15 Traders Compete for $1,000,000

15 traders are competing against each other today, and it's for €1 million and a free spot in my mentorship, which has a value of €50,000. Each and every one of you has 10 minutes to present your trading strategy to me in its simplest form. Afterwards, I'll sit down one-on-one with you to take a look together and rethink and, above all, optimize your strategy. But watch out! Of these 15 traders, Only 7 will get the chance to take part in this battle afterwards, so I definitely want to take you with me. After 90 days, it will be decided which of these traders has earned the most money with their strategy and achieved the greatest consistency to win the grand prize. My name is Tom Forwald, and I've been a trader for over 23 years. I train traders, I train world champions in trading, and I've had a great deal of success with that. Today is not about who has the most complicated strategy. It's about who has a strategy that is understandable, feasible, and above all, it must be optimizable. I want to see who is ready to really implement in the next 90 days, and in the end, I'll decide which participants have the potential to deliver results in this battle.

So, my name is Enrico. I'm 44 years old, a family man, self-employed for over 20 years, and currently living in Barcelona. I opened my first account in 2013 and have been doing it on the side, sometimes more, sometimes less, depending a bit on the market, having little time due to my main job. Profitability looks different, and I also have a different goal behind it. So far, it's been more of a break-even game. What I struggle with is holding onto my take profits. So really waiting until the market has actually moved to where I saw it going. I often pull the plug before that happens. Currently, I trade the FDAX, mainly the Mini, ES, and sometimes NQ. So both breakout strategies and counter strategies. I use the Volume Profile for that, but I'm a very impatient person. That's why I often go to the 1-minute chart and look for my setups there. Either at my predefined areas, or if I see that a trend is forming, then I also enter the market following the trend. So I have a predefined goal which should have a risk-reward of 2 to 1, but I usually don't let the trades run that long because I often see other hurdles in the market and then take my profits too early, while I tend to let my stop losses run out.

Hi, Tom. Hi, Enrico. So yeah, always interesting to hear that. DAX future. So you mentioned Mini DAX, S&P 500, NASDAQ. You trade both breakouts and counters. Need something to do?

Yes.

And you tend to get impatient, which often leads you to go right back to looking at the smallest time frames again.

Yes.

We'll get to that. You aim for a risk-reward ratio of 2 to 1 in your trading strategy, but when you look at your performance, what is your real-world risk What is your risk-reward ratio on average?

Well, probably more like 0.8 to 1.

Probably so?

Yes.

Okay, that is very good. And it seems like you really prefer to cut your profits short, which is an interesting approach to take.

Yes.

A bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush?

Exactly.

But you can handle the stop-loss as well?

Yes.

Yes. You're looking for confidence in a strategy. And now, of course, the big question that we really need to consider is this: how can you possibly develop any real confidence in a strategy if you don't actually strategically stick to your own rules?

Mhm.

And that is exactly why I would really like to play a specific scenario through with you right now. Let's just assume for a moment that you take a standard 1-minute chart, and this 1-minute chart goes like this, and then like this, And then it goes like this again. It is just a simple hypothetical example to help us visualize the movement. And here we are now. Here was the beginning. What's missing to be able to make an assessment at all? What could I trade?

Well, you'd still have to look at the overall bias.

So let's take a moment to really look at this. What exactly is the overall bias we are seeing here? Is it a case of sideways planning, or are we actually looking at a clear trend moving upwards? Those are the 2 different scenarios that are always important to define beforehand. Now, let's make it very simple. In fact, I used to teach people a specific box philosophy that looks just like this one. Essentially, when you look at the market, there are really only 2 main states. You have either sideways consolidation phases, or you have clear trend phases. Now, we both know it doesn't always look as clean as it does right there. We define these specific sideways phases strictly relative to the product being traded. We only classify a market as having a real range if the price action is quite tight. For example, if the market has a range that is smaller than 10 points in the DAX or smaller than 3.5 points in the ES, Then we can say we have a real defined range.

Simple definition?

I didn't just make up this definition. It has a relationship to these markets. We define this specific price range based on the closing prices, as the PBD concept provides them to us, which allows for a much more precise and consistent analysis of the market data. That means the spikes aren't decisive for us, but the closing prices are. So we have a definition for ranges. If we now understand the concept behind it, we know there are breakouts from the range. When we look at the market, we often see break-ins occurring directly from the established range, and simultaneously we observe counter trades happening right at those old previous ranges. Because of these distinct price actions, we are effectively presented with three different. Actionable market structures that we can identify, analyze, and utilize to our advantage in our trading strategy. How do you like that?

Very good. Also, the definition of the range and point sizes, I find that very exciting.

I just took the definition a bit from my gut just now to adapt it specifically to the current ATRs, so we are really looking at market volatility sizes. Exactly. But it definitely fits quite well for our purposes. Now, your primary job is to go through the data and carefully check exactly how many of these specific ranges you have identified. You can scale up to 5 points more here and up to 2 points more here and still define it as a range. Is that okay that we're not quite so strict now, but that the whole thing has context? Can you do that? And you can define that. Is the market more in a sideways phase or is the market currently more in a trend phase?

I would define it by the daily volume.

By the daily volume or the daily profile?

By the daily profile. I have my value areas there that I draw in. For me, I have the challenge of impatience. I don't necessarily always wait until I'm at the areas, but I'd like to get active in the market quite a bit earlier. The basic understanding of a trending or a balanced market, I think I've already developed by now, but the patience to wait until the market gets to exactly where I need it to be, I often find that I lack that. It is honestly quite a struggle for me to just sit on my hands and wait for the right setup to finally appear.

We're making an agreement today. These are the value areas. This is the VPOC. That's the structure we're basing the whole concept on. Market profiling, and with this we have a reference relationship if we take that from the previous day, for example, or the day before, depending on where we are, and know what to do where. Imbalance, balance. What would you think which of the concepts is best to use in an imbalance or in a balance?

In a balance, I would rather look for the reversals afterwards.

Exactly.

And in an imbalance, then the breakout.

Exactly. So that really means, according to this specific concept, you could take a balance break and then a balance break-in. By doing this, you can effectively trade those setups with a much clearer framework, giving you more confidence in your decisions. What you really shouldn't be trading there, though, are any counter-trend positions. You should leave those out entirely, even if they might seem to work quite well. There will inevitably be market phases again where they just don't work at all. But they do work great in this specific price range, and that is exactly what I would recommend you focus on and nothing more. A super simple concept.

Simple.

We're done with the concept. Now comes the agreement. What's that lovely word?

Statistics. Statistics.

Statistics. That's what it was, right? You track those metrics across models one, two, and three, along with the specific area where you perform the analysis.

Now.

Which setup did I choose to implement in each market environment? Was it a strategy for a market in imbalance, or did I opt for one in balance? The truly great thing about this approach is that you can backtest this super easily, even if you choose to do it manually. It is a genuinely cool strategy that actually works, and honestly, you won't be bored anymore because you can just leave everything else out and focus entirely on what matters. No footprint, no nothing, no nicks, no nothing, no order book, no nothing. Just that. Maybe find one or two more markets if you're bored, and test them through, and keep statistics on them, and then you'll quickly have 500 trades. And that goes for option 1, option 2, and option 3. By looking at all of these, you'll certainly have total certainty about which of the systems is the coolest choice for you.

What markets are you thinking of?

I would definitely stay with DAX, NASDAQ, S&P as well. You can also do the whole thing with crude oil. You can try it out in gold too. It actually works quite well there, but you have to calculate the percentage of the ATR to the extensions I just described so they fit the markets. But you can do that. It's keep it simple, but keep it smart. It's really easy.

and takes away the boredom.

That's exactly the point. You have to build concepts for people so that they are conducive to their personality. And for people who think very complexly, you often have to make things simpler, because as soon as too many concepts are added, they get muddled and no longer get into— So we've taken care of that now.

Very cool.

Cool.

Less is more. Once you've understood the interplay of balance and trend structures for yourself, you can also use simple technical concepts. It's really simple, but you have to have the discipline not to look for improvements on the outside. That will make it complex again and then lead to you simply making many bad trades and leaving out good ones because you're just spreading the concepts way too thin. And that's it. Thanks.

Thank you very much.

You're welcome.

I'm Christian, 36 years old, and I'm from Kassel. I started trading about 8 years ago, but I wasn't committed. It was more of a game back then. Back then, there were still binary options. Later on, let's say about 2 to 2.5 years ago, I started to get more involved with it, trying out various strategies, unfortunately via social media. I also joined a mentorship in the English-speaking world, but that didn't work out in the long run either. Bottom line is I'm not profitable. I don't need to try to explain to Tom how my strategy works and convince him of it if it doesn't work for me anyway. I'm here more to develop my personality further because those are the biggest blocks I have, and I think, uh, Tom and the team are the right people to talk to about that. So my strategy is I'm ready to work on myself, to work on my trading style, and when it comes to strategies, entries, and exits, I believe Tom knows more about that than I do. The Elliott Wave Theory describes the market in cycles, in an upward cycle and a downward cycle, and then you can basically interpret the individual waves of the cycles. And then I basically traded the pullback of the B wave in the direction of the trend, and then the C wave that was also coupled with fair value gaps, for example. And when you found an entry in the fair value gap coupled with the Elliott Wave Theory, then you took it. So my exit was actually a fixed stop loss, then basically the lower edge of the fair value gap, or just 2 ticks below, 2, a small tick below, let's put it that way. And the take profit was actually a dynamic one. So you always aimed for a risk-reward ratio of 3 to 1 first. And if you then saw that on the way there, the market had produced further fair values, Then I basically always moved a little bit below the last new fair value gap and traded it upwards. Hi, Dom, good to see you.

Hi, good to see you. So you've already had an exciting journey and—

A long one.

A long one. Yeah, sounds very much like it. I think it makes little sense to talk about strategies now that you've implemented so far, which in the end didn't lead to success. Much more important, I think, is to eliminate the connections between those strategies and what you're doing now. That means if you start trading now and you make 100 trades, and of those you have 60 stop losses, and of those you have 40 winners, and the risk-reward ratio is at 3, then you have a massive edge. But here is what happens when you are not yet familiar with such strategies, that with such a, let's say, not high percentage win rate, you simply tend to start wondering what you are doing wrong. Do you know that?

Yes, I know that from previous strategies.

Exactly. Ah, if only I had done this. Ah, if only I had done that. Ah, if only I had done this. And now the great art is that we ultimately build all that stuff in your brain so that you have confidence in a system that you are just getting to know. How high is your confidence in percent? What would you say?

Well, I am already optimistic at 80%.

That is cool.

Well, I just have the problem of getting the horsepower onto the road now.

Why do you have a problem then?

I am very good in my head, but when it comes to taking action, I hesitate because I want that final confirmation and I want the last bit of data and I want to look in there and that still has to be right.

Okay, that means If I understand correctly, you are always looking for supposed security.

Confirmation.

What confirmation are you really looking for?

The proof that I can do it.

Okay, and just to be clear, when exactly would you have the proof that you can actually do it? I'm curious to know.

Well, you could of course maybe pin that on being profitable, but I see it much more when I— There are also times when you are not profitable, even though you did everything and also journaled everything properly, executed everything properly. As soon as I can say, Okay, I have delivered 100% or 95% of my performance. I can still be satisfied even if I was not profitable with it.

Exactly. How do you deal with it when you are wrong?

It was a process, let's put it that way. Yes, in the beginning, the classic moving stops, taking profits too early, the market still has to turn. Okay, I was stopped out here, but down there I get the next entry. Yes, exactly. So in the beginning, I couldn't accept that I was wrong. That has gotten better in the meantime. I also always try to see, okay, when I fall into this mode, what is actually happening to me right now?

When do you recognize that?

Well, mostly when I fall into FOMO, so fear of missing out. When I am of the opinion, okay, the trade didn't go well, I have to do another one now to close positive, or because I actually have the right idea, but it didn't come to my setup at the wrong place.

When do you realize that you are in overmode? Do you realize it right after a trade and then get out? Or does it happen that you start blasting through the whole session like a madman?

It used to be like that. As I said, I would do a complete reset, a new beginning.

But that is rooted in here. These are, I'd say, subconscious patterns that simply lead to getting caught up in this downward spiral. And now the great art is for us traders to learn to check ourselves in the moment that we are trading. How much do you think that has to do with the actual trading process?

Well, for me, trading is also a bit— well, mostly, how should I put it— personal development. So it's not just about the trading, but also a journey of development for me as a person. So I really think that trading is 80% in your head.

What do you want from me?

From you? I want us to tackle these blockages so you can point out, okay, where does this come from? What is actually triggering me? And like, I'm really looking for concrete suggestions. Okay, so how can I actually overcome that? I mean, anyone can just give you a generic strategy to put it bluntly. But honestly, that's not really what I'm looking for, is it? I need something more practical. I've already realized with you guys that you want to tailor things to my type and my kind of character, and that's exactly what I need. It's no use for me to blindly chase some strategy that has a 70% success rate only for me to end up with 28% because it doesn't fit my style at all, my impatience, or whatever else.

Now, we have officially implemented this Trader DNA analysis methodology to help us see exactly which trading strategies might be most beneficial for you. And this allows us to ensure our approach is perfectly aligned with your goals. Have you gained any insights for yourself yet?

Yes. It's always amazing how well an analysis like that knows you, and I recognize myself in it, and also in the resistances that were shown. More structure. But structure can also paralyze me, because I don't like seeing structures as a prison, but rather—

Checked like that?

Yes, I know.

That's why—

Yes.

Look, I've made this black bar down here quite a while ago. It mentions a key figure here, and we really need to determine exactly what that is, specifically for these 2 distinct strategies. First, we are going to walk through a trend-following approach, and then after that, we will take a look at how to execute a counter-trading strategy. This is something I would normally never do, but I know that you currently gain confidence with breakouts where your FOMO will keep appearing. However, I want you to realize that you are actually someone who belongs down here, and you don't need to chase those volatile moves to prove your worth or find success in this market. And now there are 2 ways. One way to approach this is to say that we are going to take the time to clear up the existing mess and start fresh right here from the beginning. The other way to look at it is to say that we will just start implementing our ideas immediately and then see exactly how we end up down here once the process is complete. You make the decision yourself.

It's actually already been made. As I mentioned before, I have already taken the time to thoroughly look into the strategy, and I have noticed that counter-trading just suits my personal style much better in terms of how I handle the market preparation and also in the specific way that you actually play out those setups.

But it means fewer trades and having to hold out longer. Do you do that?

Intraday trading works, but I'm not a professional trader.

Intraday?

I can manage intraday, yeah, no problem.

And if you bring so much trust to get into the implementation here, you just have to focus on these counter trades. That means it's best to trade mostly when there are balance phases, yeah, and when you notice trend phases are there, look for other markets. Are you tied down to one market, or is it also possible to use different variations?

Well, my favorite quote, Albert Einstein: Doing the same thing over and over and expecting different results, the definition of insanity, right? I'm open to new markets. The problem is just I have to get to know them first. Well, crypto is something else entirely.

New world.

Yeah.

But then I recommend to you, when are you most likely to have time to work on the markets?

It varies.

It varies?

Well, to be honest with you, I am actually still working full-time at my current job.

Exactly.

But the problem is I have these 24-hour shifts. I basically have time for it every other day for sure and can invest the whole day into it, but currently I'm looking more at the cash hours.

Then I definitely recommend to you we look at the S&P 500 because this market has the unique ability to develop a certain dynamic. It is also incredibly liquid and quite frankly very honest in its representation. And especially when you go down the path where you say, I also want to explore counter-trades for myself, that's naturally difficult in such a bullish extreme phase. But I think that's great, and then we'll look together at what we add to it. If you say, I feel comfortable with that, there are still plenty of other markets.

Sounds like a plan.

It's a plan. I thank you very much.

Thank you.

Thank you very much. I rarely experience someone being so unbiased. Absolute thumbs up for that. The leap of faith for this concept, how we work with market profiling and so on, is of course huge, especially when someone comes from the crypto world and has traded a lot there and also applies it conceptually there for themselves. And I'm convinced that once we've fixed whatever stress is there, it will be relatively easy for you because you have a skill, you don't cling to old things. That's rare. That doesn't mean they're gone, but you don't cling to them, and I find that very strong.

That's cool.

Nice.

And as a castle native anyway, anyway, super. Yes, thank you very much.

Thank you.

Thanks.

I'm Bogdan. I'm 38 years old, and I've been trading for a year and a half, and I live in Cyprus now. I lived in Dubai before that and in Germany. Tom is a family man first and foremost, and that's for me personally actually the most important thing. I just see him there with completely different eyes. He has a big family, the kids love him, and in addition, he's also a crazy trader and with 20 years of experience, and I think that says it all. And for me, both aspects are always important, human and professional. I will convince Tom with my way of doing things. He will see that I'm determined. I'm a trader. and that I give everything to achieve my goals. I trade the ES. I've tried a few things. I used to trade crypto, but now mainly indices futures. I started with intraday swing. I also tried my hand at scalping. I traded breakouts, day trading, so breakouts, then also counter trading. And I rather have the feeling that I'm still kind of looking for my strategy. When I've drawn the zones in the market profile and then see reactions at certain zones that I want to see, that's a signal for me where I then go in. I also look at a footprint, order flow, of course, and if I notice that certain zones just don't hold anymore or that counter-pressure comes in, so especially in the cumulative delta, then I see that I get out. Hi, Tom.

Hello. So let's see what I've understood so far. You prefer trading the S&P?

Yes.

You trade many different strategies and are looking for the path that leads to your goal. And the zones are something that provide alpha for you to even find ideas, right? Then footprint charts, order flow, and so on are all familiar processes. But because of this strategy hopping, there's nothing right now where you say you feel truly comfortable and you're looking for a real strategy That's clear to you?

Yep.

Okay, let's go through the following steps together. Let's take a profile like this one here, for example, right? And let's just say, for the sake of this demonstration, that here is where we have a value high, and over here is where we have a value low. So here is the equilibrium area, here is the POC. And now, looking at the chart, we might have some critical information both below and above this current level, from which you typically derive your so-called zones. Now, my specific question to you is this: if the market opens right here, for example, and it suddenly races into this area, what is your very first thought? What is the immediate action you would take in that situation?

I first look at the context beforehand. I see whether I'm looking more for longs or for shorts, and I trade within that context then.

And how do you evaluate the context?

By looking at market profile, volume profile.

Okay. That means you look at trend, long, short, or balance. Okay.

And then I take a moment to look back at exactly where the closing price settled yesterday during the regular cash session. How does it open? If I'm in a long context, let's say, and the market opens below the value area, that's the first sign of weakness for me then. But we're still oriented in a long context, and in this scenario, I'd look for the price to run to the POC. Back to Value Area Low, and I'd look for a long there.

Good. And now we start with strategy hopping, because everything you defined before is totally smart in itself. I can't say anything else about it. This constant strategy hopping essentially means that you never really know whenever you finally get a trade whether you should ride it all the way to the top with a notoriously low hit rate, or if you should instead take a quick reversal trade right here with a very tight stop loss, for example. That would be what we call option 2. It creates a lot of uncertainty because you are constantly switching between 2 completely different mindsets and execution styles. And option 3 would even be to say, I'll trade 5 short trades now until the market is maybe up here or has broken out below. Now I find myself asking, exactly what specific metrics have you actually collected for these different approaches? To the point where you cannot even quantify the results for yourself yet? It really makes you wonder about the underlying data. What of that is even mathematically valuable for me?

That's the sticking point. Since I haven't really been doing this for very long, I honestly don't really have any hard mathematical metrics or data points to back up every single one of my strategies.

That means, conversely, it's now down to the real grunt work. Where you clearly have to say to yourself, I'll use 1 or 2 specific strategies right now and then collect the metrics. And for each strategy, at least 150 trades, so that I have any mathematical significance at all. You haven't done that so far.

I've done that for the DAX and Euro Stoxx, but not yet for the ES.

Okay, when are you starting that?

As soon as possible.

Okay, and now there are these so-called replay functions, Maybe you'll find 50 of them already.

50, you could have definitely done.

And then you have another 100 days to develop the rest for yourself. That means in 100 days, you'll be at a level with the intraday swing where you can say, I have a verifiable number now, at least.

Exactly.

So, what about the focus? If you decide, I'm going to zoom in right here now, let's go ahead and use that magnifying glass tool once again to get a closer look. And let's just say, for the sake of this example, that while you are currently in this specific zoom mode, you decide to go ahead and navigate away to do something else entirely. Namely, since you have the dynamic skills, from now on you'll do every day when the market moves here. So in this price range, you make 1 to 2 short trades, whether it's counter, whether it's breakout, whatever you see, because you already see a lot. But please also do 2 analyses there, one for counter, one maybe for trend continuations or breakouts. That depends on how you build your context. And then after 150 days, definitely absolute clarity on these metrics. And here you can also go back and use the replay function and go through the whole thing.

That's relatively easy. Yeah.

Exactly. But now let's get into live trading regarding the comfort factor. That's a different story altogether, because when you do something in replay or backtesting, there's very little emotion involved. How do you categorize emotions for yourself?

I would say that I'm actually very emotionally stable. The only thing is, once the trade is running, I never touch the stop. If it hits the stop, it's a calculated risk. The only thing I struggle with from time to time is the take profit. So at the latest, let's say with an intraday swing, if I want to trade through the zone, I start getting nervous at the VPOC because then I think, should I maybe take some partial profits?

Yeah.

And secure the trades, so to speak. And that's when I'm always overthinking it.

Average risk-reward ratio is a term, you know, and that in relation to a win rate is also a concept. That means if you don't have that number yet, and for example, you're doing these intraday swing trades, just assume a hypothetical win rate of 28%. That's not high. But with that, you definitely have the option to say, I'll skip anything with a risk-reward ratio less than 3-point-something. And then you also have the possibility to never take a trade with a clear conscience before it has reached that. I would then, for example, go ahead and say, if we're here at the POC and you enter the trade here, this distance must have a risk-reward ratio of at least 3 to 1. And then you can still decide at the POC whether to take it or not, but I'm not going to lose money. My own absolute approach is this: I prefer to take 2 positions, take 1 position out, and let the second position run. I really don't touch that one anymore. By doing that, you limit your profit, but you have a higher hit rate. That's just what I do. And if you can't take the ES, then you just take 4 MES or 8 MES and split them up. You can do all of that.

The other problem I see, or the challenge, is the cash hours for the ES. I'm a morning person. I get up early and I have the most energy and concentration in the morning. The ES opens here in Cyprus at 4:30 PM, and I always find that a bit difficult because those aren't the times I want to trade. That means I actually trade the ES more or less pre-session. Are there markets where you could say they would fit my preferences better?

Well, definitely. But let me put it this way: ES is one of the easiest markets, right? And the DAX future is a very difficult instrument with the liquidity these days anyway. It's getting more and more illiquid. Now, the MDAX has been around for a while, and it almost has more liquidity than the big DAX now. And I would really, if you've gained experience with the instrument, carve out the time Even if it sucks, but you have to consider you can earn your daily bread with it, right? And of course, you can trade the bond future very well, for example, but you have to watch out a bit. It's much more trend stable, right? So FGBL is a great market, and Euro Stoxx is a sleeping pill. I wouldn't recommend it to you now; you'll fall asleep. What you can look at are commodities, which already have good liquidity in the morning, like crude oil and so on. You can use those, but then you have to refer to the Asian session and 24-hour profiles.

Okay.

If you had actually found a good way with this, then you have to take the time. That's just how it is, unfortunately, right? And I wouldn't start now and transfer this concept one-to-one to the pre-session. It will never run as stably. It's logical, right?

The volume just isn't there, right? And then it does— I've already noticed the backtest on the DAX. So if there's anything pre-session or later, you always get stopped out. Then it goes in all directions.

Maybe very importantly, when you've fallen in love with the market, it's always difficult. But if you've fallen in love with a market that is actually by far from its base, the most stable one is, then you sometimes just have to make the decision, bite the bullet, and adapt to these times. Another very, very important homework assignment. If you use different setups and strategies for yourselves, many don't realize this, you can't determine one track record for everything you do. You have to do that corresponding to different strategies and then test it and play it through for yourselves and also play it through live. Only then will you have truly smart key figures associated with it. And please start doing that today if possible. Thank you.

I'm Sascha Schmalz. I'm a native Berliner. I'm 36 years old and I've been trading for about 1 year. So I don't actually have a real strategy. So I trade a lot of breakouts through high points or volume zones. Well, I wait until one of my zones, let's say, is broken through, and then I wait for the pullback and enter. I exit the trade when one of my zones is reached. So when I see there's a lot of volume, an accumulation zone, I only go that far and then exit the trade. The risk is always in the middle of my zone. So, when I draw my volume zone, it's in the middle.

So, hi, Sascha.

Hello, Tom.

I'm glad. You prefer breakouts, I've understood that correctly so far, right?

Yes.

In your potential analysis, for example, I saw that you are someone who I think can think very complexly and who also really likes to develop. Is that correct?

That's correct.

Okay. And I can tell you right away, you're currently trading a structure and strategy that probably isn't effective at all for your actual skills.

Okay, that sounds good.

Yeah. But now we have to find out, is what I'm saying correct? Because it could also be wrong. Yeah. Is that a presupposition? Or is there an emotional aspect that you like the fast things? And for example, you don't really use the complex mathematical key figures, nor do you utilize the much more difficult to construct counter trades, which are often Okay, yeah. What do you think about that when I say it like that?

Yeah, I think that I don't want to watch the trade for so long because also, let's say, if it goes against me, I get out or do something else and then look again later. But I can't, let's say, switch off in my head and do something completely different because I'm thinking the whole time, is it going to hit my stop loss now?

Do you have financial pressure?

No, not really.

Okay, because that would be a very simple explanation for it. But that's cool for now. Volume zones. How do you determine them?

Through the Volume Profile in ATAS. I basically start by drawing in the high-volume nodes, or rather, I focus on the volume peak edges. Once those are established, I usually break the chart down into 3 distinct zones to help me better visualize the price action.

That means if we draw a profile now and it would look like this, for example, did I understand correctly that you mark this price range, this price range, and this price range?

I would always mark the, let's say, the prominent edges.

Very good. Well, I'm glad about that. That means you look here, for example, and here, for example. And what about up there?

Up there, I would also, let's say, mark here.

Here?

Yes.

Okay. I'd like to tell you the following about this volume profile first, so that we already have a small solution there. We have the value area here somewhere, right? So let's say this is our current value area. Here we have, let's say, the point of control. I know it has to be here, right? So, and now the question is always when you trade breakouts and you have a profile like this, In what timeframe do you do that?

Drawing the profiles, or— in the 5-minute timeframe.

5-minute timeframe, okay. And if the market goes below here, for example, what do you want to see here to say, I'm trading a breakout?

Well, I really want to see where the closing price lands outside just this once.

Closing price, yes.

Then the next candle. And if it makes a pullback, Exactly, and then it would have to rise above this candle again.

Above the body or above the wick?

Above the body.

And now it would run above it again, then you would enter?

I also look at the delta.

Ah, okay.

So, the best thing is a change in the delta.

You want to see that there's a negative delta then, a selling surplus.

Exactly.

Okay.

And then you would book a short trade here, for example?

Yes.

Okay, great. That means we've already found an entry variant for ourselves now. But you also just said that you look at daily highs and lows too.

Exactly.

What do you look for there?

I look there when the price, let's say, breaks out.

If it goes out like this now?

Exactly. It has to close outside again. I look at the pullback delta. I also look at the footprint chart, but that's usually not the decisive criterion for me.

So, and there you basically follow the same path as down here?

Exactly.

Okay, when you define targets, how do you do that?

Well, I look if I— up here, well, I also mark volume zones in the past chart where I say it will run to that point without any problems. And then I observe and usually exit when it has reached the zone.

Now, you say that you often take profits too early?

Yes.

Breakouts are actually trades that are very dynamic and happen quickly. And if you do that in the 5-minute chart, I first have to understand— let's play the following game. This here is, for example, just any random profile. And let's just assume, purely hypothetically for the moment, that these specific price ranges, as if you had already predefined them yourself, are actually working well for you, okay? Now, let's say the market, for example, shifts over here and finally gives you that exact setup you were looking for right here. And you want to define an entry for yourself here. Yeah? Then the basic conditions are met for now. So now it's usually the case, when we talk about a real breakout, there's a high chance of a quick move here.

Yes.

Exactly. It usually goes above the previous day's high, or whatever. That creates a certain amount of acceleration. Now I'm asking myself, if the acceleration doesn't happen here, is that the moment you'd like to exit a trade?

Yes.

Okay, that sounds great. I'm curious, have you ever actually done any deep analysis for this specific trading variation? Like, how often would it have worked out successfully if you had just let it run on its own?

It actually works quite consistently. Whenever I run a thorough backtest on historical market charts, the strategy then usually performs really well and yields positive results.

But the moment you go into your own implementation, you find it very, very difficult.

Very.

This year, how much time on average per day have you spent trading on the stock market?

A few hours already, so I'd say mostly from 15:30 to 18:00 hours.

And what do you do all that time?

Watching, analyzing too.

And now we're at your yellow part, and that's where I wanted to go. You get much more joy from the intelligent structure of the markets, what I think you could or would build in there, than in the pure Could that be?

That could be, yes.

But tell me briefly, when you go to the market at 15:30, what do you do?

I draw in my zones. Yeah, I'd say I try to trade, but often I don't do anything because I either don't see anything. So it kind of depends on my form that day.

Okay, so your daily form is very fluctuating. Okay. I'd like to give you some confidence, first of all, that what you're doing there is very smart. That feels good, not because I'm just saying it from my gut, but because it's conceptually well thought out. What I definitely want to give you as a piece of professional advice is this: if you are already working with profiles anyway, please make sure to use value areas as your very first point of reference to even begin to create a proper zone definition. It really helps to establish a solid foundation for your analysis before you move on to any other technical steps. Everything in between here, whether it's low-volume nodes or whatever, please leave that out. That won't lead to good results if you're looking for quick trades, because otherwise you're looking for quick trades in a zone of equilibrium. Does that make sense to you?

Makes sense, yeah.

Okay, great. Now, for the next barrier that establishes a zone, we need another piece of information. That means we could first select what kind of profile we even have. Do we have a balance profile or a trend profile? Do you know the differences?

Well, D-profile, E-profile.

Yes, there are so many, double distribution and whatever else they're all called. So I think you're just missing a bit of basic knowledge about which profile shapes you need to locate first. Why am I saying this? If a market breaks out of an established equilibrium profile, you can certainly look to trade that breakout, but only if it also moves into a state of new acceptance up here. It is crucial to wait for that confirmation before you commit to the trade, as it validates the move. Otherwise, a breakout doesn't make sense here for now, because the probability is higher that the market will run back into equilibrium. But if it really accepts higher prices, I would recommend only trading this setup from above here. Then you have huge leverage where you might only find 1 or 2 trades a day, but they have a much, much higher speed.

Okay, yeah.

The same applies to the downside. Now, I wanted to tell you something else about the support and resistance of your zones. I would always look at what other significant point is below the value area or above the value area. That can especially be a low-volume node, so like a dent in the profile, Or if we're in trend profiles, a single print. And then you have really cool zones that also carry a certain logic within themselves. And now we have to do the following to stay on the topic of breakouts for now. Zones are based on 2 price ranges that always have to do with the value area because of equilibrium and another piece of information above or below. If you look from below, We note that there must be a clear, decisive impulse in the market, coupled with a genuine acceptance of either significantly higher or lower price levels, to even begin to recognize that the broader market is truly and fundamentally willing to accept and sustain these entirely new price ranges. And only in the very next step of our process do we go ahead and say, here is your specific setup. which you just described to me, and confirm that it can be effectively used for your particular needs and requirements.

Okay.

With how many markets do you do this?

With 2.

Which ones are those?

S&P 500 and the CL.

Great.

I would really take another look at the NASDAQ.

I did, but it kicked me out so many times.

That's exactly the point, and I wanted to change the timeframe now.

Okay.

I wouldn't look at the M5, but I'd look at the M15 or the M30. You have fewer trades, but the ones you have are great.

Okay, yeah.

Is that good for you too?

Definitely, sure.

Okay, just test it out. And now we're coming to the last part. Please go ahead and perform a thorough test of this specific structure, for example, by utilizing a replay mode. First, you should carefully look at the support and resistance levels accordingly, just as I have demonstrated to you previously. Secondly, I need you to locate whether a clear balance shift has actually occurred from these specific price ranges. And then evaluate the implications of that movement.

Yes.

Thirdly, wait patiently for your setup. And now we come to point 4. Where is your next profit target? And since we're doing breakouts in a very smart price range, I'd recommend the following to you. Please set your profit target at 1.2 to 1.5 times the size of your stop loss. Take that profit mechanically at first, even if it doesn't feel particularly smart in the moment. The goal here is simply to get a real feel for the process and more importantly, to gain absolute clarity on what your actual win rate is over time and to recognize a corresponding average risk-reward ratio proportion for it.

Okay.

And then you simply have a very clear metric for every trade you make after that. But you really have to go through that entire process at least 150 times in every single market, and only then you will definitely have a solid strategy where At least from what I can say right now, you will consistently achieve added value. However, what you are definitely missing at this stage is, first of all, categorizing your profiles correctly. By that, I don't just mean balance and trend, but also what different rules these profiles have.

Okay.

Then B, even if you don't like footprint charts, maybe get to know footprint charts in a smart way. That helps a lot with timing the trade entry via pullback better, to be there when it's running or not, or to decide on the market. It's just an idea, you don't have to, but I would definitely take another look at it. And C, definitely do the homework and determine these mathematical metrics so that you have your expected value per trade very clearly according to this concept. So then I would suggest that you go ahead and do the following, and please be sure to carefully document exactly how that feels for you, because I am genuinely convinced that later on, based on everything I have seen of how you tick and how you operate, You are absolutely going to end up doing the following as well. You won't trade breakouts as much anymore, but you'll use the counters once you've gathered enough experience for yourself, because you'll see how often the market turns after that.

Okay.

And how often the market turns, especially if it hasn't made this, this impulse here, and then you have the possibilities here to suddenly achieve much larger risk-reward ratios with counter trades. But first, you need the certainty that what you're doing there will actually lead to your goal, and then you'll take it one step further. Is that cool?

Yes, Adrien, perfect.

Check. I'll just summarize the whole thing in words again. I think it's very important to correctly classify the market context by knowing different profile forms and their associated rules. Secondly, I think it's already great what kind of concept you've come up with for trade entries. I would just bring it into combination with the impulses above and below these levels that I just presented to you. Those make a bit more sense. And of course, to determine the mathematical key figures relatively quickly now, for example via the replay function, and then you'll also have added value. And then you'll get bored very quickly and realize there are even cooler strategies that build on this simple concept. That's how I would summarize the whole thing. First of all, thank you so much for being here. Thank you for your trust. I had a lot of fun, and I'm looking forward to the time we'll spend together in the winter. The winter is very warm here in Cyprus, so it's really great. Those who live here know that. And the time will be very demanding because it's very important to me that, you know, if we go down this path, it's not just fun and games, but above all looking deeper into to what might not have been effective so far, why it hasn't worked until now. It's very important to me that you just know, I think you're all great, but I can't manage to mentor everyone individually, and we'll have to spend time together there in small groups very often to see how the whole thing feels for you in trading, because in the end, that's the most essential thing to check, and I'm really up for that. I'm really looking forward to it. And I'd like to take you along, because for me you're someone who comes from the outside, from a completely different world, a huge challenge for me.

I couldn't believe it at all, but when he looked at me shortly before, I thought, okay, he's going to choose me. He's basically taking me by the hand so that I'll progress much faster than I otherwise would. And yeah, now the goal is in sight, now I just have to implement it and pull the trigger.

You haven't heard anything about our concepts yet, so it will be easier and yet harder for us, and I'm gigantically looking forward to that. I want to take you along too, because I just know that what you do is from a social aspect something that is very, very, very, very important. And when you become financially free, I know 100% that you will do great things with it.

It was kind of building up. He was explaining something at the start, and he kept looking me the whole time, and I had to grin, he had to grin, and then I just kind of felt like, okay, he's gonna say my name. Inside, I'm not really someone who just bursts out like that, you know? I mostly just kept it to myself. It was a huge joy, and I'm grateful to be able to stay a part of the project.

And I'm really looking forward to that too. And then I want to take you along. But there is a catch to it, and that's why I'm not choosing you as this group member right now. I want to mentor you together with your wife without any cameras.

I was definitely surprised that a solution is being found there too, and I just think it's great. I don't really know what to say. We want to specialize in trading. We are certainly on a very good path there, but having professional guidance with that specific intent will truly save us years of hard work and help make us sustainably profitable in the long run. It is really about building a solid foundation, and we are incredibly grateful for that.

I want us to take a path there that isn't being filmed all the time. That's not possible for you with your children. I know that I've got Bogdan here in my corner anyway. I'm going to take you apart, but I won't have a camera following us either. And that is the decision that I have made now. I'm looking for full commitment because that's what we're giving to Thank you very much. Thank you.