economy. I really like studying and thinking about macro trends. There are many people out there who that call themselves economists and so for. And they're constantly talking about these little micro things. The people in the stock market that talk about technical analysis or charting the so called Chartist chart and ISTs at the end. Chartist can't say that quite right I don't think. But anyway they're out there and they're always looking at what's going on day to day and minute to minute. And I just think economics and stock market analysis and housing market analysis, it really loses tons of credibility when you try to predict these micro things. I am very much a macroeconomist when I look at things. I guess I got that back from my reading, well maybe my macroeconomics class in college but also back from my interest in my first, my first futurist many years ago who I by the way mentioned and not many people knew who I was talking about yesterday in Salt Lake City at JHU Live and that is John Nesbitt and he wrote the book Megatrends which was a big time bestseller way back in the day. Then he wrote a book called Megatrends 2000 and I used to subscribe to his newsletter in the 90s and I thought it was very interesting and John Nesbitt had a lot of interesting perspectives and maybe that's how I came to love futurists and predicting the future and thinking about big macro trends in the economy and in technology and in the housing market and the big macro trends for real estate investor. Because I think you can be pretty accurate when you're looking at big macro trends. When you're trying to look at these little micro trends like oh, what's the market in Memphis or San Diego or Indianapolis or Miami or LA gonna do next month? You're just smoking crack. I don't think you can predict that kind of stuff on these micro trends. It's impossible to do, you know, what's the Dow and the S and P gonna do tomorrow? Give me a break. Good luck with that one. But big macro trends, they have a lot of credibility. You can really look and see and forecast and think about what this big thing in society like the self driving car, which I'm so fond of talking about. I hope I'm not boring you with that discussion, by the way. I hope I'm not overstating its importance. Certainly there are a zillion other major technologies we can talk about that are quite interesting too. And, and maybe that's what we'll do. Maybe I'll sort of mute my talk about the self driving car and the autonomous vehicle for a little while because possibly have overplayed that discussion. So I admit I may have overplayed that one. So I still think it's gonna have a huge impact though, folks, I think you ain't seen nothing yet and you as real estate investors better be thinking about that in big, big ways. Okay, before we get back to Jawad, who's back on the show for the second time. Well, we'll get to that. A couple announcements. Number one, check out hartmaneducation.com hartmaneducation.com and get yourself a copy of our Meet the Masters home study course. Audio and video versions nicely presented@hartmaneducation.com that's a great deal. No travel involved. You can watch repeatedly. Some good materials there. I suggest this is my suggestion. Maybe it ties in with the way I like to learn stuff too. I'm quite a fan of audiobooks. I discovered those many years ago at age 17 when I discovered Zig Ziglar and Dennis Whateley, who changed my life in so many ways. And then later discovered Earl Nightingale and Jim Rohn. The spoken word is so, so much more powerful. There's so much more emotion than the written word. And that's maybe why I like Voxer so much. And it doesn't have to be Voxer, that just happens to be the medium of the day. But I do like the medium of voice. I like the medium of talking for so many reasons. And when you go to hartmaneducation.com you have the audio and the video versions. So let me just share with you the way I like to learn new information. Many times, but not always. I first get the audiobook of something. I'll listen to the audio and if it interests me and I want to drill down, then I will get the printed book. Now maybe the printed book is a digitally printed book, so I'll sort of hedge that one. It might be the actual printed book, but I'm trying to be more digital, so it might be the Kindle book. Right. And then I'll drill down and I'll really get into it because I want to visually see what they were talking about. And with the Meet the Masters Home Study course available@hartmaneducation.com if you listen to the audio first and the audio is portable, works in the car, works while you're walking the dog, works while you're at the gym working out, etc. Etc. It's portable. Then you can go back and you say, hey, you know that speaker or Jason or whomever they were talking about something that I just want to see it visually. So you go back and you look at the video and you can go right to that part and find it pretty easily there. And then you can get your visual reference as well and add another modality to your learning, the visual modality. So that's what we've tried to do there. Hartmaneducation.com Check that out. Get yourself a copy. I think you'll really enjoy it when you get access to that course. And enjoy that. And also, thank you all so much. For those of you who are newly expressing interest in the Venture Alliance Mastermind Group, a high level mastermind group for real estate investors and people who want to discuss great business ideas too, we've got our next trip coming up that will either be the last weekend of April or the first weekend of May. And it's going to be in a fascinating place. Not confirmed yet? No, Coco, I'm not going to spill the beans yet. A couple of our Venture alliance members already know what I'm thinking though. One of them, Gary Pinkerton, who was there, he came out to JHU in Salt Lake City. Thanks, Gary, for traveling almost all the way across the country to come see us and bringing a couple of your clients and friends to that event. That was great to see you there and it was so great meeting so many new people at JHU Live. We'll have another event here in the near future, but nothing planned yet except Venture alliance. So check out venturealliancemastermind.com venturealliancemastermind.com for more information there. And without further ado, let's get to Jawad Mia and see what's happening on the macro global economic and geopolitical front. All right, here we go.

It's my pleasure to welcome a previous.

Guest back to the show. He was a fascinating guest before and I think he will be again. It's Jawad Mia. He's an expert on Dubai, Qatar and Middle east investments. He's the editor of Scray Reflections Monthly investment Newsletter. He was one of our speakers in Dubai at our Venture Alliance Mastermind meeting and it's great to have him back. Jawad, welcome.

How are you?

I'm good. Jason, good to be back. How are you doing?

Good, yeah.

Thank you for joining us again. Well, there are so many things going on in the investment market. Many people are saying is there another shoe that's about to drop with the global economy or are we in a recovery? We've seen oil prices just tumble. It's amazing. I don't know if anyone could see that coming the way it has. Take it wherever you want, start wherever you like. What is your view of what's going on out there?

So there are lots of things happening on the macro front and we've discussed them in our newsletter. The biggest concern people have right now is that the Chinese economy is facing a hard landing and they're trying to devalue their currency to solve that problem. At the same time you've got oil crashing and the related effects with bankruptcies and loan defaults in the share energy space in the US and adding to that is the worry that Fed is hiking at exactly the wrong time when risks globally are escalating. The way we look at it, the market narrative is extremely pessimistic right now. The way we analyze the China situation, we don't really see evidence of a hard landing and the sort of coverage that we're seeing of the capital outflow situation doesn't make sense to us. The map just doesn't add up. So we actually think looking at Chinese economy in Q4 stabilized, Q1 looks to be an improvement as well and the outflows should lessen going forward. A lot of this has got to do with the dollar bull market because as the dollar rallies, the reserves have come down naturally as an exchange rate effect. At the same time you're seeing some Chinese companies paying back US dollar debt, which is actually quite healthy, not risky. And obviously there's speculation that Chinese will force fully devalued to protect exports. And again that's mistaken because even with their currency at an all time high, their global share of exports, their market share of global exports keeps rising. So I think people are overly bearish about Chinese prospects and we beg to differ. Similarly, oil is weak, but this is a supply driven decline, not really a demand driven decline. People are so used to thinking that higher oil prices mean growth is strong, so when you see a 70% decline they automatically assume we're in Chengo is actually when that's just not true. And I think the market has consistently overestimated the default rate and I think this will again prove to be the case. Usually when oil prices fall 50 to 60% in a year, faster growth follows in the next year. So we actually think 2016 growth will be quite decent and it will surprise a lot of the pessimistic predictions at this point in time. So it's difficult to be overly bearish despite the way markets are acting right now.

I know you said at the beginning a lot of investors and the economists think that the Fed is tightening at the wrong time, given what's going on out there. Do you agree with that? I mean, they've got to tighten it sometime. We can't be in this zero to negative interest rate environment for forever. It's been a long time. And not just the Fed, other central banks too.

No, I agree. So we've actually been proponents of the Fed rate hike. I think what they've done is a good thing. Monetary policy, frankly, has been exhausted. They've done all they could for the last five years. When everybody talks about unprecedented monetary policy, it's remarkable how no one talks about how We've also had unprecedented fiscal tightening. So for the last five years, you pretty much just had extreme monetary policy acting as an offset to extremely tight fiscal policy. Going forward. That will no longer be the case because interest rates will remain low. Fed can normalize because household balance sheets are much better, banks are much stronger and interest rates are pretty low. And at the same time, 2016 is going to be.

Going to be seeing the strongest fiscal stimulus since the financial crisis. So growth has been low because of these two forces acting in opposite directions. It won't be the same going forward. So I think the Fed needs to get out of the way and begin a normalization cycle. It makes no sense for interest rates to be where they are at this point in time. Inflation is also recovering.

Yeah, I couldn't agree more with the interest rate thing. It's just too much. Overall then your view is pretty optimistic, right?

Yes. The way we look at this is the dollar bond market, which began effectively in 2011 but really accelerated in 2014, is effectively distorting the macro picture. What I mean by that is because it affects data such as inflation trade. People look at the nominal stuff and they assume that things are very bad. As an example, retail sales grew at 2%, which is the weakest since.09. But then they fail to account for the fact this has got to do with the nominal decline in gasoline prices, which is actually positive. So if you look at the real growth in consumer spending, it's actually over 3%. So that's not actually that bad. If you look at financial markets, you could blame it on China, you could blame it on oil, you could blame it on anything you want. But frankly, whenever we've had a rate hiking cycle begin, you've seen financial markets panic and fret to adjust to that new environment. Because markets have been so used to excessive liquidity in the past, they need to now rely and depend on growth. And the dollar is sort of distorting that growth perspective going forward. When you have the Fed hiking, two things happen. The forward PE multiple compresses and the yield curve flattens. We are seeing the exact same thing right Now. The forward PE multiple has gone from 17 to 15. Typically stocks correct 10%. We've gone down 15%, which is frankly fair given the delayed tightening. We're seeing. The curve flattening is also in line with what past norms suggest. So we actually think this is nothing more than financial markets adjusting to a new rate hiking cycle. And as a dollar base effects and the energy base effects filter through, you're going to see earnings rise, manufacturing recover, inflation normalize, and the year will look very different in six to 12 months from where it does today. And asset prices will go on to reflect that.

Overall then do you think the stock markets are going to be okay or are they going to have a crash? Sounds like you think they're going to be okay.

No. Yeah. So we think stocks will probably have a positive year. Despite being down 10% globally, we think we can actually finish the year positive.

Interesting.

Jawad, I want to ask you about sort of three. I want to make sure we cover sort of three major categories in addition to what we've discussed already. And maybe you can take your pick out of these.

I want to hear about the real.

Estate market in Dubai. What's going on there? I mean, that's been one of these sort of famous real estate markets. When you look at the global picture and also.

All of the stimulus that has happened over the last several years, all of the money creation, do you think that's going to turn into a inflationary cycle? Ultimately it's been very tame. And obviously when you have such low oil prices, that helps keep it tame. And then the other thing is something.

That I don't know if you even.

Cover in stray reflections or not. That is this tremendous move that we are in the thick of now in terms of robotics and automation. It seems like there's a sort of a. If you were looking at a graph. It would be a hockey stick with what's going on with technology right now and the self driving car, all of these things that could displace a lot of people. I've been reading articles about, by 2020, just four short years away, millions and millions of people will be displaced by this technology and that technology. This has always happened throughout history, of course, but I don't know, is it different this time? These technologies are so much more powerful than they've ever been. We're not talking about the steam engine here, but I don't know, it's hard to predict this stuff. So those are kind of three areas I'd like to make sure we cover in this talk.

Sure. So to begin with, Dubai, we've seen literally from a macro perspective, a perfect storm over the last 18 months. Oil is down 70%. The main tourism spots or the main visitors for tourism, Europeans, British, Asia particularly, we're seeing their currencies go down considerably. So you should see naturally oil prices going down, sorry, real estate prices going down. And we've seen real estate prices, correct, about 30, 35%. And this is depending on which areas naturally. But on average you could say real estate prices have fallen 35% over the last 18 months. Considering stock markets are down more than that, it seems quite reasonable.

But as a resident here, as someone who's born and raised here, I can tell you it doesn't really feel like a perfect crisis. When you go out on the streets, restaurants are still busy, malls are still busy. If you go downtown, where the tallest building in the world is Burj Khalifa, on a weekday, you'll see so much tourists. So it's sort of fascinating for me to see such a macro storm. But when you look at stuff on the ground, visitors are still.

Growing and tourism is still booming. So it's interesting. And at the same time, from a real estate market, another interesting thing for investors is that even though real estate prices have fallen 30, 35%, rents have only gone down like 10, 15%. So you actually seen quite a significant improvement in yield, which makes it an interesting opportunity for buyers.

I'm so glad you mentioned that because that's the exact cycle that happens pretty much worldwide. It certainly happens that way in the US Prices go up very quickly sometimes and the rents lag. And so investors become priced out of the market when they look at the rent to value ratios. And ideally we try to get for US markets, good US markets that make sense. Not the high flying cyclical markets, but the good linear Solid markets, we try to get somewhere in the neighborhood of 1% per month in terms of rent to value ratio. And the same thing happens in reverse. When the market goes down, the prices can fall faster than the rents. The rents are far more stable and that's why cash flow is pretty reliable because you know, rents are set up on one year leases. They have a much more imperfect market. I don't know how you keep sales comps and that kind of data in the uae, but in the US it's pretty good. And that's one of the nice things for real estate investors here is there's good data around the world. It's far more fragmented, at least that's what I've noticed. But yeah, that's a great point. I'm really glad you mentioned that. So the yields are actually improving from a rent to value ratio perspective versus prices.

So price is down 34%.

Rents down or 35% you said. And rents down what you said, 10 to 15%, I believe.

Yeah, around 10 to 15%. Again, it depends on the area. But you know, the areas where you'd want to buy naturally would be where there's most demand and you know the values will recover quickly. Over there you're seeing very little.

Significant pullback in rental prices. So it's interesting for me, I think again, you want to buy when things are weak and sentiment is poor and I can't imagine a worse storm in terms of financially speaking and macro or politically speaking than what we're seeing right now in Dubai.

But this is the time to buy. I mean, this is the time to be contrarian.

Well, yeah, that's interesting. Okay, so we'll wrap up on the real estate market here in a moment, but can you give us an example of a property that an investor might be attracted to in Dubai? You know, like how much does it cost, what does it rent for? And what is it? Is it a single family home? Is it a condo?

Yeah, I mean, I wouldn't have specifics for you. I can tell you the locations which are interesting and I think the downtown area is interesting where you have the Dubai Mall and you've got the Burj Khalifa. That area is going to see some more buildings come up. But the stronger developers have some pretty solid properties and you should see them retain value. If you're looking at a one bedroom, for example, I would imagine it would go for something around, let's say $600,000 to $700,000 right now in a depressed sale, for example.

Okay.

And before, before you Answer. I just want to take a guess if I may. So six to seven hundred thousand dollars for a one bedroom and that's, that's going to be a condo, right?

Yes.

Okay, so that'll be a one bedroom condo and it'll be brand new or newer probably. Well, everything's newer in Dubai.

It'll be like 12 years old, 10 years old, 8 years old in that range.

And so I'm going to guess that that property will rent for maybe 3,500 to $4,000 per month. Yeah, I mean we're doing the US conversion obviously too. So what will that rent for? Do you have an idea?

That would nowadays probably rent for at least 35, $40,000 a year. Yeah. So around that area.

Yeah. Interesting, interesting. It's amazing how these ratios really just hold up worldwide. You can be in Paris, you can be in Dubai, you can be in New York, London, and the ratios are pretty reliable. You can just kind of tell, which is really interesting.

Well, anything else you'd like us to.

Know about the real estate market there?

Well, I think that pretty much covers it. I just think again, this is for sure.

Again, my family's been here for a very long time. So we've seen different real estate cycles and we've seen the different war cycles. Like every decade you've got some sort of unrest politically within the region. And historically that's just been a time where you want to accumulate assets. Frankly, it makes sense. There's nothing more to add. Let's just come down here and look at the different your options. Frankly, I think the other interesting point I'll make is unlike what you'd see in the developed world where you'll have to rely on monthly payments from their borrower or from the rent, from the lease, from the lessee here you usually get paid in lump sum or in two checks or in four checks. So there's even less.

Risk, I should say, in terms of securing payment in many ways. So that's how it, that's just the culture, I guess, and the demand where the borrower has less power than the renter and the renter can demand payment in quicker fashion.

You mean the owner, the investor. Right, has more.

The owner, sorry.

Yeah, right, yeah. Interesting. Okay, very interesting point. Very interesting. Well, good stuff. Do you want to take the money creation issue next as we start to wrap up here and just, I mean.

A lot of money has been created.

Out of thin air all around the world. I mean, Japan is even talking about more stimulus now. It's amazing. I mean, Milton Friedman and Hayek, they must be rolling over in their graves, this money creation. Even Keynes might be, it might even surprise him.

Yeah, I mean, it's been an extreme time for monetary policy globally. I think a lot of people have, a lot of people have frankly really misunderstood the purpose of QE and they've tried to see the effects of QE in inflation and in growth. And because they don't see it in both, they think QE has failed, frankly. You know, and we wrote about this in a very lengthy issue In December, frankly. QE's goal was not any of this. QE's goal was to one rescue. The banks provide a backstop. Banks are much healthier and at the same time help consumers delever and consumers have delivered to a large extent. Consumption is ranging at 3%. Keep in mind savings rates at 5%. That's extremely healthy. Lastly, the QE's function was to silently monetize the debt. What I mean by that is, as in Japan for example, the more government debt the central bank owns, effectively that debt has disappeared because any interest payments that are made are going to go back to the government as profits. And at the same time you're going to see the debt to GDP ratio if you have to adjust it for the central bank ownership of government bonds. If you do this globally, for example, if you look at the ownership that the European Central bank, the bank of Japan and the Fed own of government securities and you adjust that with the total debt, you're actually going to see, despite global debt levels rising or total debt levels rising, the debt to GDP ratio is actually going down because central banks are accumulating all that debt. And effectively once they do that, it's a write off because the principal will continue to be refinanced. We don't think the balance sheet size will ever be reduced. It will remain constant. So that was the goal. So effectively they've allowed another re leveraging of the economy, which means, contrary to what most people think, that debt levels are too high, debt levels can rise further and governments can sustain higher deficits for longer. So I think this is an important thing to recognize that most people don't really understand and it'll take time for people to figure out. The other thing I'd say is, to your point, technology is having a massive shift.

One more question before you go into technology. So just one quick question there on what you said about the debt levels. Do you see an inflationary future?

No, I don't. And that was my point because I think, I think one, if you look at the history of inflation, it's mostly been a result of war or a massive shock where commodities are just ripped higher. We don't see wars. Naturally, we can't forecast wars, but at the same time, we think we're in a commodity secular bear market, which basically means, think about this, 2011. Before 2011, before the crisis, you had headline inflation higher than core inflation for many years. Now, for the next many, many years, we're going to see headline inflation below core inflation. What was a tax to growth will become a stimulus to growth. So with commodities deflating, it's very difficult to imagine inflation running higher. So we don't see commodity inflation rising. At the same time, consumer and service inflation will be around 2, 3%, not higher. Because of structural factors too. Right, because we've got aging demographics. You've got the technology transformation that's happening globally. So while we don't think we're fitted for a deflationary outcome, we also don't think we're fitted for an inflationary outcome. So most likely you're just going to see low growth, low inflation. But people are going to confuse this, because even though the number suggests 2% growth and 2% inflation, there's a lot of change happening in the economy. And you mentioned robotics as an example, but Silicon Valley itself, we're in an environment where there's low gdp, but there's high change. So if you just look at the numbers, you feel yet we're in a secular stagnation. Frankly, I believe we're in a secular innovation cycle, and the future looks brighter than what people currently perceive.

That's a great way to put it. But what about technology and unemployment? Is that a problem?

I would again refer to history, and there's always been concerns around these massive economic shifts. You know, again, when technology was sort of displacing the agricultural sector, there were similar worries. Right? And you pointed to it, there were similar worries that we're going to have so many people jobless, it's going to create riots and we're going to fall into a crisis. But naturally, the economy is not static. It evolves and adapts and people evolve and adapt and things turn out to be okay. As an example, just look at oil in 2002. If somebody would have told you that oil is going to be at $100 when it was sitting at $25 at that time, you would have thought that we were going to be in a depression. Instead, the world economy was fine because consumer behaviors adaptation, learning changes, and technologies adapt similarly. I think going forward, given the demographic shifts, in a way we're reaching an environment where working age population is declining. So maybe if you look at Japan, for example, maybe less jobs created is not such a bad thing. Or let's say you get more technological transfers where robotics have become. Become more important because frankly, you're really running out of a labor force, you know, so. But having said that, I don't think it's going to be. It's difficult to predict, difficult to forecast, but I think just like everything evolves, it'll evolve in fits and starts. But I don't see a major crisis because of the technological transfers. The key to watch is not employment, it's just to watch the disruption. And that's been so key, the way Airbnb, Uber have disrupted different industries. You know, Google, Apple, all these different companies are innovating at such a large scale where the future is going to look very different from the present. And I don't think it's going to be all that bad.

Right.

Yeah, that's fascinating. You know, I always say it's an amazing time to be alive. And it seems like we are at a point where technology is just. It is on the verge of just massively amazing us, even more than it already has. The sharing economy, just everything. It's so incredible.

It really is.

Jawad, please give out your website and tell the listeners where they can find out more.

So Strayer Flexible is basically an investment newsletter. We've partnered with Malden Economics, so they can actually just go to Malden Economics website and look for us over there. And that's about it.

We've had John on the show, John Malden, a couple times.

Yeah. Wonderful guy.

Absolutely.

So they go to maldoneconomics.com to find your newsletter. Fantastic.

Yeah, they can just go to that website and they'll get more information about what we do, what we write. We've had a good year last year. Our portfolio is up 5%. And what we focus on is basically coming up with major investment teams and giving out, you know, trade ideas and hopefully working together. We can, you know, sort of navigate and help people understand where the world is going.

Excellent.

Excellent.

Well, it's been great having you on the show again. I look forward to seeing you in Dubai. Of course, I will meet you in Dubai before this show airs, but so that'll be kind of interesting and we look forward to having you talk to our Venture alliance group there. And thank you for doing that. Thanks for joining us, Jawad.

Absolute pleasure. Jason, take care.

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