Forget newstrading! THIS is the strategy of the trading world champion!

Forget news trading. You have to use only these two things for your news flow. You have to understand the markets very deep, and you have to understand the macroeconomic side. You have to use only two things, and I will explain you today what is very important for you. And who I am?

I'm Thomas Forwald.

I'm the Champions Maker. I teach and train a lot of traders like Christoph Radecker and especially my colleague and friend Patrick Nill, and I explained them How is the world working in trading? What are the real stuff you have to use for yourself? Trust in me, and I hope you like it.

Let's be honest with each other, none of us retail traders know in advance what news is going to be released. We don't really know that much about the markets except that we can see where money is flowing in and out. You can see that in the trading volume. I've explained that very extensively and frequently by now. But it's incredibly important to prepare for when economic news is going to be released. And for that, you can use any news ticker that provides that info. It's available for free all over the web. I'll show you that in just a moment. But what else is important? What's also important is being able to judge which economic news is truly market-moving. Because in those cases, you always have to understand the macroeconomic story behind it. Like right now, we have the issue with the war in Iran, or rather in the entire Middle East, and of course there's always a story behind it involving the scarcity of raw material prices. The Strait of Hormuz is essentially impossible to navigate. For whom is this a problem? And you have to think that through in depth. And I want to tell you a bit about that so you understand the stories behind it more deeply, because you simply have to know that many raw materials, including those in the chip sector and so on, are shipped specifically to Asia, and many countries like China face challenges if this lasts much longer because the reserves they have will eventually be depleted. And that's why a shortage is always a sign that markets will rise. Nothing special so far. Therefore, we must distinguish two things. First, there's news that is predictable and can be planned for. We can find those in the economic calendar, like part one, which I'm showing you now. Second, what stories are currently playing out in the market, and what kind of impact do they have on which asset classes? And then the question is always, can we actually trade these effects? No, we can't. I had a conversation yesterday with someone who said he trades vola structures, meaning volatility strategies, and he almost had his entire portfolio of over €300,000 blow up in his face because he couldn't foresee that volatility would explode or implode so abruptly. And therefore, you must always know exactly which products are sustainably tradable at what time and with what risks. Let's dive deeper into this. Look, here we have a very simple economic calendar. And for some, this might seem boring at first glance, but I can tell you, we always have to look at which news affects which country, which news affects which sectors. And you can see that beautifully. And if I know now, for example, when I click on more events, that oil inventories are being released today, then I want to know what impact that currently has on the corresponding asset. But for that, I need to understand which story is currently really active in the markets. And when I look at images like these here, I see crude oil. And none of us could have known beforehand that Trump, for example, would put out a message here that leads to such a movement. What we could see, however, was that there was a sell-off, there was balance, and that's a typical B structure. That it then pushes everything down like here, well, that's obviously not something you can plan for. And the question is always, what of that can we actually trade? I always say the following: it's much more exciting if you want to play it safe to be able to evaluate after such an event what comes next. What is the result of the news that came out there? And now there's point 1. And point 1 is a very important one, which is: political markets have short legs. What does that mean? Very often, political events, like the ones Trump tweets so frequently, are quickly negated or reversed by the market. Now comes number 2: what fundamental story, what macroeconomic connections are playing a role here right now? And of course, there's a lot of fear in the market and a lot of uncertainty. And this reaction from crude oil, for example, was ultimately due to the fact that Trump said he was having good talks with Iran and he's looking for a way to find a peaceful solution. And he pushed back the ultimatum to Iran regarding the bombing of power plants and so on. For the time being, all cool. But why does crude oil then relax?

So extremely?

And for that, you need to know the following: many, many hedgers have built up positions, and when the market falls below certain levels, there's usually an exaggeration because they're liquidated abruptly. And what happens after this exaggeration? You can see that really well here. Again, the market extremely corrects such a stretch. And if you take that in context with corresponding volume spikes, then you can quite well I'm looking for counter trades after a news event, for example, and you'll never get them at the very bottom. But here, for example, we see a wonderful inside bar. That's nothing more than a consolidation point after a fast movement. After that comes the reaction upwards, and very often such reactions go back to the origin of the alpha movement. What do I mean by that? The origin of this movement was this right here. And then the market runs back. Often these are V reversals, because in these moments there's no foundation where large market participants have accumulated for a long time, so the market can just go back. Therefore, it's always important to check it off once the reaction has occurred, check if there's an overreaction, check what the volumes are like, and then simply look at the original value. First, try to trade a path back to that point, and that is very, very effective, and it helps us tremendously Let's take a further look. Here we have the DAX future, for example, which I chose quite deliberately. And here you can also see how the market established a range. So it was quite far down, and then there was a collection point. And here, many market participants had the opportunity to enter their positions in order to participate accordingly. And now one could say, well, everyone knew that would happen. No, nobody knew that, except maybe Trump and 3 others. And now, once again, what's crucial here is what followed that reaction. After that reaction, a sideways phase occurred. And during this sideways phase, volume was accumulated once again. You can see that very clearly down here as well. A lot of trades were executed here. This volume here, well, that wasn't something we could have planned for. And now the question is always, what comes next? And for that, you just have to look a bit deeper and simply understand the PBD logic. And see if it goes back in. If so, they accept these prices, and then there's a high probability it will go up. If we stay below, we take the whole thing away again. And that's how I do it. I always try to explain the stories to myself. And that's why I think it's very, very important to correctly evaluate fundamental events. And if we think macroeconomically, what is actually the main story being played out right now? It's inflation. Because the longer the Strait of Hormuz remains closed, the higher the probability of raw material shortages and the higher the probability that we will see inflationary increases. And when that happens, the investment clock is no longer in a state of stability. Instead, it moves into the next phase, and it's quite possible that major reallocations will take place, and those will then persist over a longer period of time. And therefore, always look deep into which story is being played out and how long it will last. And are the political markets that ultimately reflect these effects sustainable, or are they just these flashes in the pan that give us these wonderful V reversals? I hope this has helped you a bit and given you a deeper insight. What do I find crucially exciting about the news that is currently being played out? I could go on and on about how you shouldn't necessarily trade during clear news release times, but I think it's It's much more important for you now to see how you can dig a little deeper to figure it all out for yourself. And when unpredictable movements occur, always wait to see what happens next. Does a V reversal follow, or does a balance form? There are very big differences in terms of evaluating what comes next. And yeah, I hope this has helped you. Feel free to leave a like and recommend our channel if you enjoyed this. Thank you very much for your time.