Apple’s iPhone Duo, Meta’s Muse AI Agent, Anthropic Researcher Quits Over AI Doom | Diet TBPN
10 Sept 2026 · 32 min
In this episode of the Diet TBPN podcast, host Jordi Hays and several guests discuss three major tech news items. First, they examine Apple’s newly announced iPhone Duo, a fold‑able iPhone, debating its design (no visible crease, dual‑screen UI), pricing (estimated $2,000‑$3,000), potential use‑cases, impact on screen‑time metrics, and whether it represents a meaningful innovation or merely a premium flex item. Second, they shift to Meta’s launch of the personal AI agent Muse, describing its capabilities (shopping, email handling, integration with Stripe Link, customizable names), pricing tiers ($20‑$100/month), competition with Instinct, integration strategy via Instagram/Threads, and concerns about compute costs and hallucinations. Third, they cover the resignation of an Anthropic researcher who quit the AI industry over existential risk concerns, summarizing the debate over a "P‑doom" probability (10%+), reactions from other AI researchers, and broader industry discourse on AI safety, regulation, and public perception. Throughout, the conversation weaves in historical references to Steve Jobs, speculative AI optimism, and cultural commentary on tech hype versus real value.
Chapters
Well, Apple has announced the iPhone Duo, their foldable phone.
Big question right away. How is this going to impact screen time? Does your screen time go twice as fast because you're actually locked in on 2 screens?
Should you do pixel-adjusted screen time too? If you're watching a laptop versus an Apple Watch, if I spend an hour on Apple Watch, is that like 15 minutes on the laptop? On the triple monitor setup, getting triple the screen time.
We have the AirPods with the cameras. They didn't do that.
They haven't announced those. I don't think they're going to.
Yeah.
Gertman's reporting.
But when that comes, that could potentially help you add to your screen time by tracking screens out in the real world that you're seeing that aren't getting picked up.
True. Eventually, it's going to be 24/7 screen time. Everyone's looking at a screen everywhere. There's a screen everywhere. You're looking at the windshield of your car. That's the screen.
Can we pull up some real pictures of the Duo? Here it is.
Here it is, the Duo.
So in this video, there is no crease. I'm sure the YouTube tech reviewers will be hunting in all different lighting for creases, but it feels like Apple waited long enough to avoid a crease whatsoever. So you will get no crease in your iPhone.
That is crazy. Sitting there, boom.
It's cool. It's cool. I think this is going to sell like hotcakes. I think people are ready to spend— it's going to be like $2,000, maybe $3,000 when you max it out. I think the Apple buyer, the Apple fanboy, is ready for something Something that actually is a flex beyond like a slight upgrade. You paid 30% more for the Pro. This says you pulled out the big bucks. You dropped 2 grand.
Well, and that's been the thing, relative to how much value you get out of a phone, phones have always been incredibly cheap, even the highest priced iPhone.
Yeah, you spend more time on your phone than you do in your car, and your car's 10 times the price of your phone, always, if not more. I think this will sell very well. It'll be interesting to see if any new apps come from this, if people need to redesign stuff. Like, we're having Mikey from Suno on the show later today, and Suno has an app that's really full-featured for iPhone. You can make songs, you can scroll a feed of other people's songs, but you do have to pop over to desktop if you want to get into their composer and actually deconstruct the song and shift around different pieces of the song.
Yeah.
And then you get a sort of GarageBand interface. Even using A lot of normal iPhone apps on iPads, it usually just doesn't feel quite right scrolling. So I think there'll be a couple UI/UX opportunities, challenges, both. Interesting little bezel there where you can see the screen is curved, but it's on a blocked out squared off edge there in the center. 2 cameras on the back, 1 on the front. Leaving room for the iPhone Duo Pro with 5 cameras or something like that.
Yeah, yeah, it really, it really shows that the phone seems to be— at least the iPhone is certainly in its final form, right? This feels like the biggest step forward in a long time, and yet it does absolutely nothing new for you.
A rave review. Uh, until they do—
no, it's like, it's like paper that folds out. It's moderately, it's moderately exciting because we're all— it's moderately exciting because Everyone's addicted to their phone, and it's like cool new new screen. But it does nothing new for you. It doesn't move humanity forward any way at all.
Jordy, you're going to be able to watch two reels at once, and they're both going to be vertical.
You think so?
Yeah.
What do you mean? From the demo that I saw, it looked like it was you put the video up top, and then you iMessage or iMessage.
Well, that's because that was horizontal video.
I don't think you'll be able to open two copies of Instagram at the same time.
No, I think it'll be more like the. The iPadOS where you can have different windows.
So you think you'll be able to do YouTube Shorts and Instagram Reels side by side?
Ideally, hopefully.
Ideally. Brain rot final boss over here wants to do it.
And then you can have the third one on the back.
It's exciting to see John Ternus get a big win like early, like first thing as the CEO, first major, you know, Apple event. And it's an entirely new product, the foldable phone, something that's been rumored for years. They didn't tee him up just to do a minor iteration.
A Mac mini refresh.
Exactly. Yeah, it's exciting that he got to come out strong with this. And it's also less of a risk than the Apple Vision Pro. If they'd thrown him there, then he'd be remembered, oh, his first thing was sort of a flop.
Even though I don't think it was.
Yeah, I think this is going to be a hit even though it doesn't matter at all.
I think it's going to sell very well. I think a lot of people are going to buy them for a variety of reasons. But I think it's just a good way to kick off a really strong decade-long run Hopefully 4 decades. Cook couldn't make it to 95 in the seat, but Ternus, I think he got it, what it takes. I want to see Ternus running this place.
So you're 100% getting the Duo?
Yeah, I think I'll get it. I'll need to feel how it feels in my hand, but at one point I was considering carrying an iPad Mini as my daily driver phone because I was like, they— so they come with Wi-Fi.
6.8.
6'8, so I have big pockets. And so it would actually fit in my pocket. And I don't like the phone feature of the phone. I don't like getting phone calls. So you lose that because it doesn't have a cellular connection. So it doesn't have a phone. So you can never call me.
And it's not like you need a phone number for anything else besides calls, like logging into pretty much any service.
Yeah, you can do 2-factor on an actual authentication app. I think you can get by. You might need to have a Mac Mini hooked up somewhere that has a phone number attached to it that can route you 2-factor codes or something. But it did seem doable. Or you just check your phone, your actual phone with the phone number at home later. But every day, you just have this iPad Mini that you pull out. And it has a cellular connection. I don't know that it can actually get phone calls. But it has a cellular connection.
Yeah.
So you can get data. While you're out and about. So you can be out in the world and scroll Reels.
Data.
What else do you need? You don't need to make calls.
Big data.
I don't know.
Yeah. I mean, it really comes down to, look, the phone is lighter, thinner, faster.
It's not lighter. It's not thinner. It is probably faster. It's bigger. This is the opposite of your meme. Typically they come out and they say it's lighter, thinner, faster, thinner, faster, thinner, faster, 12 times. It's the best iPhone ever. This is actually a different direction. This is a response to your joke.
Here's something.
Yeah.
Would you rather search work in iMessage or be able to get the Duo?
Search work in iMessage?
Like search in iMessage.
Yeah. Oh, you want that to work? Yeah.
Personally, I would be excited about functional features of the core software that I use with the iPhone, among many other things. But Kate over on X says, mentally ready for my iPhone to start being slow, laggy, and having a bad battery.
You have that to look forward to. So did they— they also updated like the normal iPhone. Is that right? Did you watch a little bit of the earlier keynote?
Yeah.
I mean, they already said that one is thinner, lighter, faster, better, stronger, all the different things.
They updated Apple Intelligence a bunch. So there was like all the things that they were talking about.
I thought they haven't launched it yet. I thought this was the launch of the Siri, like it's actually gonna go out now.
Correct, yes. Yeah, this was in the launch video.
Okay.
And also the old iPhone, or not the old iPhone, but the new normal iPhone 18, they were like, oh, the battery is like much better. So all those things that Jordi, they like said about the new iPhone.
I don't know. It'll be interesting. I'm excited to get it in hand, see how it works. I don't, it might be too much to open that thing up. I'm thinking like it's pretty easy just to like flip out.
No, for you it's great because you're such a newspaper guy.
I do like a newspaper.
Put your feet up on the desk and fold your phone open.
I'm scrolling. Yeah, something like that might make sense.
I don't know.
I don't know. I was reflecting on Steve Jobs. I saw a viral video about Steve Jobs predicting ChatGPT in 1985. And the video is incredible because he arrives to this talk. He's giving a talk at a university. On the future, it's just Steve Jobs view the future in 1985, and he arrives on a helicopter with an entourage, and they all get out of this helicopter, and they go into this. It's amazing. Kind of unrelated, but more of a where is it? King in the castle, king in the castle. Because the video kind of takes kind of takes place in a castle because you got to watch Steve Jobs in 1985 predict modern AI. Pretty well.
And I read this, I became immensely jealous. And I think I would have enjoyed that a great deal.
And so pause. And he's the lead-in to this. He's saying, I'll just read the transcript. He says, did you know that Alexander the Great's tutor for 14 years was Aristotle? When Alexander the Great had a question, he would just go to Aristotle. I think we can play the clip from the beginning now.
Do you know who Alexander the Great's tutor was for about 14 years? Aristotle.
Aristotle.
And I read this, I became immensely jealous. And I think I would have enjoyed that a great deal. And through the miracle of the printed page, I can at least read what Aristotle wrote without an intermediary. And maybe if there's a professor, they can add to that, but at least I can go directly to the source material. And that is, of course, the foundation upon which our Western civilization is built.
Blazing the printing press.
But I can't ask Aristotle a question. I mean, I can, but I won't get an answer.
And so—
Perfectly timed soundboard.
My hope is that in our lifetimes we can make a tool of a new kind, of an interactive kind. And so my hope is someday that When the next Aristotle is alive, we can capture the underlying worldview of that Aristotle in a computer. And someday some student will be able to not only read the words Aristotle wrote, but ask Aristotle a question and get an answer. And, uh, that's what I hope that we can do.
It's so crazy. He's just like, we gotta We gotta compress all the data down and be able to give it a conversational interface.
Large language models with a simple interface that anyone can use.
It's a crazy, crazy prediction 40-something years ago. Steve Jobs is probably the most famous techno optimist, the most successful techno optimist. The bicycle for the mind quote, that one continues to hit constantly. But you can see his excitement every time he gives a keynote. He'll just be on stage like giddily testing GarageBand. But his delivery there too is something really, really special. I mean, you noticed that, right? Where he asks a hypothetical question, then, well, I could ask, but I wouldn't get an answer. And he kind of like lets the laugh lines kind of land and lets the audience— he has really good—
He's basically the Mark Gurman of CEOs.
I guess.
Mark Gurman's the GOAT journalist.
Yes.
And Steve is one of the greatest founder CEOs ever.
It's just really, really cool timing.
I'm surprised it took you that long to kind of—
Because I thought you were talking about Mark Gurman's comedic timing, which is fantastic.
But— Mark Gurman's delivery of Apple, he truly has Apple intelligence. And his delivery—
That's true. That's true. —is phenomenal. So yeah, I mean, you can see— Ben Thompson's called this out a few times. But when Steve Jobs introduces GarageBand, he is just so excited about this product. You can see him in this one video introducing GarageBand 1.0 with John Mayer, which is really cool. He has John Mayer come out and just like play some stuff on the guitar.
This is where I want to show you loops. And I'm going to show you what a non-musician can do.
And he's just like chilling there on this computer on this stool using this tool and just doing a live demo. And if you scroll forward about halfway, you'll see John Mayer comes in and plays some songs toward the end. There you go.
It's a British invasion.
He's just having fun. And so with the power of modern LLMs, you can ask an AI version of Steve Jobs what would he think about AI. I did. And I think the answer is somewhat interesting. He said, probably yes, with very strong opinions about what makes AI worth using. That's speculation, but his own words give us a surprisingly good basis for it. In 1985, Jobs imagined computers capturing a thinker's underlying ideas so that a student could interact with them. You could actually ask Aristotle a question. He was already enthusiastic about something resembling a central promise of conversational AI, but his enthusiasm would come with 3 demands in this hypothetical Steve Jobs analysis. One, you gotta give people new abilities, learning, designing, composing, building would probably excite him most. 2, you have to make it effortless. I'd expect him to push for AI that understands what you want with minimal instruction. And 3, you have to make something excellent. I suspect he'd value AI's ability to help someone realize an original vision much more than its ability to produce enormous quantities of generic content. He would be anti-slop but pro-AI. Aristotle also had an interesting AI take in this imagined LLM version of Aristotle. He'd care more about what AI does to our character than and how intelligent becomes. The conclusion of this is Aristotle would favor AI as an instrument of human flourishing while resisting the idea that a life requiring less human effort is automatically a better life. You must continue to create. You must continue to work. You will be unsatisfied if the robots are doing everything.
Create more than you consume.
Yeah, exactly. It seems pretty clear that Steve Jobs would be excited about AI or some form of AI, but what would the reaction to that be in the modern era? Because I tend to think that there would have been the natural cycle of reaction because of— there's a whole host of things: political polarization, economic stagnation, wealth inequality, negativity bias on social media. There's so many different incentives that the desire, the impetus to tear someone down is unavoidable. And so I think we would be in this weird era where a lot of people would be excited about that particular vision for AI, and yet there would still be You know, viral videos complaining about the latest Steve Jobs keynote. But what do you think? Because you've called for like the Steve Jobs of AI, someone who's an optimist, someone who talks about empowering humanity, focus on human flourishing, agrees with the Aristotelian philosophy around AI. But what would the actual reaction be? Is that actually a panacea or would it fall by the wayside like all other attempts at Positivity seemed to have fallen by the wayside.
I've come around to the technology itself being fundamentally scary, even though it's very cool. And then you factor that in with, with certain actors that are trying to position it as even, you know, more scary than maybe it is, you know, inherently. And I think even if we still had Steve with us, it would still be a mess, and he might be nicely counter-positioned, but Doesn't stop other people from, you know, poisoning.
Maybe not, maybe not.
Poisoning the discourse.
What do you think his P doom would be? Over, under 10%?
1%.
Probably.
He seems like a 1% guy.
He's the 1%. Wall Street Journal, they didn't talk about math. It made it to the digital version, didn't make it into the paper. Navier-Stokes did not make the paper edition of the Wall Street Journal, but Meta and their new personal AI agent did. It's right here. Meta launches the absolute state of traditional media.
Hey, this is Meta.
Probably it's more profitable as a business perspective, right? What are you going to do? Sell math theories? Navier-Stokes was a $1 million prize. You don't think Alex Wang can pull a million bucks out of this?
This could be a trillion-dollar prize.
They can get— they haven't monetized it yet, but they got to put ads in this thing. And will they do agentic commerce? What will they do? We were very excited talking to Soufanator yesterday about AGI for small businesses, for folks who run ads on Meta. I still love that idea, but they're going a different direction. They're doing personal superintelligence. Zuck's been talking about this for a year at least. He's put out a lengthy blog post about how he wants AI to diffuse, how he wants everyone to have AI. And now everyone does with the Meta Muse app. That's a separate app that you get that will book restaurants for you. The Wall Street Journal has a little bit of a story here. Meta Platforms is betting that making AI agents easy to use will get mainstream consumers to start adopting them in their daily lives. The company on Tuesday announced a new personal AI agent that can buy goods online. I think they partner with Stripe on Link. So I don't know if that just means that when Link is enabled on a particular checkout, it'll be a little bit smoother, or if it's like it's going to try and steer you towards things that are linked. It can respond to emails. And so do you have to link it to your Gmail, I guess, to get that working? And complete other tasks users authorize it to do for them. The agent called Muse is accessible via dedicated app. Users operate the agent by conversing with it like a typical chatbot and can choose their own names for it. I saw some really funny ones. Tyler called his Mark. I saw someone else that's— someone gave it a really funny name. Like they said, like, you can pick one. And then the name of the agent was just you can pick one or something like that. A bunch of funny hallucinations always happens with these products. Everyone's going to Have fun with them. The new tool is Meta's latest attempt to monetize its massive AI investments, which are expected to top $130 billion this year. The AI agent is free to access for most of what people need and has 2 tiers of subscription plans for power users: $100 a month and $20 a month. Anthropic and OpenAI have quickly built multibillion-dollar businesses around agents capable of performing complex computer tasks. but most of that usage is driven by software coding or other business applications. Consumer adoption of technology lags behind, offering Meta, Apple, and other companies potential for catching up. The fact that we've given such a powerful technology in a package that is going to be really digestible for the product is one of the things that will set us apart from lots of other agentic products, Meta's AI chief Alex Wang said in an interview. Ben Thompson was raving about the fact that it gives you a pretty powerful VM. 8 gigs of memory and 8 gigs of storage that is yours, sequestered. And they're also implementing a lot of the security features that they have done with WhatsApp, where there's end-to-end encryption.
Yeah, they got Moxie pulled into it, apparently.
That's really cool. Moxie's a legend. So great on the recruiting front. Everyone loves Signal and great team there.
Yeah, the question is how It sounds like if there's— they're actually giving every user a computer.
VM, but yeah.
Yeah.
It's like virtualized, but yes.
Yeah, but the cost—
Serious computing resources.
Yeah, yeah, but the cost is going to probably be pretty significant.
So, the VM most likely like spins up when you use it and then, you know, taken down when you're not using it. So, the actual compute hours that are associated to anyone but a power user and of course, Very quickly, you can wind up spending $20 or $100, and that's enough to just pay for a virtual machine. Like, you can go and rent, you know, a true virtual machine to, like, host your website on DigitalOcean for, like, $20.
So Kaz, the CEO of Opendoor, went to X and said— posted a screenshot of him asking Meta AI in WhatsApp. And he said, please make WhatsApp the main interface for these things, Alex Wang, please. And he just says, how do I use Muse? And Meta AI responds, Muse is a free AI assistant from Anthropic. You can use it on the web, on mobile, or through their API. Yeah. Go to Claude.ai, create an account, and log in. So I'm looking at this post, I'm trying to find why is nobody talking about how Meta AI thinks that Muse is a product from Anthropic and is telling people to go log in there?
That is weird that it would hallucinate that Muse is from Anthropic because there's not even any connection between those. It's not like Anthropic ever had a product called Muse that I know of. Very odd. But Meta AI, of course, is running an older LLM. And then I believe you get— you still get thrown into a LLaMA model, I think, when you're on Instagram, if you wind up in an LLM chat. And so there's going to need to be unification around all of these different products, and they're gonna need to eventually talk to all the same models. But of course, there's like scaling and all sorts of different issues that you need because some of these products that they've gotten to scale are pretty significant. Even, even if they're not like the most talked about, when you are a hyperscaler with billions of users and you vend an LLM into something like you've deployed that at scale, it's doing a lot. And it's like, you know, the new Gemini 3.7 Flash, bunch of great reviews, great benchmarks on things, but like they can't just stuff that in Google Search on day 1. Like they have to actually scale it up. Like, yeah.
The question I have is, does this seem like this was something they were working on prior to Instinct gaining traction, or is this an Instinct clone? I saw one post that was saying, you know, that, that rumor that they tried to buy it, which makes sense.
R4Rock says there's a rumor going around that Meta and others made a 10-figure offer for Instinct. That's a crazy valuation for a, what, 1-year-old company, something like that. Uh, Instinct turned Turned it down. Now Meta has launched Muse. And that's literally what the post is. Meta has launched Muse and now the timeline is reacting. It'll be a big deal. Sounds familiar. Yes, Meta was able to win Stories. How did they do that? They didn't win by launching a Snapchat clone as a separate app. They won by putting it in Instagram, which already had the install base. And so if Muse works its way into Instagram, which a lot of people do use, it'll probably get a lot of adoption. If it's a separate app, it's a little bit trickier. Now, the Threads playbook worked. They routed a lot of people to there. Threads shows up on Instagram. It has an advertising surface area. It's pulled over— what are they at? A couple hundred million? Hundreds of millions of MAUs.
And again, it's hard to fully understand the value of that because they're counting somebody who clicked through clickbait on Yeah, there's that.
And then also—
But there's a really robust— there's a robust, like, real community of pure Threads users. The other thing that I think about is, like, Meta has the advantage of being able to, when you open all their apps, just put a huge billboard. They make ad inventory just for themselves.
Yeah, with the Ray-Bans.
The specs where you open around Christmas. Sorry, sorry, sorry. Sorry. It's a little— Slip there. But when you opened Instagram in Q4, it's like, buy some of our, you know, glasses, right? And so I would expect— I don't think they're going to do that until Muse has like—
yeah, significantly get the early adopters on and figure out all the kinks and stuff. Growing Daniel Kim says Meta has been working on Muse for almost a year now. You have to believe that that's true. The Manus acquisition ties into that. The Zuck messaging around personal superintelligence. I mean, even when we interviewed him a year ago, we were asking about Oh, am I going to be able to use your AI to actually buy? If I see a pair of shoes, will I be able to just buy it? And he was kind of like, I'm not ready to announce that yet. But it was very clear that that's where this was going. So I don't think it's an Instinct clone. I think it will compete with Instinct. And I think it's tricky because Instinct is pretty early and they are going up against a big company that's been investing and has a lot of resources to go after this very, very hard. At the same time, Consumers come to Meta to be entertained. Muse feels like a product for productivity, and I'm not sure that people will put them in the same buckets. Like, it's very unclear. At the same time, people do a lot of shopping on Instagram, basically just scrolling. Really? Oh, for sure. Not actually checking. Are you joking? What? I'm just messing with you. No, no, no.
So, so like, it's like, it is like the most dominant shopping app of all time that's positioned as—
But particularly, people will go there and not just search things, but just casually scroll and linger over things so that they get retargeted, visit websites, and then have the ads come to them. And so you can imagine that on the shopping side, that there's a lot of traction there.
Yeah, a lot of excitement around this climbing the chart. It is currently— Muse is number 3 on the charts.
Not bad.
App Store after ESPN Fantasy Sports and More and ChatGPT. Growing Daniel came in with an absolutely brutal ratio.
What'd he say?
He quoted Zuck's announcement with a screenshot of the exchange that Zuck had with, with somebody during the early days of Facebook where he said, yeah, so if you ever need info about anyone at Harvard, just ask. I have over 4,000 emails, pictures, addresses, and student numbers. What? How'd you manage that one? People just submitted it. I don't know why they quote unquote trust me, dumb Fs. Anyway, growing Daniel never forgets. Obviously, Zuck has grown up a lot since then.
Who punched him in the nose? That's the question Ryan Peterson is asking. Let me find the— you sent me the image.
Is this true? Yeah. So here's the thing. His nose is starting to look like This guy, Merab, who's a UFC champion. Merab has one of the most busted up noses in the UFC, and Merab was the UFC fighter that Zuck was training with on that deck. Pull up this picture of Merab and you can see their noses are starting to look quite similar.
That's a really good sign.
Look at this. Zoom in there. Zoom in there. He's pushing. Look, their noses. Zuck was like, give me one of them right now. Give me a nose like that right now. I like it. This tells me that Zuck is going way harder in training than he lets on in the video.
Totally, totally.
Which I, which I love to see. He's like, he's ready for that Elon fight. Yeah. He's like, there's a chance I might catch Elon on a good day. He opts in. Yeah. I got to be ready. All right. Let's talk about doom. Doom.
An Anthropic researcher is quitting the artificial intelligence industry. Whoa. He didn't just quit the company, quit the industry over fears that the lab and its competitors are racing to build systems that could spiral out of control and destroy humanity. This was not received well. A bunch of back and forth with another researcher chiming in saying that they, that they have a P-doom of 10%, which is something that's come up years ago and we kind of went back and forth on. This all started with Jacob Coxon. Who said, I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last 3 years doing pre-training research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives. He is not happy with where things go, and it got 100 million views and 600,000 likes. It's going straight on a Bernie Sanders billboard for sure. I worked on an actual thermonuclear weapons project, Martin Casado from a16z says, and the dissonance was less bizarre. And so he's comparing it to what it was like working on very scary technology, very different than what's going on today. And Evan Hubinger, who works on alignment science at Anthropic, previously MIRI, OpenAI, Google, Ripple, he says, Jacob is correct here. We really do earnestly believe AI could kill all humans. I personally think it's above 10% within the next decade. I believe Anthropic is trying its best, but we do not yet have a plan to solve alignment for superintelligence and are clearly not on track to. So everyone's sort of pushing for a slowdown now, but then you go into the regulatory capture thing. I've been seeing—
what? Jess Buckingham says, bro got that pip.
Yeah, a lot of people are like, are you giving back your equity? Blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. Yeah. Odd. Lots of people were just going back and forth on everything. Ryan Peterson sees it as a bull case. He says, I need to buy more stock in this company. I've never seen such a commitment to making money regardless of the consequences. Yeah, it is—
DARE says, if you publicly assign a greater than 10% probability to human extinction within a decade, you owe people a clear explanation of how you reach that number, plus what would change your mind.
Yes. Yes, so yeah, a lot of people were upset that this felt like a vibe prediction, very like unresearched. And he did link, Evan did link to the Anthropic risk report, which you can read in full. They have a reasonable scaling policy and they're talking about pacing the frontier, collaborating with other labs. I'm oddly optimistic that this will happen. Obviously, you know, there's the Sam and Dario can't even hold hands on stage. that India conference. But AI has made strange bedfellows out of people. Like, if you had said, oh yeah, in 6 months, Elon Musk, the guy who's calling Anthropic misanthropic, will be doing a deal and bring in Sholto to watch rockets take off at Starbase, I would've been like, no way. No way can Elon Musk and Dario become friends. It's like that just seems like impossible. But the funniest outcome is the most likely, to quote Elon again.
Believing in your whole heart that things are that serious and then just rage quitting and not leaning in and trying. Like, do you really think that the rage quit method is—
I don't know. I mean, some of these organizations are really big. And if you're at a certain level, it can be very hard to actually get things done in a large organization. It's yeah, it's weird, weird time. Leave us five stars on Apple Podcasts and Spotify. Sign up for our newsletter at tbpn.com, and we will see you tomorrow at 11 a.m. Pacific sharp. That will be Thursday.
Hundred. It will be 105 days until.
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