A trader explains how to read market moves using volume profile and value area analysis instead of blaming banks for price swings. The method: watch for value building lower, spot sellers defending the high with weak volume, then short when price closes back inside the value area with rising volume.
I used to follow every conspiracy theory about how banks manipulate price. Turns out the answer was a lot simpler than that. Give me 30 seconds and I will show you what factually moves the markets. Step 1: Draw the volume profile over the session and find the value area. If value is building lower session after session, sellers are in control and the trend is bearish. Step 2: Wait for price to push above the value area high. Watch the volume bars. If volume is declining on that move up and you see absorption, sellers are stepping back in, forming a wall buyers cannot push through. The money isn't following price higher. Step 3: When price closes back inside the value area and the volume picks up, it means the party is going to still be inside of the range. That is your short. Stop goes above the high. Target is the value area low.
