WIN 27 - The State of Real Estate and Inflation with Elisabeth & Jason

Welcome to win the Women Investing Network, the podcast where you can learn from successful entrepreneurs, business leaders and real estate investors who are winning in business and life. Learning from others is the fastest way to grow your skills, gain knowledge and avoid pitfalls so you can win. Join our hosts, Elizabeth Embry and Jason Hartman. Elizabeth is a seasoned real estate investor, experienced corporate executive and skilled mentor. Jason is a self made multimillionaire investor, entrepreneur and highly acclaimed thought leader. Together with their successful guests, you'll get the tools you'll need to win.

Welcome to another exciting episode of the Women Investing Network. I'm your co host, Elizabeth Embry and today I have our co host, Joe Jason Hartman. Jason, welcome.

Thank you, Elizabeth. How's everybody doing out there?

You know, I think it's been about 30 episodes since we last spoke. So it's, it's a.

Time flies.

Yeah, absolutely, absolutely. And you just got back from a whirlwind European vacation.

Yeah, I don't know how much vacation it was. It felt like I was pretty connected, working a lot. So I would say it was a trip. I don't know if it was a total vacation, but yeah, it was a little bit of vacation. I mean, I, I guess certainly as much as I have at home because you're not always working when you're at home either. But that was my second trip to Europe this year. So this year I spent seven weeks in Europe and boy, I just kind of want to experience it a little more because I think it's falling apart. Their economies are just falling apart in Europe. It's amazing. But they've got huge demographic problems, immigration problems, economic problems.

They're like the US Amplified in many ways, it seems.

Yeah, that's. I guess that's a good way to look at it. I mean, it's a whole different set of circumstances, of course, but you know, Eastern, Western are very different. I was in both this time and last time. But you know, as we were talking about before we started recording for this, it's really valuable, I think, to travel just as for a human, you know, just for life, to understand and gain perspective on the world. I've always said that before someone should be allowed to hold public office, they should be required to travel the world and own a business, you know, have a broad perspective and support people and have the obligation to actually make payroll every two weeks. Good experience for politicians. Right, but.

And I think that travel just gives you such a neat perspective. Now one of the things that you were talking about is like all of the troubles that you've been seeing and all of the, I'm assuming some fun stuff too. How has that impacted your thoughts around as an entrepreneur, as a business person? How are those things impacting your thinking?

Well, when you say troubles, what do you mean?

Oh, well, for instance, you were talking about the immigration challenges, the population challenges, the economic challenges that you're seeing in Europe.

You know, one thing is for sure, and I guess the most prescient lesson for it is Japan, if a country doesn't have a birth rate, it basically becomes extinct. I mean, the environmentalists have this saying they always say, talk about when they refer to species extinction, they say extinction is forever. Extinction is forever. And that's true of people and countries too. So when you look at Japan and they used to call it the lost decade and now we can call it the lost two decades, actually entering the lost third decade, it's not necessarily an economic problem per se that Japan has. What it really has is a demographic problem. And when you don't have young people coming in to support the old people, that makes society lopsided. And the reason the US has escaped that is because the birth rate among the what you'd call not really natives because nobody's really much of a native except American Indians in the U.S. but the sort of native U.S. people for the last 200 years, right, or a hundred, is those people aren't having many children. But the US has taken on a lot of immigration. So that's the way the US has kind of escaped that problem because the immigrants are paying into the system and even, you know, and then of course, the US has the reserve currency of the world and all kinds of advantages that other countries don't have. It can print money until the end of time and not be really held accountable for it like other countries have to be. And so, you know, but that is one way that the US has escaped some of the problems that say Japan is facing. And other countries to look at this example are Russia and in 10 years, China. I mean, China, Elizabeth, because their one child policy is going to, they don't have it yet. It hasn't hit them yet. But the thing with demographics is you can absolutely positively know what's going to happen. You know, in 10 years everybody will be 10 years older. There's no question about that. Right. And so it's a really sort of easy thing to project, right? As some, some other things are very hard to project, right.

And then when you've got these patterns of places like Japan where you've seen, you know, how their Culture and how their, their birth rate and their demographics have. Have played out over time. You can see that established pattern and then see those other countries starting to follow that.

Oh, no question. Yeah. And if you don't have those young people working to support the old people as they retire and live too long in retirement, I mean, when Social Security was invented, the average lifespan was like four years after retirement. Now it's 30. Okay, so you can see there's a problem there. Right? We have another show that you're all too familiar with called the Longevity and Biohacking show, another podcast. And there are just huge, wide ranging issues here that affect societies all over the world because people are just living so much longer. And not only are they living longer, but they're living healthier. I mean, why the heck should we have 65 as this sort of retirement age, if you will? I mean, retirement. Well, I propose that retirement is not good for people. You could retire. I could retire. I have zero interest in retiring. Because as soon as you retire, you're probably going to die pretty soon.

That's something that people ask me often. They're like, elizabeth, why don't you just kick back at this point? You know, your real estate wealth has helped you enough that it covers so much. Why don't you just go find an island and kick back? And I'm thinking, well, I just don't want to. That doesn't sound like much fun, honestly.

You got to be stimulated and engaged in life, and it's not really about the money. It's about doing cool things and creating. I mean.

And contributing.

Yeah, and contributing. You know, I mean, you're hosting your show, for example, Elizabeth, is, Is one of your forms of art, okay? It's. It's art. It's just like Steven Spielberg making a movie or George Lucas or whatever. It's art also for me.

I mean, it's an opportunity to give back to the young women and men that are becoming entrepreneurs. They're growing their careers. They're just starting to think about their wealth strategy and starting to build that foundation. I mean, being able to give them that one stop shop of. Not just my knowledge. Not just your knowledge. And your knowledge is extensive. I mean, you've been doing this for a number of years, you know, a thing or two. But the fact that we're pulling in all these amazing speakers with their perspectives as well, it's. It's really a great opportunity to, to really contribute and help others grow, to become, you know, successful as well.

Absolutely. Yep. Couldn't agree more.

So when you're having these conversations you're going into. Sorry, when you're going into these different locations, you're starting to be able to strike up conversations with the people that are around you. You're getting these fresh perspectives too. And that's one of the things I love about traveling because then I'm learning about things or I'm hearing about an existing, you know, a challenge, an idea, whatever, but from somebody's completely different impression. A different way of training, a different way of thinking.

Yeah, yeah, no question about it. I mean, that's just a really important thing to gain perspectives. And just look at the way things are done and look at the sort of gadgets people use. And they're just these whole different ways of thinking. That's what, you know, I always say, Elizabeth, I have this morbid fascination with communism. I would really love to go to North Korea.

But I'm too scared. That's why I don't go.

Please don't.

Yeah, yeah, no, I'm not going. But I've been to Cuba and I've been to pretty much everywhere in the Eastern bloc and I've been to Russia. It's really quite fascinating to see how, how people think, you know, in the, in these places. It's really just eye opening. It really is.

Absolutely. So speaking of perspectives, you know, I've been, as you know, historically really focused on residential. I don't know that much about commercial real estate. And I had an opportunity to meet with this local group here in Seattle, this local group of women, badasses. I mean, these women are just like really at the top of their game. They work in some of the largest commercial real estate companies in the US Here in the Seattle area. I know on one of your recent shows in Creating wealth, you talked about where all the cranes are going. And you know, that's a foreshadowing of not only the work that's here today, but, but all of the ability, all the places that people could rent or live in the future, but that it can get to a tipping point, it can become a bubble. Now here in Seattle, I've seen a 10 year cycle in residential and in commercial. You know, that's been like clockwork. And so for me it felt very frothy. The perspective of these women who are very knowledgeable, very experienced, was that, no, we're just going to blow right past that 10 year dip because there's so much business coming in the area, there's so much demand coming. And I was really surprised and I'd Love to get your thoughts, because for me, I've got these tried and true indicators when I'm looking at a market. And from their perspective, they were like, nope, this time it's different.

Okay, Right. And by the way, Elizabeth, I'm so glad you said those words, because those are the famous last words of every investor who eats it. This time it's different. Be very careful with that kind of thinking, okay? They always say, I mean, from back to the days of tulip Mania, okay. A couple hundred years ago, they always say, this time it's different. So those words are very dangerous words. But just want to make sure the listeners and I understand what your argument is, is that there's a business cycle, Right? Is that what you mean when you talk about 10 years?

Yeah. So in Seattle, you know, I was working at Washington mutual on the IT side, but for home loans. I've lived here since 89. And every 10 years, like clockwork, we get this massive constriction of the, of the residential market. And then all of a sudden, there's something that happens and you can't give away a house. You know, for instance, my residence fluctuated literally 100% over the last 10 years. I always see this, this cycle of, you know, it's a very cyclical market. Everybody's flush with cash, and real estate is very tight. And then all of a sudden, you know, real estate is very prevalent. You can buy a house for really inexpensive. Everything goes 30, 40% below its high, and then it starts coming back out.

Yeah, well, okay, so let's examine that. So why has that happened? Because, you know, part of the business cycle is there's this concept of as the economy starts to take off, people start feeling more comfortable, there's a wealth, they have more cash in their pocket, they have more equity in their house, their business is doing well, their job is doing well. You know, maybe they're getting a raise or they're climbing the corporate ladder. You know, businesses are expanding and they're opening a new location or putting in new infrastructure and technology, and that has a multiplier effect because it creates jobs. So all of this does happen, right? They, they stock up on in, they increase their inventories, and, you know, there's all these trailing effects in the economy from all of this spending, right? And then it goes too far. And then they wonder, well, now I've got all this infrastructure, I've got these new locations, I've got more inventory, I've got more systems, I can handle more business. And where are all the Customers, we overbuilt.

And that happens in the real estate market. It happens in virtually everything.

I Remember in the 80s in Dallas, they just overbuilt so much that I think it was a. I don't know, it was like a half a decade before they started filling all of those different commercial buildings. You know, I think, yeah, those are.

The see through buildings. Okay? So. So they have those in Dallas and Houston. They've had them all over. And what that means is, you know, there's no tenants inside those beautiful glass office buildings. You can see right through them. Right, right. And so, yeah, that's. That certainly happens. The only thing I would say is, and you've heard me talk extensively, I know you probably plug your ears and don't want to hear it. Our childhood president, Donald Trump, okay? Our president, who thinks he's Blair on Gossip Girl or he's still running a reality show, I don't know which. But love him or hate him, okay? And you know, I love him a little more than hate him, even though, I mean, I just think he's like a kook. Okay. In a bit of a way. But I'll tell you something, regardless of what you think of him, he is loosening the floodgates of money, okay? And in real estate, there's this thing that we've talked about extensively before, and I've talked about very extensively on my show called Dodd Frank, right? And this was a very poorly written 2,200 page bill, and it has really constricted the real estate market. And Trump wants to repeal or at least soften Dodd Frank. And as that happens, more money will flow, and as lending requirements are loosened, more money will flow into the market. So that's one thing to know, okay? The other thing to know is that when you look at these, like the business cycle, and the business cycle is a legitimate thing, okay? It certainly has happened throughout history, but remember, we came off a very low low. So the question is, is it fair to argue that during the Great Recession, the worst economy we had in seven decades, is it fair to say that, well, the cycle started in 2000. Well, really, we don't say 2007, that would be 10 years, but say it started in 2008 or nine. Right. So nine or 10 years it's been going, right? You could argue. Or even 2010. So seven years it's been going. The economy's been on an upward trend since then. And so it's time for a recession, Right? That would be the thinking. But I would kind of caution against that thinking a little bit only because we really didn't get to sort of par until maybe 2012. Okay. So we've only really been in the boom for five years, I would argue.

Fair enough. It's like whether you're trending up or trending down, I just remember. So I view Seattle's health by the traffic on the street. And what I mean by that is in 2000, when we had the tech crash, the tech bubble, you could get anywhere in 15 minutes. Now the same distance takes you an hour and a half, right? So when people aren't working, that's when there's no traffic. When people are working, it takes you forever. And we've had these very consistent, almost bite, like clockwork, these outside catalysts that force the cycle. But it magically happens in this 10 year cycle where, you know, for instance, Boeing was the largest employer in the area and you know, in the late 80s, it started laying off people. Then there was the tech bubble, then there was, you know, the recession. There was, you know, there was just all of these things that very consistently happen. And so I think it's fair to say it's like, where are you actually at in that cycle? But it still feels very frothy to me.

Yeah. Well, okay, so now that we kind of addressed that part of the general business cycle concept, now I think it would be fair to look at specific real estate markets. And then of course, we got to do our usual thing. And you've talked about this a lot to your listeners. The three basic types of real estate markets around the world. Doesn't matter where you are, okay? It's all the same. Linear, cyclical and hybrid markets, okay? Those are the three basic types of real estate markets. A linear market is one of these boring markets. You don't hear about it on the news, it chugs along and does its thing. That's what we like. We like those linear, very reliable markets. The cyclical market is Seattle, Louisiana, Virtually all of the west Coast. The expensive northeastern markets, South Florida, Paris, Hong Kong, Dubai, London. All of these major metros, all these trucks, trophy places around the world are cyclical markets. And cyclical markets have big glorious highs and really ugly lows. Okay? They are a roller coaster ride. And then there's the hybrid market, which is the sort of in between. Hybrids would be Austin, Texas, Phoenix, Denver, places like that. Atlanta. Yeah, Atlanta is now a hybrid. But before it was pretty linear. But yeah, now I would call it a hybrid. You're right. So in the cyclical market, we are way past the Point of fundamentals, like nothing makes sense in Los Angeles or Seattle. These markets, they're very overvalued. But here is the thing, the question is, just because I said they're overvalued and we're past the point of fundamentals, and I know, Elizabeth, you'd agree with that, just because we said that and it's true doesn't mean they're going to crash tomorrow.

Okay, well, that's a fair point, Jason. That is a fair point.

Yeah. Nobody knows. The question is how long can it go on? And nobody really knows the answer to that because, you know, even though the market is massively overvalued today, if Dodd Frank gets repealed and you know, a bunch more money flows into the real estate market, hey, it's gonna keep going. We're kicking the can down the road. Okay?

So one of the things that I think that Trump has been really clear on is his frustration with our existing trade agreements like NAFTA and immigration. And just in general now, in a lot of the coastal markets, we've got a lot of Russian and Chinese investors really snapping up real estate left and right. So let me ask you this. Knowing that we're in an inventory shortage, do you actually think it's a good thing if they start getting blocked from buying, or do you think it's a bad thing because now the prices for the existing real estate are going to start dipping?

I think they distort the market, okay? That kind of foreign investment distorts markets. It's illogical because a lot of those so called investors, and I wouldn't call them investors at all, are very wealthy people from overseas that are literally just parking money because their countries are so corrupt and so unreliable that, you know, America, I mean, has great rule of law, okay? You know, we can complain all day about, you know, how the court systems are a mess and everybody sues each other here and all that kind of stuff. And, you know, that's all true. But compared to what? I mean, compared to what? I mean, America has fantastic rule of law. Investors from around the world always. They call America the Brinks truck because it is a safe place to store your money. So a lot of these foreign investors in all the places you mentioned are literally, I mean, they're buying stupid things, right? A lot of them buy high rise condos that make zero sense and they just leave them vacant, right?

Like you said, they're parking their money.

They're just literally parking money. And it's better than putting it in their own country. You know, a Lot of times it's a diversification strategy, it's a safety strategy. It's. They don't trust their own government, they don't trust their banking system. I mean, I was talking, it's part.

Of their cultural norm too.

Yeah, I was talking to a Ukrainian girl when I was in Prague just a few weeks ago and she said the Ukrainian banks, the joke is that if you put your money in the bank in Ukraine, will you ever get it back? Like, you know, that's, that's basically what we're dealing. I mean the stuff we take for granted. Other people do not take this for granted. Okay.

And I know that even just in the day to day habits like you're mentioning, in Russia it's common for you to put your pay voucher into it. Atm, you pull all the money out and then you put the money back in and you pay your utility bill, you pay your water bill, you pay your cell phone bill, you even buy travel through a kiosk, the same kiosk, this kiosk functions as like a transfer station because nobody wants to leave any money with the bank. They don't even want to leave it in there for a second.

You know what's going to be really interesting? I mean I always say it's an amazing time to be alive and what's going to be really interesting and we're starting to see an inkling of it now and I think it's super exciting. Although I don't know what it really means yet. It's too early to tell. T E T T Too early to tell is the innovation in the banking world and payment systems. Certainly there have been the cryptocurrencies which by the way, I wouldn't risk too much on that because I think that that'll be squashed. But there's all kinds of like peer to peer models that are rising up and just different interesting things in the world of banking. You know, so much of the world is unbanked that I think this is going to, I think it's going to be really good.

Yeah, I think that the fact that your phone, the mobile currency systems, your phone actually works like a wallet and we have very little like Apple, Apple Pay or Android Pay in businesses as a norm. So for instance, I think there's here locally, there's Chevron stations that'll take Apple Pay and Home Depot.

Yeah, those are the only things.

Right.

But I think Walgreens will take it.

Walgreens, okay, good. So there's three stores.

You know, you can get Trader Joe's takes Apple Pay, too. Yeah.

Okay. So you can get an Apple, you can buy a hammer and, and get some aspirin.

Yeah.

But, you know, it does seem like we've really got to get off the, the concepts of, you know, the standard wallet. And I know we've talked about this a number of times, but the fact that the US Dollar, it's anybody's guess where inflation is really. And so the value that's perceived versus the value that it is, it'll be interesting to see where it goes, especially since it seems like things are going faster, the changes are taking place faster these days.

Absolutely they are. Hey, Elizabeth, you know what? I'm glad you mentioned inflation, because I talk about that a lot on my Creating wealth show. But I want to just talk about that for a moment, if we can, with your listeners. And of course, the government manipulates and lies about the true inflation rate. And there are two main reasons for the government to want to do that. Number one is that all of these government employees, their pay and all the entitlement programs, disability, Social Security, et cetera, they're all indexed to inflation. So the lower they state the inflation rate to be, the less the government has to pay. That's one reason. The other reason is because just generally, you know, if you want to keep the populace happy, you've got to mislead them into thinking things are better than they are. Okay? So the ways that the government mainly manipulates the inflation rate is with substitution hedonics and waiting. Okay? And when you look at an index like the cpi, the Consumer Price Index, they'll substitute things. So if the price of beef goes up, they'll just substitute it for chicken, and they'll say everybody will just eat chicken instead of beef and there's no inflation. Okay. And when technology gets better and you buy a new laptop computer and that computer is twice as good as the last one you owned, but it costs the same price, they'll say you only paid half the price for it when you really paid the whole price for it, because they'll say it's twice as good, which is an absurd idea because hedonic adjustments basically say that we as people aren't entitled to progress. The progress goes to the inflation index rather than to us.

Yeah. Which is just not fair. That's ridiculous.

Could you imagine, Elizabeth, then hedonically indexing everything in the world since the time the wheel was invented? So the wheel made things so much better than, you know, horses are walking on foot before we had the wheel. So we should just hedonically adjust everything because a thousand times better we'll assume it only costs a thousand times less. And then weighting just how much they weight each item in the index. Right. But there's another hidden thing here. And Elizabeth, you've been there. Like when we were in Seattle at our Venture alliance retreat that you and your husband Neil helped us host up there. You remember our Venture alliance member Jeff? And he was just so funny and he, he was having a couple of drinks and he was just ranting about inflation, right? Oh my gosh.

Yeah.

And saying there's just not really hardly any inflation, blah, blah, blah. But I beg to differ because when you look around the world now and live your life, you gotta notice that even though the price of something may not have changed that much, number one, it got smaller and lesser number so the bag of chips weighs less than it did. Okay. And there's all kinds of ways that they're cheating us there. The chocolate bar is not as big as it was, et cetera, et cetera. But the big one is this. You ready? It's self service. We are doing so much stuff ourself nowadays. When we go online and buy an airline ticket, no one's helping us do that anymore. It's all self service, right. I mean we've been pumping our own gas for decades now. Do you remember I, when I was a kid we used to have full serve and self serve and the guy.

Would check.

In Oregon. But they also have income, you know, state income tax and all sorts of taxation to cover for that. And the, and it's indicated in the price as well. But you're right, I mean I, I've been trying to sell some property.

Oh yeah. With roof stock. Yeah.

That hasn't. Well, it hasn't gone as well as I'd hope. But you know, the shtick is, you know, you're going to have less of a fee because you're going to be, you're going to be doing a certain amount of self service. It's going to be easy. Right? And I'll tell you, the amount of effort I put into that, I really wish that they would have just charged me the full price, you know, in order to.

Right. Index your time into the inflation index with all of the stuff you do yourself nowadays and then you'll really know the inflation rate. There's been a lot more inflation than you think. I mean all day long I'm just doing everything myself.

Right. The automation.

No one is helping me anymore. You gotta call and wait on hold Forever. When you call any company and then you're talking to, you know, some drone in the Philippines who's reading a script, I mean, it's super annoying.

The thing that gets me is I can't handle the self service checkout line. I will actually wait in line for a teller one because I don't want all the jobs to go away. I actually want the tellers to, or the checkout people to still be there because I actually like service and to be able to.

Well, you're fighting, you're fighting a valiant fight for the working class hero against a trend. You will not win. I know automation will win. You'll just prolong it a little bit.

It frustrates me to no end. I don't know how to bag. I don't want to know how to bag. I want somebody to just run this stuff through, bag it for me, maybe even take it to my car like back in the day.

Oh my God, nobody does that anymore. Yeah, yeah, no, it's, it's a different world, self service folks. You're doing a lot of stuff yourself nowadays and that is part of the inflation rate. It's deceiving. But think about how Your life was 30 years ago and you didn't do all this stuff yourself. You had a travel agent, you had a concierge person that would get you tickets for events. You know, all kinds of stuff is self serve nowadays. You know what drives me nuts is these. And I call me terrible, okay, maybe I'm a terrible person, but I was at New York. I had to stay one night in JFK on the way back and I was at the hotel and I go down to breakfast to have the, you know, $19 breakfast. Okay, the crappy $19 breakfast in the hotel.

I was like, that's a cup of coffee and a Danish maybe.

Well, no, there were some crappy scrambled eggs too. But the so called waiter, all he did is put the check on my table. He never said, do you want any coffee or water? I had to get up, get my own coffee, my own water, everything self serve completely. And there's a space for tip. And you know what I wrote in? I wrote self service and no tip. I didn't write no tip but I just wrote self service. Like why should I leave a tip? He didn't do anything except put the check on my T. And now I know I'm going to hear from people saying you're terrible. Look at all these restaurants now that are like these modern restaurants where you go up to the counter and you place your order at a restaurant and they turn the little screen around like the little iPad cash register. And the tip is either 15% or no, it's 18, 20, 25% or 30% for what? This is self service.

And the reason why people are going to say, jason, you're a meanie, is because they're saying that guy has to or that person has to survive off their tips. Because we've already created this situation where there we're already saying provide the absolute minimal amount of service because we're going to try to automate everything. And so that person, that, that ratio of, you know, waiter to restaurant attendee, so to speak, you know, person at the restaurant is probably 1 to 30. So he does, he doesn't even have the bandwidth to provide any decent type of service, let alone did he not get any training. But his employer is probably put in a wage that doesn't even allow for him to have a living wage unless he got a bunch of tips. Right?

I hear the liberal coming out. Yes, I know. I don't disagree with you. I just think that people have got to stop viewing these minimum wage jobs as careers. They were never meant to be careers. When I was a kid, you would work at McDonald's when you were in high school and then you would actually get a real job eventually. Right. You know, but now we've got this whole class of the working poor. And I admit it's really sad, but the solution is not The Bernie Sanders $15 minimum wage solution because that's just gonna create more inflation and more automation and less jobs. What the solution is that you've got to stop looking at these things as careers. You should not work at Taco Bell or Starbucks for any more than a year. Okay. When you're like a kid, that's what it's for. They're not careers.

So I'm going to shift gears on you because one of the listeners I was talking with the other day asked me a question and I didn't have a good answer for. And I know you know the answer to this, which is she missed.

If I don't know the answer, I'll make it up.

Okay, good. So she, she, unfortunately she was behind on listening to the podcast, so she missed the ability to go to the Oklahoma City property tour. And she was totally bummed about that because she was really excited about being able to actually go and see the properties. And she asked, so when's the next property tour? When's the next event? And so when's the next property tour. When's the next event?

Jason well, the next event that we actually have on the calendar is our big one, our big annual event, Meet the Masters of Income Property in January in the San Diego area. And people can find out about that@jasonhartman.com and that's a big three day conference and it'll be awesome. We've got some terrific early bird pricing. Tickets are selling like hotcakes for that event now. But we will probably do a smaller event in the fall sometime which will maybe be a buying event or a property tour or something. And you know, look for that around October sometime.

Okay, terrific. Well, Jason, thanks for making the time in amongst all your whirlwind travel. It was good to catch up and have a great day.

It's always great talking to you. Elizabeth. Thank you and happy investing.

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