Are You Using WORTHLESS Trading Patterns? | Trading Psychology

Hello and welcome to lesson 11 of the upland Psychology course for high performance trading. This video is all about apathenia, something you may or may not have heard of before. But in trading, this is the elephant in the room. Something that is not talked about very much for two reasons. First of all, it challenges a lot of beliefs about trading and can upset a lot of people and it's certainly uncomfortable. Secondly, if this was Talked about more, 90% of the gurus, the so called experts and financial commentators would be made to look like fools and would become redundant. There's a multi billion dollar industry built on complete hogwash and no one wants to point out that the emperor isn't wearing any clothes. So what is apophenia? Well, the definition is simply the tendency to perceive a connection or meaningful pattern between unrelated or random things such as objects or ide. But basically the side effect of System 1's extraordinary pattern spotting ability. A survival strategy for reducing uncertainty and trying to predict what might happen next. And more broadly, categorizing the world by working out what's just background noise and what's something that might be useful to us or potentially a threat. Way back in our history, this pattern spotting ability has been fundamental to identifying and catching food. We had to develop the ability to spot patterns in the chaos and try to determine what is nothing and what is something, what is signal and what is noise like in this example, what is background, what we would call noise or random meaningless intonation. And what is food, what we would call signal. Something meaningful that we can take action on. The problem is visibility is so good, it keeps spotting patterns. Even in information that is completely random, you can't turn it off. It scans anything and everything for something that may have meaning. And the word may is important here. It's constantly comparing the information that it's looking at to its memory banks of known patterns that it recognizes, whether that's food, faces, animals, symmetry, geometric patterns, and so on. And once you see a pattern, you can't unsee it. You might be looking at the clouds and you see nothing, but as soon as someone points out a shape, then you can see it too. Once you identify it as a cat, it's difficult to see any other pattern or go back to seeing it as completely meaningless noise. For thousands of years we've been looking at all kinds of random things like clouds, sounds, geological formations and even food, and thinking we can see faces. And if you're not careful, System two asks the wrong questions, like why is Mother Teresa in my pastry or Jesus in my Toast. And if you ask yourself a why question, you're already embedding the assumption that there is a face there, rather than it just be in nothing. More. From the inevitable consequence of your amazingly powerful pattern spotting ability, here's a famous example of when the why question was posed. When a pattern was spotted. In 1976, the vitamin 1 orbiter found this apparent ancient monument on the surface of Mars. And even the most hardened skeptics and scientists were starting to ask why or how such a feature might have gotten to be there. That was until higher resolution photographs and subsequent missions showed that there was nothing there. Well, when we see something that we've been trained to recognize, it just feels true. Even when we see a pattern in random information that has no meaning. You almost can't go a day without seeing patterns that aren't real. For the rest of the day, you will probably see more faces than you would normally, because now you've been primed to see faces. And that's exactly what this is. It's priming. Once you've been primed to see something, the more you will see it. When you first consider buying a new brand of car but you haven't had before, all of a sudden you start seeing that brand of car everywhere. You can't believe how popular they are. The point is, when you look at pure noise like this sand, but you're told to look for a pattern, you tend to see it. You'll find something. Pause the video now if you want to see if you can spot anything. Is there something hiding in that sand that could potentially be food? Or what about here? Is this noise or is there an identifiable pattern? Imagine you're on an island and you're absolutely starving. And if you wander down to the seashore and you start looking through the rock pools and shallow waters for fish or crabs, every single one of us in that situation would be overcome with apophenia. You would constantly identify false patterns, poking the sand at anything that looked like an outline for potential food. And you can easily imagine being wrong most of the time. In other words, incorrectly identifying patterns and shapes, or what we would call a false positive. You see the pattern, you poke it, but it's only sand noise. That is perfectly acceptable in a survival situation because it's fine to poke at sand 99 times out of 100, given that the one time you're right, you get to eat. There is no penalty for 99 false positives to gain one true positive. But in trading, you've guessed it. This is a maladaptive problem because there's a massive penalty for identifying false positives. You can't get into 99 trades based on a false pattern in the hope that one might be true. You won't have an account left. So apathenia is the result of an evolutionary requirement to see patterns in the chaos to reduce uncertainty and identify food or even creditors. But it's yet another oversensitive smoke alarm. It's better for this ability to be overactive and see way more patterns than they really are in order to catch the one that is true and will help you survive despite producing an error most of the time. In other words, it's better a false positive than a false negative. Better you incorrectly identify nine out of 10 lions jumping out of your skin every time the wind blows in the grass, but still being able to run away from the real one on the tenth time while or poke at nothing but sand nine times out of ten in order to catch a fish or a crab one time. So it's better that system one proposes a pattern and then system two checks it. Pattern spotting is also used in behavior prediction. We learn to spot cues from facial expressions or mannerisms to try and help us predict someone's next move. But if we can't read these facial or body language cues, like for instance, reading a text or an email, we can easily become paranoid or misidentified the intent or sentiment in it because we are missing vital information. People's mannerisms and body language is way more complex than just simply reading one isolated signal. A classic example of this is when in corporate training courses, people are told that crossed arms means they've made up their mind or they're not open to ideas. But that's a massive oversimplification. The folding of arms is one thing, a facial expression is another thing. What they say and the speed at which they move and the eye contact is all, of course, other variable data no one thing means anything by itself. And there's a lesson here for trading. You may be told that a candle formation like a large engulfing candle means something like a bullish move, for example. But how was that candle formed? Did it move up continuously in one direction or did it fluctuate up and down before it settled? Was it a fast move or slow? Was the spread 1 pip or 10 pips? Did the price jump through limited liquidity or did it have to consume massive depth of liquidity? And who did the buy in? A combined group of small retail traders or one massive corporate customer? There are hundreds of hidden variables that make that single candle be mean, totally different things. And this is an example of how an oversimplification of trained patterns can get you into serious trouble. But regardless, you can't turn off this pattern spotting supercomputer. Even when given information that you know to be 100% meaningless. Like the famous inkblot pictures system, one tries to make sense of anything and everything that it sees. Sometimes it's straight away, like here. Sometimes it has to try a little bit harder. But eventually it will find something. Pause the video. Now, if you need a little bit of time to find a mean thought pattern, here, system one will find something if you give it time. Often the patterns that it thinks it sees are so vivid, it looks for more and more evidence to support its findings. So if you find a face in a client, for instance, it will start to look for the body and other fine details. The problem lies partly in how we perceive randomness. If you remember the example that I gave you of the kitchen tiling in lesson seven, we expect randomness to be visually equally distributed. But this is actually highly ordered. This is not random. Truly random, ironically, is far more likely to look like there is a real pattern. Like in this example of someone who shuffled and picked these tiles at random and then was totally confused as to why it didn't look random with those dark tiles being clustered around the edges. So what's all this got to do with looking at charts? Well, let's do an experiment. Pause the video and describe what you interpret as happening over the past six hours of price movement on this chart. What do you think? Well, as you might have guessed, this is not market data. This is a printout of a random number generator using 5050 coin flips imported into a charting package. So there is no meaning here, no signal. If you have any sense or feeling of meaning. Assuming that this was price action, that is 100% apophenia. Just like when the ipod buyers could not accept that the random shuffle didn't sound like it was hand traders don't expect a 5050 coin flip to create trends or overall direction. They would expect it to oscillate around the central level. But if I flip a coin and I plot those results in Excel, say one tick up for heads and one tick down for tails, this is what you get. It's what mathematicians call a random walk. This is nothing but noise. But intuitively, we don't expect trends or patterns to be visible like this in random information. So if there is a seemingly consistent bias in one direction, system one will assume it must have been caused by a non random force. And if a peak or trough repeatedly hits the same level, there must be a reason. Why else would it react around that same level repeatedly. Of course this is an illusion. I created this with a coin flip. But it's incredibly alluring for System 1 to make meaning and justification to create a story. Just see if any of this sounds familiar. Okay, so first of all, let's have a look at this here. Very obvious support. The market tested it and retested it four times during a very messy area of chop. On the fifth retest, the market blew through it and it fell decisively before finding new support at this level. We then saw a bounce followed by a retest forming a perfect double bottom. There was a false breakout and the INEV pullback which trapped the retail traders who bought that false breakout too early and it took out their stops, after which the smart money loaded up and the market then rallied as you'd expect. Pay particular attention to this area here where we blew through the previous resistance, which in turn then became new support, a clear signal for the smart traders to add to their long positions. The second rally up was the exhaustion move, signaling the end of the trend. And the market has since gone into a period of sideways consolidation. Watch these key levels here for a major break in either direction. Expect a break of this minor support in the short term. But wait and see if this dominant area holds. If it does, expect a move to the Upside. But if it fails, well, there's nothing to stop it until the last area of significant support all the way down here. I hope you can sense my sarcasm. I'm seeing patterns and creating a believable narrative about random conflict data. But trust me, this is exactly the kind of meaningless nonsense that paid analysts spirit off every single day. It is not going to help you trade or make money. Now I should point out that there is still a raging debate amongst academics, economists and mathematicians as to whether the market is in fact a random walk or not. What I would say is the debate, like most of the factors of modern society, is oversimplified and polarized. It's not one or the other. All markets contain both signal and noise. They are random with elements of non random. We can sum it up by saying the market is less random than academia believes and more random than traders believe. The academics are more likely to take the view that markets are unbeatable in the long term, and if you are profitable they are, then you're just one of the lucky ones in a random pool of Trader outcomes and traders, on the other hand, are more likely to massively underestimate the random component and they see meaning behind every pattern. And importantly, you must remember it is a mathematical impossibility to profit from random data in the long term. Pattern recognition by itself is not evidence of any meaningful or actionable information. Patterns you might expect to see in real data will and do appear in random data for random reasons. And when they do, it says nothing whatsoever about past or future price, direction or the size of the move. Now, I'm not saying that actionable, meaningful patterns do not exist, and I'm not saying that the traders do not use patterns to make decisions. What I'm saying is your chart data contains both signal and noise, and therefore to varying degrees. Real actionable patterns are, to variable degrees, completely indistinguishable from patterns drummed up by apophenia and nothing else. Sadly, a huge section of the trading community do not and will never accept this. But to be fair, this is understandable for two reasons. Firstly, Apophenia System 1's ability to spot false patterns in the chaos always feels true. That is, until it's challenged by System 2's methodical and logical thinking. For instance, you see a cat's face in the client, but you don't believe it is a cat because you can see that it's appeared in random noise information. But in market information, challenging System 1's pattern recognition is much higher. But the second reason is that a huge amount of trader training preys deliberately on apophenia. New traders are told that pattern spotting by itself gives you actionable information. In fact, it's promoted as the primary and often sole requirement for trading. If you see this pattern, then this outcome will or is more likely to happen. But that advice is given by people who themselves have no idea what random looks like or what apophenia is. They believe noise would look obviously random and can be told apart from meaningful data, and that repeating patterns would only appear in real data. And they believe this because, well, look, I can see it. It must be real. Any trading strategies that are reduced simply to pattern spotting, however complex, is not providing any edge whatsoever. This is why traders are so frustrated when they backtest a system. They find a pattern that appears to result in a high win rate or good profits, and the other traders swear have meaning. They then get a strategy coded into a robot which identifies all of those patterns and simulates trading off them, and the results are negative. The the reason is those patterns by themselves don't and can't differentiate between signal and noise and nine out of 10 of them are just noise. Here's another 100% noise chart using 5050 coin flips. Your system one, whether you like it or not, will be able to superimpose onto that support and resistance. Fibonacci retracements, consolidation, breakouts, wave patterns and the list goes on. That's a real problem if you can only make money in the long term from the occasional non random events in the market. So if the same patterns appear in signal and noise, how do you know which is which? Well, you triangulate. That means you see a pattern and then combining it with other market information such as volume, liquidity, news, correlations and so on, plus input from your own intuition and experience, assuming it is developed and trustworthy of course, which is what I've talked about in the previous lesson. If you think back to the example of reading the person's meaning from their folding arms, this would be additionally looking at the facial expressions, tone of voice, eye movements and so on, as well as drawing on your experience and familiarity with interacting with lots of other people in similar situations in the past. I'll give you some more in depth examples of real market patterns a little bit later in the video. So we'll come back to this Now. A common argument at this point is that trader A or B uses indicator X or Y and they make money from certain patterns. That's proof the pattern works well. That's a flawed argument for two reasons. If I run 100 random walk simulations just like this one, simulating 100 traders making decisions from apophenia alone in a conflict market, 50% will win and a small percent of those winners will win really big. And you can be sure those big winners would be convinced they've beaten the market and they're the ones who will advertise their successes vocally. The losers remain very quiet, which by the way means that our intuitive memory recall is is massively skewed. We only hear of the successes, not the failures. So we have a distorted picture. One or two self selected winners who seem to be succeeding is not probabilistic evidence. It's like the Garen Brown horse racing video that I linked to in the probabilities lesson. If you haven't watched that, you really should because it demonstrates this perfectly. If enough people place random bets, one or two will have even 100% win rates and they will make a fortune purely from random distribution in the short term anyway. It's going to be a painful experience over the Longer term, when that randomness balances out and they lose it all. The second reason that's a flawed argument is because even those few traders who are genuinely beating the market beyond chance, using simple patterns for their entry, are not profitable because of that pattern. Many traders aren't aware of what makes them profitable. They can utterly believe, sometimes fanatically, that it's the pattern that they rely on and they will defend it to their last breath. But in actual fact, it's some other really fundamental basic component that is making them profitable. Things as simple as cutting losses and let him win his run. They may even have good intuition, which they undervalue. The importance of using patterns and making money is not proof, but the pattern is responsible. Don't forget, you can be profitable with a coin flip entry as long as you manage the trade professionally and exit at the appropriate time. We make money on the exit, not the entry. So why else would the trading space persist with pattern only decision making? Well, pattern recognition is intuitive and it's relatively cognitively easy. But most importantly, it feels technical, even exciting. And as fundamentally visual creatures. We love visual information. We love symmetry, colors, shapes, patterns and labels. And we're easily drawn to the idea that analysis of these patterns will help us identify what is about to happen next. We're easily drawn into more and more complexity. We think that by adding more layers, we can filter out the noise and reduce the uncertainty which, remember System One hates. System One is desperate to make sense of the chaos. The comments on this chart are a classic example of someone analyzing their own apophenia without answering any questions whatsoever. You can make predictions all day long and cover yourself in hindsight to explain away why 50% of the predictions didn't come true. This retrospective analysis of the past and justification of why you're only right half the time is very addictive and you feel like you're doing hard analytical work, but it's like trying to run to the next city by running flat out on a treadmill. You're expending a lot of cognitive effort and going nowhere. The gambling industry depends almost entirely on our need to spot patterns. And it deliberately designs machines and games to make us think that we are doing work. Firstly because work usually equals results, as you know. But also they want us to think that we are spotting patterns in the chaos. It makes us think that we're defying probability and working the problem out. And on that mechanism alone, you've got an almost 500 billion a year industry. There is no difference between a pattern spotting obsession in Gambling and traders that are trading with pattern only systems. But at least the gambler knows deep down it cannot be beaten. But they maintain the illusion largely for entertainment, or more sadly, through pure addiction. But traders think they're going to work. They would laugh at a gambler if they thought they were going to a casino every morning to play machines in office clothes with a packed lunch and claim that this was his or her career. But at the same time, they might be staring at six screens drawing complex patterns on the chart. And they believe that they're doing something infinitely more intellectual, mathematical and clever. But there is no difference. Here's a quick summary of what we've talked about so far. I'm not going to go through it line by line. You can just pause the video if you want to take some notes or reflect on what we've covered so far. What I want to move on to is some examples and explanations for how you can differentiate between meaningful patterns and nonsense patterns. Remember that markets, your charts contain both signal and noise. So how can you tell them apart so that you're trading rather than gambling? The simplest way to differentiate between the two is that a meaningful signal pattern will only appear in non random data. So imagine flipping a coin non stop, 24 hours a day, 7 days a week for 10 years. You are going to see patterns repeat themselves over and over again. Such as five heads in a row or five heads followed by two tails followed by three heads or three heads followed by four tails. Now, despite those being repeating patterns that all appear frequently in that data, you'll agree with me that they are nonsense and they offer you no advantage whatsoever. Three heads in a row do not predict that four tails will come next. Those are all equivalent to the random candlestick and indicator patterns that most people use. Random patterns in random data. If however, five heads in a row appeared every day at 8am that would mean something. It would be like I started using a heavily biased weighted coin just that time of day. This kind of pattern is is a signal that could not happen in random data. It's meaningful and I've identified that. Not simply because it's five heads in a row. Five heads in a row will appear elsewhere in that random data as well. I've identified it as signal. By using triangulation that I talked about earlier, I've analyzed another layer of information. In this case, that additional layer is the time component. Valid, meaningful patterns in trading are ones which have a greater than 50% probability of resulting in conditions which can be exploited for profits to make a profit we need three things. One, you need the price to move. You can't make money if the price doesn't move away from your entry. Two, the move has got to be of sufficient magnitude to exceed trading costs. So at the very basic level, if the spread is, let's say, four points and the price only moves two points, you can't make money. The move has got to exceed the spreads and the commissions that you're paying. The bigger the move, the better, hence why trains are so desired. And three, there must be sufficient liquidity to execute your order. There has got to be someone willing to take the other side of your trade at the price and the size you want. You can't take advantage of the first two points if there's no liquidity. Picking the price direction is not a requirement. If this is my starting point, and I know that the price is likely to move away from there, usually about 100 points, I don't need to know which direction I can buy. And if the price goes down instead of up, I just close out with, let's say, a 10 point loss. But if it does go up, I leave it open until it goes the 100 points that I expect that it normally does in that period. And on that basis, I only have to be right 10% of the time and I'm still going to be profitable in a 20 day trading month. I can lose 18 of those days and I'm still going to be profitable. So meaningful patterns in the market should identify when the price is more likely to move. And with sufficient magnitude and liquidity. Simple chart patterns that traders use don't tell you anything meaningful about those three conditions. They focus on direction, which is not a requirement. A Fibonacci level does not tell you if the price is more likely to move, nor anything about whether someone is willing to trade with you. Neither does Elliot wave down lines, trend lines, support and resistance lines, candlestick formations, moving averages, channels, fractals, or any of the other typical technical analysis patterns that traders use. Those patterns will appear just as frequently in random data as they will in market data. And they are not in any way predictive by themselves. They cannot distinguish between signal and noise. They are no more likely to predict the next price move than four heads in a row is likely to predict the next coin flip. But unfortunately, those patterns do exist and they repeat. And they are going to be right 50% of the time, just like a coin flip. And the fact that they can appear to be right 50% of the time is what causes so much pain, frustration and Paranoia for traders. When it works, it reinforces your belief. When it doesn't, you look for blame and excuses. I mean, how many times have you heard people complain that the market didn't do what it was supposed to do? In fact, Long Term Capital Management did exactly that when they were in the process of losing close to a trillion dollars over a two month period. The Nobel Prize winners that headed up that fund actually said precisely that. They blamed the market for not doing what their indicators predicted it should do. That is insane. But it demonstrates this human fallacy. It affects even the most intelligent of us. A simple rule to remember is if the pattern that you're using can just as easily be found in random data, it's noise. Stop relying on it. You don't need to predict the direction you you need to identify conditions that are favorable for making profits. One of the best definitions of trading I've ever heard is it's not about trend prediction, it's about trend exploitation. And there are patterns that do signal those more favorable conditions that we can exploit. Increases in volume this chart shows you the hourly volume in the British pound. That's a pattern that you would never see in random data. It's too uniform and predictable. The highs are followed by the lows, followed by the highs, followed by the lows with near perfectly spaced predictability. The low volume is during the Asian market hours and the high volume is during the European and US market hours. Guess which period is going to be easier to make a profit in. You'll see a similar pattern when it comes to the size of price moves. But prices typically move in a narrow sideways range during the Asian market hours and they expand to much bigger moves during the European and US trading. That's a repeating and predictable pattern. And guess which period is easier to profit from. Liquidity follows a very similar pattern. It's very low in Asia and very high in Europe. The latter is much easier to make money in than the former. These patterns not only repeat, they are also predictable. You can take advantage of these with regularity. You would never see that kind of thing in random data. And that differentiates this as signal instead of noise. Other meaningful patterns are imbalances in the depth of market liquidity between the bid and the offer side. Price is always more likely to move in the direction of least liquidity. Also, you've got imbalances in demand from the customer buying and selling volumes. Some markets provide that Level 2 information that will show you the sizes of orders that are pending and have been executed. That is meaningful information. It's not noise. For example, this big green candle. Many people will tell you that means something, it's bullish, buyers are in control, whatever. But in actual fact, it tells you absolutely nothing. Have I taken a screenshot from a real chart or is this another random coin flip chart? You can't tell, can you? But if by the side of that candle you had information telling you that either there was an imbalance of customer orders or an imbalance of liquidity depth, you can now identify this as signal rather than noise. You've used triangulation, you've added another layer of information. Volatility is also a reliable pattern because volatility is not random. Volatility clusters, extreme moves are followed by more extreme moves is definitely something you can easily take advantage of. And finally, you've got seasonal differences in certain markets, news releases, and even correlations between related markets. Some markets lead and others follow. All of the above are real, meaningful signal patterns. They do not appear in random noise data. Now let me just flash up some charts and I want you to decide how confident you are as to whether these are real markets or if it's coin flip data that I've produced. Pause the video on each one if you want to and rate them from 1 to 10. 1 meaning you have absolutely no idea and and 10 meaning you are completely certain and you are willing to bet a lot of money on it. So here's a chart with a decent head and shoulders pattern. Is that real or fake? Here's another slide with some Fibonacci retracements, another with support and resistance lines drawn on it, and some plain old fashioned candlestick charts. With any of those, would you be willing to risk your money to say that they were all fake, all real, or was there a mixture? What if I showed you this chart and I gave you the time to really analyze it? Would you be willing to place a trade on the right hand side for what's going to happen next? Really think about that, knowing that I've been showing you a mixture of real and random charts throughout this lesson and all of them look exactly the same with the same patterns. Would you be confident enough to tell me which are which? And would you back yourself with money? I'm going to guess that you wouldn't because you can't tell the difference between signal and noise on a chart like that. But the amazing thing is that is exactly what most traders do every single day. Now, I am not trying to tear down or rubbish certain styles of trading in favor of any other style. What I'M trying to do is separate fact from from fiction to show you what's valuable in trading and what's worthless. Remember that 98% of traders fail. You do not want to follow the crowd. Apophenia makes you see patterns that are meaningless and that can lead you down a path that is extremely complex and very confusing. Go and study Elliot Wave theory and you'll see just how complicated things can really get. And ultimately it doesn't help you at all. Facing up to this reality will simplify your trading. It will cut down on wasted time and it will free up your valuable cognitive energy to spend on something that will actually improve your bottom line far more quickly. Trading is about having a simple system, controlling your risk, exploiting trends. It's about probability and statistics, letting winners run, cutting losses, developing intuition, having self awareness and control over system one and reflecting on processes, not outcomes. It is not about layering more and more indicators and filters or decorating a chance to look complicated to impress your friends. It's not about predicting direction, all about being right or wrong, all about or winning and win rates and loss rates. It's not about being certain or just going with your gut or just being rational. And it's not about reacting to outcomes. This lesson's objective has really been to confront one of the biggest illusions in the world of trading. It will always exist because most people will actively seek any approach that feels technical whilst also helping them avoid the hard work like self awareness, self control and taking responsibility for all of their decisions. But trading is not about apophenia, however real or clever it feels. Trading should always be about getting back to the basics. And those basics are. Any method with a positive expectancy over a period of time will work as long as you give it enough time for the probabilities to balance out. The simpler the method you use, the better or in other words, the more complex it is, the less chance you are developing your intuition because you're just too busy. You're maxed out, doing irrelevant tasks and not paying attention. You need to consider who you are. What type of trader are you? Do you want to be and can be? You have to trade based on your personality to your strengths and weaknesses. Trading is a psychological game and that's why buy insistence from someone else is never going to work for you. It was designed for someone else, not you. And where the system that you do end up using be willing to grind it out over time. I know that doesn't sound fun, but it's reality. You've got to put in the time one foot in front of the other if you want to reap the rewards and whatever indicators or tools that you use. It is not about trend prediction. That's what the marketers and influencers will tell you and even the financial media might suggest, but it's not. It's about exploiting trends when they arrive. Now, if you are getting results in a dental or a micro account, but you're not able to replicate that in a live account with significant risk, then this difference equals the extent to which you are unable to manage Maladaptive System 1 processes. It means you've still got work to do. And lastly, if you really want it boiled down, trading is consistency, simplicity, probability, persistence and maintaining a low stress baseline. I will talk more about a low stress baseline in the next lesson when I cover the biology and physiology for enhancing trading performance. But for now, I mean if your life is stressful or at least you don't know how to leave it at the bill before you trade, then it is going to aggravate and affect your trading decisions when you trade with risk. I'll talk about how to handle that in the next video. So in terms of oversight, System one looks at chaos and it wants to identify patterns, shapes, bounces, breaks, waves and so on. It's trying to make sense of the confusion and remove the uncertainty. Your job is to accept and understand the illusion and the addictive nature of apophenia, triangulate the information with other sources to lower the importance of patterns overall and to make sure that you are altering your views to fit the facts and not the other way around. Now, I hope the information in this video will help you do all of this. The next lesson is about the biology of decision making, which basically means how our decisions are influenced and sometimes controlled by the chemistry in our brains and bodies in terms of a quick win and getting the fastest improvements in our trading performance and results. It's a really, really important video with a lot of actionable steps that you can take immediately. Make sure you click through to watch that as soon as you can. Thanks for your time today. If you've got any questions, leave a comment below and I'll see you in the next one.