Gamma: The Powerful Force Moving Markets

Andrew Rader (Kardec Trader) explains how options gamma — the acceleration of delta — shapes market behavior because market makers hedge option exposure with the underlying. The talk contrasts positive-gamma zones (range-bound, condensations where dealers sell into rips and buy dips) with negative-gamma zones (directional, explosive moves where dealers buy into strength and sell into weakness). Rader shows how to map gamma exposures (30-day/monthly focus), identifies gamma-flip pivot strikes (example: 537.50), gives VIX-dependent rules of thumb, and presents OPEX timing rules (shakeout and "max pain" windows) to predict when behavior changes. He closes with examples applying option-flow detection to individual tickers and promotes his Radar Report research product.
Questions this video answers
537.50
Next 30 days (monthly expiration) — the monthlies (30-day) have the most positioning, per speaker.
Shakeout: ~10 calendar days before monthly expiration; Max-pain/pinning window: ~3 calendar days before monthly expiration (3 to 10 days before).
Shakeout: ~30 calendar days before quad-month expiration; Max-pain/pinning window: ~14 calendar days before expiration.
Have you ever noticed as a trader that during certain times and levels that the behavior of the markets actually change? And no, I'm not talking about does it just go up or down. I'm talking about how it goes up and how it goes down. Is price action more explosive or does it tend to go and fall back into a range? Well, there's actually a really powerful reason to why this happens. And if you understand it as a trader, you can exploit it as I have over the last several years. And that reason is positive and negative Gamma. If you understand these two, not only how to apply them, but what they are conceptually, you will be able to spot not only when in the market that the behavior will likely change, but also where and how you should be trading into these different zones. Believe me when I say a lot of you guys are gifted traders, but you're taking the wrong trades at the wrong time. And understanding these today will allow you to take the right trade at the right time. My name is Andrew Rader, and as I make my way to the professional trading space this year, I wanted to share a few of the different concepts that got me to where I am today. Specifically today, I'm going to be breaking down the concept of negative versus positive gamma and how it influences the market, but also what tools I use to see it and how I actually apply it to the world. And towards the end of this video, I'm even going to show you a strategy I use in parallel with what I'm showing you today that utilizes live order flow to spot how certain option orders are going to directly change the behavior of an individual stock. So whether you're a beginner or a pro, I think you will find some value in the concepts that I show you today. All I ask of is your attention. And let's get started. Now, a lot of people try to overcomplicate this subject of Gamma and options Greek, which is why oftentimes it's a barrier for people to actually learn it. People are scared away from these scary words of Gamma Delta Theta. These different words scare people and they are somewhat complex. So people just like, I don't want to learn it. But let me tell you that whether you trade options or not, you need to know this because it's moving markets whether you know it or not. So you might as well know it and understand it so that you can benefit from it and know exactly how a market's going to move. So with that being said, what is gamma? Well, gamma is just simply a measurement. It's a Measurement of what? It's a measurement of delta. It's the acceleration of delta. And what is delta? It's just basically how much you're getting paid for this option contract. How much is the option contract going up? So you can see right here, from this kind of curve, you can see that delta is kind of this exponential curve up. You should know from math class that exponential curves are not linear and therefore they have some sort of acceleration to them. And you can see right here, that right here, boom, you see it's starting to go up and up, the slope is increasing and thus the acceleration is also. As soon as that option goes in the money though, you can see it starts to decelerate. The curve goes from curving upwards to now curving flat. And that is why you see it decelerate. So an option that goes in the money, it starts to decelerate. Now again, gamma is a measurement and why that's important, it's not because we're going to go to the options chain and not because we're going to go stare at a gamma level all day or gamma number on a screen, right? We're not going to go pull up an option and go, oh, look at this gamma. It's 0.25. That's, that's not what we're doing here. The reason we want to understand these measurements is because certain entities in the market are particularly looking at these to make market decisions. And their market decisions directly influence how the market actually moves, when it moves. And ultimately that's where we exploit this process as a trader. So what are those entities? Who are they? Well, they're the market makers. The market makers are people who provide liquidity in the market. They're the guys I want to buy an option, they're there, they're going to get it to me. If I want to sell an option, they're there to get it to me. Their job is to literally do anything I want. And by doing so, they're in the business of providing liquidity. They're non directional, meaning they're not making discretionary bets. They're not sitting here going, I think the stock's bullish. No, they're just pleasing the public. They're people pleasers. If public wants to buy a bunch of puts, they're there to sell it to them. And it's their job to balance that. Right? There is still risk to them. And so therefore they have to go balance this risk that they have of selling or buying different options. And what is that risk? Well, it's going to Be measured through the option. Greeks like Delta and Gamma, they're looking at these and they're going, hey, I have this amount of calls, I have this amount of puts. I need to balance it with this. And what do they balance it with? They balance it with shares with the underlying, right. So if I'm selling options on Spy, right, I'm going to have to go and I'm going to buy or sell shares on the underlying, the stock. And so you're like, well, wait a second, rater. So you're telling me that the options market actually has an impact on the stock market? Yes, it is one of the biggest liquidity providers to the market and one of the biggest reasons now why it moves. And we can see this by the average daily volumes over the last 25 years, you've seen this exponentially grow. And it continues to grow. And with this huge growth in option volumes, hopefully you can see where I'm going with this. Comes in increasing grip of the options market on the equity market. So market makers are more important than ever in that their impact on the underlying is increasing. So if we can understand the measurements that they're looking at, kind of quantify them, maybe know exactly where these levels of Gamma and Delta are highest, then we can ultimately know what the market maker is going to do and ultimately two, when they're going to do it. Because options expire, so we both get a time and we get a place, which is incredibly powerful. So how can we be practical with this concept? Right. It sounds extremely attractive to say, hey, you know, if we can spot where the big players are moving and how they're going to move, then we can trade off them. But how do we actually apply this to the real world? Well, this takes us to now the concept of positive and negative gamma, positive acceleration. Negative acceleration is basically, you know, the two different terms to describe whether a market maker. And again, we're taking this from the perspective of the market maker. We don't care what R Delta is, we don't care what R Gamma is. Necessarily. What we're trying to do is look at how these big entities are, you know, susceptible to these different changes in the market and where they're likely to take action. Right. Where are their sensitivities, where are their vulnerabilities? That's what we're trying to find and how we can expect price to move around that. So right here you can see right here we have a positive gamma level and it's negative gamma level. The most common, you know, kind of idea is that buying calls and puts from a market maker perspective. Again, everything we talk about today is from a market making perspective, right? We don't care. You and I aren't going to have enough capital to move the markets. But from the market making perspective, right, if a market maker is buying or buying calls, right, the public is selling them, he's going to start buying calls from them or even puts. This creates that environment of positive gamma. That what you see right here is that, okay, what do you see typically price action do around these positive gammas? Well, it's very simple. As a stock starts to increase into this area of positive gamma, the market maker is ultimately going to be selling against it. Now, I apologize, this arrow is horrendous. But he's going to be selling against it as it goes higher. So it actually creates this kind of resistance area or this area where the markets kind of become trapped. And so he's going to start selling against it. However, as it starts to go back down, he's going to start buying against it as well. So in a market that's positive gamma, you expect it to be a lot of selling pressure, but ultimately you do expect it to kind of be more trapped that as it goes higher, the deltas, his deltas in the market are basically increasing and therefore as they increase, he's going to have to sell shares to get back to neutral. So this creates kind of an area where you start to see it become trapped. Okay, so the next area, negative gamma. What environment does this create in the market? Whenever you see negative gamma in the market, this creates what we call kind of more directional movements. So when a market is, you know, engulfed in negative gamma, you often see very directional swings that as price goes down below this area, the market maker is going to continue to sell shares. And as it goes back above, he's going to keep buying shares. So it ultimately creates this kind of more directional, very volatile, very explosive price action around these negative gamma environments. So you can see hopefully now as a trader, why this would be important, right? If we can spot positive gamma and negative gamma areas, then we can kind of make a game plan that, hey, you know, I'm not expecting these huge, massive explosive moves. Instead I'm expecting it to be reversed and to see the dip get bought up and to see the, the rip get sold off around this positive gamma environment. So that's really powerful to see it. So how do we actually go see that? Well, you need a tool such as I built on the radar report that can show you where gamma is now. Gamma is kind of a measurement. Of course open interest is included in that. But gamma is kind of taking, you know, a lot of they call this jacks, which is total gamma exposure. And what they'll do is kind of calculate, hey, this is what the dealer's kind of exposure is to these levels or here's where he's likely to be exposed the most on these levels. And you can see right now on the markets that we have negative gamma past this area here and we also have positive gamma up here. This is the most common way to display Gamma in the markets. In the way I have it set, I built on the rate report is the next 30 days. I believe that you always want to include a monthly expiration because that is where majority of positioning, majority of hedges, majority of, of funds are positioning on that 30 day expiration. The monthlies have the most money on them. So I always look for that 30 day out. And what you look here is you'll notice these kind of bar graphs. These are direct basically estimations or calculations of how much Gamma is kind of on that level. And thus if we know how much gamma, then we know kind of the market maker's game plan that he's the guy who's providing the liquidity on this area. So he's the one who's most susceptible to, to this area. He's the guy who's going to have to take action around these areas. So knowing that concept of positive and negative gamma, you can kind of build a game plan that well, wait a second, these positive gamma strikes, what do we expect? Well, we expect that they ultimately get sold off, off the rips and then off the dips. They eventually kind of get bought up. At least that's the assumption. Right. And then as it goes down into these bigger negative gamma strikes, you can expect that, well, it's going to get a lot more explosive, that if you do gap down below or push below one of these big negative gamma strikes, it's likely to cause way more selling pressure. And then likewise, if you start to get bought up again, it's going to cause that aggressive bounce, really V shaped reversal off the low, very explosive price action. So in most environments, right, that this negative gamma area is really what favors swing trades, those longer intraday holds. While the positive gamma is what favors scalps. That if you can identify these areas, it's like, hey, I should be scalping around here. I shouldn't necessarily be swing trading long or short because that's going to be a tougher trade. Now all around you can see right here, there's a standard deviation, standard deviation, and then there's a gamma flip. This jacks flip is where from a standpoint of the dealer, it flips from negative to positive, positive to negative. These are always going to be pivot areas. And this is where you can expect a major change in the market behavior. Oftentimes you'll see a mega gap up or a big pivot off of this level and then the environment changes once again. So if we look at the chart here,538, you can see that that the negative gamma area started kind of below. If we look at this screenshot again, you can see below the kind of 537 strike right here. And you can see the exact Gamma flip is 537.50. And if we look at that right here on the chart, you can see that's 537.50. And you can see from that area, kind of in the past when we've gapped underneath of that, right, We've had explosive moves. So you can see right here, if we kind of map that level out, 5, 3750, we've had explosive moves in and around this. This level has caused these pivots and change in dynamics before. And you can also see based off current expectations, well, we're kind of in this positive gamut environment. So what do you expect from the market? Well, you expect that the dips get bought up and the rips get sold off. And that's exactly what you're getting into this positive area. Look, gap up, sell off off the open. Once you sell off, you start to get bought up again. So we can spot when the behavior of the market is changing and thus know what trades are more likely to work out in our favor in this case in this environment. Scalps, right. We're not going to want to swing trade long, especially into these positive gamma environments necessarily because it doesn't favor those big moves. Now many of you might be wondering, hey raider, why is it that a market maker is doing what's the difference between positive and negative gamma? Right. Why is a market maker buying shares as it goes higher here, but he's buying shares as it goes lower here? Well, it's very simple. It's just how they hedge these different options. When a market maker is selling puts, what he's going to do is as it goes lower, he has to sell or short shares, right? So if he sells puts and he's the guy who short the put in the public is long, the put Then that means that he is going to have to sell shares as it goes lower. And if, you know, it starts to go up, then the put loses value, which means he needs less hedges, which means he starts buying back shares because he has to exit his short position. So that's kind of the logic behind that. And then likewise with this, as it goes higher, he has to sell shares because he is long the call. And then if he's, if it's going down right, then he has to buy shares as it goes lower. So it's all about maintaining neutrality. And that's why you see these impacts on the underlying and why negative gamma and positive gamma create different reactions. It's because whichever options the market maker is having to deal with, whether it's him long the option or the most of the time it's him selling the option, then he's going to have to take a different action. In the market in general, the two most common flows are going to be the public selling calls and then the public buying puts. Which means what? Which means that the market maker is going to be long calls and he's also going to be short puts or selling puts. Right? So these are the two most common flows, or at least this is again from the perspective of the market maker perspective. Right? This is the market maker. He's going to be long the call and he's going to be short the put. Now why are these the two most common kind of flows? Well, obviously when a public is buying puts, it's because the world is long. And when the world is long, they're like, hey, you know, I have all these shares and I'm hoping to go up one day in my IRA account. So I'm going to go buy a put to hedge the downside risk that is the most common flow in the market. And the other one is of course the public selling calls because they do that to kind of collect premium and offset some of the drawdowns and things like that. So selling calls is the like number two flow you will see in the markets. And so therefore the most common exposures for a market maker are long call and short puts. Which is why in most cases a large area of calls is going to be a resistance area and a large area of puts is going to be a support area just based off of that or potentially even, like I said, if it does get really bad, it can sell through that. So overall, if you look at like these big support levels down here, yes, these negative gamma levels can say that we could sell right through it. And cause this big explosion. But the time you get by the time you get down to it, it's often a support level. So that's something we have to note. Now common practices with this chart are number one, I always map out the gamma flip level. This is where you expect the market behavior to change. And I would note that hey, this is where it flips from positive to negative. Above here. I also do mark out the largest negative gamma areas or at least take note of them. They often are correlated to of course the open interest levels. That if you look, you know, 525 is obviously going to be a massive area of open interest. That's just how it is. And you can see like for example right here, 525 and all these puts down here. So these are going to be big levels of correlated to those gamma levels as well. So what I like to do is of course map out the biggest levels. Say hey, take note of 525. That could be a big area and also the biggest kind of area of positive gamut as well. So what I like to do is first map out the positive versus negative gamma environments. So right here I would like to say, you know, this is a little bit of positive game, a little bit of negative. But it doesn't really start to pick up till right here. So542, I'm going to take my thing here and I'm going to go to 542 right around here and maybe we could even go to 539. So let's just do that. So 539 to 542 all the way up to 5, I believe 50. This is so all the way to 550. This right here is a massive positive gamma zone. So that means that as we get closer to this, as we start to hover around it, we expect what? Well remember the drawing that I just showed you that as you go higher into it, market makers are going to be selling against it. Thus you expect kind of a trapped range. And is it a coincidence that as soon as you've got up to this environment, look how Price Action behaves. The smallest intraday moves are all around this area. Look at how tight this is, the two day range by the way, look how tight it is versus as you've gotten further away from it and as you start to go to the negative gamma environments which typically starts right around here, 530 to 525 and below. So what I'll do is I'll take my zone here and I'll Go. Okay, so around 525 and below and I'll just kind of map out this all the way to, let's just say 550, 15. That's kind of the big zone where negative gamma really starts to pick up. And you could go all the way down to that standard deviation, which is like 498 and say, hey, this is where you can expect a lot of, a lot more intraday moves. And that's exactly what you got. Look at this, right? If you map out these two zones, mentally or physically, you can see that, well, hey, if we do break down off of that 544, 550 and we do start back into that 520, negative gamma is going to increase by a lot and that's going to cause big fluctuations in price. And look at on this chart the biggest fluctuations in price. The most aggressive moves were in and around this negative gamma area where the price being pinned was around the positive gamma areas. Now it is worth noting that gamma levels work better or worse based off where the VIX is in the markets. And this is very simply explained because in a higher VIX environment you have lower liquidity, which means you expect different reactions around positive and negative gamma. So here are a few different rules that you can follow. The first general rule of thumb to follow is if Vix is over 30, you expect negative gamma levels in the market to act less like support levels. Why is that? Because in a market that's over 30 Vix liquidity is often very scarce. And that means that the negative gamma environments are often bigger pivot levels where you actually expect stronger sell through and stronger buy through at the same time. So it's less of a support zone in very high VIX environments. And on the flip side of the coin, if Vix is under 30, as a general rule of thumb that when markets come down into that negative gamma level, then you expect a stronger reaction to the upside more consistently. The reason being is when VIX is lower, liquidity is improving in the market and thus the market maker is ultimately supporting trend. Now rules around positive Gamma. In a Vix over 5:30, positive gamma levels are often more dramatic in how they condense price. Why? Because when the Vix is over 30, liquidity is very poor in the markets. And what often happens is when you get into this positive gamma environment where again a market maker is selling on the way up and he's buying on the way down, this improves liquidity naturally. And so you expect that range to condense much faster than many suspect. So going from 10% days like we've seen on SPY recently, to all of a sudden a 1% day. Having that 10x condensing like that is really only possible in very illiquid markets. That's not to say that the ranges are smaller, but you expect more dramatic changes in the ranges around positive gamma levels when the Vix is over 30. Now, in positive gamma with a Vix under 30, there's no special rule for this one because you do just expect it to be bought up and sold off. But it's going to be less dramatic than previous price action. As a Vix over 30 positive gamma is, if you haven't figured it out already, negative gamma favors those swing trades intraday or maybe over a multi day period, while big positive gamma environments favor those range trades in scalp trades. So far in this video I've shown you gamma levels and what to expect around certain areas in the market beyond just support and resistance, but the actual behavior of how price action will move because of these bigger market entities who are controlling these different flows. But let's talk about when. Is there a time frame? Is there a knowing of exactly when we can expect these changes in behavior? There absolutely is, and it just has to do with how Gamma changes into expirations. See, one of the biggest pieces to this puzzle that often many people overlook is that options don't just keep the same values. Time is always passing and thus the value of these different options are changing as well. You're not going to pay the same amount for an option that expires in a year than you are for one that expires in two days. Well, knowing that, we can understand that. Well, if gamma affects how the dealer positions, then you're telling me, Raider, that over time that the gamma and basically the dealer's position is going to have to change as well. Yes. And so what you can see right here is days coming into expiration. You can see the longer the expiration, the lower the gamma. And as you get closer and closer to an expiration that the gamma levels actually change, they increase. And thus the sensitivity of how a dealer is going to react, how a market maker is going to react to different changes in the flows increases that hey, if there's a $2 price movement now, they're going to have to do a lot more than they did back here with this 197 days to expiration. So we can actually pinpoint exactly where you expect a change in behavior before it actually happens. And that gives you a tremendous risk to reward advantage of not Only knowing how to adapt your trades, how to take profit, when to enter even a new trade. But all of these things can be achieved by understanding this one principle concept of time and how it affects the dealer's positioning. And so through my research, I found through OPEX cycles, as I call them, or options expiration cycles, that there is almost a specific date ahead of an expiration where you will see dealers reposition and cause major pivots in the market. Now, I do have a more in depth video on OPEX cycles on my YouTube channel. I'll throw it up on screen if you want to watch it after this. But the summary is this. What you want to do is pull up a chart of spy, qqq, whatever, pull up some sort of index. What you want to look at is mark down a vertical line on every third Friday of the month. That is the monthly expiration, where the most money for that month is likely to expire. And what you want to do is you want to go to, you know, these different dates and there's different rules for them. So first of all, every month outside of March, June, September and December is a normal month, okay? And so what you would do for those months, those normal months outside of March, June, September and December is you simply want to take a date, price, date range and take three days before. Three calendar days. Three calendar days, not three bars, three calendar days before that. This is going to mark your max pain. Okay? So this is a phase in the market where dealers sensitivity to gamma gets so high that any little movement in the market is likely to cause some sort of reversal. So it causes some sort of pin. And then you want to take this and go 10 calendar days before. So you want to go from three to 10. This can sometimes be seven or nine, but three to 10, I like to do 10. And what you can do here is this is the start of the shakeout phase. This is where you start to see the first initial shift in dealers starting to reposition 10 days before a market expiration. Outside of March, June, September and December, you can expect a big shift in dealer positioning and then also three days before you expect the max pain phase to start. Now, what are the characteristics of this, the shakeout phase, which starts 10 days before you expect some sort of fake out one direction or the other? You can see obviously here we had this massive move down, you had this big move higher. That was the fake out, it was downside. And then you had this reversal here. Again, these are big pivot levels there where you expect the behavior of the market to dramatically change where gamma levels, where dealer sensitivity to options changes dramatically. And therefore they must reposition. This is the shakeout phase. Then you go to max pain. Max pain. The most common structure during this is something like this. Where you have a move higher. Then you have some sort of pin enclosed in the middle. Or move lower than somewhat of a pin and close in the middle. This is because dealer sensitivity gets so strong that day of expiration. You can see not much action is happening here. It's going down. It pivoted. Yes, but these kind of moves are slowing down from this previous trend. Right. That they're starting to pin it back to equilibrium and get it there. So dealer sensitivity changes. And again, you can do this on any month, anytime. And you will see how amazing this works. Now, for every other month, for the four months that I mentioned, March, June, September and December, what you want to do is you want to take this date and extend it to roughly 30 days before. And then what you want to do is you want to take the Max Payne. And you're going to extend it to 14 calendar days before. So it's 14 and 30, 30 as your new levels. And these are where you can expect changes in price action dynamics. Again, look almost to the day. You had the top of the market form on this. This was before quad witching. 30 days before quad witching again. March, June, September, December. These have a new rule. Shakeout phase is the same. You expect some sort of fake out. You did. And right here you have the max pain. This is where dealers start to change their positioning. Because again, as you near expiration gamma in their sensitivity to these options increases. So the same little $1 move you get right here. You can see move $1 to the left. It's barely a change in game over here. See how the slope is very shallow versus here you have a $1 change. You're going from 0.07 all the way down to maybe even 0.05. That's a.02 change here. You didn't even change 0.0001. Right. So the huge change in gamma sensitivity ahead of such a big expiration. You can expect changes the dynamic of the price action. And you can see here, typically scalps work better. Swing trades typically are less favored during max pain. And it's more about the reversal trade. Betting on the reversal. Quick scalps up, things like that. And you can go through in history and do this over and over and over again. December 20th, this was a quad witching month. So what do we do we do 30 days before like this. And that's 31 days. You would do 30 days before and then you do 14. So we're going to take this, we're going to go 14 days before. And you can see right here, these are our two pivot levels. What happened? The dynamic of the price action changed. We had some sort of fake out boom right here to the downside. Then we had that upside reversal. This was where you typically want to play your swing trades, right? The shakeout phase is where the swing really works. Because this is typically where a lot of that negative gamma is. It's typically where dealers aren't quite as worried about pinning the stock yet because their gammas are still less sensitive. So there's more range in the market. And then once you get to Max Payne, this is where scalps really improve. So scalps are really profound and they can get a lot of profit here typically in these max pain. So this is how you can better time the gamma levels. It's something that I use in hand with the gamma levels themselves to not only know when the price action behavior of the market is going to change, but where, right? Oh, by the way, you know this 548 level has really high positive gamma coming into Max Payne. Let's scalp this. Let's short the rips and buy the dips. Let's do that into Max Payne. That's the environment. So the power of this tool, not only of knowing positive versus negative gamma, but also OPEX cycles is you know exactly how a market's going to react before it reacts. Right. It's like being a good parent. If your kid's upset and you give it ice cream, you know he's going to be happy with that. He's going to be less upset. We know this already before it happens. And so that creates predictable outcomes that we can ultimately exploit as traders. And to show you that this is actually a leading concept that we can pull future looking ideas and trade ideas from, I want to show you guys what I put on the report. If you guys don't know, I am the founder of the Radar Report. This is a research publication that I report every single week. And it's a really deep and professional dive into the markets, trade ideas, everything else. And one of the things that I put in the just a few weeks ago, two weeks ago specifically was how I thought that the markets were going to slow down. My entire thesis was that we were expecting a slowdown into the week of April 13th. We just came off a 10% day in spy. And it's likely that the markets overall would be very uneventful for the next few days as there would be catastrophic rebalancing. And so what I mentioned here specifically with OPEX Cycles was that there was really a lot of this huge implied volatilities. And that if these were to start getting crushed, then implied volatilities would start to cool off a little bit, thus improving liquidity. Thus this positive Gamma would start to take more effect and really condense the range. As we mentioned, right. Vix was still over 30 in this case. And in Vix over 30 with positive gamma, you expect a condensing of the range. Like I mentioned before, more. And we talked about the PIN move. It would start around April 15th that you expect. Again, whichever way this market moves, it would likely be reversed. And I said right here that based off of this, I'm betting on a reversal of the initial expansion, if there is any. And if we go look at spy, what happened? How did that play out? You can see that we did have an initial expansion following that week. Right? The expansion was down and ultimately it got reversed into that Monday. Into that following Monday. So this was when you expected Max Payne on the 15th to start right here. This was the change in dynamic. But we ultimately expect Max Pain to be reversed. Right. That during that phase we expect dealer sensitivity to get very sensitive. And it's going to cause a reversal. Like we said, the most common structure is some sort of move higher and then a pin in the middle or some sort of move lower and then pin in the middle. Right. That is the most common structures. And that's exactly what we're playing out today. And even this week, my thesis was that because of that we would see some sort of move back up to this 548 based off of it, which is exactly what we got. So really strong leading ideas we can get from that. And that's something that I publish and really talk about in these reports along with the best trades that I believe will follow in suit because of this. So we've covered a lot of bases in this video. But one thing I do want to touch on, and I did promise at the beginning, is how I've actually taken this understanding, this broader knowledge that, you know, these dealers, they're out there, the market makers are out there. And they are kind of helping position markets overall. But actually being very specific with it, that if we can observe this phenomenon happen on broader markets like spy, QQQ in general. Right. The broad market, then there must be some impact that we can observe on individual tickers and even by spotting these different flows from the option flow and how real time gamma can affect them, that you can actually see bigger reactions on more vulnerable names. Individual stocks are not as big as spot is. Liquidity isn't as wide and deep. And so when you have certain flows on individual names, it can create a very big reaction on this stock. And so what I've actually done over the last few years is researched how to actually find certain criteria option flow orders that can create large reactions in the underlying because of what the market maker is likely to do based off of that order. So here's just one example that I posted on the radar report. This was back in January and this is just a clinical example of how I actually deploy this strategy. Again, I'm looking for individual flows and how these individual flows would cause the market maker to react upon the stock. And because these stocks are smaller than the overall market, still big, obviously multi billion dollar companies, but they're smaller that these flow orders have more, you know, potency and they're more able to move the individual stock dramatically just based off of this one order. So right here, this is what I call a hedge trade. And what I saw was placed was this 12734 put. It was very late in the sell off, which means if you do move down on this weekly, that you're likely to see some sort of buy the dip reaction. Why? Because when a market maker sells a put, assuming to this guy right here, it's a buy order based off being at the ask. And we can verify that through other means. But you can see that if the market maker is short to hedge this put he sold right as it goes down, we well, if it starts to bounce in any shape or form, the market maker is going to start losing, you know, the puts he sold, they're going to start losing value. And therefore the market maker needs less hedges, which means he starts to buy back shares. Remember he shorted shares to initially hedge them. He's going to start buying them back, which means that now we have a trend that's created or a trend that's supported by the market makers. And so this was a buy the dip opportunity. You can see right here, Airbnb right here, big aggressive bounce right off that zone. And this was something that we, we captured even outperforming SPY during this time frame. And you can see during this time, of course being in early January of 28, that the Vix during this time frame was less than 30. And so in this environment, you expect negative gamma levels to be the sharper reactions, as I said earlier in this video, in which case this was it created negative Gamma off of that 127 area and that created that sharper reaction that we look for now. This form of analysis is something that I've pioneered and hopefully that it will take me very far in my professional trading career, which I am actually starting this year. So as I bring you along with my professional trading journey, I hope to continue to be able to share my research trade ideas in the live data tools that I build on my platform called the Radar Report. This is where I publish monthly reports, weekly reports and even seasonal reports where I break down where the money is flowing and even professional trade ideas in reviews of the volatility surface and markets in general. There is a 14 day free trial right now and you guys can go sign up with the link below. Again, it's absolutely free for 14 days or just type in theradoreport.com and it'll come up. And if it's one thing that I promise, it's that you will be absolutely blown away with the quality and the ideas that I present. Hope to see you around guys. Bye bye.










