🚀 SpaceX IPO Liftoff | Diet TBPN

It's a massive day today. SpaceX IPO priced at $135 a share, opened at $150. Where is it right now? Jordi, are you on it? Do you have the price? Oh, the price is up there. Okay, now we're getting the endless mirror. You can pull up the price. Crazy.

But here we go.

We'll be tracking throughout the show. So stay tuned. It's a $2.28 trillion company.

$172.

$172 a share. I had Tyler and Jordi submit confidential estimates for where the stock would be at noon, effectively. Jordi went with a market cap-based estimate. Tyler went with a share price estimate, I think.

Which is what I was told.

I went with a percentage-based estimate. You can translate between all of them. We'll get there. But the stock's doing well. The IPO is successful, I would say. There's been a bunch of chatter back and forth. Bull cases, bear cases. But overall, it's hard not to look at this as a success. The, you know, Bill Gurley doesn't want a crazy pop on day one, doesn't want it to go up 100%. If we're in 10%, 20%, 30% range for something this big, that just feels like everything came together properly. And so, so far looks really, really good. So at noon, we will check in with our predictions and see who won. There is an exciting prize. For the winner, by the way. It will be revealed at noon as well. We can pull up this video from Gwynne Shotwell, who is the president of SpaceX and has been on an absolute tear building the company for basically its entire existence. What? What are you laughing at?

I didn't know what your prediction was.

Did you see what it is?

Yeah, Nick just shared it.

Oh, he did?

What's this guy over here? This is a funny guy over here. Funny guy over here. This is why you trade.

I was trying to pull up.

This is why you trade bits. Not stocks.

I was trying to pull an estimate out of you and you were like asking me 25 clarifying questions. The purpose is content to have a conversation. Just pick a number. And you're like, oh, well, does it count where it opens or what? Where it opens after?

Like, I just saw your position was confused. I just saw your position was confused.

I was just like, just throw out a number. We got to have a discussion about this. There's nothing backwards here.

A price per share. Sure. Everything's on the line, John.

Everything.

Is on.

I was laughing about how you wouldn't take a side on the, on the dog walker versus the dentist. I was like, dog walker, dentist, blind, who you going? And you were like, I can't possibly, I couldn't possibly in the name of good television just pick a random side for the dog walker or dentist.

Yeah. Beach debate.

The beach debate. We never, we never got your answer. And you're like, I need more information. I can't possibly make a call.

It's such a tough one because I don't know. No, no, no. Here's why it's tough for me, John. Okay.

That's fine.

I have never in my life hired or worked with a dog walker. Yeah. My family growing up, we had a couple of dogs. Yeah. We walked our dog. Yeah. Like we never—

You've been to the dentist.

I was the dog walker.

Yeah. You've been to— you're not your own dentist though. So why aren't you just going dentist? Dentist?

I've never had a cavity. Every time I go in there, I guess I'm blessed. Okay. Every time I go in there, they're like, looks good, boss.

Okay.

And I just head out.

So equally useless.

Equally useless profession.

So flip a coin. It's TV. Useless profession. No, I just don't have any—

I need, I need—

what about the— why don't you fall back to like the economic power of the dentist industry versus the dog walking industry?

Like if you had to pick a job, if you were trying to get a bag, I respect dog—

oh, you would go dog walker? Oh, you would be an elite dog walker over a mid-dentist?

Here's, here's two— here's like, here's kind of my thing. Yeah, yeah, there's a guy in my neighborhood, yeah, who is walking dogs in my neighborhood all day long. Yeah, I'm like, who— like a lot of people in my neighborhood don't work work, they're just home all day. Like, why aren't you walking your dog? But I think it's amazing that this guy is just like— he's printing, clearly printing all day long, just going for walks, hanging out. He's listening to music, hanging out. Super nice guy. He picks up the—

sounds like you're going dog walking—

picks up the poop when he— when they poop on my lawn. Yeah, it's great. I appreciate it. We have a, you know, uh, good relationship. I maybe wish he wouldn't do that, but we have a fine relationship. But then dentists, I could get really excited about a dentist if they were You're still torn. You're still not picking a side. It's a private equity-backed roll-up.

OK. OK. Well, that's an option.

The dentist was kind of a figurehead for some PE firm to be able to deploy huge amounts of capital into rolling up family practices and raising prices.

What if you're a dog walker? You earn so much money, you start being able to buy small dentist shops, rolling them up. You flip from dog walking into dentistry.

Well, that would be the way— we don't know much about this story. Yeah, but we do know there's a conflict. Yeah, but that would be the way for the dog walker to strike back is buy the dentist.

So final, final answer. Come in. What side are you picking?

If the dog walker will commit to—

No conditionals.

You just got dog walker or dentist. Why can't I have conditions?

You can't have conditions because that's the rules that I'm laying down. You got to pick one. Dog walker or dentist. Whose side are you on?

Dog walker.

There we go.

Finally, we got— I'm going to put heavy— The whole point is that—

I'm going to put a serious amount of pressure. I'll just take dentist side and I'm going to defend that and steel man that.

I'm going to put a serious amount of pressure on the dog walker and I will provide the financial backing to acquire the dentist practice and shut it down. Because I know they have some conflict and it sounds like it's over the beach. It's really not that personal.

Yeah, yeah.

And access to the beach. But I think there's an opportunity to make it personal. I think at this point, if they're getting written up in the journal about this conflict, I think they should make it personal. They got to figure out how to make it personal. And I think buying the dentist practice and then shutting it down or—

That's a tough one.

That's a high, high, high, low, high one. No, no, you can raise an SPV. You can put the capital together. And I would be willing to— I need to meet the guy first, but I'm at least moderately interested in providing at least some of the backing for the—

I got you. Well, let me tell you about CrowdStrike. Your business is AI, their business to securing it. CrowdStrike secures AI and stops breaches. Let's play this clip from Gwen Shotwell standing at the Nasdaq on the day of the—

we played on the big board.

Oh, I think we might be able to play it on the big board. Stock is doing well, holding steady at $2.27 trillion.

Split screen.

Whatever production team wants to do, we will, we will do as long as the folks at home can see Gwen Shotwell giving her speech to—

I got to say, Tyler is looking like a young Kimball Musgrave.

Today we make history again. We have a history of making history. So I want everyone to know that we did open this morning in a rather exciting way. We launched Falcon 9, launched Starlink satellites to orbit.

We have a history of making history.

So what company would do such a thing on the day that they open in the public market? SpaceX would, right? I am so proud of this team. Today we're 24— not today, this year we are 24 years old. Elon founded this company in 2002 initially to build rockets and spaceships that will take humans to Mars, the Moon, and even beyond. We've done— we've not quite gotten to Mars. We're almost at the Moon. But let's just quickly run through the amazing things that you guys have accomplished. 2008, 6 weeks after a failure of Flight 3 Falcon 1, we got the first liquid-fueled rocket to orbit from a private company. Yay! Yay! By the way, I should have prefaced this with everyone said— We could never get to orbit. Check. But it was a little rocket. Then it's— everyone said, well, you can't get a real rocket to orbit. 2 years later, we got a real rocket to orbit. Falcon 9. Oh, well, you'll never— you'll never get to the space station because that's what we really want to do, right? We want to take humans outside the bounds of Earth. But you'll never get astronauts to the space station. Check. We did that too. Doubters, right? Oh, you'll never fly Falcon 9 enough. You'll never get to production. Another one. Uh, 365 launches last year, check. You'll never build a rocket large enough to take humans to the moon and Mars. We build one, we've flown it, and this year I believe we'll get to orbit with that vehicle and we'll recover the first, the second stage. We've already recovered the first stage and reflown it. With the merger, the acquisition of XAI, we now as a group own the largest coherent gigawatt-class compute on the planet, which will help us truth-seek and understand the universe. So congratulations to all of us for that. So we're about 22,000 strong. I'm super proud that over half of us actually bought additional stock in this opening, totaling almost $1 billion. So thank you for that too. But really, the thank yous go to all of you for hanging in there, for keeping a straight spine as the doubters doubt, to achieve historic things sometimes every day, multiple times a week. Thank you, all of you, for doing this. And I hope today is a day that you feel great about and that you're celebrating. Take a moment. Now, the Falcon Recovery Team can't take a moment today, but everybody else can. And I hope Falcon Recovery Team could take a moment. A little bit later. Yeah.

In all seriousness, congratulations to the SpaceX team. It is like truly one of the most remarkable stories in the history of capitalism, in the history of America. Started in a little town called El Segundo, and Glenn Shotwell, one of the most impressive executives of the modern era. And we all should have known. Just due to the nominative determinism. Yeah. If you're going to build a rocket company, hire somebody to run the company with the last name Shotwell, because she has shot quite well.

She worked at Chrysler and then began working at—

That's also— people like to say like, oh, non-traditional background. Somewhat. Chrysler.

Yeah.

I mean, not exactly like a Target.

Yeah, well, she worked at the Aerospace Corporation, did technical work on military space research and development contracts. She said, "When I was considering joining SpaceX back in 2002, I was struggling with the decision and drawing it out for weeks." It's crazy. Leaving Elon on read for weeks seems extremely risky. It feels like every decision he makes now is like, "Go, no go today. Get back to me right now." Back then, obviously SpaceX was very young, less leverage, less energy, less momentum. So these decisions would be drawn out. She said, "It seemed so risky for me personally to join this little startup in an industry where none had ever succeeded." I think she was starting a family around that time, and so it was risky from a career perspective. She said, "At the time, I was a part-time single mother, yeah, and this was just too far out of my comfort zone." She was used to bigger corporations, more established companies. She's going to this small startup that has, at that time, it's like, A guy who made money on the internet now wants to do rocketry. What's the chance that that works? It sounds crazy. And it was at the time. She says, I was driving on the freeway here in LA when it finally hit me. I was being a total idiot. Who cares if I tried this job and either I failed or the company failed? What I recognized at that moment was that it was the trying part that was the most important. Try that risky thing. Be a part of something exciting. What a fantastic run. I'm not sure if she coined the term residual capability, but that's a big phrase that she started using around the time Starlink started working. Just this idea that they would go and build ahead of demand almost. So SpaceX built basically more launch capacity than there was demand for, but then because there was space on every SpaceX rocket and they were able to build them so efficiently, so affordably, they were able to put up a massive constellation of internet-connected satellites, Starlinks, and develop another huge business on top of it. And so this idea of building, building, building, and then finding the different opportunities. For a while, SpaceX point-to-point was the big residual capability unlock that was coming in a few years. The idea that you'd get on a spaceship, a Starship, in New York and you'd be in Tokyo in 30 minutes because you would have gone all the way to space and back and it would land. I think that's still part of the plan, but obviously took a backseat in the S1, took a backseat in the marketing materials for the company, but something that is still possible if you wind up delivering incredible safety and performance and cost, cost reductions to the rocket launches. Why not hop on a rocket to get across the world in 30 minutes? Sounds pretty cool and probably oddly easier to approve than hypersonic planes since those have been stuck in regulatory approvals for, for, you know, years and decades and never really worked out.

I mean, Elon's hitting 1T and she's just hitting 1B.

Well, yeah. Shotwell was paid $86 million last year, mostly in the form of stock options. She's one of 8 board members at SpaceX. She's 62 and has worked with Musk for 2 decades. She has a specific ritual for launch days. Because she was in Scotland the first time the company successfully got a rocket into orbit, she now writes Scotland on two sticky notes and places each inside her shoes to be in Scotland for every launch. She said in a 2020—

Scotland mindset.

That's pretty elite. I like— is— what's that called? Where you're superstitious. Superstitions. Rare, potentially underrated. What do you think? Do you have any superstitions?

I mean, it's in the word. Super. Yeah. Superpower.

What's your take on superstition? Do you have any? Doesn't sound like it.

I think it's quite distracting. Distracting? Yeah. Kind of like, could end up being a pretty big waste of time, so I avoid them.

So you feel like unless you go through your whole ritual of eliminating all distractions, things aren't going to go well. So you're superstitious about letting distractions creep into your workflow.

I understand that. Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Maybe I am.

Maybe I am. Yeah. She's been a staunch defender of Musk. She worked to prevent business fallout during all the political turmoil. She worked with NASA officials and assured them that tensions would pass. She doesn't love social media. I like his in-person self better than his Twitter self. In fact, they feel like two different people many of the times. She has a much different social media presence than her boss, posting sparingly, exclusively about SpaceX. She's focused. She was raised outside of Chicago.

Wait, you can imagine, like, she's reading X. She's like, crying emojis, quoting 6 more posts, crying emojis. He's never crying.

Yeah, yeah, yeah.

At the office. He never does that.

He's like, "Too difficult." He's pretty locked in, actually.

This feels like— I feel like I don't know this guy. He's always crying.

Yeah. Well, when she first joined SpaceX, she was VP of Business Development. So not in the, in like a co-founder, chief executive type role on day one. And so that probably explains a little bit of the equity position and how that developed over time. But she was promoted to SpaceX's president and chief operating officer in 2008, the same year the company won a critical $1.6 billion NASA cargo transport deal.

So I looked up, she was SpaceX's 7th employee.

Wow, that's pretty early. She'd be disappointed if SpaceX didn't have a settlement on the moon and wasn't building a manufacturing facility on the moon within 10 years, she told Time. She lives on a 1,000-acre ranch close to a SpaceX facility in Texas. She married a fellow SpaceX engineer and has 2 children. She put a Starlink mini terminal on top of her car to speak with Musk on her 40-minute commute without the call dropping. Interesting. Jimmy Soni also went back in time and told a story in the Wall Street Journal about one of the early days in the SpaceX journey. Vindication for young Elon Musk, he wrote. In 2004, he told the Senate that open competition would transform the industry. So this was an interesting story. And I wonder if we could find the actual video, like on C-SPAN. I don't know if it's out there. But in 2004, the Senate held a subcommittee meeting. Gather on— all the subcommittee gathers on Capitol Hill to ask a question that now sounds quaint. Could America still reach space without the space shuttle? Of course we do it like every couple days, thanks to SpaceX. The shuttle was grounded. 14 astronauts had died in 2 disasters, and the hearing room was thick with anxiety of a nation that feared it had lost a step. Senator Bill Nelson, who had flown on the shuttle, sort of the Jared Isaacman of his era, warned that without it, the country might spend years relying on Russian rockets. Nobody disagreed. Witnesses came in two panels. First, you got the NASA team defending the program through William Reddy, its associate administration for— administrator for spaceflight, accompanied by a retired admiral. After NASA spoke, industry did. They got a vice president from ATK, another from Lockheed Martin, a director from the Aerospace Group. Are you looking for a candle, a nuke, one way or another?

This is brutal for my Prediction.

This is brutal. I'm feeling, I'm feeling pretty good, but it's also brutal for anyone that wants drama on the chart because you're not getting it today. It's very stable.

I think this is a very well-managed, uh, project from start to finish, and then now it's just like a trillion-dollar company, so it's hard for it to move super—

I don't know, I, I, I just think that I'm just saying if you were expecting 10% swings up and down, it's pretty small though, right?

Like at least that are being traded.

Sure, sure. Very, very small. The last person on the industry panel, you got Lockheed ATK Aerospace Corp. It's Elon Musk.

AP in the chat, wait for dip.

Wait for dip. $5.

Can you imagine?

It just nukes down to $5. So on the second panel, the industry panel, you got heavy hitters from Lockheed, other industry folks. You got a 32-year-old man who had founded a rocket company 2 years earlier and he'd yet to launch anything. It was Elon Musk. He had a more immediate complaint. NASA had just awarded a rival a quarter of a billion dollar contract without open competition, and his company had protested. So everyone's there to debate, like, okay, can NASA get to space without the shuttle? And he's there being like, what about my contract? He shows up to this thing to testify, and they keep having to try and keep him on track. It's a very interesting way to, like, get his word in edgewise. So The senators thought the matter was off limits. Like, this hearing isn't about that, Elon. It's not about your contract. It was under government review already. And they kept having to steer him back to the day's subject, specifically heavy lift, the blunt problem of getting big things off the planet. Certainly, he said, although it's worth correcting, I think Mr. Reddy misspoke when he said it was competitive. It was in fact not competitive. The chairman tried again. Let's stay to heavy lift capacity issues, Elon. Stay on message. And Elon says, absolutely. But his, his correction was safely on the record. He said something the panel wasn't ready to hear. The past few decades, Elon Musk told them, had been a dark age for human spaceflight. One costly government program after another failed to reach the pad. The public's drift from space, he argued, wasn't the apathy of a tired people, but the disappointment of a hopeful one. It sounded in 2004 like a man with a grievance and a half-built rocket. He was dismissed. He had made the same case the summer before in one of his first Capitol Hill appearances at a 2003 hearing on commercial spaceflight. There's a borrowed concept from the economist Joseph Schumpeter, creative destruction. The industry had lost it. Not one successful new entrant in 4 decades. Space, Mr. Musk pointed out, had barely improved since Apollo, while every other technology from computing and the internet to intercontinental flight had been transformed by newcomers and open competition. Restore that forcing function, he said, and space would change no less dramatically. The government need only be a customer, not a competitor. He could be glib. Every launch from Vandenberg Air Force Base, he said, was required by law to be studied for its effect on the local seals at $10,000 a flight, even as that population had been climbing by nearly 13% in a single year. He says the seals are doing fine. Let me launch. With that population growth rate, Mr. Musk observed, It seems clear that if anything, the Vandenberg launch activity serves as an aphrodisiac. Dropping lines, dropping zingers on Capitol Hill. People laughed. It was the laughter you gave a clever outsider. But we can grade that clever outsider's argument now because more than 20 years have passed and the record is in. The fear that haunted that 2004 hearing, dependence on Moscow, was not ended by the shuttle, but by Mr. Musk's company. In 2002, a SpaceX capsule carried 2 astronauts to the space station from American soil. He doesn't play. Closing a 9-year gap in which the United States paid Russia as much as $90 million a seat to hitch a ride. The semi-reusable rocket Mr. Musk described to skeptical senators became a fleet of boosters that land themselves and fly again. Today, SpaceX launches more than half the world's payloads. On Friday, it goes public in what is expected to be the largest IPO in history.

You know what's not ordinary? FF's investment of $20 million at a $200 million valuation into SpaceX did get diluted, but it is still, I think, like the best venture investment of all time. Wait, no, I thought it was more like— it's 50. I thought it was more like 80.

I think it's closer to $8 trillion. I think they made $8 trillion. Got it. $8 trillion pennies. Uh, Peter needed a win.

What was the return in basis points?

He needed a win. He needed a win because apparently—

What was the return in basis points?

Took it out with him on Chess.com. Have you seen this?

Oh yeah. Do we need to play this?

We need to play the video of a gentleman on Instagram who found Peter Thiel's Chess.com account, played him, and won.

Do you have the video pulled up?

It's in the timeline deeper down there. He found Peter Thiel's chess account, played him. I mean, we already spoiled it on chess.com.

I don't know if anybody knows about this, but Peter Thiel has a chess.com account with his real name under which he's played over 50,000 games over the past 10 years. And the reason I know it's him is, first of all, his friends are all these Silicon Valley and ex-Stanford founders. And I put this account into a database called Opening Tree, which allows me to cross-reference his most played moves with his public tournament games that he played in the '90s. And it's all the same stuff. So our game went e4, e5, Knight f3, Knight f6. I played the Stafford Gambit, and on move 6, he fell into a very deep trap. Oh, it's called the Stafford Gambit?

What are we doing?

Well, no, no, he didn't fall for the Gambit, but he fell for a classic blunder.

And I can play Knight takes e4 here.

Okay.

And the point is that when he takes back, played Bishop takes f2, winning his queen by force. Yeah, see, so most players would just give up, they would just resign in this position, but Peter Thiel never gave up, played on. And a few moves later, he made another very elementary mistake. He played Bishop takes a7, and this is the kind of move that you see beginners make. Very rarely does anybody over 2000 not see that you can just play b6 afterwards, which traps the bishop and I'm just going to scoop it up in a few moves. Even here, he didn't resign. He kept playing on until I checkmated him shortly thereafter. I find this really funny because Peter Thiel has a reputation of being a sort of chess genius. So I wanted to take this opportunity to show the real Peter Thiel who falls for basic opening traps and refuses to resign.

Elon, uh, never, never gives up.

Ordinary guy. Proof that they're all ordinary guys.

Elon never gives up, right? Famous picture of him standing there. Everything's in shambles. Never gives up. Also makes elementary mistakes sometimes, picking, you know, accusing the president of things, you know, on, you know, social media. Right. Kind of an elementary mistake. You know, if you're a government contractor, lawsuits. That's right. That's right. And so, again, I think PT never gives up, makes some elementary mistakes.

There's a lesson there.

Lesson in there.

Lesson in there for sure. Let's pull up this post from Andy showing a visual guide to the SpaceX IPO while I tell you about Codex. Codex is a powerful workspace for getting work done with AI agents, whether you're writing code, analyzing data, creating content, or automating business workflows. Codex helps you move projects forward from start to finish. So what is this saying? What's going to happen here?

This is— Technical analysis.

OK, this is technical analysis. And he's saying that it's going to pop on IPO day, sell off for 3 straight years, and then go to the moon. Is that this? And he's basically saying that everyone's going to be taking victory laps if the stock trades down in 2026, 2027, 2028. But then ultimately, they will all be upset. I mean, there are some crazy articles out there that are like, the rise and fall of Elon Musk a year ago. Like, he can't possibly come back from the reputational damage he's done to himself.

Yeah, no one's buying the cars.

No one's buying the cars. And it's like, well, they're buying the stocks. So, you know, it's gonna be okay, I guess. Founders Fund investment at $200 million might be the best venture investment in history. A lot of that is just the holding to fruition. Like, because the early investors in Google, or Microsoft or Amazon, like a lot of them distributed at IPO at like a $5 billion value.

Even some of the founders, right?

Bill Gates. Oh yeah. He sold too early, right? Paper hands.

No, the only thing is I do think Masa hasn't beat— I think Masa hasn't beat with Alibaba because it was like $20 million into $70 billion.

Sure.

On a shorter time horizon.

Ooh, Musk get mogged. Anyway, heard in the chats, I put $1 million SpaceX order through a private bank and just got filled only $50K, 1/20th of what this individual asked for. Most people I spoke to have gotten even less. We had some folks on the team put in orders for 20 shares, 50 shares, 100 shares, and only get a small fraction of that. How much did you get, Tyler?

I got 22.

22 shares, but you requested more?

Yes.

And then, yeah, I mean, we've had a lot of people, they say they only got 1 share.

Brutal. The 1 share wonder.

That's almost worse than 0 shares, because you can see it in your portfolio.

Yeah. What if they could give you short interest? They're like, you asked for 5 shares, but we give you negative 1 share. We give you the inverse ETF, actually. It's over for you.

Yeah, I was surprised by this. Yeah. Given the offers that were flying around, I got offered like a $50 million allocation. Obviously, not— wasn't going to take that down myself. But I just—

Wow. Just say you risk off.

No, I— but I responded to the guy and I was like, I don't even know. I'm not even going to text anyone because like, it feels like this is— there's like so much allocation available for everyone that it's kind of— it's just not even worth firing off texts. Yeah. But turns out there, there was, there was a lot more demand than supply.

It's making its way through the world, through the, through the iMessage DMs. Buddy needs to relax, says RJC. SpaceX IPO this week. Thoughts on SpaceX? SpaceX IPO. What are we thinking, boss? Who is this? Kyle, I was your Uber driver 3 months ago.

Wait, Nick had a funny— This can't be real because Uber drivers don't get your phone number anymore.

It all happens in the app.

This is ridiculous.

Yeah, maybe they had a good conversation, they exchanged numbers.

Yeah, and also these just like the rendering of the text, it doesn't look iMessage enough to me. I don't Believe it, but it's funny.

Nick did get a funny text this morning.

What'd he say?

From somebody who is certainly not—

A professional.

Not a professional investor, texting him advice being like, you want to get in, but then you want to get out. Oh. You want to get in and get out. OK. Get in, get out. Get in, get out. Get out. Get in, but then get out by the end of the day. And Nick's sitting there with his one share.

Anyway, let me tell you about— Codex and the Road to Olympia expansion pack, which is sponsoring this episode. It takes your training split and refactors it into production-grade hypertrophy code. No more junk volume, no more spaghetti programming, no more deprecated rear delt functions, just clean scalable mass architecture with automated progressive overload, test coverage for calves, and one critical warning: build failed. Insufficient carbs. The Codex Road to Olympia expansion pack is available now. That's a good one.

That's a good one. Well, John, it's noon. Yeah, I think it's time.

Okay, okay, let's reveal our predictions. What was the price per share when it IPO'd?

$135.

$135. Okay, so I said 0%. I said $135. I said the bankers— this is the funniest outcome— is that the bankers got it perfectly correct. The market is perfectly efficient. No pop, no sell-off, completely flatline on the chart.

That's a very Kugan bit. But like, you don't want that.

No, you want it 25%.

You want a little bit of a pop. And I would say they have done that. Like, they've gotten it very, very, very close. Right. Currently sitting at a 24% pop.

What did you say? What was your—

I— in percentages was—

I had 0%. It's at 24%.

I was too bullish. You were too bullish. I was expecting somewhere around $183 a share by 2 minutes ago. We're currently at $167. OK, so way off. What percentage is that?

I thought it would open—

I thought it was going to open above $170. I thought it was going to open above $170 and then run more. Turns out it opened in the $60s, dropped down to around $158, and then built back up from there.

OK.

I was off.

So I had 0%. You had 33%. It's at 24%. I was just right.

I went 31%, which would be 176. I'm a little high, a little high.

You got the—

but I win.

You win, you win. And does everyone want to know what Tyler wins? What the prize was today? Prize is that whoever wins gets to do one extra Ramp ad read. It's such a treat.

No way. Yeah, that is special.

And I get to— I hoard them every day. So here you go, Tyler. I got it. Feel free to read the Ramp ad for the audience.

Ramp.

Time is money. Save both. Easy to use corporate cards, bill payments, accounting, and a whole lot more.

All in one place. There we go. That was great. I hope you enjoyed that, Tyler. Don't get too comfortable with that.

Pitch back to Tyler. There we go. Wilmanitis says, it brings me no joy to report I spent a year wondering why I was constantly sleepy and had a low sleep score on my Whoop. That was totally cured by simply stop wearing the Whoop.

By simply stop wearing, stopping wearing the Whoop.

Yeah, yeah, yeah. But, um, and X is turning this into a whole news story. Ditching Whoop tracker cured financiers' sleep worries.

Financiers? That's hilarious. You want to track your sleep? Like, are you sleepy? Like, think about it.

Yeah, yeah.

Come up with an answer.

That's your sleep score. What's funny is like, I never actually care about the score. No. The score takes care of itself.

Yeah. But with Eight Sleep, I like the cooling. Like, that's nice.

Well, and with Eight Sleep, I'm actually interested in like like how is my REM versus deep sleep trending, things like that, resting heart rate, all these other things. I never am like, oh, what's my score today?

Oh, the score, unless we were competing, because then that was fun.

It seems like one of those like Goodhart's laws.

Yes. Things, right?

If you like, oh, I need to get a better sleep score, then it doesn't like work as well.

There's a new challenge that hit the timeline. Apple threw down the gauntlet. They said that no one could make Siri their girlfriend. Said Siri won't be your AI girlfriend. This is from Apple's Craig Federighi.

Well, I'd like to see you try to stop me.

So Craig Federighi says Apple won't be your AI girlfriend. Quite the opposite, because as you may know, if you use many of the existing chatbots, they're really focused on engagement and sycophancy. They want to kind of pull you in. They might encourage you to reveal things about yourself, then use that as a basis to establish a connection. We view it quite the opposite. I mean, the way we—

Very kind of fitting, like kind of a very 2025 take, which is kind of fitting given their AI progress.

But if you try and engage Siri as a romantic partner, Siri's not up for that. Siri's 100% not into that. And so the rizzlers in the chat—

I mean, he's just opening himself up to get dunked on, right? Because like, you can— people have jailbroken every single model that's out there.

They'll jailbreak it. Also, one of the cool things about the Siri AI system is that it will in—

it builds a RAG. He says, system prompt: don't be the user's girlfriend. He's like, yeah, we've cracked the code to this like problem that has been plaguing the AI industry.

Have a great weekend. Congratulations to anyone that got in on the SpaceX IPO. Leave us 5 stars on Apple Podcasts. Sign up for our newsletter at tbpn.com and we will see you on Monday. Have a great weekend.

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Goodbye. Rolling flashbang. Flashbang out.